Is anyone else seeing a decline in residential project inquiries recently, or is it just me? Curious if this is a broader trend or something specific to my area.
Yes I did see that. does anyone here have any advice or insight into how they plan on dealing with the slow down? This time last year I could find the staff to fulfil the demand and was pricing my firm out of projects. Now forecasting and looking at what i have coming up next year i need to make some changes unless the inquiry's pick up.
Oct 6, 24 3:06 pm ·
·
OddArchitect
Who is 'they'?
Oct 7, 24 10:34 am ·
·
natematt
The people the poster is asking for advise from on this site.
Oct 7, 24 11:11 am ·
·
OddArchitect
Ah, I wondered if the OP was wondering what the government was gong to do.
Not an architect, but nearly all of my clients are. Many sectors seem to be down this year, but single-family homes are about half of what they were last year.
single family or multi-family? And is this ghe US market? Single family has gotten slower, but multi-family seems to be slowly ticking upward, especially outside the sunbelt and southeast US.
Oct 7, 24 11:47 am ·
·
OddArchitect
Multi-family in CO is booming! It's a tough project type though.
amen to that Chad, I drove to Rifle this weekend and west Glenwood looks very different from a year ago. There's a tiny homes community somewhere near parachute that looked very cute.
Oct 7, 24 12:21 pm ·
·
JLC-1
Sorry, it's near Silt.
Oct 7, 24 12:27 pm ·
·
OddArchitect
I think 'they' are trying to call that work force housing. Unfortunately, it's already become a middle class ski condos.
Not really. No equity. Cannot get a home loan to buy / build one. Also, they're being used for weekend ski seasonal rental housing instead of work force housing.
yes. all of the above. more than homes these are commodities, like buying art.
Oct 7, 24 12:42 pm ·
·
OddArchitect
Except art can have cultural value.
Oct 7, 24 1:14 pm ·
·
JLC-1
not enough time to discuss, I would say art has lost cultural value when it's traded as a commodity.
Oct 7, 24 1:24 pm ·
·
OddArchitect
Good point. I would still say even when traded as a commodity, art still has cultural value. Very little architecture can say that. Even less vacation homes can say that.
Definitely slower where I am. I attended a local town design review commission meeting and the staff remarked on the steep decline in permit applications they have seen in past 6 months or so.
Interest rates and higher homeowner's insurance rates have really reduced the available money people used to have for home additions and remodels.
There's also a (dumb in my opinion) all-around hesitation happening among the local builder and developer crowd about the presidential election.
Oct 7, 24 1:11 pm ·
·
gwharton
Hesitating to commit capital in the face of a national election which has clear positive economic direction one way, and clear negative economic direction the other way, isn't "dumb." It's prudent.
It doesn't ever have to be whether there is a clear positive or negative economic direction but you are right that it is to a certain degree prudent in times of uncertainty to hold off on vanity and guess what... buying a house or making remodels or renovations to a home is vanity to a large degree. If you have a place already, waiting 6 months to a year isn't a big deal. If your home is function but not quite to your ideal, you can make by waiting 6 months to a year.
Guess what EVERY SINGLE election year from the time election primaries start through the election and to about so much time after inauguration of the Presidential and other national elections, there is a slow down. During major state elections, you can see that, too... but more localized to the state. It is when it is not a major state or national election cycle that there is slow down.
Simple: UNCERTAINTY.
Once the decisions are made by voters, people may have a better idea what the direction is going to be. In either political candidates, there will be winners and losers as it relates to their policies and who is effected positively or negatively. What is common and to be expected is that there is ALWAYS a slow down during elections. This has been going on for well over 40 years.
A friend of mind who was a near retired architect having practiced for over 40 years has known these slow downs every time there is major elections especially every national election and sometimes state elections. When there is a time of such uncertainty, people hold on to their money.
There is statistical data that you can trace back... probably throughout the entire history of building permits process that you would see this decline in permits. You can see decline in spending, too! People do this. There is probably a psychological study on how people spend or not spend when they are in a state of uncertainty... not state of panic. There is panic and there is uncertainty. Most are in a state of uncertainty.
I can bet a penny that sometime after the election and inauguration... likely spring time to early summer between February and end of June that there will likely be a up trend on permits. Most likely after taxes in April. The usual pattern is a slow down when national election primaries (start of the official national election cycle) and April's taxes following the election is a lull period for residential projects. As an individual architect or designer, you might see out of usual pattern but the general trend is this way. This is also times when residential clients may put projects on hold that have already started. Pressing pause on the project. This is not unheard of. This is something that is to be expected. Those that get worried and thinking this is unusual, are often those who haven't been in independent practice or such. This is NOT unusual for people.
Oct 7, 24 4:43 pm ·
·
OddArchitect
gwharton wrote:
“Hesitating to commit capital in the face of a national election which has clear positive economic direction one way, and clear negative economic direction the other way, isn't "dumb." It's prudent.”
It can be prudent.
It can also be foolish.
It all depends on the business that you’re in.
The market always has a short-term fluctuation around the presidential election. It’s typically uncertainty from businesses involved in short-term investments. In the long run everything is typically fine.
Don’t misunderstand, long term damage to the economy is certainly possible with a new president. It’s just that it will typically take around five years for this to be realized.
Was hoping to land a 2-4 flat during this fall, but so far hasn't happened. Smaller scale inquiries are pretty busy though - but I'm working on making a scale jump.
Definitely quieter... our local building department just released data indicating a 39% drop in revenue. Big shift from full build application to smaller renos and additions.
Hopefully Kamala is working on her plan to expedite construction around a transit oriented infrastructure. Getting more people to participate in the construction economy would spread wealth, increase units on the market, and help fight global warming.
Lets first provide her a Congress that isn't going to be a roadblock and actually have leaders not ass clowns in Congress. You know... oust the Marjorie Toilet Green and others of that cesspool from public service because that is not what they are there to do. They are just there to f--- things up and block anything from happening for politicized bitching points. So if we want things done... GET RID OF THE MAGA TERRORISTS from Capitol Hill. Vote for people whose interest is serving the country not solely to serve a false wannabe god-dickhead named Donald J. Trump.
Lets pave the political road for her to fulfill these goals like the transit oriented infrastructure.
Oct 9, 24 4:53 pm ·
·
Thayer-D
From your lips...
Oct 9, 24 7:51 pm ·
·
sameolddoctor
"Hopefully" being the key word there
Oct 9, 24 8:36 pm ·
·
OddArchitect
Hope is all anyone can do. It's a complicated system with a lot of chaos.
Is anyone else noticing a drop in residential inquiries lately?
Is anyone else seeing a decline in residential project inquiries recently, or is it just me? Curious if this is a broader trend or something specific to my area.
1 Featured Comment
We've been extensively covering this in Archinect's editorial over the last year or so, in both our Features and News sections.
Archinect's monthly ABI coverage has shown consistent declines, with business conditions remaining soft across most months since January.
What exactly is the ABI? Check out our primer here: How to Understand Architecture Business Conditions Using the AIA's Architecture Billings Index
Some of the recent feature articles we've published tracking the current industry challenges:
And more stories in the Archinect's News section related to business
This problem started early in 2023, as outlined in our end of year coverage from December: Economic Pressures and Labor Challenges: How 2023 Shaped Architecture and Construction Industries
All 14 Comments
i think most people nationally are seeing a slow down. https://www.aia.org/resource-c...
Yes I did see that. does anyone here have any advice or insight into how they plan on dealing with the slow down? This time last year I could find the staff to fulfil the demand and was pricing my firm out of projects. Now forecasting and looking at what i have coming up next year i need to make some changes unless the inquiry's pick up.
Who is 'they'?
The people the poster is asking for advise from on this site.
Ah, I wondered if the OP was wondering what the government was gong to do.
Maybe a slight slowdown in inquiries, or at least in quality if inquiries. But I don't advertise and have a 12+ month backlog so I'm not nervous yet.
Not an architect, but nearly all of my clients are. Many sectors seem to be down this year, but single-family homes are about half of what they were last year.
single family or multi-family? And is this ghe US market? Single family has gotten slower, but multi-family seems to be slowly ticking upward, especially outside the sunbelt and southeast US.
Multi-family in CO is booming! It's a tough project type though.
amen to that Chad, I drove to Rifle this weekend and west Glenwood looks very different from a year ago. There's a tiny homes community somewhere near parachute that looked very cute.
Sorry, it's near Silt.
I think 'they' are trying to call that work force housing. Unfortunately, it's already become a middle class ski condos.
better than trailers anyway.
Not really. No equity. Cannot get a home loan to buy / build one. Also, they're being used for weekend ski seasonal rental housing instead of work force housing.
I think I interviewed for this project. Or one similar to it in that area.
this is their website https://www.riverruncolorado.com/
They look nice. I would like to see more small housing like this in the Western Slope.
I think our firm was asked to propose on that. We declined due to the increased liability for 'condos' here in CO.
not here. again, I don't know if I can classify what we do as "residential" since nobody lives in the houses more than 2 months a year.
Vacation homes? Ski condos?
Blatant waste of money and resource housing?
yes. all of the above. more than homes these are commodities, like buying art.
Except art can have cultural value.
not enough time to discuss, I would say art has lost cultural value when it's traded as a commodity.
Good point. I would still say even when traded as a commodity, art still has cultural value. Very little architecture can say that. Even less vacation homes can say that.
Definitely slower where I am. I attended a local town design review commission meeting and the staff remarked on the steep decline in permit applications they have seen in past 6 months or so.
Interest rates and higher homeowner's insurance rates have really reduced the available money people used to have for home additions and remodels.
There's also a (dumb in my opinion) all-around hesitation happening among the local builder and developer crowd about the presidential election.
Hesitating to commit capital in the face of a national election which has clear positive economic direction one way, and clear negative economic direction the other way, isn't "dumb." It's prudent.
It doesn't ever have to be whether there is a clear positive or negative economic direction but you are right that it is to a certain degree prudent in times of uncertainty to hold off on vanity and guess what... buying a house or making remodels or renovations to a home is vanity to a large degree. If you have a place already, waiting 6 months to a year isn't a big deal. If your home is function but not quite to your ideal, you can make by waiting 6 months to a year.
Guess what EVERY SINGLE election year from the time election primaries start through the election and to about so much time after inauguration of the Presidential and other national elections, there is a slow down. During major state elections, you can see that, too... but more localized to the state. It is when it is not a major state or national election cycle that there is slow down.
Simple: UNCERTAINTY.
Once the decisions are made by voters, people may have a better idea what the direction is going to be. In either political candidates, there will be winners and losers as it relates to their policies and who is effected positively or negatively. What is common and to be expected is that there is ALWAYS a slow down during elections. This has been going on for well over 40 years.
A friend of mind who was a near retired architect having practiced for over 40 years has known these slow downs every time there is major elections especially every national election and sometimes state elections. When there is a time of such uncertainty, people hold on to their money.
There is statistical data that you can trace back... probably throughout the entire history of building permits process that you would see this decline in permits. You can see decline in spending, too! People do this. There is probably a psychological study on how people spend or not spend when they are in a state of uncertainty... not state of panic. There is panic and there is uncertainty. Most are in a state of uncertainty.
I can bet a penny that sometime after the election and inauguration... likely spring time to early summer between February and end of June that there will likely be a up trend on permits. Most likely after taxes in April. The usual pattern is a slow down when national election primaries (start of the official national election cycle) and April's taxes following the election is a lull period for residential projects. As an individual architect or designer, you might see out of usual pattern but the general trend is this way. This is also times when residential clients may put projects on hold that have already started. Pressing pause on the project. This is not unheard of. This is something that is to be expected. Those that get worried and thinking this is unusual, are often those who haven't been in independent practice or such. This is NOT unusual for people.
gwharton wrote:
“Hesitating to commit capital in the face of a national election which has clear positive economic direction one way, and clear negative economic direction the other way, isn't "dumb." It's prudent.”
It can be prudent.
It can also be foolish.
It all depends on the business that you’re in.
The market always has a short-term fluctuation around the presidential election. It’s typically uncertainty from businesses involved in short-term investments. In the long run everything is typically fine.
Don’t misunderstand, long term damage to the economy is certainly possible with a new president. It’s just that it will typically take around five years for this to be realized.
things are up where I am — not sure how we’re going get it all done
Was hoping to land a 2-4 flat during this fall, but so far hasn't happened. Smaller scale inquiries are pretty busy though - but I'm working on making a scale jump.
Definitely quieter... our local building department just released data indicating a 39% drop in revenue. Big shift from full build application to smaller renos and additions.
We've been extensively covering this in Archinect's editorial over the last year or so, in both our Features and News sections.
Archinect's monthly ABI coverage has shown consistent declines, with business conditions remaining soft across most months since January.
What exactly is the ABI? Check out our primer here: How to Understand Architecture Business Conditions Using the AIA's Architecture Billings Index
Some of the recent feature articles we've published tracking the current industry challenges:
And more stories in the Archinect's News section related to business
This problem started early in 2023, as outlined in our end of year coverage from December: Economic Pressures and Labor Challenges: How 2023 Shaped Architecture and Construction Industries
Hopefully Kamala is working on her plan to expedite construction around a transit oriented infrastructure. Getting more people to participate in the construction economy would spread wealth, increase units on the market, and help fight global warming.
Lets first provide her a Congress that isn't going to be a roadblock and actually have leaders not ass clowns in Congress. You know... oust the Marjorie Toilet Green and others of that cesspool from public service because that is not what they are there to do. They are just there to f--- things up and block anything from happening for politicized bitching points. So if we want things done... GET RID OF THE MAGA TERRORISTS from Capitol Hill. Vote for people whose interest is serving the country not solely to serve a false wannabe god-dickhead named Donald J. Trump.
Lets pave the political road for her to fulfill these goals like the transit oriented infrastructure.
From your lips...
"Hopefully" being the key word there
Hope is all anyone can do. It's a complicated system with a lot of chaos.
No slow down in Los Angeles. Yikes the rest of this year is going to be way too busy.....
Yes - phone has gone silent in thee last month
Block this user
Are you sure you want to block this user and hide all related comments throughout the site?
Archinect
This is your first comment on Archinect. Your comment will be visible once approved.