ha, i used internet for trading, cos its cheap, so i dun have broker for analysis... the problem is today and yesterday, i try to short at market close and the computer crash on me!! now my short position is not ideal, since the pictures shows future settle shall not be at this level, however, i do see major rebound in april... i could be wrong! ha...
anyway, i think tim geithnar will present his detail rescue plan, this probably his last shot to rescus HIM instead!! if disappoint again, dow jones will straight down...
I had a debate with a friend about how the market would react to GM's bankruptcy. My argument was that it wouldn't affect the market, and he said that it would hurt the market significantly. I'm surprised that with GM filing for bankruptcy, there was a huge rally (although not related to each other). I wonder what the longterm ramifications will be.
Yeah, I could have made more by investing more and staying with Citigroup, but at what cost...when would one get out? Meh, you can never be frustrated when you leave with cash in hand...I can handle the profit I made.
I have 50 shares on Intel longterm and have about 500 shares sitting on a very undervalued energy company. There are opportunities out there but they are very few and far between. Like the Dry Ship Industry...I made a killing off of EXM, PRGN, and SBLK but I would not hod them longterm as that industry is way too volatile for an extended exposure.
I am not trading in anything with a PE higher than 10 right now...there is going to be some falling PE's over the net few years for sure.
july 13, 2008: dow closes at 11,100.54
july 13, 2009: dow closes at 8,331.68
decrease of 2,768.86 in one year (24.9% lower)
i was way off .. and as optimistic as i was last year i am now pessimistic. i'm guessing 6,500 by july 13, 2010 as inflation starts kicking in, the dollar continues to free-fall, and the stimulus continues to continue the recession. i really had no idea about the aig credit default swap crap that was going on a year ago ..
I have not seen any reason to think the current levels are sustainable and am waiting for a sizable pullback as we go down the second "V" of the "W" recovery.
I hope I am wrong, for the sake of jobs and I have been waiting for the pullback for at least 6 months now (I've just ridden the wave, playing very conservatively).
maybe 8 months ago I was 100% back into the market when the dow hit 7400 or there abouts. It had to go up I figured. Went down to about 6400. No biggy. I was still 100% in when the Dow hit 10,000. Now I am 30% in and waiting for that hammer to drop. Any day now folks. Any day now. And then I will be 100% out of the market until we drop to 7000. Just my estimate.
made it through october without a major market swoon and ford even turned a profit?!...i'm normally a pessimist but maybe the world isn't going to hell just yet
yes, they are a lagging indicator, but until there are jobs there really isn't any evidence that there is a 'real' recovery that is sustainable.
The problem I see is that you have all these optimistic traders saying things are good and we will just go sideways for a while. That might be true.
But others think that we are about to enter the second "v" of the "w" recovery, which many think will be worst than the first time (and some are calling for a lower low).
Inflation, higher interest rates, etc., etc.
Stimulus is dying down, but there is also a ton of unspent cash (in the stimulus package).
CIT's bankruptcy doesn't look all that great now. Commercial real estate crash hasn't hit yet, plenty of ARMs still out there, etc., etc.
I don't have any idea, really, but that's why I am hesitant to believe that things are 'good' when I don't see any jobs.
More importantly, I don't see any lending. People are still going bankrupt and others are just barely hanging on because the banks have stopped lending, often times halfway through a project.
But there is also a TON of private cash on the sidelines, ready for any kind of promising investment.
And yes, by the time we see consistent data on jobs it'll probably be past the best point to buy in. But it'll also be a safer place to buy.
Personally, and selfishly, I hope that we do take a plunge and gives a great buying opportunity. Stock up and hold for the long term then.
We take a big plunge or there looks like some real stability, then I'll look to buy, but we've come so far so fast based on speculation that I can't see how it could be sustained.
Anyone have a differing opinion? I have been paying little attention to things as the markets just seemed to aggressive.
Nope, there is no reason whatsoever for being back at this level in this short amount of time. No indicators for this high and nothing pointing to it being able to go higher. Yet, sometimes things just do the ridiculous for the sake of it. Either be on board and try to figure out when to back out with some gains or sit on the sidelines all safe and comfy watching you money make 5%.
Yes. It is possible that the market staggers sideways and we actually do come out of this mess - the economy catches up to the market without a catastrophic tumble. But I ain't betting on it.
I still like the dividend players out there and will, most likely, just wait for a good pullback and then go in for the long term.
We won't be out until we get our debt under control. There's no sign of that. I'm tellin' ya - We're gonna see a whole new generation of this stuff. My short-term prediction is: More volatility (+200 one day -200 the next) & more fear (check the 30% up & down of the VIX over the last few weeks - fear s coming back.
went short at close via SDS @ 36.6, SKF @ 23.79, SMN @9.25
1/6 position of each. Maybe a bit too big as entry but Ill find out whether I get blown out of the water in case employment numbers surprise in the morn....
both VIX/ SPY up today. that is usually pretty bearish when things are overbought.
Dow Jones Predictions?
ha, i used internet for trading, cos its cheap, so i dun have broker for analysis... the problem is today and yesterday, i try to short at market close and the computer crash on me!! now my short position is not ideal, since the pictures shows future settle shall not be at this level, however, i do see major rebound in april... i could be wrong! ha...
anyway, i think tim geithnar will present his detail rescue plan, this probably his last shot to rescus HIM instead!! if disappoint again, dow jones will straight down...
Sold C @ 1.66? Its at 3.15 right now! Although I guess this is how it all works, you just never know.
a very useful blog and become very hot these days since it started in jan.
http://zerohedge.blogspot.com/
some friendly warnings-
http://zerohedge.blogspot.com/2009/04/incredibly-shrinking-market-liquidity.html
http://money.cnn.com/2009/04/10/news/companies/goldman_offering/index.htm
I had a debate with a friend about how the market would react to GM's bankruptcy. My argument was that it wouldn't affect the market, and he said that it would hurt the market significantly. I'm surprised that with GM filing for bankruptcy, there was a huge rally (although not related to each other). I wonder what the longterm ramifications will be.
Yeah, I could have made more by investing more and staying with Citigroup, but at what cost...when would one get out? Meh, you can never be frustrated when you leave with cash in hand...I can handle the profit I made.
I have 50 shares on Intel longterm and have about 500 shares sitting on a very undervalued energy company. There are opportunities out there but they are very few and far between. Like the Dry Ship Industry...I made a killing off of EXM, PRGN, and SBLK but I would not hod them longterm as that industry is way too volatile for an extended exposure.
I am not trading in anything with a PE higher than 10 right now...there is going to be some falling PE's over the net few years for sure.
that is next few years...en EDIT BTN PLEASE...it is 2009 folks.
i sold citi when it was in the 20s and got into a few foreign etfs.
get wrecked US market.
doesn't hurt that CSCO and TRV will replace GM and C in the DJIA on June 8, but summers are usually slow
july 13, 2008: dow closes at 11,100.54
july 13, 2009: dow closes at 8,331.68
decrease of 2,768.86 in one year (24.9% lower)
i was way off .. and as optimistic as i was last year i am now pessimistic. i'm guessing 6,500 by july 13, 2010 as inflation starts kicking in, the dollar continues to free-fall, and the stimulus continues to continue the recession. i really had no idea about the aig credit default swap crap that was going on a year ago ..
can save pics to view the whole^^
I have not seen any reason to think the current levels are sustainable and am waiting for a sizable pullback as we go down the second "V" of the "W" recovery.
I hope I am wrong, for the sake of jobs and I have been waiting for the pullback for at least 6 months now (I've just ridden the wave, playing very conservatively).
i was looking at the graph of this 7 months rebound and i think this is the biggest hoax in history...
the volume, rsi, macd is a down trend which i think is more reliable indication... cos it will cost alot more to fake it than the index...
not to mention, nothing has recovered in my city except stock price & properties...
i dun mind to hit another bottom, so the poor can buy cheap stock...
Im long going into next week but if/ when this bounce happens and then peters out, going aggressively short.
damn those graphs are looking alot like my egress plan for a three story building.
maybe 8 months ago I was 100% back into the market when the dow hit 7400 or there abouts. It had to go up I figured. Went down to about 6400. No biggy. I was still 100% in when the Dow hit 10,000. Now I am 30% in and waiting for that hammer to drop. Any day now folks. Any day now. And then I will be 100% out of the market until we drop to 7000. Just my estimate.
made it through october without a major market swoon and ford even turned a profit?!...i'm normally a pessimist but maybe the world isn't going to hell just yet
I'll believe things when I see jobs being created. Right now, profits are being driven but cuts in spending, not in true growth (or so I read).
Would not be surprised to go below the low's. Hang on folks!
But when it does go, time to go shopping!
"I'll believe things when I see jobs being created"
But wouldn't that be too late? I thought jobs were the last to turn around in a recovery. Especially jobs in architecture...
Not to turn this into sports talk, but thats like being a fan and believing in the team after they've already won the championship.
yes, they are a lagging indicator, but until there are jobs there really isn't any evidence that there is a 'real' recovery that is sustainable.
The problem I see is that you have all these optimistic traders saying things are good and we will just go sideways for a while. That might be true.
But others think that we are about to enter the second "v" of the "w" recovery, which many think will be worst than the first time (and some are calling for a lower low).
Inflation, higher interest rates, etc., etc.
Stimulus is dying down, but there is also a ton of unspent cash (in the stimulus package).
CIT's bankruptcy doesn't look all that great now. Commercial real estate crash hasn't hit yet, plenty of ARMs still out there, etc., etc.
I don't have any idea, really, but that's why I am hesitant to believe that things are 'good' when I don't see any jobs.
More importantly, I don't see any lending. People are still going bankrupt and others are just barely hanging on because the banks have stopped lending, often times halfway through a project.
But there is also a TON of private cash on the sidelines, ready for any kind of promising investment.
And yes, by the time we see consistent data on jobs it'll probably be past the best point to buy in. But it'll also be a safer place to buy.
Personally, and selfishly, I hope that we do take a plunge and gives a great buying opportunity. Stock up and hold for the long term then.
We take a big plunge or there looks like some real stability, then I'll look to buy, but we've come so far so fast based on speculation that I can't see how it could be sustained.
Anyone have a differing opinion? I have been paying little attention to things as the markets just seemed to aggressive.
Nope, there is no reason whatsoever for being back at this level in this short amount of time. No indicators for this high and nothing pointing to it being able to go higher. Yet, sometimes things just do the ridiculous for the sake of it. Either be on board and try to figure out when to back out with some gains or sit on the sidelines all safe and comfy watching you money make 5%.
Yes. It is possible that the market staggers sideways and we actually do come out of this mess - the economy catches up to the market without a catastrophic tumble. But I ain't betting on it.
I still like the dividend players out there and will, most likely, just wait for a good pullback and then go in for the long term.
We won't be out until we get our debt under control. There's no sign of that. I'm tellin' ya - We're gonna see a whole new generation of this stuff. My short-term prediction is: More volatility (+200 one day -200 the next) & more fear (check the 30% up & down of the VIX over the last few weeks - fear s coming back.
i hope you're talking about consumer debt and not government debt... because the net effects of the economy resulting from each is VERY different.
usually at "point-fold" (in deleuzian term) its +200, -200pts... or in stock player's term, big brother is selling it!
went short at close via SDS @ 36.6, SKF @ 23.79, SMN @9.25
1/6 position of each. Maybe a bit too big as entry but Ill find out whether I get blown out of the water in case employment numbers surprise in the morn....
both VIX/ SPY up today. that is usually pretty bearish when things are overbought.
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