Employment is not supposed to recover to norma levels until 2013 or later. A substantial construction recovery probably won't happen after the employment recovery. We have a very long road yet, and the housing finance system hasn't even begun to get fixed yet.
On the super, super, super optimistic side, some think that there will be a pent up demand for housing, since there is virtually nothing new for 2 years now, going on 3. The markets have changed, so the same McMansion that was hot back in the peak is no longer the most desirable home.
I am seeing some places slowly start moving (at discounts, of course), but they are moving. I have clients that plan to start construction in the fall and know of several projects starting in the spring (these are old projects that have been on hold, architecture is already complete).
So we'll see, I am not counting on anything, but the one thing I can be sure of is that no one knows. Not any analyst, not any broker, not anyone. What we hear will change, as it has many times.
I think Trace is probably right. Demographics still point to housing demand, and somebody's going to house that extra million by 2035 in NYC, for instance. Some thoughts though: focus on cheap, practical, well-designed product. The next wave won't be glamour housing - there's a glut in that segment and the hsg finance system is basically non-existent for large mortgages. For New Yorkers, Hunters Point South and Coney Island are the future of housing...
Good points Urbanist. There is a glut (at least here in Denver) of 2500+ sq. ft. townhomes. Simple too expensive, too many, etc. NONE have sold in the last year or so. There is going to be more demand for smaller units, but with quality design.
I think the same will hold true for the sfr - the suburbs will become more about green/open space, smaller but high quality and efficient residences.
urbanist & trace, your assessment sounds reasonable
i fear it will be longer b/c one danger is that, the longer this drags on, the more potential for it to self-perpetuate and get worse. already a recovery was underway at the start of this year and it fizzled for a number of reasons.
while businesses are deleveraging and perhaps have already fully deleveraged, and while deleveraging of state governments is underway, the federal government has not yet begun to do so, and business and government are too intertwined for that to have no effect on the private sector
too much remains unresolved or the fixes remain poorly understood: healthcare insurance reform, financial regulatory reform, housing financial reform, deficit spending, winding down the war effort and all associated defense contracts, and ultimately cutting federal discretionary and non-discretionary spending
i'm now working at a small firm (about 18 people). i had been laid off from a very large international firm and was unemployed for almost 8 months. the work i'm doing now is not even close to the design work i had been doing. but basically now i just need a job to support my family. i'm basically willing to be at any firm, and had applied to many positions as well as sent out my resume and portfolio blindly to over 100 firms in my area/region. out of 100+ i had 6 interviews. from 6 interviews i had three offers, one job didn't actually exist, another job the employer decided not to hire, and i didn't get the last job.
i have sent out my stuff to so many places i am now getting more calls for interviews. and you know what- i'm still interviewing at other places. a lot of people have asked me why i'm still interviewing at other places since i found a job. like i'm supposed to just stop all of a sudden. because i now realize that loyalty makes no difference in this profession- if a firm is not doing well they will lay you off no matter how much they "like" you. so essentially i see my job search as never-ending. it's my career and it's up to me to find what is best for me and to continuously grow.
if anything- through all of this i've learned that even when this economy "gets better" and architecture jobs are flush again- just remember that another downturn will occur and it's up to you to figure it out and do what is best for you and your career.
oh yeah, and i have my own side business now too- as a maternity photographer. a year ago i had no idea how to do photography, and in the midst of needing extra income i figured it out and took a chance. now i love it. and when i get a large enough client base i hope to make it full time.
+i, i agree... a colleague of mine and myself have realized that this business motto rings true for most professions and pretty much all businesses (maybe)... "everyone's looking out for number 1"... quite possibly why interns get the shaft for several years...but that's a different topic for when things get better i guess?
with the realization that demand for architectural services will be and is minimal for the coming years, can we evolve? adapt? find some new niche for our problem solving skills?
- or as some others commented, is this a necessary purge in the architectural matrix?
- and can we ever get career builder to stop confusing architecture design with IT architecture jobs?
before the downturn, when i applied places, if i heard it once, i heard it a dozen times, potential employers would say, "we're not like most firms, family matters, we take care of our own, we don't hire and fire..."
now when interviewing, and when you accept the position, is there the same pretense, or do you feel like contract labor coming aboard from the start?
jmangenelli-
having worked for very small (4 person), small (20 people), medium (50+), and very large (over 2,000) firms- i have learned this: a very large firm will NEVER say that in an interview. because it's just doesn't work like that. nearly every small-mid firm i've been at has almost ALWAYS said that. sometimes it's true- mostly it isn't. at least the big firms are honest- it's a business it's not your family.
that said, i honestly feel more comfortable in a large firm. even after having been laid off from one. because there's no misunderstanding- it's business pure and simple. irregardless, even though i'm at a small firm now, i see it as business no matter what was said in the interview. and no i do not feel like contract labor. but i do have a much more jaded approach versus how i felt when i had my first job.
on the flip side, one firm i worked for previously, when they realized they had to lay off people- the owner actually helped everyone find other jobs before laying them off. that is truly rare. so sometimes they do mean it when they say you're family.
- and can we ever get career builder to stop confusing architecture design with IT architecture jobs?
that really irks me, my cousin who works at a major company doing IT stuff, asked me a while back "can't anyone call themselves Architect?"
I said well there's a lot of debate about it, even within the profession, but the legally correct answer is if you have a license to practice architecture, you are an architect, call yourself an architect of computer software it ill only hurt you if you actually practice actual architecture without a license" needless to say he was shocked that we have standards and laws to follow within the architecture community, in general it shocks me that people think we are all a bunch of free spirits with no rules to follow kind of like painters.
- or as some others commented, is this a necessary purge in the architectural matrix?
What is irking me and others is that its not so much a purging of the worst architecture people, most of the competent architects are getting laid off, while fresh bodies from academia, who cant design there way out of a closet, or answer an rfi are keeping their jobs. And on another side note, I also think that if management found you to be a potential threat to their leadership, or position in the future they fired you too.
from the ny times today - one of the reasons we're not going to pull out (as a whole) anytime soon:
Many companies are focusing on cost-cutting to keep profits growing, but the benefits are mostly going to shareholders instead of the broader economy, as management conserves cash rather than bolstering hiring and production. Harley, for example, has announced plans to cut 1,400 to 1,600 more jobs by the end of next year. That is on top of 2,000 job cuts last year — more than a fifth of its work force.
As companies this month report earnings for the second quarter, news of healthy profits has helped the stock market — the Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index is up 7 percent for July — but the source of those gains raises deep questions about the sustainability of the growth, as well as the fate of more than 14 million unemployed workers hoping to rejoin the work force as the economy recovers.
“Because of high unemployment, management is using its leverage to get more hours out of workers,” said Robert C. Pozen, a senior lecturer at Harvard Business School and the former president of Fidelity Investments. “What’s worrisome is that American business has gotten used to being a lot leaner, and it could take a while before they start hiring again.”
i'm not sure if this mentality is actually taking hold in architecture offices - what i do see in ours (as an example) is that, as we've been able to keep people busy on projects, they get better and more proficient in what it is that they're doing. so, on the one hand, we could probably take on more work, without really having to increase hours people are working, just because of that efficiency (i'd say it's 15-20% more), which would improve everyone's profitability here. on the flip side, i could see other firms really squeezing people for 50-60 hour weeks (firms that might not normally do so - forget the oma's for this discussion) and picking up extra productivity that way. the other thing to factor in is that our real fees have been cut by 20% or more, so even if we do more work, it won't necessarily translate into higher pay.
it's a tough, tough trap. if deflation really takes hold in that kind of soil, it will be a long time before 'normality' returns.
germany - great. switzerland - great. turkey - great.
france, italy, austria, most of the rest - eh.
ireland, spain, portugal, greece (the so called 'PIGS') - yeah, just keep passing through...
read around the economic data and see where the construction is being done. it's going through a dip the past few months (more of the euro flu and it's exposure to greece), but long term is really set up well.
I would add the UK and Eastern Europe (and maybe Austria due to the exposure of the crisis in Eastern Europe) to the first group. Countries like Hungary, Romania or Ukraine had crazy real estate bubbles of their own, specially when you compare the asked prices with the medium local revenue or salaries.
@Paradox86,
This first semester of 2010, Turkish economy grew faster than Chinese. It is certainly a booming market. I was in Istanbul a couple of months ago (will be there this week again :)) and there are new towers rising everywhere in business areas like Levent or Maslak.
However, not certainly on how easy is to get a job there (and no idea about work visas). I found that most of the population is absolutely uncapable of speaking English (or any other language), and I guess that business and offices are conducted mainly in Turkish (however being an architect - at least a junior - is not that bad since your language is design, let's say).
Also I talked to some Turkish friends (no architects) and they told me to forget about getting more than 1500 USD a month for a junior position (being quite optimistic). And Istanbul is quite a pricey city, nonetheless if you pretend to live a nice lifestyle.
But maybe is a good opportunity to know a new country, have difference experiences and cope with the recession. I don't think there are many Western architects thinking about getting a job there. Istanbul does not have the hype factor that, for instance, Shanghai has for Western architects, so probably less competence for you :).
Thanks Hawkin.I have dual citizenship,I was actually born in Turkey so that part is not a problem.I'll probably stay with my family and save on rent plus I'll have free health insurance too..not to mention I'll be able to take a vacation.(I haven't taken a vacation in 3 years)
I know in Turkey,especially in Istanbul there is a constant construction activity.The problem seems to be the salary.Considering I have less than 1 year of experience getting about 1000$ p/month would SUCK! Because I need to save money to get back here.Also I don't know what the firms over here would think about my work experience in Turkey.Do you think that would be a disadvantage?
Considering that most Western practices are looking madly for work in any "emerging" economy out there, having experience in any of those markets (whatever it is: Turkey, Russia, India, China, etc.) should be definitely an advantage.
Probably it would be quite useless if you later want to work in a boutique firm in North Dakota, but when looking to international corporate offices or starchitects, that will be definitely a plus.
China is investing heavily on education, soon they won't require any outside help at all, they will have their own starchitects pretty soon, thats when all the business will cease for western architects...
yes, but I can't think of the name now. They've actually promoted some decent buildings (Meier's courthouse, Mayne's courthouse, I think, and a few others you'd recognize).
trace - that's the gsa's 'design excellence' program. it actually has worked, in terms of finding and getting a much higher quality of public building work done. sadly, it's mostly confined to courthouses and border crossings. it'd be very, very easy, though, to extend out to pretty much all new federal work.
Manufacturing is picking up quickly. Employment outside of manufacturing (or even well-paid, as opposed to non-union jobs in manufacturing) isn't really recovering at all. Foreclosures are still at a record eye, and there is virtually no consumer debt market at all. This isn't even close to being over yet...
I love (no, hate, really) how some of these commentators/analysts are saying that we just need to cut taxes, as the rates are so low buy no one wants to borrow.
From what I see out there, everyone wants money, but no banks are lending (either for the commercial loans or the personal, the latter just being too unpredictable for people to rely).
We are a long way from any clear recovery. Hopefully (praying) by the time is it "clear" it'll be in hindsight (like jobs being a lagging indicator) and we can pop the champagne.
No Child Left Behind, Reading Fundamentalism, Back to Basics, etc, have gutted our schools and made regression-to-the-least-competent, rote-memorization and standardized examination the abiding doctrines. ...not to mention state boards that have reverted to partisan and basically medieval curricular standards (like those schools in Texas that adopted standards requiring schools to teach creationism instead of science).
We may recover from this recession, but unless we start to make a serious attempt to fix things fast, the future is going to be a pathetic joke.
Is this Recession $#!T over yet?!
Actually when I checked my local habitat for humanity chapter they asked for 100$ too but the materials/tools.I'm in NY.
when i inquired with the local chapter, i was asked which of several churches i belonged to
none of them, i replied
that was a problem, as it seemed they preferred to work with their own
though i was assured, on any days when they had students out from the local university, i would be welcome
one of many, 'you have got to be kidding moments' while adjusting to life in south carolina
Correction: I meant to say for not but.
Employment is not supposed to recover to norma levels until 2013 or later. A substantial construction recovery probably won't happen after the employment recovery. We have a very long road yet, and the housing finance system hasn't even begun to get fixed yet.
On the super, super, super optimistic side, some think that there will be a pent up demand for housing, since there is virtually nothing new for 2 years now, going on 3. The markets have changed, so the same McMansion that was hot back in the peak is no longer the most desirable home.
I am seeing some places slowly start moving (at discounts, of course), but they are moving. I have clients that plan to start construction in the fall and know of several projects starting in the spring (these are old projects that have been on hold, architecture is already complete).
So we'll see, I am not counting on anything, but the one thing I can be sure of is that no one knows. Not any analyst, not any broker, not anyone. What we hear will change, as it has many times.
Hope for the best, but prepare for the worst.
I think Trace is probably right. Demographics still point to housing demand, and somebody's going to house that extra million by 2035 in NYC, for instance. Some thoughts though: focus on cheap, practical, well-designed product. The next wave won't be glamour housing - there's a glut in that segment and the hsg finance system is basically non-existent for large mortgages. For New Yorkers, Hunters Point South and Coney Island are the future of housing...
Good points Urbanist. There is a glut (at least here in Denver) of 2500+ sq. ft. townhomes. Simple too expensive, too many, etc. NONE have sold in the last year or so. There is going to be more demand for smaller units, but with quality design.
I think the same will hold true for the sfr - the suburbs will become more about green/open space, smaller but high quality and efficient residences.
We'll see, but that's what I am hopeful for.
urbanist & trace, your assessment sounds reasonable
i fear it will be longer b/c one danger is that, the longer this drags on, the more potential for it to self-perpetuate and get worse. already a recovery was underway at the start of this year and it fizzled for a number of reasons.
while businesses are deleveraging and perhaps have already fully deleveraged, and while deleveraging of state governments is underway, the federal government has not yet begun to do so, and business and government are too intertwined for that to have no effect on the private sector
too much remains unresolved or the fixes remain poorly understood: healthcare insurance reform, financial regulatory reform, housing financial reform, deficit spending, winding down the war effort and all associated defense contracts, and ultimately cutting federal discretionary and non-discretionary spending
i'm now working at a small firm (about 18 people). i had been laid off from a very large international firm and was unemployed for almost 8 months. the work i'm doing now is not even close to the design work i had been doing. but basically now i just need a job to support my family. i'm basically willing to be at any firm, and had applied to many positions as well as sent out my resume and portfolio blindly to over 100 firms in my area/region. out of 100+ i had 6 interviews. from 6 interviews i had three offers, one job didn't actually exist, another job the employer decided not to hire, and i didn't get the last job.
i have sent out my stuff to so many places i am now getting more calls for interviews. and you know what- i'm still interviewing at other places. a lot of people have asked me why i'm still interviewing at other places since i found a job. like i'm supposed to just stop all of a sudden. because i now realize that loyalty makes no difference in this profession- if a firm is not doing well they will lay you off no matter how much they "like" you. so essentially i see my job search as never-ending. it's my career and it's up to me to find what is best for me and to continuously grow.
if anything- through all of this i've learned that even when this economy "gets better" and architecture jobs are flush again- just remember that another downturn will occur and it's up to you to figure it out and do what is best for you and your career.
oh yeah, and i have my own side business now too- as a maternity photographer. a year ago i had no idea how to do photography, and in the midst of needing extra income i figured it out and took a chance. now i love it. and when i get a large enough client base i hope to make it full time.
+i, i agree... a colleague of mine and myself have realized that this business motto rings true for most professions and pretty much all businesses (maybe)... "everyone's looking out for number 1"... quite possibly why interns get the shaft for several years...but that's a different topic for when things get better i guess?
with the realization that demand for architectural services will be and is minimal for the coming years, can we evolve? adapt? find some new niche for our problem solving skills?
- or as some others commented, is this a necessary purge in the architectural matrix?
- and can we ever get career builder to stop confusing architecture design with IT architecture jobs?
+i, i'm curious
before the downturn, when i applied places, if i heard it once, i heard it a dozen times, potential employers would say, "we're not like most firms, family matters, we take care of our own, we don't hire and fire..."
now when interviewing, and when you accept the position, is there the same pretense, or do you feel like contract labor coming aboard from the start?
jmangenelli-
having worked for very small (4 person), small (20 people), medium (50+), and very large (over 2,000) firms- i have learned this: a very large firm will NEVER say that in an interview. because it's just doesn't work like that. nearly every small-mid firm i've been at has almost ALWAYS said that. sometimes it's true- mostly it isn't. at least the big firms are honest- it's a business it's not your family.
that said, i honestly feel more comfortable in a large firm. even after having been laid off from one. because there's no misunderstanding- it's business pure and simple. irregardless, even though i'm at a small firm now, i see it as business no matter what was said in the interview. and no i do not feel like contract labor. but i do have a much more jaded approach versus how i felt when i had my first job.
on the flip side, one firm i worked for previously, when they realized they had to lay off people- the owner actually helped everyone find other jobs before laying them off. that is truly rare. so sometimes they do mean it when they say you're family.
- and can we ever get career builder to stop confusing architecture design with IT architecture jobs?
that really irks me, my cousin who works at a major company doing IT stuff, asked me a while back "can't anyone call themselves Architect?"
I said well there's a lot of debate about it, even within the profession, but the legally correct answer is if you have a license to practice architecture, you are an architect, call yourself an architect of computer software it ill only hurt you if you actually practice actual architecture without a license" needless to say he was shocked that we have standards and laws to follow within the architecture community, in general it shocks me that people think we are all a bunch of free spirits with no rules to follow kind of like painters.
- or as some others commented, is this a necessary purge in the architectural matrix?
What is irking me and others is that its not so much a purging of the worst architecture people, most of the competent architects are getting laid off, while fresh bodies from academia, who cant design there way out of a closet, or answer an rfi are keeping their jobs. And on another side note, I also think that if management found you to be a potential threat to their leadership, or position in the future they fired you too.
from the ny times today - one of the reasons we're not going to pull out (as a whole) anytime soon:
Many companies are focusing on cost-cutting to keep profits growing, but the benefits are mostly going to shareholders instead of the broader economy, as management conserves cash rather than bolstering hiring and production. Harley, for example, has announced plans to cut 1,400 to 1,600 more jobs by the end of next year. That is on top of 2,000 job cuts last year — more than a fifth of its work force.
As companies this month report earnings for the second quarter, news of healthy profits has helped the stock market — the Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index is up 7 percent for July — but the source of those gains raises deep questions about the sustainability of the growth, as well as the fate of more than 14 million unemployed workers hoping to rejoin the work force as the economy recovers.
“Because of high unemployment, management is using its leverage to get more hours out of workers,” said Robert C. Pozen, a senior lecturer at Harvard Business School and the former president of Fidelity Investments. “What’s worrisome is that American business has gotten used to being a lot leaner, and it could take a while before they start hiring again.”
i'm not sure if this mentality is actually taking hold in architecture offices - what i do see in ours (as an example) is that, as we've been able to keep people busy on projects, they get better and more proficient in what it is that they're doing. so, on the one hand, we could probably take on more work, without really having to increase hours people are working, just because of that efficiency (i'd say it's 15-20% more), which would improve everyone's profitability here. on the flip side, i could see other firms really squeezing people for 50-60 hour weeks (firms that might not normally do so - forget the oma's for this discussion) and picking up extra productivity that way. the other thing to factor in is that our real fees have been cut by 20% or more, so even if we do more work, it won't necessarily translate into higher pay.
it's a tough, tough trap. if deflation really takes hold in that kind of soil, it will be a long time before 'normality' returns.
curious how europe is doing.... the u.s.a. is screwed right now... i'm hoping to move to europe in a year
germany - great. switzerland - great. turkey - great.
france, italy, austria, most of the rest - eh.
ireland, spain, portugal, greece (the so called 'PIGS') - yeah, just keep passing through...
Outed,how do you know Turkey is doing great? Because I'm seriously considering moving there for some time.
read around the economic data and see where the construction is being done. it's going through a dip the past few months (more of the euro flu and it's exposure to greece), but long term is really set up well.
@outed,
I would add the UK and Eastern Europe (and maybe Austria due to the exposure of the crisis in Eastern Europe) to the first group. Countries like Hungary, Romania or Ukraine had crazy real estate bubbles of their own, specially when you compare the asked prices with the medium local revenue or salaries.
@Paradox86,
This first semester of 2010, Turkish economy grew faster than Chinese. It is certainly a booming market. I was in Istanbul a couple of months ago (will be there this week again :)) and there are new towers rising everywhere in business areas like Levent or Maslak.
However, not certainly on how easy is to get a job there (and no idea about work visas). I found that most of the population is absolutely uncapable of speaking English (or any other language), and I guess that business and offices are conducted mainly in Turkish (however being an architect - at least a junior - is not that bad since your language is design, let's say).
Also I talked to some Turkish friends (no architects) and they told me to forget about getting more than 1500 USD a month for a junior position (being quite optimistic). And Istanbul is quite a pricey city, nonetheless if you pretend to live a nice lifestyle.
But maybe is a good opportunity to know a new country, have difference experiences and cope with the recession. I don't think there are many Western architects thinking about getting a job there. Istanbul does not have the hype factor that, for instance, Shanghai has for Western architects, so probably less competence for you :).
Thanks Hawkin.I have dual citizenship,I was actually born in Turkey so that part is not a problem.I'll probably stay with my family and save on rent plus I'll have free health insurance too..not to mention I'll be able to take a vacation.(I haven't taken a vacation in 3 years)
I know in Turkey,especially in Istanbul there is a constant construction activity.The problem seems to be the salary.Considering I have less than 1 year of experience getting about 1000$ p/month would SUCK! Because I need to save money to get back here.Also I don't know what the firms over here would think about my work experience in Turkey.Do you think that would be a disadvantage?
the firms in turkey are just as competent as anywhere else.
http://archinect.com/features/article.php?id=77781_0_23_0_C
No I was worried about the "local" experience thing.Even the experience on Long Island vs. NYC differs in terms of codes,building methods etc.
Considering that most Western practices are looking madly for work in any "emerging" economy out there, having experience in any of those markets (whatever it is: Turkey, Russia, India, China, etc.) should be definitely an advantage.
Probably it would be quite useless if you later want to work in a boutique firm in North Dakota, but when looking to international corporate offices or starchitects, that will be definitely a plus.
China is investing heavily on education, soon they won't require any outside help at all, they will have their own starchitects pretty soon, thats when all the business will cease for western architects...
They (Chinese) do some pretty impressive work... anyone know of government programs in the US that promote quality architecture?
yes, but I can't think of the name now. They've actually promoted some decent buildings (Meier's courthouse, Mayne's courthouse, I think, and a few others you'd recognize).
trace - that's the gsa's 'design excellence' program. it actually has worked, in terms of finding and getting a much higher quality of public building work done. sadly, it's mostly confined to courthouses and border crossings. it'd be very, very easy, though, to extend out to pretty much all new federal work.
Thanks, that's it!
It would be great if they extended it. "Architecture" is meaningless, imho, unless it is "good" design (we have enough crap buildings, thank you).
Amazing that it has worked, really.
Manufacturing is picking up quickly. Employment outside of manufacturing (or even well-paid, as opposed to non-union jobs in manufacturing) isn't really recovering at all. Foreclosures are still at a record eye, and there is virtually no consumer debt market at all. This isn't even close to being over yet...
I love (no, hate, really) how some of these commentators/analysts are saying that we just need to cut taxes, as the rates are so low buy no one wants to borrow.
From what I see out there, everyone wants money, but no banks are lending (either for the commercial loans or the personal, the latter just being too unpredictable for people to rely).
We are a long way from any clear recovery. Hopefully (praying) by the time is it "clear" it'll be in hindsight (like jobs being a lagging indicator) and we can pop the champagne.
I think a big problem is that the American education system is fast becoming a global disgrace.
http://www.newsweek.com/2010/07/10/the-creativity-crisis.html
No Child Left Behind, Reading Fundamentalism, Back to Basics, etc, have gutted our schools and made regression-to-the-least-competent, rote-memorization and standardized examination the abiding doctrines. ...not to mention state boards that have reverted to partisan and basically medieval curricular standards (like those schools in Texas that adopted standards requiring schools to teach creationism instead of science).
We may recover from this recession, but unless we start to make a serious attempt to fix things fast, the future is going to be a pathetic joke.
Todays NY Times....
"U.S. Economic Growth Slowed to 2.4% Rate in 2nd Quarter
Some forecasters have predicted even slower growth in the second half of the year, perhaps close to an annual rate of 1.5 percent."
Im gonna say its not close to over....
Urbanist, I agree 100%. It's freaking scary, honestly, how far behind America is falling/is already.
Nice article urbanist. I gave it a read and thoroughly enjoyed it :)
Umm I read someone saying about 5k USD a month for an architect in Singapore?
I find it quite optimistic for a junior position. Most likely 5k SGD and even so (5k SGD is around 3.5k USD a month).
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