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COVID-19 Lay-off Thread

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randomised

Not laid off but self-employed/freelance ;) Was quite busy transferring out of architecture and move more into consulting/design thinking/research recently, chaired an international jury at a global design event, wrote some articles for a magazine and two major design and engineering consulting firms were seriously working on creating a tailor made position, but all meetings might have been in vain since CVID hit the fan ... and everyone got (at least) a bit chilly feet. Thankfully I live in a normal country with healthcare and social security so no worries there. The other plus side, am most likely immune now for SARS-CoV-2 (this corona-season?) and my BMI went down, so that's nice.

Apr 6, 20 4:20 pm  · 
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axonapoplectic

So you think you had covid or do you know for sure? my doctor thinks I had a “mild” case earlier last month, but I didn’t get tested because it was never bad enough for me to go to the ER. I would like the antibody test to become widely
available so I can know for sure.

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randomised

Didn't get tested unfortunately but had some of the symptoms myself (while I got a flu shot earlier this season to rule that out), my girlfriend got almost all of the symptoms including obscure ones as losing smell and taste and even developed pneumonia, but no test either.

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robhaw

It's good that you are back, now I can ask someone my Dutch related questions. Hope your girlfriend is OK.

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x-jla

I think I had a mild case as well. No guarantees about immunity yet...I’m definitely going to get antibody test so I can donate plasma if I truly did have it.

 · 
randomised

thanks Rob fire away! and she's fine now.

 · 
randomised

would love that immunity test as well, can come in handy to get new work too

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archi_dude's comment has been hidden
archi_dude

So when can we start admitting that bar closures and closing large events were enough and a full lockdown wasn't necessary to slow the spread? NY times tracker shows a slowdown in every state starting last Monday the 31st. 2 weeks prior, the lag time of infection to detection, most states were still business as usual. 

Apr 7, 20 9:23 am  · 
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x-jla

Slow down is likely because of the closures that happened around 2-3 weeks ago...which also happens to be the max incubation time. Seems like it was worth it.

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tduds

I'd rather have overreacted than underreacted.

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archi_dude

Again 2 weeks from that slowdown on the 31st, most of the country was business as usual with only a few states doing some work remotely and bar closures. so 3 weeks would be just the handwashing and awareness slowing it down Jlax. Tduds, valid but when do we admit it was overreacting and stop using a shotgun to remove a tumor.

 · 
tduds

July, maybe.

 · 
square.

virtually no one in nyc would agree with your assessment. sending millions of people into work on crowded trains, buses etc. would have resulted in something infinitely worse than we are seeing now. the hospitals are at max capacity. our closest hospital is refusing new patients. i'll take whatever you're calling an overreaction anyday to seeing 30k people die in the city (would be almost 60k with today's numbers) like in 1918.

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archi_dude

Not arguing to go back to full normal. Just saying that even in New York the timeline and numbers show that people working from home if they can, closure of restaurants and bars and discontinuing large events was enough to bend the curve. NY waited too long to implement that. But the numbers are also showing that the full
lockdowns aren't needed so when do we realize that we're creating much larger issues?

 · 
Bench

Politely - square's assessment is much closer to reality than yours for NYC. The numbers are still going up. And it is still spreading. Listen, I'd love to be back to work as normal too. But your suggestion is just plain irresponsible.

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archi_dude

And you dont think advocating a lopsided response and an economic collapse isnt?

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Bench

Not sure why you're so willing to risk people's safety on this.

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archi_dude

The current approach risking just as much safety longterm. Merely pointing out that it's probably time to have a discussion on a balanced approach. The curve is flattening, the numbers and timeline show it happened with much looser controls, in an effort to avoid far greater safety risks on a much larger scale wouldnt it be prudent to take balanced view of things. Rather than declaring anyone with that view is a murderer?

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tduds

It's probably time for people who are professionals in this area of study to have that discussion, and I'm willing to trust that they are. What the hell do I, an architect, know about any of this? Pushing my 'intuition' into the public conversation is unhelpful at best and harmful at worst.

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tduds

I'm no economist but it seems to me like the overwhelming uncertainty & productivity-loss caused by rolling waves of death and sickness over the next 18-24 months would be a bigger drain on the economy than 6-8 weeks of everybody just chillin.' & if the people whose job it is to make these predictive models say that's what it'll take, then I'll grit my teeth & bear it.

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archi_dude

Now that's a real response. I would like to see more conversation on that now that it seems everyone is chilling and there was an effect a few weeks before everyone was on mandatory chill out time.

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square.

what are you talking about? we have yet to hit peak in ny and started what you're calling "mandatory chill time" on march 20th, though some businesses started phasing in that week before. we are only just this week beginning to see the positive effects of social distancing and shutting everything down. you can't superimpose what is happening to the rest of the country on ny.. we ARE the epicenter now. and in the hardest hit area, the shutdown is working and saving lives. also- if you're referring to a "slowdown" as the orange bar that tracks the rate of growth, that is only indicating how quickly # of total cases are doubling... there is still a steep positive growth. it's good to see that the rate of cases doubling is slowing down (it can't grow forever..) but we're still adding more cases everyday. until that number cases per day starts decreasing, this is far from over. and another question- if what you describe in ny isn't a "full shut down," than what is? where is this place that needs a more balanced approach? we have yet to see the full effects in states that have had more lax approaches; just wait.

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x-jla

I think we need to do whatever to beat this thing for a few reasons, and even if it turns out less deadly than media is reporting when denominator is expanded as antibody testing becomes more widespread. 1) save lives obviously. 2) unite the nation in a shared goal that requires some voluntary sacrifice 3) prepare for future pandemics and disasters. It’s better safe than sorry....but other than the real economic turmoil this is causing...we will come out of it with a can do spirit that’s been absent since the end of ww2. With that, I anticipate a fast and strong economic recovery with a new revival of manufacturing and infrastructure.

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revolutionary poet

Just an idea if you're out of work in NYC.

Find out which firms have essential projects still going on.

See map:

https://www1.nyc.gov/assets/buildings/html/essential-active-construction.html 

The go to either:

http://a810-bisweb.nyc.gov/bis...

or

https://a810-dobnow.nyc.gov/pu...


Find the Applicant of Record's address.  Send them your CV and resume.

Apr 7, 20 9:25 am  · 
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sp429

Thanks for this, a virus's virus

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tduds

Officially no layoffs or pay cuts for April. Remains to be seen what May brings. Plus my wife's landscape design company signed three new jobs last week... all these people stuck at home looking at their backyards must've started getting ideas.

Cautiously optimistic is the mood of the household this week.

Apr 7, 20 11:01 am  · 
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Chad Miller

I'm being pessimistic and planning on setting up the capabilities to do contract work for other firms in the state.

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tintt

I had a job come back last week, one came back this week, and have leads on several more. End of March didn't look so good but spring into summer is. Manufacturing, institutional, and heathcare related work - all with existing buildings.

 · 

quick update from our end: the rules around the PPP program changed and, voila, we were eligible. we got our application into our bank (smaller, regional, not one of the big banks) 2 days before the program officially opened. we were told our portion was "allocated" on sunday late.

however, i’m going to tell you that unless they open the taps up again nationally, it’s probably too late for this PPP loan. long and short from what we heard from our bank about the program:

the whole thing was way oversubscribed, even before the big banks were getting applications in. 


the banks are losing money (literally) with every application as they are the servicer, not the feds. the interest rate and forgiveness portions mean they’ll probably never see a dime on them. 

most of the big banks are also concerned that all these loans on their books will prohibit or severely restrict their ability to do other loans until they get cleared. this wasn't clear in the initial guidance given to the banks and seems to have just been cleared up yesterday (it won't count). this is a monster concern for the big banks. 

most of the big banks are "slow-rolling" their participation for that reason. 

we were number 1800 or so in our bank's system. they had 6000 applications as of saturday morning. again, this is a regional bank at best. 

that said, our bank was thinking that a second wave would be rolled out in the next stimulus bill. so: have all your financials ready - the more complete the paperwork, the better your chances. And maybe look for a smaller bank to go through - ours went a little farther for us because we’ve had a long time relationship but I’m sure they’d be open to new business. and… once we see the final paperwork, I’ll share what’s truly involved with the loan forgiveness portion. 


just some observations. 

Apr 7, 20 12:43 pm  · 
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curtkram

do you think this will freeze up construction loans, or does that ultimately come out of a different pot?

 · 

from what i took away, definitely different pots but the issue is that there's only so much debt they can take on relative to their cash/capitalization (as a whole). it could affect their ability to take on other loans. so, for example, wells fargo said that based their balance sheet, they would only take on 10B worth of loans for this program, for which they've already processed enough applications to hit that limit and they are not taking on any additional PPP loans.

 · 

BOA seems to be doing the most of the big banks. as a whole, though, this whole thing seems both rushed (understandable) but SBA was literally changing loan terms every 12 hours. in that regard, i'm not surprised that the big banks said 'well, let's see where the final rules land and we'll formulate our response afterwards' - it could have been a huge unintentional exposure for them.

 · 
TED

Let's all remember it was you, I and many others who bailed out the banks in 2008 - don't shed a tear for the banks -

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thisisnotmyname

Our little big bank Regions Bank strung us along from the first day PPP became available on April 3rd right up until funds ran out today. We actually had an appointment with a banker at 9am on 4/3 that the Regions banker didn't show up to. After that, we applied online, uploaded a slew of documents and got a bunch of emails saying basically "We're processing your loan but it's just such hard work!" Meanwhile, several little banks nearby took care of any and all applicants in 2-3 days.

 · 
code

It's not unlike the HAMP program back in 09' . banks would slow roll, It ws people with incomplete paper work that gor hammered with foreclosure - best bet is smaller banks. The office I work for is working with a smaller bank. Wells Fargo? BofA.?

Apr 7, 20 12:52 pm  · 
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Apple_Juice_Yes

I work for a large architecture firm. We have many offices throughout the US and the world. It is a firm most have heard of.

Many employees got laid off throughout the country. 20 were laid off from my office in California. Higher ups got pay cuts. 

I didn't think this would happen to a seemingly financially stable firm like mine. Those who think they have job security, think again. This is only the beginning.

Apr 8, 20 8:54 pm  · 
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wurdan freo

Not architecture, but REI just furloughed 11,000 employees nationwide for three months. If this things drags on its going to get real ugly. 

Talked to a local architect today, business as usual with a couple clients in wait and see mode.

Apr 8, 20 9:17 pm  · 
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I just ordered some stuff from REI during their spring sale. It arrived about a week ahead of schedule ... maybe they're only keeping people working in shipping and warehousing. Making it architecture related ... anyone think this will delay their new headquarters design? I think NBBJ has the project ...

Edit: Yes they do ... http://www.nbbj.com/news/2017/3/23/reis-new-nature-centered-headquarters-design-featured-in-the-puget-sound-business-journal/

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bowling_ball

No layoffs (yet). Came to report that today I signed a new (small) contract with an existing client, and did a walk through with a new potential client for a commercial renovation. It's not all terrible news out there. Thank goodness. Keep your chins up.

Apr 9, 20 2:51 am  · 
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bad_hombre

I work at a large firm in NYC with over 150 people on staff and a pretty well known starchitect at the head . Definitely a firm you've heard of if you work in NYC. I thought we'd be safe because of the number and diversity of our projects, but today 80 of us were laid off, myself included. Everyone else took a pay cut. A lot of academic projects are being put on hold, and other projects are on pause. 

Definitely sucks, but as a recent graduate I think this is putting a lot of things into perspective. This profession is messed up and precarious in so many ways; it's forward-looking in so many respects, but in so many others that are very fundamental it is as archaic and stuck in its ways as ever. I hope this situation gives all of the leaders in our profession impetus to consider how we think of ourselves and the work we do. 

I think the run-of-the-mill, crazy hours and thin margins can't possibly survive another event on this scale, which is sure to happen again in our lifetimes.

Apr 9, 20 11:35 am  · 
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archanonymous

sorry to hear that, and i'll second hoping something good comes of it. My career was definitely shaped by the 2008 recession quite a bit, but seemed to have turned out ok.

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thisisnotmyname

A lot of clients have decided to skip payment of invoices for work architects did in February and March. That kind of behavior puts impossible financial pressure on even the biggest practices.

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bad_hombre

Yeah it's becoming more and more apparent. It just makes me wonder why the typical architecture business model is so, for lack of a better word, dumb, when a lot of the people we work are so much better positioned financially and from a business model point of view. I guess some things are just the way they are because they came to be that way over time, but when my firm's penthouses sell for tens of millions of dollars, it makes me wonder why architects' salaries are so comparatively meager compared to the rest of the professional world.

 · 
code

Well, I too, worked for a major firm in SF, when the bottom fell out in 08'. It took 1 year before I got another architecture job, and another 5 years to get back to where I was in 08'. You will need to be very persistent with your career from here on. Stay on top of technology, and be the best. Be willing to work long hours and weekends forever.

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square.

this pandemic has exposed the untenable nature of this profession. while i oppose everything the code presents as a solution to the problem (the exceptional meritocracy), they are not wrong in that many will have to make these sorts of choices in order to keep paying the bills. it's going to be a rude awakening for firms when students wake up and stop paying a mortgage for a degree with such a terrible return. i wouldn't be surprised if this crisis is the beginning of the end.

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Chad Miller

I am not willing to work long hours and weekends (for free) forever. I will only do 50 plus hour weeks three times a year. I will only work two weekends a year. I'm not a partner so it's not needed unless projects aren't managed correctly. PERIOD.

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bad_hombre

I also am not willing to give my life to this profession. If it comes to the point where we can only find work if we're willing to routinely work long hours and weekends, I will simply find something else to do for a living.

We've put ourselves through school, we're all smart and capable people who have invested a lot of hard work in ourselves, and have many talents to offer. Chad is right-so many of the weekends and long hours I've had to work have been completely preventable. Why isn't overtime pay standard? I'll work; just pay me for it. The 1% squeezes so much free labor out of this profession.

I love architecture and believe in it as strongly as ever, but I don't think we should feel like we need to degrade ourselves to work in this field.

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square.

alduran you are right, it's hardly worth it for most. Chad I agree, and work similar hours. very few days past office hours, extremely rare weekends. but I worry this is the exception and not the norm. being in nyc the majority of my peers are working ridiculous hours (and envious of my situation), and many are echoing what a recent feature on this website said... to be a great worker, go the extra mile, step it up, etc etc. aka turn up the exploitation. if anything i hope this will weed out the bad firms, but my gut tells me the change needs to come also from people like alduran no t willing to put up with the bullshit anymore.

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Apple_Juice_Yes

Over half of your firm got laid off? How much overhead did you guys carry? Jeez, that's definitely some irresponsible financial management.

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Doc Arch

Hmm.. just a guess based on speaking with friends in the NY area - I have a pretty good idea which firm you work for... I would imagine you're good at making cocktails and classical references?

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archi_dude

So a couple of points for things brought up here. I left architecture to work for a contractor 2 years ago as a field engineer/superintendent. I left during the "good times" this cycle because I saw how razor thing our margins were, how much debt we had, how little our management actually knew about building things and the people who did, got laid off because they were expensive when a few jobs went away. I realized if it was that precarious during "good times" the slightest hiccup was going to take it all down. On the contractor side, while we are just as exposed, it comes down to business models. The business models are just as important as the construction where as, the art side always wins in architecture and the business model is usually ignored, with needless reclines, redesigns and "hey let's do SD in sketchup and then remodel everything in Revit for CD's and blow the budget becuase the sketchup model is nonsense. Architecture is an art, a luxury and to think you'll get a middle class salary doing
grunt work at something that is a luxury just wont ever happe.

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archi_dude

Same with developers, business is the most important item because that's what let's you build. I'm not arguing that architecture isnt valuable, that's just reality of being an architect. It's mostly centered around an intangible item that is hard to value.

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revolutionary poet

in architecture, the majority of the OVERHEAD is staff.

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80 laid off out of 150. Just wanted to reiterate that percentage.

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Chad Miller

virus - staff are not overhead - staff are a resource. If your firm views staff as overhead then you're working at a shitty firm with moron 'leadership'.

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x-jla

Yes, when you do taxes and calculate overhead just leave staff out to be PC and make chad fell good.

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bad_hombre

People, it wasn't 80 out 0f 150. If you see my original post I noted that firm had more than 150 people. They ended up laying of roughly a little less than a third of the staff.

 · 
geezertect

Ah, yes, the age old debate about why architects don't get paid shit. Repeat after every payday: "Supply and demand

 · 
Chad Miller

jla-x - Don't be obtuse. It's not about being PC. If you treat your team like they are nothing more than a cost of doing business then as management you get what you deserve.

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square.

alduran- 1/3 would be 80/240. something about your calculations seem a bit off...

 · 
CodesareFUN

If a firm is laying off over half their staff right now, they weren’t managing things right to being with. Some layoffs/cuts are to be expects, but over half the firm? Here I was thinking less than 10% of staff plus (hopefully temporary) pay cut for all was bad...

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archi_dude

I dont understand any business less than 500 that is laying people off. There is free money to keep

 · 
archi_dude

your staff through the initial shutdown. The only thing I could think of t

 · 
archi_dude

*okay I seriously hate that I switched to android. But you get what I was trying to say.

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bad_hombre

Yes. My firm employed closer to 300 people if that helps. I just said over 150 in my original post to not cite an exact number. Ended up laying off little less than a third of staff.

 · 

I'm sorry, alduran, I did misread your statement! So not 50% laid off, less than 30%. Thank you for clarifying!

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revolutionary poet

Chad - resources are overhead - technically. but if you makes you feel better I'll explain it this way - staff are the majority of your costs, so if you don't have money you consolidate. Simple math.

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revolutionary poet

example: One seat will cost you about $500 for a desk, $200 in software, and let's just throw some random misc. in to add up to $1k a month. an employee as a W2 with health benefits will run you in the range of $5k to $10k a month. So let's say the average is $7500 and an employee and $1k for the seat - That's 88% for the human and 12% for what you want to call OVERHEAD. Cut one person you can probably cover your OVERHEAD for a few months. And if you don't have any work for the person you have to lay them off....the PPP is taking way too damn long anyway. Many banks are not even doing it including some big ones.

 · 
code

PPP isn't going to work for the majority of firms - most firms are too small for the banks, too much risk

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Chad Miller

virus - I understand all that. Most (stupid) business owners view overhead the cost of doing business that if reduced produce more profit. While staff are technically overhead they are the resource that makes your firm money and if managed correctly, profit. Obviously if your staff have no work then they are simply an expense and no amount of great management will make them profitable.

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square.

virus- for a large firm, good luck generating any kind of revenue to cover any overhead without staff. for smaller firms principals might be able to adjust their workload and pick up the slack. for larger firms, the situation is more akin to a factory- without staff, you can't generate a product (aka the drawing set). one way to view them is simply as overhead, but it's a dumb simplification of what they actually generate, which is not costs but value.

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msparchitect

Dang Doc beat me to it. But by your description bad_hombre, your firm knows a good martini. You'd think Bob could spare some coin to keep staff on. Such a shame.

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revolutionary poet

If it is Bob, that's one of the best paid and benefit offices in the city. At 80 persons, figure they are saving $500k+ a month in salaries+benefits.

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code

thisisnotmyname

A lot of clients have decided to skip payment of invoices for work architects did in February and March. That kind of behavior puts impossible financial pressure on even the biggest practices.

This is makes to where firms have to lay off and keep their best people to work longer hours - 

Apr 9, 20 12:41 pm  · 
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thisisnotmyname

And don't forget 20% pay cuts for the best people that don't get laid off.

 · 
code

better than working for free as some are

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thisisnotmyname

That would be me! As principal, I'm not taking a salary this quarter while I wait around on client payments, PPP, EIDL, etc.

 · 
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Apr 9, 20 4:24 pm  · 
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Dangermouse

50 person design build firm in NYC.


As of today, our entire fabrication team + CAD manager, office manager, receptionist, construction mangers and estimators have been laid off.  Currently, just over 50% of the team has been cut. Two junior designers laid off this week. 

All three of my projects are on hold.  A 100% DD set goes out today, then I have nothing on the schedule.    Fully expect to get a phone call from the managing partner this afternoon 

Apr 10, 20 2:08 pm  · 
 · 
square.

sounds like some tough decisions were made

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RickB-Astoria

Unfortunate outcome but I wish you, your family and your colleagues the best outcome under the given circumstances. It's a tough situation for pretty much the entire AEC field (architects, building designers, engineers, etc.) except those projects too essential to be put on hold or far enough along in the process to not be on hold except where governor's orders effectively put them on hold. At this time, I don't really see much of any kind of residential or light commercial projects for awhile. Might be a year or longer. So it's what I am expecting given the state of things are and the duration cycle(s) of this pandemic. It is possible that this stay home order and the domino effect may still be going well into summer in Oregon. I don't expect Kate Brown to lift that in Oregon until maybe Fall. It might be amended then but still with some impact on the social distancing criteria well into 2021. 

 · 
code

Balkins, Actually, and in the Bay Area, residential that has a minimum of 10% Below Market is allowed to proceed in construction - The firm I work for designs BMR housing and so far so good.

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code

It also depends on when Newsome lifts the stay home order too

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RickB-Astoria

While that is true, and for simplicity sake, I didn't get into all the nuance of all the states but even then, with or without executive orders outright halting construction, a lot of these projects are put on hold because of a variety of financial reasons largely because of the coronavirus pandemic.

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RickB-Astoria

Since my building design business services area in both Oregon and Washington (due to locality), there are effects on the business from the executive orders in Washington state. Technically, most of the country but to be honest, much of what we are experiencing is largely experienced across the world. People I communicate with in China and Belgium and other places are experiencing similar "stay home" orders. This is really a world wide matter not just our little corner of the globe.

"In general, commercial and residential construction is not authorized under the proclamation because construction is not considered to be an essential activity." Governor Office of State of Washington. (source link: https://www.kitsapsun.com/story/news/2020/03/27/construction-projects-gov-inslee-washington-executive-orders-coronavirus/2929956001/ )

You can see the impact. While Oregon doesn't explicitly shut down construction, it has indirectly slowed down.

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RickB-Astoria

There is basically financial and psychological based responses in these times of uncertainty.

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x-jla's comment has been hidden
x-jla

Republicans are really bad at science, and Democrats are really bad at math.  This crisis shows their complete shortcomings.  The media is a complete joke.  Fox obsession over providing the legitimacy of an obscure drug touted by lord Trump...and msnbc/cnn obsessed with it not working even though doctors are using it with moderate success.  Over inflated case fatality rates going completely unchecked.  The complete lack of common sense with regard to “opening the economy” on one side, and the complete lack of basic 3rd grade math regarding  “lack of testing” and the likelihood of a very biased denominator.  The economic toll this is taking is just unbelievable.  If it turns out that a large portion of the population is infected, and suffered mild-no symptoms, and the cfr is something around .2, the economic toll will likely cause more long term health damages.  We can see the connection of health and economics in the Bronx and NOLA.   We need random sampling NOW.   

Apr 10, 20 6:17 pm  · 
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code

Exactly, Unemployed people lose their health insurance and won't go to the doctor anyway because it cost too much, get sick and soon you have an even greater order of magnitude of sick people

 · 
revolutionary poet
RickB-Astoria

I think we are still in a premature state to be prescribing a particular drug and Donald Trump should SHUT THE F--- UP about what drugs to use. That should be entirely decided by real professionals. In short, be careful. IGNORE whatever DONALD J. DUFUS..... the President of the United Stupids A--h*les says regarding the matter. Medical professionals would be the ones you should listen to. There is even caution by medical professionals regarding anything regarding drugs to use. There is NO definitive drug for medication in regards to coronavirus (COVID-19). There has to be at least 2-3 different drug based medications that can be safely prescribed before ANY is to be prescribed as there has to be alternate options for doctors to prescribe in case a patient is allergic to one drug medication option or that it can't be used with the other drugs the patient maybe taking as part of existing prescriptions. NONE of this is vaccination. Therefore be careful of listening to President Dufus.

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archi_dude

The guy was trying to offer some hope and constantly said it was up the doctor to decide. He cut the red tape so people who were about to die could try it. Secondly, just have a hard time thinking these are rational directions - "We must lockdown the whole country and risk a new worse great depression for the entire world and completely eradicate democracy from the face of the earth for a few months." From the guy who also thinks we should never shake hands EVER again. "There will be 1 million deaths with social distancing, wait 200,000, wait 100,000 wait 60k, actually Stanfdord medical experts think this might have been mistaken for the flu in California earlier, but we cant lift lockdowns!" "I think there could be a minute, tiny chance you could catch this disease we dont know very much about from sea foam." Shut down all beaches in California, ticket people $1000 for watching the sunset. Are we really being rational here?

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x-jla

I know, through talking to my nurse sister, that 9/10 people who call in with symptoms are told to stay home and rest and only come in if xyz happens...that’s a huge portion of the population who is symptomatic enough to call in. Add the 25-50% of cases who have no symptoms...and another x amount of people who have very mild or selective symptoms...that can be a 20x lower cfr. In my state cfr is about 1.5%. If the number of infected is really 20x higher, that’s a cfr of .075. Lower than Flu. If that’s the truth, not saying it definitely is, then it’s not worth destroying people’s businesses over and ruining people’s livelihoods. We need some quick fucking scientific studies to figure this shit out before we do more damage.

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x-jla

Now because it’s novel, and very contagious, everyone gets sick at once and it appears worse maybe than it really is.

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archi_dude

Jlax, they did test an entire demographic before but it was ignored in the media. The death rate on the cruise ship Diamond Princess was .5% becuase they tested every person on board and quarantined all of them. Now keep in mind that's. 5% of a cruise ship demographic which sorry to stereotype but old, fat americans. So probably even lower for a general population.

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archi_dude

Sorry 0.5% incase that's mistaken for a 5

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sameolddoctor

They ARE doing random sampling here in LA.

 · 
RickB-Astoria

There has always been exceptions to the normal policy including waiver but these cases are exceptions like trials. At some point, there has to be some people in trial with waivers signoffs when people knowing try a drug with knowledge of risks and indemnification clauses. Sure there is some of that but the prescribing chloroquine family of products with zinc or whatever for this virus is not ready for mainstream prescription. There hasn't been enough test results and studies against this virus for safe authorization of that medicine for mainstream prescription for medication against coronavirus (COVID-19 / SARS-COV2). In other words, it is not ready for prime time. There is also certain risks with taking chloroquine products and even quinine products. There are at least 2-3 other family of drugs that are being looked at that is not of the chloroquine/quinine families of drugs. This is all being done concurrently so there can be not only one but at least two or three possible drugs that could potentially be prescribed so there is not just one drug that passes the test but at least an alternative one that can be prescribed if the primary one can't be used with a particular patient for a variety of reasons. That is the medical standards we are at in this day an age compared to 100 YEARS ago.

 · 
RickB-Astoria

The reaction maybe harsh but this is also a disease that can rapidly infect more people.Say if you got infected, you infect three other people. Then they go around socializing with other people in close proximity and infect 3 other people each. By the 10th generation of infection, you may easily be responsible (both directly and indirectly) the infection of 59,000 individuals. The scary thing is, this can be all done in 24 HOURS from the time of your infection. Lets's assume this spread is done over 1 month's time. In two months, if we don't get it under control, 3.49 BILLION people can be infected but factor of geography and travel actually has a factor that slows things down. This stay at home order has actually slowed the pandemic so it wasn't the entire planet's population being infected. Self-quarantine and social distancing is a major factor behind keeping the disease under control. The lack of travel from a big city to small towns like Portlanders going to Astoria, Oregon or anywhere in the County has helped keep the reported cases low and thank you Portlanders [and vacinity residents] (most of you at least) for holding of travels to the beach and running around the Astoria-Warrenton-Gearhart-Seaside area. Our medical facilities would not be able to handle a hyper-accelerated pandemic.

 · 
RickB-Astoria

So far, we (Clatsop county) are locally (county wide as it appears) is at a statistical 0% CFR since the relatively small number of cases hasn't appeared to result in deaths at this time.

 · 
b3tadine[sutures]

We're not testing enough.

I have zero idea where your numbers are coming from.

Until we test at numbers that at a basic level that makes sense, we can't do what you're suggesting.

Again, testing.

Again; it's not about numbers of dying, it's about ability of hospitals to deal with the numbers of; sick, ICU, staff, PPE, respirators.

The economy; it can't handle if we don't bend this, if we go to early, we risk another catastrophe.


 · 
RickB-Astoria

Average infection rate during the outbreak has been roughly calculated on a basis that on average for each person infected will infect 2 to 3 people. So 2.5 in the middle but in some cases, the numbers average higher in denser populated areas. There is various online sources that points to the figure and my math of the ~59,000 is what you get if you do: 3x3x3x3x3x3x3x3x3x3. (I roughed the numbers. 59,049 people to be precise but it isn't that precise. Even if we go by a square exponential and they continued it and so on and so on so 2^10 equals 1024. So you can get figures between 1000 to maybe 60,000. So imagine that you infected 1,000 to 60,000 people by the 10th generation of people infected. 2^10 to 3^10. Think the math of infection rate and how quickly those people can infect other people and if we didn't give a shit or applied social distancing at all... the WHOLE planet can be infected in a very short time. If the whole world population was in a single building structure, the infection rate could be be a 100% population within a matter of days to a week or so. Given we have a broad planet, there is geographic isolation. Given where I am, we are geographically more isolated from the high population area and international travel. This is why we have had very little number of people tested while more densely populated areas like Portland and other major cities have been hotspots. Currently, from statistic data, Clatsop County currently has a 0% CFR. But statistics comes from "data" collected. 

This means people who died from the coronavirus in the County would have to be identified to have died from the virus and to determine that would imply they would have be tested positive in having the virus which should exist in the body for some period of time after the death of the person so it is possible within a period of time to determine if they have the virus in their body before they essentially die off. So far no deaths have been known to happen that was the result of the virus and no person who recently died during the pandemic have been identified to have the virus. Of course, this could be a result of lack of testing. Therefore, only on current statistical data, the death toll is 0 out of X. Thus statistically 0%. This doesn't mean that when the testing can reach a higher level that it might be known if someone dies that it was because of the virus. I doubt there has been any case of post-mortem testing. We only had 6 people identified positive of the virus (source: Daily Astorian). At these low numbers, there shouldn't be any deaths on a statistical level but still possible. Of the reported cases world-wide, the rate of death to reported cases has been around 3.4%. Do a little google search and you can find the figures. Now, we can say the rate is generally between 3% and 4% but there are localities where the numbers are higher because of factors like age demographics and density and there are cases where it is below the 3%. We can't be sure with regards to unreported cases but we could rationalize a similar rate as those reported. 

Some deaths may not even be documented to be because of the virus due to cases where the person was died at home and no post-mortem testing performed to test for the virus. Statistics on uncollected data is not something we can legitimately do math statistics from. Unknowns are unknowns. We can guess there are some unreported cases but how much? What's the percentage of unreported cases to reported cases in each county? I don't know. I don't have that number. All I have is the known data that is publicly released like on the Daily Astorian. Social distancing like populated area isolation. Why a less densely populated area with a considerably lower population area that is geographically isolated tends to have lower case numbers and deaths is bound by the same physics that limits the ability of the viral pathogens to spread. The virus can't easily travel 100s of miles on wind alone and survive the travel without a suitable biological host to reproduce. Social distance gives a separation distance that reduces the chances of the virus pathogen to travel airborne and reach another person. Stronger winds can blow the virus pathogen further than say in a room. However, there is a limit. The physics of the saliva droplets carrying the virus through the air like a ultra-fine mist. It goes only so far in a particular wind condition. 

Stay at home order keeps you and your family in the confines of your home which would act as a wall so if someone coughs outside on the sidewalk that happens to have the virus, it won't get to you unless you go outside and touch surfaces that has been contaminated with droplets containing the virus and the virus is on the surface. They can last a varying amount of time like up to 3 maybe 4 days on metal surfaces as some reports have given. Of course, you can disinfect that surface with a good disinfectant that kills coronaviruses and the surface be safe to touch in a few hours or less depending how much disinfectant you apply or the strength of the disinfectant.

 · 
RickB-Astoria

Therefore, I do agree with b3tadine that there isn't enough testing being done. b3tadine, I am not sure what you are getting at.

 · 
RickB-Astoria

With limited testing resources available, they aren't testing people, who are already dead before the "meat wagon" picks up the dead body at home or wherever the person died, to see if they have the coronavirus and therefore died because of it. Those that died in places have died at the hospital and were tested while they were still alive with the extreme cases of the symptoms. They are testing those who were already dead prior to when the ambulance was called. The person calling might not even known the person's symptoms prior to death so it isn't documented accordingly. There could be more deaths than reported. We just don't have those numbers.


 · 
revolutionary poet's comment has been hidden
revolutionary poet

.

This is just a test.


Apr 10, 20 9:11 pm  · 
 · 
coopercooperco

Guess I should finally make an account after a decade of reading here.

Have heard that even firms as big as Gensler have done multiple rounds of layoffs already. Would think a firm that size would have finances better able to handle an emergency, but I suppose the hit to retail studios especially was just too hard to handle.

Am at a 50-100 person firm in NYC, and we've had to take a pay cut for April. Supposedly the higher-ups took more, but we were only told our individual percentages (20%). Have been there for a year as of last week, so we'll see how May goes. When they announced the pay cuts, they didn't take furloughs or lay-offs off the table; they said they were possible, but it would be on a month to month basis. My own project is mixed-use and in another state--so the design is still moving forward--but I imagine after a deadline later this month, it'll go on hold. 

Real disillusioning thing about this (and there's no shortage of things to choose from), is the complete lack of leadership at my own firm. They put off WFH for as long as possible, the owners even disparaging people for not coming into the office after NY enacted PAUSE, and have become even more demanding of everyone despite the pay cuts. Have been working weekends--due to senior staff sending comments at 11 on Friday or over the weekend and demanding to review Monday morning--and feels like a lot of the upper management are constantly lashing out at everyone else. Have been working for eight years and have never seen a work environment that is so unhealthy, which is harder to parse when that environment has leaked into your own home. 

Bleak profession. 

Apr 13, 20 9:25 am  · 
 · 
shellarchitect

that's no good.... I'm sure that behavior will be remembered when openings appear at other firms.  Hopefully things will start opening up again around the time of your next milestone.  

I'm fairly happy with the transparency of my firm, even though we've also had a 20% pay cut and 40% reduction in force.

 · 
CodesareFUN

I have to agree with shell here. Even though we’ve had layoffs and 20% paycuts, management has been pretty transparent with all of us and providing constant updates. Cooper, as soon as you can/the economy lets you...run. Don’t work for people like that.

 · 

I was laid off on March 20th when my higher ed projects started going on hold.  https://www.reddit.com/r/architecture/comments/fxxli9/laid_off_or_know_someone_who_has_ask/

I would highly suggest becoming a member of the Architecture Lobby, a group making an effort to provide a Union for us: https://www.facebook.com/architecturelobby/

Also, if you're on Facebook or LinkedIn please feel free to request to join the A + D Industry [support group] where we aim to have sponsored happy hours and virtual meet and greets!

https://www.facebook.com/groups/527027667838189/

https://www.linkedin.com/groups/12394449/

Apr 13, 20 11:23 am  · 
 · 

Also, the Architecture Lobby is taking similar data for how firms are responding:

https://docs.google.com/forms/u/0/d/e/1FAIpQLSe3nDLM4MfyUyjXPSdOKOEtyFlJ6lgh_ZYu65f9_23sVgp4FA/formResponse

 · 

Autumn - I'm so sorry you were laid off. I would hope your employer didn't make the decision lightly. I am genuinely interested to know if you think a union would have protected your job?

 · 
Non Sequitur

a union? not this dead horse argument again...

 · 

Unions provide continued support during times of crisis (pandemic, war, famine), maintaining an active and educated work force for when we make it through to the other side and projects come back fast and furious. Unions can also carry health insurance so it's not just up to the firm. In going from large firms (Gensler/VOA/HOK, etc) with big corporate buying power to small firms (Smith Gill/SCB, etc) with no leverage for health insurance packages, I can say it would be a load off my mind to have that secured. I provided health insurance for myself and my family and now what? The Architecture Lobby also supports Medicare-for-all, which would negate this argument. That said, if we cannot acheive MFA then Union provided insurance would be worth my dues, IMHO. Unionization would also ensure that firms provide adequate staffing on projects, as well as capping aggressive schedules.  It can be a struggle to accommodate a 12 week process and yet I've been tasked with 10 and 8 week processes.  What happened in '08-'10 resulted in the bare bones staffing we see now and further promotes the 'work all hours because we promised the client we'd get it done in this amount of time' approach.  When I'm not billing all my worked hours to a project because the project budget can't afford it ... that's forced servitude.

 · 
Non Sequitur

And where will you find the clients to pay for all these new union derived higher wages and benefits?

 · 
square.

the same arguments have been made regarding minimum wage in places (in the us) that have recently raised it to $15/hr.. and low and behold the sky isn't falling; somehow employers have been able to pay the higher wages (before the current shit show)

 · 

From TAL's site, which I suggest you check out if you have more questions as to "How": The dues structure is designed to be not prohibitive, and to ensure that the financial burden of Lobby projects is shared democratically. It is also our primary source of funding, so projects are directly dependent on membership. The new member dues fee schedule is as follows: Professional Membership: two-tenths of one percent of annual salary (ex.: if your salary is $50,000 a year, you would pay $100 a year). Student/Unemployed Membership: $25.00 base membership fee

 · 
Non Sequitur's comment has been hidden
Non Sequitur

it's cute you think this works this way.

 · 
wurdan freo

unions are great... worked on a hospital job several years ago. prevailing wage. 11 story mob so we had an elevator. think the guys could press the button to get to the floor they needed. no... needed a union operator for that... 3-4 guys pressing buttons on the elevator making 6 figures a year for 5 years... ton of value there. Extreme example of the inefficiency caused by the mandatory division of labor but it exists at all levels. wanna see housing costs double... make them union. Want a raise based on merit... Fuhgeddaboudit... looks good on you though.

 · 
Non Sequitur

I can read between those lines well Wurdan. Ditto here too. Had one project cycle through one union strike after another (like they planned it). Added tens of millions to the cost and nearly 6 months of delays. The elevator "operator" is my favorite one tho.

 · 
b3tadine[sutures]

Somehow, someway, I never see you people down playing the Union when they fought to get us this;

  1. Weekends Off: Massive union strikes in the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries led to shorter work weeks with weekends off. This allowed Americans to be home with loved ones instead of constantly working.
     
  2. Paid Vacations: With summer coming to a close, take time to thank your union for the paid vacation time that made it possible to rest and relax with your family.
     
  3. Family & Medical Leave Act (FMLA): Unions spearheaded the fight that resulted in the passage of this law that gives eligible employees the right to take up to 12 weeks of job-protected unpaid leave annually for family and medical reasons.
     
  4. Breaks at Work—Including Lunch: Although they are now federally mandated, breaks haven't always been an employee right. Studies have shown, breaks provide important rest periods that improve safety and productivity.
     
  5. Sick Leave: Without paid sick leave, many workers couldn't afford to take the time necessary to recover from illnesses and accidents.
     
  6. Paid Holidays: Labor Day is one of nine paid holidays offered by most employers in the U.S. As you spend time with family and friends this Labor Day, thank your union.
     
  7. Military Leave: The Uniformed Services Employment and Reemployment Rights Act ensures those that serve their country can keep civilian employment and benefits, and seek employment free from discrimination.
     
  8. 40-hour Work Week: Americans once worked 60 hours a week or more. It wasn't until the 1950's that 40-hour work weeks and 8-hour work days became standard across America thanks to union negotiations.

https://www.unionplus.org/blog/union-made/eight-reasons-thank-unions


 · 
square.

^ this. it's easy to cherry-pick the problems with things, but we have much to thank for unions. i have many family members and friends who are/were teachers, and thanks to their unions they are living a comfortable life in retirement with great healthcare and nice pensions, unlike me who will be working well into their 70s with my paltry 401k. the self abuse of people entrenched in this profession never ceases to amaze me. it's the select few boot-lickers who "make it" close enough to the top that feel like they have some strange obligation to protect the interests of their clients who are giving them some breadcrumbs of their wealth, instead of looking out for the interest of the profession on a whole. what's good for those at the bottom is good for everyone.

 · 
Non Sequitur

Beta, I don't ignore the historical contributions. What I do not believe in is further alienation of young graduates from the realities of the profession by claiming unions will solve all their problems. The unions serve their purpose with low-level, low-ceiling disposable staff with large market shares. Architecture is a luxury product, not a fast-food burger. Very few people are buying our services and that number will drop greatly once unions step in and get their share of the fees collected.

 · 
b3tadine[sutures]

Unions don't solve "all" problems, but they do buy an increasingly disenfranchised architect/graduate a seat at the table. Too often firms make decisions in the best interest of "The Firm" yet no one is making decisions in the best interest of those they employ, and that in a nut shell is a reason for unionization. I'm not talking about all firms, as not all companies have union employees, only those that seek to exploit labor.

 · 
Non Sequitur

So Beta, looking at this another way, are you suggesting that in your scenario, an office with a unionized production staff pool is indicative of a badly managed workplace?

 · 
b3tadine[sutures]

Not sure I follow, however, looking at this from your scenario; are you suggesting that high-tech skilled labor, isn't worth a pot to piss in? Put another way, I don't care - some, if not many do - what graduates don't know, that's trainable, I care about what they do know. Now, you might tell me Old Man Ford knew fuck all about cars, but Carol Shelby and Ken what's his name knew about racing, and the guy on the line knew more about fuel injection, and how to get a shit ton of horsepower out of a shitty Ford.

So you tell me; who built Ford again?

 · 
Non Sequitur

I don't know. I drive a toyota sedan. It's black if that's relevant. What I meant was that these is a limit to what you can push the private sector to do.

 · 
b3tadine[sutures]

It would seem the "profession" is on a precipice, and not because of this event, it's been there for a good long while. They thought perhaps we'll make better architects, by demanding NAAB, NCARB, and AIA do better. More integrated studios, streamlined testing, IDP, make member firms pay for architects not in the AIA - incentivizing membership, by paying for younger member fees - but none of that is stemming the crisis they've been talking about for years; lack of people joining the profession. No. None of that is working. Promises to attract women, black architects? Nope, not working. 

What would work? More, early investment, by younger professionals, with more flexibility in schedules, WFH, more employee owned, or more non-managerial staff at the decision tables. Leaders can lead, if they allow younger staff - not all staff, we all work with completely spoon-fed wet noodles - to lead. Change needs to be mandated from the top, and let younger staff charge the hill.

 · 
archi_dude's comment has been hidden
archi_dude

Considering beta was attacking any member that didnt agree with her wanting to nationalize empty CBRE properties a few weeks ago and now field hospitals are being taken down countrywide without treating a single patient....this opinion taken with a HUGE grain of salt.

 · 
b3tadine[sutures]'s comment has been hidden
b3tadine[sutures]

what's this thing i was against a few weeks ago? show me.

 · 
wurdan freo

A-rchitects alienated themselves when they decided they wanted to be professionals like doctors and lawyers and distanced themselves from the trades. You want to make money in this field and provide a secure future for your family, forget about the elitest design bullshit you learn in school. Get your hands dirty in the trenches and learn to provide real value. A client will always value a person more if they can tell them how much something will cost than a person who can talk in circles above their head while pontificating the differences between bifurcation and the tartan grid and how critical that will be to achieving a harmonious bathroom layout. (not saying design doesn't have a place) No amount of unionizing will elevate the value that an architect can bring to a project or project team. Thankful for unions that fought and died 100 years ago... they served their purpose... created balanced laws... now go away.

 · 
b3tadine[sutures]

Most of the architects posting in here, don't hold their pinky extended when drinking tea, so I have zero fucking clue about what you speak. Most architects here know how to speak to their clients like human beings.

 · 
mightyaa

Agreed Wurdan. I personally blame the AIA. It slowly shifted the concept of architect as a ‘master builder’ who knows how buildings go together to focus on just ‘design’ thus painting a tiara on our brows as pageant queens rather than dirt under our fingernails sorts. Additionally, the AIA got busted for anti-trust trying to set how architects conduct business. So there is case law now on bargaining as architects. To complicate even more, it is difficult to unionize “professional employees”, of which architects are as licensed professionals with specialized knowledge. Unions are sort of for blue-collar non-management positions to collectively push back on management as a group. So more likely than not, any attempt to unionize would be seen as anti-trust collusion violations against the free-market.

 · 
b3tadine[sutures]

Recent grads, area not licensed, and not professionals, they're labor. Many don't want to be architects, licensed professionals. They should be allowed to collectively bargain for their rights.

 · 
b3tadine[sutures]

.

 · 
square.

mighty- teachers and nurses are typically in unions, so the “blue collar” stereotype is off. you're also seeing more tech workers begin to unionize. but the push against management is correct, which is why production staff needs to organize against management which clearly, by the posts on this thread, does not value it.

 · 
b3tadine[sutures]

archi-dude? only an idiotic trumper type would actually be decrying the field hospitals being dismantled, especially when that means, sheltering in place is working, and the curve is being flattened. you're like those idiots arguing that my governor will have something to answer for, if there aren't 50k dead in our state. as moronic as wanting to end a shut-down because people aren't dying in higher numbers, oh wait, that's the same thing.

 · 
archi_dude

I think empty hospital ships and empty field hospitals are enough to show your hysteria on your hysteria thread central was just that. Also, the flattening started happening on the 31st, 2 weeks after most states were still business as usual with voluntary work from home, handwashing and less handshaking. And yeah, there is something to answer for when your actions based on hysteria thrust millions into joblessness.

 · 
b3tadine[sutures]

Meh, maths and science demonstrate you don't know what the fuck you are talking about.

 · 
b3tadine[sutures]

I don't know if "archi"-dude can read charts, but from my measure, the real start of the UP curve actually started on 3/31.

 · 
archi_dude

You plotted deaths. Which carry an additional lag after a positive test. The accepted lag from infection to detection was on average about 2 weeks. The slowdown started on 3/31

 · 
archi_dude

Regardless, doesnt really matter as the western governors and Cuomo seemed to have realized the models were way off. Switched their tune real fast this week to make it look like they are champions of opening up.

 · 
b3tadine[sutures]

No, I plotted confirmed and deaths.

Look, I know you can't read charts, or graphs, but the first two I posted, do you see that swath of color? That swath of color, as I understand it, is because we aren't doing enough testing, so the true reality of the "projections" can never really be measured, and as new - often latent - data comes in, the graphs change. Maths, and sciences.

 · 
b3tadine[sutures]

.

 · 
archi_dude

No you are arguing stats. The experts have stated "we dont know." To almost every question about spread, death rates, symptoms ect. So not math and sciences speculations. And clearly the speculations were overblown in most scenarios, not all, it's a good idea to extend controls in places that are heavily served by public transport and really high density. However full facist style lockdowns countrywide in rural, suburban and as california has shown, car centric locales, unnecessary and creating way more issues then they are solving. Also source for slowdowns, NY Times casetracker was very clear when slowdowns happened per state.

 · 
b3tadine[sutures]

No, you make "speculations" sound if it's Tarot card readings, when every single scientist, medical professional, statistician , maths people have stated the same thing; as more data, more testing have come on line, the data changes. you, are clearly only listening to the myopic idiots running the fed.

 · 
Autumn Godwin-Hoffmeier's comment has been hidden

love the ignore setting xoxo

Apr 13, 20 1:31 pm  · 
 · 
Non Sequitur

enjoy the ignorance.

 · 
archi_dude

Ah great debating skills, that will really help you win over people to support your idea. Kind of shows why you rely on a union to land a good paying job with work life balance.

 · 
SneakyPete

cheap shot, dude.

 · 
Volunteer's comment has been hidden
Volunteer

The guilds you belong to, the AIA and NCARB, don't do anything but feather their own nest. I'm sure this one, with its left-of-Lenin mindset,  will be different. 

Apr 13, 20 2:32 pm  · 
 · 
wurdan freo

word.

 · 
drums please, Fab?

2 yo' MUTHA!

 · 
code's comment has been hidden
code

Architecture with Unions?, payin fees to some Jimmy Hoffa?, no way

Apr 13, 20 2:46 pm  · 
 · 
b3tadine[sutures]

Narrow-mindedness is what got Jimmy, got.

 · 
b3tadine[sutures]

And you ask why we need TAL...

I find this graphic compelling, and definitely a big reason why we need The Architecture Lobby. 32-33% of member firms, believe that their labor force, is expendable. It's likely telling that that same number represents firms, who support opening the country back up, fuck whatever that "deep state mole" tells us. 


Apr 13, 20 5:19 pm  · 
 · 

where does the graphic say people are expendable? i see 1% saying they've started layoffs and 17% considering that or furloughs. i'm more surprised both of those aren't higher.

 · 
b3tadine[sutures]

Greg, I worked for three weeks while the sole proprietor dilly-dalied around, waiting for the governor to tell us to stay home. He didn't believe that we could remain productive. In those three weeks I was stressing out, one for my own health, but two because someone in our office had conditions making them more likely than not to get COVID. So, in referring to the 32% that are still working on the office. The 33% are those idiots still having in person meetings. Those firms are the ones that I am referring to. These are the irresponsible firms.

 · 
thisisnotmyname

@Gregory, It's a little early for the staff reductions to get going. I think a spike in layoffs and furloughs is possible in the coming 3-6 weeks as pre-COVID workload is completed, no new work comes in, and PPP and EIDL money doesn't show up soon enough.

 · 
mightyaa

I see it. Like my firm acts like it is doing me a huge favor by labeling me and my co-workers as ‘essential’ so we can come into the office as though nothing is going on. They paint it as we’re lucky to be working during these times. They tried rotating staff every other day teleworking for two-weeks. This morning they said ‘billings are down, quality is down, and so everyone needs to be in the office working: no more teleworking.’ My health is not their primary concern and expendable; a hit to their invoicing is not as expendable. Additionally, whether we are in the office or not, judging pandemic billings versus boom billings and blaming teleworking as the primary culprit for the difference is pretty shitty.

 · 

the way I see it either:

1) you have low cash flow and due to the virus you needed to layoff or furlough fairly quickly (possibly a young firm)

or

2) you have made a lot of profit (old firm), so you could carry the firm financially for a bit, but now see a great opportunity to trim the fat and layoff the "unwanted" employees, not necessarily expendable the "unwanted" (they may be people the firm just doesn't like).

 · 
shellarchitect

mightyaa, are you still an independent contractor at your firm? I thought I read that at one time

 · 
square.

to add to ancient- 2b) shed the "unwanted" employees who's wages have finally started rising, realizing at the same time the crisis is producing a graduating class of terrified potential new employees who will take whatever low-ball salary you offer them. but yeah, we don't need more worker protections.

 · 
mightyaa

@shell; I was with my previous gig. For the last 2 though I'm salary working for a engineering firm.

 · 

@b3ta - i'm not sure i'd read those stats the same way but i do feel for you personal situation and agree - if the boss wasn't moving to make this happen, shame on them. i will say for us, at 10 people, it took a week to get everything set up so the office could go full remote. mostly software and some hardware and a lot of coordination. but we managed.

 · 

@thisis - my personal take is it totally depends on the firm. if you're a 20-50 person firm (for example) and 40% of your projected revenue dried up in the last few weeks and you don't see how it will be replaced over the next 6 months? you're not holding people for another 3-6 weeks just to wait and see. a lot of firms did exactly that back in 08/09 and ended up in serious financial trouble (with at least a half dozen in atlanta folding up shop by 2012). i think firms are much more wary about borrowing just to hold on to staff. salary reductions can also only go so far.

 · 

to put some of the financials in perspective, let's take a 20 person firm that's middle of the road (profitability, salary, etc. wise): that firm is probably doing 4M a year in gross revenue (including all pass through income - your consultants, etc). 2 principals, 2 administrative staff, 16 architectural staff with a range of experiences. in a mid-tier city rent wise (minneapolis, houston, atlanta, etc). your net revenue is probably closer to 2.8-3M. your profitability is probably close to 20%. meaning, on that 3M, you cleared 600k in profit. that gets distributed however among the owners and staff but let's say each staff person got an average of 6k bonus. That leaves us with two sets of numbers: a potential savings of just under 500k, which (because this is likely to be an LLP or LLC) means it's been taxed as personal income in the past year with a tax rate of 25%. That leaves 370k in reserve, assuming the partners took zero bonus. On the flip side, the annual monthly expenses for the firm is approximately 200k. About 75% of this will be everyone's salaries, the balance being rent, insurance, everything else. So: our firm has to make 200k a month in net revenue to break even. If there's a 25% drop in revenue, our profitability is totally wiped out and we're 5% in the negative (actual losses). Keep adding on to the actual losses for every % the revenue drops. A 5% actual loss probably means losing 2 of the 16 people. A 10% actual loss probably means 4.

 · 

In the above - in the unlikely event the partner's took a zero bonus, they'd have (in theory) enough to cover a 25% drop in revenue, assuming they'd put it all there and keep everyone's salary whole. and, yes, you could do a 5-10% salary reduction. there's options for sure. but if you get to a point where your revenue drops 40% or more and you can't guarantee it will come back within 3 months... you're going to have to lay people off.

 · 
Chad Miller

Very clear and concise explanation. Thank you for that.

 · 
gibbost

With 2008/09 fresh in everyone's mind, I'd like to think that smart firms have been squirreling away cash during the boom we've seen the last 5 years. Financial experts tell me personally to have 3-6 months of savings on hand for my family--i'd say that's sound advice for small businesses too. So far, my firm has communicated to the staff that we can weather 3-6 months of disruption--which has been reassuring.

 · 

@gibbost - perhaps. it isn't that easy to do. and there's a real question in that: would you burn out all your savings to save all your staff for 6 months? when the work isn't there and there's no real sense of if/when it will return? if you do, that's 5 years of savings gone and you've put the firm at a real risk of being vulnerable to any further disruptions over the following 6-12 months. i just don't seem many firms making that decision.

 · 
gibbost

Greg, that's the business we're in. That's the gamble we all take--as an employee and as a firm owner. It's difficult to project out more than 6 months even when the economy is good. I understand the challenges owners face and none of us have a crystal ball. But just as I would totally burn thru my own savings to keep the lights on here at home (in lieu of that vacation we all wanted to take next year)--I'm hoping that firms are doing everything they possibly can to keep their most valuable resource. What is the point of savings if not for a time like this?

 · 

The problem with Unions in Architecture is they would be at odds with firm survival in some key instances. We, most of us, need to have firms to work for no individual has the capacity to design an airport or Tesla Ventilator factory on their own. Unions make reducing staff and cutting wages and expenses in the interest of keeping the whole firm going very difficult.

 · 
square.

i suppose this is the issue at hand. if you view this through the lens of owners, then of course you will think that it is at odds with its "survival," since it will indeed be the owners/management surviving any layoffs and reductions. on the other hand, if you view it through the lends of workers, then you tend to think that they are actually what makes the firms survival possible, hence getting the axe first seems a bit unfair. i actually favor cooperative firm ownership before unions, though; because a) most firms are small operations and b) it recognizes that architecture is a team discipline, both internally and externally, and that even if you are just "production," you deserve some stake (in some proportional way, of course) because without making what you produce (drawing sets), the firm is nothing.

 · 
sameolddoctor

No architecture is "essential", unless you are doing healthcare projects. Report your fuckhead boss.

 · 
revolutionary poet's comment has been hidden
revolutionary poet

Expendables (all black wearing mainly dude organization - architects)

Sylvester Stallone Is Bringing The Expendables Back And Sending ...

Apr 13, 20 9:09 pm  · 
 · 
drums please, Fab?

i see beta!

 · 
b3tadine[sutures]

.

 · 

dude I'm in front of you a few rows


 · 
CodesareFUN

Where’s
Balkins?

 · 
RickB-Astoria

:-)

 · 
Non Sequitur

balkins gets Harrison Ford? Who agreed to that?

 · 
CodesareFUN

That ain’t it Balkins.

 · 
Chad Miller

Who do I get?

 · 
citizen

Shouldn't Helen Mirren be in there somewhere?

 · 
Chad Miller

Also John Malkovich.

 · 
RickB-Astoria

CodesareFUN, 

We get to pick our choice just like the first two. There's no committee. 

 · 
RickB-Astoria

N.S., Pick while you can before someone else claims it.

 · 
RickB-Astoria

N.S., if Ryan Reynolds were to play in a future Expendables movie (if one happens), that might fit you just fine !

 · 
Chad Miller

Naw, NS doesn't like gunzs. I suppose he could just use sharp things and throw bottles of maple syrup at villans.

 · 
Non Sequitur

^Folks, mark your calendars, Today I agree with Balkins.

 · 
Chad Miller

You'll need gunzs to be Ryan Reynods. Also hair.

 · 
tduds

Well we know which one is Donna.

 · 
Non Sequitur

My luscious mane will do just fine.

 · 
citizen

^ good pseudonym: Luscious Mane.

 · 
Chad Miller

Villains: "oh god no, it's LUSCIOUS MANE here to whoop our asses!"

 · 
citizen

Porn star or super villain... or both!

 · 

haha, NS and Citizen...Question is where is Chuck Norris? (in this photo) I think only FLW gets to be Chuck Norris?

Chuck Norris cleaning up “The Expendables 2” for PG-13? [Updated ...

 · 
CodesareFUN

Bjarke Ingels is Chuck Norris

 · 

the Lone Wolf, I see...haha

 · 
b3tadine[sutures]

Mr. Bean is Bjarke


 · 
randomised

.


 · 
Non Sequitur

This is a brilliant diversion. Missing from the expendable pic are those from the first 2 films: the muscles from Brussels, stone cold Steve Auston, and of course, the one and only Bruce Willis. Mickey Rourke also plays a colourfull chap.

 · 
JMArch
Been a lurker for a while... The Alphabet ‘employee owned’ firm I worked for just dumped 1/3 of their staff today. No warning.

I was doing CA on one project and starting DDs on a development that was moving forward, plus BIM management, dynamo development, and a ton of ‘after hours’ unpaid stuff to increase productivity in a competitive market, while being the only person around to answer a support call past 5pm. Suddenly, I’m not.

So now, off to the breadline I guess.
Apr 14, 20 7:58 pm  · 
 · 
b3tadine[sutures]

LA or Minneapolis?

 · 
JMArch

Minneapolis

 · 
liberty bell

Yikes, JMArch. Thanks for sharing but yes this is scary. Hang in there!

 · 
square.

sorry to hear that. just goes to show, that while your efforts to put in extra time and energy were noble, at the end of the day the company doesn't care and will do what's "best" for the company.. which is why employees should always do what's best for them.

 · 
sameolddoctor

Just mention the name JMArch. They didnt give a shit about your extra efforts, and now you are trying to protect them? SMH

 · 
JMArch
I should’ve included - it was 480 people that got let go.
Apr 14, 20 8:00 pm  · 
 · 

480 People in total? Or just the Minn. office? Sorry to hear...

 · 
tintt

So sorry.

 · 
JMArch

480 total. Monday I think that they had 1,300 across all offices. Going to be a little interesting in the coming weeks for whoever is left. 

 · 
zg_a

Which firm was it?

 · 
Chad Miller

Well the top three biggest firms in Minneapolis are Nelson, HGA, and RSP. I'd say any one or all of those firms are laying off large numbers of people right now.

 · 
b3tadine[sutures]

You forgot one, three vowels, two consonants.

 · 
Chad Miller

You'll have to narrow it down a bit. I've never practiced in Minneapolis and haven't lived in MN for six years.


Also I said top three, not top four.  8-)

 · 
b3tadine[sutures]

They used to be THE firm in MPLS - Ellerbe Becket

 · 
Chad Miller

Oh, AECOM. Haven't really followed their work.

 · 
midlander

i thought this was about DLR... i hear they've done a big layoff too.

 · 
Chad Miller

DLR, HGA, Nelson, RSP, they are all laying off a lot of people. They tend to have the practice of hire and fire based on work load so this isn't a surprise to me.

 · 
SneakyPete

HKS, too

 · 
JMArch

Geez, I didn't think this was going to become a thing... I wasn't attempting to protect anyone - just acting with a little professional discretion. It's sucking pretty hard for all of us right now. It was DLR that pulled the trigger, not that that matters now. There are other firms in the area that did this the day that quarantine was announced. Cash has stopped flowing, projects are pushed out 3-4 months, existing fees are going uncollected (on par with the way that the profession generally operates)... backlog evaporates, current workload gets cut in half - and I apparently was mistaken that being able to self-perform projects from inception to completion + development of automation tools on the side was a marketable commodity. Oops. Time to polish the Python skills and start rebuilding my lapsed consulting career from '08 + '09.

 · 
sameolddoctor's comment has been hidden
sameolddoctor

Also, to act super woke like other archinecters, Thank you China.

Apr 15, 20 1:52 pm  · 
 · 
x-jla

Let me correct that, Fuck your China

 · 
x-jla

Wuhan virus ruined world....WHO was propaganda parrot for China. Need a version of the CIA that spy’s on infectious disease like they do for terrorism. Need to spy on China hardcore after this shit and completely close all travel to and from until the Govt allows in inspectors (like we did with Iran and NK nuclear programs)

 · 
SneakyPete

Also, to act super dumb like other archinecters, (insert bad hot-take here)

 · 
x-jla

Media hot-take good when about trump being bad, bad when about China being bad because that’s racist because China has lots of Chinese people in it and some rich white Americans were mean to Chinese people in the 1800’s. Can I get a woke badge for that please?

 · 
x-jla

Why can’t you dummies criticize the Chinese government? Are you that ideologically invested in the last hold out of communism’s success?

 · 
curtkram

do you get all your news from reddit jla?

 · 
x-jla

The second post up was written with a Russian accent. If you read it like that it sounds better

 · 
x-jla

I’m not Russian, just sometimes think in a Russian accent.

 · 
x-jla

Curt, no, it’s common sense that China lied big time. No fucking way in the devils asshole did such a highly infectious disease not spread like fire through the dense cities of China when 5 million people left Wuhan while it was spreading. No possible way. It’s well known now that they hid the truth, made some docs disappear (likely) and greatly underreported cases...but what really puzzles me is why they hid the known fact that there were a large amount of asymptotic cases....that’s what makes me wonder. If they wanted to play down the death rate, they could have included those and cut it in half....but they didn’t. They hid that important fact. Why would they want to do that? Think about that.

 · 
x-jla

They also let people travel the world for at least a month while they knew about this virus and hid it. They are either malicious or responsible for great negligence. Either way, doesn’t matter. Effects are the same.

 · 
x-jla

And the WHO was either ineffective, complacent, or completely ignorant. Again, doesn’t matter. Same effect.

 · 
x-jla

Comments hidden. Lol. So change word China to America and I bet the comments wouldn’t be hidden. They would be celebrated.

 · 
tduds

1) China is an authoritarian nation & that culture of authoritarianism absolutely exacerbated this crisis. 

2) This criticism also applies to the US. 

3) While technically not wrong, harping on the failures of the CCP diverts energy toward punishment and sows division rather than cooperation toward a common solution. Pointing fingers will only prolong the crisis. 

4) Insisting on using a geographically-based term, while not inherently racist, fuels already rising anti-Asian sentiment in the US and elsewhere. 

5) Pretending that criticism of 3 and 4 is an endorsement of China and/or communism is transparently fallacious at best and a bad faith deflection at worst.

 · 
x-jla

#4 is completely ridiculous. Lyme disease, Ebola, Zika, Hong Kong flu, Spanish flu, etc etc etc. Bullshit PR stunt by WHO and China. Not a big deal, but really highlights and helps the Chinese states PR efforts to comply with this ridiculous line of thought.

 · 
x-jla

Diseases are named after places for a good reason. The conditions of their place of origin contributes to the emergence of the disease (natural or man made)

 · 
x-jla

I remember very early on there was a push to rebrand the naming something that has no mention of China.

 · 
sameolddoctor

jla, better to be sarcastic around here. Thank you China for giving us all of this time at home with our loved ones and for decimating our economy. Thank you China for the bright blue skies too!

 · 
x-jla

#3 figure out who cannot be trusted to avoid future problems. Figure out who’s lying to avoid making decisions based on bad data. Hold parties accountable so that they don’t do again. You do realize that authoritarian states like China, NK, Russia, only understand one thing...reward and punishment. They act out of self interest. Sanctions and economic deals is how we handle them...that’s all they understand. They don’t negotiate out of good will. They are strong arm states. Again, this all has absolutely nothing whatsoever to do with the Chinese people in China or abroad. Nothing at all. This is a criticism of the Chinese government’s actions that hurt the world along with the Chinese people.

 · 
x-jla

same olddoctor, oh yes! Thank you China and congratulations on success of being coronavirus free. Must be a very very good system. Far superior than rest of world.

 · 
tduds

Yes of course the WHO conspired with China to absolve them of blame for this disease. Also they did it 4 1/2 years prior to the outbreak. Masterful move.


 · 
tduds

It doesn't matter if you personally are racist. By saying the things that racists also say, you give them cover and justification. I've lost count of how many times I've tried to explain this in various threads around this forum but at this point I have to assume you're deliberately misunderstanding.

 · 
x-jla

Is it racist to suggest that the state department had concerns about the safety of the bio lab in Wuhan where they study bat coronavirus and the new information that bats aren’t really sold in those wet markets? I don’t understand how racism comes into play here. Are people from the town of Lyme Connecticut persecuted for Lyme disease?

 · 
x-jla

what if we discover that it was actually lab made? Do we still have to not link it to China? Should we call North Korean nukes just nukes? Should we call “the Italian mafia” the “mafia equally likely to be from anywhere”?

 · 
x-jla

The conditions of place lead to the emergence of particular things. Ignoring the place of origin to spare some bystanders the racial slurs from toothless hillbillies is completely asinine and dishonest.

 · 
x-jla

Whether this came from a market, or a lab, it’s still “man made”. Pangolins, bats,
and humans don’t play together in nature.

 · 
x-jla

Whether caused by hunting Bush meat along the Ebola river, prancing around in tall grass in the town of Lyme, or playing with bat viruses in Wuhan, these diseases are linked to specific natural, cultural, and political, conditions. Obscuring that reality does no good.

 · 
tduds

Take it up with the WHO. I've said all I care to.

 · 
SneakyPete

if you use the ignore feature, jla-x is relegated to the echo chamber where he feels most at home.

 · 
x-jla

Seems like I’ve been dampening your echo chamber.

 · 
RickB-Astoria

Lets cut all the bullshit. Either use your intellect and creativity to come up with solutions or shut the hell up because the more you talk, the more you are infecting the world with a more infectious disease.... ASSHOLISM.

2 MILLION YEARS OF human kind and there has been no medication or vaccine for that.

 · 
x-jla

Mission complete, RB called me an asshole.

 · 
x-jla

Solution, cut Chinese travel off indefinitely until they allow a US UN convoy into their country to study and monitor infectious diseases. Not WHO.

 · 
x-jla

If this was something as deadly as bird flu, it would be the end of the world.

 · 
x-jla

Can’t trust their word on matters this serious.

 · 
Catcow

I've been away from the office for 3 weeks now, and as of about two weeks been furloughed. Many of my office's projects clients are hospitality and restaurants, so... this situation is of no shock to us.

Apr 16, 20 10:43 am  · 
 · 
thisisnotmyname

Well, since PPP money has run out and a whopping 4% of EIDLs have actually been paid out,  we'll all be seeing plenty more layoffs in the coming weeks.

Apr 16, 20 2:01 pm  · 
 · 
joseffischer

The last 3 efforts I've done (all post Covid-19) are all what I'd consider "hustle" work, that if I were such a person, I'd moonlight on. They all exist solely because they're visible enough that a permit is needed, and they all involve a "hide these things" non-permitted construction phase. Last time I tried to whistle blow this stuff more officially, the city ignored it and I got a lot of flack for it. Now, we're in the process of becoming 3rd party inspectors, since the city won't be doing inspections.

I'm seriously wondering how it's supposed to work when we get to the part where I'm supposed to inspect something knowing what's behind that wall.  Maybe the higher ups will send someone else in the office?  If they send me, I'm definitely going to flag it... though that might be moot anyway since all we're getting is crumbs right now and I'm sure my previous history of integrity won't be looked at brightly in the coming quarters.

 · 
Chad Miller

thisisnotmyname - where did you find this information about the PPP money running out and only 4% being paid out?

 · 
x-jla's comment has been hidden
x-jla

What, the gov ran out of money 1 month into socialism? What a shocker!

 · 
thisisnotmyname's comment has been hidden
thisisnotmyname

@jla-x Not even one month, more like two weeks.

 · 
Volunteer's comment has been hidden
Volunteer

Nancy Pelosi, eating gourmet ice cream in Napa, and Chuckie Schumer said "No" without the tounch-feely 'green new deal' nonsense being added to a supplemental appropriation.

 · 
x-jla's comment has been hidden
x-jla

Pelosi and Schumer should resign. They are despicable.

 · 
tduds's comment has been hidden
tduds

Seems more like an executive failure to me. Unsurprising.

 · 
Volunteer's comment has been hidden
Volunteer

The House has to sign off on the bill. The minority leader of the House, Kevin McCarthy, the majority leader of the Senate, Mitch McConnell, and the President are ready to sign. It should have been signed several days ago and would have been absent the excretable Pelosi. She is concerned about global warming. Your kids can wait - they probably don't need to eat too often.

 · 
sameolddoctor's comment has been hidden
sameolddoctor

Pelosi and Schumer are the reason firms smaller than 500pp are even getting anything. The GOP only wanted to bail out larger companies. Read up before bullshitting around.

 · 
Volunteer's comment has been hidden
Volunteer

Democrats have never cared about small business or their employees. They care about getting their hands on the contributions from big unionized labor at big business and contributions from unionized government employees like the teacher's unions.

 · 
Chad Miller's comment has been hidden
Chad Miller

There are so many lies and half truths (still a lie) posted above that I'm not even going to take the time to dispute them all. I will say this, jla-x, Volunter, sameolddoctor - you are a bunch of fuck-wits.

Have fun living in your own little pissed off world.  

 · 
square.'s comment has been hidden
square.

^these are some paranoid people living in a small, fabricated world. it's more entertaining to read it as satire.

 · 
Chad Miller's comment has been hidden
Chad Miller

I think it's more fun to call out their stupidity and loss of connection to reality. I can't believe those three are able to function as architects and find clients with such a degree of paranoia.

 · 
Ancient Sheds's comment has been hidden

Chad you are guaranteeing the re-election of the orange guy with such an attitude against your fellow peers.....anyway can we take bets since not much sporting event to bet on now? Trump wins re-election, putting $20 spot on that one, but I will hedge my bet with - Unless the Dems put Cuomo on the ticket, then I will bet $100 on Cuomo. Biden:Trump odds are too close to call, it's like a 1:1.

 · 
b3tadine[sutures]'s comment has been hidden
b3tadine[sutures]

Yeah, it surprises me little that the Libertarian wants to blame socialism for this. It's an absolute joke. The failure here that hedge funds and multi nationals got any money, and the wealthy got a major tax break. The guillotines are being sharpened right now, and those Randian clowns are going to get it soon.

 · 
archi_dude's comment has been hidden
archi_dude

Socialism works until you run out of other people's money. Proven throughout history. Nothing diferent here.

 · 
b3tadine[sutures]'s comment has been hidden
b3tadine[sutures]

How do you run out of money? The Republikkkans have been bullshitting everyone for years with that mess, and yet when their corporate whores need bailing out, suddenly deficits don't matter. Bullshit I say.

 · 
x-jla's comment has been hidden
x-jla

B3, your socialist wet dream was over 2 weeks in. It’s a sad reality check for any young comrade that thinks the world can function without capitalism and private industry. The government isn’t good at anything. They are clueless paper pushers.

 · 
Ancient Sheds's comment has been hidden

little known read on this, but Jean-Paul Satre's equally fat book to Karl Marx's "Das Kapital"called "Critique of Dialectical Reason", after a massive foreward by Frederic Jameson - Jean-Paul flies through in about 122 pages in a Jean-Paul existential manner from Hegel thru Marx's Dialectic softly landing on

"Scarcity and Mode of Production" in Book 1 - Section III - Chapter. In short (my reading) our historical human material existence is a negotiation on a planet of "scarcity". Think about it! Our entire history to date as a planet of interacting humans is based on "scarcity". Now in that condition the hopes of "socialism" are essentially untenable for ALL. So neo-liberal freemarket Capitalism as a means of "hope" will continue to be the only solution, hence a Libertarian will say - I work hard, am a free person, and therefore am due my portion of the little portion of accumulated Kapital (material wealth) of the world. If I ever take the position "socialism" won't work, it's because it "practically" cannot unless over half the population dies now or over time is severely reduced. Communist China has know this for decades. Just sayin' (ok back to work, haha)

 · 
Ancient Sheds's comment has been hidden

Most of you arguing here are actually "Social Democrats" - 

Mort Sahl can explain

 · 
b3tadine[sutures]'s comment has been hidden
b3tadine[sutures]

Jlax, my Socialist wet dream, would be that the workers get the money, and let them decide who lives and who dies. Not corporate whores.

 · 
square.'s comment has been hidden
square.

yes, social democracy. and don’t tell me there isn’t money when jeff bezos can buy every team in the nfl.. who do you think generated that money for him? the point isn’t to abolish amazon, it’s to force it to distribute its wealth, generated mostly by its workers, more equitably. we should be embarrassed that we’ve allowed individuals to amass such wealth when we can’t even supply enou
gh ppe for health care workers.

 · 
b3tadine[sutures]'s comment has been hidden
b3tadine[sutures]

^spot on. We need a square. deal!

 · 
x-jla's comment has been hidden
x-jla

Workers are useless without work. Industry employs workers. Government cannot run industry. They can barely run government.

 · 
x-jla's comment has been hidden
x-jla

“the point isn’t to abolish amazon, it’s to force it to distribute its wealth, generated mostly by its workers, more equitably” What is equitable? Numbers please.

 · 
b3tadine[sutures]'s comment has been hidden
b3tadine[sutures]

Corporate whores are useless without people to subjugate. Workers are the ones whose labor is being stolen.

 · 
x-jla's comment has been hidden
x-jla

Your ok then with partisan government cogs having the authority to force redistribution of private property. Remember trump is president, and was “democratically” voted in. These feel good things are said with little understanding of the downstream consequences of such a powerful state. Hasn’t this crisis Exposed that threat?

 · 
thisisnotmyname

Does anyone have any idea how much it would cost to fully fund PPP? Is it in the trillions? Was the program ever really practical? In hindsight, some kind of pause on all residential and commercial rent and mortgage payments along with offering food stamps to everyone in the USA may have been more effective and easier to implement as a way to facilitate waiting out the epidemic.

 · 
x-jla's comment has been hidden
x-jla

“Workers are the ones whose labor is being stolen“. How is labor being stolen? They agree to work for a certain fee and get paid that fee to work.

 · 
b3tadine[sutures]'s comment has been hidden
b3tadine[sutures]

Yeah. Ok.

 · 
x-jla's comment has been hidden
x-jla

No one forced them to work. Can’t expect an 18 yo HS dropout who works at the McDonald’s drive through to make as much as a general manager of McDonald’s CEO. Can’t expect a receptionist to make as much as a neurosurgeon, or an Architect firm owner to make as much as a CAD monkey fresh out of school. Ownership takes risk and 24/7 work and stress.

 · 
Ancient Sheds's comment has been hidden
tduds's comment has been hidden
tduds

My god this thread is stupid. If jla took half the time he spent bitching about socialism & welfare and read a damn book he might actually start criticizing the right thing.

 · 
tduds's comment has been hidden
tduds

I agree though we shouldn't pay strawmen as much as Bill Gates. We should pay them more, though.

 · 
x-jla's comment has been hidden
x-jla

This virus is exposing some cracks. Just saying. Take a look at the wonderful health care systems of Europe that are constantly being held as shiny examples of progress. Completely overwhelmed and death rates are many times higher than US. Just saying, going forward maybe more architects ought to embrace the system that has fed architects-capitalism. Thanks goodnight

 · 
x-jla's comment has been hidden
x-jla

So, you all got trial run of socialism authoritarian life under democratically elected tyrant. This is what I warn about. Hope you like! Hope capitalism comes back before I have to eat pets.

 · 
square.'s comment has been hidden
square.

jla-x, it’s very simple. without factory workers, who are the least pay amongst amazon employees, your shit wouldn’t get to you in 2 days, a process which mr bezos has been allowed to extract exorbitant wealth from. this is because of the way the rules are written. it’s really quite simple. change the rules (aka tax structure) and he can still be a wealthy man within reason, but instead the government won’t need to subsidize his
employees with food stamps.

 · 
square.'s comment has been hidden
square.

at the end of the day it’s hard for anyone to argue that it’s reasonable for 3 people to own more wealth than the bottom half of this country’s population. that’s not natural laws, it’s a system that’s been designed. and it can be changed.

 · 
Ancient Sheds's comment has been hidden

you've all elected this Bezos guy, you're pursuit for happiness in the form of laziness...your addiction you peasants -

Britain, in other words, outsourced famine as well as social unrest. There was terrible poverty in this country in the second half of the 19th century, but not mass starvation. The bad harvest of 1788 helped precipitate the French revolution, but the British state avoided such hazards. Others died on our behalf. 



In the late 19th century, Davis shows, Britain's vast deficits with the United States, Germany and its white dominions were balanced by huge annual surpluses with India and (as a result of the opium trade) China. For a generation "the starving Indian and Chinese peasantries … braced the entire system of international settlements, allowing England's continued financial supremacy to temporarily co-exist with its relative industrial decline". Britain's trade surpluses with India allowed the City to become the world's financial capital.


 · 
Ancient Sheds's comment has been hidden

there I took this thread up a notch ;)

 · 
archi_dude's comment has been hidden
archi_dude

Jlax give it up man. You'll get to say I told you so either in a few months or a few years at this rate. Sadly it wont be very comforting when we get there....

 · 
b3tadine[sutures]'s comment has been hidden
b3tadine[sutures]

jlax has been pitching this muddled horseshit for years. he's never been close to be right. fuck, a broken clock has better odds in being right at least twice in one day.

 · 
x-jla's comment has been hidden
x-jla

archi-dude, not trying to convince b3, just putting the perspective out there for any youngsters enticed by the socialism snake oil salesmen.

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square.'s comment has been hidden
square.

yes.. this has been working out so well. two massive financial crises in a decade. what is it you exactly sell? is there even anything to measure against? you seemed to pilfer the grass-is-greener libertarianism with only speculation.

 · 
x-jla's comment has been hidden
x-jla

Square, without a factory, there cannot be factory workers. I’m not denying the value of labor, but like anything else, the price of labor is determined by supply and demand. It takes a vision, risk, luck, and hard work to start a successful company. Not every “worker” is capable or determined in doing so. That’s why they are “workers”. Not everyone can be a millionaire owner...not everyone can be a rock star or nba player. That’s life.

 · 
b3tadine[sutures]'s comment has been hidden
b3tadine[sutures]

without workers, there are no factories. we don't need factories for billionaires to pilfer, we need environments for workers to thrive, control, and live their lives to their fullest capacity. they are not batteries, they are human beings, with rights, needs, and they want to be happy.

 · 
x-jla's comment has been hidden
x-jla

square, years of economic and social betterment in anyplace that’s adopted free markets. Capitalism has lifted more people out of poverty and tended towards expanded liberty for more people than anything else. Not perfect, but beats state removing your uterus because you had 2 kids.

 · 
x-jla's comment has been hidden
x-jla

Just find it ironic that you all want back what you had 3 months ago. I’d think you would be thrilled that companies and job creators are closed. The state is now controlling economy like you wished for.

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Ancient Sheds's comment has been hidden

"The state is now controlling economy like you wished for. " yup yup.

The question is though - is the Economy more important than your diabetic grandma? I think some, if not many, would say yes.

The Millenials had it too easy, I am grateful they are now learning about life. It's a disappointment unless you really try ! - Gen X'er

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midlander's comment has been hidden
midlander

economies are made by states regardless of the particular form of market control they implement. the notion of a "stateless free market" is like the idea of an authorless book. it's no surprise conservatives choose to believe in both; it necessarily implies some god is arranging outside our view. the more thoughtful among us have the audacity to look behind the curtain and ask our government to pull a few levers and help us all out.

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x-jla's comment has been hidden
x-jla

You are arguing to the extremes.

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x-jla's comment has been hidden
x-jla

My point is, covid exposes how useless the state is without the free market. They are really really nothing more than some talking heads and paper pushers in the background. It’s the entrepreneurial class that carries and moves this country along...

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RickB-Astoria's comment has been hidden
RickB-Astoria

"Chad Miller I think it's more fun to call out their stupidity and loss of connection to reality. I can't believe those three are able to function as architects and find clients with such a degree of paranoia."

IIRC, jla-x is not an architect (per licensing law). I think he is a landscape designer.

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Ancient Sheds's comment has been hidden

good one rick! all people who want landscapers are anti-socialist.

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Ancient Sheds's comment has been hidden

I think Jla-x really isn't arguing against socialism, just government. so landscapers are also Anti-Government?

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square.'s comment has been hidden
square.

jla-x - the counter examples you use are laughable extremes (aka i'm waiting for venezuela) - even though some nationalized health care systems are under strain (what health care system in the world isn't); conservative boris j thanked the nhs for saving his life. i am advocating for moderation as well - social democracy. it's been done in countless scandinavian countries that still employ a market to some degree. no one is sitting here asking for the gulag's to come back.. it's a straw-man you love to use.

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Everyday Architect's comment has been hidden

Literal spit take here when jla-x said someone else was arguing to extremes.

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x-jla's comment has been hidden
x-jla

RB, you’ve been self quarantined since 1980s. Good point though. Maybe Architects tend towards socialism because they are control freaks...Us landscape people understand spontaneous order. Maybe something there...idk..

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Non Sequitur's comment has been hidden
Non Sequitur

idk is perhaps the most accurate thing you've said in sometime JLA.

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Ancient Sheds's comment has been hidden

I think Jla-X just one-upped RB on the insults... I think we need to stop confusing "Socialism" with "Government" or you know "Society" in general. If we want to be technical....wait that's it, Architect's are technical and landscapers just kind of wing it ;)

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tduds's comment has been hidden
tduds

"You are arguing to the extremes." 

This is a rich statement from Mr. 'Everything is either Capitalism or Socialism'

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tduds's comment has been hidden
tduds

"My point is, covid exposes how useless the state is without the free market." 

It also exposes how fragile the free market is without the state. 

& pre-emptively, for the millionth time, I'm not advocating for "socialism." I'm pointing out that what you're criticizing isn't socialism and what you're promoting isn't capitalism. You either don't understand the terms or you simplify to the point of others misunderstanding.

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Bench's comment has been hidden
Bench

I also choked on some coffee seeing the 'arguing to extremes' comment here

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x-jla's comment has been hidden
x-jla

I’m not arguing with moderation. I’m arguing with the people who a few weeks ago we’re celebrating the “end of capitalism”. People who were using this to point to the failure of capitalism and efficiency of Chinese communism. You know who you are...

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x-jla's comment has been hidden
x-jla

“This is a rich statement from Mr. 'Everything is either Capitalism or Socialism'”

 · 
x-jla's comment has been hidden
x-jla

^ where did I say everything was capitalism or socialism?

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x-jla's comment has been hidden
x-jla

I’ve actually argued the opposite quite a few times in here. I argued that all systems are hybrids. I’ve argued that “libertarianism” that you all seem to demonize is simply a spectrum not an absolute. The other side of the coin is authoritarianism. When you argue against libertarianism you are arguing towards authoritarianism. That’s a 100% true statement. Any measure to cease and redistribute wealth (like some call for above) requires moving the dial towards authoritarianism. Now that we are dealing with this virus, wondering how you are all liking Expanded authoritarianism under a democratically elected president. That’s all.

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x-jla's comment has been hidden
x-jla

socialism and fascism requires authoritarianism. They are different styles of the same type of strong arm state

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Non Sequitur's comment has been hidden
Non Sequitur

^No, it does not.

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x-jla's comment has been hidden
x-jla

Oh, please explain how you would take my property without?

 · 
Non Sequitur's comment has been hidden
Non Sequitur

what property? No one is taking any of mine up here and we're basically dirty communists in your eyes.

 · 
b3tadine[sutures]'s comment has been hidden
b3tadine[sutures]

No one argued for the efficiency of the Chinese system. In fact I know for certain that many of us have argued the opposite, while additionally holding the same thought in our heads, that Chinese people, both American and non, should not be blamed for a corrupt system.

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tduds's comment has been hidden
tduds

As I said above the common thread and common problem is authoritarianism.

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tduds's comment has been hidden
tduds

"Chinese people , both American and non, should not be blamed for a corrupt system" 

++

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Non Sequitur's comment has been hidden
Non Sequitur

who is blaming me?

 · 
x-jla's comment has been hidden
x-jla

Agree. I literally said same thing about Chinese people. My gripe isn’t even with China. It’s with Westerners who always bash capitalism without acknowledging the positive aspects of a free market and the problems with a government controlled market. That’s all.

 · 
b3tadine[sutures]'s comment has been hidden
b3tadine[sutures]

The free market does not exist. It hasn't in like forever.

 · 
sameolddoctor

Just heard about the "Big G" laying off a 1000 employees globally. Would suck if true.

Apr 16, 20 5:39 pm  · 
 · 
peterjones

It is true.

 · 
Phantom

Is that Gensler?

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peterjones

Yea, Gensler.

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curtkram

did that just happen? I'm working with them on a project

 · 
archanonymous

Gensler is a fairly distributed firm so the layoffs and furloughs have been in waves across their various offices. Usually regional decisions and I think they have 5-7 "regions" in the US with about 5 offices in each region.

 · 
amarchy

Yep, 20% laid off at Gensler. About 1600 people let go worldwide. Half laid off, half furloughed, principals took pay cuts and some staff reduced hours. A billion
dollar firm dried up in 6 weeks.

 · 
maxtong

I gone through 2 recession since graduated from Architectural School and this is my 3rd one... one thing I learned... look after yourself and be ready for the next one. Start your own consulting practice or best to have something on the side doing something different or similar. Diversify is the best strategy.

Apr 16, 20 6:24 pm  · 
 · 

Yep, this layoff happened last Thursday and I am one of the victims. Not sure how many got laid off in the nyc office, but what the office did to me is brutal and I am still angry and depressed at the same time.  

Apr 16, 20 6:26 pm  · 
 · 
msparchitect

"what the office did to me" - What do you mean? In how they told you?

 · 
threeohdoor

Yea, what does this mean?

 · 
lifegoeson

I can’t quite disclose the termination process that I went through here due to the agreement that I signed with my office. But the way they delivered the message of my termination was not humane, that’s all I can say. This company is all about money.  If you can be a corporate junkie, this is the perfect place to be, otherwise, you won’t last too long.  

 · 

Only in America do corporations hold such power that the person just terminated feels a need to protect the corporate overlord.

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thisisnotmyname

I suspect lot of firm owners know they can get away with all sorts of despicable actions because "professionalism" and "not burning bridges" means everybody will keep their mouth shut.

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amarchy

Sorry to hear as a former employee. They are brutal when it comes to letting people go when their ship is sinking. We are just cogs in the wheel no matter how much they pretend to care.

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revolutionary poet

so what tally we at now?  Is there a number on this, total Architectural layoffs to date.

Time to start listening to Ezra Pounds Radio Broadcasts, that got him imprisoned for treason....

Apr 16, 20 7:24 pm  · 
 · 
RickB-Astoria

no

 · 
Taso

10% pay-cut and 10% staff furloughed happened in >100ppl firm in SF Bay Area. Luckily I survived, but it's heart breaking moment everyday since the announcement and to hear the news who became on the list. It's the first recession I'm experiencing.

Apr 16, 20 7:47 pm  · 
 · 
code

Yup, I was there too, back in 08' when I had 2 years at a big office in SF. I've been in Recession mode(putting in extra hours and work weekends) for 11 years now.

 · 
geezertect

It's your first, but it won't be your last.

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Chad Miller

code - your recession mode sounds like a great way to burn out and not protect yourself from being laid off.

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SneakyPete

working more does not protect you from anything if everyone else is doing the same thing. try providing value via knowledge or skills other folks don't have. much more layoff proof.

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square.

yes- in all likelihood these decisions, even if they haven’t happened, are already made aka the bosses already have at least a mental list of who goes first. putting in more time, above and beyond, won’t change a damn thing except to risk you personal well-being

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peterjones

20% of a 6,000+ Employee company.

Apr 16, 20 8:28 pm  · 
 · 

so they run on really thin margins...even the biggest and greatest don't really make money. good to know.

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RickB-Astoria

Architecture business is not a high margin business because architects by large, do not charge enough. They suck at business and most architecture schools do not teach a meaningful business curriculum for architectural education which some here have essentially called worthless.

 · 

If it holds any meaning... I talked about the history of fee rates a while back.... https://archinect.com/blog/article/101927024/george-nelson-nailed-our-design-fee-dilemma-60-years-ago

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square.

really great post, thanks for sharing. need to read that book!

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Non Sequitur

Recently had an office meeting where ownership reiterated their commitment to covering all salaries for the duration of the zombie apocalypse.  So all hourly staff, from the lowest tier draftsmen to senior arch get a full cheque for as long as we're kept home even if they can't commit to a full work week due to children or other responsibilities.

Your turn corporate america.

Apr 17, 20 12:08 pm  · 
 · 
SneakyPete

Good to hear your firm isn't shit. Also have a strong disdain for corporate america. Not sure I'm seeing the connection here unless your firm is a corporation?

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Non Sequitur

last sentence is more of a cute one-liner but we have .inc at the end of our firm's name after all.

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SneakyPete

corporate america will come out of this just fine. they've probably been looking forward to a good plague to kill off the sickly competition. Shit, Lime scooters laid off 12% of its workforce in January yet somehow managed to have enough money to buy up Boosted's IP. Fuck people hard, kill them if you can, but leave just enough to make and buy our shit.

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square.

amazing. same for my office. firms that aren't able to do this have some serious soul searching to do.

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tduds

I'm in a similar situation, Non. Sounds like our SBA was approved so that should help float us all for a little while. Thankfully we still have a lot of projects moving ahead. I feel lucky to work at a firm that gives a shit about the people they employ. I feel disappointed that it's not more common.

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b3tadine[sutures]

I'm thinking the profession needs to take a run at that anti-trust ruling. I mean if we can't make the internet a utility, we need to hit that.

 · 
Bench

Congrats NS. We appear to be fine over here, at least from everything that's been communicated. Who knows for the future though, maybe we need to rehash things over virtual HH.

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Non Sequitur

Good to see similar approaches are out there.

 · 

Similar approach in my office south of the 49th parallel. They still expect us to be as billable and productive as we would normally be ... so that's apparently the difference between us and you commies up north (though between you and me, the office would let your hours slide a little if you had a good reason for it like kids, sickness, etc.).

 · 
proto

We got stiff-armed on the PPP as a "multi-owner" [2 people, both owners] cuz our bank decided to run it that way. Now they are out of funding. IRS stimulus did arrive on 4/15 (minus Trump signature as direct deposit). No idea on EIDL...not a peep from SBA on that since applying 3/31

 · 
CodesareFUN

Apparently SOM just announced paycuts and furloughs.

Apr 17, 20 12:59 pm  · 
 · 
sameolddoctor

Next will be layoffs. SOM employees, make sure to back your shit up, it gets ugly up in that office.

 · 
peterjones

Let's also not forget implications this has on the hiring market after it is all said and done. There will be a plethora of designers looking for work, and those that will be hiring will be good old fashion low bidding because people will be needing jobs, a dark, dark cycle is turning a new leaf. I'm sure this happens with most fields when times get hard but hard to imagine people in our industry taking pay cuts when we already sacrifice quite a bit for low wages.

Apr 17, 20 12:59 pm  · 
 · 
archanonymous

I was trying to be optimistic... hoping it will shake up the job-market and cause the industry to take a look at business as usual. Will be interesting to see if lots of graduating students and the laid-off permanently leave architecture like they did last recession.

 · 

@peterjones - i agree there's going to be some serious churn in the market but i'm not sure salaries will be a race to the bottom. in my seat, if there's someone who's talented and a great fit, we're going to make a run for the long haul. why would we want to hire them for a little less, have them figure that out, become disgruntled, and then leave again? if you're taking advantage of people already... 

@arhanonymous - absolutely agreed. there could be another wave of people just not coming back. 


 · 
archi_dude

Had a discussion with a friend in marketing yesterday. This is my 2nd downturn since school, I think this one is going to be even worse than 08/09. He was annoyed that he's looking at a year without a raise while his old coworkers still in tech were booming and he's thinking he needs to head back. Here we are looking at furloughs and pay cuts and a long employment drought and used to it. If I get cut, I think I'm calling it. Side note as well. It looks like rural states are opening up sooner. Since everything I loved about California is illegal until a vaccine, questioning a move to a more simpler life anyway and giving up on the rat race entirely. What's the point of staying in a high density state if it's illegal to exist.

 · 
square.

i posted this somewhere earlier.. but i would put money on the fact that the large cocktail oriented firm here in nyc laid off 1/3 of their staff knowing that there will be plenty of new desperate grads who will take whatever they can get in a few months.


 · 
code

A lot of firms will see this as an opportunity to "clean house" a lot of people have moved up in pay but not proficiency. They are going to be looking at people who's utilization rats have dropped to 75% or below

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curtkram

i don't think this will be as bad as 08. under that recession, the fundamental way money works got screwed up, which spread across all markets. this is targeting a few specific markets and densely populated areas.

 · 
curtkram

this is a good read. maybe something good comes out of this in the end https://marker.medium.com/america-is-about-to-witness-the-biggest-labor-movement-its-seen-in-decades-3aa47f0edf52

 · 

couple that with universities going under or to virtual education fully; and me sitting here with the 3D printer making PPE and hand sanitizer with Everclear...it's going to happen.

 · 
revolutionary poet's comment has been hidden
revolutionary poet

Beta notes:


I'm thinking the profession needs to take a run at that anti-trust
ruling. I mean if we can't make the internet a utility, we need to hit
that.

How can we start?  I'm even down with just flat out doing whatever they said we can not do.   We are half-ass lawyers, I know there are sly ways like HMO's to control an entire industry "legally".

Apr 17, 20 7:04 pm  · 
 · 
thisisnotmyname

Yes this. The anti-trust landscape is 1000% different than it was in the 1970's. Basically, enforcement of the law is gone and I think it's ok to have a trust now. The AIA just has to figure out the right way to make it so.   I think they could just dust off the old fee guidelines, adjust for inflation, and republish them.

 · 

well let's get crackin'. They didn't have the internet. A place where questionable things can be done anonymously. An anonymous union until it annoys the shit out of authorities and the laws follow common sense and change.

 · 
x-jla's comment has been hidden
x-jla

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.mercurynews.com/2020/04/17/coronavirus-2-5-to-4-2-of-santa-clara-county-residents-infected-stanford-estimates/amp/

Most important news so far.  Of course MSM is not really paying much attention.  Oh the people who lost businesses are going to be very very mad if this is true which it seems it is....Overreaction was justified because we didn’t know, but once we have more confirmation of this, not opening up is going to cause unrest if this Data is correct.  

Apr 17, 20 7:07 pm  · 
 · 
x-jla

Maybe shouldn’t lay anyone off just yet...

 · 

The issue in a nutshell - It IS not the percentage of people who die from the virus, its whether the health care system can handle the amount that could. By handle, I mean effectively handle the threat with some effort. Basically the health care system can't handle a cause of death that puts 1.5% of the population in the hospital. (that's know cases/population of county - Queens). Death caused by Corona in Queens - 0.1% (the morgues can't even handle that) https://bao.arcgis.com/covid-19/jhu/county/36081.html

 · 

Add one more factor to that which is time. Then you would have to look at the rate of virus accepted patients before the shut-down versus after. Take the derivative at the time before shutdown, run that for a bit versus average health care system processing...anyway, that's the modeling spiel....problem is they weren't modeling the economy at same time? unless you know of someone. How many suicides have been now committed due to layoffs?  How many unemployed people will not have money for life saving medications?  would love to see a model for that.

 · 
x-jla

Yeah, a super contagious bug that gets everyone sick in a small window is the problem. Looks like the death rate is far far lower than anticipated though. Maybe 50-80x lower. If the studies are accurate this implies that relatively healthy people can probably return to normal life with risk about same as or a little greater than a bad flu. Not saying flu isn’t bad, and 2x flu is definitely not something to take lightly, but also we don’t shut down society. The economic toll on mental and physical health may outweigh like you say.

 · 

another model you could run, how much lost revenue will affect municipal budgets, budgets that fund hospitals that treat patients?

 · 
midlander

the stanford test has a crucial methodological flaw, in that they asked for volunteers who wanted to get tested. that predisposes them towards people who probably wondered whether that cough they had 6 weeks ago was the coronavirus. even the write-up on this acknowledges this fault: The research may have favored people... with prior COVID-like illnesses who wanted antibody confirmation. don't change your worldview over misinterpretations of weak research.

 · 
midlander

i realize i'm not going to change anyone's mind here who is determined to imagine this is all a conspiracy, since no adult has ever changed their mind based on voluntary readings of a rational argument. but anyway, here is a fairly simple graphic showing that on a weekly basis death by coronvirus is now comparable to heart disease and greater than that of any other disease or accident. and BIG NOTE, this is AFTER we make extraordinary efforts to prevent the spread. if we did nothing, it would be much worse. https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2020/04/16/coronavirus-leading-cause-death/?arc404=true

 · 
midlander

just to belabor the point, if the economic hardship so far has caused 10X the normal number of people to commit suicide every week, that would still be less than the number of people dying of corovirus AFTER WE MINIMIZE the spread of infection.

 · 
midlander

now if your argument is that effective tracing and testing should have been started before the virus became endemic in order to minimize the economic impact - totally agree on that. why didn't anyone consider that when it was still possible?

 · 
x-jla

The number may be skewed, but there are undoubtedly far more mild cases than have been recorded in official numbers. This isn’t a conspiracy, it’s a reality that every entomologist has acknowledged as highly likely. It’s also not a conspiracy that msm loves sensationalism. That makes them money. The virus has given them a huge rating boost. If results of this study are confirmed in more places it will really change the narrative and probably cause more distrust ...(note they tested a town in Germany and 15% of population had
antibodies which was also 50 something times the official numbers)

 · 
RickB-Astoria

Lengthy post below:

Why wasn't all airports and sea ports of entry and other ports of entry closed on January 1st? The President would have known about on December 31st. Of course, the closure could have exceptions for packages and such that they can sterilize with the same setup they have for sterilizing packages from potential Anthrax and other biological contamination which is normally done as it is. While controversial, it would have contained this before cases that appeared in the U.S. The first U.S. case was in the middle of January and everyone that brought the virus into the U.S. did so after January 1st. They could have been locked out of the country or routed to quarantine facilities in Guam and other isolated location by mandate. The same protocol that was implemented in case individuals were infected by any one of the many known and extremely dangerous engineered bioweapons. The controversial act as it maybe would have reduced the case by 99% at least. The key is speed to respond. In 2001, the then-POTUS was able to have all airports shutdown within 1 HOUR of issuing the order through the FAA. They could have through systematic process, radioed and through phone, issue emergency order to shut down and block all passenger vessels coming from outside the U.S. from docking and all U.S. vessels leaving the U.S. with passengers from leaving or required to return back to U.S. and go through quarantine screening and then returned completely. This immediate speed of action would have saved lives, mitigate infection and with some appropriate protocols banning/blocking international travel (other than the controlled processes of package delivery and transfer as well as keeping ship personnel on the ship and whatever steps needed to mitigate infection) but allow businesses to otherwise still operate. 

While there would be some effect on business, it would have not required the extent of the shut down. Some businesses would have been impacted like international flights but travel between U.S. states could have still occurred but not between countries when it comes to the uncontrolled passenger travel of airflight and passenger ships (eg. cruise ships). They would be quarantined outside of regular airport which would have some airports closed off from general public for quarantine process and ultimately decontaminate the locations. Full-body environmental suits used like they use for radiological, biological, and chemical warfare scenarios. Just a few weeks of Trump denying the coronavirus, was just the few weeks needed for 100,000 individuals infected (without knowing they were) to enter the country and immediately go place to place socializing with all their friends and family and in turn getting them infected. This is why mitigation steps to these scenarios needs to happen in hours not days or weeks. Starting with the most extreme measure and stepping it down as needed. This doesn't stop the global impact completely but some of the countries could have done similar protocols as described and if enough of them did so, the situation would be contained to some degree. Once people got into the U.S. and through the airport and seaports of entry, they go around seeing people and even infecting people whom they might not have even talked to so the tracing where these people went is only as good as the person's recollection and disclosure of where they went. This is why it is kind of a f---ed up situation with a POTUS who doesn't listen to science and intelligent people with education let alone take the steps necessary to mitigate before people got in. 

If he took extraordinary measure on January 1st, (while getting flack for the extreme steps) he could have mitigated the risk when the numbers of infected were in the hundreds to a few thousand or less before entering U.S. main population. After 3-4 months of blocking international travel, those infected would have ultimately spend their 2 months of quarantine... either dying or getting through it and been through it for 2-4 weeks before being released. Once everyone quarantined has been through it, the problem would have been abated in the U.S. but international travel would continue and slowly open up to countries that have not had a new case for 6 consecutive months with testing and those that had been quarantine have had 6 months of not getting reinfected at the same time not opening international travel with equal scenario. The lives of individuals infected maybe disrupted significantly but the country as a whole would have had a much smaller disruption and still significant saving of lives. Yes, ultimately, some people on vacation in other countries would be locked down there and ultimately international agreements would be made for them to return as soon as possible and for them to manage care for them to the best of their abilities. The virus entered the U.S. from outside from people who were directly infected while in China or infected at airports and ports in China and then outside China when people left China to other countries and at the ports where people are congested going through metal detectors and what not and then packed into flying and floating cans of farts (airplanes and passenger ships), where people are next to each other in seats. The person next to you isn't even a foot distance from physical contact. The person behind you is only two to three feet and a sneeze or cough can contaminate the seat and person effectively contaminating you with their viruses and/or bacteria from the back of your head. If you scratch the back of your head because of an itch then your hands are infected and then all over your body (face, mouth, etc.). You may infect another person.... ALL while you don't have any apparent symptoms for 10 to 15 days. All the while, you can infect dozens of individuals a day for each of those days. So yeah, the infection can be a LOT higher than 1:3 ratio in highly densely populated areas like airports and theaters and so forth. It is possible. Now imagine that. 

What could have been prevented if temporary but extreme measures which may seem controversial when the problem seemed like its only a small minor issue. Its controllable when it is a small snow ball but it eventually turns into an avalanche which you can't control. Lucky, we responded at some point in-between but it could have been better handled. China government has its own problem in their communication but the U.S. President didn't respond with the necessary steps, early enough. Too much denial for too long given how contagious this virus was. That is the bottom line which inadvertently resulted in the scale of layoffs. It could have been much less (at least in the U.S.) I won't answer or speak too much about all the other countries. The speed of international travel is one of the big reasons the virus spread so vast and so quickly. Responses requires split second decision making not decision making at the speed of Congress.

 · 
x-jla

We need random testing, but the numbers are certainly going to lower the cfr. The cfr is what drives fear. Fear is what drivers behavior. The msm has been instilling fear and focusing on the rare young deaths to persuade compliance with stay at home orders...appealing to selfishness rather than altruism. Understandable, but also BS. Another BS lie was that masks are ineffective. Remember that line. Anyone who believed it is dumb, but the motive was to steer people from hoarding masks. Rather than tell people not to horde masks, they simply said that they didn’t work, and that in fact it was MORE dangerous to have one on. The dummies believed it. It’s fucking common sense, but...

 · 
x-jla

Anyway, this totally flips the script. 50-85x May be high because of biased group, but it’s certainly going to be many many times higher. I personally know dozens of people who had symptoms and denied testing. The real BIAS is that they only tested people who were severely ill or celebrities.

 · 
x-jla

Rick, There are quite a few

 · 
x-jla

doctors who think this was here since December. There were

 · 
Apple_Juice_Yes

It doesn't matter if covid-19s lethality rate is low. The issue is its highly contagious nature that isn't fully understood.

You can have a virus with 100% fatality rate that isn't contagious. It kills 1 person. You can have a virus with 1% fatality rate that is highly contagious and so it spreads to 10,000 people. It kills 100 people.

A contagious virus, despite a low CFR, has explosive growth potential. That's why countries are doing what they are doing.

 · 
midlander

i agree with you here jla-x. panic is a counterproductive reaction - hording TP was a sign of miscommunicated urgency. an earlier but more coordinated response to take effective preventive actions would have been much better than belated response followed by heavy-handed correction and panic. too late to fix that! this is the problem in dealing with an unknown epidemic - no one knows how bad it can be, until it's really bad. of course, in recent years smart people put together a lot of guidance for just such a situation. they now have an excellent chance to say "i told you so!"

 · 
RickB-Astoria

jla-x, it is possible some got through before January 1, 2020. However, the very first case of the coronavirus (in the world) was identified in mid to late December. There was a particular wet market area (meat market) where the virus "got loose" through that venue and it was how the first American got it when the person was in the Wuhan district. It began there. The foreigners that were in China was there during the Holidays and then unknowingly took the virus with them when they left. They were there for Christmas / Winter Solstice Festival. Those getting infect outside Wuhan district was a matter of week or so later than in Wuhan district where they began getting it during Thanksgiving to Winter Solstice|Christmas festivities time frame. China abroad was getting it closer to Christmas to International New Years time frame and this is when the news broke. If someone got here in December, maybe but data largely shows that this wasn't an issue for U.S. until after New Years because most of the people in China that were from other countries including U.S. were there through the Holidays. There may have been a small number that got into the U.S. before January 1st and they could have contained that and got most of those people quarantine if they sent out people to those people on January 1st or 2nd by looking at every air flight record. The problem kept growing with people were getting infected from those that came home from China and those from other countries when the virus was spreading over there like Europe. China flights largely arrives at west coast airports. NY and east coast airports are largely from Europe. Same with passenger ships and most cruise ships were being anchored off-shore at this points. Passenger ships are relatively slow traffic. The fast traffic flow was from air flights. I think a lot of it came through air flights and via airports which are notoriously densely packed with people during the holidays. This is why January 1st/2nd is critical timing. A week or two later and you missed the critical chance of opportunity to mitigate before enough people came into the U.S. with the virus.

 · 
RickB-Astoria

The TP shortage was a face-palm moment because that's stocking up on something that wouldn't have done them any good. A complete WTF? What is buying all that toilet paper going to do in regards to the virus? Wrong supply for the needs.

 · 
CodesareFUN

People poop more when scared.

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x-jla

Apple, yeah but a fatality rate of 1 an a billion isn’t going to cause you panic like a fatality rate of 1 in a hundred. Us humans organize our lives based on assessing risk vs reward. We fly through the sky in metal tubes at 600mph because it has a low risk of death. If 1:100 of airplanes crashed I certainly wouldn’t fly. Like I said, novel viruses have to play it safe until we know. If we Find we were w

 · 

in simpler terms - if you live in a hotspot you get it. if you don't you will think this is a type of "conspiracy". generally urban areas are the hotspots and urban areas vote blue and rural areas are not the hotspots and vote red. i mean if I was a politician its time to start the propaganda!

 · 
RickB-Astoria

CodesareFUN..... only if they are full of shit. If they simply don't eat quite as much then they will not have as much shit to poop. There is a correlation of shit output to food intake. We all know Trump is eating a lot because we know he's always full of it.

 · 
RickB-Astoria

Ancient Sheds, that's because of population density and generally the location of international airports (usually major airports are international airports) and also location for cruise ships with passengers tend to dock (ports of entry if you may for foreign visitors and travelling internationally.) In this situation, that's more the truth and case given this virus entered the U.S. through airports and to some extent passenger ships.

 · 
RickB-Astoria

Places like Astoria, Oregon (and Seaside, Oregon) / Clatsop County could have had a higher percentage of people infected and possible deaths if we had the cruise ships coming in and people from Portland coming into town that maybe infected adding to an influx of people in the area getting infected if the closing down operation, stopping cruise ships coming in to town, and Portlanders coming to the area and intermingling in things like the Sunday Market where the coronavirus would have had spiked in spreading in that situation and a matter of time a spike of cases. It could have been more severe in locality of tourism and vacation. These would be potential secondary hot spots or hot points of infection when a lot of people are in close proximity to each other where there is no social distance of any kind. The measures to prevent or mitigate the scale of the epidemic is at least have been to some degree successful while there are room for improvement and there were steps the POTUS could have taken for emergency mitigation that could have taken place much more boldly and promptly. Other countries could have also taken such steps and it would have done so on an international scale which would have lowered the impact of the virus with some measure. Even 50% reduction would be significant on a global scale. If U.S. mitigated matters resulting in a 90% to 95% reduction promptly as soon as the news first came out in China on December 31, 2019, we could have mitigated this significantly with prompt actions even if controversial. China was moving pretty quick and that is why much of the situation was contained mostly in the Wuhan district and immediate area. However, by the time they mobilized, too many foreigners took flights out of the area and returned to U.S. and other countries. If prompt actions were made, those infected could have been in quarantine in the Wuhan area and in China until they no longer were no longer infected and not getting re-infected for a significant period of time and then allowed to return as soon as it would be safe to do so. Steps would have been needed to isolate and quarantine anyone infected or potentially infected that got here and those that would be infected by them IMMEDIATELY starting as early as January 1 or 2 of 2020. That is the speed of response needed within hours and days of being informed. If the POTUS knew about it in mid-December then steps should have been made in mid-December. It all depends on when the POTUS knew or been briefed on this and immediate measures needed to take place. This would have been unprecedented and controversial but it would have been a risk mitigation move that the POTUS could have saved lives because as knowledge of the virus became known, it would have been easily projected that without the measures, significantly more lives would have been lost and more people infected. The virus spread rate is fast so you have to be faster in steps and measure implemented because the speed of international travel which would be the split second and near break-neck speed of mitigation responses needed. Steps and actions taken were too little and too slow at the beginning.

 · 
archi_dude's comment has been hidden
archi_dude

1 million dead with social distancing, wait 500k wait 200k wait 100k wait 70k wait 60k.  You might catch it twice though! Logical conclusion. Hide inside forever.....

Apr 18, 20 12:10 pm  · 
 · 
RickB-Astoria

The key is to the stay at home part is so if you are infected, you and your family might get infected but not go around spreading it to others and if everyone did it and followed the protocols to the letter then it would just be a waiting game for the virus infection to go through the process and then be effectively over. This would have been maybe 2 months. If actions were taken quickly enough were taken, every passenger from all flights from outside this country and same with ships would be quarantined for 2 months away from the populations and international travel locked down during a 3-6 month time frame would have allowed domestic business operations and international business operations to continue (albeit without involving international travelling aside from shipment of goods and supplies which would be operating under heighten protocols). As soon as China got things under lock down, there was halt in travel to and from China. The problem was the virus spread because of those who infected got on a plane or ship out of the country (mostly the planes) out of the country and ultimately they brought that virus with them, infecting effectively, everyone on the plane because people can be infected by the virus and yet NEVER showed any signs of the virus infection and infect others during the time. That's the problem we have with the virus. Not everyone will show symptoms yet have the virus in them and infect others.

 · 
Dangermouse

idk why you tards struggle so much with causality.

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RickB-Astoria

The protocol of isolating the infected like they did with Typhoid would have mitigated if implemented early before anyone in China in the Wuhan district left the country. The problem involved lack of communication, denial of science and facts, slow actions to take steps, too little steps early because of the previously stated factors to the problem and others, and people not taking the seriously the protocol seriously enough until the problem began snowballing and becoming a concern. People aren't concern when it is only a few dozen but when it is in the tens of thousands and quickly into the hundreds of thousands with deaths in the tens of thousands across the U.S. then it becomes an issue. Right. Why not take the right measure and squash it when its small and controllable? Even today, some people aren't really taking the situation serious enough.

 · 
RickB-Astoria

Anyway, enough with "could haves". Doesn't do shit for us now but lessons that maybe needed in the future for future cases of a viral outbreak. Now, I'm certain the burning question or concern now is how are we going to get back to work in our occupational careers and so forth. Normality isn't going to happen for probably months in a number of states. I don't expect the executive orders by the governors of a number of states like Oregon (for example) until September. Some of them maybe adjusted a little bit for colleges with certain courses that can't really be online like hands-on oriented courses in welding. That may need to be adjusted some but with steps to mitigate social distancing as needed. However, some of the other executive orders might not be lifted until we are in 2021. It is hard to say. Just being realistic. It all depends on the science. I don't expect us to quite be to have all the executive order requirements dropped until we are in 2021. Social distancing conditions (maybe amended but still mandates) may still be operating into 2021. Economy wise, it might not be back to where we were until 2023 to 2025 or so is a good guess but each business will be running at different mileage on the matters. Some might rebound quicker than others. It is likely to be a long haul that will be over the next 5 years.

 · 
archi_dude

And is that really a logical solution?

 · 
x-jla

Meanwhile, sit home eat like shit, get overweight, don't exercise, smoke, drink, sit home unemployed, stress out about bills, etc. that’s not a healthy way to live. There are consequences for everything. Life is sometimes about weighing risks. Numbers help is weigh risks. If this has a cfr similar to the flu for most of the healthy population, then we should shelter the vulnerable and try to get back to normal.

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x-jla

One of the reasons I’m so touchy about this lately is because 2 of my sons 16 yo classmates OD on drugs while home quarantined with family. One died. My son didn’t know them well. I can’t help but think the stress and isolation of this may have contributed. Yes they probably did drugs before this, but could that have been the straw that broke the camels back? This is going to create a generation of social anxiety, depression, economic strife, and neurotic behavior.

 · 
x-jla

We are trying to avoid a physical health crisis, but going to create a social and mental health crisis. It’s a trade off of course, and may be justified, but as new data comes in political leaders and media must be willing to quickly adjust to the new knowledge without worrying about saving face and egotistical things.

 · 
x-jla

It’s that I have little faith in.

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curtkram

jla, have you been listening to como's addresses in new york? he's absolutely listening to new facts as they are available and quickly adjusting. clogging up hospitals with covid patients on ventilators takes away resources that could otherwise help people that need rushed to the hospital with drug overdoses as well as allergic reactions or any other emergency medical event, which is why we need to stay on social distancing until the smart people like cuomo or fauci, who have better information than you do, say otherwise

 · 
RickB-Astoria

"And is that really a logical solution?" Archi_dude, I don't know with certainty what the governor of Oregon is going to do or how the decisions will actually play out as no one will know. I am partly hypothesizing from what it looks like it will be. Summer as we normally had it is for the most part isn't happening. State workers and those I know who work in sectors with regular contact with state workers are looking at this issue lingering into Autumn. (September/October) It may take longer. The governor is basing decisions for gradual incremental re-opening entirely based on the science and data relating to the virus pandemic. It isn't being reopened based on what the POTUS would like. It is being based on science and input from the medical and medical science field such as epidemologists (sp?) and data.... a scientific approach to determining the risk of opening up with public health priority over economic interests. There is conflict between the economic interests and the public health interest but the Governor is prioritizing on the matter of public health while economic interest is a factor of concern but the goal isn't to reopen things up if it results in the epidemic crisis spiking up again and basically result in a second wave of deaths and infections going above capacity. There is more to it including capacity of the health care system handling the crisis. Testing capacity. Medical treatment capacity and ability. A lot of factors that is medical related and medical driven decision making is the priority in the decisions. One can criticize it but that is how it is and nothing that I, alone, could do about it. I can only do what I can do with regards to business operations but suspending building design services is a decision I am making for factor of safety of family members and the decision was easier to make when not having established contract to provide services at the time this situation became the big news here with closing orders. Since my services often involves working with existing homes (renovations, additions, etc.) and other existing buildings, the work involves on-site work and with stay at home orders, it becomes a difficult scenario with them complying with stay at home order if I have to visit because then how do we properly meet and handle the issue of social distancing and other issues relating to the situation. Add to that, people were going to get laid off. Many clients are either employees or business owners and in BOTH cases, all are having a tough time so it isn't the time for them to be spending money on services when they don't have an income or having much lower income. Why provide a service that can actually wait? I know emergency situations maybe an exception but seriously, what needs they be can be handled fine with licensed architects/engineers. They need the money when I can do something else at least for the time being. The need to provide residential design services in the area isn't needed that much and most commercial building design services for projects that would be exempt are needed either or in demand when the small businesses are doing what they can to stay in business so having me as an additional line item on their list of costs isn't going to help them when they can delay the work until things get back to normal. I may reassess availability of services later when things begin to reopen up. That is unlikely to happen for some months. I do check the news especially that from the Governor's office for Oregon and Washington. In my case, both states matters and makes sense if you know my geographic locality. I'm sure you know over the years. There is no sense in meet fighting with my peers who are licensed for the few work there is at this moment in time compared to usual.

 · 
RickB-Astoria

In the case of Fauci, this isn't his first rodeo with epidemics. He has advised presidents on these matters for decades... every president since Ronald Reagan. Yes, the current President of the U.S. can either take his advice or don't take them and cause unnecessary problems. These advices aren't necessarily giving policy directions but facts and this isn't a one man advising show. I may have my knowledge of options that could have been taken at the beginning early IF the POTUS had the gumption and take cautionary steps that may seem extraordinary for what may appear to be a small problem so it doesn't snowball into a super big problem that is near impossible to contained. Dr. Fauci, at least, I can take his words with better credence than Donald Trump who doesn't have a good track record is honesty. The very missing character of Trump with a record of confirmed lies and intentional misrepresentation while serving as President by a large margin. Dr. Fauci is a professional who is a medical professional. The only thing tarnishing him is Trump himself and his administration under his direction causing things to be harder and more difficult than it needs to be. So the policy and policy implementation (aside from Congress) rests with the POTUS and the administration of the Executive branch and all the mess ups that has happened IS because of Trump. That is why we need better leadership elected but that is for November's election. As for Dr. Fauci, he isn't really a partisan person. He's a professional that we can at least respect with professional regard even if there are differing professional opinions on the matter. Donald Trump hasn't earned the credibility.

 · 
b3tadine[sutures]

My favorite part of the stupid, is decrying the downward trend of the death figures, to me you are operating on such a low level of intellectual capacity, it makes me want to steal all of your clients. I really feel for them, to have to deal with that level of stupid must be mind numbing.

 · 
square.

right, it's as if they think a field hospital in central park and a military hospital ship in the hudson are tenable..

 · 
x-jla

Well, it’s important to know if we are seeing a sneak peek of the virus, or the tip of a much larger iceberg. The numbers, hospital rates, CFR determines the potential Stress on the system. I think much of the worry was based on a over exaggerated CFR and hospitalization rate because of limited testing that’s biased towards the most severe cases. If those numbers are adjusted, the worst case scenario is far less than what’s been projected. Of course any death is bad, but these hospitals are equipped to handle a certain case load. Many states are not overwhelmed. It’s really mostly places with high density because less hospitals per capita. Lower deaths is likely because of social distancing AND the fact that the virus is less deadly overall than anticipated. We don’t know how many NYers were infected yet. Standard testing of pregnant women seems to suggest 15% are positive and 80% have no symptoms at all. (probably not 100% representative of population but magnitudes higher than official numbers..) Fortunately, they are doing an antibody study in NY starting today of random population sample. It will be interesting to see results.

 · 
amarchy's comment has been hidden
amarchy

agree with you Everyday Architect. Loathe getting emails from management at midnight or  4am.

Apr 18, 20 3:47 pm  · 
 · 
curtkram

what i've learned is that you can save a draft and then send it at 8:00 the next morning

 · 
tintt

I had a conference call on easter. Kinda ruins your day. I wish I was collecting unemployment.

 · 

You are all slackers and lucky to be sooo spoiled, keep that in mind. You could be working at a grocery store or driving a truck right now. Just sayin'. You could even live in a country - OMG - that doesn't even know what an economy is or have Wuhan Virus testing ability....carry-on ;)

It appears at least your management is trying and what are you doing?

 · 
curtkram

if you're waiting until easter to get your shit together, you aren't managing your time or resources well. that's not really 'trying.'

 · 
tintt

For the record, I always email back right away especially at 4 am because that's when the work day starts for those of us who have careers and then also have to teach common core math during the day which involves drawing 51 circles and then x-ing one out and then counting the circles that aren't x-ed out to solve 51-1=?

 · 

sounds like a lot of excuses. Wait, who works with who here? that escalated quickly.

 · 
tintt

The answer is 50.

 · 

well if you 50 circles I get it. I do! I used to play this game a lot in school.

Wolfenstein 3D | ClassicReload.com

. wait where am I PI



 · 
drums please, Fab?

Castle Wolfenstein! YES!

 · 

we should get an archinect online Wolfenstein game going, like the old days in Studio?

 · 
Non Sequitur's comment has been hidden
Non Sequitur

Not related to layoffs, but is there really a % of the US population protesting against the C19 stayhome efforts? 

Apr 20, 20 6:49 am  · 
 · 
threeohdoor

A very small percentage, but yes. Many of these protests have facebook pages and websites set up in "dubious" fashion (ie - all registered in Florida). If the protesters were of any group other than your standard white person with a rifle wearing sunglasses and MAGA hats and cosplaying Call of Duty, I might give them a bit more leeway.

There is a mismatch between government bailout and aid, and the needs of the people and small business. For instance, my pediatrician wasn't able to get a loan through the SBA program and now...they might close in a couple months. People are rightfully pissed off about how inept and meager and confusing our governments (feds, state, local) have acted. People get irrational when they can't provide for themselves or their families. 

 · 
archi_dude

I believe they are mostly protesting restrictions that have increased even while the rate of new cases have fallen. Few are actually arguing for an end to mitigation efforts.

 · 
Bench

Yep, its real. Early indications suggest it's largely astroturfing spurred on by Koch-registered subsidiaries - similar to what threeohdoor mentioned, the facebook groups all tend to use essentially the same wording/language in their descriptions and demands, suggesting a centralized organizer cutting and pasting. Thanks 'Murica.

 · 
OneLostArchitect

Funded by George Soros. Yes.

 · 
Non Sequitur

Thanks for the POV. I assume the headlines that make their way up here pass through several click-bait filters to draw traffic.

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square.

yes.. it's a zombie style reawakening of the tea-party movement, its last stand because their leader and party has all but eviscerated their central platform of small government.

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Bench

^ ^ Was also hearing the reports this morning that it's essentially the old tea-party groups recongregating. Thanks Obama!

 · 
Chad Miller

Yeah we had a 'protest' here to re open our economy. The day after I was walking my dog at a park while I wore a mask. A man and a woman came up behind me and proceeded to cough on me (they weren't wearing masks). I sprang away from them and told them to stop. The man called me a 'liberal sheep' then said 'I'm 'gonna give you the 'rona', and tried to cough on me again. I told him to stay away from me. Then the man reached twords my dog and said 'come here, I'm gonna give you something'. My dog hid behind me.  I drew my pistol and ordered the man to stop and back up.  I detained the pair and then, called the cops and they where arrested for assault and making terrioristic threats. 


This is the type of crap that happens because of our president.   

 · 
x-jla

^you wouldn’t happen to be Jussie Smollet?

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x-jla

Jk, you should have called police on them. They are charging people with terrorism for shit like that.

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Non Sequitur

Chad, are you not allowed to shoot them in this situation? Self-defense and whatnot... at least in a knee cap or something. Poor doggie.

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Bench

Sorry to hear Chad, that is fucked up.

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OneLostArchitect

Chad (Jussie Smollett)... this is MAGA country!

 · 
OneLostArchitect

Chad this has to be a joke right? lol

 · 
tintt

Yeah they are trying to solve the problem with memes, red hats, daisy dukes, and bad grammar.

 · 
tintt

And guns.

 · 
archanonymous

wow Chad that's pretty scary... not that you would actually contract or die from COVID-19, but just that its being politicized and weaponized so much...

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Chad Miller

It's not a joke or fabrication. The couple was arrested and charged with assault and making terroristic threats.

I have no idea what political affiliation these two people have.  I do think they have mental issues and the current political climate encouraged their behavior.  

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Bench

"I have no idea what political affiliation these two people have."


...... I have a pretty good idea.

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Non Sequitur

Chad, I'm still waiting for the delayed april fools joke... Do you live in a town filled with Jawknee-type delusional wankers?

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x-jla

I’m sure they are not all there...my friend is a cop and some Hasidic Jewish kids were coughing on the police in nyc because they were defying the stay at home orders. The kids were like 10 years old. There are vids online of it.

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Non Sequitur

^Religion is expect from reason.

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Chad Miller

NS - we had one of those 'protests' here to open the economy up. Any time there is a rally or protest like this a few dickheads come out the next day an act dumb. Also a lot of lifted trucks with confederate flags and truck nuts.

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x-jla

Well, the protests are just the beginning. I’m guessing the lawsuits are going to be flooding in soon. Wonder if stores are making employees sign something to waive liability?

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x-jla

I’ve been wearing a mask to store. 50% of people will just brush right past you with no mask, grab shit off shelf 2’ away from you....people are really rude and annoying. Surprisingly, I’ve noticed a disproportionate amount of these mask less rude peolle are also the ones in the high risk category....fat people with carts full of unhealthy foods.

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x-jla

Guess not caring about health is the common thread.

 · 
randomised

I found out that a little cough now and then will keep most people at a safe distance.

 · 
randomised

And about stores making people sign something:

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x-jla

Those sneaky bastards lol.

 · 

That last sentence feels pretty hollow after going through everything else, no?

 · 
x-jla

Wow. That’s shitty for sure. A good case for unions. I like unions, just not mandatory ones. They are too powerful to be useful

 · 
OneLostArchitect's comment has been hidden
OneLostArchitect

I cannot wait for Joe Biden to become president!

Apr 20, 20 11:06 am  · 
 · 
Volunteer's comment has been hidden
Volunteer

In what town is it necessary to carry a gun for a walk in the park with your dog?

Apr 20, 20 1:20 pm  · 
 · 

All of them ... because America

 · 
Non Sequitur

pew pew.

 · 
Chad Miller

Required - no. However when all the local stores that carry firearms are sold out of handguns, short barreled shotguns, AR's and their associated ammo within 5 hours of the hint of a quarantine I decided I'd carry when I left the house.

I'm licensed and unlike most people,  trained quite extensively to carry a concealed firearm.  I do not like to carry but sometimes it's needed.     

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Chad, isn't that kind of the issue though? If the reaction to something uncertain like a pandemic or quarantine causes everyone to make a run on ammo and guns, and makes others like you feel it is needed to carry one (even if you don't like to) to leave the house and/or walk the dog ... as proto indicated further down the page has it gotten to the point of everything looking like a nail? I do think your comment above says a lot about some of the unfortunate side effects of gun ownership (though I suppose that is also up for debate ... many might think this is exactly how it should be).

I'll reiterate proto's statement as my own ... that I'm glad you and your dog are safe.

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x-jla

I don’t carry gun, but definitely feel safer with gun in home.

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Chad Miller

EA - See my response to Rick below. As for your second comment - you may be correct. A lot of people out here carry firearms - both concealed and openly (it's legal here). The main reason I carry is other firearm owners. I'd say 90% of people who carry out here (concealed and open) have no idea how to use firearm for self defense and the limitations in using one. Using a firearm in self defense is a scary, ugly, and final response. The vast majority of people out here don't understand that.

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CodesareFUN's comment has been hidden
CodesareFUN

In America, the line “is that a gun in your pants or are you just happy to see me?” Is almost always a gun.

Apr 20, 20 1:24 pm  · 
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CodesareFUN

Also a not insignificant number of people believe this is the 19th coronavirus and have Guns. That’s a scary thought.

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x-jla

Not scary at all. Most gun owners are law abiding people. It’s the criminals that are scary.

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x-jla

The ones the liberals are trying to release from jail because of the virus.

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Chad Miller

In my case I am jut happy to see you. 8-)

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b3tadine[sutures]

Jlax, stop being a fuck nut. The only people I want out of jail are non violent offenders. Stupid drug crimes, shop lifting, etc...

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x-jla

I agree on that. Just stirring the shit. Don’t you get that by now?

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x-jla

Sometimes I really believe what I say, sometimes I’m dampening what seems like an echo chamber, other times I’m being your whetstone, and Sometimes I just want to annoy people. It depends on my mood and/or THC intake. I think those peolle should be out of jail with or without covid.

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x-jla

Except Cosby. That dude is trying to get out. FOH

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b3tadine[sutures]

Dude, my patience is tried. I have yet to choke someone out yet, or pull a gun, Chad sorry you had to do that. I'm fortunate to have a pit bull, and wear my jiu-jitsu club hat and pullover when walking in public, but mostly I carry a NJ-tude, and a 260 6'2" frame that's typically all I need. So when I read about maga types roaming stupid, I get amped about people who are in jail, for shit most whytes won't be in jail for, or people can't bond out because they're poor.

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x-jla

You get to free all black people in jail for weed, or Free joe exotic and lock up Carol Baskin? Pick one.

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b3tadine[sutures]

Not even a question.

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Chad Miller

bt3 - I'm a big guy as well 6'-3", 260 pounds. I have a very affable face though - some say teddy bear like. Also my dog is an 18 pound beagle / pug mix. Apparently those things and my face-mask being a rainbow patter made the two people think I was soft. Whoopsie on them.

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proto's comment has been hidden
proto

coming to this story late...sort of surprised the cough terrorists weren't of the gun toting political persuasion in this story. I'm sorry they were assholes, but pulling a lethal weapon on them seems a bit much, no?

Apr 20, 20 3:00 pm  · 
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x-jla

I’d probably just kick him in the gonads.

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Non Sequitur

What the point of arming yourself with silly murder toys if you can't use them whenever?

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Chad Miller

That's your view. My view (ant the police) was that if someone was that deranged to do that who the heck knows what else they where going to do. Also I was unable to get away without going right past the couple. I had no idea if they where armed.

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proto

Yes, it is pure opinion & I wasn't there. My reaction from hundreds of miles away is this is the unfortunate side of gun ownership: everything looks like a nail. My guess is with different tools you'd have a different decision matrix that would still result in a safe dog walk. Again, pure speculation on my part...but not necessarily wrong because of that speculation either. I'm glad you and your pup are safe.

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Chad Miller

Totally understand. When you carry a firearm every conflict is lethal. Hence why I was trying to get away and not interact with the couple. They literally boxed me into a corner. After the first interaction with the couple my dogie and I went on ahead. We stopped at a tree that was near the fence line. The fence itself made a little box around the tree on three sides with the 24" dia tree in the center of the open end. My dog went to pee on the far side of the tree, I followed him in. Then the couple came up and stood on each side of the tree - blocking me in. They confronted me again - I again told them to back off. Things then unfolded as I said above.

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tintt

Do you think they targeted you because you were wearing a mask?

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RickB-Astoria

Chad Miller, I would disagree. You would be correct to say every conflict is POTENTIALLY lethal. Actually all conflicts are. Not everyone who carries a firearm is shooting people That is flat out wrong and stupid. SOME and I say SOME people may be irresponsible and shoot people and it is an outright insult to everyone who carried a gun and not had to shoot someone or even shoot them in a lethal manner that resulted in death. You should choose your words better.

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Chad Miller

Rick - to be fair I should have written 'every conflict is potentially lethal when you carry a firearm' You're carrying a firearm - if you get into a fight the firearm can be taken away from you and used against you. You now have to protect your firearm. If someone tries to grab it you now have a life or death situation. When you carry you simply try to avoid any conflict that could get physical. Somebody calls you a dickhead - you just ignore them - walk away. Somebody shoves you - ignore them - walk away. Somebody cuts you off - you do nothing. You continue in that line of conflict avoidance until you cannot get away.


Any form of violence is the last resort.  

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Chad Miller

tint - I think so.

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Chad Miller

Rick - Oh, and my words where 'please don't cough on me' ,'stay away from me will you?'  'stop following me', 'stay away', 'back off', 'back up, hand on your head'. 'kneel down, cross your ankles', 'don't move, I'm calling the police'

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Chad Miller

Rick - in response to your post edit about all conflicts be potentially lethal - you're wrong. It's that type of reasoning that leads to people being shot when there was a non lethal way to resolve the conflict. Just walk away if you can.

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RickB-Astoria

Seriously, I'm speaking about facts of a real world not the asinine logic that you are peddling. You are making ASSumptions (right out of your ass at that) that everyone who carries a gun uses the gun to shoot and kill people. You simply claimed by inference that EVERYONE who carries a weapon shoots people as a means to resolve conflict. Guess what, guns are not the only means to lethality dipshit. You are born with means and methods of killing as part of your body. Your very own hands. The problem of people killing others isn't the gun or weapons in and of themselves. It is their own psychological issues that is preventing them from exercising a calm and rational way to resolve issues. You make a suggestion to walk away (if you can). Humans are animals like all of animal life on this planet. We are territorial like many mammals. This behavior is seen in primates and non-primate mammals and other animal species including possessiveness. If we simply got rid of the notion and concept of owning land and what not, we may very well be a different kind of people. Territorialism is something that will not ever go away because it is built into our genetics. You can't merely will it away. However, you can observe your behavior and emotions and even overcome the urges that may come from strong emotions. This takes a discipline akin to that of Vulcans from Star Trek. The truth is, we are not a disciplined people in at least 90% of human civilizations on this planet. The problem is not the gun or club (back in our cave man era). The problem is self control. However, each individual has different levels of self control in each of the varying circumstances. Some people are more disciplined and exercise self-control regarding guns. If you blame the weapon and never the actually place the blame and responsibility of not killing on the person as if merely getting rid of the individual type of weapon, you are solving anything. If you blame the weapon and not the person, you might has well have every person lose their arms and legs.... including YOURSELF. EVERYONE means EVERYONE. Now, is this the kind of world you want to live in as the one and only method most capable of minimizes deaths by weapons and anything that can be used as a weapon. If you want to impose that, you better be the first in line to show the way by losing your arms and legs. In my opinion, I think the solution to violence and killing requires a better society of people with better discipline of emotional self-control and better upbringing and a society where households don't have to work more than 20 hours a week per parent so they can have time to be parents of their children and raise them. If both parents are working then we have to shift to 20-hour work week and good pay and means of productivity that doesn't need people to work 8 hour shifts.

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Non Sequitur

it's the gun ricky. always has been.

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RickB-Astoria

Non Sequitur, it's the cave man mentality that is in the human genomes and not everyone is as well disciplined at their own self-control. Long ago, before guns, it was the big club/stick or whatever. It is the intimidation tactics and territorialism that we primates inherently exhibit such behavior unless we use our surprisingly powerful brain to self-control our actions. The gun is just an object. The problem is the people not the object. Get rid of the objects and people will still kill but with their hands and feet. Humans have a long history of killing long before the invention of the gun.

The problem is psychological and cultural not some hunk of metal or objects. The solution to the problem is psychological and cultural based. Address the problem at its roots not on these tangents.

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RickB-Astoria

"Rick - to be fair I should have written 'every conflict is potentially lethal when you carry a firearm' You're carrying a firearm - if you get into a fight the firearm can be taken away from you and used against you. You now have to protect your firearm. If someone tries to grab it you now have a life or death situation. When you carry you simply try to avoid any conflict that could get physical. Somebody calls you a dickhead - you just ignore them - walk away. Somebody shoves you - ignore them - walk away. Somebody cuts you off - you do nothing. You continue in that line of conflict avoidance until you cannot get away. Any form of violence is the last resort. " 

I agree with you that the solution to a lot of conflicts is not with a gun. The idea of having the permit to carry a concealed weapon is so the weapon isn't being visually presented unless needed. Part of the idea is not brandishing a weapon and making an ass of yourself. You can carry a weapon and not have it be shown and if you can avoid conflict like walking away then all the better. Not letting someone else's taunting bullshit get to you. We still need to address legally these issues of people being dickheads and what not or they'll do it as if the law doesn't exist because unless it is enforced effectively, it is as good as not existing.

One problem that exacerbates the issue where people take "law into their own hands"(so to speak) is the ineffectiveness of law enforcement. We have laws that are not enforced so why have them. Court of justice doesn't reward anyone but the lawyers. We need to fix some of that.


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Non Sequitur

Ricky B: "The gun is just an object. The problem is the people not the object. Get rid of the objects and people will still kill but with their hands and feet. Humans have a long history of killing long before the invention of the gun."

Correct but the gun makes it 8 millions times easier and effortless... ditto when you have a culture so entrenched in gun right religion that they can't understand basic logic.


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RickB-Astoria

Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying law enforcement everywhere is ineffective on all issues but when it comes to enforcing all laws... they are.... DUE TO LACK OF CAPACITY.

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RickB-Astoria

N.S., I understand the concerns. The problem is there is the extreme side of anti-guns. Then how is anyone going to hunt a deer or elk for food? Why should those who are responsible with gun use be punished for the crimes of the criminals. How about punish the criminal. If someone uses ANY weapon including their own hands to kill another person (outside of legitimate self-defense) then they should be charged as criminals. You do know they don't go into prison with the guns.

You know, there was this thing called capital punishment (death penalty) or life in prison without possibility of parole. That should be mandatory sentences without appeal.

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RickB-Astoria

As you may know, I rather have the right to purchase and own guns (or any weapon) than not to have the options. Criminals will always and has always had access to guns even from the very government that is tasked with keeping guns out of the citizens (law abiding citizens). It isn't going to be good enough to take away the guns from the law abiding citizens. Such laws are only going to effect the law abiding citizens. Criminals don't give a shit about it and will get the guns through and they are in cahoots with the law enforcement.

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RickB-Astoria

As the law abiding citizen, black market / criminal methods of obtaining weapons is not an option. Using those channels then puts me into the criminal category. If I can't protect and defend my life, my family and property because I have no means to defend against some criminal with AK-47s because I won't even have the right to own even a bow and arrow because the same assholes that legislates that guns be banned will ban all these other kinds of weapons. They may start with banning guns then they will ban also bows and arrows and knives other than cardboard knives. So now there goes eating steak. Since they are also the same people who wants to ban plastics. They don't care how it effects others because they won't be effected by it. How are you suppose to cut a steak with knives. Right.... they don't eat meat because of their own psychological issue of any life being killed. They probably don't realized that they probably killed over a million lives by stepping on ants over their life time and other bugs. They have homes built which involved the death of many little insects.

Why should I be f---ed over by these assholes trying to impose their own view of utopia on everyone including me?  Why should they dictate and punish those of us who are law abiding and responsible.

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Non Sequitur

Because my view is far better and more rational than yours Ricky. That's why. Mine does not accept the inane gun religion as status quo. Ill conceived POV like yours, although unlikely to change, deserve ridicule.

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Chad Miller

Rick - I did not imply that everyone who carries a firearm uses to shoot people - quite the opposite. I said that when you carry a firearm you need to avoid all conflicts and make damn sure you NEVER get into a fight as carrying a firearm has the potential to turn any such physical altercation into a lethal one.


It is quite clear from your comments Rick that you have no experience either carrying, or using a concealed handgun - that's ok!  Owning firearms can be a touchy subject, carrying a concealed handgun even more so.  I understand that you're passionate about this but in the future please, don't be a dick.  


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RickB-Astoria

Carrying a concealed weapon is a self-defense matter but it is never a fucking license to kill other people. One, if its concealed, it isn't "broadcasting" to everyone.... "Hey, I have a fucking gun". There are many perspectives on the issue as with any social matter has 7 billion+ perspectives on the issue. First, humans are INCAPABLE as a species of not being violent. A part of the issue is genetic. An individual person maybe non-violent. Owning firearms is a touchy subject because we have a number of generations who grew up being told the world is a fucking utopia based on the sheltered upbringing and then they come into the real world and it is nothing like the G rated fantasy shows they watched growing up establishing this idealism that will NEVER happen and can NOT ever come to be without the human race ceasing to exist and replaced. This doesn't mean they are responsible for the killing. They just don't have realistic view of human potential of being good and harmless creatures. While some individuals can be good neighbors. Some people just can't. The reasons are too numerous to elaborate in a single post on this forum. Some of them, there are genetic reasons and possible birth defects and there is no fix for that. Some of them, it is because of a long train of experiences including PTSD. There is no magical medicine that fixes these. Part of the situation that effects their behavioral responses is partly genetic based such as behavioral disposition is largely defined by genetics. Some part of the human population has genetically encoded disposition towards being violent, territorial, etc. There is no fix to that without genetic manipulation which we are not at the point of being able to do that. Now regarding concealed weapons, concealed handgun is just one type of concealed weapon. There are other concealed weapons besides a gun. Carrying a gun is a matter of responsibility. Isn't shooting and killing other people murder or manslaughter? Isn't that alr