Then make 10s of millions tests available, and get this shit out of the way. Primary reason we are in this predicament right now is because of complete lack of supplies, especially tests. Making a sweeping change in policy because of one study that recruited through Facebook, would also be foolish.

It was an autopsy performed by the county.

Single autopsy is even less telling how entire policy should be changed. I was talking about NY Times article about limited testing revealing more people are infected than previously assumed. Get more testing available right away. Go from there.

there are 3 deaths confirmed by autopsy from feb 6th to march 6th in santa clara county. county expects more.

Care to try that gain but this time with a coherent thought? Fucking moron.

did you see his link?

Lol. Covid is Deblasio’s dream come true. He said himself that he wanted government to control everything.

Look, if I had my druthers, the city government would determine every single plot of land, how development would proceed. And there would be very stringent requirements around income levels and rents. That’s a world I’d love to see, and I think what we have, in this city at least, are people who would love to have the New Deal back, on one level. They’d love to have a very, very powerful government, including a federal government, involved in directly addressing their day-to-day reality.“. ———-
Deblasio

Quote above by bill

The world govts are using covid as a power grab. Ai Wei Wei says that China has expanded authoritarianism post covid. Have to assume that those with authoritarian dreams have an interest in covid being a scarier threat than the government.

One can tell a lot about what someone believes not by what they say, but by what inspires them to say it. It's telling, in this case, that wurdan is very upset by de blasio's "fascism" but not by Trump's.

And can the reverse be true for many liberals?

Can it? Yeah, sure, anything's possible. Does posting a question asking make it so? No, and the onus is on you to prove it.

I never said it wasn't true for other people just that it's true for wurdan.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Whataboutism

Well sneaky, you are very upset by trumps fascism, but not chinas it seems. Damn, should have rearranged the words in the times article below to bait u. Too late.

You're projecting, jla, as per usual. I unblocked you to see if you had anything to say worth listening to. My curiosity sated, back on block you go.

No you didn’t. You always say you blocked me but constantly keep replying to my posts.

You are desperately jumping into conclusions for personal gain, whatever it may be. Over here in Brooklyn, my local facebook group keeps posting obituaries of prominent local figures who died. My wife's students are losing their parents and family to this thing. 60+ teachers have died so far in NYC. 80+ transit workers have died. 30+ cops have died. While literally tens of thousands going down with extreme sickness. Perhaps California air is not a great vector for disease spread. Who knows. I am not a scientist, and neither are you. Yes, you are missing something by being extremely biased and wanting specific results.

Rusty, evidence that there was covid that far back is not scientific? I don’t understand why you all are so hostile towards good news. It is good news that there are possibly more cases. You are being very biased rusty.

Again, you in NY could be seeing the tip of a much bigger iceberg. That will soon be confirmed or not by antibody testing in NY. They are also doing nationwide testing in Germany. Since when did liberals become science deniers? What you are saying in tantamount to people denying global warming because they are experiencing a colder than normal winter .

jla-x, you are perhaps missing context of additional exchange I had with Archi-dude. He is saying that these autopsies should be reason enough to open up CA economy RIGHT THIS INSTANT. I am being very cautiously optimistic about a string of good news that came out recently. Scientists are being optimistic as well. Additional testing rollout is a must next step.

And yes, jla-x, your hot takes are as dumb as a bag of drywall scraps. Same as always.

Actually Rusty no I didnt say that and past comments I've said theres a more balanced solution. You jumped to that conclusion based on the question I asked. So hmm got you questioning it yourself now too.

Yes, but it’s definitely possible. There were lots of undiagnosed pneumonia cases around that time where people were negative for flu according to doctors. I’m fact, we always have a significant monthly death toll from pneumonia of unknown origins. I was surprised to see how many die from pneumonia. It’s possible the unknown in some of these was covid. I too am like 90% sure I had it back in Feb, but don’t want to take chances either. I had all the symptoms, mildly, and it lasted about 4 weeks which is way longer than I’ve ever been sick before.

Keep in mind that COVID is a broad term that encompasses a wide variety of upper respiratory viruses. COVID-19 is the virus that's caused the pandemic we're currently experiencing. On a related note I do not think it's been proven that once you have COVID-19 and recover you are immune. I'm not certain though.

4 weeks, that was the experience in our office, both my PM on one side and the PA on the other got it, our entire row basically

why do you believe this stuff?

Why do I believe a NY times article?

"Officials Say"

You suck greedily from the teat of "Officials Say" when it furthers your shiny-hatted narrative.

“Just because your paranoid...don’t mean they’re no after you....”. Kurt Cobain.

I'm pretty sure Kurt could spell better than you, and that's a Heller quote.

*Doesn’t. Yeah, iPhone... Ah, it is indeed a Heller quote. I didn’t know that.

As do you sneaky pete when “officials say” that the Russians interfered with election...

The Chinese are secretly buying up deprecated assets rn FYI, expanding authoritarian controls, and flexing military up.

Do you have a point or do you simply revel in spewing factoids, conspiracies, and sound bytes?

Literally how we got here; Official Say

I think Ministry is working a new album with this title.

My point is that perhaps panic and economic collapse was the goal. This could be a world economic war that looks like an innocent world pandemic. If you believe that conspiracy theories are truth seeking anything below the surface, then yes it’s a conspiracy.

My point is that perhaps panic and economic collapse was the goal. This could be a world economic war that looks like an innocent world pandemic. If you believe that conspiracy theories are truth seeking anything below the surface, then yes it’s a conspiracy.

You're watching too many bad movies. It's too easy to invent agentcy and squint hard until what you see brings you comfort.

Oh, so why would China hide asymptotic cases from tally, if including them would cut fatality rate in half? Seems inconsistent with the narrative that China was downplaying the threat. The Chinese govt is very calculated with the data released. Why do you give authoritarian regimes like China the benefit of the doubt? Are you so naive to think that the world governments are not in a constant battle for control and economic/military supremacy? China and Russia have been at this for a while. I think we are justified in at least exploring the possibility that China is capitalizing on the chaos it’s causing to its geopolitical rivals.

because it's china.

..

Do you mean asymptomatic? Asymptotic could apply but it makes less sense.

Asymptomatic.

Zoom officials say that I’m currently wearing pants on my current call, but that’s a lie.

Impact of asymptomatic infection and acquired immunity on the spread and control of Ebola

.....forecasts that ignore naturally acquired immunity from asymptomatic infections overestimate incidence late in epidemics....

...the model without asymptomatic infections projects 50% more cumulative symptomatic cases than the model that accounts for asymptomatic infection.

lol, I posted this on March 31, 2020 over here: 

"jla-x, asymptomatic(note that the first line is 'not to be confused with asymptotic')"

is this about architecture again EA?

asymptote architecture?

EA, don’t understand your point? If you type asymptomatic into iPhone it autocorrects to asymptotic. So what?

Asymptomatic ... not on my iPhone. Sounds like the issue is found between the iPhone and your chair.

It’s also a pattern with you and ‘big’ words. Go back to the bottom of page 3 in this thread to see your issue with epidemiology

Seems like you have a problem with arguing substance.

Guess another name for cocaine is the Holy Spirit.

Also if you take him out of a church and put him on a street corner he gets an involuntary 72 hr hold in a padded room.

Crack is whack

my office is one of the lucky ones. 90% of our work is "essential." no changes, even more projects on the way.

Is there any proof that once you have COVID-19 you're immune?

Hey, a survey on 3k people... that's good enough to extrapolate to the whole country! eye roll. Let's see this again when there are a few extra zeros at the end of the sample size. Until then, the overwhelming scientific consensus stands instead of preliminary rumblings.

Chad, no. There have been possible reinfections in South Korea in a minority of people. Think they were all Very mild though.

Non, they are doing studies in multiple areas now. Germany is trying to test entire country.

"Hey, a survey on 3k people... that's good enough to extrapolate to the whole country!" FWIW that's much larger than almost every academic / medical study. Statistically, it's more than enough to accurately extrapolate.

Thanks Tduds for that point. I am surprised that 3k is considered a good number. Likely will require a meta analysis of several similar studies to determine reliable results.

The testing results also may be artificially high because “these are people who were out and about shopping,” Cuomo added. “They were not people who were in their home, they were not people isolated, they were not people who were quarantined who you could argue probably had a lower rate of infection because they wouldn’t come out of the house.”

yes, some good news. but as usual you're trying desperately hard to extrapolate a piece of news to your larger political bias (aka let's open the economy). again, would be great if this thread were dedicated to real information about layoffs, not politically motivated speculation. instead jla-x has completely taken over this thread with their ramblings.

Sure, more never hurts. I'm always amazed at how, intuitively, sample sizes of polls & stuff seem remarkably small but manage to yield fairly accurate results.

Square, no I’m not. If you go to page one you will see that I was calling for a 30-45 day total quarantine to stop this. I’m adjusting my position based on new data. I suspected this from the beginning, but now it seems there is some preliminary data that points to this conclusion. I’m not saying to open anything right now. You are reframing my argument to create a polarized position to more easily discredit and argue against.

However, if science says that x people have low chance of mortality and severe illness, and y people have high chance, then x people should be able to restart economy while y people continue to shelter. We are splitting resources amongst x and y. We should save those for y only, because this may last a long long time for them, and x can provide for selves again.

Based on age and health, we could possibly create a 2 year UBI for high risk people only. This would be a more effective way to mitigate death. Let young people keep the engine going, and lets protect the most vulnerable rather than cutting a check to Balkins.

Square, for the record, nothing is more relevant to layoffs than the status of the virus. These studies are being done to weigh the possibility of opening the economy. As a business owner, this type of information is very important. The possibility of opening in a month vs a year can change how we approach layoffs. From a business perspective, if we can hold off for a month, it’s not worth laying off staff. Investors and businesses keep an eye on trends like this.

jla-x, the news you posted isn't really news per se. Here in NYC most of us suspect we have been exposed at some time or the other. There was just no way to confirm that. Also, viral load exposure matters a lot as well. Someone sick sneezing into your mouth is significantly worse than you touching a door knob that may have micro droplet on it. Your body responds differently to a minor exposure then when it gets completely overwhelmed by billions of virus units. This is why healthcare workers of any age are at a much higher risk, and many have died even though they are not in your "group B". People in your "Group A" are much better off limiting exposure regardless of anything else. Your analysis is a gross simplification of a complex issue, as always.

"cutting a cheque to Balkins" Thanks for that one, made me laugh.

jla-x, you're sucking up all the air.. case and point, 4 posts in a row. some people come here for information, not only your "thoughts"

Rusty, it’s from the “news”. Other points you made have nothing to do with the topic. square, it’s easier to read that way than one long post imo.

jla-x you live in buttfuck nowhere, are completely removed from epicenters of breakouts, are staring at your screen and deciding how public policy should play out. Let adults make decisions.

Exactly, why is he in a lockdown? Why not basic mitigation and social distancing?

Your debate skills are weak. You sound like a know-it-all college freshman teachers pet.

Rick, your last paragraph is important and supports another angle to my point. We need to prioritize vaccinations. Give to those in higher risk first.

Lived in NYC most of my life btw. You

Lived in NYC most of my life btw. You

are making assumptions Rusty.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/23/nyregion/coronavirus-new-york-update.html

jla-x have I confused you for someone else? I thought you were a rural contrarian/libertarian that has been like that for many years. If you are actually in NYC, or are from here, then your views are even more heartless/sociopathic. We didn't take the warnings from Italy seriously and have paid a big price for it in NYC. Now we are warning rest of the country, and are being laughed at. This virus will not spread in suburban/rural areas like it spread here. It will spread slower, but that will be the only difference. But you are free to armchair quarterback as you please. It's just annoying to watch.

20% of nyc has been infected. Do the math.

I think it's much higher than 20%, personally. This doesn't change anything like you think it does.

Yes it does. It definitely eases some anxiety that I and many others have been dealing with for one.

Rusty, yes I am from nyc, lived there 25 years, I live on the west coast now. A lower cfr is good news. I’m not sure what you are talking about. It literally means that less people will die. What’s your malfunction? Did this spoil your hope of a socialist takeover? I don’t understand. Cuomo is happy, people are happy, things are looking better. The worst case scenario has been drastically lowered. This is good. Resources can be better allocated. That’s also good. What’s the beef? I seriously don’t get your point of view. Do you want to keep the economy closed forever? Until trump gets out of office?

or, are you so tribal and emotionally invested in some fake bundle package ideology that you can’t see beyond? Trump say that corona not as bad...science say not as bad...trump bad=science bad! How you sound to non tribal free thinkers like myself

if you don't understand the point of view, then move on. your obsession with these speculations is bizarre. talk about these things with people who live within 100 miles of you. stop trying to convince new yorkers who, by the way, are not "happy" right now; please don't make assumptions for those of us actually going through this.

jla-x. Disconnect here is that every single governmental entity is actively discussing how to sensibly reopen everything. That is the plan. It has been discussed to death (literally). While you have a lot of leaders who are trying to make the best informed decision, you also have governors of Georgia and Florida just opening shit willy nilly. When you personally talk about reopening it makes you sound like you are in the later camp. OPEN AT ALL COSTS. It's irresponsible and downright criminal.

Do you live in a cave? It’s literally the top story in every news outlet right now. I don’t give a shit if NYers decide to stay inside forever until no one ever dies again. NY is not the entire country dumbass. NY antibody testing is a sneak peak of what most of the country can expect in the true CFR. Are you slow? Grown ups make decisions based on science, not how many veins pop out of Rachel Maddows neck when she barks, or how scary it looks outside from my limited vantage point.

until you can explain how a lower cfr is bad news stfu.

"It’s literally the top story in every news outlet right now." "Rachel Maddows" It does sound you spend most of your day watching Fox news. Fatality rate being confirmed low is great news. But we were never dealing with bubonic plague. Just watching out for our health compromised fellow citizens who count in tens of millions. Nuance will never be your friend. "Do you live in a cave?" No I live in NYC. But you do. This is called projecting.

Nuance is not your thing huh. There is a huge difference between 3% CFR and 0.3% CFR. All deaths are bad, but more deaths are worse. Less death is good. What’s your point? Oh yeah, you don’t have a point. You were trying to throw spears at the tribal foe of your imagination so that your fellow tribesmen can give you virtual hi-fives.

I thought I told you to go F yourself?

This feels like a Monty Python skit. "I'm here to have an argument with a self proclaimed moderate republican". And you are talking to a bot.

I love Monty Python, but that doesn’t make sense. Can you form coherent counterpoints?

Dear Cuomo and fellow NYers, stop antibody testing and send money to AOC! She needs it. It doesn’t matter if 100% of us will die from covid, or one in a million. We will behave the same and you have no need to know. Please base future decisions and anxiety levels on the bulge of veins in Rachel Maddows neck. -Rusty

I mean we dont need to debate anymore. With states opening up we get a front row seat to who made the bad call.

I mean we dont need to debate anymore. With states opening up we get a front row seat to who made the bad call.

let's follow archi_dude's best post yet. even the don ain't happy with georgia right now.. will be an interesting test case.

Non why wouldn't you factor in asymptomatic cases? Doesnt seem to make much sense to only calculate based off of people experiencing severe symptoms who only make up 20% of total cases. Not sure I understand their logic.NY times stated today NY probably have 2.2 million total cases not the 290k or whatever. 0.7% is abig difference than 5% no? California likely has 440000 so a 0.14% still worse than the flu though.

Clearly I'm in the minority here so just trying to understand the logic.

I'll link this again - not corona, but Ebola, and in short, if you don't include asympotmatic into the estimate you'll be way off (which is why more testing would help) link

Apologies gentlemen, I got about 50 notifications from this thread yesterday so I said fuck that, I'm not digging through this just in case there was something worth replying to... then I remembered I dropped the 2 links to science-based-medicine.org. My intent was not to mic drop these and walk away feeling all high & mighty but to add to the very selective POV expressed above. Discounting the asymptomatic cases is explained in the article here:

Now let’s take a closer look at the case fatality rate. Some have argued that the true number of cases (the denominator) is much higher because there are many unrecognized asymptomatic or minimally symptomatic cases. This is true but misleading. First, this doesn’t really affect the “case fatality” rate, if we define cases as those diagnosed with COVID-19. It is still meaningful to say that if you are diagnosed with COVID-19, the mortality rate is about 5%

I would point out, however, that just diluting the denominator with asymptomatic cases doesn’t really tell us anything about the disease burden. It makes the case fatality rate lower – by making the number of cases much higher. In the end, the number of deaths and morbidity is what we care about.

furthermore

“Facts are stubborn things, but statistics are pliable.”
― Mark Twain

per my link though, it's an important part of modeling and per the Ebola cases, to avoid over estimation. because I can assure you this will happen, once the dust settles they'll realize why they over estimated and everyone who lost their job will then veer towards over reach by government and possibly conspiracy theories...in short science will lose another one.

It's a 5% mortality rate *if you show symptons* it's a 0.3-0.5% mortality rate overall. From what I noticed this is something not fully grasped by most people right now. Sad the article above wants to continue that scare mongering.

Archi, it's not scare mongering, it's about using either end of the statistical approaches to make one's point. Neither option is 100% but how it's explained in the article makes it clear why including the asymptomatic waters down the discussion.

Sheds, I may be wrong in my assumption, but I believe there is a greater body of research on Ebola than C19. More to the point, your article ends with this (emphasis mine): 

All of the conclusions above depend on whether asymptomatic infections are common, and protective against future infection. Further, strategies for leveraging protective immunity will depend on the development and validation of assays (testing) that can reliably identify individuals who are effectively protected against re-infection.

The article finishes with a recommendation for further research with the hypothesis that blood transfusion from the recovered/immune donors (who's existence needs confirmation) as treatment.  Just like JLA earlier posts, one paper is not enough to over-turn the global consensus by itself.

NS there is more research of course. My point was more testing in general otherwise "consensus" is exactly that - just "consensus" not really Facts per say. I'm just hypothetically pointing out the backfire that will come from over hyping a situation, it plays right into conspiracy theories.

by definition if the government controlled everything with the media, that would be a conspiracy theory, so you see the issue right - facts and conspiracy theories will flip if you're on the end - I lost my job, life, etc...and everything the government and media spun was way off.

"Waters it down". Hmm I just dont see it that way. Watering it down would be saying cases with such and such disease dont count. Whereas including all cases would be the true number. These lockdowns and case tracking assumptions were based on WHO numbers that your article was listing. The real mortality rate would probably sway peoples support of the lockdown. additionally even if you dont think that's a good idea. At the very minimum it would show that contact tracking is no longer feasible. You are going to contact trace 2.2 million people in New York, 440,000 in California? It allows you to see the full magnitude of the issue and see if it even makes sense.

archi_dude, it’s about 0.5 for people not showing symptoms or not getting tested. I know many many nyers who were sick and denied testing early on. In my state u only get a test if I’m your death bed. Talk about testing bias.

.2 or .5 % is still higher than flu, but it’s also a fact that it’s way less deadly than the flu for kids and teens. None of the antibody testing was done on peolle younger than 18. Including kids and teens, the overall numbers are probably even lower.

damn, I injected drano, is it too late? We ought to just put the media and Trump in a cage and let them go at it, while we go back to our lives....

Your supposed to inject it? Oops, I poured it in my asshole....

Or just put Trump in a cage.

What, and ruin the circus? We need entertainment in quarantine.

I don't think fascism is entertaining.

Guess you’ve never seen hitler on a unicycle...

Hitler loves unicycles.

/\ love that one....

Unfortunately we are not getting the same architecture as the Italians did back in the day hanging with Fascists.

Filippo Tommaso Marinetti.   then see their Architect who died in war (they liked war in theory)

Sant Elia

Instead we get brass shit.

AHHH!

Will you two quit your “Who’s the biggest Internet dumbass troll” pissing match and allow this thread to get back to the topic of layoffs? Damn you both suck.

My wife and I aren't getting any stimulus payment. We recently bought a house and to do so sold some stock in 2019. Because we filed our taxes as soon as we got all our finical information we 'made' too much money due to capitol gains. At least someone else who needs it will get the stimulus.

If I hadn't filed my taxes so early this year, our stimulus check would have been close to the full amount. Instead it was less than a quarter of my normal paycheck (most of that comes from having a child) ... which is perfectly fine with me too. We don't need the money and have been spending it supporting local businesses as much as we can so they can hopefully stay out of bankruptcy and keep their employees.

Shut the fuck up Ricky.

wow chad, what did he do? Seems like an overreaction.

The money should go to unemployment and businesses. It’s a huge waste to just hand it out to everyone.

I told Rick to STFU because he's spreading incorrect information.

Oh and it was more of a general response to the majority of his comments.  

Oh, you actually read it...I usually just read first and last sentence.

Sorry to hear that shell. NPR had a report on this yesterday as well when I was listening, that a lot of hospitals are cutting staff because of liquidity problems with elective surgeries getting postponed; this seems bonkers that any staff in any medical profession would be getting laid off at a time like this!

Oie, sorry to hear that but what I'm more stuck with above the idea of dismissing healthcare workers is that unemployment is close to normal wage. Also worth noting that I don't understand the US for profit hospital jive.

The US system (if it can even be called that) is laughably bad, except I can’t laugh because it’s so terrible.

" Also worth noting that I don't understand the US for profit hospital jive. "

you and me both ...

The us health care system has proven itself superior to the European heath care system in quality of care. Have you been living in an msnbc cave? Did you not see how overwhelmed the European hospitals were? Compare the fatality rates. Insurance system sucks, but clearly the profit system vs socialized medicine produces a better refined product.

https://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2020/04/the-united-states-has-a-very-low-covid-19-case-fatality-rate/

On par with Germany and Canada despite the fact that we got hit the hardest and likely have a much higher comorbidity.

"What accounts for the big drop between Sweden and Greece? Why does the United States have one-third the CFR of Great Britain? It’s not because of our low testing rate: if we tested more and therefore uncovered more cases, our CFR would be even lower. Does it have something to do with demographics? National health profiles? The quality of medical care? I don’t know"

it's good news. but notice how this reporter, who's job it is to follow this, notes a certain level of nuance is necessary in interpreting these numbers, and the fact is we really don't have a great handle on a lot of the information regarding this virus.

jla-x- you're still blind to the fact that every one of your posts is based off of assumptions, unproven correlations, and opinion; the very article you posted proves how laughable your assertions are.

i, along with the rest of the world, would also consider greece, denmark, norway, portugal, switzerland, germany, ireland and austria, all of whom have similar rates as the us, a part of europe. so, no, we have not been proven to be better than europe, nor socialized medicine, just some countries in europe which happen to have socialized medicine (see the nuance? it's not hard, give it a try)

Square, the areas that were hit at a similar level as US did not fare as well as the US. Canada, Ireland, Germany, etc do not have nearly the amount of cases as we did. They are also much smaller countries. It’s not controversial that the US has some of the best medical facilities in the world. Yes, insurance system is a disaster, but the for profit medical system has led to a high quality medical system.

The US has the best medical care in the world and some of the worst access to that care for the average citizen. "The hospitals are good!" is not a counterpoint to the claim that few can afford them.

germany, who have socialized medicine, have a relatively high case/100,000 people (not far behind the us- comparing total cases is apples to oranges, but you don't seem to understand that), and a much better death rate than the us. not to mention the nationalized health care likely has something to do with preventing people from contracting the virus.

Tduds, I agree with that.

Square, not saying that all socialized medicine is always bad, just saying that it’s also not always good either. Like anything else, the devil is in the details. Government can be just as bad or worse at management as private industry. The profit/loss system seems to usually keep quality in check. Without that, market forces are completely replaced with govt management.

And the flip side is overprescribing drugs, lack of wellness care, etc. I acknowledge that truth. For profit medical has many downsides as well.

For profit medial is all downsides. All I need to worry about is paying my parking.

but clearly the profit system vs socialized medicine produces a better refined product.

i appreciate the level-headed response now, but your initial words suggested otherwise. perhaps before you post you should take the time to formulate a more nuanced response instead of stupid over-simplifications.

Remember, for profit is also “for loss”. In a litigious society that leads to a very careful approach to everything. Competition is always a good thing. Some of the European systems lack competition. South Korea on the other hand has a spectacular HC system while still having equitable care.
https://mises.org/wire/markets-vs-socialism-why-south-korean-healthcare-outperforming-italy-covid-19

That came with a high cost compared to their adjacent Nordic countries.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/28/europe/sweden-coronavirus-lockdown-strategy-intl/index.html

I guess if you are only able to understand
things in the short term.

Always surprised at peopl who claim to value life, until it hits them economically.

A much better example would be NZ.

NZ is still a sitting duck for a second wave. Sweden likely has some degree of herd immunity.

It’s far too early to be making assumptions about how long immunity will last after infection with the COVID-19 virus.It sounds like that the scientific and epidemiological community are cautiously optimistic that this will be a stable virus though.

Yes, but from what I’ve heard them saying, it’s likely that we will have some immunity for a some period of time based on other coronaviruses.

Some immunity for some period of time - that's rather flimsy and seems to be a good recipe for another outbreak.

if a virus antibody doesn’t last long, is a vaccine still effective? Isn’t a vaccine a way to trick body into a producing antibodies?

I do not know. I do know that the reason we don't have vaccines for the common cold and flue is that the viruses mutate constantly. For example if you get a flue shot it's actually comprised of around six different strains of the virus. If you get a specialized flue shot then those virus strains are chosen based on where you live and what strains are common in that area. If you revive a generic flue shot then you receive strains based on a national average of the six most commonly occurring virus strains. Clearly if the COVID-19 virus mutates like the flue then vaccines will be much more difficult to produce as then would need to be constantly changing and people would need to receive such a treatment every year. If the COVID-19 virus is stable them vaccines would be viable and only need to be provided once every 10 years or so

The difference in casualties in the Nordic countries apparently is because in Sweden they have many more group homes for the elderly AND they have lots of migrant workers at those facilities that apparently don’t speak or understand Swedish all too well and didn’t understand the sometimes complicated Covid instructions and regulations. Will see how this pans out in the long run...Kudos to them for not panicking like the rest of ‘em and keeping calm and carrying on.

You'd probably be better off explaining this to your dog, at least the dog will do its best to listen.

People that compare the Swedish model to the US are inherently stupid. Notwithstanding the fact there are are quite a lot of deaths there too, one needs to understand that their healthcare system is much more equitable than the US, and most importantly, they have much lower inequality and population density. For everyone claiming to open up the economy right away, I would have then sign a "Do not Resuscitate" form, so they dont crowd our hospitals.

Do you know the case fatality rate for a healthy 40yo in the US? It’s about 0.04%- 0.01% Possibly lower. Your hysterical reaction is based on a segment of the population having really bad outcomes. No need for everyone to stay home. No one is arguing that 70yo diabetics should go out.

That’s based on NY data which is also Probably worse than most of nation.

Empathy is not hysteria jla-x.

Now, weigh that against the economic problems that most 30-40 year olds will be stuck in for decade to come. if this thing is even nearly as bad as 08...we fucked. likely it’s worse.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/04/29/gdp-coronavirus/

I'm not worried about the 30-40 year olds out there. I'm worried about the people the 30-40 year olds will infect because they're asymptomatic.

/\ THAT!

EA, exactly, which is why we can still isolate high risk groups. Resources should go to them rather than everyone getting a 1200$ check. The young and healthy can return to work, maintain distancing, hygiene, etc.

Anyone with a comorbidity or over a certain age should be placed on a UBI for x months. Same for priority when a vaccine is out. No need to waste resources and cripple the economy on people
with such a low risk.

And if they live with an old person then they can do what’s right for their particular situation.

Partial reopening

Not a bad idea jla-x. Too bad it's all up to the individual states to have to pay for and decide how to do everything. No Central guidelines or leadership. ::grumpy face::

Even if the young and healthy go back to work and you're able to effectively isolate the high risk groups (which isn't likely), I don't know that the economy will be all that much better off. As the young and healthy maintain distancing, hygiene, etc. they probably won't be frequenting many shops and restaurants that they aren't already going to. 

The lunch crowd, for example, that might have frequented their favorite lunch spot will still be down (maybe call it a lunch gathering instead) as not everyone can go back into the office at once and maintain social distance. However, the owner of that lunch spot will feel like they still need to keep the doors open for even a chance to make enough to pay their bills. But without the same volume, will they be able to make enough to pay the bills? ... their overhead largely stays the same to keep the doors open right? Will they be able to keep the same workforce if they have to keep more distance between workers while working? Maybe they raise their lunch prices slightly so they can make it work with less volume ... is the lunch crowd going to pay the higher price as they worry about their own savings and whether or not they're going to get laid off in the second wave?

Look, I'm not saying that keeping everything closed or opening it back up slowly, or even opening things up all at once, is the right or wrong thing to do. I'm just saying that there is more to the nuance than it seems like people are really discussing. One big issue it seems is the same issue that plagued us from the start ... testing. I don't see it as being helpful to open things back up without adequate testing to make sure that there aren't asymptomatic carriers spreading the virus without knowing it. That might mean that if you are going in to the office you need to be tested once a week or more. In my mind, we need testing capacity and resources first, then a slow open with the ability to throttle back if we start to see a spike in numbers again. It will probably also be based on a more granular level than states too. What works for a rural area of one state probably won't work for the large metropolitan areas of the same state.

wash hands, don't touch face, keep your distance, wear a mask and stay home when having a fever or cold-like covid symptoms...it really is not rocket science.

Restaurants, stadiums, amusement parks, and theaters will probably not bounce back for a long long time. Certain industries are probably doomed with or without ending the lockdown. That’s true. Other industries will probably bounce back quickly. There is no need to cripple the entire economy by strangling these companies from more months of income loss and debt. We will have enough to deal with from the doomed industries. Damage to the economy is inevitable. It’s now about mitigation and innovation. For the whole construction industry, we already have to comply with OSHA. Maybe OSHA needs to expand its requirements for covid-19? They already have the infrastructure to dictate workplace safety. Now just need to add a layer somehow.

randomised, see my previous comments about lack of nuance in the discussion. 

jla-x, did the libertarian just ask for more government regulation and oversight?

I've never had a problem with reasonable codes and safety requirements. Do you think libertarians are advocating to remove ”employees must wash hands” signs from bathrooms? We are far more concerned with military industrial complex, first amendment protection, etc. safety regs are way down on the totem pole just below public masterbation and cousin marrying.

EA, what lack of nuance? The things people should do to not spread the virus or to not get infected are really not that complicated, it is all common sense.

The argument that immunity after getting sick is too flimsy and we need to wait for a vaccine makes no sense. If theres no immunity after getting sick theres no immunity with a vaccine then. So again, you can only hide under your covers so long.

jla, you are truly asinine. Simple logic is, if more and more people get sick, our healthcare system will simply collapse, and even if by your logic, young people will not die, the ones that contract the disease will be left with hundreds of thousands of dollars, which will merely be added to their student debts.

sameolddoctor, You are making wild assumptions based on very biased testing. 25% of NYC has already been infected. The vast majority of young people that got the disease did not need or seek hospital care. This disease is mostly mild for healthy young people. The vast majority of hospitalizations were people with pre-existing conditions or the elderly. Like I said, they can and should remain isolated.

archi_dude, they did testing at blood banks here in NL and there are covid antibodies in roughly 3% of the population, no way herd immunity is working (here). Best option against these kinds of viruses is herd resilience by building strong immune systems: sleep plenty, exercise regularly, eat healthy...

And if vaccines don't work (long), there might reason for some to hide until a treatment/cure is found that can be given to a person each time they test positive for covid-19

Absolutely ^. Staying strong is best defense. By staying indoors and washing hands 100x a day we are Weakening immune system too.

randomised, the lack of nuance is the simplistic response that common sense, hand washing, wearing a mask, and staying home when sick is all we need. It's definitely part of the solution, I'm not saying it isn't, but it's not the only thing that will keep people healthy. There are a lot of people without regular access to hand washing, there are people who spread the disease without showing symptoms and so never would have stayed home. We can't even get enough masks for the docs and nurses, but somehow we have enough for everyone to wear one when out in public? That's what I was getting at with my lack of nuance comment.

jla-x, I thought the free market should solve those problems. Why do we need OSHA to tell us what a safe workplace is? If I as a worker don't feel safe, I'll just leave and work somewhere else that is safer. If I'm an employer and all my employees leave because they don't feel safe, I should probably spend some more money on safety gear. Free market FTW.

My sarcasm must have gotten lost in translation when sliced to pieces by Occam's razor. Clearly the States is full of people who don't have common sense, all the way to the top. That's why you're hit so hard during this pandemic, not to mention the obesity epidemic that makes almost everybody part of a risk group having a pre-existing condition or two, no offence...

EA, your understanding of the free market lacks nuance.

You are arguing to the extremes. Go move to China if you want state controlled markets and speech.

Sorry, it's late, had to get up at 05:00, and could only start working today at 21:00, two hours in and I'm done. And there was a shooting this evening 50 meter from my house, in the park I take my kids to every day, love this lockdown...and now with the ramadan on its way even more people with a short fuse, ugh...

Are we still keeping score of times we get jla-x to complain about someone arguing in the same manner as he usually does? Cause if so, I get two points for the lacking nuance, and the arguing to extremes comments. 

randomised, sorry to hear about the shooting. That's terrible. Stay safe.

Are we still keeping score of times we get EA to complain about someone arguing in the same manner as he usually does? ——fixed it.

I'm rubber and you're glue would have been a better comeback. Getting sloppy jla-x.

You keep doing it though. You said arguing to extremes is bad...I think it’s sometimes useful...then you do the same over and over. Just calling out the hypocrisy

I don't to it to make an argument though. I was only making fun of the libertarian asking for regulation rather than a free market. I understand there is more nuance to it. Maybe you even understand that nuance, but you're not really offering that in your arguments, so I call you out on it and make fun of you for it. 

You use it because you think it's useful for winning arguments. It only helps you "win" because the other person gives up because it's ridiculous to try to argue with someone who can't think critically enough to recognize the fallacies in their own arguments.

Incorrect. I do it because it reveals the extremes of an ideology and forces you to determine what’s too far- something that liberals/socialists almost always can’t do. We libertarians know what too far means....libertarianism is actually a moderate ideology, not an absolutist one. Anarchy is the absolute elimination of all regulations. Libertarianism is minimalist government. Like minimalist architecture this does not mean removing all tectonics and sleeping on the bare ground.

Should say progressives not liberals...

Thanks EA, sorry for the lack of nuance

Therefore no contradiction in my point...if a regulation is necessary it gets put into the minimalist required structure. If a problem can be solved without government, then it’s should be solved without government. The market cannot solve all problems, but it can solve most. There is also a big distinction between regulations that are a hassle and laws/regulations that infringe on ones liberty. Not being allowed to piss in the street does not infringe on my liberty. It’s not my street, so we have rules. Big big difference. You are judging libertarianism by the party and it’s spin offs. I’m referring to the core philosophy...I don’t believe in political parties at all.

i appreciate that jla-x is trying to use "nuance," though he hasn't credited me for introducing him to the word

And there we go, back to arguing extremes again. I'm not trying to argue the merits (of lack thereof) of your argument, so no need to come back with more of it ... I'm just here to point out the fallacies. 

The premise of your statement that libertarians know what too far means as opposed to [progressives]/socialists encourages an "us" vs. "them" false dichotomy (i.e. extremes). You try to establish libertarians as the middle ground (in contrast to anarchy) in a bad attempt to deflect from the black vs. white dichotomy (as apparently libertarians would be the gray) but it is still a false dilemma. It's also a bad attempt at nuance.

Even accepting that "too far" is known, or even some type of established, absolute is a false dilemma and reduction to absurdity. 

I should also mention that your point of "if a problem can be solved without government, then it should be solved without government" is a false dilemma. Following that up with the statement that the market can solve most problems sets up that fallacy well to suit your own viewpoint. However, it is still a false dilemma ... as is the implication you sneak in there that regulations/laws are either a hassle, or an infringement on ones liberty. 

Thanks for playing.

If we go back to the libertarianism thread I already made the case and castrated you and others. I care not to take a deep dive on this thread. Progressives may know what “too far” is, but they certainly won’t admit it. How much taxes are too much? “Uhhh durp...”.

Free markets are a requirement for a free society. Very simple. Can’t have freedom and liberty without the ability to engage in free commerce. There are zero societies with civil liberties that don’t also have economic liberty. ZERO

how much taxes

I don’t remember that thread and ... yep, still got the jewels so ...

I dug around to find the thread you remember. I was never a part of it, so you can apologize for the comment about castrating me. As for the others ... all I can say is that you have an active, imaginative, and selective memory. For those who don't want to take the time; jla-x argued straw men and extremes while others tried to argue reasonably with logic. In the end, the others all gave up trying and jla-x (apparently) claimed victory.

I just checked, I can confirm there was no castration on my side.

Something about extremes, can't remember where i saw it.

See above meme by sod. Democrats and Conservatives are exactly like Carol Baskin. Both acting like their shit don’t stink, doing same thing as Joe Exotic, but rebranding into something feel goody...hypocrites.

jla-x, thank you for your drawing. I appreciate not having a ventilator stuck down my throat, which is what will happen is the "liberators" have their way with opening up the states too fast. Thanks again.

Hahahhahahhaha hidden....but meme about people of a certain political persuasion dying from covid not hidden. Typical...

No

Well you tried. Now what zg_a?

I tried. Has been annoying me for a while.

You just learn to ignore the comments - kind of like a Trump supporter. Then when you meet them IRL you beat the ever loving crap out of them.

Yep.

The amount of six-figure student loan debt in these responses is terrifying.

Stuff = Capital (simple George Carlin)

China is not a true example of a Communist nation. They are extremely capitalist, but disguise it as Communism, especially in recent times...

Two things there. Yes in capitalism companies can hire and fire based on needs. Secondly, you are free to choose where you work and not work at places that hire and fire like that. You have the freedom to not get a masters in (insert useless overpriced liberal arts) and do great. You also have the freedom to get a masters in (insert useless overpriced liberal arts) for 10's of thousands possibky hundreds of thousands if you liked an out of state school and then complain that the system is rigged against you.

The no true Scotsman fallacy. China is a communist authoritarian regime. They also purposefully led covid spread I think. Hopefully once this is over the world cuts them off and they no longer can engage in capitalism...which will lead to their eventual collapse.

archi_dude, yes, you have a choice in some regards as to where you work (you of course have to be hired, so freedom is a silly word as the condition of your work is dependent on many things), but the livelihood of a worker is dependent on the boss, and not the other way around, making it an uneven relationship. in other words, bosses have a lot of power and are the ones with real freedom to hire and fire at their discretion. seeing the work and boss as having equal amounts of "freedom" is at best an interpretation of the situation, not fact.

Dang, it sounds really hard to go through life seeing yourself as a victim of circumstance
.

Good thing in the US you can become a boss if you want, and then can organize your office however you think is fair. You can hire people and pay them 2x as much as you make, you can give them the big office and work out of a Storage closet....when you work for someone else, you sign a contract to do something for a fee. There is an exchange of work for pay made between 2 consenting adults. If you don’t like that arrangement, you are free to leave and go somewhere better. By saying that you have no “freedom” you are essentially saying that you don’t have the capacity to enter into an agreement.

the freedom you talk about is defined within a pretty narrow scope. having a limited set of choices doesn't make you "free;" at the very least it's an extremely conditioned freedom. take a look at architecture graduates this year.. they will be entering a very difficult labor market in which bosses have a huge upper hand, most of which are laying off employees right now, able to higher depressed labor down the road. think those students are free? not to mention most of the country's workers aren't so lucky; try telling someone in retail or food service to leverage their freedom by negotiating the terms of their "contract"- they'll be fired (e.g. amazon). assuming working class people just need more willpower so they can taste the freedom goes to show how out of touch you are.

Freedom doesn’t mean that you get a 100% perfect field...that sense of entitlement is odd. The world doesn’t owe you anything except for your liberty. Freedom means that you have the ability to freely navigate through the field that happens to be there, hopefully making it a little better for those who follow.

You are confusing ones freedom of movement with unlimited access to ones goals. Access is always going to be limited to some degree depending on circumstances, internal and external, personal and societal. The well intentioned socialists want to create equality by controlling access. The well intentioned libertarians want to create prosperity by removing government imposed limits on movement and access. Many reasons why the socialists are wrong. For one, they fail to recognize that some people want to access more than others. Suppressing that then requires limiting access which requires coercion/punishment via govt...

As you point out, a lot of firms in our (crappy) industry are trying to use this excuse to lay off people

Absolutely. Many firm owners would and do cut staff instead of reducing partner salaries and bonuses. My old bosses cut 15% of the staff one Friday and the following Monday one of them rolls up in a big brand new Audi and the other is talking about how he spent the weekend shopping for a new boat.

Times were tough I'm sure. Think of how much bigger the boat could have been...

I have to agree Rick - what a bunch of assholes. Even if the partners described above had saved up a bunch of money and had the cash to buy the car and boat don't be a dick and flaunt it when others are taking a pay cut. That's a great way for people to jump ship as soon as things recover.

Correct. You finally understand the value of prevention.

1,102 cases on USS Theodore Roosevelt - 1 death 0.09% death rate far below the flu. Diamond princess - 1.3% (older population) Likelihood of dying in car crash 1/103, 0.9% This is the equivalent of chopping off your arm for darker looking freckle. So should we prevent car crashes by outlawing driving? Same risk factor Non.

First your point is we don’t know, now it’s we know enough to compare it to other risks in order to create straw men?

Merely pointing out the irony of warnings that we dont have enough info regarding any science that points to this not being as serious as warranting a full lockdown. Whereas every scientific assumption that says this is the plague is held as infallible. That's not science that's religion. So as we are looking down the barrel of another great depression and social breakdown. Is this really a rational prevention strategy?

yawn, not this dead horse again.

archi_dude - I see your point. However I believe that in the field of infectious disease and virology the science points to the effectiveness and requirement of 'lock down' and 'isolation' as a means of stopping the spread of a contagion. It's a well proven an accepted method of dealing with an unknown fast spreading disease. Step one is stop the spread of the disease. Step two is find a cure.

but Chad, what about step 1.5: return everything to normal based on selective internet research?

But shouldn't the effectiveness of the lockdown and long term consequences be weighed? Right now it would seem the lockdowns are quite ineffective and the long term consequences are extraordinary while the risk itself is minor. Wouldnt that warrant switching to a more surgical lockdown and prevention method? Newsom himself has admitted the disease was in CA since Decemeber, thats 3.5 months with no lockdown, no one noticed anything strange and hospitals are still right now empty. This is not the Spanish flu crisis in any way.

Lockdown is very effective here. Join the Michigan idiots if you have compelling evidence to the contrary of the overwhelming scientific position.

I do. Decreases in new cases began 3/29, 2 weeks is accepted lead time until new cases are found. Lockdowns started on 3/20 and after. So essentially we didnt need to burn our rights and destroy our livelihoods to flatten the curve. Yes it would seem the Sweden model has a higher risk right now with a few thousand extra deaths and the overwhelming scientific opinion is based on saving every single life. But if you could summon the mental capacity to think of the consequences of 18-24 months down the road on this path like the "experts" are asking. It doesnt take much to realize we need to demand a better solution. Anyway
your enjoy your religion Non.

It's not religion, it's unbiased and reasonable thinking. Feel free to be the first to nominate a few of your loved-ones to be put in harm's way. The rest of us understand the situation without the need to draw quick conclusions.

archi-due - Actually lock downs are proving to be highly effective at reducing the transmission rate (Rt). When dealing with a highly infectious disease you have to prioritize things. Do you want to limit the amount of death? Do you want the economy to recover faster? Do you want to get a haircut?

Check out the Rt stats here:

https://rt.live/?fbclid=IwAR3OXiEzfmrr2RK23t0Yx8DVHFhCsNaAttt6ZpNRNK4WgNKL8hfFbelUbWA#MN

archi_dude, where do you live? I've found that in talking with my friends and family about the stay-at-home measures their reaction either positive or negative is pretty closely correlated with whether they live in an urban or rural area.

I'm not disagreeing with the lockdowns working just saying we didnt need them to avoid overwhelming hospitals. And when ALL decisions rest with a community who, while very noble indeed, wants to save EVERY life and it's not tempered with the reality of that impact I question it. Because ultimately I dont know many countries with collapsed economies, researching,
manufscturing and distributing highly complex vaccines for their entire population.

so, who's lives are you recommending we terminate first so that you can go out and have a pint at the pub with your buddies?

Economy, famine, social unrest Non, your lack of ability to grasp those consequences explains your support for the current response.

Not true, I understand it very well. You would not be this fucked had you opted for more socially-progressive government. Your level of desperation is fortunately very limited. The rest of us able to see beyond our own personal bubble will be fine.

I have to agree with Non on this one archi. Our government flubbed this COVID response thing up in a spectacular fashion. The lack of leadership, the constant distrust and contradiction of science and health experts, the failed financial bailout, the hard core partisanship, and the blatant dis-concern about the poor and lower middle class. We screwed ourselves on this one by electing our current president. Other countries aren't having these issues - it's just us.

The same motherfuckers who whine about untrained designers and homeowners not hiring Architects sit around here second guessing scientists. There's some fucking irony for you, archi_dude.

lockdowns are the plan C option after more effective and less intrusive steps weren't taken. it's one of those situations where potential risks and serious warnings are ignored until panic is the only reasonable reaction. fyi there are plenty of studies in the relative risks. it's not negligible at all.

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-05-07/comparing-coronavirus-deaths-by-age-with-flu-driving-fatalities

unless you're under 35ish.

Welcome to the party.

My brain is exploding. Come check out NYC and then tell me about not needing shutdowns to overwhelm hospitals. Fucking unbelievable.

If you can read, you'll see that was about California and more car centric states. A metro area that has high concentrations of populations and high usage of public transit. Yeah you should definitely take higher precautions. Plus keep in mind your mayor was telling everyone to gather in groups pretty much a week before. Theres difference between lockdowns and social distancing and washing hands.

A patronizing tone is definitely the best tactic for changing minds. If you make 'em feel stupid, they'll agree with you! Keep up the good work!

we're not shut-down... we're actually busy and picking up new projects.

I turned down three new projects this week, good ones too, cause I can't take more on.

I know of 10 or so projects our firm has won since mid-March when we've been 100% WFH for all locations. There could be more that haven't crossed my inbox too. We are definitely not closed.

We picked up two large education projects and three mid sized retail ones. We also have another school RFP that we'll probably get and a few mid sized government project. We may be looking to hire a project manager due to the new work.

Hey Chad if you don't mind, PM me once that develops more. I am really considering returning to my home state.

tintt, you are primarily residential, right? Not at all surprised people are re-thinking their dwellings right now.

A bit more surprised at the schools and commercial projects continuing right now... We just got hired for a study on a couple office buildings. Seems dumb.

I'm some of each. All the new leads this week are residential and only one is semi-local. One across the state and one on the west coast.

Biggest problem is I don't have a quiet place to work. I work from home and it works great but now school is canceled and my husband is working from home too. There are three new houses being built across the street so there is all kinds of yelling and banging and trucks coming and going and people. Kids can't go to the playground. Sorry I'm ranting. This is ridiculous. All to protect the delicate egos of the politicians.

Upset that the internet keeps crapping out on me too. Thinking to switching to working all night and sleeping all day. All the emails come in the middle of the night anways.

Shut your ramblings, dude. You were one of the ones advocating for opening up shit, and now you are the one complaining. lol.

Nah have always been for an intelligent balanced approach. Anyway looks like we are there at least in SoCal.

do you ever use both sides of your mouth to speak at the SAME TIME?

If you can do that, both sides of your mouth, you can run for office! Pretty sure I saw a dude either dead or nearly dead today in the city and many ambulances...have some essential jobs in the city hit hardest....but was good to see the junkies and homeless guys without masks just yelling and screaming, always comforting.

I’m going to practice social distancing permanently. It’s relaxing.

Nope.

It's just hoping that no one will notice and will treat it differently. That or it's just a not very creative or intelligent person trying to troll a bit. Actually both could be correct.

According to my ignore settings, which follow you around when the name listed is altered, it's the same fool.

I’m a condensed version. 2 sentence KOs only.

Your fat ass hasn't knocked anyone out in any sense every.

The soy is making you emotionally unstable.