Hi all,
It is funny just last night i thought to myself. Hey haven't heard from Jump in awhile.
And then i log on to TC this morning and there he was. Missed him i guess.
Congrats to Beta and re-congrats to Jump for actually having paper in hand the "phd-ification".
LIG. If you are leaning towards waiting a year that is probably what i would do. However, it doesn't hurt to apply to schools. I myself am leaning towards waiting 1 more year for similar financial reasosn. However, will still likely go ahead with at least one or two apps.
Congratulations Dr. Jump!!!! (Should I capitalize your name now that you're a PhD?
Nothing like accomplishing something you've worked hard at for a loooong time to make you feel a giant weight off your shoulders. So will the dissertation be published as a book that we TCers could buy?!
Your parents must be so proud. Look how much you've accomplished since that life on the prairie!
As far as I know, none of the schools I'm applying to allow you to defer enrollment once you've been admitted. At least none of my top choices, anyway. An added wrinkle is that one of the schools I'm looking at, the University of Cincinnati, would probably have me starting classes in the summer rather than the fall, which would give me even less time to get my shit together. Probably best to wait another year and do things the right way.
I still plan on attending the open house in Cincinnati next month, though (I'll buy plane tickets tomorrow). If nothing else, it gives me a good excuse to escape NYC and head back home for a few days.
LiG - if you don't think that you'll be able to start classes next fall (or summer), wait a year before applying and focus on the now. there is also the correlation between the state of the economy and grad school applications. the way this fall is going, there will be a bumper crop of applicants similar to 2001.
wonderk, you could go even farther than the s&p 500 and look to the wilshire 5000 but the stock market isn't the point...that "shit" you refer to is only scary if you are one of the insiders of the washington-wall street axis who has everything to lose (and no real value to contribute). for the rest of us, it should be considered enlightening.
the stock market fluctuations have their biggest value to the media outlets who seem to love covering them and trying to stir their viewers into a frenzy of non-stop watching (similar to hurricane or storm weather coverage). it's kind of a misdirection play similar to magicians. the real story of the past month has been the fannie mae/freddie mac takeover...which added $5 trillion worth of obligations to the federal debt tab...and may very well be covering collateral fraud on the part of the US government. again, for those interested, more info here">http://solari.com/archive/housing_bill/]here[/url]
Congratulations dr.jump - thread central is getting smarter and smarter. Speaking of phd's anyone heard from aml recently? She must be busy with classes and her new environs.
Gin, if you can defer do it - otherwise I'd say wait a year and actively seek to get work done for your portfolio. Which is what I need to do now - again, feeling far too lazy for that. Worse that when I return home, I'll have to be actively looking for a job. I've been told by a few practice directors that I should not worry because I have the goods - though I still am. Sigh...
though I'm still smiling from this past weekend...yaw!!
Puddles,
While a i agree that the fluctuations of the market are not the real point, the current state of the financial and (other) markets are decent indictaors as to the underlying mess that is the current US economy. Yes the bailout may not have done more than help out (read; reassure) bankers and investors on Wallstreet that the government had their backs.
However, from eveyrthing i have been reading (especially the writings of John Robb and Nouriel Rabini et al who have been accurately predicting these events for at least 10-16 months) the credit mess is going to spiral further downwards and will at some point in the next year or less impact the "real" economy...
From everything I can tell, in 2-3 years the state of American economy and financial system are going to look drastically different than it does now or has for at least a decade or more. And regardless of America's lost power etc, where America's economy goes so goes the global one... I am hearing more and more people talk seriously of a 2-4 year GLOBAL recession. Whil perhaps earned and deserved not a good thing, IMHO.
While this may be revealing and necessary given the excess and problems inhenerent in current economic/financial structures.
I am certainly not looking forward to the changes/transformation in the near term.
Drastic changes are usual periods of significant readjustment (read; pain) to the economy and society. And not just the fat cats.
Personally i don't have land, savings or a stock of food and other essentials. So if things take even a relatively further downward turn my sense of stability/well being will be drastically affected.
you will have to make asian trip next time archi! your tour sounds brilliant so far.
thanks for congrats again all. it is nice to have it all official.
oddly enough i finished m.arch in sept. 2001 and that proved to be a fun year (not). it feels a little deja vu i must say. getting out of school and casting about for what to do next while the world seems to be doing pretty much the same thing is kind of strange. when i was a kid i thought the world knew what it was doing. it turns out the entire planet is as clueless as me. ;-)
Jesus christ that's funny! I LOL'ed at that, beta....
Congrats Dr. Jump. And thanks puddles and nam for such insight. I agree with you nam, and that's the part that scares me.
LIG, I think it's a good decision waiting....now is definitely not the time to put added financial pressure on yourself by applying for loans and making a bunch of checks out to universities for steep application fees. I met with a financial advisor last year and she told me to open an ING savings account online and have a little bit of money diverted to it every pay period. It was a good choice and I would encourage you to do the same, divert as much money as you can without crippling yourself for each month and you'll be surprised how quickly it adds up. Also it's hard to get to which makes it better for me, I don't know about you but if I have money I try to spend it.
Right now I think the best thing to do (for myself included) is conserve, save, and don't indulge in excess in general. There's just no extra money.....
Also, quickly, I think WonderKitty is sick. She may have a UTI. I'm going to try to see if she'll drink some cranberry juice before I drag her to the vet....
So, I just discovered that Johnny Walker will make custom labels for you for free. So, I filled out the info, and kept clicking continue, thinking it would tell me how much a bottle of scotch would be through their site, and instead, it just said Shipping labels, Allow 6-8 weeks. Whoops. I hope they only send one. I'm guessing its like a sticker that I apply to my own bottle? Good thing I didnt just type "hdfhadfhadksjfhadlfh" as the inscription.
DubK - Typically cats and dogs aren't big fans of the cranberry stuff. I read somewhere if they don't drink it you can always try mixing it in with their food. In any case, good luck with that.
Nam and DubK - I am in complete agreement with you. It ain't pretty out there right now. Best friend's grandmother has a good chunk o' change to her name. She banks with Wachovia. Yesterday she couldn't even buy groceries b/c her assets were temporarily unavailable. Time to hunker down for a long freeze.
Oh I almost forgot - Congrats Abra on getting the contract signed. That has got to be a very nice feeling.
I guess i am saying my concern isn't so much how we got here but rather where we are headed....
well then, i guess what i'm saying is that where we are headed is being steered by the same people who have placed us here to begin with. they have conducted this via opaque, illegal & sometimes criminal means while enriching themselves. are these really the people you want leading in leadership positions?
the times ahead are going to be hard, period. the question is, do you want to continue to be squeezed by their way of doing things...or would you rather do the hard work of cleaning out the rot & then establishing a foundation for the future. transparency & honesty should be the highest priority right now (but it won't be pretty).
and yes, i almost forgot to mention, but i am still alive
yesterday i was at get together with some financial type people (hopefully one will be client)...anyway, they are all expats of course, and talking abut how everyone getting canned here in tokyo is loathe to return to the states cuz the country is just too fucked up.
it is amazing and ironic to see how tokyo, the laughing post of financial circles for the last decade is now the place to be because the people here decided not to be such frickin morons with the trading....there are still jobs here even if your company has gone bankrupt.... but in new york? man that is NOT a place to be looking for work (at least not if you are from lehman bros)....
now only if that will turn to confidence with banks we'd be laughing.
puddles, i agree, transparency would be nice. i don't believe for a minute it will ever ever happen, no matter who is in charge. but it would be nice.
regarding that onion article about twisted sista. i actually met mark the animal mendoza when he was in one of my fave bands "the dictators" back when i was FastYoundAndScientific!!!their first album "the dictators go girl crazy" sold seven thousand copies. my friends and i owned six of them...
OK, this is probably so totally 1998, and idiotic to boot, but it made me laugh til tears came and my stomach hurt, and in honor of Dr. Jump, I have to post it!
Heh heh twisted sister always seemed like they enjoyed their rock life versus the other tortured souls you see doc/rockumentaries about.
In other news its wet and cold today in Cleveland. The sun whilst present my entire trip has decided to sleep in. And with it so have I, though being in all day is not my idea of a vacation.
Jump, I think an asia archinect meet-up would be awesome. However I must add that I felt gutted when you said you finished grad school in 01, like I did - you have produced a wealth of quality work in the interim my friend...I'm heineken green with envy.
So I'm here making dim sum (pre-packed amazing stuff from the chinese supermarket) and listening to Barry White.
LB, that guy must have awesome legs! I could never jump for that long.
About this financial mess, I have some questions, and everyone here seems much more level headed than on the other, more appropriate thread...
If its true that not bailing out the market will lead to no lending/no credit, wouldn't that be a good thing? WOuldn't it be better to live without credit. If people can't get loans for college, then people wont go to college, and the price of tuition will fall, thus allowing the price to come back to reality, and people can afford to go again. Same in other situations. Wasn't it the recesion from the 80s that led to such a credit heavy economy? I thought I read that in my recent US past class. Husband and I have been trying to get off credit for a while becuase we don't see it as a good thing. WOuldn't lack of credit teach people to save or do without?
credit runs business, whatever effects it might have on individuals. you could be right that a drying up of credit might help individuals kick bad habits but, in the meantime, it could also be very problematic for many small (or large, for that matter) businesses to keep going.
that said, i've heard enough economists argue that the crisis/catastrophe may be overstated - and give good reasons why - that i'm now thoroughly convinced that NOBODY KNOWS what will happen no matter whether the rescue bill goes through or doesn't go through.
i've learned enough now to decide to not have an opinion, despite what our presidential candidates say. i don't think the sky will fall, but i think - either way - things will be tight for the next few years.
It's on. I just booked my trip to Cincinnati. I'll be arriving late in the morning of Thursday the 16th, and I'll fly back to NYC the evening of Sunday the 19th.
Sarah, what Steven said is correct. In order to run businesses of any size, you need capital. Some businesses get this from investors, and some need to take out loans. My dad started his own business a few years ago and without loans they never would have been able to buy the equipment that manufactures their product. Small businesses are the foundation of this capitalistic country we live in.
Steven, you make a good point ... it's like global warming actually. No one is quite sure what will happen, but everyone knows that it's bad.
Further more it's highly unlikely that tuition, or rent, or other expenses of that nature, would ever go down. If the situation becomes so dire that large institutions or landowners actually reduce their fees/rent, then chances are that many people are already screwed and going to school is the last thing on their mind (after feeding themselves and having a roof over their head).
Regarding the "bailout," (which should be renamed the rescue plan) I'm reposting this from the other thread: I think that it probably won't do much as far as actually saving the economy or fixing the credit market. Unfortunately I think we need about 10x as much funding for that. I do think it will help as far as perception though, and perception is half the battle ... if it keeps the markets from wobbling, or people from running on the banks, or the rest of the world from pointing fingers at us for screwing up everything, then yes, I think we need it.
Politically, if you look at the members of Congress who voted against the bill, you'll find that all of those who voted "nay" are the ones who are in tight races in their district. So basically they voted to protect their own jobs instead of voting to protect everyone else's jobs. This is what the state of leadership has come to in this country. It's really sad.
But DubK, didn't many of them vote nay because their people didn't want it? From what I've heard, many in the public don't support this, and their congressmen were actually listening to them. If thats the case, then I support their decision because for once they voted with the people, and not on their own. If the people don't want the bill, to force it would be dictatorial.
Putting aside the issue of the bailout bill itself (which I think stinks and should be defeated) for a moment:
We don't live in a direct democracy; we live in a representative republic. As such, we elect people to make decisions on our behalf, and we (in theory) expect them to make right decisions even if those decisions are unpopular at the time. To simply follow the "will of the people" without exercising any leadership is mob rule, and leads to things like the Third Reich and um, the Iraq war.... Which is why I prefer our elected officials to have some shred of intelligence, rather than merely being a likable idiot we want to have a beer with.
Sarah, of course they did. EVERYONE IN THE COUNTRY was calling their Congressperson saying that they didn't want this bill. Calls from constituents in most districts were 10 to 1 against the bill. But did you see what happened on Monday? The bill failed and the market fell. Then International markets fell, and foreign banks are now failing. Chances are that many of the people who called their Congresspeople to tell them to vote "no" lost giant chunks of their retirement plans on Monday. Chances are that your Congressperson understands the problem a heck of a lot better than you do (at least I hope so!), and should make an informed decision based on this info. If the vote is still "no" in spite of the information presented to the contrary, is this leadership? Is this representing your district? Or is it representing themselves?
If there is really a recession going on in the US 1. it sure doesn't feel like it despite it being on everyone's lips 2. the solution will take ages to agree (bailout isn't necessary the only option) 3. you will feel it first (construction has always been a great barometer of the financial environment).
It will be fun to talk to my father about this when I return, he spent 28 years as an investment banker and has amazing positions about economic solutions.
Also Liberty - I love the Soul Harvest cds...I'm listening to no.3 at the moment. I love it!!
Frankly I don't know how I feel about the bailout/rescue plan. One side of me thinks we should just let Wall St. suffer, but a bigger part knows that something must be done. After all, it's not just the US economy that is going to be affected here. If the US goes down, the rest of the world is going down with it. Thank you globalization.
In other news, I am an aunt again. Sister-in-law delivered a beautiful healthy baby girl last night. Sophia is her name. Nice to have a little wisdom in the family.
a new investment strategy...rather than investing in the stock market which is particularly volatile when the gordon gecko's of the world devise get rich quick fuck the other guy good strategy's of capitalism perhaps average americans should pool their resources into a brick and mortar investment mindset rather than in futures and commodities. for example, take a look outside at the pot holed filled highway. what if investors created a trust and bought infrastructure as an investment. the initial pooled money would be used to repair the chosen infrastucture and then the by use tax the properties would be maintained and dividends would be distributed. similar in idea to a reit without the bubble...
it does feel like a recession at my office. sloooowww. not that we've had to axe more folks yet, but everybody is looking over their shoulder.
The stupidity of the american public continues to astound me. that 60% believe literally in noah's ark just goes to show that we are nation of uneducated, unthinking sheep. I would hope that our representatives are smarter then their average constituents - at least the current legislated bail out bill seems to fix the deficiencies and holes of the first one. But it doesn't seem to fully address the credit crunch.
that credit crunch has been going on for at least a year now, one of my projects has been continuously searching for funding and probably won't ever happen - few years back that sort of thing would be turning money away... feast or famine times.
SH,
Western Kentucky i believe?
I use to drive through it alot on roadtrips between Florida and St. Louis.
I actually have family from near there as well.
i used to go out with this woman who was a mfa at indiana who was from paducah. she had a 67 chevy deuce. her father later became the mayor of paducah. off to the bar to watch the cubs!!!
Damn: now Senators are Architects: "It was a delicate balancing act for the architects of the proposal who had to be careful that in adding elements to entice new support they did not lose the support they already had." quote from the NYT.....Where the Hell is the AIA when you need them to set people straight?
Just Kidding I guess using the Doctors of the Proposal, or Accountants of the Propsal, or what ever you might want to toss in front of proposal doesn't have the ring of Architects.
I would love to have a fill in the blank on this one...to see what kind of clever ideas we could come up with... instood of architects.
sarah, you are right. credit is dumb in a lot of ways. but it is what makes the world run, and in good ways too.
it is complicated and problematic, but the problem your country faces now is deciding between being morally satisfied and fucked up or just letting it go and fixing the country regardless of ideology.
i am for just letting it go and fixing the country. even bush gets it. the municipal bonds that pay for your roads, yourbridges, yourschools, basically all of your public services, just went flat as the prairies and so you are probably going to face some of the lack of credit choices sooner than you think, whatever else happens. imagine the entire country without credit. no new businesses, no innovation, no new tech, no nothing. it won't be fun.
to be honest, the bailout is in the end more persychological than logical as far as i can see. and your government leaders somehow didn't get that.
more interesting, it was not so long ago that switzerland (i think it was them) did a similar thing - around the 80's, 90's as i recall. and they came out way ahead of the game when the cheap investments they "bailed out" suddenly increased in value. it turned out to be a net gain for he country. which is why there is a clause in the bail out this time round in your country that says the govt gets a share of any profits....
well, anyway it is complicated and a torturous topic, so who knows what happens if your leaders decide to fuck the pooch, but i seriously doubt its going to be good.
I've been to Paducah. I think I heard once that it was in the running to be the railroad "crossroads" of the Midwest, but Chicago was selected instead because of its proximity to Lake Michigan. To think what could have been.
Thread Central
Hi all,
It is funny just last night i thought to myself. Hey haven't heard from Jump in awhile.
And then i log on to TC this morning and there he was. Missed him i guess.
Congrats to Beta and re-congrats to Jump for actually having paper in hand the "phd-ification".
LIG. If you are leaning towards waiting a year that is probably what i would do. However, it doesn't hurt to apply to schools. I myself am leaning towards waiting 1 more year for similar financial reasosn. However, will still likely go ahead with at least one or two apps.
Congrats again Dr. Jump. How exciting.
LIG - If I were you I'd just focus on finishing your BArch before anything.
If you apply, and get accepted, do you have to go that year, or can you hold off on your acceptance? It'd be cool if you could.
Turns out my Sitter's Husband doesn't have gaingreen, but was just on the verge. Yuck.
Oh, and congrats to our new doc and NCARBee.
congrats doctor jump phd...
Congratulations Dr. Jump!!!! (Should I capitalize your name now that you're a PhD?
Nothing like accomplishing something you've worked hard at for a loooong time to make you feel a giant weight off your shoulders. So will the dissertation be published as a book that we TCers could buy?!
Your parents must be so proud. Look how much you've accomplished since that life on the prairie!
Damn good job.
yes, jump!
As far as I know, none of the schools I'm applying to allow you to defer enrollment once you've been admitted. At least none of my top choices, anyway. An added wrinkle is that one of the schools I'm looking at, the University of Cincinnati, would probably have me starting classes in the summer rather than the fall, which would give me even less time to get my shit together. Probably best to wait another year and do things the right way.
I still plan on attending the open house in Cincinnati next month, though (I'll buy plane tickets tomorrow). If nothing else, it gives me a good excuse to escape NYC and head back home for a few days.
cograts Dr. Jump and Beta-NCARB...
LiG - if you don't think that you'll be able to start classes next fall (or summer), wait a year before applying and focus on the now. there is also the correlation between the state of the economy and grad school applications. the way this fall is going, there will be a bumper crop of applicants similar to 2001.
wonderk, you could go even farther than the s&p 500 and look to the wilshire 5000 but the stock market isn't the point...that "shit" you refer to is only scary if you are one of the insiders of the washington-wall street axis who has everything to lose (and no real value to contribute). for the rest of us, it should be considered enlightening.
the stock market fluctuations have their biggest value to the media outlets who seem to love covering them and trying to stir their viewers into a frenzy of non-stop watching (similar to hurricane or storm weather coverage). it's kind of a misdirection play similar to magicians. the real story of the past month has been the fannie mae/freddie mac takeover...which added $5 trillion worth of obligations to the federal debt tab...and may very well be covering collateral fraud on the part of the US government. again, for those interested, more info here">http://solari.com/archive/housing_bill/]here[/url]
and a case study in how america got to this point, dillon read & the aristocracy of stock profits
Congratulations dr.jump - thread central is getting smarter and smarter. Speaking of phd's anyone heard from aml recently? She must be busy with classes and her new environs.
Gin, if you can defer do it - otherwise I'd say wait a year and actively seek to get work done for your portfolio. Which is what I need to do now - again, feeling far too lazy for that. Worse that when I return home, I'll have to be actively looking for a job. I've been told by a few practice directors that I should not worry because I have the goods - though I still am. Sigh...
though I'm still smiling from this past weekend...yaw!!
Puddles,
While a i agree that the fluctuations of the market are not the real point, the current state of the financial and (other) markets are decent indictaors as to the underlying mess that is the current US economy. Yes the bailout may not have done more than help out (read; reassure) bankers and investors on Wallstreet that the government had their backs.
However, from eveyrthing i have been reading (especially the writings of John Robb and Nouriel Rabini et al who have been accurately predicting these events for at least 10-16 months) the credit mess is going to spiral further downwards and will at some point in the next year or less impact the "real" economy...
From everything I can tell, in 2-3 years the state of American economy and financial system are going to look drastically different than it does now or has for at least a decade or more. And regardless of America's lost power etc, where America's economy goes so goes the global one... I am hearing more and more people talk seriously of a 2-4 year GLOBAL recession. Whil perhaps earned and deserved not a good thing, IMHO.
While this may be revealing and necessary given the excess and problems inhenerent in current economic/financial structures.
I am certainly not looking forward to the changes/transformation in the near term.
Drastic changes are usual periods of significant readjustment (read; pain) to the economy and society. And not just the fat cats.
Personally i don't have land, savings or a stock of food and other essentials. So if things take even a relatively further downward turn my sense of stability/well being will be drastically affected.
hi aml :P wherever you are!!!!
I guess i am saying my concern isn't so much how we got here but rather where we are headed....
you will have to make asian trip next time archi! your tour sounds brilliant so far.
thanks for congrats again all. it is nice to have it all official.
oddly enough i finished m.arch in sept. 2001 and that proved to be a fun year (not). it feels a little deja vu i must say. getting out of school and casting about for what to do next while the world seems to be doing pretty much the same thing is kind of strange. when i was a kid i thought the world knew what it was doing. it turns out the entire planet is as clueless as me. ;-)
ROCK ON!
LOL, beta!
Jesus christ that's funny! I LOL'ed at that, beta....
Congrats Dr. Jump. And thanks puddles and nam for such insight. I agree with you nam, and that's the part that scares me.
LIG, I think it's a good decision waiting....now is definitely not the time to put added financial pressure on yourself by applying for loans and making a bunch of checks out to universities for steep application fees. I met with a financial advisor last year and she told me to open an ING savings account online and have a little bit of money diverted to it every pay period. It was a good choice and I would encourage you to do the same, divert as much money as you can without crippling yourself for each month and you'll be surprised how quickly it adds up. Also it's hard to get to which makes it better for me, I don't know about you but if I have money I try to spend it.
Right now I think the best thing to do (for myself included) is conserve, save, and don't indulge in excess in general. There's just no extra money.....
Also, quickly, I think WonderKitty is sick. She may have a UTI. I'm going to try to see if she'll drink some cranberry juice before I drag her to the vet....
So, I just discovered that Johnny Walker will make custom labels for you for free. So, I filled out the info, and kept clicking continue, thinking it would tell me how much a bottle of scotch would be through their site, and instead, it just said Shipping labels, Allow 6-8 weeks. Whoops. I hope they only send one. I'm guessing its like a sticker that I apply to my own bottle? Good thing I didnt just type "hdfhadfhadksjfhadlfh" as the inscription.
DubK - Typically cats and dogs aren't big fans of the cranberry stuff. I read somewhere if they don't drink it you can always try mixing it in with their food. In any case, good luck with that.
Nam and DubK - I am in complete agreement with you. It ain't pretty out there right now. Best friend's grandmother has a good chunk o' change to her name. She banks with Wachovia. Yesterday she couldn't even buy groceries b/c her assets were temporarily unavailable. Time to hunker down for a long freeze.
Oh I almost forgot - Congrats Abra on getting the contract signed. That has got to be a very nice feeling.
well then, i guess what i'm saying is that where we are headed is being steered by the same people who have placed us here to begin with. they have conducted this via opaque, illegal & sometimes criminal means while enriching themselves. are these really the people you want leading in leadership positions?
the times ahead are going to be hard, period. the question is, do you want to continue to be squeezed by their way of doing things...or would you rather do the hard work of cleaning out the rot & then establishing a foundation for the future. transparency & honesty should be the highest priority right now (but it won't be pretty).
and yes, i almost forgot to mention, but i am still alive
yesterday i was at get together with some financial type people (hopefully one will be client)...anyway, they are all expats of course, and talking abut how everyone getting canned here in tokyo is loathe to return to the states cuz the country is just too fucked up.
it is amazing and ironic to see how tokyo, the laughing post of financial circles for the last decade is now the place to be because the people here decided not to be such frickin morons with the trading....there are still jobs here even if your company has gone bankrupt.... but in new york? man that is NOT a place to be looking for work (at least not if you are from lehman bros)....
now only if that will turn to confidence with banks we'd be laughing.
puddles, i agree, transparency would be nice. i don't believe for a minute it will ever ever happen, no matter who is in charge. but it would be nice.
regarding that onion article about twisted sista. i actually met mark the animal mendoza when he was in one of my fave bands "the dictators" back when i was FastYoundAndScientific!!!their first album "the dictators go girl crazy" sold seven thousand copies. my friends and i owned six of them...
OK, this is probably so totally 1998, and idiotic to boot, but it made me laugh til tears came and my stomach hurt, and in honor of Dr. Jump, I have to post it!
more goofiness
Heh heh twisted sister always seemed like they enjoyed their rock life versus the other tortured souls you see doc/rockumentaries about.
In other news its wet and cold today in Cleveland. The sun whilst present my entire trip has decided to sleep in. And with it so have I, though being in all day is not my idea of a vacation.
Jump, I think an asia archinect meet-up would be awesome. However I must add that I felt gutted when you said you finished grad school in 01, like I did - you have produced a wealth of quality work in the interim my friend...I'm heineken green with envy.
So I'm here making dim sum (pre-packed amazing stuff from the chinese supermarket) and listening to Barry White.
ummmm i dont think i posted in this thread yet.....
i like house music
liberty bell, I'll see you a House of Pain and raise you a Kris Kross
(congratulations, jump and beta)
anyone else see this advert?
"Admired Design Firm" hiring in l.a.
They have unusually high design standards and they are very selective in considering candidates that they think might excel in the firm.
i never really thought of ZGF as a high design firm...
LB, that guy must have awesome legs! I could never jump for that long.
About this financial mess, I have some questions, and everyone here seems much more level headed than on the other, more appropriate thread...
If its true that not bailing out the market will lead to no lending/no credit, wouldn't that be a good thing? WOuldn't it be better to live without credit. If people can't get loans for college, then people wont go to college, and the price of tuition will fall, thus allowing the price to come back to reality, and people can afford to go again. Same in other situations. Wasn't it the recesion from the 80s that led to such a credit heavy economy? I thought I read that in my recent US past class. Husband and I have been trying to get off credit for a while becuase we don't see it as a good thing. WOuldn't lack of credit teach people to save or do without?
And good morning all!
credit runs business, whatever effects it might have on individuals. you could be right that a drying up of credit might help individuals kick bad habits but, in the meantime, it could also be very problematic for many small (or large, for that matter) businesses to keep going.
that said, i've heard enough economists argue that the crisis/catastrophe may be overstated - and give good reasons why - that i'm now thoroughly convinced that NOBODY KNOWS what will happen no matter whether the rescue bill goes through or doesn't go through.
i've learned enough now to decide to not have an opinion, despite what our presidential candidates say. i don't think the sky will fall, but i think - either way - things will be tight for the next few years.
It's on. I just booked my trip to Cincinnati. I'll be arriving late in the morning of Thursday the 16th, and I'll fly back to NYC the evening of Sunday the 19th.
Sarah, what Steven said is correct. In order to run businesses of any size, you need capital. Some businesses get this from investors, and some need to take out loans. My dad started his own business a few years ago and without loans they never would have been able to buy the equipment that manufactures their product. Small businesses are the foundation of this capitalistic country we live in.
Steven, you make a good point ... it's like global warming actually. No one is quite sure what will happen, but everyone knows that it's bad.
Further more it's highly unlikely that tuition, or rent, or other expenses of that nature, would ever go down. If the situation becomes so dire that large institutions or landowners actually reduce their fees/rent, then chances are that many people are already screwed and going to school is the last thing on their mind (after feeding themselves and having a roof over their head).
Regarding the "bailout," (which should be renamed the rescue plan) I'm reposting this from the other thread: I think that it probably won't do much as far as actually saving the economy or fixing the credit market. Unfortunately I think we need about 10x as much funding for that. I do think it will help as far as perception though, and perception is half the battle ... if it keeps the markets from wobbling, or people from running on the banks, or the rest of the world from pointing fingers at us for screwing up everything, then yes, I think we need it.
Politically, if you look at the members of Congress who voted against the bill, you'll find that all of those who voted "nay" are the ones who are in tight races in their district. So basically they voted to protect their own jobs instead of voting to protect everyone else's jobs. This is what the state of leadership has come to in this country. It's really sad.
PS. Good morning! This class still sucks!
But DubK, didn't many of them vote nay because their people didn't want it? From what I've heard, many in the public don't support this, and their congressmen were actually listening to them. If thats the case, then I support their decision because for once they voted with the people, and not on their own. If the people don't want the bill, to force it would be dictatorial.
Putting aside the issue of the bailout bill itself (which I think stinks and should be defeated) for a moment:
We don't live in a direct democracy; we live in a representative republic. As such, we elect people to make decisions on our behalf, and we (in theory) expect them to make right decisions even if those decisions are unpopular at the time. To simply follow the "will of the people" without exercising any leadership is mob rule, and leads to things like the Third Reich and um, the Iraq war.... Which is why I prefer our elected officials to have some shred of intelligence, rather than merely being a likable idiot we want to have a beer with.
Sarah, of course they did. EVERYONE IN THE COUNTRY was calling their Congressperson saying that they didn't want this bill. Calls from constituents in most districts were 10 to 1 against the bill. But did you see what happened on Monday? The bill failed and the market fell. Then International markets fell, and foreign banks are now failing. Chances are that many of the people who called their Congresspeople to tell them to vote "no" lost giant chunks of their retirement plans on Monday. Chances are that your Congressperson understands the problem a heck of a lot better than you do (at least I hope so!), and should make an informed decision based on this info. If the vote is still "no" in spite of the information presented to the contrary, is this leadership? Is this representing your district? Or is it representing themselves?
If there is really a recession going on in the US 1. it sure doesn't feel like it despite it being on everyone's lips 2. the solution will take ages to agree (bailout isn't necessary the only option) 3. you will feel it first (construction has always been a great barometer of the financial environment).
It will be fun to talk to my father about this when I return, he spent 28 years as an investment banker and has amazing positions about economic solutions.
Also Liberty - I love the Soul Harvest cds...I'm listening to no.3 at the moment. I love it!!
Frankly I don't know how I feel about the bailout/rescue plan. One side of me thinks we should just let Wall St. suffer, but a bigger part knows that something must be done. After all, it's not just the US economy that is going to be affected here. If the US goes down, the rest of the world is going down with it. Thank you globalization.
In other news, I am an aunt again. Sister-in-law delivered a beautiful healthy baby girl last night. Sophia is her name. Nice to have a little wisdom in the family.
a new investment strategy...rather than investing in the stock market which is particularly volatile when the gordon gecko's of the world devise get rich quick fuck the other guy good strategy's of capitalism perhaps average americans should pool their resources into a brick and mortar investment mindset rather than in futures and commodities. for example, take a look outside at the pot holed filled highway. what if investors created a trust and bought infrastructure as an investment. the initial pooled money would be used to repair the chosen infrastucture and then the by use tax the properties would be maintained and dividends would be distributed. similar in idea to a reit without the bubble...
it does feel like a recession at my office. sloooowww. not that we've had to axe more folks yet, but everybody is looking over their shoulder.
The stupidity of the american public continues to astound me. that 60% believe literally in noah's ark just goes to show that we are nation of uneducated, unthinking sheep. I would hope that our representatives are smarter then their average constituents - at least the current legislated bail out bill seems to fix the deficiencies and holes of the first one. But it doesn't seem to fully address the credit crunch.
that credit crunch has been going on for at least a year now, one of my projects has been continuously searching for funding and probably won't ever happen - few years back that sort of thing would be turning money away... feast or famine times.
Steven,
Where is Paducah? I'm drawing its good citizens a nice crematory.
SH,
Western Kentucky i believe?
I use to drive through it alot on roadtrips between Florida and St. Louis.
I actually have family from near there as well.
i used to go out with this woman who was a mfa at indiana who was from paducah. she had a 67 chevy deuce. her father later became the mayor of paducah. off to the bar to watch the cubs!!!
Damn: now Senators are Architects: "It was a delicate balancing act for the architects of the proposal who had to be careful that in adding elements to entice new support they did not lose the support they already had." quote from the NYT.....Where the Hell is the AIA when you need them to set people straight?
Just Kidding I guess using the Doctors of the Proposal, or Accountants of the Propsal, or what ever you might want to toss in front of proposal doesn't have the ring of Architects.
I would love to have a fill in the blank on this one...to see what kind of clever ideas we could come up with... instood of architects.
...balancing act for the engineers of the proposal...
creators
proposers...of the proposal...naw
lol,
sarah, you are right. credit is dumb in a lot of ways. but it is what makes the world run, and in good ways too.
it is complicated and problematic, but the problem your country faces now is deciding between being morally satisfied and fucked up or just letting it go and fixing the country regardless of ideology.
i am for just letting it go and fixing the country. even bush gets it. the municipal bonds that pay for your roads, yourbridges, yourschools, basically all of your public services, just went flat as the prairies and so you are probably going to face some of the lack of credit choices sooner than you think, whatever else happens. imagine the entire country without credit. no new businesses, no innovation, no new tech, no nothing. it won't be fun.
to be honest, the bailout is in the end more persychological than logical as far as i can see. and your government leaders somehow didn't get that.
more interesting, it was not so long ago that switzerland (i think it was them) did a similar thing - around the 80's, 90's as i recall. and they came out way ahead of the game when the cheap investments they "bailed out" suddenly increased in value. it turned out to be a net gain for he country. which is why there is a clause in the bail out this time round in your country that says the govt gets a share of any profits....
well, anyway it is complicated and a torturous topic, so who knows what happens if your leaders decide to fuck the pooch, but i seriously doubt its going to be good.
this made me very happy...
http://cosmos.bcst.yahoo.com/up/player/popup/?cl=9987211
I've been to Paducah. I think I heard once that it was in the running to be the railroad "crossroads" of the Midwest, but Chicago was selected instead because of its proximity to Lake Michigan. To think what could have been.
Is Paducah anywhere near Rabbit Hash?
I stand corrected.... Rabbit Hash is in Boone County; Paducah is in McCracken County.
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