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Dow Jones Predictions?

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won and done williams

jack, i really don't think this going to be anything like the great depression. there's a lot of fear driving that perception. in terms of arch. development, i haven't seen anything yet, but i also think development tends to be very slow to adjust to market conditions. it's the housing sector i feel optimistic about. first to go down, first to recover. home prices i've seen are ridiculously low right now and buyers are coming out of the woodwork. aspect, i do worry a bit about a second wave of data and reports that reflects what's been going on for the last three months driving the market down, but outside of the data, in terms of an everyday response to economic conditions, i see a lot of the panic leaving the market.

just my two cents. i wouldn't bet the house on it.

Nov 29, 08 11:23 am  · 
 · 
2step

Thats what Im saying Jafidler - theres a sense of normalcy returning but the fundamental problem is still not enough cash in the banking system, fear of lending. Until the banks and investment houses can come out of their shells the paper and credit markets will be locked up. Regardless of a temporary uptick in consumer mood. I dont think it wil be the great depression but it could be close.

Nov 29, 08 12:37 pm  · 
 · 
trace™

That's what it seems like to me. The fundamentals haven't indicated that there is anything really improving, but because Wall Street has been shouting everything is over sold (via hedge fund liquidation, institutional selling), things are trading higher.

I have no idea, of course, and that's why I nibble. But I'll wait until I hear some indication that 'real' world business is moving forward.

Nov 29, 08 7:57 pm  · 
 · 
aspect

stock market is always at least 3 months ahead the fundamental economic factor, just play along^^

Nov 29, 08 9:13 pm  · 
 · 
aspect

jafidler, i'm not a buffet fan,

"don't piss against the wind" is my trading philosophy^^

Nov 29, 08 9:19 pm  · 
 · 
aspect

it is about time to look for good position to sell stock before christmas.

i would still keep commodities i bought last week, the USD rebound is about finish.

if u look at the USD index (monthly chart), the only year that could break RSI70 was year 2000 http://www.fxstreet.com/rates-charts/usdollar-index/

US bond had once reach -ve interest rate, imagine you lent money to ppl and u have to pay interest? ha!!

after stock rebound, next is commodity...

also look at farm products, obama once said he would cut subsidize for farmers, meaning less supply may be coming...

will update later^^

hope fellow architects can earn more!

Dec 11, 08 10:00 am  · 
 · 
aspect

an important piece of information to know if u hold gold in dec.

http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/fekete/2008/1205.html

Dec 11, 08 10:31 am  · 
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aspect

my first post here-

07/13/08 21:05
i would see dow jones at 9000pts by the end of this year...

bookmarked this thread and thank me later.






dow jones closed 9,034.690 on first trading day of 09.

i know we architects like to play God sometimes. ha....


Jan 3, 09 4:39 am  · 
 · 
2step

The stock market is usually described as foreward looking so the massive sell-off in the fall is looking at the begining of 2009 economic situation, which should mean dire. However this mini rally should be pointing to a 2nd quater return to growth - lets hope. A few things threaten the recovery, among them i see a report this morning that Obama is proposing a massive fuel tax. This couldnt come at a worse time. lets hope its not true. The tensions in the Gaza / Isreal region could be just awful for reintroducing fear to the markets. Lets hope both sides stand down. If their war further erodes the American markets the reaction to both sides in America will be dire for both their "causes". Maybe thats a good thing though if it means America will protect it's domestic manufacturers and return to a more protectionist position. Its often said protectionism is bad but in this environment we need to look hard at what international trade pacts have done to our economy, especially where I come from in the midwest. They call it free trade but whats free about taxing to death our domestic manufacturers, limiting credit to our producers, supporting outdated union workers who are making it cost prohibitive to manufacture here while at the same time offering tax incentives for moving production to Mexico or Taiwan, turning a blind eye to the working conditions and wages in those countries which are kept even lower by currency manipulation? Do we want a country that has a healthy manufacturing base, which leads to decent wages, research and development, computer and robotic engineering jobs and increased support services to work for producers, or do we want to buy $10 12 packs of tighty whitey jockeys at Wal Mart?

Jan 3, 09 1:17 pm  · 
 · 
aspect

so far obama only mention about creating jobs, we do not hear any plans for improving the financial situation yet... properties, cds, credit crunch... wall st. is still waiting but loosing its patient soon.

sold all my stock i bought in Nov. on 2nd jan, still keep gold (bought @760) & oil(bought @43)... will wait and see...

Jan 3, 09 10:49 pm  · 
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won and done williams

damn, it looks like 8,000 is the new bottom. i was betting on 8,500.

where's it go from here?

Feb 5, 09 8:14 pm  · 
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drums please, Fab?

6,500 by this may

(hoping, like my second post in this thread, that i am 100% wrong)

Feb 5, 09 8:34 pm  · 
 · 
aspect

the first wave is done...

i only know this month is an uptrend... had my call ready at the beginning of this month, just play along with the flow... but not put too much money onto it...

Feb 5, 09 9:15 pm  · 
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aspect

i think tonite dow jones (6thfeb) could be quite a drama.

Feb 5, 09 11:52 pm  · 
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aspect

friday's drama-

job lost 13 year worst.
senate agreed on stimulus plan.

dow up 2.70%

Feb 6, 09 8:46 pm  · 
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won and done williams

the dow is in free fall. low not seen since 1997. the dow's plunge in the last year has wiped out the last twelve years of growth.

frankly i'm surprised. i don't really understand where the panic is coming from. who is selling at this point?

Feb 23, 09 9:28 pm  · 
 · 
PsyArch

DJSE 7115
FTSE 3850


By end of March another 10% fall:

DJSE 6400
FTSE 3400

I think they will hover +/- there for a month or two.

Feb 23, 09 9:38 pm  · 
 · 
cmu268

i agree with PsyArch - i think it falls another 10% or so before it starts to climb back upward, but i think that will be shortlived too

i think the stock markets will be in major limbo until the whole banking mess gets solved and housing bottoms

i think AIG is supposed to be report a $60 billion loss for the last quarter, the largest corporate loss in history, either today or tomorrow. what a great investment of taxpayer money that was. think there's anything still to salvage there??

Feb 23, 09 9:56 pm  · 
 · 
evilplatypus

If the last 10 years have taught me anything its that we live an the age of the bubbles. Tech bubbles, electricity bubbles, real estate bubbles and oil bubbles. I see this as a massive fear bubble. It may not go back to 14000 but it's going to come back. Might not be lead by financials but it will be lead by some sector. Maybe tech and transports.

Feb 23, 09 11:17 pm  · 
 · 
n400

Anyone here trade volatility indices? And how long before gold starts feeling warm and fuzzy again?

Feb 23, 09 11:42 pm  · 
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aspect

S&P 500 drop below 750 last nite... 750 is a critical support, if stay below for coming days, there will be free fall...

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EGSPC#symbol=%5EGSPC;range=my

Feb 24, 09 12:48 am  · 
 · 
aspect

btw, i sold my gold already this week.

Feb 24, 09 12:50 am  · 
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greenlander1

Nice play aspect, gold is lookin toppy
Thinking we get some temporary relief then down to 6000-6500 range end of March and some pretty comprehensive bank nationalization.

Feb 24, 09 4:21 am  · 
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aspect

i receive 2 important msg from obama speech over the weekend...

1. withdraw from iqrai- will be a turning point for fading of the bear market. (long run)

2. cut funding for the oil company- oil price will go up...

-still keep my oil bought @ last dec @ $43 :-(
-sold all my puts last friday.
-i'm very tempted to buy citigroup @$1.5... wtf! need to find channel @ asia.

Feb 28, 09 11:11 pm  · 
 · 
greenlander1

wondering if we get that big flush this week whether gold could actually reverse and start going back up.

aspect what puts did u have?

dunno bout C. Its doing a pretty good AIG/ FRE/ FNM dance right now.

Mar 1, 09 2:21 pm  · 
 · 
aspect

i put the dj index in my country, since i'm not familar with particular US stock...

i think the flush is inevitable, is a matter of whether there is dead cat's rebound or not... everytime i see magazine cover saying stock crash, its time to sell put for safty reason...

too bad, my fund house buddy saying its no good to buy citigroup yet... they are following the path of AIG...

Mar 1, 09 9:19 pm  · 
 · 
greenlander1

C is dead. Better off picking a relatively healthy financial for a bounce.
BAC is right behind on the death march.

Utnil they figure out this whole bank thing its still gonna be ugly. When they finally realized they gotta take over the major institutions could be a solid rally.




Mar 2, 09 2:41 am  · 
 · 
PsyArch

Wow. It gets better.

My March-ends (6400 and 3400) now look obvious.

OK. before May:

DJSE to sink under 6000
FTSE to go below 3000

And so will begin the summer of slump.

Mar 2, 09 9:47 am  · 
 · 
aquapura

The US budget for FY 2009 is expecting a deficit of 1.75 trillion. Projected deficit of 1.2 trillion for FY 2010. I have a really really hard time believing China will be able to finance that 3 trillion of deficits. We are getting to numbers that are so huge simply "borrowing" the money is no long an option. The only option left is for the fed to monetize the debt. Hello hyperinflation.

On the plus side, rapid inflation is good for stocks. Problem is, the currency they are traded in will be worth a whole lot less.

Mar 2, 09 1:47 pm  · 
 · 
blah

Unless the banking crisis is addressed the free-fall will not stop.

5000 by the end of March.

Canadian banks look really good:

Analysts, regulators, and politicians are beginning to recognize that most if not all of the widely touted benefits of modern finance redounded only to its purveyors. The decidedly retro Canadian banking system, with simple products, high equity requirements, and relatively modest securities operations that focus on domestic customers, is the soundest in the world. As Theresa Tedesco noted in the New York Times:
The five major chartered banks, the few regional banks and handful of large insurance companies are all regulated by the federal government. Canadian banks are relatively constrained in the amounts they can lend. Canadian banks are required to have a bigger cushion to absorb losses than American banks. In addition, Canadian government regulations protect the domestic banks by limiting foreign competition. They also keep banks broadly owned by public shareholders....

Canadian banks are known to be risk-averse, and this has served them well. While their American counterparts were loading up their books with risky mortgages, Canadian banks maintained their lending requirements, largely avoiding subprime mortgages. The buttoned-down banks in Canada also tended to keep these types of securities on their books, rather than packaging them and selling them to investors. This meant that the exposures they did have to weak mortgages were more visible to the marketplace.

The big five Canadian banks — Royal Bank of Canada, Toronto-Dominion Bank, Bank of Nova Scotia, Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce and Bank of Montreal — survived the recent turmoil relatively unscathed. Their balance sheets remain intact and their capital ratios are comfortably above requirements.

Mar 2, 09 1:50 pm  · 
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aspect

ha, i'm more optimistic, i look for rebound now!

i think the real thing is at Sept.

Mar 3, 09 4:46 am  · 
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tidalwave1

stocks will keep falling until geithner is out.
very disappointed that obama kept the "same" people in charge...

Mar 3, 09 8:43 am  · 
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greenlander1

I just closed out my shorts. Gettign too dangerous here.
But intermediate term were still screwed until they come up w bank solution.

Mar 3, 09 12:09 pm  · 
 · 
aspect

greenlander1, is good that u take profit while u can especially in a bearish market. seems like a good move.

the big shark of wall st, always target some famous ppl prediction and do the opposite, countless examples... i remeber a few weeks ago Nouriel Roubini said there will be rebound then u see what happen afterwards...

last nite warren buffet said the future was grey! i suppose its about time u settle ur shorts. ha

Mar 4, 09 3:09 am  · 
 · 
greenlander1

aspect,
Yeh I sometimes ride things a little too close.
I never listen to famous ppl anyways, they are on a much less precise time frame and often have motives other than being time specific in their calls. Just respond to oversold, overbought scenarios.

Roubini probs wants to become famous for picking a bottom to distinguish himself from the uber-bears. Buffett wnats to instill more fear so his future acquisitions are cheaper. Same ol crap.

Mar 4, 09 7:46 pm  · 
 · 
aspect

finally there are some lights at the near end of tunnel...

http://www.businessinsider.com/ex-countrywide-bosses-cashing-in-on-trash-mortgages-and-helping-save-world-2009-3

Stanford Kurland, the former No. 2 to Angelo Mozillo at Countrywide, has a new business: Buying distressed mortgages at pennies on the dollar. The business is wildly profitable. It is helping to fix the banking system. It is also helping Americans stay in their homes.

Here's how it works:

Kurland's new company, PennyMac (!), goes to a demolished bank or the FDIC and buys up delinquent mortgages at, say, 20 cents on the dollar. Kurland's people then call the delinquent homeowner and say, "How would you like to pay $2,000 a month instead of $4,000?" Once the homeowners realize it's not a scam, they say "hell, yes." PennyMac then books the often-massive spread between what it paid for the loan (20 cents) and what it is getting from the loan (50 cents).

Key points:

The bank had already taken the loss (good)
The problem has been addressed at its root (the homeowner can now afford the house)
The loan owner is no longer in denial.
The modified loan can be resecuritized.
This is a private-market solution (the FDIC just does its job)
There is a market for these loans, despite what Citigroup and Bank of America (which have yet to take the losses on the loans) will tell you.
PennyMac is funded by Blackstone and other private-market investors, showing yet again that there is money ready and willing to invest in mortgages once they are sold at the right price.
This doesn't involve judges, screams, or forced cramdowns
It doesn't involve tens of billions of taxpayer dollars shoveled into zombie banks (the FDIC just has to do its job and seize insolvent banks).

The New York Times describes PennyMac in detail here, devoting much time to the irony/horror that Kurland is making hay buying back the trash loans he once sold. Bloomberg describes several other companies that are doing the same thing here.

Mar 5, 09 10:04 am  · 
 · 
greenlander1

This is essentially what my office does but on a much smaller scale.
But Pennymac isnt really helping anyone, they are just vulture investors.
Only way this happens if we have more dissolved banks. unfortunately the gov't is trying to do the opposite.

Mar 5, 09 1:10 pm  · 
 · 
trace™

Looks interesting. All comes down to how low the banks will go and how high the investors will pay. I know a project I am involved in (in bankruptcy) just got an offer, but the bank rejected it, leaving acres and acres of half developed land sitting there.

Eventually they'll have to sell, unless there is a miraculous recovering and they can get what they think it is worth.


Mar 5, 09 3:30 pm  · 
 · 
greenlander1

Yeh right now banks are still in denial. Especially the big ones. They might have big portfolio sales now and then but we dont even bother trying negotiating with the BAC, C, WM types since generally speaking they think their shit dont stink.

unless it is a freakishly conservative bank who had underwriting standards that didnt get them in trouble, either they wake up and try and get something for their assets or sit on them just hoping and implode. But right now bid and ask still far apart. We're seeing little signs of improvement though. Some are actually getting workout officers now.

I hope the FDIC just muscles in the market and liquidates these crappy banks. Not interested in seeing more money wasted bailing out these fools.

Mar 5, 09 6:37 pm  · 
 · 
greenlander1

I just stuck my hand in the blender and went long financials. Ick.

Mar 6, 09 6:16 pm  · 
 · 
aspect

i'm actually looking at the US financials, however, my fund house friend told me not to touch until Sept...

i also stuck my fingers in the blender last week, i long the index, ha! die hard^^ but the last 30mins V rally was at least a good sign, havn't seen this since obama in office.

Mar 8, 09 10:49 am  · 
 · 
greenlander1

aspect i lightened up 1/3. depending on what happens I will probably go flat by thursday's close. maybe earlier.

Nice but extreme move today. Wonder how much longer it will go.

Mar 10, 09 12:39 pm  · 
 · 
aspect

the rain finally came, thanks to Roubini saying s&p will hit 600! ha...

congrads to greenlander for the winning trades... i tend to long/short for a while unless i see some obvous signal, usually i settle near the end of month cos that is when our futures settle and the picture is more clear as it approaches... (i think for dow is different, the third friday of the month, rite)...

the position i long is quite safe, i dun mind if drop below that, i'm pretty sure will get back to that level... until now, will let it roll^^ ha

Mar 11, 09 9:50 am  · 
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aspect

ok, citigroup up 60% since tue, i'm gonna kill my friend who told me not to buy last week!

Mar 11, 09 10:09 am  · 
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chupacabra

citis deadcat bounce just made me 60%...hah. I bought at 1.02...sold at 1.66 this morning. And to think that I hate cats.

Mar 11, 09 11:54 am  · 
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greenlander1

I got out of everything this morning too. looks like some upside still left but i got meetings this afternoon so cant watch the close. thurs/ Friday we might retrace back down.

insane the fin bounce we got. sick.

I still think C and prob BAC is toast, Pandit like others just trying to buy time.

Mar 11, 09 1:11 pm  · 
 · 
aspect

as an architect, we have this habit of mapping, follows are some notes i took daily on post it just to check on options movement, based on their volume of transaction to figure there distributions on short put, long put, short call, long call...etc... so as to forecast the market trend... lots of fun^^

Mar 16, 09 11:24 am  · 
 · 
aspect

i also settle my call, my target for rebound in Mar is done... hope i'm not wrong^^

Mar 16, 09 11:25 am  · 
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aspect

i also settle my call today, my target for rebound in Mar is done... hope i'm not wrong^^

Mar 16, 09 11:25 am  · 
 · 
greenlander1

yeh Ive done that, I used to have all these little notes in my wallet like that. But now I got a better broker which maps it all out for me. Even so the math behind these buggers is a pain. options are really the devil for me.

I dont like the feeling when I should be in a position (short) but dont feel comfortable in a position.

Im thinking end of wk will be total shenanigans, not worth playing at all.

Mar 17, 09 12:20 am  · 
 · 

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