Archinect
anchor

COVID-19 Lay-off Thread

2939
randomised

Not laid off but self-employed/freelance ;) Was quite busy transferring out of architecture and move more into consulting/design thinking/research recently, chaired an international jury at a global design event, wrote some articles for a magazine and two major design and engineering consulting firms were seriously working on creating a tailor made position, but all meetings might have been in vain since CVID hit the fan ... and everyone got (at least) a bit chilly feet. Thankfully I live in a normal country with healthcare and social security so no worries there. The other plus side, am most likely immune now for SARS-CoV-2 (this corona-season?) and my BMI went down, so that's nice.

Apr 6, 20 4:20 pm  · 
 · 
axonapoplectic

So you think you had covid or do you know for sure? my doctor thinks I had a “mild” case earlier last month, but I didn’t get tested because it was never bad enough for me to go to the ER. I would like the antibody test to become widely
available so I can know for sure.

Apr 6, 20 4:29 pm  · 
 · 
randomised

Didn't get tested unfortunately but had some of the symptoms myself (while I got a flu shot earlier this season to rule that out), my girlfriend got almost all of the symptoms including obscure ones as losing smell and taste and even developed pneumonia, but no test either.

Apr 6, 20 4:46 pm  · 
 · 
robhaw

It's good that you are back, now I can ask someone my Dutch related questions. Hope your girlfriend is OK.

Apr 6, 20 5:44 pm  · 
 · 
x-jla

I think I had a mild case as well. No guarantees about immunity yet...I’m definitely going to get antibody test so I can donate plasma if I truly did have it.

Apr 6, 20 7:13 pm  · 
 · 
randomised

thanks Rob fire away! and she's fine now.

Apr 7, 20 4:33 am  · 
 · 
randomised

would love that immunity test as well, can come in handy to get new work too

Apr 7, 20 4:33 am  · 
 · 
archi_dude's comment has been hidden
archi_dude

So when can we start admitting that bar closures and closing large events were enough and a full lockdown wasn't necessary to slow the spread? NY times tracker shows a slowdown in every state starting last Monday the 31st. 2 weeks prior, the lag time of infection to detection, most states were still business as usual. 

Apr 7, 20 9:23 am  · 
 · 
x-jla

Slow down is likely because of the closures that happened around 2-3 weeks ago...which also happens to be the max incubation time. Seems like it was worth it.

Apr 7, 20 11:18 am  · 
 · 
tduds

I'd rather have overreacted than underreacted.

Apr 7, 20 11:22 am  · 
 · 
archi_dude

Again 2 weeks from that slowdown on the 31st, most of the country was business as usual with only a few states doing some work remotely and bar closures. so 3 weeks would be just the handwashing and awareness slowing it down Jlax. Tduds, valid but when do we admit it was overreacting and stop using a shotgun to remove a tumor.

Apr 7, 20 11:50 am  · 
 · 
tduds

July, maybe.

Apr 7, 20 11:52 am  · 
 · 
square.

virtually no one in nyc would agree with your assessment. sending millions of people into work on crowded trains, buses etc. would have resulted in something infinitely worse than we are seeing now. the hospitals are at max capacity. our closest hospital is refusing new patients. i'll take whatever you're calling an overreaction anyday to seeing 30k people die in the city (would be almost 60k with today's numbers) like in 1918.

Apr 7, 20 11:59 am  · 
 · 
archi_dude

Not arguing to go back to full normal. Just saying that even in New York the timeline and numbers show that people working from home if they can, closure of restaurants and bars and discontinuing large events was enough to bend the curve. NY waited too long to implement that. But the numbers are also showing that the full
lockdowns aren't needed so when do we realize that we're creating much larger issues?

Apr 7, 20 12:24 pm  · 
 · 
Bench

Politely - square's assessment is much closer to reality than yours for NYC. The numbers are still going up. And it is still spreading. Listen, I'd love to be back to work as normal too. But your suggestion is just plain irresponsible.

Apr 7, 20 12:45 pm  · 
 · 
archi_dude

And you dont think advocating a lopsided response and an economic collapse isnt?

Apr 7, 20 1:11 pm  · 
 · 
Bench

Not sure why you're so willing to risk people's safety on this.

Apr 7, 20 1:47 pm  · 
 · 
archi_dude

The current approach risking just as much safety longterm. Merely pointing out that it's probably time to have a discussion on a balanced approach. The curve is flattening, the numbers and timeline show it happened with much looser controls, in an effort to avoid far greater safety risks on a much larger scale wouldnt it be prudent to take balanced view of things. Rather than declaring anyone with that view is a murderer?

Apr 7, 20 1:57 pm  · 
 · 
tduds

It's probably time for people who are professionals in this area of study to have that discussion, and I'm willing to trust that they are. What the hell do I, an architect, know about any of this? Pushing my 'intuition' into the public conversation is unhelpful at best and harmful at worst.

Apr 7, 20 2:00 pm  · 
 · 
tduds

I'm no economist but it seems to me like the overwhelming uncertainty & productivity-loss caused by rolling waves of death and sickness over the next 18-24 months would be a bigger drain on the economy than 6-8 weeks of everybody just chillin.' & if the people whose job it is to make these predictive models say that's what it'll take, then I'll grit my teeth & bear it.

Apr 7, 20 2:03 pm  · 
 · 
archi_dude

Now that's a real response. I would like to see more conversation on that now that it seems everyone is chilling and there was an effect a few weeks before everyone was on mandatory chill out time.

Apr 7, 20 2:11 pm  · 
 · 
square.

what are you talking about? we have yet to hit peak in ny and started what you're calling "mandatory chill time" on march 20th, though some businesses started phasing in that week before. we are only just this week beginning to see the positive effects of social distancing and shutting everything down. you can't superimpose what is happening to the rest of the country on ny.. we ARE the epicenter now. and in the hardest hit area, the shutdown is working and saving lives. also- if you're referring to a "slowdown" as the orange bar that tracks the rate of growth, that is only indicating how quickly # of total cases are doubling... there is still a steep positive growth. it's good to see that the rate of cases doubling is slowing down (it can't grow forever..) but we're still adding more cases everyday. until that number cases per day starts decreasing, this is far from over. and another question- if what you describe in ny isn't a "full shut down," than what is? where is this place that needs a more balanced approach? we have yet to see the full effects in states that have had more lax approaches; just wait.

Apr 7, 20 2:47 pm  · 
 · 
x-jla

I think we need to do whatever to beat this thing for a few reasons, and even if it turns out less deadly than media is reporting when denominator is expanded as antibody testing becomes more widespread. 1) save lives obviously. 2) unite the nation in a shared goal that requires some voluntary sacrifice 3) prepare for future pandemics and disasters. It’s better safe than sorry....but other than the real economic turmoil this is causing...we will come out of it with a can do spirit that’s been absent since the end of ww2. With that, I anticipate a fast and strong economic recovery with a new revival of manufacturing and infrastructure.

Apr 7, 20 4:50 pm  · 
 · 
revolutionary poet

Just an idea if you're out of work in NYC.

Find out which firms have essential projects still going on.

See map:

https://www1.nyc.gov/assets/buildings/html/essential-active-construction.html 

The go to either:

http://a810-bisweb.nyc.gov/bis...

or

https://a810-dobnow.nyc.gov/pu...


Find the Applicant of Record's address.  Send them your CV and resume.

Apr 7, 20 9:25 am  · 
 · 
sp429

Thanks for this, a virus's virus

Apr 7, 20 10:01 am  · 
 · 
tduds

Officially no layoffs or pay cuts for April. Remains to be seen what May brings. Plus my wife's landscape design company signed three new jobs last week... all these people stuck at home looking at their backyards must've started getting ideas.

Cautiously optimistic is the mood of the household this week.

Apr 7, 20 11:01 am  · 
 · 
Chad Miller

I'm being pessimistic and planning on setting up the capabilities to do contract work for other firms in the state.

Apr 7, 20 11:29 am  · 
 · 
tintt

I had a job come back last week, one came back this week, and have leads on several more. End of March didn't look so good but spring into summer is. Manufacturing, institutional, and heathcare related work - all with existing buildings.

Apr 7, 20 2:07 pm  · 
 · 

quick update from our end: the rules around the PPP program changed and, voila, we were eligible. we got our application into our bank (smaller, regional, not one of the big banks) 2 days before the program officially opened. we were told our portion was "allocated" on sunday late.

however, i’m going to tell you that unless they open the taps up again nationally, it’s probably too late for this PPP loan. long and short from what we heard from our bank about the program:

the whole thing was way oversubscribed, even before the big banks were getting applications in. 


the banks are losing money (literally) with every application as they are the servicer, not the feds. the interest rate and forgiveness portions mean they’ll probably never see a dime on them. 

most of the big banks are also concerned that all these loans on their books will prohibit or severely restrict their ability to do other loans until they get cleared. this wasn't clear in the initial guidance given to the banks and seems to have just been cleared up yesterday (it won't count). this is a monster concern for the big banks. 

most of the big banks are "slow-rolling" their participation for that reason. 

we were number 1800 or so in our bank's system. they had 6000 applications as of saturday morning. again, this is a regional bank at best. 

that said, our bank was thinking that a second wave would be rolled out in the next stimulus bill. so: have all your financials ready - the more complete the paperwork, the better your chances. And maybe look for a smaller bank to go through - ours went a little farther for us because we’ve had a long time relationship but I’m sure they’d be open to new business. and… once we see the final paperwork, I’ll share what’s truly involved with the loan forgiveness portion. 


just some observations. 

Apr 7, 20 12:43 pm  · 
 · 
curtkram

do you think this will freeze up construction loans, or does that ultimately come out of a different pot?

Apr 7, 20 2:11 pm  · 
 · 

from what i took away, definitely different pots but the issue is that there's only so much debt they can take on relative to their cash/capitalization (as a whole). it could affect their ability to take on other loans. so, for example, wells fargo said that based their balance sheet, they would only take on 10B worth of loans for this program, for which they've already processed enough applications to hit that limit and they are not taking on any additional PPP loans.

Apr 7, 20 2:22 pm  · 
 · 

BOA seems to be doing the most of the big banks. as a whole, though, this whole thing seems both rushed (understandable) but SBA was literally changing loan terms every 12 hours. in that regard, i'm not surprised that the big banks said 'well, let's see where the final rules land and we'll formulate our response afterwards' - it could have been a huge unintentional exposure for them.

Apr 7, 20 2:26 pm  · 
 · 
TED

Let's all remember it was you, I and many others who bailed out the banks in 2008 - don't shed a tear for the banks -

Apr 9, 20 5:42 am  · 
 · 
thisisnotmyname

Our little big bank Regions Bank strung us along from the first day PPP became available on April 3rd right up until funds ran out today. We actually had an appointment with a banker at 9am on 4/3 that the Regions banker didn't show up to. After that, we applied online, uploaded a slew of documents and got a bunch of emails saying basically "We're processing your loan but it's just such hard work!" Meanwhile, several little banks nearby took care of any and all applicants in 2-3 days.

Apr 16, 20 2:09 pm  · 
 · 
zonker

It's not unlike the HAMP program back in 09' . banks would slow roll, It ws people with incomplete paper work that gor hammered with foreclosure - best bet is smaller banks. The office I work for is working with a smaller bank. Wells Fargo? BofA.?

Apr 7, 20 12:52 pm  · 
 · 
Apple_Juice_Yes

I work for a large architecture firm. We have many offices throughout the US and the world. It is a firm most have heard of.

Many employees got laid off throughout the country. 20 were laid off from my office in California. Higher ups got pay cuts. 

I didn't think this would happen to a seemingly financially stable firm like mine. Those who think they have job security, think again. This is only the beginning.

Apr 8, 20 8:54 pm  · 
 · 
wurdan freo

Not architecture, but REI just furloughed 11,000 employees nationwide for three months. If this things drags on its going to get real ugly. 

Talked to a local architect today, business as usual with a couple clients in wait and see mode.

Apr 8, 20 9:17 pm  · 
 · 

I just ordered some stuff from REI during their spring sale. It arrived about a week ahead of schedule ... maybe they're only keeping people working in shipping and warehousing. Making it architecture related ... anyone think this will delay their new headquarters design? I think NBBJ has the project ...

Edit: Yes they do ... http://www.nbbj.com/news/2017/3/23/reis-new-nature-centered-headquarters-design-featured-in-the-puget-sound-business-journal/

Apr 10, 20 2:14 pm  · 
 · 
bowling_ball

No layoffs (yet). Came to report that today I signed a new (small) contract with an existing client, and did a walk through with a new potential client for a commercial renovation. It's not all terrible news out there. Thank goodness. Keep your chins up.

Apr 9, 20 2:51 am  · 
 · 
bad_hombre

I work at a large firm in NYC with over 150 people on staff and a pretty well known starchitect at the head . Definitely a firm you've heard of if you work in NYC. I thought we'd be safe because of the number and diversity of our projects, but today 80 of us were laid off, myself included. Everyone else took a pay cut. A lot of academic projects are being put on hold, and other projects are on pause. 

Definitely sucks, but as a recent graduate I think this is putting a lot of things into perspective. This profession is messed up and precarious in so many ways; it's forward-looking in so many respects, but in so many others that are very fundamental it is as archaic and stuck in its ways as ever. I hope this situation gives all of the leaders in our profession impetus to consider how we think of ourselves and the work we do. 

I think the run-of-the-mill, crazy hours and thin margins can't possibly survive another event on this scale, which is sure to happen again in our lifetimes.

Apr 9, 20 11:35 am  · 
 · 
archanonymous

sorry to hear that, and i'll second hoping something good comes of it. My career was definitely shaped by the 2008 recession quite a bit, but seemed to have turned out ok.

Apr 9, 20 11:48 am  · 
 · 
thisisnotmyname

A lot of clients have decided to skip payment of invoices for work architects did in February and March. That kind of behavior puts impossible financial pressure on even the biggest practices.

Apr 9, 20 12:12 pm  · 
 · 
bad_hombre

Yeah it's becoming more and more apparent. It just makes me wonder why the typical architecture business model is so, for lack of a better word, dumb, when a lot of the people we work are so much better positioned financially and from a business model point of view. I guess some things are just the way they are because they came to be that way over time, but when my firm's penthouses sell for tens of millions of dollars, it makes me wonder why architects' salaries are so comparatively meager compared to the rest of the professional world.

Apr 9, 20 12:30 pm  · 
 · 
zonker

Well, I too, worked for a major firm in SF, when the bottom fell out in 08'. It took 1 year before I got another architecture job, and another 5 years to get back to where I was in 08'. You will need to be very persistent with your career from here on. Stay on top of technology, and be the best. Be willing to work long hours and weekends forever.

Apr 9, 20 12:37 pm  · 
 · 
square.

this pandemic has exposed the untenable nature of this profession. while i oppose everything the code presents as a solution to the problem (the exceptional meritocracy), they are not wrong in that many will have to make these sorts of choices in order to keep paying the bills. it's going to be a rude awakening for firms when students wake up and stop paying a mortgage for a degree with such a terrible return. i wouldn't be surprised if this crisis is the beginning of the end.

Apr 9, 20 2:13 pm  · 
 · 
Chad Miller

I am not willing to work long hours and weekends (for free) forever. I will only do 50 plus hour weeks three times a year. I will only work two weekends a year. I'm not a partner so it's not needed unless projects aren't managed correctly. PERIOD.

Apr 9, 20 3:41 pm  · 
 · 
bad_hombre

I also am not willing to give my life to this profession. If it comes to the point where we can only find work if we're willing to routinely work long hours and weekends, I will simply find something else to do for a living.

We've put ourselves through school, we're all smart and capable people who have invested a lot of hard work in ourselves, and have many talents to offer. Chad is right-so many of the weekends and long hours I've had to work have been completely preventable. Why isn't overtime pay standard? I'll work; just pay me for it. The 1% squeezes so much free labor out of this profession.

I love architecture and believe in it as strongly as ever, but I don't think we should feel like we need to degrade ourselves to work in this field.

Apr 9, 20 5:04 pm  · 
 · 
square.

alduran you are right, it's hardly worth it for most. Chad I agree, and work similar hours. very few days past office hours, extremely rare weekends. but I worry this is the exception and not the norm. being in nyc the majority of my peers are working ridiculous hours (and envious of my situation), and many are echoing what a recent feature on this website said... to be a great worker, go the extra mile, step it up, etc etc. aka turn up the exploitation. if anything i hope this will weed out the bad firms, but my gut tells me the change needs to come also from people like alduran no t willing to put up with the bullshit anymore.

Apr 9, 20 5:17 pm  · 
 · 
Apple_Juice_Yes

Over half of your firm got laid off? How much overhead did you guys carry? Jeez, that's definitely some irresponsible financial management.

Apr 9, 20 7:50 pm  · 
 · 
Doc Arch

Hmm.. just a guess based on speaking with friends in the NY area - I have a pretty good idea which firm you work for... I would imagine you're good at making cocktails and classical references?

Apr 9, 20 8:19 pm  · 
 · 
archi_dude

So a couple of points for things brought up here. I left architecture to work for a contractor 2 years ago as a field engineer/superintendent. I left during the "good times" this cycle because I saw how razor thing our margins were, how much debt we had, how little our management actually knew about building things and the people who did, got laid off because they were expensive when a few jobs went away. I realized if it was that precarious during "good times" the slightest hiccup was going to take it all down. On the contractor side, while we are just as exposed, it comes down to business models. The business models are just as important as the construction where as, the art side always wins in architecture and the business model is usually ignored, with needless reclines, redesigns and "hey let's do SD in sketchup and then remodel everything in Revit for CD's and blow the budget becuase the sketchup model is nonsense. Architecture is an art, a luxury and to think you'll get a middle class salary doing
grunt work at something that is a luxury just wont ever happe.

Apr 9, 20 9:24 pm  · 
 · 
archi_dude

Same with developers, business is the most important item because that's what let's you build. I'm not arguing that architecture isnt valuable, that's just reality of being an architect. It's mostly centered around an intangible item that is hard to value.

Apr 9, 20 9:26 pm  · 
 · 
revolutionary poet

in architecture, the majority of the OVERHEAD is staff.

Apr 9, 20 9:41 pm  · 
 · 

80 laid off out of 150. Just wanted to reiterate that percentage.

Apr 10, 20 12:52 am  · 
 · 
Chad Miller

virus - staff are not overhead - staff are a resource. If your firm views staff as overhead then you're working at a shitty firm with moron 'leadership'.

Apr 10, 20 10:05 am  · 
 · 
x-jla

Yes, when you do taxes and calculate overhead just leave staff out to be PC and make chad fell good.

Apr 10, 20 10:22 am  · 
 · 
bad_hombre

People, it wasn't 80 out 0f 150. If you see my original post I noted that firm had more than 150 people. They ended up laying of roughly a little less than a third of the staff.

Apr 10, 20 10:23 am  · 
 · 
geezertect

Ah, yes, the age old debate about why architects don't get paid shit. Repeat after every payday: "Supply and demand

Apr 10, 20 10:34 am  · 
 · 
Chad Miller

jla-x - Don't be obtuse. It's not about being PC. If you treat your team like they are nothing more than a cost of doing business then as management you get what you deserve.

Apr 10, 20 10:43 am  · 
 · 
square.

alduran- 1/3 would be 80/240. something about your calculations seem a bit off...

Apr 10, 20 10:52 am  · 
 · 
CodesareFUN

If a firm is laying off over half their staff right now, they weren’t managing things right to being with. Some layoffs/cuts are to be expects, but over half the firm? Here I was thinking less than 10% of staff plus (hopefully temporary) pay cut for all was bad...

Apr 10, 20 10:55 am  · 
 · 
archi_dude

I dont understand any business less than 500 that is laying people off. There is free money to keep

Apr 10, 20 11:01 am  · 
 · 
archi_dude

your staff through the initial shutdown. The only thing I could think of t

Apr 10, 20 11:02 am  · 
 · 
archi_dude

*okay I seriously hate that I switched to android. But you get what I was trying to say.

Apr 10, 20 11:03 am  · 
 · 
bad_hombre

Yes. My firm employed closer to 300 people if that helps. I just said over 150 in my original post to not cite an exact number. Ended up laying off little less than a third of staff.

Apr 10, 20 11:15 am  · 
 · 

I'm sorry, alduran, I did misread your statement! So not 50% laid off, less than 30%. Thank you for clarifying!

Apr 10, 20 11:20 am  · 
 · 
revolutionary poet

Chad - resources are overhead - technically. but if you makes you feel better I'll explain it this way - staff are the majority of your costs, so if you don't have money you consolidate. Simple math.

Apr 10, 20 1:41 pm  · 
 · 
revolutionary poet

example: One seat will cost you about $500 for a desk, $200 in software, and let's just throw some random misc. in to add up to $1k a month. an employee as a W2 with health benefits will run you in the range of $5k to $10k a month. So let's say the average is $7500 and an employee and $1k for the seat - That's 88% for the human and 12% for what you want to call OVERHEAD. Cut one person you can probably cover your OVERHEAD for a few months. And if you don't have any work for the person you have to lay them off....the PPP is taking way too damn long anyway. Many banks are not even doing it including some big ones.

Apr 10, 20 1:47 pm  · 
 · 
zonker

PPP isn't going to work for the majority of firms - most firms are too small for the banks, too much risk

Apr 10, 20 2:06 pm  · 
 · 
Chad Miller

virus - I understand all that. Most (stupid) business owners view overhead the cost of doing business that if reduced produce more profit. While staff are technically overhead they are the resource that makes your firm money and if managed correctly, profit. Obviously if your staff have no work then they are simply an expense and no amount of great management will make them profitable.

Apr 10, 20 2:09 pm  · 
 · 
square.

virus- for a large firm, good luck generating any kind of revenue to cover any overhead without staff. for smaller firms principals might be able to adjust their workload and pick up the slack. for larger firms, the situation is more akin to a factory- without staff, you can't generate a product (aka the drawing set). one way to view them is simply as overhead, but it's a dumb simplification of what they actually generate, which is not costs but value.

Apr 10, 20 2:22 pm  · 
 · 
msparchitect

Dang Doc beat me to it. But by your description bad_hombre, your firm knows a good martini. You'd think Bob could spare some coin to keep staff on. Such a shame.

Apr 10, 20 3:59 pm  · 
 · 
revolutionary poet

If it is Bob, that's one of the best paid and benefit offices in the city. At 80 persons, figure they are saving $500k+ a month in salaries+benefits.

Apr 10, 20 6:06 pm  · 
 · 
zonker

thisisnotmyname

A lot of clients have decided to skip payment of invoices for work architects did in February and March. That kind of behavior puts impossible financial pressure on even the biggest practices.

This is makes to where firms have to lay off and keep their best people to work longer hours - 

Apr 9, 20 12:41 pm  · 
 · 
thisisnotmyname

And don't forget 20% pay cuts for the best people that don't get laid off.

Apr 9, 20 2:39 pm  · 
 · 
zonker

better than working for free as some are

Apr 9, 20 2:48 pm  · 
 · 
thisisnotmyname

That would be me! As principal, I'm not taking a salary this quarter while I wait around on client payments, PPP, EIDL, etc.

Apr 9, 20 3:03 pm  · 
 · 
Archinect

Have you been laid off? Furloughed? Cut back in pay or hours? Tell us in this 2-minute questionnaire...


Apr 9, 20 4:24 pm  · 
 · 
Dangermouse

50 person design build firm in NYC.


As of today, our entire fabrication team + CAD manager, office manager, receptionist, construction mangers and estimators have been laid off.  Currently, just over 50% of the team has been cut. Two junior designers laid off this week. 

All three of my projects are on hold.  A 100% DD set goes out today, then I have nothing on the schedule.    Fully expect to get a phone call from the managing partner this afternoon 

Apr 10, 20 2:08 pm  · 
 · 
square.

sounds like some tough decisions were made

Apr 10, 20 4:12 pm  · 
 · 
zonker

Balkins, Actually, and in the Bay Area, residential that has a minimum of 10% Below Market is allowed to proceed in construction - The firm I work for designs BMR housing and so far so good.

Apr 10, 20 5:00 pm  · 
 · 
zonker

It also depends on when Newsome lifts the stay home order too

Apr 10, 20 5:02 pm  · 
 · 
x-jla's comment has been hidden
x-jla

Republicans are really bad at science, and Democrats are really bad at math.  This crisis shows their complete shortcomings.  The media is a complete joke.  Fox obsession over providing the legitimacy of an obscure drug touted by lord Trump...and msnbc/cnn obsessed with it not working even though doctors are using it with moderate success.  Over inflated case fatality rates going completely unchecked.  The complete lack of common sense with regard to “opening the economy” on one side, and the complete lack of basic 3rd grade math regarding  “lack of testing” and the likelihood of a very biased denominator.  The economic toll this is taking is just unbelievable.  If it turns out that a large portion of the population is infected, and suffered mild-no symptoms, and the cfr is something around .2, the economic toll will likely cause more long term health damages.  We can see the connection of health and economics in the Bronx and NOLA.   We need random sampling NOW.   

Apr 10, 20 6:17 pm  · 
 · 
zonker

Exactly, Unemployed people lose their health insurance and won't go to the doctor anyway because it cost too much, get sick and soon you have an even greater order of magnitude of sick people

Apr 10, 20 6:32 pm  · 
 · 
revolutionary poet

you might be interested in Alex Berenson on this. https://twitter.com/AlexBerenson?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor

Apr 10, 20 6:34 pm  · 
 · 
archi_dude

The guy was trying to offer some hope and constantly said it was up the doctor to decide. He cut the red tape so people who were about to die could try it. Secondly, just have a hard time thinking these are rational directions - "We must lockdown the whole country and risk a new worse great depression for the entire world and completely eradicate democracy from the face of the earth for a few months." From the guy who also thinks we should never shake hands EVER again. "There will be 1 million deaths with social distancing, wait 200,000, wait 100,000 wait 60k, actually Stanfdord medical experts think this might have been mistaken for the flu in California earlier, but we cant lift lockdowns!" "I think there could be a minute, tiny chance you could catch this disease we dont know very much about from sea foam." Shut down all beaches in California, ticket people $1000 for watching the sunset. Are we really being rational here?

Apr 10, 20 9:25 pm  · 
 · 
x-jla

I know, through talking to my nurse sister, that 9/10 people who call in with symptoms are told to stay home and rest and only come in if xyz happens...that’s a huge portion of the population who is symptomatic enough to call in. Add the 25-50% of cases who have no symptoms...and another x amount of people who have very mild or selective symptoms...that can be a 20x lower cfr. In my state cfr is about 1.5%. If the number of infected is really 20x higher, that’s a cfr of .075. Lower than Flu. If that’s the truth, not saying it definitely is, then it’s not worth destroying people’s businesses over and ruining people’s livelihoods. We need some quick fucking scientific studies to figure this shit out before we do more damage.

Apr 10, 20 9:25 pm  · 
 · 
x-jla

Now because it’s novel, and very contagious, everyone gets sick at once and it appears worse maybe than it really is.

Apr 10, 20 9:27 pm  · 
 · 
archi_dude

Jlax, they did test an entire demographic before but it was ignored in the media. The death rate on the cruise ship Diamond Princess was .5% becuase they tested every person on board and quarantined all of them. Now keep in mind that's. 5% of a cruise ship demographic which sorry to stereotype but old, fat americans. So probably even lower for a general population.

Apr 10, 20 9:46 pm  · 
 · 
archi_dude

Sorry 0.5% incase that's mistaken for a 5

Apr 10, 20 9:47 pm  · 
 · 
sameolddoctor

They ARE doing random sampling here in LA.

Apr 10, 20 10:18 pm  · 
 · 
revolutionary poet
b3tadine[sutures]

We're not testing enough.

I have zero idea where your numbers are coming from.

Until we test at numbers that at a basic level that makes sense, we can't do what you're suggesting.

Again, testing.

Again; it's not about numbers of dying, it's about ability of hospitals to deal with the numbers of; sick, ICU, staff, PPE, respirators.

The economy; it can't handle if we don't bend this, if we go to early, we risk another catastrophe.


Apr 11, 20 12:05 am  · 
 · 
revolutionary poet's comment has been hidden
revolutionary poet

.

This is just a test.


Apr 10, 20 9:11 pm  · 
 · 
coopercooperco

Guess I should finally make an account after a decade of reading here.

Have heard that even firms as big as Gensler have done multiple rounds of layoffs already. Would think a firm that size would have finances better able to handle an emergency, but I suppose the hit to retail studios especially was just too hard to handle.

Am at a 50-100 person firm in NYC, and we've had to take a pay cut for April. Supposedly the higher-ups took more, but we were only told our individual percentages (20%). Have been there for a year as of last week, so we'll see how May goes. When they announced the pay cuts, they didn't take furloughs or lay-offs off the table; they said they were possible, but it would be on a month to month basis. My own project is mixed-use and in another state--so the design is still moving forward--but I imagine after a deadline later this month, it'll go on hold. 

Real disillusioning thing about this (and there's no shortage of things to choose from), is the complete lack of leadership at my own firm. They put off WFH for as long as possible, the owners even disparaging people for not coming into the office after NY enacted PAUSE, and have become even more demanding of everyone despite the pay cuts. Have been working weekends--due to senior staff sending comments at 11 on Friday or over the weekend and demanding to review Monday morning--and feels like a lot of the upper management are constantly lashing out at everyone else. Have been working for eight years and have never seen a work environment that is so unhealthy, which is harder to parse when that environment has leaked into your own home. 

Bleak profession. 

Apr 13, 20 9:25 am  · 
 · 
shellarchitect

that's no good.... I'm sure that behavior will be remembered when openings appear at other firms.  Hopefully things will start opening up again around the time of your next milestone.  

I'm fairly happy with the transparency of my firm, even though we've also had a 20% pay cut and 40% reduction in force.

Apr 13, 20 10:51 am  · 
 · 
CodesareFUN

I have to agree with shell here. Even though we’ve had layoffs and 20% paycuts, management has been pretty transparent with all of us and providing constant updates. Cooper, as soon as you can/the economy lets you...run. Don’t work for people like that.

Apr 13, 20 12:11 pm  · 
 · 

I was laid off on March 20th when my higher ed projects started going on hold.  https://www.reddit.com/r/architecture/comments/fxxli9/laid_off_or_know_someone_who_has_ask/

I would highly suggest becoming a member of the Architecture Lobby, a group making an effort to provide a Union for us: https://www.facebook.com/architecturelobby/

Also, if you're on Facebook or LinkedIn please feel free to request to join the A + D Industry [support group] where we aim to have sponsored happy hours and virtual meet and greets!

https://www.facebook.com/groups/527027667838189/

https://www.linkedin.com/groups/12394449/

Apr 13, 20 11:23 am  · 
 · 

Also, the Architecture Lobby is taking similar data for how firms are responding:

https://docs.google.com/forms/u/0/d/e/1FAIpQLSe3nDLM4MfyUyjXPSdOKOEtyFlJ6lgh_ZYu65f9_23sVgp4FA/formResponse

Apr 13, 20 11:34 am  · 
 · 

Autumn - I'm so sorry you were laid off. I would hope your employer didn't make the decision lightly. I am genuinely interested to know if you think a union would have protected your job?

Apr 13, 20 12:24 pm  · 
 · 
Non Sequitur

a union? not this dead horse argument again...

Apr 13, 20 12:30 pm  · 
 · 

Unions provide continued support during times of crisis (pandemic, war, famine), maintaining an active and educated work force for when we make it through to the other side and projects come back fast and furious. Unions can also carry health insurance so it's not just up to the firm. In going from large firms (Gensler/VOA/HOK, etc) with big corporate buying power to small firms (Smith Gill/SCB, etc) with no leverage for health insurance packages, I can say it would be a load off my mind to have that secured. I provided health insurance for myself and my family and now what? The Architecture Lobby also supports Medicare-for-all, which would negate this argument. That said, if we cannot acheive MFA then Union provided insurance would be worth my dues, IMHO. Unionization would also ensure that firms provide adequate staffing on projects, as well as capping aggressive schedules.  It can be a struggle to accommodate a 12 week process and yet I've been tasked with 10 and 8 week processes.  What happened in '08-'10 resulted in the bare bones staffing we see now and further promotes the 'work all hours because we promised the client we'd get it done in this amount of time' approach.  When I'm not billing all my worked hours to a project because the project budget can't afford it ... that's forced servitude.

Apr 13, 20 12:47 pm  · 
 · 
Non Sequitur

And where will you find the clients to pay for all these new union derived higher wages and benefits?

Apr 13, 20 12:55 pm  · 
 · 
square.

the same arguments have been made regarding minimum wage in places (in the us) that have recently raised it to $15/hr.. and low and behold the sky isn't falling; somehow employers have been able to pay the higher wages (before the current shit show)

Apr 13, 20 12:58 pm  · 
 · 

From TAL's site, which I suggest you check out if you have more questions as to "How": The dues structure is designed to be not prohibitive, and to ensure that the financial burden of Lobby projects is shared democratically. It is also our primary source of funding, so projects are directly dependent on membership. The new member dues fee schedule is as follows: Professional Membership: two-tenths of one percent of annual salary (ex.: if your salary is $50,000 a year, you would pay $100 a year). Student/Unemployed Membership: $25.00 base membership fee

Apr 13, 20 1:01 pm  · 
 · 
Non Sequitur's comment has been hidden
Non Sequitur

it's cute you think this works this way.

Apr 13, 20 1:24 pm  · 
 · 
wurdan freo

unions are great... worked on a hospital job several years ago. prevailing wage. 11 story mob so we had an elevator. think the guys could press the button to get to the floor they needed. no... needed a union operator for that... 3-4 guys pressing buttons on the elevator making 6 figures a year for 5 years... ton of value there. Extreme example of the inefficiency caused by the mandatory division of labor but it exists at all levels. wanna see housing costs double... make them union. Want a raise based on merit... Fuhgeddaboudit... looks good on you though.

Apr 13, 20 2:20 pm  · 
 · 
Non Sequitur

I can read between those lines well Wurdan. Ditto here too. Had one project cycle through one union strike after another (like they planned it). Added tens of millions to the cost and nearly 6 months of delays. The elevator "operator" is my favorite one tho.

Apr 13, 20 2:28 pm  · 
 · 
b3tadine[sutures]

Somehow, someway, I never see you people down playing the Union when they fought to get us this;

  1. Weekends Off: Massive union strikes in the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries led to shorter work weeks with weekends off. This allowed Americans to be home with loved ones instead of constantly working.
     
  2. Paid Vacations: With summer coming to a close, take time to thank your union for the paid vacation time that made it possible to rest and relax with your family.
     
  3. Family & Medical Leave Act (FMLA): Unions spearheaded the fight that resulted in the passage of this law that gives eligible employees the right to take up to 12 weeks of job-protected unpaid leave annually for family and medical reasons.
     
  4. Breaks at Work—Including Lunch: Although they are now federally mandated, breaks haven't always been an employee right. Studies have shown, breaks provide important rest periods that improve safety and productivity.
     
  5. Sick Leave: Without paid sick leave, many workers couldn't afford to take the time necessary to recover from illnesses and accidents.
     
  6. Paid Holidays: Labor Day is one of nine paid holidays offered by most employers in the U.S. As you spend time with family and friends this Labor Day, thank your union.
     
  7. Military Leave: The Uniformed Services Employment and Reemployment Rights Act ensures those that serve their country can keep civilian employment and benefits, and seek employment free from discrimination.
     
  8. 40-hour Work Week: Americans once worked 60 hours a week or more. It wasn't until the 1950's that 40-hour work weeks and 8-hour work days became standard across America thanks to union negotiations.

https://www.unionplus.org/blog/union-made/eight-reasons-thank-unions


Apr 13, 20 2:31 pm  · 
 · 
square.

^ this. it's easy to cherry-pick the problems with things, but we have much to thank for unions. i have many family members and friends who are/were teachers, and thanks to their unions they are living a comfortable life in retirement with great healthcare and nice pensions, unlike me who will be working well into their 70s with my paltry 401k. the self abuse of people entrenched in this profession never ceases to amaze me. it's the select few boot-lickers who "make it" close enough to the top that feel like they have some strange obligation to protect the interests of their clients who are giving them some breadcrumbs of their wealth, instead of looking out for the interest of the profession on a whole. what's good for those at the bottom is good for everyone.

Apr 13, 20 2:41 pm  · 
 · 
Non Sequitur

Beta, I don't ignore the historical contributions. What I do not believe in is further alienation of young graduates from the realities of the profession by claiming unions will solve all their problems. The unions serve their purpose with low-level, low-ceiling disposable staff with large market shares. Architecture is a luxury product, not a fast-food burger. Very few people are buying our services and that number will drop greatly once unions step in and get their share of the fees collected.

Apr 13, 20 2:43 pm  · 
 · 
b3tadine[sutures]

Unions don't solve "all" problems, but they do buy an increasingly disenfranchised architect/graduate a seat at the table. Too often firms make decisions in the best interest of "The Firm" yet no one is making decisions in the best interest of those they employ, and that in a nut shell is a reason for unionization. I'm not talking about all firms, as not all companies have union employees, only those that seek to exploit labor.

Apr 13, 20 2:53 pm  · 
 · 
Non Sequitur

So Beta, looking at this another way, are you suggesting that in your scenario, an office with a unionized production staff pool is indicative of a badly managed workplace?

Apr 13, 20 3:11 pm  · 
 · 
b3tadine[sutures]

Not sure I follow, however, looking at this from your scenario; are you suggesting that high-tech skilled labor, isn't worth a pot to piss in? Put another way, I don't care - some, if not many do - what graduates don't know, that's trainable, I care about what they do know. Now, you might tell me Old Man Ford knew fuck all about cars, but Carol Shelby and Ken what's his name knew about racing, and the guy on the line knew more about fuel injection, and how to get a shit ton of horsepower out of a shitty Ford.

So you tell me; who built Ford again?

Apr 13, 20 3:20 pm  · 
 · 
Non Sequitur

I don't know. I drive a toyota sedan. It's black if that's relevant. What I meant was that these is a limit to what you can push the private sector to do.

Apr 13, 20 3:29 pm  · 
 · 
b3tadine[sutures]

It would seem the "profession" is on a precipice, and not because of this event, it's been there for a good long while. They thought perhaps we'll make better architects, by demanding NAAB, NCARB, and AIA do better. More integrated studios, streamlined testing, IDP, make member firms pay for architects not in the AIA - incentivizing membership, by paying for younger member fees - but none of that is stemming the crisis they've been talking about for years; lack of people joining the profession. No. None of that is working. Promises to attract women, black architects? Nope, not working. 

What would work? More, early investment, by younger professionals, with more flexibility in schedules, WFH, more employee owned, or more non-managerial staff at the decision tables. Leaders can lead, if they allow younger staff - not all staff, we all work with completely spoon-fed wet noodles - to lead. Change needs to be mandated from the top, and let younger staff charge the hill.

Apr 13, 20 3:44 pm  · 
 · 
archi_dude's comment has been hidden
archi_dude

Considering beta was attacking any member that didnt agree with her wanting to nationalize empty CBRE properties a few weeks ago and now field hospitals are being taken down countrywide without treating a single patient....this opinion taken with a HUGE grain of salt.

Apr 13, 20 5:27 pm  · 
 · 
b3tadine[sutures]'s comment has been hidden
b3tadine[sutures]

what's this thing i was against a few weeks ago? show me.

Apr 13, 20 5:30 pm  · 
 · 
wurdan freo

A-rchitects alienated themselves when they decided they wanted to be professionals like doctors and lawyers and distanced themselves from the trades. You want to make money in this field and provide a secure future for your family, forget about the elitest design bullshit you learn in school. Get your hands dirty in the trenches and learn to provide real value. A client will always value a person more if they can tell them how much something will cost than a person who can talk in circles above their head while pontificating the differences between bifurcation and the tartan grid and how critical that will be to achieving a harmonious bathroom layout. (not saying design doesn't have a place) No amount of unionizing will elevate the value that an architect can bring to a project or project team. Thankful for unions that fought and died 100 years ago... they served their purpose... created balanced laws... now go away.

Apr 13, 20 5:49 pm  · 
 · 
b3tadine[sutures]

Most of the architects posting in here, don't hold their pinky extended when drinking tea, so I have zero fucking clue about what you speak. Most architects here know how to speak to their clients like human beings.

Apr 13, 20 5:57 pm  · 
 · 
mightyaa

Agreed Wurdan. I personally blame the AIA. It slowly shifted the concept of architect as a ‘master builder’ who knows how buildings go together to focus on just ‘design’ thus painting a tiara on our brows as pageant queens rather than dirt under our fingernails sorts. Additionally, the AIA got busted for anti-trust trying to set how architects conduct business. So there is case law now on bargaining as architects. To complicate even more, it is difficult to unionize “professional employees”, of which architects are as licensed professionals with specialized knowledge. Unions are sort of for blue-collar non-management positions to collectively push back on management as a group. So more likely than not, any attempt to unionize would be seen as anti-trust collusion violations against the free-market.

Apr 13, 20 7:24 pm  · 
 · 
b3tadine[sutures]

Recent grads, area not licensed, and not professionals, they're labor. Many don't want to be architects, licensed professionals. They should be allowed to collectively bargain for their rights.

Apr 13, 20 7:36 pm  · 
 · 
b3tadine[sutures]

.

Apr 13, 20 7:37 pm  · 
 · 
square.

mighty- teachers and nurses are typically in unions, so the “blue collar” stereotype is off. you're also seeing more tech workers begin to unionize. but the push against management is correct, which is why production staff needs to organize against management which clearly, by the posts on this thread, does not value it.

Apr 13, 20 8:25 pm  · 
 · 
b3tadine[sutures]

archi-dude? only an idiotic trumper type would actually be decrying the field hospitals being dismantled, especially when that means, sheltering in place is working, and the curve is being flattened. you're like those idiots arguing that my governor will have something to answer for, if there aren't 50k dead in our state. as moronic as wanting to end a shut-down because people aren't dying in higher numbers, oh wait, that's the same thing.

Apr 13, 20 8:35 pm  · 
 · 
archi_dude

I think empty hospital ships and empty field hospitals are enough to show your hysteria on your hysteria thread central was just that. Also, the flattening started happening on the 31st, 2 weeks after most states were still business as usual with voluntary work from home, handwashing and less handshaking. And yeah, there is something to answer for when your actions based on hysteria thrust millions into joblessness.

Apr 13, 20 11:44 pm  · 
 · 
b3tadine[sutures]

Meh, maths and science demonstrate you don't know what the fuck you are talking about.

Apr 14, 20 7:29 am  · 
 · 
b3tadine[sutures]

I don't know if "archi"-dude can read charts, but from my measure, the real start of the UP curve actually started on 3/31.

Apr 14, 20 8:07 am  · 
 · 
archi_dude

You plotted deaths. Which carry an additional lag after a positive test. The accepted lag from infection to detection was on average about 2 weeks. The slowdown started on 3/31

Apr 14, 20 8:21 am  · 
 · 
archi_dude

Regardless, doesnt really matter as the western governors and Cuomo seemed to have realized the models were way off. Switched their tune real fast this week to make it look like they are champions of opening up.

Apr 14, 20 8:37 am  · 
 · 
b3tadine[sutures]

No, I plotted confirmed and deaths.

Look, I know you can't read charts, or graphs, but the first two I posted, do you see that swath of color? That swath of color, as I understand it, is because we aren't doing enough testing, so the true reality of the "projections" can never really be measured, and as new - often latent - data comes in, the graphs change. Maths, and sciences.

Apr 14, 20 8:47 am  · 
 · 
b3tadine[sutures]

.

Apr 14, 20 9:07 am  · 
 · 
archi_dude

No you are arguing stats. The experts have stated "we dont know." To almost every question about spread, death rates, symptoms ect. So not math and sciences speculations. And clearly the speculations were overblown in most scenarios, not all, it's a good idea to extend controls in places that are heavily served by public transport and really high density. However full facist style lockdowns countrywide in rural, suburban and as california has shown, car centric locales, unnecessary and creating way more issues then they are solving. Also source for slowdowns, NY Times casetracker was very clear when slowdowns happened per state.

Apr 14, 20 9:13 am  · 
 · 
b3tadine[sutures]

No, you make "speculations" sound if it's Tarot card readings, when every single scientist, medical professional, statistician , maths people have stated the same thing; as more data, more testing have come on line, the data changes. you, are clearly only listening to the myopic idiots running the fed.

Apr 14, 20 10:08 am  · 
 · 
Autumn Godwin-Hoffmeier's comment has been hidden

love the ignore setting xoxo

Apr 13, 20 1:31 pm  · 
 · 
Non Sequitur

enjoy the ignorance.

Apr 13, 20 1:33 pm  · 
 · 
archi_dude

Ah great debating skills, that will really help you win over people to support your idea. Kind of shows why you rely on a union to land a good paying job with work life balance.

Apr 13, 20 5:25 pm  · 
 · 
SneakyPete

cheap shot, dude.

Apr 14, 20 3:43 pm  · 
 · 
Volunteer's comment has been hidden
Volunteer

The guilds you belong to, the AIA and NCARB, don't do anything but feather their own nest. I'm sure this one, with its left-of-Lenin mindset,  will be different. 

Apr 13, 20 2:32 pm  · 
 · 
wurdan freo

word.

Apr 13, 20 5:49 pm  · 
 · 
drums please, Fab?

2 yo' MUTHA!

Apr 13, 20 9:49 pm  · 
 · 
zonker's comment has been hidden
zonker

Architecture with Unions?, payin fees to some Jimmy Hoffa?, no way

Apr 13, 20 2:46 pm  · 
 · 
b3tadine[sutures]

Narrow-mindedness is what got Jimmy, got.

Apr 13, 20 2:54 pm  · 
 · 
b3tadine[sutures]

And you ask why we need TAL...

I find this graphic compelling, and definitely a big reason why we need The Architecture Lobby. 32-33% of member firms, believe that their labor force, is expendable. It's likely telling that that same number represents firms, who support opening the country back up, fuck whatever that "deep state mole" tells us. 


Apr 13, 20 5:19 pm  · 
 · 

where does the graphic say people are expendable? i see 1% saying they've started layoffs and 17% considering that or furloughs. i'm more surprised both of those aren't higher.

Apr 13, 20 6:09 pm  · 
 · 
b3tadine[sutures]

Greg, I worked for three weeks while the sole proprietor dilly-dalied around, waiting for the governor to tell us to stay home. He didn't believe that we could remain productive. In those three weeks I was stressing out, one for my own health, but two because someone in our office had conditions making them more likely than not to get COVID. So, in referring to the 32% that are still working on the office. The 33% are those idiots still having in person meetings. Those firms are the ones that I am referring to. These are the irresponsible firms.

Apr 13, 20 6:43 pm  · 
 · 
thisisnotmyname

@Gregory, It's a little early for the staff reductions to get going. I think a spike in layoffs and furloughs is possible in the coming 3-6 weeks as pre-COVID workload is completed, no new work comes in, and PPP and EIDL money doesn't show up soon enough.

Apr 13, 20 6:55 pm  · 
 · 
mightyaa

I see it. Like my firm acts like it is doing me a huge favor by labeling me and my co-workers as ‘essential’ so we can come into the office as though nothing is going on. They paint it as we’re lucky to be working during these times. They tried rotating staff every other day teleworking for two-weeks. This morning they said ‘billings are down, quality is down, and so everyone needs to be in the office working: no more teleworking.’ My health is not their primary concern and expendable; a hit to their invoicing is not as expendable. Additionally, whether we are in the office or not, judging pandemic billings versus boom billings and blaming teleworking as the primary culprit for the difference is pretty shitty.

Apr 13, 20 7:43 pm  · 
 · 

the way I see it either:

1) you have low cash flow and due to the virus you needed to layoff or furlough fairly quickly (possibly a young firm)

or

2) you have made a lot of profit (old firm), so you could carry the firm financially for a bit, but now see a great opportunity to trim the fat and layoff the "unwanted" employees, not necessarily expendable the "unwanted" (they may be people the firm just doesn't like).

Apr 14, 20 7:48 am  · 
 · 
shellarchitect

mightyaa, are you still an independent contractor at your firm? I thought I read that at one time

Apr 14, 20 8:49 am  · 
 · 
square.

to add to ancient- 2b) shed the "unwanted" employees who's wages have finally started rising, realizing at the same time the crisis is producing a graduating class of terrified potential new employees who will take whatever low-ball salary you offer them. but yeah, we don't need more worker protections.

Apr 14, 20 9:17 am  · 
 · 
mightyaa

@shell; I was with my previous gig. For the last 2 though I'm salary working for a engineering firm.

Apr 14, 20 10:17 am  · 
 · 

@b3ta - i'm not sure i'd read those stats the same way but i do feel for you personal situation and agree - if the boss wasn't moving to make this happen, shame on them. i will say for us, at 10 people, it took a week to get everything set up so the office could go full remote. mostly software and some hardware and a lot of coordination. but we managed.

Apr 14, 20 12:11 pm  · 
 · 

@thisis - my personal take is it totally depends on the firm. if you're a 20-50 person firm (for example) and 40% of your projected revenue dried up in the last few weeks and you don't see how it will be replaced over the next 6 months? you're not holding people for another 3-6 weeks just to wait and see. a lot of firms did exactly that back in 08/09 and ended up in serious financial trouble (with at least a half dozen in atlanta folding up shop by 2012). i think firms are much more wary about borrowing just to hold on to staff. salary reductions can also only go so far.

Apr 14, 20 12:14 pm  · 
 · 

to put some of the financials in perspective, let's take a 20 person firm that's middle of the road (profitability, salary, etc. wise): that firm is probably doing 4M a year in gross revenue (including all pass through income - your consultants, etc). 2 principals, 2 administrative staff, 16 architectural staff with a range of experiences. in a mid-tier city rent wise (minneapolis, houston, atlanta, etc). your net revenue is probably closer to 2.8-3M. your profitability is probably close to 20%. meaning, on that 3M, you cleared 600k in profit. that gets distributed however among the owners and staff but let's say each staff person got an average of 6k bonus. That leaves us with two sets of numbers: a potential savings of just under 500k, which (because this is likely to be an LLP or LLC) means it's been taxed as personal income in the past year with a tax rate of 25%. That leaves 370k in reserve, assuming the partners took zero bonus. On the flip side, the annual monthly expenses for the firm is approximately 200k. About 75% of this will be everyone's salaries, the balance being rent, insurance, everything else. So: our firm has to make 200k a month in net revenue to break even. If there's a 25% drop in revenue, our profitability is totally wiped out and we're 5% in the negative (actual losses). Keep adding on to the actual losses for every % the revenue drops. A 5% actual loss probably means losing 2 of the 16 people. A 10% actual loss probably means 4.

Apr 14, 20 12:26 pm  · 
 · 

In the above - in the unlikely event the partner's took a zero bonus, they'd have (in theory) enough to cover a 25% drop in revenue, assuming they'd put it all there and keep everyone's salary whole. and, yes, you could do a 5-10% salary reduction. there's options for sure. but if you get to a point where your revenue drops 40% or more and you can't guarantee it will come back within 3 months... you're going to have to lay people off.

Apr 14, 20 12:29 pm  · 
 · 
Chad Miller

Very clear and concise explanation. Thank you for that.

Apr 14, 20 12:30 pm  · 
 · 
gibbost

With 2008/09 fresh in everyone's mind, I'd like to think that smart firms have been squirreling away cash during the boom we've seen the last 5 years. Financial experts tell me personally to have 3-6 months of savings on hand for my family--i'd say that's sound advice for small businesses too. So far, my firm has communicated to the staff that we can weather 3-6 months of disruption--which has been reassuring.

Apr 14, 20 12:31 pm  · 
 · 

@gibbost - perhaps. it isn't that easy to do. and there's a real question in that: would you burn out all your savings to save all your staff for 6 months? when the work isn't there and there's no real sense of if/when it will return? if you do, that's 5 years of savings gone and you've put the firm at a real risk of being vulnerable to any further disruptions over the following 6-12 months. i just don't seem many firms making that decision.

Apr 14, 20 1:06 pm  · 
 · 
gibbost

Greg, that's the business we're in. That's the gamble we all take--as an employee and as a firm owner. It's difficult to project out more than 6 months even when the economy is good. I understand the challenges owners face and none of us have a crystal ball. But just as I would totally burn thru my own savings to keep the lights on here at home (in lieu of that vacation we all wanted to take next year)--I'm hoping that firms are doing everything they possibly can to keep their most valuable resource. What is the point of savings if not for a time like this?

Apr 14, 20 1:19 pm  · 
 · 

The problem with Unions in Architecture is they would be at odds with firm survival in some key instances. We, most of us, need to have firms to work for no individual has the capacity to design an airport or Tesla Ventilator factory on their own. Unions make reducing staff and cutting wages and expenses in the interest of keeping the whole firm going very difficult.

Apr 14, 20 2:56 pm  · 
 · 
square.

i suppose this is the issue at hand. if you view this through the lens of owners, then of course you will think that it is at odds with its "survival," since it will indeed be the owners/management surviving any layoffs and reductions. on the other hand, if you view it through the lends of workers, then you tend to think that they are actually what makes the firms survival possible, hence getting the axe first seems a bit unfair. i actually favor cooperative firm ownership before unions, though; because a) most firms are small operations and b) it recognizes that architecture is a team discipline, both internally and externally, and that even if you are just "production," you deserve some stake (in some proportional way, of course) because without making what you produce (drawing sets), the firm is nothing.

Apr 14, 20 3:26 pm  · 
 · 
sameolddoctor

No architecture is "essential", unless you are doing healthcare projects. Report your fuckhead boss.

Apr 14, 20 3:38 pm  · 
 · 
revolutionary poet's comment has been hidden
revolutionary poet

Expendables (all black wearing mainly dude organization - architects)

Sylvester Stallone Is Bringing The Expendables Back And Sending ...

Apr 13, 20 9:09 pm  · 
 · 
drums please, Fab?

i see beta!

Apr 13, 20 9:50 pm  · 
 · 
b3tadine[sutures]

.

Apr 13, 20 9:53 pm  · 
 · 

dude I'm in front of you a few rows


Apr 13, 20 10:07 pm  · 
 · 
CodesareFUN

Where’s
Balkins?

Apr 14, 20 12:08 am  · 
 · 
Non Sequitur

balkins gets Harrison Ford? Who agreed to that?

Apr 14, 20 7:37 am  · 
 · 
CodesareFUN

That ain’t it Balkins.

Apr 14, 20 10:04 am  · 
 · 
Chad Miller

Who do I get?

Apr 14, 20 12:25 pm  · 
 · 
citizen

Shouldn't Helen Mirren be in there somewhere?

Apr 14, 20 12:43 pm  · 
 · 
Chad Miller

Also John Malkovich.

Apr 14, 20 12:59 pm  · 
 · 
Chad Miller

Naw, NS doesn't like gunzs. I suppose he could just use sharp things and throw bottles of maple syrup at villans.

Apr 14, 20 1:26 pm  · 
 · 
Non Sequitur

^Folks, mark your calendars, Today I agree with Balkins.

Apr 14, 20 1:27 pm  · 
 · 
Chad Miller

You'll need gunzs to be Ryan Reynods. Also hair.

Apr 14, 20 2:24 pm  · 
 · 
tduds

Well we know which one is Donna.

Apr 14, 20 2:41 pm  · 
 · 
Non Sequitur

My luscious mane will do just fine.

Apr 14, 20 2:45 pm  · 
 · 
citizen

^ good pseudonym: Luscious Mane.

Apr 14, 20 3:11 pm  · 
 · 
Chad Miller

Villains: "oh god no, it's LUSCIOUS MANE here to whoop our asses!"

Apr 14, 20 4:53 pm  · 
 · 
citizen

Porn star or super villain... or both!

Apr 14, 20 5:52 pm  · 
 · 

haha, NS and Citizen...Question is where is Chuck Norris? (in this photo) I think only FLW gets to be Chuck Norris?

Chuck Norris cleaning up “The Expendables 2” for PG-13? [Updated ...

Apr 14, 20 6:20 pm  · 
 · 
CodesareFUN

Bjarke Ingels is Chuck Norris

Apr 14, 20 6:21 pm  · 
 · 

the Lone Wolf, I see...haha

Apr 14, 20 7:57 pm  · 
 · 
b3tadine[sutures]

Mr. Bean is Bjarke


Apr 14, 20 8:03 pm  · 
 · 
randomised

.


Apr 14, 20 8:46 pm  · 
 · 
Non Sequitur

This is a brilliant diversion. Missing from the expendable pic are those from the first 2 films: the muscles from Brussels, stone cold Steve Auston, and of course, the one and only Bruce Willis. Mickey Rourke also plays a colourfull chap.

Apr 14, 20 9:01 pm  · 
 · 
MrlwDesigns
Been a lurker for a while... The Alphabet ‘employee owned’ firm I worked for just dumped 1/3 of their staff today. No warning.

I was doing CA on one project and starting DDs on a development that was moving forward, plus BIM management, dynamo development, and a ton of ‘after hours’ unpaid stuff to increase productivity in a competitive market, while being the only person around to answer a support call past 5pm. Suddenly, I’m not.

So now, off to the breadline I guess.
Apr 14, 20 7:58 pm  · 
 · 
b3tadine[sutures]

LA or Minneapolis?

Apr 14, 20 8:05 pm  · 
 · 
MrlwDesigns

Minneapolis

Apr 14, 20 9:19 pm  · 
 · 
liberty bell

Yikes, JMArch. Thanks for sharing but yes this is scary. Hang in there!

Apr 15, 20 9:22 am  · 
 · 
square.

sorry to hear that. just goes to show, that while your efforts to put in extra time and energy were noble, at the end of the day the company doesn't care and will do what's "best" for the company.. which is why employees should always do what's best for them.

Apr 15, 20 12:06 pm  · 
 · 
sameolddoctor

Just mention the name JMArch. They didnt give a shit about your extra efforts, and now you are trying to protect them? SMH

Apr 15, 20 1:51 pm  · 
 · 
MrlwDesigns
I should’ve included - it was 480 people that got let go.
Apr 14, 20 8:00 pm  · 
 · 
Black_Orchid

480 People in total? Or just the Minn. office? Sorry to hear...

Apr 14, 20 11:53 pm  · 
 · 
tintt

So sorry.

Apr 15, 20 12:09 am  · 
 · 
MrlwDesigns

480 total. Monday I think that they had 1,300 across all offices. Going to be a little interesting in the coming weeks for whoever is left. 

Apr 15, 20 12:34 am  · 
 · 
zg_a

Which firm was it?

Apr 15, 20 12:38 am  · 
 · 
Chad Miller

Well the top three biggest firms in Minneapolis are Nelson, HGA, and RSP. I'd say any one or all of those firms are laying off large numbers of people right now.

Apr 15, 20 10:45 am  · 
 · 
b3tadine[sutures]

You forgot one, three vowels, two consonants.

Apr 15, 20 11:25 am  · 
 · 
Chad Miller

You'll have to narrow it down a bit. I've never practiced in Minneapolis and haven't lived in MN for six years.


Also I said top three, not top four.  8-)

Apr 15, 20 11:28 am  · 
 · 
b3tadine[sutures]

They used to be THE firm in MPLS - Ellerbe Becket

Apr 15, 20 11:32 am  · 
 · 
Chad Miller

Oh, AECOM. Haven't really followed their work.

Apr 15, 20 11:36 am  · 
 · 
midlander

i thought this was about DLR... i hear they've done a big layoff too.

Apr 15, 20 12:19 pm  · 
 · 
Chad Miller

DLR, HGA, Nelson, RSP, they are all laying off a lot of people. They tend to have the practice of hire and fire based on work load so this isn't a surprise to me.

Apr 15, 20 12:56 pm  · 
 · 
SneakyPete

HKS, too

Apr 15, 20 10:48 pm  · 
 · 
MrlwDesigns

Geez, I didn't think this was going to become a thing... I wasn't attempting to protect anyone - just acting with a little professional discretion. It's sucking pretty hard for all of us right now. It was DLR that pulled the trigger, not that that matters now. There are other firms in the area that did this the day that quarantine was announced. Cash has stopped flowing, projects are pushed out 3-4 months, existing fees are going uncollected (on par with the way that the profession generally operates)... backlog evaporates, current workload gets cut in half - and I apparently was mistaken that being able to self-perform projects from inception to completion + development of automation tools on the side was a marketable commodity. Oops. Time to polish the Python skills and start rebuilding my lapsed consulting career from '08 + '09.

Apr 17, 20 7:19 pm  · 
 · 
sameolddoctor's comment has been hidden
sameolddoctor

Also, to act super woke like other archinecters, Thank you China.

Apr 15, 20 1:52 pm  · 
 · 
x-jla

Let me correct that, Fuck your China

Apr 15, 20 2:13 pm  · 
 · 
x-jla

Wuhan virus ruined world....WHO was propaganda parrot for China. Need a version of the CIA that spy’s on infectious disease like they do for terrorism. Need to spy on China hardcore after this shit and completely close all travel to and from until the Govt allows in inspectors (like we did with Iran and NK nuclear programs)

Apr 15, 20 2:16 pm  · 
 · 
SneakyPete

Also, to act super dumb like other archinecters, (insert bad hot-take here)

Apr 15, 20 2:16 pm  · 
 · 
x-jla

Media hot-take good when about trump being bad, bad when about China being bad because that’s racist because China has lots of Chinese people in it and some rich white Americans were mean to Chinese people in the 1800’s. Can I get a woke badge for that please?

Apr 15, 20 2:28 pm  · 
 · 
x-jla

Why can’t you dummies criticize the Chinese government? Are you that ideologically invested in the last hold out of communism’s success?

Apr 15, 20 2:29 pm  · 
 · 
curtkram

do you get all your news from reddit jla?

Apr 15, 20 2:30 pm  · 
 · 
x-jla

The second post up was written with a Russian accent. If you read it like that it sounds better

Apr 15, 20 2:30 pm  · 
 · 
x-jla

I’m not Russian, just sometimes think in a Russian accent.

Apr 15, 20 2:31 pm  · 
 · 
x-jla

Curt, no, it’s common sense that China lied big time. No fucking way in the devils asshole did such a highly infectious disease not spread like fire through the dense cities of China when 5 million people left Wuhan while it was spreading. No possible way. It’s well known now that they hid the truth, made some docs disappear (likely) and greatly underreported cases...but what really puzzles me is why they hid the known fact that there were a large amount of asymptotic cases....that’s what makes me wonder. If they wanted to play down the death rate, they could have included those and cut it in half....but they didn’t. They hid that important fact. Why would they want to do that? Think about that.

Apr 15, 20 2:39 pm  · 
 · 
x-jla

They also let people travel the world for at least a month while they knew about this virus and hid it. They are either malicious or responsible for great negligence. Either way, doesn’t matter. Effects are the same.

Apr 15, 20 2:43 pm  · 
 · 
x-jla

And the WHO was either ineffective, complacent, or completely ignorant. Again, doesn’t matter. Same effect.

Apr 15, 20 2:44 pm  · 
 · 
x-jla

Comments hidden. Lol. So change word China to America and I bet the comments wouldn’t be hidden. They would be celebrated.

Apr 15, 20 2:46 pm  · 
 · 
tduds

1) China is an authoritarian nation & that culture of authoritarianism absolutely exacerbated this crisis. 

2) This criticism also applies to the US. 

3) While technically not wrong, harping on the failures of the CCP diverts energy toward punishment and sows division rather than cooperation toward a common solution. Pointing fingers will only prolong the crisis. 

4) Insisting on using a geographically-based term, while not inherently racist, fuels already rising anti-Asian sentiment in the US and elsewhere. 

5) Pretending that criticism of 3 and 4 is an endorsement of China and/or communism is transparently fallacious at best and a bad faith deflection at worst.

Apr 15, 20 2:52 pm  · 
 · 
x-jla

#4 is completely ridiculous. Lyme disease, Ebola, Zika, Hong Kong flu, Spanish flu, etc etc etc. Bullshit PR stunt by WHO and China. Not a big deal, but really highlights and helps the Chinese states PR efforts to comply with this ridiculous line of thought.

Apr 15, 20 2:59 pm  · 
 · 
x-jla

Diseases are named after places for a good reason. The conditions of their place of origin contributes to the emergence of the disease (natural or man made)

Apr 15, 20 3:00 pm  · 
 · 
x-jla

I remember very early on there was a push to rebrand the naming something that has no mention of China.

Apr 15, 20 3:02 pm  · 
 · 
sameolddoctor

jla, better to be sarcastic around here. Thank you China for giving us all of this time at home with our loved ones and for decimating our economy. Thank you China for the bright blue skies too!

Apr 15, 20 3:12 pm  · 
 · 
x-jla

#3 figure out who cannot be trusted to avoid future problems. Figure out who’s lying to avoid making decisions based on bad data. Hold parties accountable so that they don’t do again. You do realize that authoritarian states like China, NK, Russia, only understand one thing...reward and punishment. They act out of self interest. Sanctions and economic deals is how we handle them...that’s all they understand. They don’t negotiate out of good will. They are strong arm states. Again, this all has absolutely nothing whatsoever to do with the Chinese people in China or abroad. Nothing at all. This is a criticism of the Chinese government’s actions that hurt the world along with the Chinese people.

Apr 15, 20 3:14 pm  · 
 · 
x-jla

same olddoctor, oh yes! Thank you China and congratulations on success of being coronavirus free. Must be a very very good system. Far superior than rest of world.

Apr 15, 20 3:18 pm  · 
 · 
tduds

Yes of course the WHO conspired with China to absolve them of blame for this disease. Also they did it 4 1/2 years prior to the outbreak. Masterful move.


Apr 15, 20 3:26 pm  · 
 · 
tduds

It doesn't matter if you personally are racist. By saying the things that racists also say, you give them cover and justification. I've lost count of how many times I've tried to explain this in various threads around this forum but at this point I have to assume you're deliberately misunderstanding.

Apr 15, 20 3:29 pm  · 
 · 
x-jla

Is it racist to suggest that the state department had concerns about the safety of the bio lab in Wuhan where they study bat coronavirus and the new information that bats aren’t really sold in those wet markets? I don’t understand how racism comes into play here. Are people from the town of Lyme Connecticut persecuted for Lyme disease?

Apr 15, 20 3:35 pm  · 
 · 
x-jla

what if we discover that it was actually lab made? Do we still have to not link it to China? Should we call North Korean nukes just nukes? Should we call “the Italian mafia” the “mafia equally likely to be from anywhere”?

Apr 15, 20 3:40 pm  · 
 · 
x-jla

The conditions of place lead to the emergence of particular things. Ignoring the place of origin to spare some bystanders the racial slurs from toothless hillbillies is completely asinine and dishonest.

Apr 15, 20 3:41 pm  · 
 · 
x-jla

Whether this came from a market, or a lab, it’s still “man made”. Pangolins, bats,
and humans don’t play together in nature.

Apr 15, 20 3:43 pm  · 
 · 
x-jla

Whether caused by hunting Bush meat along the Ebola river, prancing around in tall grass in the town of Lyme, or playing with bat viruses in Wuhan, these diseases are linked to specific natural, cultural, and political, conditions. Obscuring that reality does no good.

Apr 15, 20 3:47 pm  · 
 · 
tduds

Take it up with the WHO. I've said all I care to.

Apr 15, 20 3:48 pm  · 
 · 
SneakyPete

if you use the ignore feature, jla-x is relegated to the echo chamber where he feels most at home.

Apr 15, 20 10:47 pm  · 
 · 
x-jla

Seems like I’ve been dampening your echo chamber.

Apr 16, 20 2:23 am  · 
 · 
x-jla

Mission complete, RB called me an asshole.

Apr 16, 20 10:24 am  · 
 · 
x-jla

Solution, cut Chinese travel off indefinitely until they allow a US UN convoy into their country to study and monitor infectious diseases. Not WHO.

Apr 16, 20 2:51 pm  · 
 · 
x-jla

If this was something as deadly as bird flu, it would be the end of the world.

Apr 16, 20 2:52 pm  · 
 · 
x-jla

Can’t trust their word on matters this serious.

Apr 16, 20 2:53 pm  · 
 · 
Catcow

I've been away from the office for 3 weeks now, and as of about two weeks been furloughed. Many of my office's projects clients are hospitality and restaurants, so... this situation is of no shock to us.

Apr 16, 20 10:43 am  · 
 · 
thisisnotmyname

Well, since PPP money has run out and a whopping 4% of EIDLs have actually been paid out,  we'll all be seeing plenty more layoffs in the coming weeks.

Apr 16, 20 2:01 pm  · 
 · 
joseffischer

The last 3 efforts I've done (all post Covid-19) are all what I'd consider "hustle" work, that if I were such a person, I'd moonlight on. They all exist solely because they're visible enough that a permit is needed, and they all involve a "hide these things" non-permitted construction phase. Last time I tried to whistle blow this stuff more officially, the city ignored it and I got a lot of flack for it. Now, we're in the process of becoming 3rd party inspectors, since the city won't be doing inspections.

I'm seriously wondering how it's supposed to work when we get to the part where I'm supposed to inspect something knowing what's behind that wall.  Maybe the higher ups will send someone else in the office?  If they send me, I'm definitely going to flag it... though that might be moot anyway since all we're getting is crumbs right now and I'm sure my previous history of integrity won't be looked at brightly in the coming quarters.

Apr 16, 20 2:28 pm  · 
 · 
Chad Miller

thisisnotmyname - where did you find this information about the PPP money running out and only 4% being paid out?

Apr 16, 20 2:46 pm  · 
 · 
x-jla's comment has been hidden
x-jla

What, the gov ran out of money 1 month into socialism? What a shocker!

Apr 16, 20 2:47 pm  · 
 · 
thisisnotmyname's comment has been hidden
thisisnotmyname

@jla-x Not even one month, more like two weeks.

Apr 16, 20 3:09 pm  · 
 · 
Volunteer's comment has been hidden
Volunteer

Nancy Pelosi, eating gourmet ice cream in Napa, and Chuckie Schumer said "No" without the tounch-feely 'green new deal' nonsense being added to a supplemental appropriation.

Apr 16, 20 3:16 pm  · 
 · 
x-jla's comment has been hidden
x-jla

Pelosi and Schumer should resign. They are despicable.

Apr 16, 20 3:25 pm  · 
 · 
tduds's comment has been hidden
tduds

Seems more like an executive failure to me. Unsurprising.

Apr 16, 20 3:45 pm  · 
 · 
Volunteer's comment has been hidden
Volunteer

The House has to sign off on the bill. The minority leader of the House, Kevin McCarthy, the majority leader of the Senate, Mitch McConnell, and the President are ready to sign. It should have been signed several days ago and would have been absent the excretable Pelosi. She is concerned about global warming. Your kids can wait - they probably don't need to eat too often.

Apr 16, 20 3:56 pm  · 
 · 
sameolddoctor's comment has been hidden
sameolddoctor

Pelosi and Schumer are the reason firms smaller than 500pp are even getting anything. The GOP only wanted to bail out larger companies. Read up before bullshitting around.

Apr 16, 20 5:12 pm  · 
 · 
Volunteer's comment has been hidden
Volunteer

Democrats have never cared about small business or their employees. They care about getting their hands on the contributions from big unionized labor at big business and contributions from unionized government employees like the teacher's unions.

Apr 16, 20 5:38 pm  · 
 · 
Chad Miller's comment has been hidden
Chad Miller

There are so many lies and half truths (still a lie) posted above that I'm not even going to take the time to dispute them all. I will say this, jla-x, Volunter, sameolddoctor - you are a bunch of fuck-wits.

Have fun living in your own little pissed off world.  

Apr 16, 20 6:02 pm  · 
 · 
square.'s comment has been hidden
square.

^these are some paranoid people living in a small, fabricated world. it's more entertaining to read it as satire.

Apr 16, 20 6:11 pm  · 
 · 
Chad Miller's comment has been hidden
Chad Miller

I think it's more fun to call out their stupidity and loss of connection to reality. I can't believe those three are able to function as architects and find clients with such a degree of paranoia.

Apr 16, 20 6:16 pm  · 
 · 
Ancient Sheds's comment has been hidden

Chad you are guaranteeing the re-election of the orange guy with such an attitude against your fellow peers.....anyway can we take bets since not much sporting event to bet on now? Trump wins re-election, putting $20 spot on that one, but I will hedge my bet with - Unless the Dems put Cuomo on the ticket, then I will bet $100 on Cuomo. Biden:Trump odds are too close to call, it's like a 1:1.

Apr 16, 20 6:25 pm  · 
 · 
b3tadine[sutures]'s comment has been hidden
b3tadine[sutures]

Yeah, it surprises me little that the Libertarian wants to blame socialism for this. It's an absolute joke. The failure here that hedge funds and multi nationals got any money, and the wealthy got a major tax break. The guillotines are being sharpened right now, and those Randian clowns are going to get it soon.

Apr 16, 20 6:33 pm  · 
 · 
archi_dude's comment has been hidden
archi_dude

Socialism works until you run out of other people's money. Proven throughout history. Nothing diferent here.

Apr 16, 20 6:45 pm  · 
 · 
b3tadine[sutures]'s comment has been hidden
b3tadine[sutures]

How do you run out of money? The Republikkkans have been bullshitting everyone for years with that mess, and yet when their corporate whores need bailing out, suddenly deficits don't matter. Bullshit I say.

Apr 16, 20 6:54 pm  · 
 · 
x-jla's comment has been hidden
x-jla

B3, your socialist wet dream was over 2 weeks in. It’s a sad reality check for any young comrade that thinks the world can function without capitalism and private industry. The government isn’t good at anything. They are clueless paper pushers.

Apr 16, 20 6:55 pm  · 
 · 
Ancient Sheds's comment has been hidden

little known read on this, but Jean-Paul Satre's equally fat book to Karl Marx's "Das Kapital"called "Critique of Dialectical Reason", after a massive foreward by Frederic Jameson - Jean-Paul flies through in about 122 pages in a Jean-Paul existential manner from Hegel thru Marx's Dialectic softly landing on

"Scarcity and Mode of Production" in Book 1 - Section III - Chapter. In short (my reading) our historical human material existence is a negotiation on a planet of "scarcity". Think about it! Our entire history to date as a planet of interacting humans is based on "scarcity". Now in that condition the hopes of "socialism" are essentially untenable for ALL. So neo-liberal freemarket Capitalism as a means of "hope" will continue to be the only solution, hence a Libertarian will say - I work hard, am a free person, and therefore am due my portion of the little portion of accumulated Kapital (material wealth) of the world. If I ever take the position "socialism" won't work, it's because it "practically" cannot unless over half the population dies now or over time is severely reduced. Communist China has know this for decades. Just sayin' (ok back to work, haha)

Apr 16, 20 7:18 pm  · 
 · 
Ancient Sheds's comment has been hidden

Most of you arguing here are actually "Social Democrats" - 

Mort Sahl can explain

Apr 16, 20 7:23 pm  · 
 · 
b3tadine[sutures]'s comment has been hidden
b3tadine[sutures]

Jlax, my Socialist wet dream, would be that the workers get the money, and let them decide who lives and who dies. Not corporate whores.

Apr 16, 20 7:33 pm  · 
 · 
square.'s comment has been hidden
square.

yes, social democracy. and don’t tell me there isn’t money when jeff bezos can buy every team in the nfl.. who do you think generated that money for him? the point isn’t to abolish amazon, it’s to force it to distribute its wealth, generated mostly by its workers, more equitably. we should be embarrassed that we’ve allowed individuals to amass such wealth when we can’t even supply enou
gh ppe for health care workers.

Apr 16, 20 7:44 pm  · 
 · 
b3tadine[sutures]'s comment has been hidden
b3tadine[sutures]

^spot on. We need a square. deal!

Apr 16, 20 7:56 pm  · 
 · 
x-jla's comment has been hidden
x-jla

Workers are useless without work. Industry employs workers. Government cannot run industry. They can barely run government.

Apr 16, 20 8:00 pm  · 
 · 
x-jla's comment has been hidden
x-jla

“the point isn’t to abolish amazon, it’s to force it to distribute its wealth, generated mostly by its workers, more equitably” What is equitable? Numbers please.

Apr 16, 20 8:04 pm  · 
 · 
b3tadine[sutures]'s comment has been hidden
b3tadine[sutures]

Corporate whores are useless without people to subjugate. Workers are the ones whose labor is being stolen.

Apr 16, 20 8:09 pm  · 
 · 
x-jla's comment has been hidden
x-jla

Your ok then with partisan government cogs having the authority to force redistribution of private property. Remember trump is president, and was “democratically” voted in. These feel good things are said with little understanding of the downstream consequences of such a powerful state. Hasn’t this crisis Exposed that threat?

Apr 16, 20 8:10 pm  · 
 · 
thisisnotmyname

Does anyone have any idea how much it would cost to fully fund PPP? Is it in the trillions? Was the program ever really practical? In hindsight, some kind of pause on all residential and commercial rent and mortgage payments along with offering food stamps to everyone in the USA may have been more effective and easier to implement as a way to facilitate waiting out the epidemic.

Apr 16, 20 8:13 pm  · 
 · 
x-jla's comment has been hidden
x-jla

“Workers are the ones whose labor is being stolen“. How is labor being stolen? They agree to work for a certain fee and get paid that fee to work.

Apr 16, 20 8:28 pm  · 
 · 
b3tadine[sutures]'s comment has been hidden
b3tadine[sutures]

Yeah. Ok.

Apr 16, 20 8:33 pm  · 
 · 
x-jla's comment has been hidden
x-jla

No one forced them to work. Can’t expect an 18 yo HS dropout who works at the McDonald’s drive through to make as much as a general manager of McDonald’s CEO. Can’t expect a receptionist to make as much as a neurosurgeon, or an Architect firm owner to make as much as a CAD monkey fresh out of school. Ownership takes risk and 24/7 work and stress.

Apr 16, 20 8:50 pm  · 
 · 
Ancient Sheds's comment has been hidden
tduds's comment has been hidden
tduds

My god this thread is stupid. If jla took half the time he spent bitching about socialism & welfare and read a damn book he might actually start criticizing the right thing.

Apr 16, 20 9:05 pm  · 
 · 
tduds's comment has been hidden
tduds

I agree though we shouldn't pay strawmen as much as Bill Gates. We should pay them more, though.

Apr 16, 20 9:05 pm  · 
 · 
x-jla's comment has been hidden
x-jla

This virus is exposing some cracks. Just saying. Take a look at the wonderful health care systems of Europe that are constantly being held as shiny examples of progress. Completely overwhelmed and death rates are many times higher than US. Just saying, going forward maybe more architects ought to embrace the system that has fed architects-capitalism. Thanks goodnight

Apr 16, 20 9:18 pm  · 
 · 
x-jla's comment has been hidden
x-jla

So, you all got trial run of socialism authoritarian life under democratically elected tyrant. This is what I warn about. Hope you like! Hope capitalism comes back before I have to eat pets.

Apr 16, 20 9:23 pm  · 
 · 
square.'s comment has been hidden
square.

jla-x, it’s very simple. without factory workers, who are the least pay amongst amazon employees, your shit wouldn’t get to you in 2 days, a process which mr bezos has been allowed to extract exorbitant wealth from. this is because of the way the rules are written. it’s really quite simple. change the rules (aka tax structure) and he can still be a wealthy man within reason, but instead the government won’t need to subsidize his
employees with food stamps.

Apr 16, 20 9:59 pm  · 
 · 
square.'s comment has been hidden
square.

at the end of the day it’s hard for anyone to argue that it’s reasonable for 3 people to own more wealth than the bottom half of this country’s population. that’s not natural laws, it’s a system that’s been designed. and it can be changed.

Apr 16, 20 10:00 pm  · 
 · 
Ancient Sheds's comment has been hidden

you've all elected this Bezos guy, you're pursuit for happiness in the form of laziness...your addiction you peasants -

Britain, in other words, outsourced famine as well as social unrest. There was terrible poverty in this country in the second half of the 19th century, but not mass starvation. The bad harvest of 1788 helped precipitate the French revolution, but the British state avoided such hazards. Others died on our behalf. 



In the late 19th century, Davis shows, Britain's vast deficits with the United States, Germany and its white dominions were balanced by huge annual surpluses with India and (as a result of the opium trade) China. For a generation "the starving Indian and Chinese peasantries … braced the entire system of international settlements, allowing England's continued financial supremacy to temporarily co-exist with its relative industrial decline". Britain's trade surpluses with India allowed the City to become the world's financial capital.


Apr 16, 20 10:18 pm  · 
 · 
Ancient Sheds's comment has been hidden

there I took this thread up a notch ;)

Apr 16, 20 10:19 pm  · 
 · 
archi_dude's comment has been hidden
archi_dude

Jlax give it up man. You'll get to say I told you so either in a few months or a few years at this rate. Sadly it wont be very comforting when we get there....

Apr 16, 20 11:00 pm  · 
 · 
b3tadine[sutures]'s comment has been hidden
b3tadine[sutures]

jlax has been pitching this muddled horseshit for years. he's never been close to be right. fuck, a broken clock has better odds in being right at least twice in one day.

Apr 16, 20 11:09 pm  · 
 · 
x-jla's comment has been hidden
x-jla

archi-dude, not trying to convince b3, just putting the perspective out there for any youngsters enticed by the socialism snake oil salesmen.

Apr 16, 20 11:19 pm  · 
 · 
square.'s comment has been hidden
square.

yes.. this has been working out so well. two massive financial crises in a decade. what is it you exactly sell? is there even anything to measure against? you seemed to pilfer the grass-is-greener libertarianism with only speculation.

Apr 16, 20 11:26 pm  · 
 · 
x-jla's comment has been hidden
x-jla

Square, without a factory, there cannot be factory workers. I’m not denying the value of labor, but like anything else, the price of labor is determined by supply and demand. It takes a vision, risk, luck, and hard work to start a successful company. Not every “worker” is capable or determined in doing so. That’s why they are “workers”. Not everyone can be a millionaire owner...not everyone can be a rock star or nba player. That’s life.

Apr 16, 20 11:27 pm  · 
 · 
b3tadine[sutures]'s comment has been hidden
b3tadine[sutures]

without workers, there are no factories. we don't need factories for billionaires to pilfer, we need environments for workers to thrive, control, and live their lives to their fullest capacity. they are not batteries, they are human beings, with rights, needs, and they want to be happy.

Apr 16, 20 11:33 pm  · 
 · 
x-jla's comment has been hidden
x-jla

square, years of economic and social betterment in anyplace that’s adopted free markets. Capitalism has lifted more people out of poverty and tended towards expanded liberty for more people than anything else. Not perfect, but beats state removing your uterus because you had 2 kids.

Apr 16, 20 11:34 pm  · 
 · 
x-jla's comment has been hidden
x-jla

Just find it ironic that you all want back what you had 3 months ago. I’d think you would be thrilled that companies and job creators are closed. The state is now controlling economy like you wished for.

Apr 16, 20 11:37 pm  · 
 · 
Ancient Sheds's comment has been hidden

"The state is now controlling economy like you wished for. " yup yup.

The question is though - is the Economy more important than your diabetic grandma? I think some, if not many, would say yes.

The Millenials had it too easy, I am grateful they are now learning about life. It's a disappointment unless you really try ! - Gen X'er

Apr 16, 20 11:44 pm  · 
 · 
midlander's comment has been hidden
midlander

economies are made by states regardless of the particular form of market control they implement. the notion of a "stateless free market" is like the idea of an authorless book. it's no surprise conservatives choose to believe in both; it necessarily implies some god is arranging outside our view. the more thoughtful among us have the audacity to look behind the curtain and ask our government to pull a few levers and help us all out.

Apr 17, 20 1:16 am  · 
 · 
x-jla's comment has been hidden
x-jla

You are arguing to the extremes.

Apr 17, 20 1:46 am  · 
 · 
x-jla's comment has been hidden
x-jla

My point is, covid exposes how useless the state is without the free market. They are really really nothing more than some talking heads and paper pushers in the background. It’s the entrepreneurial class that carries and moves this country along...

Apr 17, 20 2:01 am  · 
 · 
Ancient Sheds's comment has been hidden

good one rick! all people who want landscapers are anti-socialist.

Apr 17, 20 7:24 am  · 
 · 
Ancient Sheds's comment has been hidden

I think Jla-x really isn't arguing against socialism, just government. so landscapers are also Anti-Government?

Apr 17, 20 7:25 am  · 
 · 
square.'s comment has been hidden
square.

jla-x - the counter examples you use are laughable extremes (aka i'm waiting for venezuela) - even though some nationalized health care systems are under strain (what health care system in the world isn't); conservative boris j thanked the nhs for saving his life. i am advocating for moderation as well - social democracy. it's been done in countless scandinavian countries that still employ a market to some degree. no one is sitting here asking for the gulag's to come back.. it's a straw-man you love to use.

Apr 17, 20 9:18 am  · 
 · 
Everyday Architect's comment has been hidden

Literal spit take here when jla-x said someone else was arguing to extremes.

Apr 17, 20 11:15 am  · 
 · 
x-jla's comment has been hidden
x-jla

RB, you’ve been self quarantined since 1980s. Good point though. Maybe Architects tend towards socialism because they are control freaks...Us landscape people understand spontaneous order. Maybe something there...idk..

Apr 17, 20 11:33 am  · 
 · 
Non Sequitur's comment has been hidden
Non Sequitur

idk is perhaps the most accurate thing you've said in sometime JLA.

Apr 17, 20 11:40 am  · 
 · 
Ancient Sheds's comment has been hidden

I think Jla-X just one-upped RB on the insults... I think we need to stop confusing "Socialism" with "Government" or you know "Society" in general. If we want to be technical....wait that's it, Architect's are technical and landscapers just kind of wing it ;)

Apr 17, 20 11:54 am  · 
 · 
tduds's comment has been hidden
tduds

"You are arguing to the extremes." 

This is a rich statement from Mr. 'Everything is either Capitalism or Socialism'

Apr 17, 20 1:07 pm  · 
 · 
tduds's comment has been hidden
tduds

"My point is, covid exposes how useless the state is without the free market." 

It also exposes how fragile the free market is without the state. 

& pre-emptively, for the millionth time, I'm not advocating for "socialism." I'm pointing out that what you're criticizing isn't socialism and what you're promoting isn't capitalism. You either don't understand the terms or you simplify to the point of others misunderstanding.

Apr 17, 20 1:11 pm  · 
 · 
Bench's comment has been hidden
Bench

I also choked on some coffee seeing the 'arguing to extremes' comment here

Apr 17, 20 1:25 pm  · 
 · 
x-jla's comment has been hidden
x-jla

I’m not arguing with moderation. I’m arguing with the people who a few weeks ago we’re celebrating the “end of capitalism”. People who were using this to point to the failure of capitalism and efficiency of Chinese communism. You know who you are...

Apr 17, 20 1:30 pm  · 
 · 
x-jla's comment has been hidden
x-jla

“This is a rich statement from Mr. 'Everything is either Capitalism or Socialism'”

Apr 17, 20 1:42 pm  · 
 · 
x-jla's comment has been hidden
x-jla

^ where did I say everything was capitalism or socialism?

Apr 17, 20 1:43 pm  · 
 · 
x-jla's comment has been hidden
x-jla

I’ve actually argued the opposite quite a few times in here. I argued that all systems are hybrids. I’ve argued that “libertarianism” that you all seem to demonize is simply a spectrum not an absolute. The other side of the coin is authoritarianism. When you argue against libertarianism you are arguing towards authoritarianism. That’s a 100% true statement. Any measure to cease and redistribute wealth (like some call for above) requires moving the dial towards authoritarianism. Now that we are dealing with this virus, wondering how you are all liking Expanded authoritarianism under a democratically elected president. That’s all.

Apr 17, 20 1:48 pm  · 
 · 
x-jla's comment has been hidden
x-jla

socialism and fascism requires authoritarianism. They are different styles of the same type of strong arm state

Apr 17, 20 1:53 pm  · 
 · 
Non Sequitur's comment has been hidden
Non Sequitur

^No, it does not.

Apr 17, 20 1:55 pm  · 
 · 
x-jla's comment has been hidden
x-jla

Oh, please explain how you would take my property without?

Apr 17, 20 2:00 pm  · 
 · 
Non Sequitur's comment has been hidden
Non Sequitur

what property? No one is taking any of mine up here and we're basically dirty communists in your eyes.

Apr 17, 20 2:02 pm  · 
 · 
b3tadine[sutures]'s comment has been hidden
b3tadine[sutures]

No one argued for the efficiency of the Chinese system. In fact I know for certain that many of us have argued the opposite, while additionally holding the same thought in our heads, that Chinese people, both American and non, should not be blamed for a corrupt system.

Apr 17, 20 2:37 pm  · 
 · 
tduds's comment has been hidden
tduds

As I said above the common thread and common problem is authoritarianism.

Apr 17, 20 2:49 pm  · 
 · 
tduds's comment has been hidden
tduds

"Chinese people , both American and non, should not be blamed for a corrupt system" 

++

Apr 17, 20 2:50 pm  · 
 · 
Non Sequitur's comment has been hidden
Non Sequitur

who is blaming me?

Apr 17, 20 2:52 pm  · 
 · 
x-jla's comment has been hidden
x-jla

Agree. I literally said same thing about Chinese people. My gripe isn’t even with China. It’s with Westerners who always bash capitalism without acknowledging the positive aspects of a free market and the problems with a government controlled market. That’s all.

Apr 17, 20 7:04 pm  · 
 · 
b3tadine[sutures]'s comment has been hidden
b3tadine[sutures]

The free market does not exist. It hasn't in like forever.

Apr 17, 20 9:44 pm  · 
 · 
sameolddoctor

Just heard about the "Big G" laying off a 1000 employees globally. Would suck if true.

Apr 16, 20 5:39 pm  · 
 · 
peterjones

It is true.

Apr 16, 20 6:09 pm  · 
 · 
Phantom

Is that Gensler?

Apr 16, 20 6:26 pm  · 
 · 
peterjones

Yea, Gensler.

Apr 16, 20 6:56 pm  · 
 · 
curtkram

did that just happen? I'm working with them on a project

Apr 16, 20 8:46 pm  · 
 · 
archanonymous

Gensler is a fairly distributed firm so the layoffs and furloughs have been in waves across their various offices. Usually regional decisions and I think they have 5-7 "regions" in the US with about 5 offices in each region.

Apr 17, 20 12:24 pm  · 
 · 
amarchy

Yep, 20% laid off at Gensler. About 1600 people let go worldwide. Half laid off, half furloughed, principals took pay cuts and some staff reduced hours. A billion
dollar firm dried up in 6 weeks.

Apr 18, 20 3:54 pm  · 
 · 
maxtong

I gone through 2 recession since graduated from Architectural School and this is my 3rd one... one thing I learned... look after yourself and be ready for the next one. Start your own consulting practice or best to have something on the side doing something different or similar. Diversify is the best strategy.

Apr 16, 20 6:24 pm  · 
 · 

Yep, this layoff happened last Thursday and I am one of the victims. Not sure how many got laid off in the nyc office, but what the office did to me is brutal and I am still angry and depressed at the same time.  

Apr 16, 20 6:26 pm  · 
 · 
msparchitect

"what the office did to me" - What do you mean? In how they told you?

Apr 17, 20 9:36 am  · 
 · 
threeohdoor

Yea, what does this mean?

Apr 17, 20 9:47 am  · 
 · 
Lululala

I can’t quite disclose the termination process that I went through here due to the agreement that I signed with my office. But the way they delivered the message of my termination was not humane, that’s all I can say. This company is all about money.  If you can be a corporate junkie, this is the perfect place to be, otherwise, you won’t last too long.  

Apr 17, 20 10:05 am  · 
 · 

Only in America do corporations hold such power that the person just terminated feels a need to protect the corporate overlord.

Apr 17, 20 11:13 am  · 
 · 
thisisnotmyname

I suspect lot of firm owners know they can get away with all sorts of despicable actions because "professionalism" and "not burning bridges" means everybody will keep their mouth shut.

Apr 17, 20 11:54 am  · 
 · 
amarchy

Sorry to hear as a former employee. They are brutal when it comes to letting people go when their ship is sinking. We are just cogs in the wheel no matter how much they pretend to care.

Apr 18, 20 3:57 pm  · 
 · 
revolutionary poet

so what tally we at now?  Is there a number on this, total Architectural layoffs to date.

Time to start listening to Ezra Pounds Radio Broadcasts, that got him imprisoned for treason....

Apr 16, 20 7:24 pm  · 
 · 
Taso

10% pay-cut and 10% staff furloughed happened in >100ppl firm in SF Bay Area. Luckily I survived, but it's heart breaking moment everyday since the announcement and to hear the news who became on the list. It's the first recession I'm experiencing.

Apr 16, 20 7:47 pm  · 
 · 
zonker

Yup, I was there too, back in 08' when I had 2 years at a big office in SF. I've been in Recession mode(putting in extra hours and work weekends) for 11 years now.

Apr 16, 20 10:00 pm  · 
 · 
geezertect

It's your first, but it won't be your last.

Apr 17, 20 10:02 am  · 
 · 
Chad Miller

code - your recession mode sounds like a great way to burn out and not protect yourself from being laid off.

Apr 17, 20 10:39 am  · 
 · 
SneakyPete

working more does not protect you from anything if everyone else is doing the same thing. try providing value via knowledge or skills other folks don't have. much more layoff proof.

Apr 17, 20 12:26 pm  · 
 · 
square.

yes- in all likelihood these decisions, even if they haven’t happened, are already made aka the bosses already have at least a mental list of who goes first. putting in more time, above and beyond, won’t change a damn thing except to risk you personal well-being

Apr 18, 20 11:52 am  · 
 · 
peterjones

20% of a 6,000+ Employee company.

Apr 16, 20 8:28 pm  · 
 · 

so they run on really thin margins...even the biggest and greatest don't really make money. good to know.

Apr 16, 20 11:46 pm  · 
 · 

If it holds any meaning... I talked about the history of fee rates a while back.... https://archinect.com/blog/article/101927024/george-nelson-nailed-our-design-fee-dilemma-60-years-ago

Apr 17, 20 9:42 am  · 
 · 
square.

really great post, thanks for sharing. need to read that book!

Apr 17, 20 9:59 am  · 
 · 
Non Sequitur

Recently had an office meeting where ownership reiterated their commitment to covering all salaries for the duration of the zombie apocalypse.  So all hourly staff, from the lowest tier draftsmen to senior arch get a full cheque for as long as we're kept home even if they can't commit to a full work week due to children or other responsibilities.

Your turn corporate america.

Apr 17, 20 12:08 pm  · 
 · 
SneakyPete

Good to hear your firm isn't shit. Also have a strong disdain for corporate america. Not sure I'm seeing the connection here unless your firm is a corporation?

Apr 17, 20 12:25 pm  · 
 · 
Non Sequitur

last sentence is more of a cute one-liner but we have .inc at the end of our firm's name after all.

Apr 17, 20 12:29 pm  · 
 · 
SneakyPete

corporate america will come out of this just fine. they've probably been looking forward to a good plague to kill off the sickly competition. Shit, Lime scooters laid off 12% of its workforce in January yet somehow managed to have enough money to buy up Boosted's IP. Fuck people hard, kill them if you can, but leave just enough to make and buy our shit.

Apr 17, 20 12:35 pm  · 
 · 
square.

amazing. same for my office. firms that aren't able to do this have some serious soul searching to do.

Apr 17, 20 12:41 pm  · 
 · 
tduds

I'm in a similar situation, Non. Sounds like our SBA was approved so that should help float us all for a little while. Thankfully we still have a lot of projects moving ahead. I feel lucky to work at a firm that gives a shit about the people they employ. I feel disappointed that it's not more common.

Apr 17, 20 1:14 pm  · 
 · 
b3tadine[sutures]

I'm thinking the profession needs to take a run at that anti-trust ruling. I mean if we can't make the internet a utility, we need to hit that.

Apr 17, 20 1:22 pm  · 
 · 
Bench

Congrats NS. We appear to be fine over here, at least from everything that's been communicated. Who knows for the future though, maybe we need to rehash things over virtual HH.

Apr 17, 20 1:28 pm  · 
 · 
Non Sequitur

Good to see similar approaches are out there.

Apr 17, 20 2:16 pm  · 
 · 

Similar approach in my office south of the 49th parallel. They still expect us to be as billable and productive as we would normally be ... so that's apparently the difference between us and you commies up north (though between you and me, the office would let your hours slide a little if you had a good reason for it like kids, sickness, etc.).

Apr 17, 20 2:59 pm  · 
 · 
proto

We got stiff-armed on the PPP as a "multi-owner" [2 people, both owners] cuz our bank decided to run it that way. Now they are out of funding. IRS stimulus did arrive on 4/15 (minus Trump signature as direct deposit). No idea on EIDL...not a peep from SBA on that since applying 3/31

Apr 17, 20 4:36 pm  · 
 · 
CodesareFUN

Apparently SOM just announced paycuts and furloughs.

Apr 17, 20 12:59 pm  · 
 · 
sameolddoctor

Next will be layoffs. SOM employees, make sure to back your shit up, it gets ugly up in that office.

Apr 17, 20 5:04 pm  · 
 · 
peterjones

Let's also not forget implications this has on the hiring market after it is all said and done. There will be a plethora of designers looking for work, and those that will be hiring will be good old fashion low bidding because people will be needing jobs, a dark, dark cycle is turning a new leaf. I'm sure this happens with most fields when times get hard but hard to imagine people in our industry taking pay cuts when we already sacrifice quite a bit for low wages.

Apr 17, 20 12:59 pm  · 
 · 
archanonymous

I was trying to be optimistic... hoping it will shake up the job-market and cause the industry to take a look at business as usual. Will be interesting to see if lots of graduating students and the laid-off permanently leave architecture like they did last recession.

Apr 17, 20 1:14 pm  · 
 · 

@peterjones - i agree there's going to be some serious churn in the market but i'm not sure salaries will be a race to the bottom. in my seat, if there's someone who's talented and a great fit, we're going to make a run for the long haul. why would we want to hire them for a little less, have them figure that out, become disgruntled, and then leave again? if you're taking advantage of people already... 

@arhanonymous - absolutely agreed. there could be another wave of people just not coming back. 


Apr 17, 20 1:36 pm  · 
 · 
archi_dude

Had a discussion with a friend in marketing yesterday. This is my 2nd downturn since school, I think this one is going to be even worse than 08/09. He was annoyed that he's looking at a year without a raise while his old coworkers still in tech were booming and he's thinking he needs to head back. Here we are looking at furloughs and pay cuts and a long employment drought and used to it. If I get cut, I think I'm calling it. Side note as well. It looks like rural states are opening up sooner. Since everything I loved about California is illegal until a vaccine, questioning a move to a more simpler life anyway and giving up on the rat race entirely. What's the point of staying in a high density state if it's illegal to exist.

Apr 17, 20 2:59 pm  · 
 · 
square.

i posted this somewhere earlier.. but i would put money on the fact that the large cocktail oriented firm here in nyc laid off 1/3 of their staff knowing that there will be plenty of new desperate grads who will take whatever they can get in a few months.


Apr 17, 20 3:56 pm  · 
 · 
zonker

A lot of firms will see this as an opportunity to "clean house" a lot of people have moved up in pay but not proficiency. They are going to be looking at people who's utilization rats have dropped to 75% or below

Apr 17, 20 4:57 pm  · 
 · 
curtkram

i don't think this will be as bad as 08. under that recession, the fundamental way money works got screwed up, which spread across all markets. this is targeting a few specific markets and densely populated areas.

Apr 18, 20 11:45 am  · 
 · 
curtkram

this is a good read. maybe something good comes out of this in the end https://marker.medium.com/america-is-about-to-witness-the-biggest-labor-movement-its-seen-in-decades-3aa47f0edf52

Apr 18, 20 12:22 pm  · 
 · 

couple that with universities going under or to virtual education fully; and me sitting here with the 3D printer making PPE and hand sanitizer with Everclear...it's going to happen.

Apr 18, 20 2:53 pm  · 
 · 
revolutionary poet's comment has been hidden
revolutionary poet

Beta notes:


I'm thinking the profession needs to take a run at that anti-trust
ruling. I mean if we can't make the internet a utility, we need to hit
that.

How can we start?  I'm even down with just flat out doing whatever they said we can not do.   We are half-ass lawyers, I know there are sly ways like HMO's to control an entire industry "legally".

Apr 17, 20 7:04 pm  · 
 · 
thisisnotmyname

Yes this. The anti-trust landscape is 1000% different than it was in the 1970's. Basically, enforcement of the law is gone and I think it's ok to have a trust now. The AIA just has to figure out the right way to make it so.   I think they could just dust off the old fee guidelines, adjust for inflation, and republish them.

Apr 17, 20 7:49 pm  · 
 · 

well let's get crackin'. They didn't have the internet. A place where questionable things can be done anonymously. An anonymous union until it annoys the shit out of authorities and the laws follow common sense and change.

Apr 17, 20 8:37 pm  · 
 · 
x-jla's comment has been hidden
x-jla

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.mercurynews.com/2020/04/17/coronavirus-2-5-to-4-2-of-santa-clara-county-residents-infected-stanford-estimates/amp/

Most important news so far.  Of course MSM is not really paying much attention.  Oh the people who lost businesses are going to be very very mad if this is true which it seems it is....Overreaction was justified because we didn’t know, but once we have more confirmation of this, not opening up is going to cause unrest if this Data is correct.  

Apr 17, 20 7:07 pm  · 
 · 
x-jla

Maybe shouldn’t lay anyone off just yet...

Apr 17, 20 7:18 pm  · 
 · 

The issue in a nutshell - It IS not the percentage of people who die from the virus, its whether the health care system can handle the amount that could. By handle, I mean effectively handle the threat with some effort. Basically the health care system can't handle a cause of death that puts 1.5% of the population in the hospital. (that's know cases/population of county - Queens). Death caused by Corona in Queens - 0.1% (the morgues can't even handle that) https://bao.arcgis.com/covid-19/jhu/county/36081.html

Apr 17, 20 8:35 pm  · 
 · 

Add one more factor to that which is time. Then you would have to look at the rate of virus accepted patients before the shut-down versus after. Take the derivative at the time before shutdown, run that for a bit versus average health care system processing...anyway, that's the modeling spiel....problem is they weren't modeling the economy at same time? unless you know of someone. How many suicides have been now committed due to layoffs?  How many unemployed people will not have money for life saving medications?  would love to see a model for that.

Apr 17, 20 8:45 pm  · 
 · 
x-jla

Yeah, a super contagious bug that gets everyone sick in a small window is the problem. Looks like the death rate is far far lower than anticipated though. Maybe 50-80x lower. If the studies are accurate this implies that relatively healthy people can probably return to normal life with risk about same as or a little greater than a bad flu. Not saying flu isn’t bad, and 2x flu is definitely not something to take lightly, but also we don’t shut down society. The economic toll on mental and physical health may outweigh like you say.

Apr 17, 20 9:05 pm  · 
 · 

another model you could run, how much lost revenue will affect municipal budgets, budgets that fund hospitals that treat patients?

Apr 17, 20 9:15 pm  · 
 · 
midlander

the stanford test has a crucial methodological flaw, in that they asked for volunteers who wanted to get tested. that predisposes them towards people who probably wondered whether that cough they had 6 weeks ago was the coronavirus. even the write-up on this acknowledges this fault: The research may have favored people... with prior COVID-like illnesses who wanted antibody confirmation. don't change your worldview over misinterpretations of weak research.

Apr 18, 20 1:29 am  · 
 · 
midlander

i realize i'm not going to change anyone's mind here who is determined to imagine this is all a conspiracy, since no adult has ever changed their mind based on voluntary readings of a rational argument. but anyway, here is a fairly simple graphic showing that on a weekly basis death by coronvirus is now comparable to heart disease and greater than that of any other disease or accident. and BIG NOTE, this is AFTER we make extraordinary efforts to prevent the spread. if we did nothing, it would be much worse. https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2020/04/16/coronavirus-leading-cause-death/?arc404=true

Apr 18, 20 1:38 am  · 
 · 
midlander

just to belabor the point, if the economic hardship so far has caused 10X the normal number of people to commit suicide every week, that would still be less than the number of people dying of corovirus AFTER WE MINIMIZE the spread of infection.

Apr 18, 20 1:41 am  · 
 · 
midlander

now if your argument is that effective tracing and testing should have been started before the virus became endemic in order to minimize the economic impact - totally agree on that. why didn't anyone consider that when it was still possible?

Apr 18, 20 1:47 am  · 
 · 
x-jla

The number may be skewed, but there are undoubtedly far more mild cases than have been recorded in official numbers. This isn’t a conspiracy, it’s a reality that every entomologist has acknowledged as highly likely. It’s also not a conspiracy that msm loves sensationalism. That makes them money. The virus has given them a huge rating boost. If results of this study are confirmed in more places it will really change the narrative and probably cause more distrust ...(note they tested a town in Germany and 15% of population had
antibodies which was also 50 something times the official numbers)

Apr 18, 20 3:17 am  · 
 · 
x-jla

We need random testing, but the numbers are certainly going to lower the cfr. The cfr is what drives fear. Fear is what drivers behavior. The msm has been instilling fear and focusing on the rare young deaths to persuade compliance with stay at home orders...appealing to selfishness rather than altruism. Understandable, but also BS. Another BS lie was that masks are ineffective. Remember that line. Anyone who believed it is dumb, but the motive was to steer people from hoarding masks. Rather than tell people not to horde masks, they simply said that they didn’t work, and that in fact it was MORE dangerous to have one on. The dummies believed it. It’s fucking common sense, but...

Apr 18, 20 3:23 am  · 
 · 
x-jla

Anyway, this totally flips the script. 50-85x May be high because of biased group, but it’s certainly going to be many many times higher. I personally know dozens of people who had symptoms and denied testing. The real BIAS is that they only tested people who were severely ill or celebrities.

Apr 18, 20 3:26 am  · 
 · 
x-jla

Rick, There are quite a few

Apr 18, 20 3:30 am  · 
 · 
x-jla

doctors who think this was here since December. There were

Apr 18, 20 3:31 am  · 
 · 
Apple_Juice_Yes

It doesn't matter if covid-19s lethality rate is low. The issue is its highly contagious nature that isn't fully understood.

You can have a virus with 100% fatality rate that isn't contagious. It kills 1 person. You can have a virus with 1% fatality rate that is highly contagious and so it spreads to 10,000 people. It kills 100 people.

A contagious virus, despite a low CFR, has explosive growth potential. That's why countries are doing what they are doing.

Apr 18, 20 3:36 am  · 
 · 
midlander

i agree with you here jla-x. panic is a counterproductive reaction - hording TP was a sign of miscommunicated urgency. an earlier but more coordinated response to take effective preventive actions would have been much better than belated response followed by heavy-handed correction and panic. too late to fix that! this is the problem in dealing with an unknown epidemic - no one knows how bad it can be, until it's really bad. of course, in recent years smart people put together a lot of guidance for just such a situation. they now have an excellent chance to say "i told you so!"

Apr 18, 20 5:13 am  · 
 · 
CodesareFUN

People poop more when scared.

Apr 18, 20 8:18 am  · 
 · 
x-jla

Apple, yeah but a fatality rate of 1 an a billion isn’t going to cause you panic like a fatality rate of 1 in a hundred. Us humans organize our lives based on assessing risk vs reward. We fly through the sky in metal tubes at 600mph because it has a low risk of death. If 1:100 of airplanes crashed I certainly wouldn’t fly. Like I said, novel viruses have to play it safe until we know. If we Find we were w

Apr 18, 20 8:35 am  · 
 · 

in simpler terms - if you live in a hotspot you get it. if you don't you will think this is a type of "conspiracy". generally urban areas are the hotspots and urban areas vote blue and rural areas are not the hotspots and vote red. i mean if I was a politician its time to start the propaganda!

Apr 18, 20 9:12 am  · 
 · 
archi_dude's comment has been hidden
archi_dude

1 million dead with social distancing, wait 500k wait 200k wait 100k wait 70k wait 60k.  You might catch it twice though! Logical conclusion. Hide inside forever.....

Apr 18, 20 12:10 pm  · 
 · 
Dangermouse

idk why you tards struggle so much with causality.

Apr 18, 20 12:49 pm  · 
 · 
archi_dude

And is that really a logical solution?

Apr 18, 20 1:31 pm  · 
 · 
x-jla

Meanwhile, sit home eat like shit, get overweight, don't exercise, smoke, drink, sit home unemployed, stress out about bills, etc. that’s not a healthy way to live. There are consequences for everything. Life is sometimes about weighing risks. Numbers help is weigh risks. If this has a cfr similar to the flu for most of the healthy population, then we should shelter the vulnerable and try to get back to normal.

Apr 18, 20 2:18 pm  · 
 · 
x-jla

One of the reasons I’m so touchy about this lately is because 2 of my sons 16 yo classmates OD on drugs while home quarantined with family. One died. My son didn’t know them well. I can’t help but think the stress and isolation of this may have contributed. Yes they probably did drugs before this, but could that have been the straw that broke the camels back? This is going to create a generation of social anxiety, depression, economic strife, and neurotic behavior.

Apr 18, 20 2:26 pm  · 
 · 
x-jla

We are trying to avoid a physical health crisis, but going to create a social and mental health crisis. It’s a trade off of course, and may be justified, but as new data comes in political leaders and media must be willing to quickly adjust to the new knowledge without worrying about saving face and egotistical things.

Apr 18, 20 2:31 pm  · 
 · 
x-jla

It’s that I have little faith in.

Apr 18, 20 2:32 pm  · 
 · 
curtkram

jla, have you been listening to como's addresses in new york? he's absolutely listening to new facts as they are available and quickly adjusting. clogging up hospitals with covid patients on ventilators takes away resources that could otherwise help people that need rushed to the hospital with drug overdoses as well as allergic reactions or any other emergency medical event, which is why we need to stay on social distancing until the smart people like cuomo or fauci, who have better information than you do, say otherwise

Apr 18, 20 3:19 pm  · 
 · 
b3tadine[sutures]

My favorite part of the stupid, is decrying the downward trend of the death figures, to me you are operating on such a low level of intellectual capacity, it makes me want to steal all of your clients. I really feel for them, to have to deal with that level of stupid must be mind numbing.

Apr 19, 20 1:13 pm  · 
 · 
square.

right, it's as if they think a field hospital in central park and a military hospital ship in the hudson are tenable..

Apr 20, 20 10:30 am  · 
 · 
x-jla

Well, it’s important to know if we are seeing a sneak peek of the virus, or the tip of a much larger iceberg. The numbers, hospital rates, CFR determines the potential Stress on the system. I think much of the worry was based on a over exaggerated CFR and hospitalization rate because of limited testing that’s biased towards the most severe cases. If those numbers are adjusted, the worst case scenario is far less than what’s been projected. Of course any death is bad, but these hospitals are equipped to handle a certain case load. Many states are not overwhelmed. It’s really mostly places with high density because less hospitals per capita. Lower deaths is likely because of social distancing AND the fact that the virus is less deadly overall than anticipated. We don’t know how many NYers were infected yet. Standard testing of pregnant women seems to suggest 15% are positive and 80% have no symptoms at all. (probably not 100% representative of population but magnitudes higher than official numbers..) Fortunately, they are doing an antibody study in NY starting today of random population sample. It will be interesting to see results.

Apr 20, 20 11:04 am  · 
 · 
amarchy's comment has been hidden
amarchy

agree with you Everyday Architect. Loathe getting emails from management at midnight or  4am.

Apr 18, 20 3:47 pm  · 
 · 
curtkram

what i've learned is that you can save a draft and then send it at 8:00 the next morning

Apr 18, 20 5:01 pm  · 
 · 
tintt

I had a conference call on easter. Kinda ruins your day. I wish I was collecting unemployment.

Apr 18, 20 5:08 pm  · 
 · 

You are all slackers and lucky to be sooo spoiled, keep that in mind. You could be working at a grocery store or driving a truck right now. Just sayin'. You could even live in a country - OMG - that doesn't even know what an economy is or have Wuhan Virus testing ability....carry-on ;)

It appears at least your management is trying and what are you doing?

Apr 18, 20 5:25 pm  · 
 · 
curtkram

if you're waiting until easter to get your shit together, you aren't managing your time or resources well. that's not really 'trying.'

Apr 18, 20 5:30 pm  · 
 · 
tintt

For the record, I always email back right away especially at 4 am because that's when the work day starts for those of us who have careers and then also have to teach common core math during the day which involves drawing 51 circles and then x-ing one out and then counting the circles that aren't x-ed out to solve 51-1=?

Apr 18, 20 5:42 pm  · 
 · 

sounds like a lot of excuses. Wait, who works with who here? that escalated quickly.

Apr 18, 20 5:50 pm  · 
 · 
tintt

The answer is 50.

Apr 18, 20 5:53 pm  · 
 · 

well if you 50 circles I get it. I do! I used to play this game a lot in school.

Wolfenstein 3D | ClassicReload.com

. wait where am I PI



Apr 18, 20 5:55 pm  · 
 · 
drums please, Fab?

Castle Wolfenstein! YES!

Apr 19, 20 11:07 am  · 
 · 

we should get an archinect online Wolfenstein game going, like the old days in Studio?

Apr 19, 20 11:49 am  · 
 · 
Non Sequitur's comment has been hidden
Non Sequitur

Not related to layoffs, but is there really a % of the US population protesting against the C19 stayhome efforts? 

Apr 20, 20 6:49 am  · 
 · 
threeohdoor

A very small percentage, but yes. Many of these protests have facebook pages and websites set up in "dubious" fashion (ie - all registered in Florida). If the protesters were of any group other than your standard white person with a rifle wearing sunglasses and MAGA hats and cosplaying Call of Duty, I might give them a bit more leeway.

There is a mismatch between government bailout and aid, and the needs of the people and small business. For instance, my pediatrician wasn't able to get a loan through the SBA program and now...they might close in a couple months. People are rightfully pissed off about how inept and meager and confusing our governments (feds, state, local) have acted. People get irrational when they can't provide for themselves or their families. 

Apr 20, 20 8:35 am  · 
 · 
archi_dude

I believe they are mostly protesting restrictions that have increased even while the rate of new cases have fallen. Few are actually arguing for an end to mitigation efforts.

Apr 20, 20 8:43 am  · 
 · 
Bench

Yep, its real. Early indications suggest it's largely astroturfing spurred on by Koch-registered subsidiaries - similar to what threeohdoor mentioned, the facebook groups all tend to use essentially the same wording/language in their descriptions and demands, suggesting a centralized organizer cutting and pasting. Thanks 'Murica.

Apr 20, 20 8:44 am  · 
 · 
OneLostArchitect

Funded by George Soros. Yes.

Apr 20, 20 8:47 am  · 
 · 
Non Sequitur

Thanks for the POV. I assume the headlines that make their way up here pass through several click-bait filters to draw traffic.

Apr 20, 20 8:51 am  · 
 · 
square.

yes.. it's a zombie style reawakening of the tea-party movement, its last stand because their leader and party has all but eviscerated their central platform of small government.

Apr 20, 20 9:19 am  · 
 · 
Bench

^ ^ Was also hearing the reports this morning that it's essentially the old tea-party groups recongregating. Thanks Obama!

Apr 20, 20 9:47 am  · 
 · 
Chad Miller

Yeah we had a 'protest' here to re open our economy. The day after I was walking my dog at a park while I wore a mask. A man and a woman came up behind me and proceeded to cough on me (they weren't wearing masks). I sprang away from them and told them to stop. The man called me a 'liberal sheep' then said 'I'm 'gonna give you the 'rona', and tried to cough on me again. I told him to stay away from me. Then the man reached twords my dog and said 'come here, I'm gonna give you something'. My dog hid behind me.  I drew my pistol and ordered the man to stop and back up.  I detained the pair and then, called the cops and they where arrested for assault and making terrioristic threats. 


This is the type of crap that happens because of our president.   

Apr 20, 20 10:39 am  · 
 · 
x-jla

^you wouldn’t happen to be Jussie Smollet?

Apr 20, 20 10:41 am  · 
 · 
x-jla

Jk, you should have called police on them. They are charging people with terrorism for shit like that.

Apr 20, 20 10:42 am  · 
 · 
Non Sequitur

Chad, are you not allowed to shoot them in this situation? Self-defense and whatnot... at least in a knee cap or something. Poor doggie.

Apr 20, 20 10:46 am  · 
 · 
Bench

Sorry to hear Chad, that is fucked up.

Apr 20, 20 10:54 am  · 
 · 
OneLostArchitect

Chad (Jussie Smollett)... this is MAGA country!

Apr 20, 20 10:58 am  · 
 · 
OneLostArchitect

Chad this has to be a joke right? lol

Apr 20, 20 10:59 am  · 
 · 
tintt

Yeah they are trying to solve the problem with memes, red hats, daisy dukes, and bad grammar.

Apr 20, 20 11:02 am  · 
 · 
tintt

And guns.

Apr 20, 20 11:03 am  · 
 · 
archanonymous

wow Chad that's pretty scary... not that you would actually contract or die from COVID-19, but just that its being politicized and weaponized so much...

Apr 20, 20 11:08 am  · 
 · 
Chad Miller

It's not a joke or fabrication. The couple was arrested and charged with assault and making terroristic threats.

I have no idea what political affiliation these two people have.  I do think they have mental issues and the current political climate encouraged their behavior.  

Apr 20, 20 12:14 pm  · 
 · 
Bench

"I have no idea what political affiliation these two people have."


...... I have a pretty good idea.

Apr 20, 20 1:09 pm  · 
 · 
Non Sequitur

Chad, I'm still waiting for the delayed april fools joke... Do you live in a town filled with Jawknee-type delusional wankers?

Apr 20, 20 1:27 pm  · 
 · 
x-jla

I’m sure they are not all there...my friend is a cop and some Hasidic Jewish kids were coughing on the police in nyc because they were defying the stay at home orders. The kids were like 10 years old. There are vids online of it.

Apr 20, 20 3:03 pm  · 
 · 
Non Sequitur

^Religion is expect from reason.

Apr 20, 20 3:19 pm  · 
 · 
Chad Miller

NS - we had one of those 'protests' here to open the economy up. Any time there is a rally or protest like this a few dickheads come out the next day an act dumb. Also a lot of lifted trucks with confederate flags and truck nuts.

Apr 20, 20 3:35 pm  · 
 · 
x-jla

Well, the protests are just the beginning. I’m guessing the lawsuits are going to be flooding in soon. Wonder if stores are making employees sign something to waive liability?

Apr 20, 20 3:50 pm  · 
 · 
x-jla

I’ve been wearing a mask to store. 50% of people will just brush right past you with no mask, grab shit off shelf 2’ away from you....people are really rude and annoying. Surprisingly, I’ve noticed a disproportionate amount of these mask less rude peolle are also the ones in the high risk category....fat people with carts full of unhealthy foods.

Apr 20, 20 3:56 pm  · 
 · 
x-jla

Guess not caring about health is the common thread.

Apr 20, 20 3:57 pm  · 
 · 
randomised

I found out that a little cough now and then will keep most people at a safe distance.

Apr 20, 20 4:01 pm  · 
 · 
randomised

And about stores making people sign something:

Apr 20, 20 4:03 pm  · 
 · 
x-jla

Those sneaky bastards lol.

Apr 20, 20 4:15 pm  · 
 · 

That last sentence feels pretty hollow after going through everything else, no?

Apr 20, 20 4:15 pm  · 
 · 
x-jla

Wow. That’s shitty for sure. A good case for unions. I like unions, just not mandatory ones. They are too powerful to be useful

Apr 20, 20 4:33 pm  · 
 · 
OneLostArchitect's comment has been hidden
OneLostArchitect

I cannot wait for Joe Biden to become president!

Apr 20, 20 11:06 am  · 
 · 
Volunteer's comment has been hidden
Volunteer

In what town is it necessary to carry a gun for a walk in the park with your dog?

Apr 20, 20 1:20 pm  · 
 · 

All of them ... because America

Apr 20, 20 1:23 pm  · 
 · 
Non Sequitur

pew pew.

Apr 20, 20 1:26 pm  · 
 · 
Chad Miller

Required - no. However when all the local stores that carry firearms are sold out of handguns, short barreled shotguns, AR's and their associated ammo within 5 hours of the hint of a quarantine I decided I'd carry when I left the house.

I'm licensed and unlike most people,  trained quite extensively to carry a concealed firearm.  I do not like to carry but sometimes it's needed.     

Apr 20, 20 3:37 pm  · 
 · 

Chad, isn't that kind of the issue though? If the reaction to something uncertain like a pandemic or quarantine causes everyone to make a run on ammo and guns, and makes others like you feel it is needed to carry one (even if you don't like to) to leave the house and/or walk the dog ... as proto indicated further down the page has it gotten to the point of everything looking like a nail? I do think your comment above says a lot about some of the unfortunate side effects of gun ownership (though I suppose that is also up for debate ... many might think this is exactly how it should be).

I'll reiterate proto's statement as my own ... that I'm glad you and your dog are safe.

Apr 20, 20 4:27 pm  · 
 · 
x-jla

I don’t carry gun, but definitely feel safer with gun in home.

Apr 20, 20 4:30 pm  · 
 · 
Chad Miller

EA - See my response to Rick below. As for your second comment - you may be correct. A lot of people out here carry firearms - both concealed and openly (it's legal here). The main reason I carry is other firearm owners. I'd say 90% of people who carry out here (concealed and open) have no idea how to use firearm for self defense and the limitations in using one. Using a firearm in self defense is a scary, ugly, and final response. The vast majority of people out here don't understand that.

Apr 20, 20 5:27 pm  · 
 · 
CodesareFUN's comment has been hidden
CodesareFUN

In America, the line “is that a gun in your pants or are you just happy to see me?” Is almost always a gun.

Apr 20, 20 1:24 pm  · 
 · 
CodesareFUN

Also a not insignificant number of people believe this is the 19th coronavirus and have Guns. That’s a scary thought.

Apr 20, 20 1:25 pm  · 
 · 
x-jla

Not scary at all. Most gun owners are law abiding people. It’s the criminals that are scary.

Apr 20, 20 3:00 pm  · 
 · 
x-jla

The ones the liberals are trying to release from jail because of the virus.

Apr 20, 20 3:00 pm  · 
 · 
Chad Miller

In my case I am jut happy to see you. 8-)

Apr 20, 20 3:40 pm  · 
 · 
b3tadine[sutures]

Jlax, stop being a fuck nut. The only people I want out of jail are non violent offenders. Stupid drug crimes, shop lifting, etc...

Apr 20, 20 4:39 pm  · 
 · 
x-jla

I agree on that. Just stirring the shit. Don’t you get that by now?

Apr 20, 20 5:11 pm  · 
 · 
x-jla

Sometimes I really believe what I say, sometimes I’m dampening what seems like an echo chamber, other times I’m being your whetstone, and Sometimes I just want to annoy people. It depends on my mood and/or THC intake. I think those peolle should be out of jail with or without covid.

Apr 20, 20 5:16 pm  · 
 · 
x-jla

Except Cosby. That dude is trying to get out. FOH

Apr 20, 20 5:17 pm  · 
 · 
b3tadine[sutures]

Dude, my patience is tried. I have yet to choke someone out yet, or pull a gun, Chad sorry you had to do that. I'm fortunate to have a pit bull, and wear my jiu-jitsu club hat and pullover when walking in public, but mostly I carry a NJ-tude, and a 260 6'2" frame that's typically all I need. So when I read about maga types roaming stupid, I get amped about people who are in jail, for shit most whytes won't be in jail for, or people can't bond out because they're poor.

Apr 20, 20 5:21 pm  · 
 · 
x-jla

You get to free all black people in jail for weed, or Free joe exotic and lock up Carol Baskin? Pick one.

Apr 20, 20 6:37 pm  · 
 · 
b3tadine[sutures]

Not even a question.

Apr 20, 20 6:57 pm  · 
 · 
Chad Miller

bt3 - I'm a big guy as well 6'-3", 260 pounds. I have a very affable face though - some say teddy bear like. Also my dog is an 18 pound beagle / pug mix. Apparently those things and my face-mask being a rainbow patter made the two people think I was soft. Whoopsie on them.

Apr 21, 20 2:46 pm  · 
 · 
proto's comment has been hidden
proto

coming to this story late...sort of surprised the cough terrorists weren't of the gun toting political persuasion in this story. I'm sorry they were assholes, but pulling a lethal weapon on them seems a bit much, no?

Apr 20, 20 3:00 pm  · 
 · 
x-jla

I’d probably just kick him in the gonads.

Apr 20, 20 3:12 pm  · 
 · 
Non Sequitur

What the point of arming yourself with silly murder toys if you can't use them whenever?

Apr 20, 20 3:20 pm  · 
 · 
Chad Miller

That's your view. My view (ant the police) was that if someone was that deranged to do that who the heck knows what else they where going to do. Also I was unable to get away without going right past the couple. I had no idea if they where armed.

Apr 20, 20 3:41 pm  · 
 · 
proto

Yes, it is pure opinion & I wasn't there. My reaction from hundreds of miles away is this is the unfortunate side of gun ownership: everything looks like a nail. My guess is with different tools you'd have a different decision matrix that would still result in a safe dog walk. Again, pure speculation on my part...but not necessarily wrong because of that speculation either. I'm glad you and your pup are safe.

Apr 20, 20 3:53 pm  · 
 · 
Chad Miller

Totally understand. When you carry a firearm every conflict is lethal. Hence why I was trying to get away and not interact with the couple. They literally boxed me into a corner. After the first interaction with the couple my dogie and I went on ahead. We stopped at a tree that was near the fence line. The fence itself made a little box around the tree on three sides with the 24" dia tree in the center of the open end. My dog went to pee on the far side of the tree, I followed him in. Then the couple came up and stood on each side of the tree - blocking me in. They confronted me again - I again told them to back off. Things then unfolded as I said above.

Apr 20, 20 4:14 pm  · 
 · 
tintt

Do you think they targeted you because you were wearing a mask?

Apr 20, 20 4:41 pm  · 
 · 
Chad Miller

Rick - to be fair I should have written 'every conflict is potentially lethal when you carry a firearm' You're carrying a firearm - if you get into a fight the firearm can be taken away from you and used against you. You now have to protect your firearm. If someone tries to grab it you now have a life or death situation. When you carry you simply try to avoid any conflict that could get physical. Somebody calls you a dickhead - you just ignore them - walk away. Somebody shoves you - ignore them - walk away. Somebody cuts you off - you do nothing. You continue in that line of conflict avoidance until you cannot get away.


Any form of violence is the last resort.  

Apr 20, 20 4:52 pm  · 
 · 
Chad Miller

tint - I think so.

Apr 20, 20 4:53 pm  · 
 · 
Chad Miller

Rick - Oh, and my words where 'please don't cough on me' ,'stay away from me will you?'  'stop following me', 'stay away', 'back off', 'back up, hand on your head'. 'kneel down, cross your ankles', 'don't move, I'm calling the police'

Apr 20, 20 5:05 pm  · 
 · 
Chad Miller

Rick - in response to your post edit about all conflicts be potentially lethal - you're wrong. It's that type of reasoning that leads to people being shot when there was a non lethal way to resolve the conflict. Just walk away if you can.

Apr 20, 20 5:37 pm  · 
 · 
Non Sequitur

it's the gun ricky. always has been.

Apr 20, 20 11:26 pm  · 
 · 
Non Sequitur

Ricky B: "The gun is just an object. The problem is the people not the object. Get rid of the objects and people will still kill but with their hands and feet. Humans have a long history of killing long before the invention of the gun."

Correct but the gun makes it 8 millions times easier and effortless... ditto when you have a culture so entrenched in gun right religion that they can't understand basic logic.


Apr 21, 20 12:00 am  · 
 · 
Non Sequitur

Because my view is far better and more rational than yours Ricky. That's why. Mine does not accept the inane gun religion as status quo. Ill conceived POV like yours, although unlikely to change, deserve ridicule.

Apr 21, 20 6:28 am  · 
 · 
Chad Miller

Rick - I did not imply that everyone who carries a firearm uses to shoot people - quite the opposite. I said that when you carry a firearm you need to avoid all conflicts and make damn sure you NEVER get into a fight as carrying a firearm has the potential to turn any such physical altercation into a lethal one.


It is quite clear from your comments Rick that you have no experience either carrying, or using a concealed handgun - that's ok!  Owning firearms can be a touchy subject, carrying a concealed handgun even more so.  I understand that you're passionate about this but in the future please, don't be a dick.  


Apr 21, 20 10:20 am  · 
 · 
Non Sequitur

In Ricky's idiotic and misinformed world, there is a murderous street gang around everycorner. Sometimes several it seems. Let's fill our residences with all sorts of murder toys for the illusion of safety. M'rica! Your 2a religion is equally hilarious as it is sad.

Apr 21, 20 1:40 pm  · 
 · 
Chad Miller

Rick - I was polite to you, I'm afraid not I have to tell you to shut the fuck up. You have no idea what you're talking about. You've clearly never carried a handgun for self defense, never had any training how to use a handgun, and never been involved in a physical altercation, let alone a gunfight. You're talking out of your ass. Stop.

Apr 21, 20 2:37 pm  · 
 · 
Non Sequitur

Ricky, the guns here are directly sourced from the US via regular smuggling not some shady gov conspiracy. It's because people have this inane cavalier obsession with guns that murder toys are so easily accessible they bleed outside of the borders your dumb 2a "protects". Guess what tho, no one here is banging on their chests and arming themselves out of fear. We've evolved socially beyond such false sense of securities.

Apr 21, 20 2:39 pm  · 
 · 
Chad Miller

/\ Exactly.


NS - is Rick mentally disturbed?  Seriously.  Why hasn't this guy been removed from this site.

Apr 21, 20 2:41 pm  · 
 · 
Non Sequitur

Chad, we've already established Ricky's intellectual short-comings... At least we can all rest soundly knowing the allowance he receives from his parents is insufficient to purchase and stock murder toys.

Apr 21, 20 3:16 pm  · 
 · 
Non Sequitur

Ricky, again, these are not necessary scenarios because we've evolved beyond such silly fantasies. It's not my fault you're so incredibly backwards and outdated.

Apr 21, 20 3:18 pm  · 
 · 
Non Sequitur

Ricky, you consistently amaze me at how you consistently are horribly wrong about everything.

Apr 21, 20 4:04 pm  · 
 · 
Non Sequitur

We, as in those who are not locked into 2a religious fantasies, have socially evolved. Not my fault you've decided to stay behind.

Apr 21, 20 4:32 pm  · 
 · 
Chad Miller

Rick - shut the fuck up. You know NOTHING about defensive combat handgun training.  Also, learn write posts in clear, concise, and short manner.

You know I only skim your vomit of letters each time you post such garbage.  Even then I can tell you're a moron with serious mental issues.  Stop posting here and get professional help.  

Apr 21, 20 5:47 pm  · 
 · 
Chad Miller

Rick - skimming your posts is more than sufficient to get what you're trying to say - key work trying - your writing style is lacking in substance and is akin to arch-babble . 

 Now kindly shut the fuck up about firearms - you're talking out of your ass.

Try to respond in clear and concise manner, 150 words or less.  

Apr 22, 20 10:00 am  · 
 · 
Everyday Architect's comment has been hidden

I know a guy who was working in TX as an architect during the recession in the early 90s. He said that it was mostly oil money that kept things going for them down there. WTI (West Texas Intermediate) crude oil is at -$37 a barrel. Yes, that's a negative in front of the dollar sign.

Apr 20, 20 3:28 pm  · 
 · 
square.

kicking a bad drug habit is painful

Apr 20, 20 3:45 pm  · 
 · 
CodesareFUN

Clean urine is more valuable than oil.

Apr 20, 20 4:49 pm  · 
 · 
Chad Miller

I'll sell you my clean urine, only $100 for 3 oz.

Apr 20, 20 4:58 pm  · 
 · 
OneLostArchitect

Chad... will that be a in a Gerber bottle? Also will you provide a Bic lighter with that purchase?

Apr 20, 20 5:09 pm  · 
 · 
Chad Miller

Sure! Oh your wee test may show that you have type 1 diabetes though . . .

Apr 20, 20 5:11 pm  · 
 · 
OneLostArchitect

Its cool... I just need to make sure the urine is lukewarm.

Apr 20, 20 5:18 pm  · 
 · 
x-jla

That sounds more like a kink?

Apr 20, 20 5:19 pm  · 
 · 
Chad Miller

Actually it's big business.

Apr 20, 20 5:28 pm  · 
 · 
OneLostArchitect

jla you never had to take a urine test? They take the temp of the urine. Usually druggies will take a flick of their Bic to the Gerber bottle to warm it up.

Apr 20, 20 5:29 pm  · 
 · 
Chad Miller

Or they wear an external bladder designed to use your body heat to bring the temp of the fake urine up to your body temp. I know of several government employees that use the above method to pass piss tests.

Apr 20, 20 5:41 pm  · 
 · 
OneLostArchitect

Depends on the testing agency. Sometimes they have a window on the bathroom to observe the act. If that is the case you will need that bladder system with a ummm... fake prosthetic...

Apr 20, 20 5:50 pm  · 
 · 
Chad Miller

Heard of that too.

Apr 20, 20 6:10 pm  · 
 · 
b3tadine[sutures]'s comment has been hidden
b3tadine[sutures]
JLC-1

that's the only metric necessary now.

Apr 20, 20 6:06 pm  · 
 · 
b3tadine[sutures]

It's good, but like any metric you can't read too much into this, until we are testing everyone. That's the only metric that matters, just look at Germany.

Apr 20, 20 6:13 pm  · 
 · 

Between News and being in the tri-state area (NJ, NY, CT) I can tell you that graph matches whats happening 100%. the Germans actually have this under control, their fatality rate is lower - roughly - US as at 5% (JH map) and Germany 3% (forget China, those numbers are meaningless, I've been there - even though they are at US levels, wee bit higher)

Apr 20, 20 7:13 pm  · 
 · 
JLC-1

yes, testing more is necessary.

Apr 20, 20 7:13 pm  · 
 · 

if you need a movie to explain this - R-nought Contagion Scene



Apr 20, 20 7:14 pm  · 
 · 
archi_dude

So attempting to reduce some screen time. Even with testing can you avoid the resurgence Singapore is having? Won't you just be perpetually locked in a cycle of reinstituing lockdowns until a vaccine?

Apr 20, 20 7:34 pm  · 
 · 

not unless you test archi_dude. that's the point. if you can do immediate testing and control those who go back to work who either immune or not infected and find a "comfortable" rate of hospitalizations and deaths (as bad as that sounds) you can control the situation.

Apr 20, 20 9:37 pm  · 
 · 
curtkram

thermal imaging cameras are getting good enough to reliably test for fever too. i think they're doing this in china, and maybe amazon has something similar. just put the camera and a monitor at the front desk and you'll know if you or anyone else is running a temperature.

Apr 21, 20 7:43 am  · 
 · 
Chad Miller

Thanks for the link b3t!

Apr 21, 20 2:38 pm  · 
 · 
liberty bell's comment has been hidden
liberty bell

I’m confused why Ohio is doing so poorly, I thought they instituted lockdown the day before Indiana did? Better go double check...

Apr 21, 20 7:18 am  · 
 · 
archi_dude's comment has been hidden
archi_dude

LA country just released their anti-body results. What's 617/440,000?

Apr 21, 20 9:36 am  · 
 · 
archi_dude

Yes yes spelling error.

Apr 21, 20 9:37 am  · 
 · 
x-jla

Yup. 55x more people than confirmed cases. If death rate in LA is 4.2, and there are in fact 55x more cases, then adjusting the denominator brings cfr down to 0.076 which is lower than seasonal flu? Again,

Apr 21, 20 11:38 am  · 
 · 
x-jla

I’ll ask, if China KNEW about 50% of cases that were asymptotic, why did they hide them from the denominator if their propaganda goal was to downplay severity of the virus? That’s suspect

Apr 21, 20 11:39 am  · 
 · 
x-jla

Anyway, the NYC tests will likely be even higher because of the density. Waiting for that.

Apr 21, 20 11:40 am  · 
 · 
archi_dude

If it's true it likely means NYC will have herd immunity by June? 10,009 (current deaths / .0018 (possible actual fatality rate = 5.7m actual cases / 8 mil residents = 70% immunity?

Apr 21, 20 12:38 pm  · 
 · 
x-jla

The LA study was done by USC? Some media outlets are politicizing it already. Daily Kos wrote a shit article accusing the scientist that did the Santa Clara stadium

Apr 21, 20 1:51 pm  · 
 · 
x-jla

*study of being a “trumpster”. Whatever that means. They tried to discredit it. What ridiculous times we live in when even something like
this gets politicized.

Apr 21, 20 1:52 pm  · 
 ·