For the passed 6 months, the firm I work at has slowly, now rapidly, been losing projects to clients terminating the contract, pulling out altogether or putting their project on pause. Is this happening everywhere or is it just us? I haven't really heard about any other firms being slow at the moment. Wondering if the tech recession finally hit us or if the firm I work at specifically, is poorly mismanaging our clients and projects. There is definitely a lot of that happening for sure.
Developer driven work is slow at the moment. Rise in borrowing rates plus lower demand for commercial space have put a big damper on the pace of development.
You are not alone! I think a ton of firms are slowing down as Axon noted a very real problem right now. Civic work, academic, healthcare, etc. are fairing alright it seems but developer work is really stifled.
It definitely seems developer-driven projects are the ones slowing right now, particularly commercial and some residential (ie, towers). On the flipside it genuinely feels like other markets that typically have a more volatile up/down cycle are currently going gangbusters. For us, at this point we seem to be somewhat relieved when a project goes on hold - usually it comes back in some form, and we are struggling to staff everything at the moment. More wins moving back into the pipeline can be a good thing...
Atlanta/Southeast, some big names including firms traditionally in the commercial market have already gone through rounds of layoffs, though the rounds have not been large hair cuts, more like trimming.
Our regional firm location is in that tough mid-range size, large enough to handle a whale project in each sector, dreams to grow to handle multiple. We had a crazy pipeline and some tough-to-swallow losses in the beginning of the year. We are not a boom/bust-hire/fire place. I could tell regional leadership have been stressing for a minute but our healthcare dept now has 2 large hospitals, one local and one we're heavily assisting on out of a different office and our higher-ed dept landed some whale work and other fish.
TL:DR commercial got internally cannibalized and is running on skeleton crew while assisting other depts, but big picture we're likely back to hiring and good through EoY 2024.
Still, there's clearly been a shift and the firms that lose RFPs etc will definitely be making some decisions through December.
Actually seen a pickup in headhunting over the last 2 months. It was break-neck all-is-fair crazy for a while there, then slowed down, but now it's back. The difference is the calls now are all "we're looking for a strong PM/PA/do it all -must be able to do production-" (sub $100k) or even "here's a great PA opportunity" ($70-90k)
It's not like I changed up my linkedin or magically lost experience so I definitely feel like the highest ups made their wins and shifted their management (directors and Sr. PMs) beginning of year/last year and are now trying to infill teams that need help.
I know Gensler in Atlanta has done a couple rounds of layoffs (after interviewing people who were cut). Same with a multi-family firm here. Commercial work is definitely slowed down - a major developer that had amassed 53 buildings downtown and was building out the largest for retail/office has stopped that project, canceled two ground up projects, and just sold the whole portfolio at a loss. Microsoft's much touted east coast campus here went on hold at the beginning of the year and doesn't look to start up again anytime soon.
Anything speculative, basically, seems to be dead at the moment. There's some re-positioning projects and if you're building to suit - say a Hyundai or Rivian and building out specific billion dollar plants for yourself - that's going well.
Governmental projects are mixed - if you have funding, you're doing them. GA as a whole is still running some crazy surpluses so that pipeline may stay steady.
Private civic work (churches, foundations, arts, etc) are solely dependent on who the client is - we've had churches go on hold, some go forward, some arts projects get radically modified scope wise, etc.
Borrowing terms and rates are definitely huge factors in the decision making here.
Anything new that requires financing is struggling to happen or on hold here in Los Angeles whether profit or non profit. I know a lot of people in wait and see mode on the client side.
Aug 12, 23 2:07 am ·
·
bowling_ball
I was in LA a few months ago and saw a total of 2 small cranes. I know it's a big city but I was in Toronto in the same period and stopped counting at 30. Downtown alone. I'm still very confused why I didn't see more cranes in LA
Aug 14, 23 7:28 pm ·
·
greenlander1
@bowling_ball not sure could be TOR jumping on the dev cycle later than LA or maybe construction costs arent as bad as LA.
We're not slowing down yet. Our biggest issue that we have a few projects where the various user groups are taking forever to set up meetings and as such the projects can't move forward. This causes potential staffing issues once a decision is made . . .
Seeing similar things. I fear there are too many clients thinking there'll be architects/engineers sitting around waiting for them to hit the go button, not realizing that offices can't just hold onto staff like that.
In Los Angeles, our office has slowed significantly. The interest rates are affecting the developers. Also look at the AIA job ads for LA and the OC. Their is barely any ads compared to last year. I think it will be like this until the Fed eases up on the rates.
Based in SoCal but firm works nationwide and internationally focused mostly on advance manufacturing and food/beverage projects.
Chip manufacturing, solar/battery manufacturing and essential medical products are booming. Data centers won't stop while doom scrolling is alive and well. Overall a great spot to be in for the next few years.
Food and beverage projects and associated corporate infrastructure has slowed from their breakneck speed the last three years but remain steady. Less focus on greenfield developments and more on renovations which can be messy but good fees. Beer, wine and spirits are below their peak but seeing plenty of good opportunities come up. White claw saturation has finally peaked with more focus going back to traditional ways to get f'd up.
Pharma has taken a hit substantial as the covid spending boom has subsided.
Startup money for alt-protein has dried up after a few really good years.
Get out of residential and commercial, dark clouds ahead.
No. I have three projects starting this month and possibly a 4th. Recruiters contact me a few times a month and it seems all the local firms are looking for staff.
been told by two engineer consultants that gensler atlanta had another layoff round today. some multifamily firms are laying off as well. from both, the culprit is projects going on hold because of financing and/or timing in our local market (which doesn't sound too far off the national trends).
Ain't no slow down over here. I have to design 7 buildings next week and then work on a luxury-resort competition with 40ish houses... all while not skimping on my current projects.
I'm working on a couple of fire stations, a historic renovation of a courthouse, a master plan for a mixed use center that used to be an 'indian school', and a master plan for a housing development. Also elk hunting starts next weekend so . . .
Come to the midwest. We can't find enough good help. We've got projected work out at least 18-24 months. Now, of course, that could all change. I am old enough to remember 2008.
i agree on help and i think the firms doing more institution driven work are generally in better shape. this seems to be concentrated (for the moment at least) in a couple of sectors
Anyone elses's firm experiencing a downturn?
Developer driven work is slow at the moment. Rise in borrowing rates plus lower demand for commercial space have put a big damper on the pace of development.
You are not alone! I think a ton of firms are slowing down as Axon noted a very real problem right now. Civic work, academic, healthcare, etc. are fairing alright it seems but developer work is really stifled.
It definitely seems developer-driven projects are the ones slowing right now, particularly commercial and some residential (ie, towers). On the flipside it genuinely feels like other markets that typically have a more volatile up/down cycle are currently going gangbusters. For us, at this point we seem to be somewhat relieved when a project goes on hold - usually it comes back in some form, and we are struggling to staff everything at the moment. More wins moving back into the pipeline can be a good thing...
Atlanta/Southeast, some big names including firms traditionally in the commercial market have already gone through rounds of layoffs, though the rounds have not been large hair cuts, more like trimming.
Our regional firm location is in that tough mid-range size, large enough to handle a whale project in each sector, dreams to grow to handle multiple. We had a crazy pipeline and some tough-to-swallow losses in the beginning of the year. We are not a boom/bust-hire/fire place. I could tell regional leadership have been stressing for a minute but our healthcare dept now has 2 large hospitals, one local and one we're heavily assisting on out of a different office and our higher-ed dept landed some whale work and other fish.
TL:DR commercial got internally cannibalized and is running on skeleton crew while assisting other depts, but big picture we're likely back to hiring and good through EoY 2024.
Still, there's clearly been a shift and the firms that lose RFPs etc will definitely be making some decisions through December.
Actually seen a pickup in headhunting over the last 2 months. It was break-neck all-is-fair crazy for a while there, then slowed down, but now it's back. The difference is the calls now are all "we're looking for a strong PM/PA/do it all -must be able to do production-" (sub $100k) or even "here's a great PA opportunity" ($70-90k)
It's not like I changed up my linkedin or magically lost experience so I definitely feel like the highest ups made their wins and shifted their management (directors and Sr. PMs) beginning of year/last year and are now trying to infill teams that need help.
I know Gensler in Atlanta has done a couple rounds of layoffs (after interviewing people who were cut). Same with a multi-family firm here. Commercial work is definitely slowed down - a major developer that had amassed 53 buildings downtown and was building out the largest for retail/office has stopped that project, canceled two ground up projects, and just sold the whole portfolio at a loss. Microsoft's much touted east coast campus here went on hold at the beginning of the year and doesn't look to start up again anytime soon.
Anything speculative, basically, seems to be dead at the moment. There's some re-positioning projects and if you're building to suit - say a Hyundai or Rivian and building out specific billion dollar plants for yourself - that's going well.
Governmental projects are mixed - if you have funding, you're doing them. GA as a whole is still running some crazy surpluses so that pipeline may stay steady.
Private civic work (churches, foundations, arts, etc) are solely dependent on who the client is - we've had churches go on hold, some go forward, some arts projects get radically modified scope wise, etc.
Borrowing terms and rates are definitely huge factors in the decision making here.
We've been able to hold steady on staffing.
Anything new that requires financing is struggling to happen or on hold here in Los Angeles whether profit or non profit. I know a lot of people in wait and see mode on the client side.
I was in LA a few months ago and saw a total of 2 small cranes. I know it's a big city but I was in Toronto in the same period and stopped counting at 30. Downtown alone. I'm still very confused why I didn't see more cranes in LA
@bowling_ball not sure could be TOR jumping on the dev cycle later than LA or maybe construction costs arent as bad as LA.
We're not slowing down yet. Our biggest issue that we have a few projects where the various user groups are taking forever to set up meetings and as such the projects can't move forward. This causes potential staffing issues once a decision is made . . .
Seeing similar things. I fear there are too many clients thinking there'll be architects/engineers sitting around waiting for them to hit the go button, not realizing that offices can't just hold onto staff like that.
oh I know those, that's going on hold without them telling you, lol
In Los Angeles, our office has slowed significantly. The interest rates are affecting the developers. Also look at the AIA job ads for LA and the OC. Their is barely any ads compared to last year. I think it will be like this until the Fed eases up on the rates.
Based in SoCal but firm works nationwide and internationally focused mostly on advance manufacturing and food/beverage projects.
Chip manufacturing, solar/battery manufacturing and essential medical products are booming. Data centers won't stop while doom scrolling is alive and well. Overall a great spot to be in for the next few years.
Food and beverage projects and associated corporate infrastructure has slowed from their breakneck speed the last three years but remain steady. Less focus on greenfield developments and more on renovations which can be messy but good fees. Beer, wine and spirits are below their peak but seeing plenty of good opportunities come up. White claw saturation has finally peaked with more focus going back to traditional ways to get f'd up.
Pharma has taken a hit substantial as the covid spending boom has subsided.
Startup money for alt-protein has dried up after a few really good years.
Get out of residential and commercial, dark clouds ahead.
No. I have three projects starting this month and possibly a 4th. Recruiters contact me a few times a month and it seems all the local firms are looking for staff.
been told by two engineer consultants that gensler atlanta had another layoff round today. some multifamily firms are laying off as well. from both, the culprit is projects going on hold because of financing and/or timing in our local market (which doesn't sound too far off the national trends).
so many layoffs maybe another one soon
Probably because AI can do a better job. J/K
Ain't no slow down over here. I have to design 7 buildings next week and then work on a luxury-resort competition with 40ish houses... all while not skimping on my current projects.
I'm working on a couple of fire stations, a historic renovation of a courthouse, a master plan for a mixed use center that used to be an 'indian school', and a master plan for a housing development. Also elk hunting starts next weekend so . . .
I'll take some elk. Ground and sausages, preferably.
mmm sausage and maple syrup
If I get one I'll send you some! Seriously. ::Fingers and toes crossed I see some::
Come to the midwest. We can't find enough good help. We've got projected work out at least 18-24 months. Now, of course, that could all change. I am old enough to remember 2008.
i agree on help and i think the firms doing more institution driven work are generally in better shape. this seems to be concentrated (for the moment at least) in a couple of sectors
It seems like it's a lot of middle to senior range positions - not as many entry level stuff according to my daily LinkedIn observations.
It's mid-senior. I'm still getting a lot of recruiter calls even though I went out on my own.
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