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COVID-19 Lay-off Thread

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archi_dude's comment has been hidden
archi_dude

Ny Times is now confirming community spread in California at least back to mid-January with first community spread death now Feb 6th. Meaning without media hype, low density states didnt notice any difference from a typical flu season. Assumptions and false stats still guiding California policy though. 

Apr 22, 20 9:18 am  · 
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Rusty!

Then make 10s of millions tests available, and get this shit out of the way. Primary reason we are in this predicament right now is because of complete lack of supplies, especially tests. Making a sweeping change in policy because of one study that recruited through Facebook, would also be foolish.

Apr 22, 20 9:38 am  · 
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archi_dude

It was an autopsy performed by the county.

Apr 22, 20 10:06 am  · 
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Rusty!

Single autopsy is even less telling how entire policy should be changed. I was talking about NY Times article about limited testing revealing more people are infected than previously assumed. Get more testing available right away. Go from there.

Apr 22, 20 10:52 am  · 
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urbanity

there are 3 deaths confirmed by autopsy from feb 6th to march 6th in santa clara county. county expects more.

Apr 22, 20 11:20 am  · 
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Chad Miller's comment has been hidden
Chad Miller

Personally I thought the zombie apocalypse would have a lot more swords and crossbows and a lot less gay tigers.  Just sayin'. 

Apr 22, 20 10:49 am  · 
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wurdan freo's comment has been hidden
wurdan freo

ahahahahaha...  fuck off you fuckin fascist...


de blasio orwellian website flooded with dick pics and the bird

Apr 22, 20 11:05 am  · 
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Chad Miller

Care to try that gain but this time with a coherent thought? Fucking moron.

Apr 22, 20 11:07 am  · 
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curtkram

did you see his link?

Apr 22, 20 12:16 pm  · 
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x-jla

Lol. Covid is Deblasio’s dream come true. He said himself that he wanted government to control everything.

Apr 22, 20 12:49 pm  · 
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x-jla

Look, if I had my druthers, the city government would determine every single plot of land, how development would proceed. And there would be very stringent requirements around income levels and rents. That’s a world I’d love to see, and I think what we have, in this city at least, are people who would love to have the New Deal back, on one level. They’d love to have a very, very powerful government, including a federal government, involved in directly addressing their day-to-day reality.“. ———-
Deblasio

Apr 22, 20 12:54 pm  · 
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x-jla

Quote above by bill

Apr 22, 20 12:54 pm  · 
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x-jla

The world govts are using covid as a power grab. Ai Wei Wei says that China has expanded authoritarianism post covid. Have to assume that those with authoritarian dreams have an interest in covid being a scarier threat than the government.

Apr 22, 20 12:57 pm  · 
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tduds

One can tell a lot about what someone believes not by what they say, but by what inspires them to say it. It's telling, in this case, that wurdan is very upset by de blasio's "fascism" but not by Trump's.

Apr 22, 20 2:08 pm  · 
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x-jla

And can the reverse be true for many liberals?

Apr 22, 20 2:14 pm  · 
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SneakyPete

Can it? Yeah, sure, anything's possible. Does posting a question asking make it so? No, and the onus is on you to prove it.

Apr 22, 20 2:31 pm  · 
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tduds

I never said it wasn't true for other people just that it's true for wurdan.

Apr 22, 20 2:39 pm  · 
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tduds

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Whataboutism

Apr 22, 20 2:40 pm  · 
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x-jla

Well sneaky, you are very upset by trumps fascism, but not chinas it seems. Damn, should have rearranged the words in the times article below to bait u. Too late.

Apr 22, 20 3:04 pm  · 
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SneakyPete

You're projecting, jla, as per usual. I unblocked you to see if you had anything to say worth listening to. My curiosity sated, back on block you go.

Apr 22, 20 4:27 pm  · 
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x-jla

No you didn’t. You always say you blocked me but constantly keep replying to my posts.

Apr 22, 20 5:09 pm  · 
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archi_dude's comment has been hidden
archi_dude

UC Berkeley John Swartzberg, infectious disease expert from definitely not a right leaning school, is on the record stating there was probably community spread early January and it was mistaken for the flu. So 2.5 months of unmitigated spread on the west coast, no overflowing hospitals, no mass graves and everyone thought it was just a slightly worse flu season? Am I understanding this correctly or missing something? 

Apr 22, 20 11:32 am  · 
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Rusty!

You are desperately jumping into conclusions for personal gain, whatever it may be. Over here in Brooklyn, my local facebook group keeps posting obituaries of prominent local figures who died. My wife's students are losing their parents and family to this thing. 60+ teachers have died so far in NYC. 80+ transit workers have died. 30+ cops have died. While literally tens of thousands going down with extreme sickness. Perhaps California air is not a great vector for disease spread. Who knows. I am not a scientist, and neither are you. Yes, you are missing something by being extremely biased and wanting specific results.

Apr 22, 20 3:20 pm  · 
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x-jla

Rusty, evidence that there was covid that far back is not scientific? I don’t understand why you all are so hostile towards good news. It is good news that there are possibly more cases. You are being very biased rusty.

Apr 22, 20 4:32 pm  · 
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x-jla

Again, you in NY could be seeing the tip of a much bigger iceberg. That will soon be confirmed or not by antibody testing in NY. They are also doing nationwide testing in Germany. Since when did liberals become science deniers? What you are saying in tantamount to people denying global warming because they are experiencing a colder than normal winter .

Apr 22, 20 4:35 pm  · 
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Rusty!

jla-x, you are perhaps missing context of additional exchange I had with Archi-dude. He is saying that these autopsies should be reason enough to open up CA economy RIGHT THIS INSTANT. I am being very cautiously optimistic about a string of good news that came out recently. Scientists are being optimistic as well. Additional testing rollout is a must next step.

Apr 22, 20 4:52 pm  · 
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Rusty!

And yes, jla-x, your hot takes are as dumb as a bag of drywall scraps. Same as always.

Apr 22, 20 4:53 pm  · 
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archi_dude

Actually Rusty no I didnt say that and past comments I've said theres a more balanced solution. You jumped to that conclusion based on the question I asked. So hmm got you questioning it yourself now too.

Apr 22, 20 7:29 pm  · 
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zonker's comment has been hidden
zonker

I live in Berkeley, and there was a lot of flu in Dec. and Jan. Everyone in my Oakland arch office got it. But was it Covid? I wouldnt want to test that theory to get " dealt a bad hand" Know what i'm sayin

Apr 22, 20 12:37 pm  · 
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x-jla

Yes, but it’s definitely possible. There were lots of undiagnosed pneumonia cases around that time where people were negative for flu according to doctors. I’m fact, we always have a significant monthly death toll from pneumonia of unknown origins. I was surprised to see how many die from pneumonia. It’s possible the unknown in some of these was covid. I too am like 90% sure I had it back in Feb, but don’t want to take chances either. I had all the symptoms, mildly, and it lasted about 4 weeks which is way longer than I’ve ever been sick before.

Apr 22, 20 1:03 pm  · 
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Chad Miller

Keep in mind that COVID is a broad term that encompasses a wide variety of upper respiratory viruses. COVID-19 is the virus that's caused the pandemic we're currently experiencing. On a related note I do not think it's been proven that once you have COVID-19 and recover you are immune. I'm not certain though.

Apr 22, 20 1:36 pm  · 
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zonker

4 weeks, that was the experience in our office, both my PM on one side and the PA on the other got it, our entire row basically

Apr 22, 20 2:50 pm  · 
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SneakyPete's comment has been hidden
SneakyPete

I'm not certain though.

Apr 22, 20 2:11 pm  · 
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x-jla's comment has been hidden
x-jla

“Chinese Agents Helped Spread Messages That Sowed Virus Panic in U.S., Officials Say”.  NY Times 


So, this is why I’ve asked lots of times on here why China hid asymptotic cases if they were trying to downplay virus.  Guess panic was the goal   Hmmm



Apr 22, 20 2:13 pm  · 
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curtkram

why do you believe this stuff?

Apr 22, 20 2:24 pm  · 
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x-jla

Why do I believe a NY times article?

Apr 22, 20 2:27 pm  · 
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SneakyPete

"Officials Say"

Apr 22, 20 2:28 pm  · 
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SneakyPete

You suck greedily from the teat of "Officials Say" when it furthers your shiny-hatted narrative.

Apr 22, 20 2:29 pm  · 
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x-jla

“Just because your paranoid...don’t mean they’re no after you....”. Kurt Cobain.

Apr 22, 20 2:30 pm  · 
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SneakyPete

I'm pretty sure Kurt could spell better than you, and that's a Heller quote.

Apr 22, 20 2:32 pm  · 
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x-jla

*Doesn’t. Yeah, iPhone... Ah, it is indeed a Heller quote. I didn’t know that.

Apr 22, 20 2:46 pm  · 
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x-jla

As do you sneaky pete when “officials say” that the Russians interfered with election...

Apr 22, 20 2:48 pm  · 
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x-jla

The Chinese are secretly buying up deprecated assets rn FYI, expanding authoritarian controls, and flexing military up.

Apr 22, 20 2:49 pm  · 
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SneakyPete

Do you have a point or do you simply revel in spewing factoids, conspiracies, and sound bytes?

Apr 22, 20 2:52 pm  · 
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b3tadine[sutures]

Literally how we got here; Official Say

I think Ministry is working a new album with this title.

Apr 22, 20 2:58 pm  · 
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x-jla

My point is that perhaps panic and economic collapse was the goal. This could be a world economic war that looks like an innocent world pandemic. If you believe that conspiracy theories are truth seeking anything below the surface, then yes it’s a conspiracy.

Apr 22, 20 3:02 pm  · 
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x-jla

My point is that perhaps panic and economic collapse was the goal. This could be a world economic war that looks like an innocent world pandemic. If you believe that conspiracy theories are truth seeking anything below the surface, then yes it’s a conspiracy.

Apr 22, 20 3:02 pm  · 
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Non Sequitur

You're watching too many bad movies. It's too easy to invent agentcy and squint hard until what you see brings you comfort.

Apr 22, 20 3:07 pm  · 
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x-jla

Oh, so why would China hide asymptotic cases from tally, if including them would cut fatality rate in half? Seems inconsistent with the narrative that China was downplaying the threat. The Chinese govt is very calculated with the data released. Why do you give authoritarian regimes like China the benefit of the doubt? Are you so naive to think that the world governments are not in a constant battle for control and economic/military supremacy? China and Russia have been at this for a while. I think we are justified in at least exploring the possibility that China is capitalizing on the chaos it’s causing to its geopolitical rivals.

Apr 22, 20 3:17 pm  · 
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Non Sequitur

because it's china.


Apr 22, 20 3:19 pm  · 
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b3tadine[sutures]

..

Apr 22, 20 3:30 pm  · 
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tduds

Do you mean asymptomatic? Asymptotic could apply but it makes less sense.

Apr 22, 20 4:24 pm  · 
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x-jla

Asymptomatic.

Apr 22, 20 4:27 pm  · 
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CodesareFUN

Zoom officials say that I’m currently wearing pants on my current call, but that’s a lie.

Apr 22, 20 4:27 pm  · 
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Impact of asymptomatic infection and acquired immunity on the spread and control of Ebola


.....forecasts that ignore naturally acquired immunity from asymptomatic infections overestimate incidence late in epidemics....


...the model without asymptomatic infections projects 50% more cumulative symptomatic cases than the model that accounts for asymptomatic infection.

Apr 22, 20 5:22 pm  · 
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lol, I posted this on March 31, 2020 over here

"jla-x, asymptomatic(note that the first line is 'not to be confused with asymptotic')"

Apr 22, 20 9:19 pm  · 
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is this about architecture again EA?

asymptote architecture?



Apr 22, 20 9:27 pm  · 
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x-jla

EA, don’t understand your point? If you type asymptomatic into iPhone it autocorrects to asymptotic. So what?

Apr 22, 20 10:24 pm  · 
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Asymptomatic ... not on my iPhone. Sounds like the issue is found between the iPhone and your chair.

Apr 23, 20 9:20 am  · 
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It’s also a pattern with you and ‘big’ words. Go back to the bottom of page 3 in this thread to see your issue with epidemiology

Apr 23, 20 9:22 am  · 
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x-jla

Seems like you have a problem with arguing substance.

Apr 23, 20 10:57 am  · 
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Non Sequitur's comment has been hidden
Non Sequitur

.

Apr 22, 20 2:16 pm  · 
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CodesareFUN

Guess another name for cocaine is the Holy Spirit.

Apr 22, 20 2:37 pm  · 
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CodesareFUN

Also if you take him out of a church and put him on a street corner he gets an involuntary 72 hr hold in a padded room.

Apr 22, 20 2:38 pm  · 
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x-jla

Crack is whack

Apr 22, 20 3:05 pm  · 
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revolutionary poet

Since this is a lay-off thread.

After you collect the more than usual unemployment rate you could go to your congress person and sign-on for some type of class action civil lawsuit or something similar to what Missouri is trying.

You say "Poet, but why and how?"

I says "Well, can you really sue your congress person and government who just sent you unemployment money?  Well you could but the government is never wrong.  You can go to the source, go to the outsider, go to the entity that put your nation in this position to begin with. It's in your government's interest as well, they'll represent you as well. Teamwork."

Apr 22, 20 5:33 pm  · 
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joseffischer's comment has been hidden
joseffischer

Those ABI numbers just posted are abysmal.  For those still working, what's the office feel and how are the higher-ups spinning "everything will be fine" any actual info to back up their claims?  We're back to doing the type of work I could find on the side, and if I brought it to the firm's attention back in good times, they would laugh and tell me it's too small for them.


Apr 23, 20 10:46 am  · 
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square.

my office is one of the lucky ones. 90% of our work is "essential." no changes, even more projects on the way.

Apr 23, 20 12:10 pm  · 
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x-jla's comment has been hidden
x-jla

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cnbc.com/amp/2020/04/23/new-york-antibody-study-estimates-13point9percent-of-residents-have-had-the-coronavirus-cuomo-says.html


More good news.  Like I said, let’s not be too quick with the layoffs.  



Apr 23, 20 12:14 pm  · 
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Chad Miller

Is there any proof that once you have COVID-19 you're immune?

Apr 23, 20 12:29 pm  · 
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Non Sequitur

Hey, a survey on 3k people... that's good enough to extrapolate to the whole country! eye roll. Let's see this again when there are a few extra zeros at the end of the sample size. Until then, the overwhelming scientific consensus stands instead of preliminary rumblings.

Apr 23, 20 12:34 pm  · 
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x-jla

Chad, no. There have been possible reinfections in South Korea in a minority of people. Think they were all Very mild though.

Apr 23, 20 1:06 pm  · 
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x-jla

Non, they are doing studies in multiple areas now. Germany is trying to test entire country.

Apr 23, 20 1:07 pm  · 
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tduds

"Hey, a survey on 3k people... that's good enough to extrapolate to the whole country!" FWIW that's much larger than almost every academic / medical study. Statistically, it's more than enough to accurately extrapolate.

Apr 23, 20 1:27 pm  · 
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Non Sequitur

Thanks Tduds for that point. I am surprised that 3k is considered a good number. Likely will require a meta analysis of several similar studies to determine reliable results.

Apr 23, 20 1:41 pm  · 
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square.

The testing results also may be artificially high because “these are people who were out and about shopping,” Cuomo added. “They were not people who were in their home, they were not people isolated, they were not people who were quarantined who you could argue probably had a lower rate of infection because they wouldn’t come out of the house.”

yes, some good news. but as usual you're trying desperately hard to extrapolate a piece of news to your larger political bias (aka let's open the economy). again, would be great if this thread were dedicated to real information about layoffs, not politically motivated speculation. instead jla-x has completely taken over this thread with their ramblings.

Apr 23, 20 1:48 pm  · 
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tduds

Sure, more never hurts. I'm always amazed at how, intuitively, sample sizes of polls & stuff seem remarkably small but manage to yield fairly accurate results.

Apr 23, 20 1:49 pm  · 
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x-jla

Square, no I’m not. If you go to page one you will see that I was calling for a 30-45 day total quarantine to stop this. I’m adjusting my position based on new data. I suspected this from the beginning, but now it seems there is some preliminary data that points to this conclusion. I’m not saying to open anything right now. You are reframing my argument to create a polarized position to more easily discredit and argue against.

Apr 23, 20 2:09 pm  · 
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x-jla

However, if science says that x people have low chance of mortality and severe illness, and y people have high chance, then x people should be able to restart economy while y people continue to shelter. We are splitting resources amongst x and y. We should save those for y only, because this may last a long long time for them, and x can provide for selves again.

Apr 23, 20 2:12 pm  · 
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x-jla

Based on age and health, we could possibly create a 2 year UBI for high risk people only. This would be a more effective way to mitigate death. Let young people keep the engine going, and lets protect the most vulnerable rather than cutting a check to Balkins.

Apr 23, 20 2:18 pm  · 
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x-jla

Square, for the record, nothing is more relevant to layoffs than the status of the virus. These studies are being done to weigh the possibility of opening the economy. As a business owner, this type of information is very important. The possibility of opening in a month vs a year can change how we approach layoffs. From a business perspective, if we can hold off for a month, it’s not worth laying off staff. Investors and businesses keep an eye on trends like this.

Apr 23, 20 2:31 pm  · 
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Rusty!

jla-x, the news you posted isn't really news per se. Here in NYC most of us suspect we have been exposed at some time or the other. There was just no way to confirm that. Also, viral load exposure matters a lot as well. Someone sick sneezing into your mouth is significantly worse than you touching a door knob that may have micro droplet on it. Your body responds differently to a minor exposure then when it gets completely overwhelmed by billions of virus units. This is why healthcare workers of any age are at a much higher risk, and many have died even though they are not in your "group B". People in your "Group A" are much better off limiting exposure regardless of anything else. Your analysis is a gross simplification of a complex issue, as always.

Apr 23, 20 2:32 pm  · 
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Non Sequitur

"cutting a cheque to Balkins" Thanks for that one, made me laugh.

Apr 23, 20 2:34 pm  · 
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square.

jla-x, you're sucking up all the air.. case and point, 4 posts in a row. some people come here for information, not only your "thoughts"

Apr 23, 20 2:34 pm  · 
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x-jla

Rusty, it’s from the “news”. Other points you made have nothing to do with the topic. square, it’s easier to read that way than one long post imo.

Apr 23, 20 3:36 pm  · 
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Rusty!

jla-x you live in buttfuck nowhere, are completely removed from epicenters of breakouts, are staring at your screen and deciding how public policy should play out. Let adults make decisions.

Apr 23, 20 3:39 pm  · 
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archi_dude

Exactly, why is he in a lockdown? Why not basic mitigation and social distancing?

Apr 23, 20 4:11 pm  · 
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x-jla

Your debate skills are weak. You sound like a know-it-all college freshman teachers pet.

Apr 23, 20 4:20 pm  · 
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x-jla

Rick, your last paragraph is important and supports another angle to my point. We need to prioritize vaccinations. Give to those in higher risk first.

Apr 23, 20 4:25 pm  · 
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x-jla

Lived in NYC most of my life btw. You

Apr 23, 20 4:36 pm  · 
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x-jla

Lived in NYC most of my life btw. You

Apr 23, 20 4:36 pm  · 
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x-jla

are making assumptions Rusty.

Apr 23, 20 4:36 pm  · 
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Rusty!

jla-x have I confused you for someone else? I thought you were a rural contrarian/libertarian that has been like that for many years. If you are actually in NYC, or are from here, then your views are even more heartless/sociopathic. We didn't take the warnings from Italy seriously and have paid a big price for it in NYC. Now we are warning rest of the country, and are being laughed at. This virus will not spread in suburban/rural areas like it spread here. It will spread slower, but that will be the only difference. But you are free to armchair quarterback as you please. It's just annoying to watch.

Apr 23, 20 4:52 pm  · 
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x-jla

20% of nyc has been infected. Do the math.

Apr 23, 20 4:52 pm  · 
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Rusty!

I think it's much higher than 20%, personally. This doesn't change anything like you think it does.

Apr 23, 20 4:54 pm  · 
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x-jla

Yes it does. It definitely eases some anxiety that I and many others have been dealing with for one.

Apr 23, 20 5:07 pm  · 
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x-jla

Rusty, yes I am from nyc, lived there 25 years, I live on the west coast now. A lower cfr is good news. I’m not sure what you are talking about. It literally means that less people will die. What’s your malfunction? Did this spoil your hope of a socialist takeover? I don’t understand. Cuomo is happy, people are happy, things are looking better. The worst case scenario has been drastically lowered. This is good. Resources can be better allocated. That’s also good. What’s the beef? I seriously don’t get your point of view. Do you want to keep the economy closed forever? Until trump gets out of office?

Apr 23, 20 5:17 pm  · 
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x-jla

or, are you so tribal and emotionally invested in some fake bundle package ideology that you can’t see beyond? Trump say that corona not as bad...science say not as bad...trump bad=science bad! How you sound to non tribal free thinkers like myself

Apr 23, 20 5:21 pm  · 
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square.

if you don't understand the point of view, then move on. your obsession with these speculations is bizarre. talk about these things with people who live within 100 miles of you. stop trying to convince new yorkers who, by the way, are not "happy" right now; please don't make assumptions for those of us actually going through this.

Apr 23, 20 5:28 pm  · 
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Rusty!

jla-x. Disconnect here is that every single governmental entity is actively discussing how to sensibly reopen everything. That is the plan. It has been discussed to death (literally). While you have a lot of leaders who are trying to make the best informed decision, you also have governors of Georgia and Florida just opening shit willy nilly. When you personally talk about reopening it makes you sound like you are in the later camp. OPEN AT ALL COSTS. It's irresponsible and downright criminal.

Apr 23, 20 5:34 pm  · 
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x-jla

Do you live in a cave? It’s literally the top story in every news outlet right now. I don’t give a shit if NYers decide to stay inside forever until no one ever dies again. NY is not the entire country dumbass. NY antibody testing is a sneak peak of what most of the country can expect in the true CFR. Are you slow? Grown ups make decisions based on science, not how many veins pop out of Rachel Maddows neck when she barks, or how scary it looks outside from my limited vantage point.

Apr 23, 20 5:41 pm  · 
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x-jla

until you can explain how a lower cfr is bad news stfu.

Apr 23, 20 5:43 pm  · 
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Rusty!

"It’s literally the top story in every news outlet right now." "Rachel Maddows" It does sound you spend most of your day watching Fox news. Fatality rate being confirmed low is great news. But we were never dealing with bubonic plague. Just watching out for our health compromised fellow citizens who count in tens of millions. Nuance will never be your friend. "Do you live in a cave?" No I live in NYC. But you do. This is called projecting.

Apr 23, 20 6:21 pm  · 
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x-jla

Nuance is not your thing huh. There is a huge difference between 3% CFR and 0.3% CFR. All deaths are bad, but more deaths are worse. Less death is good. What’s your point? Oh yeah, you don’t have a point. You were trying to throw spears at the tribal foe of your imagination so that your fellow tribesmen can give you virtual hi-fives.

Apr 23, 20 6:41 pm  · 
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x-jla

I thought I told you to go F yourself?

Apr 23, 20 6:42 pm  · 
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Rusty!

This feels like a Monty Python skit. "I'm here to have an argument with a self proclaimed moderate republican". And you are talking to a bot.

Apr 23, 20 7:01 pm  · 
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x-jla

I love Monty Python, but that doesn’t make sense. Can you form coherent counterpoints?

Apr 23, 20 7:11 pm  · 
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x-jla

Dear Cuomo and fellow NYers, stop antibody testing and send money to AOC! She needs it. It doesn’t matter if 100% of us will die from covid, or one in a million. We will behave the same and you have no need to know. Please base future decisions and anxiety levels on the bulge of veins in Rachel Maddows neck. -Rusty

Apr 23, 20 7:14 pm  · 
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archi_dude

I mean we dont need to debate anymore. With states opening up we get a front row seat to who made the bad call.

Apr 23, 20 11:04 pm  · 
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square.

I mean we dont need to debate anymore. With states opening up we get a front row seat to who made the bad call.

let's follow archi_dude's best post yet. even the don ain't happy with georgia right now.. will be an interesting test case.

Apr 24, 20 10:30 am  · 
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Non Sequitur's comment has been hidden
Non Sequitur
archi_dude

Non why wouldn't you factor in asymptomatic cases? Doesnt seem to make much sense to only calculate based off of people experiencing severe symptoms who only make up 20% of total cases. Not sure I understand their logic.NY times stated today NY probably have 2.2 million total cases not the 290k or whatever. 0.7% is abig difference than 5% no? California likely has 440000 so a 0.14% still worse than the flu though.

Apr 23, 20 7:14 pm  · 
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archi_dude

Clearly I'm in the minority here so just trying to understand the logic.

Apr 23, 20 7:15 pm  · 
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I'll link this again - not corona, but Ebola, and in short, if you don't include asympotmatic into the estimate you'll be way off (which is why more testing would help) link

Apr 23, 20 8:55 pm  · 
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Non Sequitur

Apologies gentlemen, I got about 50 notifications from this thread yesterday so I said fuck that, I'm not digging through this just in case there was something worth replying to... then I remembered I dropped the 2 links to science-based-medicine.org. My intent was not to mic drop these and walk away feeling all high & mighty but to add to the very selective POV expressed above. Discounting the asymptomatic cases is explained in the article here:

Now let’s take a closer look at the case fatality rate. Some have argued that the true number of cases (the denominator) is much higher because there are many unrecognized asymptomatic or minimally symptomatic cases. This is true but misleading. First, this doesn’t really affect the “case fatality” rate, if we define cases as those diagnosed with COVID-19. It is still meaningful to say that if you are diagnosed with COVID-19, the mortality rate is about 5%

I would point out, however, that just diluting the denominator with asymptomatic cases doesn’t really tell us anything about the disease burden. It makes the case fatality rate lower – by making the number of cases much higher. In the end, the number of deaths and morbidity is what we care about.

furthermore

“Facts are stubborn things, but statistics are pliable.”
― Mark Twain

Apr 24, 20 7:05 am  · 
1  · 

per my link though, it's an important part of modeling and per the Ebola cases, to avoid over estimation. because I can assure you this will happen, once the dust settles they'll realize why they over estimated and everyone who lost their job will then veer towards over reach by government and possibly conspiracy theories...in short science will lose another one.

Apr 24, 20 8:28 am  · 
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archi_dude

It's a 5% mortality rate *if you show symptons* it's a 0.3-0.5% mortality rate overall. From what I noticed this is something not fully grasped by most people right now. Sad the article above wants to continue that scare mongering.

Apr 24, 20 8:30 am  · 
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Non Sequitur

Archi, it's not scare mongering, it's about using either end of the statistical approaches to make one's point. Neither option is 100% but how it's explained in the article makes it clear why including the asymptomatic waters down the discussion.

Apr 24, 20 8:35 am  · 
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Non Sequitur

Sheds, I may be wrong in my assumption, but I believe there is a greater body of research on Ebola than C19. More to the point, your article ends with this (emphasis mine): 

All of the conclusions above depend on whether asymptomatic infections are common, and protective against future infection. Further, strategies for leveraging protective immunity will depend on the development and validation of assays (testing) that can reliably identify individuals who are effectively protected against re-infection.

The article finishes with a recommendation for further research with the hypothesis that blood transfusion from the recovered/immune donors (who's existence needs confirmation) as treatment.  Just like JLA earlier posts, one paper is not enough to over-turn the global consensus by itself.

Apr 24, 20 8:40 am  · 
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NS there is more research of course. My point was more testing in general otherwise "consensus" is exactly that - just "consensus" not really Facts per say. I'm just hypothetically pointing out the backfire that will come from over hyping a situation, it plays right into conspiracy theories.

Apr 24, 20 9:29 am  · 
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by definition if the government controlled everything with the media, that would be a conspiracy theory, so you see the issue right - facts and conspiracy theories will flip if you're on the end - I lost my job, life, etc...and everything the government and media spun was way off.

Apr 24, 20 9:31 am  · 
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archi_dude

"Waters it down". Hmm I just dont see it that way. Watering it down would be saying cases with such and such disease dont count. Whereas including all cases would be the true number. These lockdowns and case tracking assumptions were based on WHO numbers that your article was listing. The real mortality rate would probably sway peoples support of the lockdown. additionally even if you dont think that's a good idea. At the very minimum it would show that contact tracking is no longer feasible. You are going to contact trace 2.2 million people in New York, 440,000 in California? It allows you to see the full magnitude of the issue and see if it even makes sense.

Apr 24, 20 9:50 am  · 
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x-jla

archi_dude, it’s about 0.5 for people not showing symptoms or not getting tested. I know many many nyers who were sick and denied testing early on. In my state u only get a test if I’m your death bed. Talk about testing bias.

Apr 24, 20 8:02 pm  · 
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x-jla

.2 or .5 % is still higher than flu, but it’s also a fact that it’s way less deadly than the flu for kids and teens. None of the antibody testing was done on peolle younger than 18. Including kids and teens, the overall numbers are probably even lower.

Apr 24, 20 8:04 pm  · 
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archi_dude

Wanted to post a picture of our site working spaced out, masks/ handkerchiefs, ridiculous amount of handwashing stations ect. But no ones wearing their damn safety glasses because they fog! Ha ha we'll get on that one but morale is good, we've staggered our shifts same with office staff and only have spaced out meetings outside in the lay down yard. Still working but safely!

Apr 23, 20 7:18 pm  · 
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dominiond

SBA loans and CARES ACT- has anyone's firm gotten a loan? We did (luckily) and are squirreling it away because who the F knows where this is all going... we did 10% pay cuts for senior level staff and 5% staff for others. Haven't had to lay off yet...hoping we don't have to...

I don't understand why our firm is being tone deaf on questions about return to work/remote schedules...obviously, we can do it- just ego seems to make the senior leadership think we have to go back to the 20th century "normal" of everyone slogging to the office... are others having that issue in the office? Thanks and take care all-


Apr 23, 20 7:42 pm  · 
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Bench

Management wants people to come back to work as per normal, because any WFH alternative is not feasible? That seems a bit nuts ...

Apr 23, 20 9:38 pm  · 
1  · 

Any secrets on how to get that SBA stuff? No staff at the moment (thanks Virus) but I started this firm with long distance internet WFH and see no issue with it, especially as a small office I do 95% of the client interaction and site visits. Human interaction is great, but most this job as architect entails if not in the field is done on a computer and you can simply call someone if speaking is better. So I don't really understand the anti WFH unless you are heavily field orientated firm?

Apr 23, 20 10:18 pm  · 
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Chad Miller

We're only a 12 person firm but we are all working from home. Most of us dislike it as everything is really slow since WFH was thrown together. The three partners want everyone to be safe and WFH though. Decent people.

Apr 24, 20 10:10 am  · 
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square.

interesting; we're roughly the same size and everybody it taking it on well, and even feeling more productive in certain ways. i don't think anyone prefers it every single day, but most of us feel there's no reason we couldn't do this at least 1-2 days a week whenever things return to "normal."

Apr 24, 20 10:28 am  · 
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Apple_Juice_Yes

@dominion - just curious, how big is your firm and what region?

Apr 24, 20 1:29 pm  · 
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Chad Miller

square - I think it's due to the horrible lag we get while using Revit and other high demand programs. We're doing remote access into our office PCs so things are slow unless your have cable or fiber internet. Even then things seem to be about 20% slower.

Apr 27, 20 12:11 pm  · 
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Chad Miller's comment has been hidden
Chad Miller

Shut up Rick. You need to have Revit on your computer to do a remote login from you home PC to the office PC.

Apr 27, 20 1:53 pm  · 
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square.

chad, interesting.. yes, i've been surprised at how well our internet is holding up, and it does make it feel pretty seamless . i use a combination of vpn and remote login

Apr 27, 20 2:11 pm  · 
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Chad Miller

Yeah we're just using remote login, no VPN.

Apr 27, 20 3:34 pm  · 
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Chad Miller's comment has been hidden
Chad Miller

Rick - you are a moron. You really have no idea how a zoom style meeting works in an architectural firm.

Apr 27, 20 3:50 pm  · 
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bofillintheblank

Got let go this A.M. after trying to log in to the VPN and my credentials were blocked. Had to call them to get the news. 

Apr 24, 20 8:13 am  · 
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Architects are such wimps! Beta types. We wonder why Contractors always win - Alpha types.

Apr 24, 20 8:25 am  · 
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CodesareFUN

That is such a bullshit way to go about things, yet so common. A couple of my friends had the same thing happen. It sucks now but you’ll be better off at the next place.

Apr 24, 20 8:49 am  · 
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midlander

i was talking to a friend who found out his salary was cut last month after 2 paychecks in a row came up short. he thought it was a withholding mistake - accounting kept deferring him until finally the regional director admitted it :/ I guess they hoped to use ignorance to boost morale. (not an architect btw, unrelated field)

Apr 24, 20 11:30 am  · 
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sp429

I'm so sorry to hear that... they could have at least given you a call...

Apr 24, 20 10:51 am  · 
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archieb

Signed the offer letter. Gave my two week notice. I was strung along for those two weeks by the new employer only for them to call me at 5 PM onFriday to tell me I won't be starting on Monday. Zero indication that was a possibility for those two weeks.

A week later I get a two sentence email saying offer is rescinded and to fuck off.

Apr 24, 20 12:02 pm  · 
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molten

Jesus. I understand that firms can't take on new people right now but at least give people a head's up. This whole thing is really bringing out people's true colors.

Apr 24, 20 12:22 pm  · 
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Phantom

Archieb,

I know the feeling. The same thing happened to me, my initial start date was pushed back 3 weeks and then the week prior to the new start date got an email rescinding the offer. Talk about bad luck....  I graduated in 2009 on top of it; dejavu. 

Apr 24, 20 1:11 pm  · 
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CodesareFUN

That’s a name and shame for sure, screw burning a bridge. That’s a firm you want nothing to do with.

Apr 24, 20 1:34 pm  · 
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liberty bell

I mean, if you’re anon here, there’s absolutely no reason not to name and shame.

Apr 28, 20 10:59 pm  · 
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Fancy1118

Yeah - I really want to know what firm did that. It's so unethical.

Apr 29, 20 10:29 am  · 
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zonker

just like in 08' ,soon people will be working for free again on strung along on a pro bono project that never materializes

Apr 24, 20 12:33 pm  · 
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archanonymous

We should be naming names here. 

Who acted shitty and didn't take care of their employees (or even bothered to extend common courtesies) so that their staffing and talent pools can wither and die.

Apr 24, 20 1:17 pm  · 
2  · 
CodesareFUN

Agreed. Firms treating people like shit right now treat them like shit anyway and need to die out.

Apr 24, 20 1:33 pm  · 
1  · 
peterjones

BUMP BUMP

Apr 24, 20 2:08 pm  · 
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amarchy

Gensler did. But it’s really no surprise the corporate mega giant always puts profits over people. It’s why they are a billion dollar company. They will do whatever it takes to keep those margins high. Profits, Clients, Employees. That’s their order.

Apr 26, 20 11:15 pm  · 
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liberty bell

I mean, if you’re anon here, there’s absolutely no reason not to name and shame.

Apr 28, 20 11:00 pm  · 
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zonker's comment has been hidden
zonker

after the 08' recession, I worked at one firm as 1099 for 3 years, very low pay, long hours. That firm died out and the movers came and took all the furniture

Apr 24, 20 1:45 pm  · 
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revolutionary poet's comment has been hidden
revolutionary poet

Dear Chgina,

knock it off. oh you did.

toodles

- so like my dad was skulls and bones, I was like some fruity fraternity

Apr 25, 20 12:52 am  · 
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tduds

Somehow I still have stuff to do.

keeping these fingers crossed.

Apr 27, 20 12:24 pm  · 
1  · 

the turn is coming, I can feel the take-off happening starting today.

Apr 27, 20 1:09 pm  · 
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x-jla

I felt like I hit a brick wall when this first happened, then about a week ago I started getting an abnormally high amount of leads. I think construction and design will suffer more down the line when the foreclosures start flooding the RE market.

Apr 27, 20 2:15 pm  · 
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x-jla

I do residential landscape design/build, so I’m sure that my experience is not representative of the whole. People are home rn thinking about the projects they have been wanting to do. This re-focus on domestic life is interesting. Not sure how it’s going to play out into to larger picture of things in the years to come...

Apr 27, 20 2:21 pm  · 
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tduds

My wife is in the same position (residential landscape design). She was all geared up for a lay-off & then signed three clients in a week. Turns out folks with enough money to hire her company still have that money, and now they're spending their days staring at the back yard & getting antsy.

Apr 27, 20 2:47 pm  · 
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x-jla

Yeah, commercial markets are probably going to be hit hardest. Remember, in 2008 there was a surplus of residential inventory due to over building. Now we have housing shortages in many places. That may actually protect the residential RE markets for a little while. The 2008 crash also hurt the working class and middle class the hardest. This time around,

Apr 27, 20 3:34 pm  · 
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x-jla

It’s likely going to be more about specific industries that get hit real hard like restaurants and hospitality. Retail and all that will probably bounce back quickly.

Apr 27, 20 3:38 pm  · 
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x-jla's comment has been hidden
x-jla

https://www.google.com/amp/s/reason.com/2020/04/26/miami-dade-antibody-tests-suggests-covid-19-infections-exceed-confirmed-cases-by-a-factor-of-16/%3famp


more good news...a little hard to find info on this one...msm not really reporting....too busy warning people that Trump said dumb stuff again.  

Apr 27, 20 1:07 pm  · 
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damn, I injected drano, is it too late? We ought to just put the media and Trump in a cage and let them go at it, while we go back to our lives....

Apr 27, 20 1:10 pm  · 
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x-jla

Your supposed to inject it? Oops, I poured it in my asshole....

Apr 27, 20 1:30 pm  · 
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tduds

Or just put Trump in a cage.

Apr 27, 20 2:09 pm  · 
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x-jla

What, and ruin the circus? We need entertainment in quarantine.

Apr 27, 20 3:42 pm  · 
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tduds

I don't think fascism is entertaining.

Apr 27, 20 3:45 pm  · 
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x-jla

Guess you’ve never seen hitler on a unicycle...

Apr 27, 20 4:08 pm  · 
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Non Sequitur

Hitler loves unicycles.

Apr 27, 20 7:14 pm  · 
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/\ love that one....

Unfortunately we are not getting the same architecture as the Italians did back in the day hanging with Fascists.

Filippo Tommaso Marinetti.   then see their Architect who died in war (they liked war in theory)

Sant Elia

https://d7hftxdivxxvm.cloudfront.net/?resize_to=width&src=https%3A%2F%2Fartsy-media-uploads.s3.amazonaws.com%2FWad6YM-PUKk8D-dMEI4upg%252Fd7hftxdivxxvm.cloudfront-15.jpg&width=1200&quality=80

Instead we get brass shit.

Trump Tower Lobby Midtown East New York City






AHHH!

Apr 27, 20 7:44 pm  · 
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CodesareFUN

Will you two quit your “Who’s the biggest Internet dumbass troll” pissing match and allow this thread to get back to the topic of layoffs? Damn you both suck.

Apr 27, 20 7:56 pm  · 
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Chad Miller

My wife and I aren't getting any stimulus payment. We recently bought a house and to do so sold some stock in 2019. Because we filed our taxes as soon as we got all our finical information we 'made' too much money due to capitol gains. At least someone else who needs it will get the stimulus.

Apr 28, 20 10:00 am  · 
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If I hadn't filed my taxes so early this year, our stimulus check would have been close to the full amount. Instead it was less than a quarter of my normal paycheck (most of that comes from having a child) ... which is perfectly fine with me too. We don't need the money and have been spending it supporting local businesses as much as we can so they can hopefully stay out of bankruptcy and keep their employees.

Apr 28, 20 11:37 am  · 
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Chad Miller

Shut the fuck up Ricky.

Apr 28, 20 1:16 pm  · 
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x-jla

wow chad, what did he do? Seems like an overreaction.

Apr 28, 20 1:56 pm  · 
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x-jla

The money should go to unemployment and businesses. It’s a huge waste to just hand it out to everyone.

Apr 28, 20 1:57 pm  · 
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Chad Miller

I told Rick to STFU because he's spreading incorrect information.


Oh and it was more of a general response to the majority of his comments.  

Apr 29, 20 10:23 am  · 
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x-jla

Oh, you actually read it...I usually just read first and last sentence.

Apr 29, 20 12:33 pm  · 
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proto

we got direct deposit for the stimulus on 4/15. we got the Trump letter yesterday

zero on PPP to date, despite being ready to apply 4/3 & officially applying 4/14 once allowed to do so

zero on EIDL to date, despite applying 3/30

Apr 28, 20 12:45 pm  · 
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tduds

Also received the direct deposit 4/15. The (unnecessary, imo) letter arrived last week. I might light it on fire.

We're donating our stimulus. Other people need it more than we do.

Apr 28, 20 1:22 pm  · 
1  · 
proto

that's good of you -- we're fairly nervous about workflow...ours went in the emergency fund for now

Apr 28, 20 1:48 pm  · 
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CodesareFUN

No one is going to buy your Commodore 64 game.

Apr 28, 20 2:56 pm  · 
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CodesareFUN

Still will never be completed, just like all other things you’ve tried.

Apr 28, 20 10:42 pm  · 
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shellarchitect

I think we all prefer to be proved wrong....

Apr 29, 20 8:17 am  · 
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tduds

Yeah let's see your Patreon.

Apr 29, 20 11:36 am  · 
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x-jla

Rick I hope you took my advice and started a Goonies tour around Astoria OR.

Apr 29, 20 12:32 pm  · 
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x-jla

You’ll make bank bro.

Apr 29, 20 12:33 pm  · 
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x-jla

“Pinchers or peril, I’ve been saved by my pinchers of peril” Love that movie

Apr 29, 20 12:34 pm  · 
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archiwutm8

Really don't know what I'm going to do after this is all over, my company was making us come in and really reluctant to allow us to WFH until mandatory gov lockdown.

So many friends are unemployed and loads are looking at new alternatives, this has all hit me in the face and I have no clue what I'm doing.

What's everyone's plans?

Apr 28, 20 4:26 pm  · 
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curtkram

drink

Apr 28, 20 8:28 pm  · 
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CodesareFUN

Truly the only way to make it through this profession.

Apr 28, 20 10:42 pm  · 
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liberty bell

curtkram you are an absolute joy.

Apr 28, 20 10:57 pm  · 
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curtkram

lol. i really can't tell if your comment is literal or cynical LB. either way, i'll toast to your health.

Apr 29, 20 11:30 am  · 
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It's 100% earnest, curtkram! You say so much in so few words (a rare skill on these forums).

Apr 30, 20 9:36 pm  · 
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shellarchitect's comment has been hidden
shellarchitect

Wife (nurse) got laid off last week from the hospital. I know she doesn't see it this way, but I think it's a good thing.  She now has way more time to home school our kids, she gets 12 weeks severance, and had 7.5 weeks of vacation, all paid out as a lump sum.  Unemployment is close to what she was making before, and the hospital is still paying a portion of cobra insurance, which does not include a surcharge for me, so our insurance costs have gone way down for the next 12 weeks.

I'm a little baffled as to how this even helps the hospital.  Everyone in my wife's group had been there a long time and got a similar payout.

I'm pretty sure that she'll be hired back before the severance runs out, definitely in the next 20 weeks.  I'd really like her to go to another hospital system so we don't have to pay back anything, but we'll cross that bridge when it comes.

Apr 29, 20 8:28 am  · 
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Bench

Sorry to hear that shell. NPR had a report on this yesterday as well when I was listening, that a lot of hospitals are cutting staff because of liquidity problems with elective surgeries getting postponed; this seems bonkers that any staff in any medical profession would be getting laid off at a time like this!

Apr 29, 20 8:34 am  · 
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Non Sequitur

Oie, sorry to hear that but what I'm more stuck with above the idea of dismissing healthcare workers is that unemployment is close to normal wage. Also worth noting that I don't understand the US for profit hospital jive.

Apr 29, 20 9:09 am  · 
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liberty bell

The US system (if it can even be called that) is laughably bad, except I can’t laugh because it’s so terrible.

Apr 29, 20 10:40 am  · 
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Bench

" Also worth noting that I don't understand the US for profit hospital jive. "

you and me both ...

Apr 29, 20 10:46 am  · 
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x-jla

The us health care system has proven itself superior to the European heath care system in quality of care. Have you been living in an msnbc cave? Did you not see how overwhelmed the European hospitals were? Compare the fatality rates. Insurance system sucks, but clearly the profit system vs socialized medicine produces a better refined product.

Apr 29, 20 11:12 am  · 
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x-jla

On par with Germany and Canada despite the fact that we got hit the hardest and likely have a much higher comorbidity.

Apr 29, 20 11:14 am  · 
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square.

"What accounts for the big drop between Sweden and Greece? Why does the United States have one-third the CFR of Great Britain? It’s not because of our low testing rate: if we tested more and therefore uncovered more cases, our CFR would be even lower. Does it have something to do with demographics? National health profiles? The quality of medical care? I don’t know"

it's good news. but notice how this reporter, who's job it is to follow this, notes a certain level of nuance is necessary in interpreting these numbers, and the fact is we really don't have a great handle on a lot of the information regarding this virus.

jla-x- you're still blind to the fact that every one of your posts is based off of assumptions, unproven correlations, and opinion; the very article you posted proves how laughable your assertions are.

Apr 29, 20 11:27 am  · 
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square.

i, along with the rest of the world, would also consider greece, denmark, norway, portugal, switzerland, germany, ireland and austria, all of whom have similar rates as the us, a part of europe. so, no, we have not been proven to be better than europe, nor socialized medicine, just some countries in europe which happen to have socialized medicine (see the nuance? it's not hard, give it a try)

Apr 29, 20 11:36 am  · 
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x-jla

Square, the areas that were hit at a similar level as US did not fare as well as the US. Canada, Ireland, Germany, etc do not have nearly the amount of cases as we did. They are also much smaller countries. It’s not controversial that the US has some of the best medical facilities in the world. Yes, insurance system is a disaster, but the for profit medical system has led to a high quality medical system.

Apr 29, 20 11:53 am  · 
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tduds

The US has the best medical care in the world and some of the worst access to that care for the average citizen. "The hospitals are good!" is not a counterpoint to the claim that few can afford them.

Apr 29, 20 11:57 am  · 
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square.

germany, who have socialized medicine, have a relatively high case/100,000 people (not far behind the us- comparing total cases is apples to oranges, but you don't seem to understand that), and a much better death rate than the us. not to mention the nationalized health care likely has something to do with preventing people from contracting the virus.

Apr 29, 20 11:59 am  · 
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x-jla

Tduds, I agree with that.

Apr 29, 20 12:24 pm  · 
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x-jla

Square, not saying that all socialized medicine is always bad, just saying that it’s also not always good either. Like anything else, the devil is in the details. Government can be just as bad or worse at management as private industry. The profit/loss system seems to usually keep quality in check. Without that, market forces are completely replaced with govt management.

Apr 29, 20 12:30 pm  · 
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x-jla

And the flip side is overprescribing drugs, lack of wellness care, etc. I acknowledge that truth. For profit medical has many downsides as well.

Apr 29, 20 12:31 pm  · 
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Non Sequitur

For profit medial is all downsides. All I need to worry about is paying my parking.

Apr 29, 20 12:38 pm  · 
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square.

but clearly the profit system vs socialized medicine produces a better refined product.

i appreciate the level-headed response now, but your initial words suggested otherwise. perhaps before you post you should take the time to formulate a more nuanced response instead of stupid over-simplifications.

Apr 29, 20 2:31 pm  · 
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x-jla

Remember, for profit is also “for loss”. In a litigious society that leads to a very careful approach to everything. Competition is always a good thing. Some of the European systems lack competition. South Korea on the other hand has a spectacular HC system while still having equitable care.
https://mises.org/wire/markets-vs-socialism-why-south-korean-healthcare-outperforming-italy-covid-19

Apr 29, 20 2:59 pm  · 
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JMArch

No stimulus here. No unemployment insurance for the moment either. As usual, I fell into a 'unique situation'. I was a contract employee (for way too many years) at the last firm that I was at, so naturally I got the axe a couple weeks ago. (Longer story and not pertinent to this reply.)  

Because of the amount of bank that I earned for the employment agency, and they qualify for a portion of the paycheck protection - they've decided to keep me on for the next couple of months as a 'benched' employee before I get pushed to the state breadline. 

There were a lot of hard lessons learned during the '08-'09, and I sold off nearly everything that I owned to make the bills and had a battle plan to live out of my car on a bare minimum of assets... I got hired as a consultant a week before that was set to begin. 

With every paycheck since then, I've been taking care of my entire family - so not having an income hits multiple households in multiple states. 

This time - I've made moves to keep that harsh reality at bay for a while - but I still am unsure what my future holds. Right now its organizing 25 years of work and TBs of Revit and project data to consolidate everything and get the work history itemized for potential future work. 

There may be a nimble pivot coming, or at the very least a few more iterations of developing tools, software and basic knowledge to do more with less in an ever-compressed schedule. 

Archi Competitions are a decent way to keep the brain busy and hands moving - so maybe some of that. Who knows. 

I've been thru this all before - and for everyone in this same boat, you have my full empathy for your situation. The last time, changed me. I have no doubt that I'll be changed again after this. 

Apr 29, 20 8:56 am  · 
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liberty bell

JMArch, are you saying that you were basically a forever contract worker, never an employee?

Apr 29, 20 10:42 am  · 
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JMArch

Yes indeed. I didn't fit in any given company category and there was a sizable discrepancy in my perceived value as an employee, and negotiations for compensation. It wasn't a great situation.

Apr 29, 20 11:02 am  · 
2  · 
JMArch

I'm an introvert largely - I'm doing fine. It's others that I worry about. The mental health strain has already had an impact in my neighborhood. For me? I tend to invent things to solve when I don't have deadlines. Not designing buildings? Design process. (there's got to be a better way to practice - Front end tools, Revit library, Lean Management, Systematic approaches to hospitality/mixed use production - Solve the housing shortage?). Coding lately doesn't involve the IBC. Python, Dynamo, Grasshopper - Linkedin Learning, AU, Youtube, redoing a couple decades of project sheets, catching up on reading, sketching... all the things that I was 'too busy' to pull off working 60+ hours a week. This is my 'second tour' of architecture being seen as a disposable profession... always the first to get cut and the last to come back. Shame that so much influence has been transferred out of the profession and deemed 'non-essential'.

Apr 29, 20 4:22 pm  · 
2  · 
archi_dude's comment has been hidden
archi_dude

So will Sweden be the new economic power house? They took a balanced and sustainable approach to all this and looks like they'll be pretty close to being done with it this summer. 

Apr 29, 20 9:40 am  · 
 · 
Bench

That came with a high cost compared to their adjacent Nordic countries.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/28/europe/sweden-coronavirus-lockdown-strategy-intl/index.html

Apr 29, 20 9:43 am  · 
 · 
archi_dude

I guess if you are only able to understand
things in the short term.

Apr 29, 20 10:08 am  · 
 · 
Bench

Always surprised at peopl who claim to value life, until it hits them economically.

Apr 29, 20 10:31 am  · 
 · 
Bench

A much better example would be NZ.

Apr 29, 20 10:46 am  · 
 · 
x-jla

NZ is still a sitting duck for a second wave. Sweden likely has some degree of herd immunity.

Apr 29, 20 11:06 am  · 
 · 
Chad Miller

It’s far too early to be making assumptions about how long immunity will last after infection with the COVID-19 virus.It sounds like that the scientific and epidemiological community are cautiously optimistic that this will be a stable virus though.

Apr 29, 20 11:20 am  · 
 · 
x-jla

Yes, but from what I’ve heard them saying, it’s likely that we will have some immunity for a some period of time based on other coronaviruses.

Apr 29, 20 11:41 am  · 
 · 
Chad Miller

Some immunity for some period of time - that's rather flimsy and seems to be a good recipe for another outbreak.

Apr 29, 20 11:46 am  · 
 · 
x-jla

if a virus antibody doesn’t last long, is a vaccine still effective? Isn’t a vaccine a way to trick body into a producing antibodies?

Apr 29, 20 12:22 pm  · 
 · 
Chad Miller

I do not know. I do know that the reason we don't have vaccines for the common cold and flue is that the viruses mutate constantly. For example if you get a flue shot it's actually comprised of around six different strains of the virus. If you get a specialized flue shot then those virus strains are chosen based on where you live and what strains are common in that area. If you revive a generic flue shot then you receive strains based on a national average of the six most commonly occurring virus strains. Clearly if the COVID-19 virus mutates like the flue then vaccines will be much more difficult to produce as then would need to be constantly changing and people would need to receive such a treatment every year. If the COVID-19 virus is stable them vaccines would be viable and only need to be provided once every 10 years or so

Apr 29, 20 12:42 pm  · 
 · 
randomised

The difference in casualties in the Nordic countries apparently is because in Sweden they have many more group homes for the elderly AND they have lots of migrant workers at those facilities that apparently don’t speak or understand Swedish all too well and didn’t understand the sometimes complicated Covid instructions and regulations. Will see how this pans out in the long run...Kudos to them for not panicking like the rest of ‘em and keeping calm and carrying on.

Apr 29, 20 1:51 pm  · 
 · 
SneakyPete

You'd probably be better off explaining this to your dog, at least the dog will do its best to listen.

Apr 29, 20 1:52 pm  · 
 · 
sameolddoctor

People that compare the Swedish model to the US are inherently stupid. Notwithstanding the fact there are are quite a lot of deaths there too, one needs to understand that their healthcare system is much more equitable than the US, and most importantly, they have much lower inequality and population density. For everyone claiming to open up the economy right away, I would have then sign a "Do not Resuscitate" form, so they dont crowd our hospitals.

Apr 29, 20 1:57 pm  · 
 · 
x-jla

Do you know the case fatality rate for a healthy 40yo in the US? It’s about 0.04%- 0.01% Possibly lower. Your hysterical reaction is based on a segment of the population having really bad outcomes. No need for everyone to stay home. No one is arguing that 70yo diabetics should go out.

Apr 29, 20 2:07 pm  · 
 · 
x-jla

That’s based on NY data which is also Probably worse than most of nation.

Apr 29, 20 2:08 pm  · 
 · 
Chad Miller

Empathy is not hysteria jla-x.

Apr 29, 20 2:09 pm  · 
 · 
x-jla

Now, weigh that against the economic problems that most 30-40 year olds will be stuck in for decade to come. if this thing is even nearly as bad as 08...we fucked. likely it’s worse.

Apr 29, 20 2:11 pm  · 
 · 

I'm not worried about the 30-40 year olds out there. I'm worried about the people the 30-40 year olds will infect because they're asymptomatic.

Apr 29, 20 2:22 pm  · 
 · 
Chad Miller

/\ THAT!

Apr 29, 20 2:33 pm  · 
 · 
x-jla

EA, exactly, which is why we can still isolate high risk groups. Resources should go to them rather than everyone getting a 1200$ check. The young and healthy can return to work, maintain distancing, hygiene, etc.

Apr 29, 20 2:34 pm  · 
 · 
x-jla

Anyone with a comorbidity or over a certain age should be placed on a UBI for x months. Same for priority when a vaccine is out. No need to waste resources and cripple the economy on people
with such a low risk.

Apr 29, 20 2:37 pm  · 
 · 
x-jla

And if they live with an old person then they can do what’s right for their particular situation.

Apr 29, 20 2:38 pm  · 
 · 
x-jla

Partial reopening

Apr 29, 20 2:43 pm  · 
 · 
Chad Miller

Not a bad idea jla-x. Too bad it's all up to the individual states to have to pay for and decide how to do everything. No Central guidelines or leadership. ::grumpy face::

Apr 29, 20 2:55 pm  · 
 · 

Even if the young and healthy go back to work and you're able to effectively isolate the high risk groups (which isn't likely), I don't know that the economy will be all that much better off. As the young and healthy maintain distancing, hygiene, etc. they probably won't be frequenting many shops and restaurants that they aren't already going to. 

The lunch crowd, for example, that might have frequented their favorite lunch spot will still be down (maybe call it a lunch gathering instead) as not everyone can go back into the office at once and maintain social distance. However, the owner of that lunch spot will feel like they still need to keep the doors open for even a chance to make enough to pay their bills. But without the same volume, will they be able to make enough to pay the bills? ... their overhead largely stays the same to keep the doors open right? Will they be able to keep the same workforce if they have to keep more distance between workers while working? Maybe they raise their lunch prices slightly so they can make it work with less volume ... is the lunch crowd going to pay the higher price as they worry about their own savings and whether or not they're going to get laid off in the second wave?

Apr 29, 20 2:56 pm  · 
 · 

Look, I'm not saying that keeping everything closed or opening it back up slowly, or even opening things up all at once, is the right or wrong thing to do. I'm just saying that there is more to the nuance than it seems like people are really discussing. One big issue it seems is the same issue that plagued us from the start ... testing. I don't see it as being helpful to open things back up without adequate testing to make sure that there aren't asymptomatic carriers spreading the virus without knowing it. That might mean that if you are going in to the office you need to be tested once a week or more. In my mind, we need testing capacity and resources first, then a slow open with the ability to throttle back if we start to see a spike in numbers again. It will probably also be based on a more granular level than states too. What works for a rural area of one state probably won't work for the large metropolitan areas of the same state.

Apr 29, 20 3:02 pm  · 
 · 
randomised

wash hands, don't touch face, keep your distance, wear a mask and stay home when having a fever or cold-like covid symptoms...it really is not rocket science.

Apr 29, 20 3:16 pm  · 
 · 
x-jla

Restaurants, stadiums, amusement parks, and theaters will probably not bounce back for a long long time. Certain industries are probably doomed with or without ending the lockdown. That’s true. Other industries will probably bounce back quickly. There is no need to cripple the entire economy by strangling these companies from more months of income loss and debt. We will have enough to deal with from the doomed industries. Damage to the economy is inevitable. It’s now about mitigation and innovation. For the whole construction industry, we already have to comply with OSHA. Maybe OSHA needs to expand its requirements for covid-19? They already have the infrastructure to dictate workplace safety. Now just need to add a layer somehow.

Apr 29, 20 3:17 pm  · 
 · 

randomised, see my previous comments about lack of nuance in the discussion. 

jla-x, did the libertarian just ask for more government regulation and oversight?

Apr 29, 20 3:26 pm  · 
 · 
x-jla

I've never had a problem with reasonable codes and safety requirements. Do you think libertarians are advocating to remove ”employees must wash hands” signs from bathrooms? We are far more concerned with military industrial complex, first amendment protection, etc. safety regs are way down on the totem pole just below public masterbation and cousin marrying.

Apr 29, 20 3:40 pm  · 
 · 
randomised

EA, what lack of nuance? The things people should do to not spread the virus or to not get infected are really not that complicated, it is all common sense.

Apr 29, 20 3:42 pm  · 
 · 
archi_dude

The argument that immunity after getting sick is too flimsy and we need to wait for a vaccine makes no sense. If theres no immunity after getting sick theres no immunity with a vaccine then. So again, you can only hide under your covers so long.

Apr 29, 20 3:44 pm  · 
 · 
sameolddoctor

jla, you are truly asinine. Simple logic is, if more and more people get sick, our healthcare system will simply collapse, and even if by your logic, young people will not die, the ones that contract the disease will be left with hundreds of thousands of dollars, which will merely be added to their student debts.

Apr 29, 20 3:45 pm  · 
 · 
x-jla

sameolddoctor, You are making wild assumptions based on very biased testing. 25% of NYC has already been infected. The vast majority of young people that got the disease did not need or seek hospital care. This disease is mostly mild for healthy young people. The vast majority of hospitalizations were people with pre-existing conditions or the elderly. Like I said, they can and should remain isolated.

Apr 29, 20 3:55 pm  · 
 · 
randomised

archi_dude, they did testing at blood banks here in NL and there are covid antibodies in roughly 3% of the population, no way herd immunity is working (here). Best option against these kinds of viruses is herd resilience by building strong immune systems: sleep plenty, exercise regularly, eat healthy...

And if vaccines don't work (long), there might reason for some to hide until a treatment/cure is found that can be given to a person each time they test positive for covid-19

Apr 29, 20 4:15 pm  · 
 · 
x-jla

Absolutely ^. Staying strong is best defense. By staying indoors and washing hands 100x a day we are Weakening immune system too.

Apr 29, 20 4:32 pm  · 
 · 

randomised, the lack of nuance is the simplistic response that common sense, hand washing, wearing a mask, and staying home when sick is all we need. It's definitely part of the solution, I'm not saying it isn't, but it's not the only thing that will keep people healthy. There are a lot of people without regular access to hand washing, there are people who spread the disease without showing symptoms and so never would have stayed home. We can't even get enough masks for the docs and nurses, but somehow we have enough for everyone to wear one when out in public? That's what I was getting at with my lack of nuance comment.

Apr 29, 20 4:52 pm  · 
 · 

jla-x, I thought the free market should solve those problems. Why do we need OSHA to tell us what a safe workplace is? If I as a worker don't feel safe, I'll just leave and work somewhere else that is safer. If I'm an employer and all my employees leave because they don't feel safe, I should probably spend some more money on safety gear. Free market FTW.

Apr 29, 20 4:56 pm  · 
 · 
randomised

My sarcasm must have gotten lost in translation when sliced to pieces by Occam's razor. Clearly the States is full of people who don't have common sense, all the way to the top. That's why you're hit so hard during this pandemic, not to mention the obesity epidemic that makes almost everybody part of a risk group having a pre-existing condition or two, no offence...

Apr 29, 20 5:00 pm  · 
 · 
x-jla

EA, your understanding of the free market lacks nuance.

Apr 29, 20 5:04 pm  · 
 · 
x-jla

You are arguing to the extremes. Go move to China if you want state controlled markets and speech.

Apr 29, 20 5:09 pm  · 
 · 
randomised

Sorry, it's late, had to get up at 05:00, and could only start working today at 21:00, two hours in and I'm done. And there was a shooting this evening 50 meter from my house, in the park I take my kids to every day, love this lockdown...and now with the ramadan on its way even more people with a short fuse, ugh...

Apr 29, 20 5:11 pm  · 
 · 

Are we still keeping score of times we get jla-x to complain about someone arguing in the same manner as he usually does? Cause if so, I get two points for the lacking nuance, and the arguing to extremes comments. 

randomised, sorry to hear about the shooting. That's terrible. Stay safe.

Apr 29, 20 6:12 pm  · 
 · 
x-jla

Are we still keeping score of times we get EA to complain about someone arguing in the same manner as he usually does? ——fixed it.

Apr 29, 20 6:33 pm  · 
 · 

I'm rubber and you're glue would have been a better comeback. Getting sloppy jla-x.

Apr 29, 20 7:30 pm  · 
 · 
x-jla

You keep doing it though. You said arguing to extremes is bad...I think it’s sometimes useful...then you do the same over and over. Just calling out the hypocrisy

Apr 30, 20 1:55 pm  · 
 · 

I don't to it to make an argument though. I was only making fun of the libertarian asking for regulation rather than a free market. I understand there is more nuance to it. Maybe you even understand that nuance, but you're not really offering that in your arguments, so I call you out on it and make fun of you for it. 

You use it because you think it's useful for winning arguments. It only helps you "win" because the other person gives up because it's ridiculous to try to argue with someone who can't think critically enough to recognize the fallacies in their own arguments.

Apr 30, 20 2:26 pm  · 
 · 
x-jla

Incorrect. I do it because it reveals the extremes of an ideology and forces you to determine what’s too far- something that liberals/socialists almost always can’t do. We libertarians know what too far means....libertarianism is actually a moderate ideology, not an absolutist one. Anarchy is the absolute elimination of all regulations. Libertarianism is minimalist government. Like minimalist architecture this does not mean removing all tectonics and sleeping on the bare ground.

Apr 30, 20 3:07 pm  · 
 · 
x-jla

Should say progressives not liberals...

Apr 30, 20 3:11 pm  · 
 · 
randomised

Thanks EA, sorry for the lack of nuance

Apr 30, 20 3:17 pm  · 
 · 
x-jla

Therefore no contradiction in my point...if a regulation is necessary it gets put into the minimalist required structure. If a problem can be solved without government, then it’s should be solved without government. The market cannot solve all problems, but it can solve most. There is also a big distinction between regulations that are a hassle and laws/regulations that infringe on ones liberty. Not being allowed to piss in the street does not infringe on my liberty. It’s not my street, so we have rules. Big big difference. You are judging libertarianism by the party and it’s spin offs. I’m referring to the core philosophy...I don’t believe in political parties at all.

Apr 30, 20 3:21 pm  · 
 · 
square.

i appreciate that jla-x is trying to use "nuance," though he hasn't credited me for introducing him to the word

Apr 30, 20 3:54 pm  · 
 · 

And there we go, back to arguing extremes again. I'm not trying to argue the merits (of lack thereof) of your argument, so no need to come back with more of it ... I'm just here to point out the fallacies. 

The premise of your statement that libertarians know what too far means as opposed to [progressives]/socialists encourages an "us" vs. "them" false dichotomy (i.e. extremes). You try to establish libertarians as the middle ground (in contrast to anarchy) in a bad attempt to deflect from the black vs. white dichotomy (as apparently libertarians would be the gray) but it is still a false dilemma. It's also a bad attempt at nuance.

Even accepting that "too far" is known, or even some type of established, absolute is a false dilemma and reduction to absurdity. 

I should also mention that your point of "if a problem can be solved without government, then it should be solved without government" is a false dilemma. Following that up with the statement that the market can solve most problems sets up that fallacy well to suit your own viewpoint. However, it is still a false dilemma ... as is the implication you sneak in there that regulations/laws are either a hassle, or an infringement on ones liberty. 

Thanks for playing.

Apr 30, 20 4:33 pm  · 
 · 
x-jla

If we go back to the libertarianism thread I already made the case and castrated you and others. I care not to take a deep dive on this thread. Progressives may know what “too far” is, but they certainly won’t admit it. How much taxes are too much? “Uhhh durp...”.

Apr 30, 20 4:52 pm  · 
1  · 
x-jla

Free markets are a requirement for a free society. Very simple. Can’t have freedom and liberty without the ability to engage in free commerce. There are zero societies with civil liberties that don’t also have economic liberty. ZERO

Apr 30, 20 4:55 pm  · 
1  · 
square.

how much taxes

Apr 30, 20 4:55 pm  · 
 · 

I don’t remember that thread and ... yep, still got the jewels so ...

May 1, 20 11:42 am  · 
 · 

I dug around to find the thread you remember. I was never a part of it, so you can apologize for the comment about castrating me. As for the others ... all I can say is that you have an active, imaginative, and selective memory. For those who don't want to take the time; jla-x argued straw men and extremes while others tried to argue reasonably with logic. In the end, the others all gave up trying and jla-x (apparently) claimed victory.

May 1, 20 1:23 pm  · 
 ·  1
Non Sequitur

I just checked, I can confirm there was no castration on my side.

May 1, 20 1:25 pm  · 
 ·  1
zonker

I had a chance to move to NZ, I worked for the San Francisco office of a NZ based AE firm and they asked us if we wanted to transfer to their NZ offices

Apr 29, 20 12:25 pm  · 
 · 
Chad Miller

That would have been nice! Assuming the pay was comparable with the increased cost of living.

Apr 29, 20 12:27 pm  · 
 · 
x-jla

I hear NZ is very hard to move to. They have very strick and limited immigration.

Apr 29, 20 1:02 pm  · 
 · 
Chad Miller

Rather easy with when it's for a job.

Apr 29, 20 1:22 pm  · 
 · 
SneakyPete

Holmes?

Apr 29, 20 1:51 pm  · 
 · 
randomised

NZ is beautiful and the people super friendly and open minded. And...Flight of the Conchords obviously

Apr 29, 20 1:55 pm  · 
 · 
x-jla

I’m sure it is. What could anyone living there have to be upset about. It’s paradise.

Apr 29, 20 2:12 pm  · 
 · 
randomised

Too many sheep and the sea esp in the south is too cold to enjoy a swim?

Apr 29, 20 2:28 pm  · 
 · 
zonker

Yes you can got to NZ when it's with job, he firm offered us 18 month temp visas - I passed on it and got laid off instead, things were slow in the SF office, that was dumb

Apr 29, 20 8:41 pm  · 
 · 
sameolddoctor's comment has been hidden
sameolddoctor

For jla-x and buddies:

Apr 29, 20 3:54 pm  · 
 · 
Chad Miller

Hahahahahaha!

Apr 29, 20 4:19 pm  · 
 · 
drums please, Fab?

DON'T THREAD ON ME!

Apr 29, 20 4:22 pm  · 
 · 
x-jla

When Jessie Ventura runs and wins you won’t be laughing.

Apr 29, 20 5:09 pm  · 
 · 
Chad Miller

That ass hat is way to paranoid to run.

Apr 29, 20 5:53 pm  · 
 · 

/\ dude, Trump won. At least Ventura was a Navy seal sort of, bruh....also I have to admit North Korean and Chinese propoganda on social media is so less culturally informed than Russian, even the Russian spam bots do a better job.

Apr 29, 20 6:19 pm  · 
 · 
x-jla's comment has been hidden
x-jla

facts


Apr 29, 20 4:30 pm  · 
 · 
Bench

Something about extremes, can't remember where i saw it.

Apr 29, 20 8:08 pm  · 
 · 
x-jla

See above meme by sod. Democrats and Conservatives are exactly like Carol Baskin. Both acting like their shit don’t stink, doing same thing as Joe Exotic, but rebranding into something feel goody...hypocrites.

Apr 30, 20 1:58 pm  · 
 · 
sameolddoctor

jla-x, thank you for your drawing. I appreciate not having a ventilator stuck down my throat, which is what will happen is the "liberators" have their way with opening up the states too fast. Thanks again.

Apr 30, 20 2:01 pm  · 
 · 
x-jla

Hahahhahahhaha hidden....but meme about people of a certain political persuasion dying from covid not hidden. Typical...

Apr 30, 20 5:49 pm  · 
 · 
zg_a's comment has been hidden
zg_a

jla-x, shut up with your dumb political beliefs

Apr 30, 20 4:23 pm  · 
 · 
x-jla

No

Apr 30, 20 4:39 pm  · 
 · 
Chad Miller

Well you tried. Now what zg_a?

Apr 30, 20 4:40 pm  · 
 · 
zg_a

I tried. Has been annoying me for a while.

Apr 30, 20 4:43 pm  · 
 · 
Chad Miller

You just learn to ignore the comments - kind of like a Trump supporter. Then when you meet them IRL you beat the ever loving crap out of them.

Apr 30, 20 4:47 pm  · 
 · 
zg_a

Yep.

Apr 30, 20 4:54 pm  · 
 · 
x-jla

Back to topic.  I’m more worried about the entire architectural building types going extinct.  Shopping malls anyone?   Theaters?  What happens to firms that specialize in restaurants?  What do you do with out of business movie theaters?   Maybe over specialized firms are more vulnerable....what effects will this have on the academic movement towards density?  lots of shit to play out.  

Apr 30, 20 6:20 pm  · 
 · 
curtkram

i thought shopping malls already died. at least the big indoor ones. theaters don't seem all that strong on their own anymore. we're seeing bigger destination facilities that would be a movie theater, laser tag, bowling, etc.

Apr 30, 20 6:28 pm  · 
 · 
geezertect

One more nail in the coffin of the density movement. The cramped apartment/mass transit/megacity answer looks much less enticing, if it ever was.

Apr 30, 20 8:15 pm  · 
 · 
x-jla

Curt, not in my area. Malls are packed all year round. Geezer, agree. It’s a case for sub-urban.

Apr 30, 20 9:17 pm  · 
 · 
thisisnotmyname

I hope density is over, the micro apartment/no car/overpriced metro thing is a huge scam that attracted a surprising number of suckers. There's plenty of room in the USA for everybody to have a decent amount of living space.

Apr 30, 20 11:28 pm  · 
 · 
square.

i think the antiy-city movement is overblown. it's a little myopic- urban centers have suffered countless pandemics and tragedies, yet have always continued to exist in some form or another. take a lot at 1918; though it had a profound impact on nyc, it hardly destroyed it. just like generations that weren't affected by it had no awareness of how devastating it was, the same will happen with covid.if anything, the untenable rise of housing costs was having a bigger impact on cities, and much of that is up in the air with this recession/depression

May 1, 20 9:16 am  · 
 · 
x-jla

Big difference between 1918 and today. Back then cities were functionally necessary, today they exist because of lifestyle preference.

May 1, 20 11:20 am  · 
 · 
square.

today they exist because of lifestyle preference

more over-generalized nonsense. i thought you had learned something about nuance.

May 1, 20 11:22 am  · 
 · 
Chad Miller

Bullshit.

May 1, 20 11:22 am  · 
 · 

When jla-x learns something about nuance, I’ll move back to the rural, farm-laden countryside where I grew up (and hardly anyone farms anymore)

May 1, 20 11:40 am  · 
 · 
tduds

Convincing counterpoint to the "end of density" claim above: https://www.strongtowns.org/journal/2020/4/27/this-is-the-end-of-the-suburban-experiment

May 1, 20 11:59 am  · 
 · 
tduds

There's also, imo, a huge misconception that "Urbanism" = mid town Manhattan. The false binary that we must choose between 200sf microunits and cul-de-sac tract housing detracts from productive conversations about missing middle density, walkable villages, and regional transit networks. Whether this misconception is intentional or not I won't say.

May 1, 20 12:02 pm  · 
 · 
x-jla

Again, if we go back to the libertarianism thread where I schooled you people you will see that I taught you all the term nuance. Let’s stay on topic. Cities were built around industry. Cities didn’t evolve so that Sarah Jessica Parker could frolic around. Cities grew from a functional and economic need for density. Today, in the first world, “the city” is a commodity. Industry is out in the boonies. In 1918, the industries required a close proximity to shipping hubs, labor, etc. Any business type that exists in Manhattan can and does exist anywhere without any loss to their functionality.

May 1, 20 12:09 pm  · 
 · 

tduds, what we have to argue about if not for a false binary of the extremes?

May 1, 20 12:11 pm  · 
 · 
x-jla

It may be nice to be in Manhattan, but not functionally necessary. If we take nice away because of the coodies, cities take a big hit. Can you half wits think of a business that MUST be in Manhattan. Won’t accept “Manhattan tour bus” or
some smart ass bs like that.

May 1, 20 12:12 pm  · 
 · 
tduds

You have a point w.r.t. Manhattan. The problem is that it doesn't apply to the other 99.9% of the urban landscape and you're ignoring that while also harping on about nuance.

May 1, 20 12:15 pm  · 
 · 
x-jla

Case in point Amazon....NYC had to offer them bribes to locate there. They can operate just as easily from buttfuck Iowa. Just thought it would be nifty to be in NYC....but “nifty” is a weak weak thing. If urban density becomes associated with disease, danger, liability, etc...a flight from the cities will happen to some degree. Why? Because being in a city is a choice circa 2020 vs a necessity circa 1918.

May 1, 20 12:16 pm  · 
 · 
tduds

Taking this to the "pandemics & the city" thread.

May 1, 20 12:17 pm  · 
 · 
Chad Miller

My god you're foolish jla-x. You're arguing online. You're not going to change anyone's minds with your silly little comments. All you're doing is wasting your time in a vain attempt to boost your own ego. Your posts will accomplish nothing except earn you ire and disrespect of your peers.

May 1, 20 12:20 pm  · 
 · 
x-jla

And what your doing is better because?

May 1, 20 12:22 pm  · 
 · 
square.

being in a city as much of a choice as being in the suburbs, or rural areas. none of them are necessary based on your bizarre criteria. where one chooses to be is always... a choice.

May 1, 20 12:28 pm  · 
 · 
x-jla

Yes, but in 2020 most cities have a higher cost of living. This wasn’t always the case, but costs have increased as the “urban lifestyle” has been commodified, as crime has gone down, etc. gentrification is a direct result of people from elsewhere flocking to urban areas for lifestyle. Hipsters didn’t flock to cities to work in garment factories.

May 1, 20 12:45 pm  · 
 · 
x-jla

If you lose the “desire” to be in a city, then the rest falls apart pretty easily because unlike the past, where we had factories and shipping ports, and needed a close by workforce, companies are less dependent on geography, and workforce can live out in the burbs and commute.

May 1, 20 12:57 pm  · 
 · 
tduds

"If you lose the “desire” to be in a city.." 

I'm not convinced this will happen. Everything else you're saying is predicated on taking this fact at face value, but I'm simply not buying it.

May 1, 20 12:59 pm  · 
 · 
Chad Miller

jla-x - I'm trying to convince you of anything. I'm simply making fun of your stupidity.

May 1, 20 1:09 pm  · 
 ·  1
Non Sequitur

Jla's comments keep reminding me of new urbanism from the early 2000s where the end result was always an affluent gated community.

May 1, 20 1:12 pm  · 
 · 
x-jla

Depends on what you mean by “happen”. Obviously not everyone will leave the city, but I can bet that at least some will. To what degree is the question. There is a huge liability to remain in NYC right now. If a second wave comes, businesses will be hit with another economic KO punch. If I had a business there, I’d definitely be thinking about relocating to a state with less cases.

May 1, 20 1:12 pm  · 
 · 
x-jla

Imagine just making it through this shutdown....buried in debt....and then another wave comes and have to shutdown again? That’s devastating. NY density = fast spread as we see from antibody results in nyc vs LI vs upstate...

May 1, 20 1:15 pm  · 
 · 
tduds

I still don't know why you're pretending NYC is the only city.

May 1, 20 1:15 pm  · 
 · 
x-jla

Like we saw in the 70s and 80s with white flight from crime...I think we will see white flight from the pandemic. And I say “white” because most minorities won’t so easily relocate.

May 1, 20 1:20 pm  · 
 · 
x-jla

Tduds, I’m not.

May 1, 20 1:42 pm  · 
 · 
tduds

You've mentioned New York specifically in this reply chain five times, and zero other places. So, you kinda are.

May 1, 20 1:48 pm  · 
 · 
tduds
x-jla

I don’t disagree. We need sub-urban. I’ve been advocating for this since grad school. Most of the profession has been pushing this pro density agenda without really looking at the “nuance” of it all. Sub-urban can be different from suburban. This goes beyond pandemic fears...localization and decentralization of modern manufacturing...agriculture....etc. Been preaching this for a long time.

May 1, 20 2:54 pm  · 
1  · 
square.

thank god you've been advocating for this since grad school. seems like no one is listening though. i wish you had broader a platform instead of anonymously ranting in online forums.

May 1, 20 3:16 pm  · 
 · 
tduds

"Sub-urban can be different from suburban." I agree. It needs a new term, though, to avoid the obvious confusion.

May 1, 20 5:20 pm  · 
 · 
sidewinder's comment has been hidden
sidewinder

Hi all - 

Wanted to throw this survey into the thread in case anyone here hasn't seen it. We've collected about 275 responses so far. If you have a moment, please fill out this short survey about how your work has been impacted by the virus. 

ARCHITECTURE WORK UNDER COVID-19

This survey is open to all people in architecture and related fields: workers, students, teachers, writers — architects, planners, and landscape architects — anywhere in the world.

The purpose of the survey is to better understand how COVID-19 and its fallout are impacting the field and to initiate a wider, open conversation on the conditions of our work.

The survey is completely transparent — all the results are posted anonymously online (see second link below)

Link to survey:
https://tinyurl.com/yb2xwlcf


Link to anonymous results:
https://tinyurl.com/ycl3z87o

If you prefer to discuss your situation privately or discuss anything related to the survey before taking it, send us an email:
covid19@architecture-lobby.org

Organized by

T-H-E
A-R-C-H-I-T-E-C-T-U-R-E
L-O-B-B-Y

The Architecture Lobby, Inc. is an organization of architectural workers advocating for the value of architecture in the general public and for architectural work within the discipline.

May 1, 20 1:37 pm  · 
2  ·  1
molten

The amount of six-figure student loan debt in these responses is terrifying.

May 1, 20 3:41 pm  · 
3  · 

A midwest regional office I know of just laid off 20 people out of about 150. A small high design firm here in Indy laid off two people two weeks ago and one of them has gone to work already for a different small high design firm. So it's not all bad out there!

May 1, 20 1:55 pm  · 
 · 
thisisnotmyname

That's the blessing of being laid off early in a downturn. There are still a few job openings here and there where some people can land. A lot of architects were shorthanded pre-COVID and some are still willing to try and fill those positions now.

May 4, 20 1:27 pm  · 
 · 
zonker

a firm in SF has let go people who aren't able to WFW

May 1, 20 2:34 pm  · 
 · 
zg_a

Which firm?

May 1, 20 2:49 pm  · 
 · 
b3tadine[sutures]

WFW = Work From Work

May 3, 20 10:33 pm  · 
 · 
Non Sequitur

In unrelated to the usual fear-mongering and libertarian nonsense, our office has picked up a few large projects over the last 2 weeks.  It appears that many clients have decided that projects still need to proceed.

May 1, 20 4:29 pm  · 
 · 
Bench

Congrats!

May 1, 20 4:36 pm  · 
 · 
Non Sequitur

Thanks. I suspect low interest rates are contributing to this too.

May 1, 20 5:27 pm  · 
 · 
curtkram

how is that working? Do you still have a business development team working face to face with people, or are you inking deals virtually?

May 1, 20 7:11 pm  · 
 · 

word of mouth I'm sure. Based on NS posts, I doubt they market much or have to. Architecture (legit) is one of those things where Dude A tells Dude B use these guys and gals, they know. There is a lot to know.

May 1, 20 7:24 pm  · 
1  · 
Non Sequitur

Curt, I’m not involved in the Initial client meetings but some of the projects are restarts from previously proposals but others were done via zoom.

May 1, 20 7:26 pm  · 
 · 
Chad Miller

We just got the SD of two new highschools here in town.

May 4, 20 10:12 am  · 
 · 
revolutionary poet's comment has been hidden
revolutionary poet

So I've been thinking about this -

A communist country will get blamed for causing a pandemic (rightly so) that essentially allowed Capitalists to trim the fat at their architecture firms, get rid of everyone they don't like, and re-hire (have you seen, there are firms hiring in NYC, didn't something just happen in NYC?).

Then the Capitalist backed government will sanction and go after communist country, that already serves the lusty consumerists of the Capitalist countries as a sweat shop of assembling goods, Communism is a good working class government (see the Manifesto, quick read)   Most things are not really made in China, just assembled, anyway I digress...

So, Capitilism wins again and you're unemployed - the Lay-off Thread in a nutshell.

(I have to go back to work, I had NO  fat to trim, just fucking meat and I'm at a loss)

On a philosophical note, Capitalism is innate human nature, Karl Marx was just trying to solve it and be fair about it.

May 1, 20 7:32 pm  · 
1  ·  1

Stuff = Capital (simple George Carlin)


May 1, 20 7:43 pm  · 
2  · 
sameolddoctor

China is not a true example of a Communist nation. They are extremely capitalist, but disguise it as Communism, especially in recent times...

May 2, 20 11:16 pm  · 
1  · 
archi_dude

Two things there. Yes in capitalism companies can hire and fire based on needs. Secondly, you are free to choose where you work and not work at places that hire and fire like that. You have the freedom to not get a masters in (insert useless overpriced liberal arts) and do great. You also have the freedom to get a masters in (insert useless overpriced liberal arts) for 10's of thousands possibky hundreds of thousands if you liked an out of state school and then complain that the system is rigged against you.

May 3, 20 3:00 pm  · 
1  ·  3
x-jla

The no true Scotsman fallacy. China is a communist authoritarian regime. They also purposefully led covid spread I think. Hopefully once this is over the world cuts them off and they no longer can engage in capitalism...which will lead to their eventual collapse.

May 3, 20 9:34 pm  · 
2  · 
square.

archi_dude, yes, you have a choice in some regards as to where you work (you of course have to be hired, so freedom is a silly word as the condition of your work is dependent on many things), but the livelihood of a worker is dependent on the boss, and not the other way around, making it an uneven relationship. in other words, bosses have a lot of power and are the ones with real freedom to hire and fire at their discretion. seeing the work and boss as having equal amounts of "freedom" is at best an interpretation of the situation, not fact.

May 4, 20 9:25 am  · 
1  · 
archi_dude

Dang, it sounds really hard to go through life seeing yourself as a victim of circumstance
.

May 4, 20 10:22 am  · 
 · 
x-jla

Good thing in the US you can become a boss if you want, and then can organize your office however you think is fair. You can hire people and pay them 2x as much as you make, you can give them the big office and work out of a Storage closet....when you work for someone else, you sign a contract to do something for a fee. There is an exchange of work for pay made between 2 consenting adults. If you don’t like that arrangement, you are free to leave and go somewhere better. By saying that you have no “freedom” you are essentially saying that you don’t have the capacity to enter into an agreement.

May 4, 20 11:45 am  · 
 · 
square.

the freedom you talk about is defined within a pretty narrow scope. having a limited set of choices doesn't make you "free;" at the very least it's an extremely conditioned freedom. take a look at architecture graduates this year.. they will be entering a very difficult labor market in which bosses have a huge upper hand, most of which are laying off employees right now, able to higher depressed labor down the road. think those students are free? not to mention most of the country's workers aren't so lucky; try telling someone in retail or food service to leverage their freedom by negotiating the terms of their "contract"- they'll be fired (e.g. amazon). assuming working class people just need more willpower so they can taste the freedom goes to show how out of touch you are.

May 4, 20 12:01 pm  · 
 · 
x-jla

Freedom doesn’t mean that you get a 100% perfect field...that sense of entitlement is odd. The world doesn’t owe you anything except for your liberty. Freedom means that you have the ability to freely navigate through the field that happens to be there, hopefully making it a little better for those who follow.

May 4, 20 12:16 pm  · 
1  · 
x-jla

You are confusing ones freedom of movement with unlimited access to ones goals. Access is always going to be limited to some degree depending on circumstances, internal and external, personal and societal. The well intentioned socialists want to create equality by controlling access. The well intentioned libertarians want to create prosperity by removing government imposed limits on movement and access. Many reasons why the socialists are wrong. For one, they fail to recognize that some people want to access more than others. Suppressing that then requires limiting access which requires coercion/punishment via govt...

May 4, 20 12:38 pm  · 
 · 
labocce

just to clarify, i worked 30% extra hours in the last 6 weeks of wfh. got laid off the day after my 100% DD deadline. my insurance was canceled at the end of the month--3 days later. i got two weeks of severance pay. i graduated in 2008 and went through the recession. i am 41 and i have asthma. my 4 year old daughter has asthma. do you think this is a good situation? should we "open up" so, old diseased people die? no one else will get the virus? is this a reasonable response to the situation? should we layoff staff and provide no insurance?

(i have a masters...and i know revit)

May 3, 20 7:41 pm  · 
1  · 
archi_dude's comment has been hidden
archi_dude

You got laid off because we haven't opened up and theres too much uncertainty for business. Why would you pursue a new retail, restaurant, office, civic, residential establishment with only vague guidelines suggesting rolling lockdowns for the next 2 years. Either no customers, collapsed rental market and tax revenue is what all of these projects are potentially looking at in their timelines. Your post is essentially saying you should be allowed to be fully paid but stall the economy. No society in history has pulled that off.

May 3, 20 10:45 pm  · 
1  ·  1
Susz

Is an extension with your insurance policy not feasible? Depending on where you live, you may have that option to extend it or at least be able to get that rate (sometimes cheaper than an individual rate). There are other obligations/hoop-jumping that may be necessary (work history with the company over 3 months, e.g.) but it is my understanding that if you are laid off you are entitled to certain accommodations through federal / state law for health insurance extension.

May 3, 20 10:51 pm  · 
 · 
sameolddoctor's comment has been hidden
sameolddoctor

archi_dude, did you even read the question?i.e. did it get through your thick skull? Lobocce mentioned that he and his daughter have asthma - do you advocate for everyone to open up and put their life in danger?

May 3, 20 10:54 pm  · 
2  ·  1
archi_dude's comment has been hidden
archi_dude

Yeah, what about yours? Shutdown economy = people lose jobs / supply chains break down with much bigger implications. Not sure why anyone is surprised of these end results...

May 3, 20 11:00 pm  · 
1  ·  1
sameolddoctor's comment has been hidden
sameolddoctor

So you do not care about the poster's or her/his daughter's asthma, right? Great, you exemplify all your Republiciturds.

May 3, 20 11:09 pm  · 
1  ·  1
archi_dude's comment has been hidden
archi_dude

Oh I do. And I'm a cancer survivor FYI which puts me right in there. I also work on a jobsite face to face no WFH. We're doing everything we can to stop spread on-site while keeping the economy moving. I just dont subscribe to a fantasy you can print paychecks for everyone while ending industry and not expect a fallout.

May 3, 20 11:31 pm  · 
1  ·  1
archi_dude's comment has been hidden
archi_dude

*I'm not out of my 5 years, dang probably just jinxed that :-/

May 3, 20 11:33 pm  · 
1  ·  1
OneLostArchitect's comment has been hidden
OneLostArchitect

Thank god my home boy Trudeau got me covered for $2,000 a month!

May 3, 20 11:37 pm  · 
1  · 
square.'s comment has been hidden
square.

archi_dude, heard of the new deal? it saved this country from depression and created generations of prosperity. so yes, the only way out of this is through massive government intervention. the virus might have sped up this recession/depression, but it was inevitable as too many people were working extremely precarious jobs and barely living pay check to pay check

May 4, 20 9:28 am  · 
1  ·  1
archi_dude's comment has been hidden
archi_dude

Um that was WWII. Lol

May 4, 20 9:41 am  · 
1  · 
square.'s comment has been hidden
square.

"lol," no, the post war boom never could have happened without the framework the new deal established (though it is an interesting point, the war also required new massive government intervention). there was a time when the new deal was universally praised as a great achievement for america.. unfortunately you've been brainwashed by neoliberlism into denying the reality of history. you'll be convinced though by round 2 which is inevitable, cuz the market ain't getting us out of this mess it made.

May 4, 20 9:55 am  · 
1  ·  1
archi_dude's comment has been hidden
archi_dude

So you are saying all major history sources are wrong and the market decided to shut itself down, create giant losses and implode. Okayyyyyy sounding like those anti-Vaccers at the protests right about now.

May 4, 20 10:02 am  · 
1  · 
square.'s comment has been hidden
square.

it's funny that you pretend to read "major history sources"

May 4, 20 10:32 am  · 
1  ·  1
x-jla's comment has been hidden
x-jla

archi_dude, they desperately want this pandemic to collapse the markets and usher in socialism. They couldn’t do it Through “democracy” with crazy Bernie. Now they ended up with an 80yo who has half a dozen sexual assaults against him...believe women! “Keep the economy shut you evil republicans...you want asthmatics to die!” (SOD says something to that effect above) “Nuance! More Nuance!

May 4, 20 11:36 am  · 
1  ·  1
Chad Miller's comment has been hidden
Chad Miller

You're a moron.

May 4, 20 11:39 am  · 
2  ·  1
x-jla's comment has been hidden
x-jla

Sleepy creepy Joe! More proof that the whole me too thing was a political weapon to herd the dummies into their voting corrals.

May 4, 20 11:56 am  · 
 · 
Chad Miller's comment has been hidden
Chad Miller

No one is trying to impose socialism by running the economy. That makes no sense. In a socialist government all the means of production, business, and goods are are owned by the government. It would make no sense for a government to ruin it's own economy to then take it over.

May 4, 20 11:56 am  · 
 · 
x-jla's comment has been hidden
x-jla

But I get it....you as well as many others want to be on the good guy team...you want a moral quest....what you just don’t realize is that there is no good team...just different brands of bullshit...”everybody wants to rule the world...da da da da da...”

May 4, 20 12:00 pm  · 
 · 
x-jla's comment has been hidden
x-jla

Chad, I don’t think it’s a well planned conspiracy, just a bunch of opportunists looking to grab power. As for the masses of civilians, there is a sort of angst that wants revolution for the sake of revolution. They are very good at pointing out problems in society, often rightfully so, but very bad at solutions...and completely short sighted and naive to the inevitable authoritarian creep of governments. They see this pandemic as a disruptive thing that will usher in change. We’ve heard it over and over....”we will never go back to normal “. Etc etc. again, more of an emotional angsty, wide eyed thing than some mastermind conspiracy.

May 4, 20 12:09 pm  · 
1  · 
Chad Miller's comment has been hidden
Chad Miller

You realize the degree of planning and cooperation that would be required between governments and powerful individuals that have mutually exclusive agendas and ideals that would be required for this to happen? It's ridiculous that you actually believe this paranoid BS. How the hell are you a functioning member of society, let alone a practicing architect with this level of fear and paranoia?

May 4, 20 2:44 pm  · 
1  · 
x-jla's comment has been hidden
x-jla

Did you read what I wrote? You are paranoid man.

May 4, 20 3:14 pm  · 
 · 
x-jla's comment has been hidden
x-jla

Lmfao. How are you a practicing architect, let alone a member of society with such bad reading comprehension skills? Stfu,

May 4, 20 3:38 pm  · 
 · 
x-jla's comment has been hidden
x-jla

Lmfao. How are you a practicing architect, let alone a member of society with such bad reading comprehension skills? Stfu,

May 4, 20 3:38 pm  · 
 · 
x-jla's comment has been hidden
x-jla

You try to distill everything into a crazy right winger trope to more easily contend with rather than the actual nuanced statement that I made. You lack nuance man! Get nuance bro!

May 4, 20 3:40 pm  · 
 · 
Chad Miller's comment has been hidden
Chad Miller

Keep trying.

May 4, 20 4:21 pm  · 
 · 
SneakyPete's comment has been hidden
SneakyPete

Can we trade Jawknee for jla-xlax?

May 4, 20 5:46 pm  · 
3  · 
Chad Miller's comment has been hidden
Chad Miller

Sure! At least Jawknee isn't taking itself seriously.

May 4, 20 5:55 pm  · 
4  · 
x-jla's comment has been hidden
x-jla

Chad and Sneaky Pete, the two dumbest people on here. I’m yet to here a nuanced counterpoint from either one of you soy boys.

May 4, 20 9:39 pm  · 
2  ·  3
Chad Miller's comment has been hidden
Chad Miller

Try harder. . .

May 5, 20 9:54 am  · 
 · 
labocce's comment has been hidden
labocce

I am very glad you survived cancer. My mom died of cancer when was twenty. She did not get to see any of her grandchildren, me finish school, or congratulate me on my licensure. I am just trying to ask if everyone thinks this situation is so simple or so black an white? I don't want to be laid off or die. While the callousness of the corporation I worked for (P&W) does not completely surprise me, I wonder why this industry cannot weather the slightest bump in the road? Less than 10% of projects/revenues were on hold. What does this say about the industry of architecture? What it says to me is that the industry has not changed or matured. The only real architects are still independently wealthy. Architects are not poor business people, it is a poor business.


(yes, i can sign up for cobra and continue my insurance for $561 per month with a $2000 deductible, plus 20% copay through $5000 of billings. does that sound cheap?)

May 4, 20 12:03 am  · 
1  · 
sameolddoctor

As you point out, a lot of firms in our (crappy) industry are trying to use this excuse to lay off people

May 4, 20 2:29 pm  · 
1  · 
thisisnotmyname

Absolutely. Many firm owners would and do cut staff instead of reducing partner salaries and bonuses. My old bosses cut 15% of the staff one Friday and the following Monday one of them rolls up in a big brand new Audi and the other is talking about how he spent the weekend shopping for a new boat.

May 4, 20 3:21 pm  · 
1  · 

Times were tough I'm sure. Think of how much bigger the boat could have been...

May 4, 20 3:23 pm  · 
1  · 
Chad Miller

I have to agree Rick - what a bunch of assholes. Even if the partners described above had saved up a bunch of money and had the cash to buy the car and boat don't be a dick and flaunt it when others are taking a pay cut. That's a great way for people to jump ship as soon as things recover.

May 4, 20 6:58 pm  · 
 · 
run500

Chanced upon this thread. And its a good read!

We are having retrenchment on our side under F&B.

May 5, 20 5:19 am  · 
 · 
archi_dude's comment has been hidden
archi_dude

In an article about anti-body testing


"....unfortunately that's where the science has us right now. We just dont know and it's much better to say that than to try and make predictions without having the data there becuase that can be detrimental." 


But when it comes to lockdowns collapsing the economy based on models built with assumptions, go right ahead, assume away apparently.


https://www.google.com/amp/s/m...

May 8, 20 9:46 am  · 
 · 
Non Sequitur

Correct. You finally understand the value of prevention.

May 8, 20 9:49 am  · 
1  · 
archi_dude

1,102 cases on USS Theodore Roosevelt - 1 death 0.09% death rate far below the flu. Diamond princess - 1.3% (older population) Likelihood of dying in car crash 1/103, 0.9% This is the equivalent of chopping off your arm for darker looking freckle. So should we prevent car crashes by outlawing driving? Same risk factor Non.

May 8, 20 10:10 am  · 
 · 

First your point is we don’t know, now it’s we know enough to compare it to other risks in order to create straw men?

May 8, 20 10:13 am  · 
1  · 
archi_dude

Merely pointing out the irony of warnings that we dont have enough info regarding any science that points to this not being as serious as warranting a full lockdown. Whereas every scientific assumption that says this is the plague is held as infallible. That's not science that's religion. So as we are looking down the barrel of another great depression and social breakdown. Is this really a rational prevention strategy?

May 8, 20 10:27 am  · 
 · 
Non Sequitur

yawn, not this dead horse again.

May 8, 20 10:30 am  · 
1  · 

archi_dude - I see your point. However I believe that in the field of infectious disease and virology the science points to the effectiveness and requirement of 'lock down' and 'isolation' as a means of stopping the spread of a contagion. It's a well proven an accepted method of dealing with an unknown fast spreading disease. Step one is stop the spread of the disease. Step two is find a cure.

May 8, 20 10:31 am  · 
1  · 
Non Sequitur

but Chad, what about step 1.5: return everything to normal based on selective internet research?

May 8, 20 10:34 am  · 
 · 
archi_dude

But shouldn't the effectiveness of the lockdown and long term consequences be weighed? Right now it would seem the lockdowns are quite ineffective and the long term consequences are extraordinary while the risk itself is minor. Wouldnt that warrant switching to a more surgical lockdown and prevention method? Newsom himself has admitted the disease was in CA since Decemeber, thats 3.5 months with no lockdown, no one noticed anything strange and hospitals are still right now empty. This is not the Spanish flu crisis in any way.

May 8, 20 10:40 am  · 
 · 
Non Sequitur

Lockdown is very effective here. Join the Michigan idiots if you have compelling evidence to the contrary of the overwhelming scientific position.

May 8, 20 10:43 am  · 
 · 
archi_dude

I do. Decreases in new cases began 3/29, 2 weeks is accepted lead time until new cases are found. Lockdowns started on 3/20 and after. So essentially we didnt need to burn our rights and destroy our livelihoods to flatten the curve. Yes it would seem the Sweden model has a higher risk right now with a few thousand extra deaths and the overwhelming scientific opinion is based on saving every single life. But if you could summon the mental capacity to think of the consequences of 18-24 months down the road on this path like the "experts" are asking. It doesnt take much to realize we need to demand a better solution. Anyway
your enjoy your religion Non.

May 8, 20 10:54 am  · 
 · 
Non Sequitur

It's not religion, it's unbiased and reasonable thinking. Feel free to be the first to nominate a few of your loved-ones to be put in harm's way. The rest of us understand the situation without the need to draw quick conclusions.

May 8, 20 10:56 am  · 
 · 

archi-due - Actually lock downs are proving to be highly effective at reducing the transmission rate (Rt). When dealing with a highly infectious disease you have to prioritize things. Do you want to limit the amount of death? Do you want the economy to recover faster? Do you want to get a haircut?

May 8, 20 11:16 am  · 
 · 

archi_dude, where do you live? I've found that in talking with my friends and family about the stay-at-home measures their reaction either positive or negative is pretty closely correlated with whether they live in an urban or rural area.

May 8, 20 11:31 am  · 
 · 
archi_dude

I'm not disagreeing with the lockdowns working just saying we didnt need them to avoid overwhelming hospitals. And when ALL decisions rest with a community who, while very noble indeed, wants to save EVERY life and it's not tempered with the reality of that impact I question it. Because ultimately I dont know many countries with collapsed economies, researching,
manufscturing and distributing highly complex vaccines for their entire population.

May 8, 20 11:31 am  · 
 · 
Non Sequitur

so, who's lives are you recommending we terminate first so that you can go out and have a pint at the pub with your buddies?

May 8, 20 11:35 am  · 
 · 
archi_dude

Economy, famine, social unrest Non, your lack of ability to grasp those consequences explains your support for the current response.

May 8, 20 11:42 am  · 
 ·  1
Non Sequitur

Not true, I understand it very well. You would not be this fucked had you opted for more socially-progressive government. Your level of desperation is fortunately very limited. The rest of us able to see beyond our own personal bubble will be fine.

May 8, 20 11:51 am  · 
 · 

I have to agree with Non on this one archi. Our government flubbed this COVID response thing up in a spectacular fashion. The lack of leadership, the constant distrust and contradiction of science and health experts, the failed financial bailout, the hard core partisanship, and the blatant dis-concern about the poor and lower middle class. We screwed ourselves on this one by electing our current president. Other countries aren't having these issues - it's just us.

May 8, 20 11:57 am  · 
2  · 
SneakyPete

The same motherfuckers who whine about untrained designers and homeowners not hiring Architects sit around here second guessing scientists. There's some fucking irony for you, archi_dude.

May 8, 20 12:28 pm  · 
 · 
midlander

lockdowns are the plan C option after more effective and less intrusive steps weren't taken. it's one of those situations where potential risks and serious warnings are ignored until panic is the only reasonable reaction. fyi there are plenty of studies in the relative risks. it's not negligible at all.

May 8, 20 12:47 pm  · 
 · 
midlander

unless you're under 35ish.

May 8, 20 12:48 pm  · 
 · 
Bench's comment has been hidden
Bench

"I'm not disagreeing with the lockdowns working just saying we didnt need them to avoid overwhelming hospitals."

Just .... wow.

May 8, 20 12:34 pm  · 
2  · 
Non Sequitur

Welcome to the party.

May 8, 20 12:38 pm  · 
 · 
Bench

My brain is exploding. Come check out NYC and then tell me about not needing shutdowns to overwhelm hospitals. Fucking unbelievable.

May 8, 20 12:49 pm  · 
1  · 
archi_dude

If you can read, you'll see that was about California and more car centric states. A metro area that has high concentrations of populations and high usage of public transit. Yeah you should definitely take higher precautions. Plus keep in mind your mayor was telling everyone to gather in groups pretty much a week before. Theres difference between lockdowns and social distancing and washing hands.

May 8, 20 1:37 pm  · 
 · 
SneakyPete

A patronizing tone is definitely the best tactic for changing minds. If you make 'em feel stupid, they'll agree with you! Keep up the good work!

May 8, 20 1:46 pm  · 
 · 
zonker's comment has been hidden
zonker

social distancing and masks, yes, closing businesses including architecture firms, no. Too many get laid off, can't get jobs, then quit the profession. This happened in 08'-09', when 70% quit for good - I toughed it out and forced the issue.

May 8, 20 12:49 pm  · 
 · 
Non Sequitur

we're not shut-down... we're actually busy and picking up new projects.

May 8, 20 12:51 pm  · 
1  · 
tintt

I turned down three new projects this week, good ones too, cause I can't take more on.

May 8, 20 1:03 pm  · 
1  · 

I know of 10 or so projects our firm has won since mid-March when we've been 100% WFH for all locations. There could be more that haven't crossed my inbox too. We are definitely not closed.

May 8, 20 1:51 pm  · 
1  · 

We picked up two large education projects and three mid sized retail ones. We also have another school RFP that we'll probably get and a few mid sized government project. We may be looking to hire a project manager due to the new work.

May 8, 20 1:51 pm  · 
2  · 
archanonymous

Hey Chad if you don't mind, PM me once that develops more. I am really considering returning to my home state.

May 8, 20 2:08 pm  · 
 · 
archanonymous

tintt, you are primarily residential, right? Not at all surprised people are re-thinking their dwellings right now.

May 8, 20 2:08 pm  · 
 · 
archanonymous

A bit more surprised at the schools and commercial projects continuing right now... We just got hired for a study on a couple office buildings. Seems dumb.

May 8, 20 2:09 pm  · 
 · 
tintt

I'm some of each. All the new leads this week are residential and only one is semi-local. One across the state and one on the west coast.

May 8, 20 2:31 pm  · 
 · 
tintt

Biggest problem is I don't have a quiet place to work. I work from home and it works great but now school is canceled and my husband is working from home too. There are three new houses being built across the street so there is all kinds of yelling and banging and trucks coming and going and people. Kids can't go to the playground. Sorry I'm ranting. This is ridiculous. All to protect the delicate egos of the politicians.

May 8, 20 2:52 pm  · 
 · 
tintt

Upset that the internet keeps crapping out on me too. Thinking to switching to working all night and sleeping all day. All the emails come in the middle of the night anways.

May 8, 20 2:55 pm  · 
1  · 
archi_dude's comment has been hidden
archi_dude

Seems SoCal gave up. Drove to the jobsite for the afternoon shift and retail is definitely open, cars are circling my place for parking, theres Friday traffic on the freeways and surf boards in the back of most trucks. I guess you dont go full facist lockdown and then end up laying off nurses becuase hospitals are so empty and expect people to still take things seriously. Bummer becuase now we probably will get a surge if everyone is this nonchalant. 

May 8, 20 5:03 pm  · 
 · 
sameolddoctor

Shut your ramblings, dude. You were one of the ones advocating for opening up shit, and now you are the one complaining. lol.

May 8, 20 5:41 pm  · 
 · 
archi_dude

Nah have always been for an intelligent balanced approach. Anyway looks like we are there at least in SoCal.

May 8, 20 6:08 pm  · 
 · 
SneakyPete

do you ever use both sides of your mouth to speak at the SAME TIME?

May 8, 20 6:21 pm  · 
1  · 

If you can do that, both sides of your mouth, you can run for office! Pretty sure I saw a dude either dead or nearly dead today in the city and many ambulances...have some essential jobs in the city hit hardest....but was good to see the junkies and homeless guys without masks just yelling and screaming, always comforting.

May 8, 20 7:08 pm  · 
 · 
x-jla

I’m going to practice social distancing permanently. It’s relaxing.

May 8, 20 9:55 pm  · 
1  · 
x-jla

Nope.

May 9, 20 11:42 am  · 
 · 

It's just hoping that no one will notice and will treat it differently. That or it's just a not very creative or intelligent person trying to troll a bit. Actually both could be correct.

May 11, 20 2:39 pm  · 
 · 
SneakyPete

According to my ignore settings, which follow you around when the name listed is altered, it's the same fool.

May 11, 20 2:51 pm  · 
 · 
x-jla

I’m a condensed version. 2 sentence KOs only.

May 11, 20 3:17 pm  · 
 · 

Your fat ass hasn't knocked anyone out in any sense every.

May 12, 20 11:09 am  · 
 · 
x-jla

The soy is making you emotionally unstable.

May 12, 20 1:21 pm  · 
 · 
Tex_arch

I’m a registered architect who started her career in 1985, 35 years ago. I’ve ridden out at least five major downturns in the economy. I’ve worked at big firms and small ones and am finally self-employed. Architecture firms hire when times are good and they lay off when they don’t have enough work. It’s always been that way and there’s nothing special or unique about your firm. Unemployment is especially tough on young architects and I pray that this current crisis passes as quickly as possible for you guys.

May 11, 20 2:01 pm  · 
4  · 
getty218

I second that. For a long time I was the last hired first fired. I survived the first round of cuts this time, but I'm not optimistic about the future.

May 11, 20 9:50 pm  · 
 · 
zonker's comment has been hidden
zonker

I remember 08' and 09' - there will be no bounce as Trump says there will be - this will be a long slog before it it ever gets back to the level things were at in January. 

May 11, 20 5:05 pm  · 
2  ·  2
drums please, Fab?

but this is Trump not Obama

May 11, 20 11:58 pm  · 
 ·  1
tduds

So it'll be worse.

May 12, 20 12:39 pm  · 
 · 
x-jla

Obama was better at looking and sounding good. He was better than trump on many things, strengthening the economy wasn’t one.

May 12, 20 1:16 pm  · 
 · 

Try harder.

May 12, 20 1:20 pm  · 
 · 
tduds

The economy under Obama steadily and somewhat sustainably grew. The economy under Trump, until 2020, was about juicing growth at all costs, creating a wildly fragile status quo, & hoping the bubble would hold until after the election. It didn't.

May 12, 20 1:52 pm  · 
 · 
x-jla

I disagree. Obama further globalized the economy, specifically with China, which made us vulnerable to scenarios like this.

May 12, 20 3:24 pm  · 
 · 
curtkram

pretty sure Obama had CDC staff in Beijing that was cut during the Trump administration

May 12, 20 3:37 pm  · 
 · 
tduds

Obama's entire two-term global strategy (the "Pivot to Asia") anticipated China's rising power in the region as a future challenge to American global policy and, had it not been killed by cynical partisan obstruction - I believe - would have emerged over the coming years / decades as the defining policy doctrine of the 21st century. 

The TPP, for one example, was deliberately indented to reduce China's hemispheric influence. But a bunch of jingoistic ideologues who think the US can just snap their fingers and reclaim manufacturing supremacy torpedoed it. 

Anyway, none of this has to do with COVID so I'll leave it at that, but with some due respect you're entitled to your opinion but it would seem you're out of your depth on the history here.

May 12, 20 5:31 pm  · 
1  · 
tduds

Trade with China did not make us vulnerable to pandemic. The slow dismantling of the instruments of pandemic response starting in 2017 made us vulnerable to a pandemic, and the absolute abdication of federal responsibility in the face of the pandemic has created an entirely avoidable crisis. Not only was all of this predictable - it was predicted. If you actually care I can come back with plenty of examples.

May 12, 20 5:37 pm  · 
1  · 
x-jla

Yes it did. It made us technically vulnerable in regards to drug production and medical equipment, but more importantly it made the world less vigilant towards a dangerous communist authoritarian regime.

May 12, 20 6:45 pm  · 
 · 
x-jla

the WHO acting as a parrot for the CCP is directly related to the economic position of China that we helped put them in.

May 12, 20 6:47 pm  · 
 · 
archi_dude's comment has been hidden
archi_dude

2nd waves and reimposed lockdowns in contact tracing/testing stars, Germany, South Korea, China, Signapore. Meanwhile, Sweden sustainably soldiers on with social distancing guidelines. 

May 12, 20 9:38 am  · 
 · 
square.

if you actually followed the news you would see that sweden are reconsidering their guidelines because of the obscenely high death rate among the elderly.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-05-12/covid-infection-rate-drops-in-denmark-after-lockdown-relaxed

May 12, 20 9:58 am  · 
 · 
archi_dude

Additionally resources for the elderly is not reconsidering their guidelines.

May 12, 20 10:08 am  · 
 · 
archi_dude

*Additional

May 12, 20 10:08 am  · 
 · 
square.

Sweden will adjust a key corner of its strategy for dealing with Covid-19, after the death rate at care homes spiraled out of control.


it's literally in the title of the article and the first sentence. very simple line of reasoning: this adjustment is necessary because their initial strategy has created an overwhelming burden on elderly populations (also note the total death rate is 32/100000 compared to US at 24). you might not care, but others do, hence the necessary readjustment. denmark's strategy is appearing more reasonable now.

May 12, 20 10:31 am  · 
 · 
SneakyPete

"My one example proves everything." -Scientists

May 12, 20 12:43 pm  · 
 · 
x-jla

The Swedish are taking a more scientific approach. The rest of the world is taking an emotional and political approach.

May 12, 20 1:11 pm  · 
 · 
x-jla

They understand that flattening the curve just extends the crisis into the future. They will eventually reach herd immunity faster than the rest of the world, and the numbers will equal out then.

May 12, 20 1:13 pm  · 
 · 

Try harder.

May 12, 20 1:14 pm  · 
 · 
x-jla

Are you going to follow me around like a salty x girlfriend?

May 12, 20 1:41 pm  · 
2  · 

Nope. You're all over the forms like a needy child wanting attention. Typing 'try harder' is easier, and faster than saying your an idiot and explaining why.

May 12, 20 3:16 pm  · 
1  · 
drums please, Fab?

hey!

May 12, 20 3:24 pm  · 
2  · 

I stand by my statements regarding jla-x / x-jla. If he/she wants to be a troll then he/she needs to be accountable for their posts and the flack they generate. I will concede though and simply ignore her/his troll posts from now on.

May 12, 20 4:16 pm  · 
1  · 
randomised

Problem with Sweden is, the staff in nursing/elderly homes doesn't or didn't wear face masks or had access to hand sanitiser , so all the asymptomatic nurses and other staff brought covid into those places. That still does not necessarily mean the Swedes should've locked down like the rest of 'em...it just puts their numbers in perspective.

May 12, 20 4:57 pm  · 
 · 
drums please, Fab?

i just kidding! but seriously, what if he/she is non-binary? we don't all fit in your tidy little boxes you know!

May 12, 20 4:58 pm  · 
1  · 

It's also important to note that a large percentage of Sweden's population lives in a single person household / dwelling.

May 12, 20 4:58 pm  · 
 · 
x-jla

It’s also important to note that the nursing homes should and could be treated way differently than the general public. As more and more antibody study results trickle in it is becoming obvious that this poses little danger to most healthy people as the overall cfr lingers around 0.3.

May 12, 20 5:02 pm  · 
 · 

I don't know what info you're referring to, everything I've seen has stated that antibodies are not proven to protect you from future infection. Do you have a link?

May 12, 20 5:05 pm  · 
 · 
x-jla

Antibodies indicate infection. The True number of people infected is far greater than the official recorded numbers suggest, and therefore it’s equally less deadly.

May 12, 20 5:09 pm  · 
 · 
x-jla

If one person dies from disease x, and only that one person was confirmed to have disease x, the cfr is 100% which is very scary. Upon further research if we find that 100 people have been infected with and recovered from disease x the cfr is 1%.

May 12, 20 5:11 pm  · 
 · 
x-jla

Our lives are governed by risk assessment. Many decisions we have made were based on heavily biased data towards the sickest people and those privy to limited availability of tests.

May 12, 20 5:12 pm  · 
 · 

None of those responses are related to my question about where you are getting information stating that antibodies from the COVID 19 virus makes you immune to future infection. You can have antibodies for a virus and still become re-infected - it happens all the time. Please provide a source that supports your previous comment.  

May 12, 20 5:18 pm  · 
 · 
x-jla

Plenty of sources.

May 12, 20 5:54 pm  · 
 · 
x-jla

That’s a different topic from the antibody studies. A low cfr means a low risk for otherwise healthy people, which means that we should protect the vulnerable without destroying the entire economy and creating other problems for the rest of the population

May 12, 20 5:57 pm  · 
 · 

From the article you linked:

"This question is important for understanding who can safely go back to work, as well as for understanding how long the worst impacts of the pandemic are likely to last. Because the virus is so new, the answer isn't fully understood. But so far, scientists say, it looks like SARS-CoV-2 probably induces immunity like other coronaviruses. That means that the human body will probably retain a memory of the virus for at least a few years and should be protected from reinfection, at least in the short-term."

May 12, 20 5:57 pm  · 
 · 
x-jla

Zero risk is impossible, 500,000 Americans die every year from heart disease, 30,000 from car crashes, we make decisions based on risk. The cfr is our metric for assessing risk right now, and as our understanding changes our actions ought to adjust to reality, not media frenzy.

May 12, 20 6:03 pm  · 
 · 

Not related to your comment about antibodies. Keep on track or GTFO.


Oh and also from the article you linked:

"Per our findings, we can only confirm that COVID-19 patients can maintain the adaptive immunity to SARS-CoV-2 for 2 weeks post-discharge"


So from the article you linked as proof of immunity after infection the current research says that they can't be certain immunity exists to future infection and when it dose happen it's only for two weeks.


Still want to claim that you're immune to COVID-19 after being infected?

May 12, 20 6:04 pm  · 
 · 
x-jla

You are just too slow to understand I guess. I’m not going to teach you basic biology and math.

May 12, 20 6:09 pm  · 
 · 
x-jla

If donut makes 1:1 people die Chad won't eat donut, if donut makes 1:10000 people die, Chad will eat donuts!

May 12, 20 6:12 pm  · 
 · 

Again, this isn't about the death rate. You stated that there was immunity for those previously infected. You linked an article to back up your claim. The article you linked dose not back up your claim.


Now if you'd like to take on the calculated death rate of COVID-19 then by all means. Please link source that supports your claim that the death rate and long term effects from COVID-19 are insignificant enough to validate stopping all precautions.  

May 12, 20 6:14 pm  · 
 · 
x-jla

Those supporting the shutdown bear the burden to prove it is necessary.

May 12, 20 6:28 pm  · 
 · 

No. It is proven that COVID-19 spreads fast and has a high death rate in addition of various long term respiratory complications.

Someone who refutes the scientific data about COVID-19 has the burden to prove that the previous data is incorrect and that there statements are in fact correct.

As I said before, prove a data source that supports your claim that the death rate and long term effects from COVID-19 are insignificant enough to validate stopping all precautions. 

May 12, 20 6:30 pm  · 
1  · 
x-jla

At first it seemed so, now that multiple studies have come out from multiple states and countries showing an infection rate that far exceeds official numbers it’s becoming apparent that a total shutdown isn’t in our best interest. We can protect the vulnerable who suffer a high cfr without destroying the lives of the healthy. If antibodies don’t protect us do you suggest we stay closed forever? Because guess what, in that case vaccines probably wouldn’t work either.

May 12, 20 6:35 pm  · 
 · 
x-jla

Damn, broke my 2 sentence rule!

May 12, 20 6:36 pm  · 
 · 

Provide a source for your claims.

May 12, 20 6:38 pm  · 
 · 
x-jla

You first

May 12, 20 6:39 pm  · 
 · 
x-jla

Look up antibody study results and your find plenty of literature.

May 12, 20 6:41 pm  · 
 · 

If you're not able to provide sources for your claims that directly contradict all available data currently available then I don't see a point in giving you the benefit of discussing this with you any further. It's rather clear that you don't take this topic or discussion seriously and simply want to be a troll. Good luck with that and try harder next time.

May 12, 20 6:49 pm  · 
 · 
x-jla

Sounds like you are trolling.

May 12, 20 7:44 pm  · 
 · 
x-jla

It’s not my claims, It’s common knowledge for people paying attention to the recent scientific findings. I’m not responsible for catching you up to speed, pay better attention.

May 12, 20 7:54 pm  · 
 · 
x-jla

This is one of many many recent studies. 2% of 4 million in the population. Magnitudes higher than the official numbers.

May 12, 20 8:06 pm  · 
 · 
b3tadine[sutures]

.


May 12, 20 9:50 pm  · 
 · 
x-jla

B3, that’s actually the opposite.

May 12, 20 9:53 pm  · 
1  · 
x-jla

Just used donuts because it’s something Chad would relate to.

May 12, 20 9:55 pm  · 
 · 
b3tadine[sutures]

It sounded familiar, that's why I took it down; brain lag. But I still disagree with you. The above is from my scientist friend, working on his PhD.

May 12, 20 9:55 pm  · 
 · 
b3tadine[sutures]

I'm going to ask him to look at this statement, from a few weeks ago, and analyze.

May 12, 20 9:58 pm  · 
1  · 
x-jla

Please let me know an acceptable cfr for us to be allowed to come out of our houses?

May 12, 20 10:04 pm  · 
 · 
tduds's comment has been hidden
tduds

How many times is x going to drag this thread into silly political bickering and then chide us to "get back on topic"?

I see like 4 or 5 times already, plus a few reply chains that have stayed off topic.

May 12, 20 5:34 pm  · 
1  · 

That or it will complain that we're not being 'nuanced enough' to have a discussion. It's just how it attempts to be a witty troll, not realizing that we're all onto it.

May 12, 20 5:49 pm  · 
 · 
x-jla

Where?

May 12, 20 5:52 pm  · 
 · 
x-jla

FLAG ▾
code HISTORY · CONTACT
I remember 08' and 09' - there will be no bounce as Trump says there will be - this will be a long slog before it it ever gets back to the level things were at in January.

MAY 11, 20 5:05 PM · 2 · 2 · REPLY
FLAG ▾
drums please, Fab?
but this is Trump not Obama

· 1
FLAG ▾
tduds
So it'll be worse.

May 12, 20 5:58 pm  · 
 · 
x-jla

Who was political bickering? Tduds is projecting more than Carol Baskin.

May 12, 20 5:59 pm  · 
 · 

Care to respond in a method that resembles a cohesive thought?

May 12, 20 6:00 pm  · 
 · 
Non Sequitur

.

May 12, 20 6:01 pm  · 
2  · 
x-jla

Chad, I reposted Tduds bickering, then accusing me of bickering. Guess he considers his brand of bickering something other than bickering?

May 12, 20 6:06 pm  · 
 · 

Actually T called you out for being a hypocrite.

May 12, 20 6:08 pm  · 
 · 
tduds

You could have simply not responded to my quip but instead you went off on some thing about China.

May 12, 20 6:14 pm  · 
 · 
x-jla

Oh, you call it a quip, and prefer your quips uncontested. Ok.

May 12, 20 6:22 pm  · 
 · 
Non Sequitur

Gents, had I not won the argument with my video above? Seems pretty clear, no?

May 12, 20 7:15 pm  · 
2  · 

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