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COVID-19 Lay-off Thread

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RickB-Astoria's comment has been hidden
RickB-Astoria

This caught my attention which I think would be helpful for a lot of us here in these times and surely may come to cost us an increase in taxes in the future but something I think we can live with to replenish the amount paid to us over the next 10 years or so.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/one-1200-stimulus-check-wont-cut-it-give-americans-2000-a-month-to-fire-up-the-economy-2020-04-20

Some of this money ultimately comes back to the government directly via income taxes on businesses that we buy from... provide they pay taxes but the government will ultimately recoup the cost over time. Part of it maybe less war spending and use the funds to help the country. I actually read the bill text but that will help many in this time carry through. If this is going to be lengthy, we can use this to help us until the economy recovers. The exact dollar amount per month is not as crucial to me as much as something. Preferably, no amount less than $1,200 a month and for at least 6 months and up to 12 months as the Bill text says unless the need requires additional months but we can see. $2,000 would be nice and help things a bit. (Note: Couples would be twice that of single filers and an amount for per qualifying child.)

Apr 22, 20 3:19 am  · 
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x-jla

Get a job

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x-jla

We can’t stay closed for 12 months. It’s not just money, but career advancement, business growth, skills, etc that’s lost longer shut down lasts.

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archi_dude's comment has been hidden
archi_dude

Ny Times is now confirming community spread in California at least back to mid-January with first community spread death now Feb 6th. Meaning without media hype, low density states didnt notice any difference from a typical flu season. Assumptions and false stats still guiding California policy though. 

Apr 22, 20 9:18 am  · 
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Rusty!

Then make 10s of millions tests available, and get this shit out of the way. Primary reason we are in this predicament right now is because of complete lack of supplies, especially tests. Making a sweeping change in policy because of one study that recruited through Facebook, would also be foolish.

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archi_dude

It was an autopsy performed by the county.

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Rusty!

Single autopsy is even less telling how entire policy should be changed. I was talking about NY Times article about limited testing revealing more people are infected than previously assumed. Get more testing available right away. Go from there.

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urbanity

there are 3 deaths confirmed by autopsy from feb 6th to march 6th in santa clara county. county expects more.

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Chad Miller's comment has been hidden
Chad Miller

Personally I thought the zombie apocalypse would have a lot more swords and crossbows and a lot less gay tigers.  Just sayin'. 

Apr 22, 20 10:49 am  · 
1  · 
wurdan freo's comment has been hidden
wurdan freo

ahahahahaha...  fuck off you fuckin fascist...


de blasio orwellian website flooded with dick pics and the bird

Apr 22, 20 11:05 am  · 
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Chad Miller

Care to try that gain but this time with a coherent thought? Fucking moron.

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curtkram

did you see his link?

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x-jla

Lol. Covid is Deblasio’s dream come true. He said himself that he wanted government to control everything.

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x-jla

Look, if I had my druthers, the city government would determine every single plot of land, how development would proceed. And there would be very stringent requirements around income levels and rents. That’s a world I’d love to see, and I think what we have, in this city at least, are people who would love to have the New Deal back, on one level. They’d love to have a very, very powerful government, including a federal government, involved in directly addressing their day-to-day reality.“. ———-
Deblasio

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x-jla

Quote above by bill

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x-jla

The world govts are using covid as a power grab. Ai Wei Wei says that China has expanded authoritarianism post covid. Have to assume that those with authoritarian dreams have an interest in covid being a scarier threat than the government.

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tduds

One can tell a lot about what someone believes not by what they say, but by what inspires them to say it. It's telling, in this case, that wurdan is very upset by de blasio's "fascism" but not by Trump's.

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x-jla

And can the reverse be true for many liberals?

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SneakyPete

Can it? Yeah, sure, anything's possible. Does posting a question asking make it so? No, and the onus is on you to prove it.

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tduds

I never said it wasn't true for other people just that it's true for wurdan.

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x-jla

Well sneaky, you are very upset by trumps fascism, but not chinas it seems. Damn, should have rearranged the words in the times article below to bait u. Too late.

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SneakyPete

You're projecting, jla, as per usual. I unblocked you to see if you had anything to say worth listening to. My curiosity sated, back on block you go.

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x-jla

No you didn’t. You always say you blocked me but constantly keep replying to my posts.

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archi_dude's comment has been hidden
archi_dude

UC Berkeley John Swartzberg, infectious disease expert from definitely not a right leaning school, is on the record stating there was probably community spread early January and it was mistaken for the flu. So 2.5 months of unmitigated spread on the west coast, no overflowing hospitals, no mass graves and everyone thought it was just a slightly worse flu season? Am I understanding this correctly or missing something? 

Apr 22, 20 11:32 am  · 
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Rusty!

You are desperately jumping into conclusions for personal gain, whatever it may be. Over here in Brooklyn, my local facebook group keeps posting obituaries of prominent local figures who died. My wife's students are losing their parents and family to this thing. 60+ teachers have died so far in NYC. 80+ transit workers have died. 30+ cops have died. While literally tens of thousands going down with extreme sickness. Perhaps California air is not a great vector for disease spread. Who knows. I am not a scientist, and neither are you. Yes, you are missing something by being extremely biased and wanting specific results.

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x-jla

Rusty, evidence that there was covid that far back is not scientific? I don’t understand why you all are so hostile towards good news. It is good news that there are possibly more cases. You are being very biased rusty.

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x-jla

Again, you in NY could be seeing the tip of a much bigger iceberg. That will soon be confirmed or not by antibody testing in NY. They are also doing nationwide testing in Germany. Since when did liberals become science deniers? What you are saying in tantamount to people denying global warming because they are experiencing a colder than normal winter .

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Rusty!

jla-x, you are perhaps missing context of additional exchange I had with Archi-dude. He is saying that these autopsies should be reason enough to open up CA economy RIGHT THIS INSTANT. I am being very cautiously optimistic about a string of good news that came out recently. Scientists are being optimistic as well. Additional testing rollout is a must next step.

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Rusty!

And yes, jla-x, your hot takes are as dumb as a bag of drywall scraps. Same as always.

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archi_dude

Actually Rusty no I didnt say that and past comments I've said theres a more balanced solution. You jumped to that conclusion based on the question I asked. So hmm got you questioning it yourself now too.

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code's comment has been hidden
code

I live in Berkeley, and there was a lot of flu in Dec. and Jan. Everyone in my Oakland arch office got it. But was it Covid? I wouldnt want to test that theory to get " dealt a bad hand" Know what i'm sayin

Apr 22, 20 12:37 pm  · 
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x-jla

Yes, but it’s definitely possible. There were lots of undiagnosed pneumonia cases around that time where people were negative for flu according to doctors. I’m fact, we always have a significant monthly death toll from pneumonia of unknown origins. I was surprised to see how many die from pneumonia. It’s possible the unknown in some of these was covid. I too am like 90% sure I had it back in Feb, but don’t want to take chances either. I had all the symptoms, mildly, and it lasted about 4 weeks which is way longer than I’ve ever been sick before.

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Chad Miller

Keep in mind that COVID is a broad term that encompasses a wide variety of upper respiratory viruses. COVID-19 is the virus that's caused the pandemic we're currently experiencing. On a related note I do not think it's been proven that once you have COVID-19 and recover you are immune. I'm not certain though.

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code

4 weeks, that was the experience in our office, both my PM on one side and the PA on the other got it, our entire row basically

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SneakyPete's comment has been hidden
SneakyPete

I'm not certain though.

Apr 22, 20 2:11 pm  · 
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x-jla's comment has been hidden
x-jla

“Chinese Agents Helped Spread Messages That Sowed Virus Panic in U.S., Officials Say”.  NY Times 


So, this is why I’ve asked lots of times on here why China hid asymptotic cases if they were trying to downplay virus.  Guess panic was the goal   Hmmm



Apr 22, 20 2:13 pm  · 
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curtkram

why do you believe this stuff?

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x-jla

Why do I believe a NY times article?

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SneakyPete

"Officials Say"

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SneakyPete

You suck greedily from the teat of "Officials Say" when it furthers your shiny-hatted narrative.

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x-jla

“Just because your paranoid...don’t mean they’re no after you....”. Kurt Cobain.

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SneakyPete

I'm pretty sure Kurt could spell better than you, and that's a Heller quote.

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x-jla

*Doesn’t. Yeah, iPhone... Ah, it is indeed a Heller quote. I didn’t know that.

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x-jla

As do you sneaky pete when “officials say” that the Russians interfered with election...

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x-jla

The Chinese are secretly buying up deprecated assets rn FYI, expanding authoritarian controls, and flexing military up.

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SneakyPete

Do you have a point or do you simply revel in spewing factoids, conspiracies, and sound bytes?

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b3tadine[sutures]

Literally how we got here; Official Say

I think Ministry is working a new album with this title.

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x-jla

My point is that perhaps panic and economic collapse was the goal. This could be a world economic war that looks like an innocent world pandemic. If you believe that conspiracy theories are truth seeking anything below the surface, then yes it’s a conspiracy.

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x-jla

My point is that perhaps panic and economic collapse was the goal. This could be a world economic war that looks like an innocent world pandemic. If you believe that conspiracy theories are truth seeking anything below the surface, then yes it’s a conspiracy.

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Non Sequitur

You're watching too many bad movies. It's too easy to invent agentcy and squint hard until what you see brings you comfort.

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x-jla

Oh, so why would China hide asymptotic cases from tally, if including them would cut fatality rate in half? Seems inconsistent with the narrative that China was downplaying the threat. The Chinese govt is very calculated with the data released. Why do you give authoritarian regimes like China the benefit of the doubt? Are you so naive to think that the world governments are not in a constant battle for control and economic/military supremacy? China and Russia have been at this for a while. I think we are justified in at least exploring the possibility that China is capitalizing on the chaos it’s causing to its geopolitical rivals.

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Non Sequitur

because it's china.


 · 
b3tadine[sutures]

..

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tduds

Do you mean asymptomatic? Asymptotic could apply but it makes less sense.

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x-jla

Asymptomatic.

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CodesareFUN

Zoom officials say that I’m currently wearing pants on my current call, but that’s a lie.

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Impact of asymptomatic infection and acquired immunity on the spread and control of Ebola


.....forecasts that ignore naturally acquired immunity from asymptomatic infections overestimate incidence late in epidemics....


...the model without asymptomatic infections projects 50% more cumulative symptomatic cases than the model that accounts for asymptomatic infection.

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lol, I posted this on March 31, 2020 over here

"jla-x, asymptomatic(note that the first line is 'not to be confused with asymptotic')"

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is this about architecture again EA?

asymptote architecture?



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x-jla

EA, don’t understand your point? If you type asymptomatic into iPhone it autocorrects to asymptotic. So what?

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RickB-Astoria

turn off autocorrect. Its dictionary is not complete. Sometimes, having a REAL dictionary near by to make sure the words you are using is the correct word like google search. I suppose you have a desktop or laptop computer with Windows or MacOS.

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Asymptomatic ... not on my iPhone. Sounds like the issue is found between the iPhone and your chair.

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It’s also a pattern with you and ‘big’ words. Go back to the bottom of page 3 in this thread to see your issue with epidemiology

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x-jla

Seems like you have a problem with arguing substance.

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Non Sequitur's comment has been hidden
Non Sequitur

.

Apr 22, 20 2:16 pm  · 
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CodesareFUN

Guess another name for cocaine is the Holy Spirit.

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CodesareFUN

Also if you take him out of a church and put him on a street corner he gets an involuntary 72 hr hold in a padded room.

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x-jla

Crack is whack

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revolutionary poet

Since this is a lay-off thread.

After you collect the more than usual unemployment rate you could go to your congress person and sign-on for some type of class action civil lawsuit or something similar to what Missouri is trying.

You say "Poet, but why and how?"

I says "Well, can you really sue your congress person and government who just sent you unemployment money?  Well you could but the government is never wrong.  You can go to the source, go to the outsider, go to the entity that put your nation in this position to begin with. It's in your government's interest as well, they'll represent you as well. Teamwork."

Apr 22, 20 5:33 pm  · 
1  · 
RickB-Astoria's comment has been hidden
RickB-Astoria

Walking away from this now and wait to see when this returns to anything remotely sensible.

Apr 22, 20 9:52 pm  · 
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Chad Miller

Clear, concise, and under 200 words. Good job!

1  · 
Non Sequitur

Sentence structure and verb tense still awkward. B-.

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betonbrut

That is the first post from Rick that I actually read from start to finish!

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Chad Miller

NS - small steps, small steps.

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joseffischer's comment has been hidden
joseffischer

Those ABI numbers just posted are abysmal.  For those still working, what's the office feel and how are the higher-ups spinning "everything will be fine" any actual info to back up their claims?  We're back to doing the type of work I could find on the side, and if I brought it to the firm's attention back in good times, they would laugh and tell me it's too small for them.


Apr 23, 20 10:46 am  · 
1  · 
square.

my office is one of the lucky ones. 90% of our work is "essential." no changes, even more projects on the way.

1  · 
x-jla's comment has been hidden
x-jla

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cnbc.com/amp/2020/04/23/new-york-antibody-study-estimates-13point9percent-of-residents-have-had-the-coronavirus-cuomo-says.html


More good news.  Like I said, let’s not be too quick with the layoffs.  



Apr 23, 20 12:14 pm  · 
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Chad Miller

Is there any proof that once you have COVID-19 you're immune?

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Non Sequitur

Hey, a survey on 3k people... that's good enough to extrapolate to the whole country! eye roll. Let's see this again when there are a few extra zeros at the end of the sample size. Until then, the overwhelming scientific consensus stands instead of preliminary rumblings.

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x-jla

Chad, no. There have been possible reinfections in South Korea in a minority of people. Think they were all Very mild though.

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x-jla

Non, they are doing studies in multiple areas now. Germany is trying to test entire country.

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tduds

"Hey, a survey on 3k people... that's good enough to extrapolate to the whole country!" FWIW that's much larger than almost every academic / medical study. Statistically, it's more than enough to accurately extrapolate.

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Non Sequitur

Thanks Tduds for that point. I am surprised that 3k is considered a good number. Likely will require a meta analysis of several similar studies to determine reliable results.

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square.

The testing results also may be artificially high because “these are people who were out and about shopping,” Cuomo added. “They were not people who were in their home, they were not people isolated, they were not people who were quarantined who you could argue probably had a lower rate of infection because they wouldn’t come out of the house.”

yes, some good news. but as usual you're trying desperately hard to extrapolate a piece of news to your larger political bias (aka let's open the economy). again, would be great if this thread were dedicated to real information about layoffs, not politically motivated speculation. instead jla-x has completely taken over this thread with their ramblings.

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tduds

Sure, more never hurts. I'm always amazed at how, intuitively, sample sizes of polls & stuff seem remarkably small but manage to yield fairly accurate results.

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x-jla

Square, no I’m not. If you go to page one you will see that I was calling for a 30-45 day total quarantine to stop this. I’m adjusting my position based on new data. I suspected this from the beginning, but now it seems there is some preliminary data that points to this conclusion. I’m not saying to open anything right now. You are reframing my argument to create a polarized position to more easily discredit and argue against.

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x-jla

However, if science says that x people have low chance of mortality and severe illness, and y people have high chance, then x people should be able to restart economy while y people continue to shelter. We are splitting resources amongst x and y. We should save those for y only, because this may last a long long time for them, and x can provide for selves again.

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x-jla

Based on age and health, we could possibly create a 2 year UBI for high risk people only. This would be a more effective way to mitigate death. Let young people keep the engine going, and lets protect the most vulnerable rather than cutting a check to Balkins.

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x-jla

Square, for the record, nothing is more relevant to layoffs than the status of the virus. These studies are being done to weigh the possibility of opening the economy. As a business owner, this type of information is very important. The possibility of opening in a month vs a year can change how we approach layoffs. From a business perspective, if we can hold off for a month, it’s not worth laying off staff. Investors and businesses keep an eye on trends like this.

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Rusty!

jla-x, the news you posted isn't really news per se. Here in NYC most of us suspect we have been exposed at some time or the other. There was just no way to confirm that. Also, viral load exposure matters a lot as well. Someone sick sneezing into your mouth is significantly worse than you touching a door knob that may have micro droplet on it. Your body responds differently to a minor exposure then when it gets completely overwhelmed by billions of virus units. This is why healthcare workers of any age are at a much higher risk, and many have died even though they are not in your "group B". People in your "Group A" are much better off limiting exposure regardless of anything else. Your analysis is a gross simplification of a complex issue, as always.

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Non Sequitur

"cutting a cheque to Balkins" Thanks for that one, made me laugh.

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square.

jla-x, you're sucking up all the air.. case and point, 4 posts in a row. some people come here for information, not only your "thoughts"

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RickB-Astoria

Since nearly everyone lost their jobs and are behind and it will take considerably more time to rehire those who lost their jobs than it did for them to lose the jobs as well as a lot of people running businesses. 

So a UBI for 18 months to 36 months (depending on need) for those 'at-risk' people and a 6-9 month check for $1200 to $2000 a month per filer (joint-filer is double with), with an additional $500 /mo. per qualifying child, for those needing income to take care of basic needs and being in position to pay the rent they are behind and food and necessities until employment happens but those determined to be "at-risk" may receive such money from the time diagnosed or when this UBI begins (whichever is latter) to the terminal point of the program. 

In the beginning of reopening, we need to cover basically everyone who will be earning below threshold amount. Those who are super rich don't need any such handout. If they earn $1,000,000 a year or more (with the last two years earning $1,000,000 or more), they should be earning enough off interest alone to take care of their basic needs. So, no for the Trump family. They don't qualify for interest on their money should more than cover for their needs. We need to both provide seed money so to speak for people to still be able to buy food, supplies, etc. This money would help businesses get back up and going. When we re-open for business, what are we going to have money wise to buy food, buy things from our local stores, shops, etc. Where are we going to have money to have a hair cut. It is a fair guess that at least 1/2 to 3/4 of those laid off, only has maybe 2-3 months at best that they can sustain themselves and they are flat broke with $0.00. They might get it stretched out to 4 months from March/April when they got laid off at very paltry levels. Employment back to pre-COVID 19 levels will not happen until Spring or Summer levels. Those at risk would be able to continue a bit longer is what I would suggest. 

At first, we get everyone back on their feet (somewhat) financially and then we limit the amount that continues until sometime in say.... 2022 or 2023. The payout per month could incrementally decrease after say.... 2022. This is what I would suggest. Do the most we can for this country's people and continue to help those categorized at risk so they can mitigate their risks and not feel they need to be restarting this country as much.... much as you suggest. There is other money we need to provide to healthcare sector. I can accept limiting the $2000 a month to 6 months but I think we have to be able to help those in need be able to survive when businesses begins to open. 

The COVID-19 situation is going to be a risk of multiple waves of the epidemic for years until we have an actual vaccine. (Some reference reading:

https://www.historyofvaccines.org/content/articles/vaccine-development-testing-and-regulation ). 

It can easily be 4-6 years before we get to Phase I Vaccine trial. It can be a decade before we reach Phase III vaccine trial. I doubt we will be at that phase in 5 years. There maybe some medication or drug for medical treatment within 3 years but vaccines tends to take longer to develop based on data of development of other vaccines. If lucky and what is needed does not require as much time to develop a vaccine for coronavirus, because of previous work on SARS and MERS and adapting the vaccine for a new strain of a substantially similar virus, it could be possible to see it within 3 years at Phase III. 

I am merely assuming duration of time based on normal development of a vaccine. I would caution assuming we will have vaccines out to the masses before the end of the year without great potential risks by massively cutting corners in the vaccine development, testing, and approval process.

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x-jla

Rusty, it’s from the “news”. Other points you made have nothing to do with the topic. square, it’s easier to read that way than one long post imo.

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Rusty!

jla-x you live in buttfuck nowhere, are completely removed from epicenters of breakouts, are staring at your screen and deciding how public policy should play out. Let adults make decisions.

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archi_dude

Exactly, why is he in a lockdown? Why not basic mitigation and social distancing?

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x-jla

Your debate skills are weak. You sound like a know-it-all college freshman teachers pet.

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x-jla

Rick, your last paragraph is important and supports another angle to my point. We need to prioritize vaccinations. Give to those in higher risk first.

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x-jla

Lived in NYC most of my life btw. You

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x-jla

Lived in NYC most of my life btw. You

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x-jla

are making assumptions Rusty.

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Rusty!

jla-x have I confused you for someone else? I thought you were a rural contrarian/libertarian that has been like that for many years. If you are actually in NYC, or are from here, then your views are even more heartless/sociopathic. We didn't take the warnings from Italy seriously and have paid a big price for it in NYC. Now we are warning rest of the country, and are being laughed at. This virus will not spread in suburban/rural areas like it spread here. It will spread slower, but that will be the only difference. But you are free to armchair quarterback as you please. It's just annoying to watch.

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x-jla

20% of nyc has been infected. Do the math.

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Rusty!

I think it's much higher than 20%, personally. This doesn't change anything like you think it does.

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x-jla

Yes it does. It definitely eases some anxiety that I and many others have been dealing with for one.

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x-jla

Rusty, yes I am from nyc, lived there 25 years, I live on the west coast now. A lower cfr is good news. I’m not sure what you are talking about. It literally means that less people will die. What’s your malfunction? Did this spoil your hope of a socialist takeover? I don’t understand. Cuomo is happy, people are happy, things are looking better. The worst case scenario has been drastically lowered. This is good. Resources can be better allocated. That’s also good. What’s the beef? I seriously don’t get your point of view. Do you want to keep the economy closed forever? Until trump gets out of office?

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x-jla

or, are you so tribal and emotionally invested in some fake bundle package ideology that you can’t see beyond? Trump say that corona not as bad...science say not as bad...trump bad=science bad! How you sound to non tribal free thinkers like myself

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square.

if you don't understand the point of view, then move on. your obsession with these speculations is bizarre. talk about these things with people who live within 100 miles of you. stop trying to convince new yorkers who, by the way, are not "happy" right now; please don't make assumptions for those of us actually going through this.

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Rusty!

jla-x. Disconnect here is that every single governmental entity is actively discussing how to sensibly reopen everything. That is the plan. It has been discussed to death (literally). While you have a lot of leaders who are trying to make the best informed decision, you also have governors of Georgia and Florida just opening shit willy nilly. When you personally talk about reopening it makes you sound like you are in the later camp. OPEN AT ALL COSTS. It's irresponsible and downright criminal.

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x-jla

Do you live in a cave? It’s literally the top story in every news outlet right now. I don’t give a shit if NYers decide to stay inside forever until no one ever dies again. NY is not the entire country dumbass. NY antibody testing is a sneak peak of what most of the country can expect in the true CFR. Are you slow? Grown ups make decisions based on science, not how many veins pop out of Rachel Maddows neck when she barks, or how scary it looks outside from my limited vantage point.

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x-jla

until you can explain how a lower cfr is bad news stfu.

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Rusty!

"It’s literally the top story in every news outlet right now." "Rachel Maddows" It does sound you spend most of your day watching Fox news. Fatality rate being confirmed low is great news. But we were never dealing with bubonic plague. Just watching out for our health compromised fellow citizens who count in tens of millions. Nuance will never be your friend. "Do you live in a cave?" No I live in NYC. But you do. This is called projecting.

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x-jla

Nuance is not your thing huh. There is a huge difference between 3% CFR and 0.3% CFR. All deaths are bad, but more deaths are worse. Less death is good. What’s your point? Oh yeah, you don’t have a point. You were trying to throw spears at the tribal foe of your imagination so that your fellow tribesmen can give you virtual hi-fives.

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x-jla

I thought I told you to go F yourself?

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Rusty!

This feels like a Monty Python skit. "I'm here to have an argument with a self proclaimed moderate republican". And you are talking to a bot.

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RickB-Astoria

jla-x, 

I was mainly talking about the possibility of the vaccination killing the patients because it wasn't tested properly. However, I do support the notion that you are getting at regarding getting vaccinations out to those at risk. It would take more than the T virus to kill me so I can wait when it comes to vaccination but it should be priorities for administering to those at greatest risk but safety of proper testing of the vaccine is crucial though. 

So in early trials, they will have to test administration under the standards which I am not qualified by education and training to determine but I think if it is safe enough and therefore approved, then it probably should be prioritized like you said. Medicines for medical treatment for people who invariably may contract the illness of COVID-19 should be prioritized by those having severe symptoms until there is sufficient supply. 

Even medicines goes through a vetting process and trials but they maybe able to be developed and tested, monitored, etc. in a quicker fashion than a vaccine for some science based reason but in general, it normally takes awhile. Usually about half the time normally for a vaccine to be approved by the USDA. But accelerated schedule of development and testing could make it possible to see in 12-24 months but I suspect it usually takes closer to 3 to 5 years or so.

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x-jla

I love Monty Python, but that doesn’t make sense. Can you form coherent counterpoints?

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x-jla

Dear Cuomo and fellow NYers, stop antibody testing and send money to AOC! She needs it. It doesn’t matter if 100% of us will die from covid, or one in a million. We will behave the same and you have no need to know. Please base future decisions and anxiety levels on the bulge of veins in Rachel Maddows neck. -Rusty

 · 
RickB-Astoria

Rusty is right in that it usually is worse and more likely you'll get the illness from the coronavirus from someone sneezing or coughing in close distance than necessarily on the door knob (especially if it is frequently cleaned every hour with Lysol or other similar disinfectant which chemically kills the virus in about 10-30 minutes. If you happen to touch it right after someone with the illness sneezes or coughs then that would be a problem for you at greatest risk to those who are first to touch it. Every other person that touches the door handle diminishes the effect on the following person over time. The virus can survive on metal for up to like 3 days so you will want to where gloves and disinfect them. Lysol and similar disinfectants and UV-C germicidal lamps will disinfect surfaces of the virus but they can't really be used to deal with the virus once it is inside you. You can spray Lysol on your hands and then thoroughly clean your hands before touching your face, mouth, or nose area and reduce or minimize your exposure risk. However, if you didn't, you could still get sick by the virus and infectious even if you are asymptomatic. Most should have or experience some signs of the virus. The virus spreads through similar means and methods as the common cold or the seasonal flu but at an accelerated rate and symptoms can be particular bad.

 · 
archi_dude

I mean we dont need to debate anymore. With states opening up we get a front row seat to who made the bad call.

 · 
RickB-Astoria

True. Where I am, things aren't quite opening up that much. Things are being done on a very incremental manner over time not a rush dash. Whatever the case may be, stay healthy as you can and maintain appropriate social distancing and extra measures of disinfecting yourself and what not. 

Some decisions made by some governors may not be sound scientifically and more about following their Cobra Commander (Trump). While I do or would love to see the economy return to norm but at what cost? I know there are concerns regarding career but guess what, it's a setback.... but ARCHITECTS don't retire. They practice until they die like Frank Lloyd Wright. 

Ok, I know that retiring maybe important but this isn't one of those professions that you physically can't do if you go over a certain age like sports where you can't perform athletically to a decent level as you would if you were in your late teens and early 20s when you get into your mid to late 30s or 40s. We are basically a desk job with on-site visits and conversations with clients and maybe the occassional crawling in a crawl space but a person can do that for quite some time in their life and then hire younger folks to do it when you're in your 50s or 60s or later. 

Consider this, you can very well practice architecture into your 70s or 80s just fine even if not full time and make up whatever loss you make during a 6 month to 2 years of unemployment and I know it sucks because we just went through some sh-t 10-12 years ago and it seems like it was just yesterday. I know. 

Like you said, we'll see. I don't expect a sudden on-rush of demand for services but I'll keep my eyes open for such a possibility if it does.

 · 
square.

I mean we dont need to debate anymore. With states opening up we get a front row seat to who made the bad call.

let's follow archi_dude's best post yet. even the don ain't happy with georgia right now.. will be an interesting test case.

 · 
Non Sequitur's comment has been hidden
Non Sequitur
archi_dude

Non why wouldn't you factor in asymptomatic cases? Doesnt seem to make much sense to only calculate based off of people experiencing severe symptoms who only make up 20% of total cases. Not sure I understand their logic.NY times stated today NY probably have 2.2 million total cases not the 290k or whatever. 0.7% is abig difference than 5% no? California likely has 440000 so a 0.14% still worse than the flu though.

 · 
archi_dude

Clearly I'm in the minority here so just trying to understand the logic.

 · 

I'll link this again - not corona, but Ebola, and in short, if you don't include asympotmatic into the estimate you'll be way off (which is why more testing would help) link

 · 
Non Sequitur

Apologies gentlemen, I got about 50 notifications from this thread yesterday so I said fuck that, I'm not digging through this just in case there was something worth replying to... then I remembered I dropped the 2 links to science-based-medicine.org. My intent was not to mic drop these and walk away feeling all high & mighty but to add to the very selective POV expressed above. Discounting the asymptomatic cases is explained in the article here:

Now let’s take a closer look at the case fatality rate. Some have argued that the true number of cases (the denominator) is much higher because there are many unrecognized asymptomatic or minimally symptomatic cases. This is true but misleading. First, this doesn’t really affect the “case fatality” rate, if we define cases as those diagnosed with COVID-19. It is still meaningful to say that if you are diagnosed with COVID-19, the mortality rate is about 5%

I would point out, however, that just diluting the denominator with asymptomatic cases doesn’t really tell us anything about the disease burden. It makes the case fatality rate lower – by making the number of cases much higher. In the end, the number of deaths and morbidity is what we care about.

furthermore

“Facts are stubborn things, but statistics are pliable.”
― Mark Twain

1  · 

per my link though, it's an important part of modeling and per the Ebola cases, to avoid over estimation. because I can assure you this will happen, once the dust settles they'll realize why they over estimated and everyone who lost their job will then veer towards over reach by government and possibly conspiracy theories...in short science will lose another one.

 · 
archi_dude

It's a 5% mortality rate *if you show symptons* it's a 0.3-0.5% mortality rate overall. From what I noticed this is something not fully grasped by most people right now. Sad the article above wants to continue that scare mongering.

 · 
Non Sequitur

Archi, it's not scare mongering, it's about using either end of the statistical approaches to make one's point. Neither option is 100% but how it's explained in the article makes it clear why including the asymptomatic waters down the discussion.

 · 
Non Sequitur

Sheds, I may be wrong in my assumption, but I believe there is a greater body of research on Ebola than C19. More to the point, your article ends with this (emphasis mine): 

All of the conclusions above depend on whether asymptomatic infections are common, and protective against future infection. Further, strategies for leveraging protective immunity will depend on the development and validation of assays (testing) that can reliably identify individuals who are effectively protected against re-infection.

The article finishes with a recommendation for further research with the hypothesis that blood transfusion from the recovered/immune donors (who's existence needs confirmation) as treatment.  Just like JLA earlier posts, one paper is not enough to over-turn the global consensus by itself.

 · 

NS there is more research of course. My point was more testing in general otherwise "consensus" is exactly that - just "consensus" not really Facts per say. I'm just hypothetically pointing out the backfire that will come from over hyping a situation, it plays right into conspiracy theories.

 · 

by definition if the government controlled everything with the media, that would be a conspiracy theory, so you see the issue right - facts and conspiracy theories will flip if you're on the end - I lost my job, life, etc...and everything the government and media spun was way off.

 · 
archi_dude

"Waters it down". Hmm I just dont see it that way. Watering it down would be saying cases with such and such disease dont count. Whereas including all cases would be the true number. These lockdowns and case tracking assumptions were based on WHO numbers that your article was listing. The real mortality rate would probably sway peoples support of the lockdown. additionally even if you dont think that's a good idea. At the very minimum it would show that contact tracking is no longer feasible. You are going to contact trace 2.2 million people in New York, 440,000 in California? It allows you to see the full magnitude of the issue and see if it even makes sense.

 · 
RickB-Astoria

Careful, there are asymptomatic individuals and minimally symptomatic but there are symptomatic people who may actually die without ever being tested for the virus. With shortage of testing, they aren't going to always be testing if a person was COVID-19 positive after they died unless they have been informed by people that the person showed signs of symptoms before dying. Even then, that may not be the case. Unless tests are done right away, they may lose the window of opportunity to test if someone had the coronavirus because many different kinds of viruses/flus will have symptom results and a late post-mortem testing would be harder to be conclusive of whether a person died of coronavirus or another illness. Testing is an important part of this. What we need is a President that gets supplies produced and out to where they need..... not say he'll get it to them and then hold it up for some political b.s. reasons in a time when politics should be set aside completely for the sake of the people and the country. Sadly, we have an idiot as POTUS.

 · 
RickB-Astoria

Ancient Sheds, Just to remind you the media is an abstract and depending on the media station. You are just one little nanoscopic microcosm in the overall situation. Media doesn't draw much attention on architecture profession because this profession only amounts to an insignificant number of people unemployed. There is a bigger world and you are just one of the "Others" (or its an unspecified component of a category like "Construction sector" in statistics of unemployment in terms of sectors. So yeah, it's not national or even regional newsworthy to talk about you and those laid off in the firm you worked at.

 · 
x-jla

archi_dude, it’s about 0.5 for people not showing symptoms or not getting tested. I know many many nyers who were sick and denied testing early on. In my state u only get a test if I’m your death bed. Talk about testing bias.

 · 
x-jla

.2 or .5 % is still higher than flu, but it’s also a fact that it’s way less deadly than the flu for kids and teens. None of the antibody testing was done on peolle younger than 18. Including kids and teens, the overall numbers are probably even lower.

 · 
archi_dude's comment has been hidden
archi_dude

Wanted to post a picture of our site working spaced out, masks/ handkerchiefs, ridiculous amount of handwashing stations ect. But no ones wearing their damn safety glasses because they fog! Ha ha we'll get on that one but morale is good, we've staggered our shifts same with office staff and only have spaced out meetings outside in the lay down yard. Still working but safely!

Apr 23, 20 7:18 pm  · 
 · 
RickB-Astoria

There's that glass-x stuff. Use it on the glasses for anti-fog. That's an option but that's an non-relevant subject.

 · 
dominiond

SBA loans and CARES ACT- has anyone's firm gotten a loan? We did (luckily) and are squirreling it away because who the F knows where this is all going... we did 10% pay cuts for senior level staff and 5% staff for others. Haven't had to lay off yet...hoping we don't have to...

I don't understand why our firm is being tone deaf on questions about return to work/remote schedules...obviously, we can do it- just ego seems to make the senior leadership think we have to go back to the 20th century "normal" of everyone slogging to the office... are others having that issue in the office? Thanks and take care all-


Apr 23, 20 7:42 pm  · 
1  · 
Bench

Management wants people to come back to work as per normal, because any WFH alternative is not feasible? That seems a bit nuts ...

1  · 

Any secrets on how to get that SBA stuff? No staff at the moment (thanks Virus) but I started this firm with long distance internet WFH and see no issue with it, especially as a small office I do 95% of the client interaction and site visits. Human interaction is great, but most this job as architect entails if not in the field is done on a computer and you can simply call someone if speaking is better. So I don't really understand the anti WFH unless you are heavily field orientated firm?

 · 
Chad Miller

We're only a 12 person firm but we are all working from home. Most of us dislike it as everything is really slow since WFH was thrown together. The three partners want everyone to be safe and WFH though. Decent people.

1  · 
square.

interesting; we're roughly the same size and everybody it taking it on well, and even feeling more productive in certain ways. i don't think anyone prefers it every single day, but most of us feel there's no reason we couldn't do this at least 1-2 days a week whenever things return to "normal."

1  · 
Apple_Juice_Yes

@dominion - just curious, how big is your firm and what region?

 · 
Chad Miller

square - I think it's due to the horrible lag we get while using Revit and other high demand programs. We're doing remote access into our office PCs so things are slow unless your have cable or fiber internet. Even then things seem to be about 20% slower.

 · 
RickB-Astoria's comment has been hidden
RickB-Astoria

Use a separate computer for Revit from the one you are using for say.... Zoom or other conferencing/ meeting programs. Unless you are using some kind of internet collaboration feature, the internet would get a little bit tapped for that but it might not feel like 20% slower as expressed. Good internet service would be ideal if you can have something better than in the mud dial-up or very low end broadband or ISDN or whatever services.

 · 
Chad Miller's comment has been hidden
Chad Miller

Shut up Rick. You need to have Revit on your computer to do a remote login from you home PC to the office PC.

 · 
square.

chad, interesting.. yes, i've been surprised at how well our internet is holding up, and it does make it feel pretty seamless . i use a combination of vpn and remote login

 · 
Chad Miller

Yeah we're just using remote login, no VPN.

 · 
RickB-Astoria's comment has been hidden
RickB-Astoria

Chad Miller, conference programs like Zoom or most others don't need Revit. I do agree with you about needing Revit on the computer you are using Revit to connect with the office PC. Use a separate computer with Revit to login to the server WHEN you need to. The point I was getting at which YOU did not get is you are taking CPU load of running a separate program like a conference program and other activities to something like a laptop next to the desktop. Then you use the desktop with Revit whatever you need to connect to the office PC with it. The PC in the office is the server/repository for collaborative work with Revit but if you want to have video conference or whatever with your work colleague.... that doesn't have to be done through Revit itself. F---, the office PC is kind of irrelevant for that. Are you understanding what I am getting at? 

If you have conference streaming, web browsing, etc. offloaded from your PC that has Revit, you free up resources on the desktop PC running Revit. One of the performance gain is more free memory in RAM so less use of virtual memory (your slow ass hard drive- when compared to RAM) If you don't have a desktop PC, then use your laptop and use your smart phone for Zoom meeting (or use the Skype's new Meet Now) to conference with your project team. 

The ONLY thing you should be running on the computer running Revit *IS* Revit other than the underlying operating system stuff if you want maximum performance. It's a huge demanding program that is a hog on system resources. Therefore, use two computers instead of one. Yeah, a smart phone is a computer by the way.


 · 
RickB-Astoria's comment has been hidden
RickB-Astoria

Do you understand the principle of thrashing? Here are some information for what it is: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thrashing_(computer_science) and https://www.techopedia.com/definition/4766/thrashing - so yeah Revit on mediocre free ram resources begins using virtual memory (hard drive) more and whenever hard drive is used, there is a performance penalty and doesn't take much to be noticeable in real world performance reduction.

If you are an architect in a city (not some rural farm pasture out in butt---- nowhere land, you probably have 100 Mbps to gigabit service at home.

 · 
Chad Miller's comment has been hidden
Chad Miller

Rick - you are a moron. You really have no idea how a zoom style meeting works in an architectural firm.

 · 
RickB-Astoria's comment has been hidden
RickB-Astoria

I know how a Zoom meeting works. It works the same regardless of your end use. There isn't a separate Zoom meeting app for architecture than there is for every other damn field. I know about different pay tiers of Zoom so relax. 

 · 
RickB-Astoria's comment has been hidden
RickB-Astoria

Sorry but there isn't a singular method of how Zoom is used in architecture. Each firm like each business or organization's way of implementing for use varies.

 · 
bofillintheblank

Got let go this A.M. after trying to log in to the VPN and my credentials were blocked. Had to call them to get the news. 

Apr 24, 20 8:13 am  · 
 ·  1

Architects are such wimps! Beta types. We wonder why Contractors always win - Alpha types.

 · 
CodesareFUN

That is such a bullshit way to go about things, yet so common. A couple of my friends had the same thing happen. It sucks now but you’ll be better off at the next place.

 · 
midlander

i was talking to a friend who found out his salary was cut last month after 2 paychecks in a row came up short. he thought it was a withholding mistake - accounting kept deferring him until finally the regional director admitted it :/ I guess they hoped to use ignorance to boost morale. (not an architect btw, unrelated field)

 · 
sp429

I'm so sorry to hear that... they could have at least given you a call...

Apr 24, 20 10:51 am  · 
 · 
archieb

Signed the offer letter. Gave my two week notice. I was strung along for those two weeks by the new employer only for them to call me at 5 PM onFriday to tell me I won't be starting on Monday. Zero indication that was a possibility for those two weeks.

A week later I get a two sentence email saying offer is rescinded and to fuck off.

Apr 24, 20 12:02 pm  · 
 · 
molten

Jesus. I understand that firms can't take on new people right now but at least give people a head's up. This whole thing is really bringing out people's true colors.

 · 
Phantom

Archieb,

I know the feeling. The same thing happened to me, my initial start date was pushed back 3 weeks and then the week prior to the new start date got an email rescinding the offer. Talk about bad luck....  I graduated in 2009 on top of it; dejavu. 

 · 
CodesareFUN

That’s a name and shame for sure, screw burning a bridge. That’s a firm you want nothing to do with.

1  · 
liberty bell

I mean, if you’re anon here, there’s absolutely no reason not to name and shame.

1  · 
Fancy1118

Yeah - I really want to know what firm did that. It's so unethical.

 · 
code

just like in 08' ,soon people will be working for free again on strung along on a pro bono project that never materializes

Apr 24, 20 12:33 pm  · 
 · 
archanonymous

We should be naming names here. 

Who acted shitty and didn't take care of their employees (or even bothered to extend common courtesies) so that their staffing and talent pools can wither and die.

Apr 24, 20 1:17 pm  · 
2  · 
CodesareFUN

Agreed. Firms treating people like shit right now treat them like shit anyway and need to die out.

1  · 
peterjones

BUMP BUMP

 · 
amarchy

Gensler did. But it’s really no surprise the corporate mega giant always puts profits over people. It’s why they are a billion dollar company. They will do whatever it takes to keep those margins high. Profits, Clients, Employees. That’s their order.

1  · 
liberty bell

I mean, if you’re anon here, there’s absolutely no reason not to name and shame.

 · 
code's comment has been hidden
code

after the 08' recession, I worked at one firm as 1099 for 3 years, very low pay, long hours. That firm died out and the movers came and took all the furniture

Apr 24, 20 1:45 pm  · 
 · 
revolutionary poet's comment has been hidden
revolutionary poet

Dear Chgina,

knock it off. oh you did.

toodles

- so like my dad was skulls and bones, I was like some fruity fraternity

Apr 25, 20 12:52 am  · 
 · 
RickB-Astoria's comment has been hidden
RickB-Astoria

For sake of information, this is something from the Oregon Synod Bishop Emeritus which was presented mostly from his wife who is a health professional and goes into some good info regardless of your view on religion. After all this COVID-19 issue isn't a matter of religious view or lack of. 

It's kind of informative. While it is not about layoff issues but it can help understand that while "flattening the curve" will tend to have a longer protracted out scenario but it lowers death rate in general because health care can attend to those (and possibly save lives) of those within capacity. When the pandemic case is exceeding the capacity of health care system, the health care will attend the care of those they can until they reach capacity and the rest that maybe in need of health care won't receive the care and will have higher risk of fatality. The problem is the pneumonia situation. For many, this will be a deathly situation. 

For you life and those you love and care for, do not listen to Trump. Listen to health care professionals. For the love of anything worth loving, do not take Donald Trump's suggestions like injecting into your bloodstream chemicals from disinfectants or otherwise. You will most certainly have an extremely high risk of dying. Do not use disenfectants or any such products in manner inconsistent with the instructions on the label. I don't buy it for a second that Trump was being "sarcastic". That's just after the fact spin doctoring after Trump has been caught making a fool of himself as we know he is and proven to the world countless times that he's an idiot.

Apr 25, 20 4:52 am  · 
 · 
x-jla

It’s called Darwinism.

 · 
RickB-Astoria

Darwinism is a philosophy not reality. I don't subscribe to any of that pre-destination bullshit.

 · 
x-jla

So you’re saying it’s good to drink Lysol?

 · 
RickB-Astoria

No.

 · 
x-jla

Sounds like it.

 · 
tduds

Somehow I still have stuff to do.

keeping these fingers crossed.

Apr 27, 20 12:24 pm  · 
1  · 

the turn is coming, I can feel the take-off happening starting today.

 · 
x-jla

I felt like I hit a brick wall when this first happened, then about a week ago I started getting an abnormally high amount of leads. I think construction and design will suffer more down the line when the foreclosures start flooding the RE market.

 · 
x-jla

I do residential landscape design/build, so I’m sure that my experience is not representative of the whole. People are home rn thinking about the projects they have been wanting to do. This re-focus on domestic life is interesting. Not sure how it’s going to play out into to larger picture of things in the years to come...

 · 
tduds

My wife is in the same position (residential landscape design). She was all geared up for a lay-off & then signed three clients in a week. Turns out folks with enough money to hire her company still have that money, and now they're spending their days staring at the back yard & getting antsy.

1  · 
x-jla

Yeah, commercial markets are probably going to be hit hardest. Remember, in 2008 there was a surplus of residential inventory due to over building. Now we have housing shortages in many places. That may actually protect the residential RE markets for a little while. The 2008 crash also hurt the working class and middle class the hardest. This time around,

 · 
x-jla

It’s likely going to be more about specific industries that get hit real hard like restaurants and hospitality. Retail and all that will probably bounce back quickly.

 · 
x-jla's comment has been hidden
x-jla

https://www.google.com/amp/s/reason.com/2020/04/26/miami-dade-antibody-tests-suggests-covid-19-infections-exceed-confirmed-cases-by-a-factor-of-16/%3famp


more good news...a little hard to find info on this one...msm not really reporting....too busy warning people that Trump said dumb stuff again.  

Apr 27, 20 1:07 pm  · 
 · 

damn, I injected drano, is it too late? We ought to just put the media and Trump in a cage and let them go at it, while we go back to our lives....

 · 
x-jla

Your supposed to inject it? Oops, I poured it in my asshole....

 · 
tduds

Or just put Trump in a cage.

 · 
x-jla

What, and ruin the circus? We need entertainment in quarantine.

 · 
tduds

I don't think fascism is entertaining.

 · 
x-jla

Guess you’ve never seen hitler on a unicycle...

 · 
Non Sequitur

Hitler loves unicycles.

 · 

/\ love that one....

Unfortunately we are not getting the same architecture as the Italians did back in the day hanging with Fascists.

Filippo Tommaso Marinetti.   then see their Architect who died in war (they liked war in theory)

Sant Elia

https://d7hftxdivxxvm.cloudfront.net/?resize_to=width&src=https%3A%2F%2Fartsy-media-uploads.s3.amazonaws.com%2FWad6YM-PUKk8D-dMEI4upg%252Fd7hftxdivxxvm.cloudfront-15.jpg&width=1200&quality=80

Instead we get brass shit.

Trump Tower Lobby Midtown East New York City






AHHH!

 · 
CodesareFUN

Will you two quit your “Who’s the biggest Internet dumbass troll” pissing match and allow this thread to get back to the topic of layoffs? Damn you both suck.

 · 
RickB-Astoria

How are people getting their "Economic Impact Payment"? Many should have began receiving via direct deposit but how about those getting paid by checks? I suspect some won't be able to answer yet but hopefully they are getting their unemployment payments.

 · 
RickB-Astoria

Here's the approximate timeline of when the checks would be cut out. They are approximate. Sometimes, you may fall in the week before or after as it is being printed and sent out based on lowest AGI to highest AGI based on the database information of those on the system for receiving the money.

Link: https://www.forbes.com/sites/jimwang/2020/04/20/when-to-expect-your-paper-stimulus-check-in-the-mail-full-schedule/#79312ef25438

These are not exact date let alone date of arrival in your mail box.

 · 
Chad Miller

My wife and I aren't getting any stimulus payment. We recently bought a house and to do so sold some stock in 2019. Because we filed our taxes as soon as we got all our finical information we 'made' too much money due to capitol gains. At least someone else who needs it will get the stimulus.

 · 

If I hadn't filed my taxes so early this year, our stimulus check would have been close to the full amount. Instead it was less than a quarter of my normal paycheck (most of that comes from having a child) ... which is perfectly fine with me too. We don't need the money and have been spending it supporting local businesses as much as we can so they can hopefully stay out of bankruptcy and keep their employees.

 · 
RickB-Astoria

Everyone in general - Depending on the size of your firm and all, there may certainly be some things in the CARES Act to help out the firm. Chad, You might still benefit from some from the unemployment benefit related stuff so yeah... if you were unemployed or somewhere in the small business related stuff but there is a lot of hiccups in that stuff from what I heard in the news but haven't followed closely enough on the facts. E_A, that may also may apply to you or your friends/colleagues.

Anyway, I look forward to how others on Archinect (as well) are doing as well regarding the "stimulus" check or any other CARES Act related matters. 

 · 
Chad Miller

Shut the fuck up Ricky.

 · 
x-jla

wow chad, what did he do? Seems like an overreaction.

 · 
x-jla

The money should go to unemployment and businesses. It’s a huge waste to just hand it out to everyone.

 · 
Chad Miller

I told Rick to STFU because he's spreading incorrect information.


Oh and it was more of a general response to the majority of his comments.  

 · 
x-jla

Oh, you actually read it...I usually just read first and last sentence.

 · 
proto

we got direct deposit for the stimulus on 4/15. we got the Trump letter yesterday

zero on PPP to date, despite being ready to apply 4/3 & officially applying 4/14 once allowed to do so

zero on EIDL to date, despite applying 3/30

Apr 28, 20 12:45 pm  · 
 · 
tduds

Also received the direct deposit 4/15. The (unnecessary, imo) letter arrived last week. I might light it on fire.

We're donating our stimulus. Other people need it more than we do.

Apr 28, 20 1:22 pm  · 
1  · 
proto

that's good of you -- we're fairly nervous about workflow...ours went in the emergency fund for now

 · 
RickB-Astoria

Right now, I'm kind of in the similar boat situation as proto but I'm kind of moving forward on some non-building design services stuff that I am working towards beginning crowdfunding via Patreon before long which I suspect would be gradual but modest amount coming in which would help financially things a little bit but not as huge a singular impact as a kickstarter campaign would be.

 · 
CodesareFUN

No one is going to buy your Commodore 64 game.

 · 
RickB-Astoria

FACEPALM..... It's not a C64 game being made.

1  · 
CodesareFUN

Still will never be completed, just like all other things you’ve tried.

 · 
RickB-Astoria

Ahhhh...... little Codie soooo cute and all.... attempting to be a smartiepants.

 · 
shellarchitect

I think we all prefer to be proved wrong....

 · 
tduds

Yeah let's see your Patreon.

 · 
x-jla

Rick I hope you took my advice and started a Goonies tour around Astoria OR.

 · 
x-jla

You’ll make bank bro.

 · 
x-jla

“Pinchers or peril, I’ve been saved by my pinchers of peril” Love that movie

 · 
archiwutm8

Really don't know what I'm going to do after this is all over, my company was making us come in and really reluctant to allow us to WFH until mandatory gov lockdown.

So many friends are unemployed and loads are looking at new alternatives, this has all hit me in the face and I have no clue what I'm doing.

What's everyone's plans?

Apr 28, 20 4:26 pm  · 
 · 
curtkram

drink

1  · 
CodesareFUN

Truly the only way to make it through this profession.

 · 
liberty bell

curtkram you are an absolute joy.

 · 
curtkram

lol. i really can't tell if your comment is literal or cynical LB. either way, i'll toast to your health.

 · 

It's 100% earnest, curtkram! You say so much in so few words (a rare skill on these forums).

 · 
shellarchitect's comment has been hidden
shellarchitect

Wife (nurse) got laid off last week from the hospital. I know she doesn't see it this way, but I think it's a good thing.  She now has way more time to home school our kids, she gets 12 weeks severance, and had 7.5 weeks of vacation, all paid out as a lump sum.  Unemployment is close to what she was making before, and the hospital is still paying a portion of cobra insurance, which does not include a surcharge for me, so our insurance costs have gone way down for the next 12 weeks.

I'm a little baffled as to how this even helps the hospital.  Everyone in my wife's group had been there a long time and got a similar payout.

I'm pretty sure that she'll be hired back before the severance runs out, definitely in the next 20 weeks.  I'd really like her to go to another hospital system so we don't have to pay back anything, but we'll cross that bridge when it comes.

Apr 29, 20 8:28 am  · 
1  · 
Bench

Sorry to hear that shell. NPR had a report on this yesterday as well when I was listening, that a lot of hospitals are cutting staff because of liquidity problems with elective surgeries getting postponed; this seems bonkers that any staff in any medical profession would be getting laid off at a time like this!

1  · 
Non Sequitur

Oie, sorry to hear that but what I'm more stuck with above the idea of dismissing healthcare workers is that unemployment is close to normal wage. Also worth noting that I don't understand the US for profit hospital jive.

 · 
liberty bell

The US system (if it can even be called that) is laughably bad, except I can’t laugh because it’s so terrible.

 · 
Bench

" Also worth noting that I don't understand the US for profit hospital jive. "

you and me both ...

 · 
x-jla

The us health care system has proven itself superior to the European heath care system in quality of care. Have you been living in an msnbc cave? Did you not see how overwhelmed the European hospitals were? Compare the fatality rates. Insurance system sucks, but clearly the profit system vs socialized medicine produces a better refined product.

 · 
x-jla

On par with Germany and Canada despite the fact that we got hit the hardest and likely have a much higher comorbidity.

 · 
square.

"What accounts for the big drop between Sweden and Greece? Why does the United States have one-third the CFR of Great Britain? It’s not because of our low testing rate: if we tested more and therefore uncovered more cases, our CFR would be even lower. Does it have something to do with demographics? National health profiles? The quality of medical care? I don’t know"

it's good news. but notice how this reporter, who's job it is to follow this, notes a certain level of nuance is necessary in interpreting these numbers, and the fact is we really don't have a great handle on a lot of the information regarding this virus.

jla-x- you're still blind to the fact that every one of your posts is based off of assumptions, unproven correlations, and opinion; the very article you posted proves how laughable your assertions are.

 · 
square.

i, along with the rest of the world, would also consider greece, denmark, norway, portugal, switzerland, germany, ireland and austria, all of whom have similar rates as the us, a part of europe. so, no, we have not been proven to be better than europe, nor socialized medicine, just some countries in europe which happen to have socialized medicine (see the nuance? it's not hard, give it a try)

 · 
x-jla

Square, the areas that were hit at a similar level as US did not fare as well as the US. Canada, Ireland, Germany, etc do not have nearly the amount of cases as we did. They are also much smaller countries. It’s not controversial that the US has some of the best medical facilities in the world. Yes, insurance system is a disaster, but the for profit medical system has led to a high quality medical system.

 · 
tduds

The US has the best medical care in the world and some of the worst access to that care for the average citizen. "The hospitals are good!" is not a counterpoint to the claim that few can afford them.

 · 
square.

germany, who have socialized medicine, have a relatively high case/100,000 people (not far behind the us- comparing total cases is apples to oranges, but you don't seem to understand that), and a much better death rate than the us. not to mention the nationalized health care likely has something to do with preventing people from contracting the virus.

 · 
x-jla

Tduds, I agree with that.

 · 
x-jla

Square, not saying that all socialized medicine is always bad, just saying that it’s also not always good either. Like anything else, the devil is in the details. Government can be just as bad or worse at management as private industry. The profit/loss system seems to usually keep quality in check. Without that, market forces are completely replaced with govt management.

 · 
x-jla

And the flip side is overprescribing drugs, lack of wellness care, etc. I acknowledge that truth. For profit medical has many downsides as well.

 · 
Non Sequitur

For profit medial is all downsides. All I need to worry about is paying my parking.

 · 
square.

but clearly the profit system vs socialized medicine produces a better refined product.

i appreciate the level-headed response now, but your initial words suggested otherwise. perhaps before you post you should take the time to formulate a more nuanced response instead of stupid over-simplifications.

 · 
x-jla

Remember, for profit is also “for loss”. In a litigious society that leads to a very careful approach to everything. Competition is always a good thing. Some of the European systems lack competition. South Korea on the other hand has a spectacular HC system while still having equitable care.
https://mises.org/wire/markets-vs-socialism-why-south-korean-healthcare-outperforming-italy-covid-19

 · 
JMArch

No stimulus here. No unemployment insurance for the moment either. As usual, I fell into a 'unique situation'. I was a contract employee (for way too many years) at the last firm that I was at, so naturally I got the axe a couple weeks ago. (Longer story and not pertinent to this reply.)  

Because of the amount of bank that I earned for the employment agency, and they qualify for a portion of the paycheck protection - they've decided to keep me on for the next couple of months as a 'benched' employee before I get pushed to the state breadline. 

There were a lot of hard lessons learned during the '08-'09, and I sold off nearly everything that I owned to make the bills and had a battle plan to live out of my car on a bare minimum of assets... I got hired as a consultant a week before that was set to begin. 

With every paycheck since then, I've been taking care of my entire family - so not having an income hits multiple households in multiple states. 

This time - I've made moves to keep that harsh reality at bay for a while - but I still am unsure what my future holds. Right now its organizing 25 years of work and TBs of Revit and project data to consolidate everything and get the work history itemized for potential future work. 

There may be a nimble pivot coming, or at the very least a few more iterations of developing tools, software and basic knowledge to do more with less in an ever-compressed schedule. 

Archi Competitions are a decent way to keep the brain busy and hands moving - so maybe some of that. Who knows. 

I've been thru this all before - and for everyone in this same boat, you have my full empathy for your situation. The last time, changed me. I have no doubt that I'll be changed again after this. 

Apr 29, 20 8:56 am  · 
1  · 
liberty bell

JMArch, are you saying that you were basically a forever contract worker, never an employee?

 · 
JMArch

Yes indeed. I didn't fit in any given company category and there was a sizable discrepancy in my perceived value as an employee, and negotiations for compensation. It wasn't a great situation.

2  · 
RickB-Astoria

I hope you are doing okay. Thanks for sharing JMArch.

 · 
JMArch

I'm an introvert largely - I'm doing fine. It's others that I worry about. The mental health strain has already had an impact in my neighborhood. For me? I tend to invent things to solve when I don't have deadlines. Not designing buildings? Design process. (there's got to be a better way to practice - Front end tools, Revit library, Lean Management, Systematic approaches to hospitality/mixed use production - Solve the housing shortage?). Coding lately doesn't involve the IBC. Python, Dynamo, Grasshopper - Linkedin Learning, AU, Youtube, redoing a couple decades of project sheets, catching up on reading, sketching... all the things that I was 'too busy' to pull off working 60+ hours a week. This is my 'second tour' of architecture being seen as a disposable profession... always the first to get cut and the last to come back. Shame that so much influence has been transferred out of the profession and deemed 'non-essential'.

2  · 
RickB-Astoria

I get ya. Caring for friends, family, and colleagues. For me, keeping busy with various things... albeit not designing houses or whatever and really, for many, they can wait on those things and probably should until their lives are back on track and if that is pushed off a year or two... fine. I'm doing a variety of things involving software development work. Additionally, helping a local church with online worship service using tools like Zoom and Youtube streaming. Food and paying the bills and rent (if renting) or taxes (property and income) so they have a place to live is actually more essential to use money especially those laid off and so forth. Past skills I have developed over the years in software & video game development working remotely with people over the internet (instead of in-person) has allowed me to ride through this with less frustration as it is for others. I do believe there is areas of architecture that is essential... like essential facilities. I hope everyone the best given the situation and hopeful for a prompt but safe return to normality. I don't like endangering people on such scale as the coronavirus is.... in order to open up business. Even then, it will be somewhat of a slow start until the next peak time frame for things for some sectors.

 · 
archi_dude's comment has been hidden
archi_dude

So will Sweden be the new economic power house? They took a balanced and sustainable approach to all this and looks like they'll be pretty close to being done with it this summer. 

Apr 29, 20 9:40 am  · 
 · 
Bench

That came with a high cost compared to their adjacent Nordic countries.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/28/europe/sweden-coronavirus-lockdown-strategy-intl/index.html

 · 
archi_dude

I guess if you are only able to understand
things in the short term.

 · 
Bench

Always surprised at peopl who claim to value life, until it hits them economically.

 · 
Bench

A much better example would be NZ.

 · 
x-jla

NZ is still a sitting duck for a second wave. Sweden likely has some degree of herd immunity.

 · 
Chad Miller

It’s far too early to be making assumptions about how long immunity will last after infection with the COVID-19 virus.It sounds like that the scientific and epidemiological community are cautiously optimistic that this will be a stable virus though.

 · 
x-jla

Yes, but from what I’ve heard them saying, it’s likely that we will have some immunity for a some period of time based on other coronaviruses.

 · 
Chad Miller

Some immunity for some period of time - that's rather flimsy and seems to be a good recipe for another outbreak.

 · 
x-jla

if a virus antibody doesn’t last long, is a vaccine still effective? Isn’t a vaccine a way to trick body into a producing antibodies?

 · 
Chad Miller

I do not know. I do know that the reason we don't have vaccines for the common cold and flue is that the viruses mutate constantly. For example if you get a flue shot it's actually comprised of around six different strains of the virus. If you get a specialized flue shot then those virus strains are chosen based on where you live and what strains are common in that area. If you revive a generic flue shot then you receive strains based on a national average of the six most commonly occurring virus strains. Clearly if the COVID-19 virus mutates like the flue then vaccines will be much more difficult to produce as then would need to be constantly changing and people would need to receive such a treatment every year. If the COVID-19 virus is stable them vaccines would be viable and only need to be provided once every 10 years or so

 · 
randomised

The difference in casualties in the Nordic countries apparently is because in Sweden they have many more group homes for the elderly AND they have lots of migrant workers at those facilities that apparently don’t speak or understand Swedish all too well and didn’t understand the sometimes complicated Covid instructions and regulations. Will see how this pans out in the long run...Kudos to them for not panicking like the rest of ‘em and keeping calm and carrying on.

 · 
SneakyPete

You'd probably be better off explaining this to your dog, at least the dog will do its best to listen.

 · 
sameolddoctor

People that compare the Swedish model to the US are inherently stupid. Notwithstanding the fact there are are quite a lot of deaths there too, one needs to understand that their healthcare system is much more equitable than the US, and most importantly, they have much lower inequality and population density. For everyone claiming to open up the economy right away, I would have then sign a "Do not Resuscitate" form, so they dont crowd our hospitals.

 · 
x-jla

Do you know the case fatality rate for a healthy 40yo in the US? It’s about 0.04%- 0.01% Possibly lower. Your hysterical reaction is based on a segment of the population having really bad outcomes. No need for everyone to stay home. No one is arguing that 70yo diabetics should go out.

 · 
x-jla

That’s based on NY data which is also Probably worse than most of nation.

 · 
Chad Miller

Empathy is not hysteria jla-x.

 · 
x-jla

Now, weigh that against the economic problems that most 30-40 year olds will be stuck in for decade to come. if this thing is even nearly as bad as 08...we fucked. likely it’s worse.

 · 

I'm not worried about the 30-40 year olds out there. I'm worried about the people the 30-40 year olds will infect because they're asymptomatic.

 · 
Chad Miller

/\ THAT!

 · 
x-jla

EA, exactly, which is why we can still isolate high risk groups. Resources should go to them rather than everyone getting a 1200$ check. The young and healthy can return to work, maintain distancing, hygiene, etc.

 · 
x-jla

Anyone with a comorbidity or over a certain age should be placed on a UBI for x months. Same for priority when a vaccine is out. No need to waste resources and cripple the economy on people
with such a low risk.

 · 
x-jla

And if they live with an old person then they can do what’s right for their particular situation.

 · 
x-jla

Partial reopening

 · 
Chad Miller

Not a bad idea jla-x. Too bad it's all up to the individual states to have to pay for and decide how to do everything. No Central guidelines or leadership. ::grumpy face::

 · 

Even if the young and healthy go back to work and you're able to effectively isolate the high risk groups (which isn't likely), I don't know that the economy will be all that much better off. As the young and healthy maintain distancing, hygiene, etc. they probably won't be frequenting many shops and restaurants that they aren't already going to. 

The lunch crowd, for example, that might have frequented their favorite lunch spot will still be down (maybe call it a lunch gathering instead) as not everyone can go back into the office at once and maintain social distance. However, the owner of that lunch spot will feel like they still need to keep the doors open for even a chance to make enough to pay their bills. But without the same volume, will they be able to make enough to pay the bills? ... their overhead largely stays the same to keep the doors open right? Will they be able to keep the same workforce if they have to keep more distance between workers while working? Maybe they raise their lunch prices slightly so they can make it work with less volume ... is the lunch crowd going to pay the higher price as they worry about their own savings and whether or not they're going to get laid off in the second wave?

 · 

Look, I'm not saying that keeping everything closed or opening it back up slowly, or even opening things up all at once, is the right or wrong thing to do. I'm just saying that there is more to the nuance than it seems like people are really discussing. One big issue it seems is the same issue that plagued us from the start ... testing. I don't see it as being helpful to open things back up without adequate testing to make sure that there aren't asymptomatic carriers spreading the virus without knowing it. That might mean that if you are going in to the office you need to be tested once a week or more. In my mind, we need testing capacity and resources first, then a slow open with the ability to throttle back if we start to see a spike in numbers again. It will probably also be based on a more granular level than states too. What works for a rural area of one state probably won't work for the large metropolitan areas of the same state.

 · 
randomised

wash hands, don't touch face, keep your distance, wear a mask and stay home when having a fever or cold-like covid symptoms...it really is not rocket science.

 · 
x-jla

Restaurants, stadiums, amusement parks, and theaters will probably not bounce back for a long long time. Certain industries are probably doomed with or without ending the lockdown. That’s true. Other industries will probably bounce back quickly. There is no need to cripple the entire economy by strangling these companies from more months of income loss and debt. We will have enough to deal with from the doomed industries. Damage to the economy is inevitable. It’s now about mitigation and innovation. For the whole construction industry, we already have to comply with OSHA. Maybe OSHA needs to expand its requirements for covid-19? They already have the infrastructure to dictate workplace safety. Now just need to add a layer somehow.

 · 

randomised, see my previous comments about lack of nuance in the discussion. 

jla-x, did the libertarian just ask for more government regulation and oversight?

 · 
x-jla

I've never had a problem with reasonable codes and safety requirements. Do you think libertarians are advocating to remove ”employees must wash hands” signs from bathrooms? We are far more concerned with military industrial complex, first amendment protection, etc. safety regs are way down on the totem pole just below public masterbation and cousin marrying.

 · 
randomised

EA, what lack of nuance? The things people should do to not spread the virus or to not get infected are really not that complicated, it is all common sense.

 · 
archi_dude

The argument that immunity after getting sick is too flimsy and we need to wait for a vaccine makes no sense. If theres no immunity after getting sick theres no immunity with a vaccine then. So again, you can only hide under your covers so long.

 · 
sameolddoctor

jla, you are truly asinine. Simple logic is, if more and more people get sick, our healthcare system will simply collapse, and even if by your logic, young people will not die, the ones that contract the disease will be left with hundreds of thousands of dollars, which will merely be added to their student debts.

 · 
x-jla

sameolddoctor, You are making wild assumptions based on very biased testing. 25% of NYC has already been infected. The vast majority of young people that got the disease did not need or seek hospital care. This disease is mostly mild for healthy young people. The vast majority of hospitalizations were people with pre-existing conditions or the elderly. Like I said, they can and should remain isolated.

 · 
randomised

archi_dude, they did testing at blood banks here in NL and there are covid antibodies in roughly 3% of the population, no way herd immunity is working (here). Best option against these kinds of viruses is herd resilience by building strong immune systems: sleep plenty, exercise regularly, eat healthy...

And if vaccines don't work (long), there might reason for some to hide until a treatment/cure is found that can be given to a person each time they test positive for covid-19

 · 
x-jla

Absolutely ^. Staying strong is best defense. By staying indoors and washing hands 100x a day we are Weakening immune system too.

 · 

randomised, the lack of nuance is the simplistic response that common sense, hand washing, wearing a mask, and staying home when sick is all we need. It's definitely part of the solution, I'm not saying it isn't, but it's not the only thing that will keep people healthy. There are a lot of people without regular access to hand washing, there are people who spread the disease without showing symptoms and so never would have stayed home. We can't even get enough masks for the docs and nurses, but somehow we have enough for everyone to wear one when out in public? That's what I was getting at with my lack of nuance comment.

 · 

jla-x, I thought the free market should solve those problems. Why do we need OSHA to tell us what a safe workplace is? If I as a worker don't feel safe, I'll just leave and work somewhere else that is safer. If I'm an employer and all my employees leave because they don't feel safe, I should probably spend some more money on safety gear. Free market FTW.

 · 
randomised

My sarcasm must have gotten lost in translation when sliced to pieces by Occam's razor. Clearly the States is full of people who don't have common sense, all the way to the top. That's why you're hit so hard during this pandemic, not to mention the obesity epidemic that makes almost everybody part of a risk group having a pre-existing condition or two, no offence...

 · 
x-jla

EA, your understanding of the free market lacks nuance.

 · 
x-jla

You are arguing to the extremes. Go move to China if you want state controlled markets and speech.

 · 
randomised

Sorry, it's late, had to get up at 05:00, and could only start working today at 21:00, two hours in and I'm done. And there was a shooting this evening 50 meter from my house, in the park I take my kids to every day, love this lockdown...and now with the ramadan on its way even more people with a short fuse, ugh...

 · 

Are we still keeping score of times we get jla-x to complain about someone arguing in the same manner as he usually does? Cause if so, I get two points for the lacking nuance, and the arguing to extremes comments. 

randomised, sorry to hear about the shooting. That's terrible. Stay safe.

 · 
x-jla

Are we still keeping score of times we get EA to complain about someone arguing in the same manner as he usually does? ——fixed it.

 · 

I'm rubber and you're glue would have been a better comeback. Getting sloppy jla-x.

 · 
x-jla

You keep doing it though. You said arguing to extremes is bad...I think it’s sometimes useful...then you do the same over and over. Just calling out the hypocrisy

 · 

I don't to it to make an argument though. I was only making fun of the libertarian asking for regulation rather than a free market. I understand there is more nuance to it. Maybe you even understand that nuance, but you're not really offering that in your arguments, so I call you out on it and make fun of you for it. 

You use it because you think it's useful for winning arguments. It only helps you "win" because the other person gives up because it's ridiculous to try to argue with someone who can't think critically enough to recognize the fallacies in their own arguments.

 · 
x-jla

Incorrect. I do it because it reveals the extremes of an ideology and forces you to determine what’s too far- something that liberals/socialists almost always can’t do. We libertarians know what too far means....libertarianism is actually a moderate ideology, not an absolutist one. Anarchy is the absolute elimination of all regulations. Libertarianism is minimalist government. Like minimalist architecture this does not mean removing all tectonics and sleeping on the bare ground.

 · 
x-jla

Should say progressives not liberals...

 · 
randomised

Thanks EA, sorry for the lack of nuance

 · 
x-jla

Therefore no contradiction in my point...if a regulation is necessary it gets put into the minimalist required structure. If a problem can be solved without government, then it’s should be solved without government. The market cannot solve all problems, but it can solve most. There is also a big distinction between regulations that are a hassle and laws/regulations that infringe on ones liberty. Not being allowed to piss in the street does not infringe on my liberty. It’s not my street, so we have rules. Big big difference. You are judging libertarianism by the party and it’s spin offs. I’m referring to the core philosophy...I don’t believe in political parties at all.

 · 
square.

i appreciate that jla-x is trying to use "nuance," though he hasn't credited me for introducing him to the word

 · 

And there we go, back to arguing extremes again. I'm not trying to argue the merits (of lack thereof) of your argument, so no need to come back with more of it ... I'm just here to point out the fallacies. 

The premise of your statement that libertarians know what too far means as opposed to [progressives]/socialists encourages an "us" vs. "them" false dichotomy (i.e. extremes). You try to establish libertarians as the middle ground (in contrast to anarchy) in a bad attempt to deflect from the black vs. white dichotomy (as apparently libertarians would be the gray) but it is still a false dilemma. It's also a bad attempt at nuance.

Even accepting that "too far" is known, or even some type of established, absolute is a false dilemma and reduction to absurdity. 

I should also mention that your point of "if a problem can be solved without government, then it should be solved without government" is a false dilemma. Following that up with the statement that the market can solve most problems sets up that fallacy well to suit your own viewpoint. However, it is still a false dilemma ... as is the implication you sneak in there that regulations/laws are either a hassle, or an infringement on ones liberty. 

Thanks for playing.

 · 
x-jla

If we go back to the libertarianism thread I already made the case and castrated you and others. I care not to take a deep dive on this thread. Progressives may know what “too far” is, but they certainly won’t admit it. How much taxes are too much? “Uhhh durp...”.

1  · 
x-jla

Free markets are a requirement for a free society. Very simple. Can’t have freedom and liberty without the ability to engage in free commerce. There are zero societies with civil liberties that don’t also have economic liberty. ZERO

1  · 
square.

how much taxes

 · 

I don’t remember that thread and ... yep, still got the jewels so ...

 · 

I dug around to find the thread you remember. I was never a part of it, so you can apologize for the comment about castrating me. As for the others ... all I can say is that you have an active, imaginative, and selective memory. For those who don't want to take the time; jla-x argued straw men and extremes while others tried to argue reasonably with logic. In the end, the others all gave up trying and jla-x (apparently) claimed victory.

 ·  1
Non Sequitur

I just checked, I can confirm there was no castration on my side.

 ·  1
code

I had a chance to move to NZ, I worked for the San Francisco office of a NZ based AE firm and they asked us if we wanted to transfer to their NZ offices

Apr 29, 20 12:25 pm  · 
 · 
Chad Miller

That would have been nice! Assuming the pay was comparable with the increased cost of living.

 · 
x-jla

I hear NZ is very hard to move to. They have very strick and limited immigration.

 · 
Chad Miller

Rather easy with when it's for a job.

 · 
SneakyPete

Holmes?

 · 
randomised

NZ is beautiful and the people super friendly and open minded. And...Flight of the Conchords obviously

 · 
x-jla

I’m sure it is. What could anyone living there have to be upset about. It’s paradise.

 · 
randomised

Too many sheep and the sea esp in the south is too cold to enjoy a swim?

 · 
code

Yes you can got to NZ when it's with job, he firm offered us 18 month temp visas - I passed on it and got laid off instead, things were slow in the SF office, that was dumb

 · 
sameolddoctor's comment has been hidden
sameolddoctor

For jla-x and buddies:

Apr 29, 20 3:54 pm  · 
 · 
Chad Miller

Hahahahahaha!

 · 
drums please, Fab?

DON'T THREAD ON ME!

 · 
x-jla

When Jessie Ventura runs and wins you won’t be laughing.

 · 
Chad Miller

That ass hat is way to paranoid to run.

 · 

/\ dude, Trump won. At least Ventura was a Navy seal sort of, bruh....also I have to admit North Korean and Chinese propoganda on social media is so less culturally informed than Russian, even the Russian spam bots do a better job.

 · 
x-jla's comment has been hidden
x-jla

facts


Apr 29, 20 4:30 pm  · 
 · 
Bench

Something about extremes, can't remember where i saw it.

 · 
x-jla

See above meme by sod. Democrats and Conservatives are exactly like Carol Baskin. Both acting like their shit don’t stink, doing same thing as Joe Exotic, but rebranding into something feel goody...hypocrites.

 · 
sameolddoctor

jla-x, thank you for your drawing. I appreciate not having a ventilator stuck down my throat, which is what will happen is the "liberators" have their way with opening up the states too fast. Thanks again.

 · 
x-jla

Hahahhahahhaha hidden....but meme about people of a certain political persuasion dying from covid not hidden. Typical...

 · 
zg_a's comment has been hidden
zg_a

jla-x, shut up with your dumb political beliefs

Apr 30, 20 4:23 pm  · 
 · 
x-jla

No

 · 
Chad Miller

Well you tried. Now what zg_a?

 · 
zg_a

I tried. Has been annoying me for a while.

 · 
Chad Miller

You just learn to ignore the comments - kind of like a Trump supporter. Then when you meet them IRL you beat the ever loving crap out of them.

 · 
zg_a

Yep.

 · 
RickB-Astoria's comment has been hidden
RickB-Astoria

jla-x, *THIS* thread topic is about layoff from COVD-19 and to extent, related subject matters of unemployment benefits (if they are receiving anything yet or not), stimulus check to help while unemployed or even underemployed. 

This thread is not about politics and less tangential matters even though it is slightly related to COVID-19 but there are other threads more suited for such topics as tin foil hat crackpot theories and politics that you like to banter about even in context of COVID-19 pandemic. Look it up and use the thread that best relates to the subject of your banter. 

Lets try to improve the quality of discussion with relevance to the subject matter of the thread as introduced by the OP and the subject line. Tangents are okay if you can connect it effectively to the core subject matter as outlined. Yes, discussions can evolve somewhat but certain self-discipline is required so we aren't outside the ball field.


Apr 30, 20 5:10 pm  · 
1  · 
x-jla

I’m trying to keep it on topic. Others are bringing politics into it if you look.

 · 
RickB-Astoria

The essential point stands for everyone even if I don't point them out explicitly. It's the cyclical banter that isn't needed to continue on this thread. The point has been made.

 · 
x-jla

Back to topic.  I’m more worried about the entire architectural building types going extinct.  Shopping malls anyone?   Theaters?  What happens to firms that specialize in restaurants?  What do you do with out of business movie theaters?   Maybe over specialized firms are more vulnerable....what effects will this have on the academic movement towards density?  lots of shit to play out.  

Apr 30, 20 6:20 pm  · 
 · 
curtkram

i thought shopping malls already died. at least the big indoor ones. theaters don't seem all that strong on their own anymore. we're seeing bigger destination facilities that would be a movie theater, laser tag, bowling, etc.

 · 
geezertect

One more nail in the coffin of the density movement. The cramped apartment/mass transit/megacity answer looks much less enticing, if it ever was.

 · 
x-jla

Curt, not in my area. Malls are packed all year round. Geezer, agree. It’s a case for sub-urban.

 · 
thisisnotmyname

I hope density is over, the micro apartment/no car/overpriced metro thing is a huge scam that attracted a surprising number of suckers. There's plenty of room in the USA for everybody to have a decent amount of living space.

 · 
RickB-Astoria

.

 ·  1
square.

i think the antiy-city movement is overblown. it's a little myopic- urban centers have suffered countless pandemics and tragedies, yet have always continued to exist in some form or another. take a lot at 1918; though it had a profound impact on nyc, it hardly destroyed it. just like generations that weren't affected by it had no awareness of how devastating it was, the same will happen with covid.if anything, the untenable rise of housing costs was having a bigger impact on cities, and much of that is up in the air with this recession/depression

 · 
x-jla

Big difference between 1918 and today. Back then cities were functionally necessary, today they exist because of lifestyle preference.

 · 
square.

today they exist because of lifestyle preference

more over-generalized nonsense. i thought you had learned something about nuance.

 · 
Chad Miller

Bullshit.

 · 

When jla-x learns something about nuance, I’ll move back to the rural, farm-laden countryside where I grew up (and hardly anyone farms anymore)

 · 
tduds

Convincing counterpoint to the "end of density" claim above: https://www.strongtowns.org/journal/2020/4/27/this-is-the-end-of-the-suburban-experiment

 · 
tduds

There's also, imo, a huge misconception that "Urbanism" = mid town Manhattan. The false binary that we must choose between 200sf microunits and cul-de-sac tract housing detracts from productive conversations about missing middle density, walkable villages, and regional transit networks. Whether this misconception is intentional or not I won't say.

 · 
x-jla

Again, if we go back to the libertarianism thread where I schooled you people you will see that I taught you all the term nuance. Let’s stay on topic. Cities were built around industry. Cities didn’t evolve so that Sarah Jessica Parker could frolic around. Cities grew from a functional and economic need for density. Today, in the first world, “the city” is a commodity. Industry is out in the boonies. In 1918, the industries required a close proximity to shipping hubs, labor, etc. Any business type that exists in Manhattan can and does exist anywhere without any loss to their functionality.

 · 

tduds, what we have to argue about if not for a false binary of the extremes?

 · 
x-jla

It may be nice to be in Manhattan, but not functionally necessary. If we take nice away because of the coodies, cities take a big hit. Can you half wits think of a business that MUST be in Manhattan. Won’t accept “Manhattan tour bus” or
some smart ass bs like that.

 · 
tduds

You have a point w.r.t. Manhattan. The problem is that it doesn't apply to the other 99.9% of the urban landscape and you're ignoring that while also harping on about nuance.

 · 
x-jla

Case in point Amazon....NYC had to offer them bribes to locate there. They can operate just as easily from buttfuck Iowa. Just thought it would be nifty to be in NYC....but “nifty” is a weak weak thing. If urban density becomes associated with disease, danger, liability, etc...a flight from the cities will happen to some degree. Why? Because being in a city is a choice circa 2020 vs a necessity circa 1918.

 · 
tduds

Taking this to the "pandemics & the city" thread.

 · 
Chad Miller

My god you're foolish jla-x. You're arguing online. You're not going to change anyone's minds with your silly little comments. All you're doing is wasting your time in a vain attempt to boost your own ego. Your posts will accomplish nothing except earn you ire and disrespect of your peers.

 · 
x-jla

And what your doing is better because?

 · 
square.

being in a city as much of a choice as being in the suburbs, or rural areas. none of them are necessary based on your bizarre criteria. where one chooses to be is always... a choice.

 · 
x-jla

Yes, but in 2020 most cities have a higher cost of living. This wasn’t always the case, but costs have increased as the “urban lifestyle” has been commodified, as crime has gone down, etc. gentrification is a direct result of people from elsewhere flocking to urban areas for lifestyle. Hipsters didn’t flock to cities to work in garment factories.

 · 
x-jla

If you lose the “desire” to be in a city, then the rest falls apart pretty easily because unlike the past, where we had factories and shipping ports, and needed a close by workforce, companies are less dependent on geography, and workforce can live out in the burbs and commute.

 · 
tduds

"If you lose the “desire” to be in a city.." 

I'm not convinced this will happen. Everything else you're saying is predicated on taking this fact at face value, but I'm simply not buying it.

 · 
Chad Miller

jla-x - I'm trying to convince you of anything. I'm simply making fun of your stupidity.

 ·  1
Non Sequitur

Jla's comments keep reminding me of new urbanism from the early 2000s where the end result was always an affluent gated community.

 · 
x-jla

Depends on what you mean by “happen”. Obviously not everyone will leave the city, but I can bet that at least some will. To what degree is the question. There is a huge liability to remain in NYC right now. If a second wave comes, businesses will be hit with another economic KO punch. If I had a business there, I’d definitely be thinking about relocating to a state with less cases.

 · 
x-jla

Imagine just making it through this shutdown....buried in debt....and then another wave comes and have to shutdown again? That’s devastating. NY density = fast spread as we see from antibody results in nyc vs LI vs upstate...

 · 
tduds

I still don't know why you're pretending NYC is the only city.

 · 
x-jla

Like we saw in the 70s and 80s with white flight from crime...I think we will see white flight from the pandemic. And I say “white” because most minorities won’t so easily relocate.

 · 
x-jla

Tduds, I’m not.

 · 
tduds

You've mentioned New York specifically in this reply chain five times, and zero other places. So, you kinda are.

 · 
RickB-Astoria

tduds wrote: 

"There's also, imo, a huge misconception that "Urbanism" = mid town Manhattan. The false binary that we must choose between 200sf microunits and cul-de-sac tract housing detracts from productive conversations about missing middle density, walkable villages, and regional transit networks. Whether this misconception is intentional or not I won't say.

I agree with tduds. There are middle grounds between the polar extremes that tends to be lacking in discussions.

 ·  1
x-jla

I don’t disagree. We need sub-urban. I’ve been advocating for this since grad school. Most of the profession has been pushing this pro density agenda without really looking at the “nuance” of it all. Sub-urban can be different from suburban. This goes beyond pandemic fears...localization and decentralization of modern manufacturing...agriculture....etc. Been preaching this for a long time.

1  · 
square.

thank god you've been advocating for this since grad school. seems like no one is listening though. i wish you had broader a platform instead of anonymously ranting in online forums.

 · 
tduds

"Sub-urban can be different from suburban." I agree. It needs a new term, though, to avoid the obvious confusion.

 · 
RickB-Astoria's comment has been hidden
RickB-Astoria

jla-x

EA, exactly, which is why we can still isolate high risk groups. Resources should go to them rather than everyone getting a 1200$ check. The young and healthy can return to work, maintain distancing, hygiene, etc.

jla-x

Anyone with a comorbidity or over a certain age should be placed on a UBI for x months. Same for priority when a vaccine is out. No need to waste resources and cripple the economy on people with such a low risk.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

I'm responding to these two comments as it sort of relates to the COVID-19 and layoffs and so forth. First, here are problems with this. I see some complications. Not everyone young or otherwise not at the "at-risk group" has the knowledge and skills necessary to operate and direct things without the knowledge and skills that the older folks. There will be complications starting back up. 

I think it is too complicated for any governor or any administration make the perfect decision without hiccups or problems that won't work quite right. The only sure thing we can do is eradicate the virus and then open things back up but the time it would take to eradicate this virus would be a long time that most small businesses can not survive.

I'm not sure if it is intentional or not but the last sentence seems awkward and even confusing. No need to waste resources and cripple the economy on people with such a low risk? Who are these people? The ones that may die from this virus because nonchalant teenager who is asymptomatic going around. 

Imagine what a crowded Sunday Market type event happens to a small town with 2-3 visitors for every citizen in the town all jam packed in down a 50-60 ft. wide street corridor and about 700 ft. long along with tent vendors. 

Think about this crowd density and how this would have been so much more worse if this coronavirus situation happened in 4-5 months later in the year and events like this was already happening. The local healthcare situation would have been overran by cases which would have been a serious disaster especially in a community of Astoria's size and eve the local cities. This is the kind of activities that causes the greatest infection and ultimately greatest death toll. We would have have cases possibly in the hundreds instead of like 6 confirmed cases. It could have been in the order of 600 cases to well over 1,000 in a small town of 10,000 and then you have a lot of people infecting others in other places. The death toll could have been higher given a lot of local people in the "at risk" age group. These market places are popular places for people of all ages. The situation would have been similar to the Wuhan wet market. It would have been bad and even disastrous for a small town. I'm sure there are many other communities that has activities like this that this virus would have causes a lot of problems in and be a potential disaster. This event would have started in TWO weeks. Just imagine if we had this virus situation happen just 3 months later than it did. In short, we dodged a very disastrous pandemic situation. Other places were not so lucky. We have to be careful with this situation. 

Clatsop County had it easy compared to many places as far as not having the scale of people infected. This doesn't mean we can't if we have a second wave of the coronavirus when we have high population gathering. It is a serious matter and you can tell that for awhile, there will likely be less dense events in the next year or two. 


May 1, 20 2:28 am  · 
 ·  1
RickB-Astoria

15 asymptomatic people could over a course of a day cause 1/8 of those people to be infected and then each of those infect 2-3 other individuals in the crowd. In effect, the whole bunch in crowd could be infected if the coronavirus happened at that time. Then over the next couple weeks, infect 2-3 times that many individuals. If, 1/4 of them are locals of the county. You can see this can infect up to 3/4 of the county. The deaths would be significant. Hospitals would be unable to treat the illness without the medication / vaccine.

 ·  1
sidewinder's comment has been hidden
sidewinder

Hi all - 

Wanted to throw this survey into the thread in case anyone here hasn't seen it. We've collected about 275 responses so far. If you have a moment, please fill out this short survey about how your work has been impacted by the virus. 

ARCHITECTURE WORK UNDER COVID-19

This survey is open to all people in architecture and related fields: workers, students, teachers, writers — architects, planners, and landscape architects — anywhere in the world.

The purpose of the survey is to better understand how COVID-19 and its fallout are impacting the field and to initiate a wider, open conversation on the conditions of our work.

The survey is completely transparent — all the results are posted anonymously online (see second link below)

Link to survey:
https://tinyurl.com/yb2xwlcf


Link to anonymous results:
https://tinyurl.com/ycl3z87o

If you prefer to discuss your situation privately or discuss anything related to the survey before taking it, send us an email:
covid19@architecture-lobby.org

Organized by

T-H-E
A-R-C-H-I-T-E-C-T-U-R-E
L-O-B-B-Y

The Architecture Lobby, Inc. is an organization of architectural workers advocating for the value of architecture in the general public and for architectural work within the discipline.

May 1, 20 1:37 pm  · 
2  ·  1
molten

The amount of six-figure student loan debt in these responses is terrifying.

3  · 

A midwest regional office I know of just laid off 20 people out of about 150. A small high design firm here in Indy laid off two people two weeks ago and one of them has gone to work already for a different small high design firm. So it's not all bad out there!

May 1, 20 1:55 pm  · 
 · 
thisisnotmyname

That's the blessing of being laid off early in a downturn. There are still a few job openings here and there where some people can land. A lot of architects were shorthanded pre-COVID and some are still willing to try and fill those positions now.

 · 
code

a firm in SF has let go people who aren't able to WFW

May 1, 20 2:34 pm  · 
 · 
RickB-Astoria

WFW? Did you mean WFH (Work From Home)?

 ·  1
zg_a

Which firm?

 · 
b3tadine[sutures]

WFW = Work From Work

 · 
Non Sequitur

In unrelated to the usual fear-mongering and libertarian nonsense, our office has picked up a few large projects over the last 2 weeks.  It appears that many clients have decided that projects still need to proceed.

May 1, 20 4:29 pm  · 
 · 
Bench

Congrats!

 · 
Non Sequitur

Thanks. I suspect low interest rates are contributing to this too.

 · 
RickB-Astoria

good to hear for ya.

 ·  1
curtkram

how is that working? Do you still have a business development team working face to face with people, or are you inking deals virtually?

 · 

word of mouth I'm sure. Based on NS posts, I doubt they market much or have to. Architecture (legit) is one of those things where Dude A tells Dude B use these guys and gals, they know. There is a lot to know.

1  · 
Non Sequitur

Curt, I’m not involved in the Initial client meetings but some of the projects are restarts from previously proposals but others were done via zoom.

 · 
Chad Miller

We just got the SD of two new highschools here in town.

 · 
revolutionary poet's comment has been hidden
revolutionary poet

So I've been thinking about this -

A communist country will get blamed for causing a pandemic (rightly so) that essentially allowed Capitalists to trim the fat at their architecture firms, get rid of everyone they don't like, and re-hire (have you seen, there are firms hiring in NYC, didn't something just happen in NYC?).

Then the Capitalist backed government will sanction and go after communist country, that already serves the lusty consumerists of the Capitalist countries as a sweat shop of assembling goods, Communism is a good working class government (see the Manifesto, quick read)   Most things are not really made in China, just assembled, anyway I digress...

So, Capitilism wins again and you're unemployed - the Lay-off Thread in a nutshell.

(I have to go back to work, I had NO  fat to trim, just fucking meat and I'm at a loss)

On a philosophical note, Capitalism is innate human nature, Karl Marx was just trying to solve it and be fair about it.

May 1, 20 7:32 pm  · 
1  ·  1

Stuff = Capital (simple George Carlin)


2  · 
sameolddoctor

China is not a true example of a Communist nation. They are extremely capitalist, but disguise it as Communism, especially in recent times...

1  · 
archi_dude

Two things there. Yes in capitalism companies can hire and fire based on needs. Secondly, you are free to choose where you work and not work at places that hire and fire like that. You have the freedom to not get a masters in (insert useless overpriced liberal arts) and do great. You also have the freedom to get a masters in (insert useless overpriced liberal arts) for 10's of thousands possibky hundreds of thousands if you liked an out of state school and then complain that the system is rigged against you.

1  ·  3
x-jla

The no true Scotsman fallacy. China is a communist authoritarian regime. They also purposefully led covid spread I think. Hopefully once this is over the world cuts them off and they no longer can engage in capitalism...which will lead to their eventual collapse.

2  · 
square.

archi_dude, yes, you have a choice in some regards as to where you work (you of course have to be hired, so freedom is a silly word as the condition of your work is dependent on many things), but the livelihood of a worker is dependent on the boss, and not the other way around, making it an uneven relationship. in other words, bosses have a lot of power and are the ones with real freedom to hire and fire at their discretion. seeing the work and boss as having equal amounts of "freedom" is at best an interpretation of the situation, not fact.

1  · 
archi_dude

Dang, it sounds really hard to go through life seeing yourself as a victim of circumstance
.

 · 
x-jla

Good thing in the US you can become a boss if you want, and then can organize your office however you think is fair. You can hire people and pay them 2x as much as you make, you can give them the big office and work out of a Storage closet....when you work for someone else, you sign a contract to do something for a fee. There is an exchange of work for pay made between 2 consenting adults. If you don’t like that arrangement, you are free to leave and go somewhere better. By saying that you have no “freedom” you are essentially saying that you don’t have the capacity to enter into an agreement.

 · 
square.

the freedom you talk about is defined within a pretty narrow scope. having a limited set of choices doesn't make you "free;" at the very least it's an extremely conditioned freedom. take a look at architecture graduates this year.. they will be entering a very difficult labor market in which bosses have a huge upper hand, most of which are laying off employees right now, able to higher depressed labor down the road. think those students are free? not to mention most of the country's workers aren't so lucky; try telling someone in retail or food service to leverage their freedom by negotiating the terms of their "contract"- they'll be fired (e.g. amazon). assuming working class people just need more willpower so they can taste the freedom goes to show how out of touch you are.

 · 
x-jla

Freedom doesn’t mean that you get a 100% perfect field...that sense of entitlement is odd. The world doesn’t owe you anything except for your liberty. Freedom means that you have the ability to freely navigate through the field that happens to be there, hopefully making it a little better for those who follow.

1  · 
x-jla

You are confusing ones freedom of movement with unlimited access to ones goals. Access is always going to be limited to some degree depending on circumstances, internal and external, personal and societal. The well intentioned socialists want to create equality by controlling access. The well intentioned libertarians want to create prosperity by removing government imposed limits on movement and access. Many reasons why the socialists are wrong. For one, they fail to recognize that some people want to access more than others. Suppressing that then requires limiting access which requires coercion/punishment via govt...

 · 
labocce

just to clarify, i worked 30% extra hours in the last 6 weeks of wfh. got laid off the day after my 100% DD deadline. my insurance was canceled at the end of the month--3 days later. i got two weeks of severance pay. i graduated in 2008 and went through the recession. i am 41 and i have asthma. my 4 year old daughter has asthma. do you think this is a good situation? should we "open up" so, old diseased people die? no one else will get the virus? is this a reasonable response to the situation? should we layoff staff and provide no insurance?

(i have a masters...and i know revit)

May 3, 20 7:41 pm  · 
1  · 
archi_dude's comment has been hidden
archi_dude

You got laid off because we haven't opened up and theres too much uncertainty for business. Why would you pursue a new retail, restaurant, office, civic, residential establishment with only vague guidelines suggesting rolling lockdowns for the next 2 years. Either no customers, collapsed rental market and tax revenue is what all of these projects are potentially looking at in their timelines. Your post is essentially saying you should be allowed to be fully paid but stall the economy. No society in history has pulled that off.

1  ·  1
Susz

Is an extension with your insurance policy not feasible? Depending on where you live, you may have that option to extend it or at least be able to get that rate (sometimes cheaper than an individual rate). There are other obligations/hoop-jumping that may be necessary (work history with the company over 3 months, e.g.) but it is my understanding that if you are laid off you are entitled to certain accommodations through federal / state law for health insurance extension.

 · 
sameolddoctor's comment has been hidden
sameolddoctor

archi_dude, did you even read the question?i.e. did it get through your thick skull? Lobocce mentioned that he and his daughter have asthma - do you advocate for everyone to open up and put their life in danger?

2  ·  1
archi_dude's comment has been hidden
archi_dude

Yeah, what about yours? Shutdown economy = people lose jobs / supply chains break down with much bigger implications. Not sure why anyone is surprised of these end results...

1  ·  1
sameolddoctor's comment has been hidden
sameolddoctor

So you do not care about the poster's or her/his daughter's asthma, right? Great, you exemplify all your Republiciturds.

1  ·  1
archi_dude's comment has been hidden
archi_dude

Oh I do. And I'm a cancer survivor FYI which puts me right in there. I also work on a jobsite face to face no WFH. We're doing everything we can to stop spread on-site while keeping the economy moving. I just dont subscribe to a fantasy you can print paychecks for everyone while ending industry and not expect a fallout.

1  ·  1
archi_dude's comment has been hidden
archi_dude

*I'm not out of my 5 years, dang probably just jinxed that :-/

1  ·  1
OneLostArchitect's comment has been hidden
OneLostArchitect

Thank god my home boy Trudeau got me covered for $2,000 a month!

1  · 
square.'s comment has been hidden
square.

archi_dude, heard of the new deal? it saved this country from depression and created generations of prosperity. so yes, the only way out of this is through massive government intervention. the virus might have sped up this recession/depression, but it was inevitable as too many people were working extremely precarious jobs and barely living pay check to pay check

1  ·  1
archi_dude's comment has been hidden
archi_dude

Um that was WWII. Lol

1  · 
square.'s comment has been hidden
square.

"lol," no, the post war boom never could have happened without the framework the new deal established (though it is an interesting point, the war also required new massive government intervention). there was a time when the new deal was universally praised as a great achievement for america.. unfortunately you've been brainwashed by neoliberlism into denying the reality of history. you'll be convinced though by round 2 which is inevitable, cuz the market ain't getting us out of this mess it made.

1  ·  1
archi_dude's comment has been hidden
archi_dude

So you are saying all major history sources are wrong and the market decided to shut itself down, create giant losses and implode. Okayyyyyy sounding like those anti-Vaccers at the protests right about now.

1  · 
square.'s comment has been hidden
square.

it's funny that you pretend to read "major history sources"

1  ·  1
x-jla's comment has been hidden
x-jla

archi_dude, they desperately want this pandemic to collapse the markets and usher in socialism. They couldn’t do it Through “democracy” with crazy Bernie. Now they ended up with an 80yo who has half a dozen sexual assaults against him...believe women! “Keep the economy shut you evil republicans...you want asthmatics to die!” (SOD says something to that effect above) “Nuance! More Nuance!

1  ·  1
Chad Miller's comment has been hidden
Chad Miller

You're a moron.

2  ·  1
x-jla's comment has been hidden
x-jla

Sleepy creepy Joe! More proof that the whole me too thing was a political weapon to herd the dummies into their voting corrals.

 · 
Chad Miller's comment has been hidden
Chad Miller

No one is trying to impose socialism by running the economy. That makes no sense. In a socialist government all the means of production, business, and goods are are owned by the government. It would make no sense for a government to ruin it's own economy to then take it over.

 · 
x-jla's comment has been hidden
x-jla

But I get it....you as well as many others want to be on the good guy team...you want a moral quest....what you just don’t realize is that there is no good team...just different brands of bullshit...”everybody wants to rule the world...da da da da da...”

 · 
x-jla's comment has been hidden
x-jla

Chad, I don’t think it’s a well planned conspiracy, just a bunch of opportunists looking to grab power. As for the masses of civilians, there is a sort of angst that wants revolution for the sake of revolution. They are very good at pointing out problems in society, often rightfully so, but very bad at solutions...and completely short sighted and naive to the inevitable authoritarian creep of governments. They see this pandemic as a disruptive thing that will usher in change. We’ve heard it over and over....”we will never go back to normal “. Etc etc. again, more of an emotional angsty, wide eyed thing than some mastermind conspiracy.

1  · 
Chad Miller's comment has been hidden
Chad Miller

You realize the degree of planning and cooperation that would be required between governments and powerful individuals that have mutually exclusive agendas and ideals that would be required for this to happen? It's ridiculous that you actually believe this paranoid BS. How the hell are you a functioning member of society, let alone a practicing architect with this level of fear and paranoia?

1  · 
x-jla's comment has been hidden
x-jla

Did you read what I wrote? You are paranoid man.

 · 
x-jla's comment has been hidden
x-jla

Lmfao. How are you a practicing architect, let alone a member of society with such bad reading comprehension skills? Stfu,

 · 
x-jla's comment has been hidden
x-jla

Lmfao. How are you a practicing architect, let alone a member of society with such bad reading comprehension skills? Stfu,

 · 
x-jla's comment has been hidden
x-jla

You try to distill everything into a crazy right winger trope to more easily contend with rather than the actual nuanced statement that I made. You lack nuance man! Get nuance bro!

 · 
Chad Miller's comment has been hidden
Chad Miller

Keep trying.

 · 
SneakyPete's comment has been hidden
SneakyPete

Can we trade Jawknee for jla-xlax?

3  · 
Chad Miller's comment has been hidden
Chad Miller

Sure! At least Jawknee isn't taking itself seriously.

4  · 
x-jla's comment has been hidden
x-jla

Chad and Sneaky Pete, the two dumbest people on here. I’m yet to here a nuanced counterpoint from either one of you soy boys.

2  ·  3
Chad Miller's comment has been hidden
Chad Miller

Try harder. . .

 · 
labocce's comment has been hidden
labocce

I am very glad you survived cancer. My mom died of cancer when was twenty. She did not get to see any of her grandchildren, me finish school, or congratulate me on my licensure. I am just trying to ask if everyone thinks this situation is so simple or so black an white? I don't want to be laid off or die. While the callousness of the corporation I worked for (P&W) does not completely surprise me, I wonder why this industry cannot weather the slightest bump in the road? Less than 10% of projects/revenues were on hold. What does this say about the industry of architecture? What it says to me is that the industry has not changed or matured. The only real architects are still independently wealthy. Architects are not poor business people, it is a poor business.


(yes, i can sign up for cobra and continue my insurance for $561 per month with a $2000 deductible, plus 20% copay through $5000 of billings. does that sound cheap?)

May 4, 20 12:03 am  · 
1  · 
sameolddoctor

As you point out, a lot of firms in our (crappy) industry are trying to use this excuse to lay off people

1  · 
thisisnotmyname

Absolutely. Many firm owners would and do cut staff instead of reducing partner salaries and bonuses. My old bosses cut 15% of the staff one Friday and the following Monday one of them rolls up in a big brand new Audi and the other is talking about how he spent the weekend shopping for a new boat.

1  · 

Times were tough I'm sure. Think of how much bigger the boat could have been...

1  · 
RickB-Astoria

thisisnotmyname, wow...assholes making excuses and mismanaging funds for their personal gain. Dirt bags or 200#+ sacks of assholes.

 · 
Chad Miller

I have to agree Rick - what a bunch of assholes. Even if the partners described above had saved up a bunch of money and had the cash to buy the car and boat don't be a dick and flaunt it when others are taking a pay cut. That's a great way for people to jump ship as soon as things recover.

 · 
RickB-Astoria

Totally agree with you on this one Chad.

 · 
run500

Chanced upon this thread. And its a good read!

We are having retrenchment on our side under F&B.

May 5, 20 5:19 am  · 
 · 
archi_dude's comment has been hidden
archi_dude

In an article about anti-body testing


"....unfortunately that's where the science has us right now. We just dont know and it's much better to say that than to try and make predictions without having the data there becuase that can be detrimental." 


But when it comes to lockdowns collapsing the economy based on models built with assumptions, go right ahead, assume away apparently.


https://www.google.com/amp/s/m...

May 8, 20 9:46 am  · 
 · 
Non Sequitur

Correct. You finally understand the value of prevention.

1  · 
archi_dude

1,102 cases on USS Theodore Roosevelt - 1 death 0.09% death rate far below the flu. Diamond princess - 1.3% (older population) Likelihood of dying in car crash 1/103, 0.9% This is the equivalent of chopping off your arm for darker looking freckle. So should we prevent car crashes by outlawing driving? Same risk factor Non.

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First your point is we don’t know, now it’s we know enough to compare it to other risks in order to create straw men?

1  · 
archi_dude

Merely pointing out the irony of warnings that we dont have enough info regarding any science that points to this not being as serious as warranting a full lockdown. Whereas every scientific assumption that says this is the plague is held as infallible. That's not science that's religion. So as we are looking down the barrel of another great depression and social breakdown. Is this really a rational prevention strategy?

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Non Sequitur

yawn, not this dead horse again.

1  · 

archi_dude - I see your point. However I believe that in the field of infectious disease and virology the science points to the effectiveness and requirement of 'lock down' and 'isolation' as a means of stopping the spread of a contagion. It's a well proven an accepted method of dealing with an unknown fast spreading disease. Step one is stop the spread of the disease. Step two is find a cure.

1  · 
Non Sequitur

but Chad, what about step 1.5: return everything to normal based on selective internet research?

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archi_dude

But shouldn't the effectiveness of the lockdown and long term consequences be weighed? Right now it would seem the lockdowns are quite ineffective and the long term consequences are extraordinary while the risk itself is minor. Wouldnt that warrant switching to a more surgical lockdown and prevention method? Newsom himself has admitted the disease was in CA since Decemeber, thats 3.5 months with no lockdown, no one noticed anything strange and hospitals are still right now empty. This is not the Spanish flu crisis in any way.

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Non Sequitur

Lockdown is very effective here. Join the Michigan idiots if you have compelling evidence to the contrary of the overwhelming scientific position.

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archi_dude

I do. Decreases in new cases began 3/29, 2 weeks is accepted lead time until new cases are found. Lockdowns started on 3/20 and after. So essentially we didnt need to burn our rights and destroy our livelihoods to flatten the curve. Yes it would seem the Sweden model has a higher risk right now with a few thousand extra deaths and the overwhelming scientific opinion is based on saving every single life. But if you could summon the mental capacity to think of the consequences of 18-24 months down the road on this path like the "experts" are asking. It doesnt take much to realize we need to demand a better solution. Anyway
your enjoy your religion Non.

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Non Sequitur

It's not religion, it's unbiased and reasonable thinking. Feel free to be the first to nominate a few of your loved-ones to be put in harm's way. The rest of us understand the situation without the need to draw quick conclusions.

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archi-due - Actually lock downs are proving to be highly effective at reducing the transmission rate (Rt). When dealing with a highly infectious disease you have to prioritize things. Do you want to limit the amount of death? Do you want the economy to recover faster? Do you want to get a haircut?

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archi_dude, where do you live? I've found that in talking with my friends and family about the stay-at-home measures their reaction either positive or negative is pretty closely correlated with whether they live in an urban or rural area.

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archi_dude

I'm not disagreeing with the lockdowns working just saying we didnt need them to avoid overwhelming hospitals. And when ALL decisions rest with a community who, while very noble indeed, wants to save EVERY life and it's not tempered with the reality of that impact I question it. Because ultimately I dont know many countries with collapsed economies, researching,
manufscturing and distributing highly complex vaccines for their entire population.

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Non Sequitur

so, who's lives are you recommending we terminate first so that you can go out and have a pint at the pub with your buddies?

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archi_dude

Economy, famine, social unrest Non, your lack of ability to grasp those consequences explains your support for the current response.

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Non Sequitur

Not true, I understand it very well. You would not be this fucked had you opted for more socially-progressive government. Your level of desperation is fortunately very limited. The rest of us able to see beyond our own personal bubble will be fine.

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I have to agree with Non on this one archi. Our government flubbed this COVID response thing up in a spectacular fashion. The lack of leadership, the constant distrust and contradiction of science and health experts, the failed financial bailout, the hard core partisanship, and the blatant dis-concern about the poor and lower middle class. We screwed ourselves on this one by electing our current president. Other countries aren't having these issues - it's just us.

2  · 
SneakyPete

The same motherfuckers who whine about untrained designers and homeowners not hiring Architects sit around here second guessing scientists. There's some fucking irony for you, archi_dude.

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midlander

lockdowns are the plan C option after more effective and less intrusive steps weren't taken. it's one of those situations where potential risks and serious warnings are ignored until panic is the only reasonable reaction. fyi there are plenty of studies in the relative risks. it's not negligible at all.

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midlander

unless you're under 35ish.

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Bench's comment has been hidden
Bench

"I'm not disagreeing with the lockdowns working just saying we didnt need them to avoid overwhelming hospitals."

Just .... wow.

May 8, 20 12:34 pm  · 
2  · 
Non Sequitur

Welcome to the party.

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Bench

My brain is exploding. Come check out NYC and then tell me about not needing shutdowns to overwhelm hospitals. Fucking unbelievable.

1  · 
archi_dude

If you can read, you'll see that was about California and more car centric states. A metro area that has high concentrations of populations and high usage of public transit. Yeah you should definitely take higher precautions. Plus keep in mind your mayor was telling everyone to gather in groups pretty much a week before. Theres difference between lockdowns and social distancing and washing hands.

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SneakyPete

A patronizing tone is definitely the best tactic for changing minds. If you make 'em feel stupid, they'll agree with you! Keep up the good work!

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code's comment has been hidden
code

social distancing and masks, yes, closing businesses including architecture firms, no. Too many get laid off, can't get jobs, then quit the profession. This happened in 08'-09', when 70% quit for good - I toughed it out and forced the issue.

May 8, 20 12:49 pm  · 
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Non Sequitur

we're not shut-down... we're actually busy and picking up new projects.

1  · 
tintt

I turned down three new projects this week, good ones too, cause I can't take more on.

1  · 

I know of 10 or so projects our firm has won since mid-March when we've been 100% WFH for all locations. There could be more that haven't crossed my inbox too. We are definitely not closed.

1  · 

We picked up two large education projects and three mid sized retail ones. We also have another school RFP that we'll probably get and a few mid sized government project. We may be looking to hire a project manager due to the new work.

2  · 
archanonymous

Hey Chad if you don't mind, PM me once that develops more. I am really considering returning to my home state.

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archanonymous

tintt, you are primarily residential, right? Not at all surprised people are re-thinking their dwellings right now.

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archanonymous

A bit more surprised at the schools and commercial projects continuing right now... We just got hired for a study on a couple office buildings. Seems dumb.

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tintt

I'm some of each. All the new leads this week are residential and only one is semi-local. One across the state and one on the west coast.

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tintt

Biggest problem is I don't have a quiet place to work. I work from home and it works great but now school is canceled and my husband is working from home too. There are three new houses being built across the street so there is all kinds of yelling and banging and trucks coming and going and people. Kids can't go to the playground. Sorry I'm ranting. This is ridiculous. All to protect the delicate egos of the politicians.

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tintt

Upset that the internet keeps crapping out on me too. Thinking to switching to working all night and sleeping all day. All the emails come in the middle of the night anways.

1  · 

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