Any predictions for tomorrow? Dow down 100, 200, 300, 600? Up 100, 200, 300? Given the events since Friday night it should be a wild ride for sure. Will the Fed sooth worried investors? Will the bank of NY offer a bail out to all comers? Will we all just laugh at 3:30?
The vix aggregates the spreads of puts and calls on the SP futures right? So if the spread is near 0 and the trend is down or up in agreement the volitility is near 0 as well.
I love the CBOE - its so much more interesting than the NYSE; If your ever in town I highly recomend visiting the options floor - its the coolest thing to see here.
OF - please explaine the vix more - is the 35-40 range based on historical experiances or what - i thought the volatility index measures "volatility" meaning change - to the good or bad - so if a trend is up or down and everyones in agreement theirs not much volatility -
when the government takes over corporations especially large ones in possession of a value that is 1/2 the deficit and is also running record social programs (highest welfare) is that not national socialism?
people savings? you mean the banks assets that people are paying into for a very elite select few who may have that much stock in them?
before didn't the banks and other large corporate bodies have more power over the gov and this would be a reversal of that situation where the gov exerts it's power over them, upon their collapse?
maybe a loss is what needs to happen as the practices they were involved in are highly corrupt. Rather than making new laws to patch the problem wouldn't a redistribution of land ownership by other means like giving people back what the banks for so long have controlled and taken by predatory practices be a better solution?
VIX for some reason didnt spike to 35. Some say so many people were expecting a crash to lower levels it didn't happen. I thought we were going to see 10400-10600 in the Dow this summer.
I'm starting to think it's value might becoming more limited than it was say a yr ago since its too striking of an indicator. Too many ppl use it.
Either way banks are still screwed, Fannie Mae/ Freddie Mac are still in trouble (they were apparently leveraged 20-30x times their total equity! not even the most aggressive hedge funds stick their necks out like that), and we still have serious inflation issues from a Fed that will refuse to raise interest rates to make sure their Wall Street bank buddies will stay solvent. Post election I could imagine the mother of all crashes when the Fed lets go of the strings propping up the market and try to blame it on Obama.
You could say that was capitulation based on VIX since it did crack 30, financials did recover like it was capitulation but the overall market still looks sick. but I would agree the big washout for the intermediate term hasn't arrived yet. I'm thinking either soon or maybe in August. Then the market gets whacked again next earnings cycle.
Kevin Phillips- Bad Money it talks about allot of stuff i knew little about, how the Fed is able to save the market artificially every time and allot of other historical context to the current economic situation.
Tomorrow should be very bad, given lb's probable bankruptcy. Sounds like the investors are shorting on everything, which is bad news for many more financial institutions.
Has me very worried about the financial state of the building industry. Does not bode well for the profession -a all especially recent grads. I have been all doom and gloom for the last couple of years, but it looks to be even worse than I thought. Greeenspans's latest opinions are terrible (although he seems to take no responsibility for the mess.)
I don't profess to understand the markets that well but I do pay attention. It strikes me that BofA just absorbed Countrywide what, a couple of months ago? And now it's buying Merrill Lynch? Aren't they the guys with the bull in the commercials? How much can BofA take? Call me naive but these events have me worried, to say the least.
And Sarah is right, when Greenspan says these sorts of things, I get even more worried.
Did all of this happen on Sunday because the market would go nuts if it had happened on a trading day?
I think that if Goldman Sachs starts to experience trouble, they should ask for some of those gigantic Christmas bonuses back that they gave out last year. Or not.
I heard that CNA in Chicago had 2.5% of their assets in Freddie and Fannie. OUCH! I am not sure if any of it was in preferred. Layoffs? That's what the Tisch Bros. usually do.
AIG is in trouble.
WaMu is in trouble as well. I wouldn't be surprised if they closed a lot of bricks and mortar in order to cut down their overhead. Will the Chicago branches make it? I doubt it.
This is going to affect our profession a great deal. Hope for the best!
The dollar is gonna' sink and that means foreign investors in US securities are gonna loose a bundle.
Shades of 1992 when Alan Greenspan told Bush 1 that if he didn't raise taxes to cut the deficit, interest rates would have to be raised to 12% to keep the foreign investors from deserting US securities.
It's a very volatile period here in the USA. As Greenspan said it's a once in a hundred years occurrence. I would say once every 20 years.
Over the weekend, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York called together the leaders of most major financial firms in an effort to get them to act collectively to stem any possible panic, but could not force a deal.
In a way, that was similar to what happened a little more than a century ago, when the financier J.P. Morgan called the heads of all the trust companies in New York to a meeting in his library, and demanded that they agree to put up money to stop the bank run at another trust company.
The bankers did not want to do so, in part because they would need that money if the panic spread. Morgan locked the door, and kept the presidents in the library until morning, when they finally gave in. No such coercion exists this year.
Dow Jones Predictions?
Any predictions for tomorrow? Dow down 100, 200, 300, 600? Up 100, 200, 300? Given the events since Friday night it should be a wild ride for sure. Will the Fed sooth worried investors? Will the bank of NY offer a bail out to all comers? Will we all just laugh at 3:30?
dow closed at 11,100.54 last friday
great buying opportunity
check back july 13, 2009 - you will be very happy
My personal uneducated no economics training opinion is 1997 is the real baseline average of the stock market
Asian markets are already open and are actualy advancing based on the Treasury announcements tonight.
you really want the world to end, don't you, evilp?
someone in iran sneezed...down 250
i would see dow jones at 9000pts by the end of this year...
bookmarked this thread and thank me later.
The vix aggregates the spreads of puts and calls on the SP futures right? So if the spread is near 0 and the trend is down or up in agreement the volitility is near 0 as well.
I love the CBOE - its so much more interesting than the NYSE; If your ever in town I highly recomend visiting the options floor - its the coolest thing to see here.
OF - please explaine the vix more - is the 35-40 range based on historical experiances or what - i thought the volatility index measures "volatility" meaning change - to the good or bad - so if a trend is up or down and everyones in agreement theirs not much volatility -
ahhh- answers.com for needs - your right it says historically above 30 signals a 30 day bottom is in place
is the US gov taking over them fascist?
only if you think fascism takes the form of securing billions of dollars of peoples savings from being lost...
when the government takes over corporations especially large ones in possession of a value that is 1/2 the deficit and is also running record social programs (highest welfare) is that not national socialism?
people savings? you mean the banks assets that people are paying into for a very elite select few who may have that much stock in them?
before didn't the banks and other large corporate bodies have more power over the gov and this would be a reversal of that situation where the gov exerts it's power over them, upon their collapse?
maybe a loss is what needs to happen as the practices they were involved in are highly corrupt. Rather than making new laws to patch the problem wouldn't a redistribution of land ownership by other means like giving people back what the banks for so long have controlled and taken by predatory practices be a better solution?
very interesting OFG, will commit that to memory by the time I've got money in the market
are these bailed out financial institutions causing the gov to operate at a loss? and risking greater collapse?
The federal government's been running at a loss for a long time now, Anti.
Prediction markets now split at an 11000 year-end close.
VIX for some reason didnt spike to 35. Some say so many people were expecting a crash to lower levels it didn't happen. I thought we were going to see 10400-10600 in the Dow this summer.
I'm starting to think it's value might becoming more limited than it was say a yr ago since its too striking of an indicator. Too many ppl use it.
Either way banks are still screwed, Fannie Mae/ Freddie Mac are still in trouble (they were apparently leveraged 20-30x times their total equity! not even the most aggressive hedge funds stick their necks out like that), and we still have serious inflation issues from a Fed that will refuse to raise interest rates to make sure their Wall Street bank buddies will stay solvent. Post election I could imagine the mother of all crashes when the Fed lets go of the strings propping up the market and try to blame it on Obama.
for those who has this wishful thinking that dow will stay at 11000, this is your last call to jump!!
bookmark this page and thank me later.
We'll see, some decent things have happened in the last week.
I'll remain cautiously optimistic. Wells Fargo's earning were a nice surprise and oil looks poised to go down to more reasonable levels.
Just gambling. No one knows.
You could say that was capitulation based on VIX since it did crack 30, financials did recover like it was capitulation but the overall market still looks sick. but I would agree the big washout for the intermediate term hasn't arrived yet. I'm thinking either soon or maybe in August. Then the market gets whacked again next earnings cycle.
(last) May 1st was the highest it may ever be again
today was a big negative
any idea when we will hit 10,000 ?
dow closes at 11,131.08
up 31 points since this thread began
I got a great audio book:
Kevin Phillips- Bad Money it talks about allot of stuff i knew little about, how the Fed is able to save the market artificially every time and allot of other historical context to the current economic situation.
today was a big positive.
dow up 266 points ~ any idea when we will hit 15,000?
closes at 11,397.56
i don't thing it will ever go over 13,000 again
black monday II when the feds took over the major bank
i bet it will be above 13,000 within 5 years
bush took a dump on all tax payers... sell short
this year i dun have any stock, only long/short the futures.
little money and gain big if u catch the wave.
Crazy, crazy times!
Still, though, cautiously optimistic. Probably not a bottom yet, but getting closer and closer. Oil down so much, so fast adds to the excitements!
oil and commodities is not over yet!
is just that money move from commodities to stock, in two month around Oct, u see stock plunge and commodites rebound.
disclaimer- no holding of commodities (sold long ago), now only call/put warrents.
dow up 186 points
closes at 11,583.69
dow closed friday at 11,421.99
basically moving sideways past 2 months
should be interesting to see the reaction after obama wins this november
aspect's prediction of a stock plunge in october is probably correct - usually just before an election (similar thing back in 2000)
wish I were confident he'll win. It is tied now.
I see no reason why anything will go up for a while. News just gets worse and worse. My cautious optimism has evaporated.
Ive been told markets move in 20 year cycles
u will not be seeing dow @ 115xx for the rest of the year.
in Oct, u will see the true face.
listen to me now and thank me later.
i'll second old fogey - the real bloodbath is just beginning.
bank on a 5-10% drop in the dow this month.
expect a few more private firms with a ton of exposure to go down in the next month. october may be the bottom looking up.
(even though it will be painful as hell for some companies, it's going to be a good thing long term).
yes, it would be nice to have a clear bottom.
it is going to get ugly, for sure.
I'll just sit back and watch and wait (and thank god I left things in money market accounts!)
Tomorrow should be very bad, given lb's probable bankruptcy. Sounds like the investors are shorting on everything, which is bad news for many more financial institutions.
Has me very worried about the financial state of the building industry. Does not bode well for the profession -a all especially recent grads. I have been all doom and gloom for the last couple of years, but it looks to be even worse than I thought. Greeenspans's latest opinions are terrible (although he seems to take no responsibility for the mess.)
yeah, way to go greenspan...
I don't profess to understand the markets that well but I do pay attention. It strikes me that BofA just absorbed Countrywide what, a couple of months ago? And now it's buying Merrill Lynch? Aren't they the guys with the bull in the commercials? How much can BofA take? Call me naive but these events have me worried, to say the least.
And Sarah is right, when Greenspan says these sorts of things, I get even more worried.
Did all of this happen on Sunday because the market would go nuts if it had happened on a trading day?
I think that if Goldman Sachs starts to experience trouble, they should ask for some of those gigantic Christmas bonuses back that they gave out last year. Or not.
mini dow -349!!
Who's exposed to Lehman?
I heard that CNA in Chicago had 2.5% of their assets in Freddie and Fannie. OUCH! I am not sure if any of it was in preferred. Layoffs? That's what the Tisch Bros. usually do.
AIG is in trouble.
WaMu is in trouble as well. I wouldn't be surprised if they closed a lot of bricks and mortar in order to cut down their overhead. Will the Chicago branches make it? I doubt it.
This is going to affect our profession a great deal. Hope for the best!
OldFogey> the whole asia market is closed today monday (except taiwan) because of the holidays.
now we all wait to see the drama at dow tonight (our time) instead.
because of the mid autumn festival.
last week, i jumped in to buy gold, because i do not believe US dollar will stay at this level.
however, future dow has always been a tool to generate panic selling in asia.
The dollar is gonna' sink and that means foreign investors in US securities are gonna loose a bundle.
Shades of 1992 when Alan Greenspan told Bush 1 that if he didn't raise taxes to cut the deficit, interest rates would have to be raised to 12% to keep the foreign investors from deserting US securities.
It's a very volatile period here in the USA. As Greenspan said it's a once in a hundred years occurrence. I would say once every 20 years.
i do not believe a word greenspan said, he said it at the beginning of the year that the worst had passed.
i think greenspan is working for some finiance corporation, u never know how many "puts" he invested.
wonder if you have bought puts at lehman, can u still have your money back?
Several of McCain's top campaign have lobbied for Lehman. That's when you call home favors and ask the Fed to bail you out!
In a way, that was similar to what happened a little more than a century ago, when the financier J.P. Morgan called the heads of all the trust companies in New York to a meeting in his library, and demanded that they agree to put up money to stop the bank run at another trust company.
The bankers did not want to do so, in part because they would need that money if the panic spread. Morgan locked the door, and kept the presidents in the library until morning, when they finally gave in. No such coercion exists this year.
From the NY Times today
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/15/business/15market.html?hp
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