California's bullet-train agency will officially start construction in Fresno this week on the first 29-mile segment of the system, a symbol of the significant progress the $68-billion project has made against persistent political and legal opposition. [...]
But the milestone marked by Tuesday's groundbreaking ceremony also will serve as a reminder of the enormous financial, technical and political risks still faced by the Los Angeles-to-San Francisco project.
— latimes.com
6 Comments
I only hope they source their HSR technology from the Japanese, they can't be beat when it comes to the speed comfort AND safety. Timeliness is another matter altogether, and one that is lost on most Americans...
We should probably forget other, better models. The system has become quite watered down since its inception. Long stretches at both the San Fran and LA ends will occur on conventional (slow-mo) rail, requiring train two train changes and lengthening the trip.
$195 million per mile. $36,930 per lineal foot. $3,078 per lineal inch.
Before cost overruns.
Miles, you're doing the math "as the crow flies."
According to the 2012 CHSRA Fact Sheet, the project will end up being roughly 520 miles of rail from SF to LA (and eventually a total of 800 miles to reach Sacramento and San Diego). That's $131 million per mile / $24,750 per lineal foot / $2,064 per lineal inch.
Also of note, The World Bank actually states that the cost will be $90 million per mile ($56 million per km), which is another significant discrepancy ($17,045 / foot, $1,420 / inch).
I'm not pointing this out to disagree with you, but to make sure the information we discuss is factual. Although I doubt this revised info sways your opinion of the project in the least. =)
sources:
http://www.hsr.ca.gov/docs/about/business_plans/BPlan_2012Fact_Sheet.pdf
http://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2014/07/10/cost-of-high-speed-rail-in-china-one-third-lower-than-in-other-countries
I'm all for public transit, just wanted to put the numbers in perspective. It would be very interesting to see a ridership and fare projections compared to existing transportation services. For example, passenger air traffic is approximately 3m/yr at a fares as low as $90.
In other words, let's see the economics spelled out so that we can be reasonably sure this isn't just another corporate-political giveaway at taxpayer expense.
Actually, I think some of the info you're looking for is included in that 2012 fact sheet.
"Projections are based on average HSR fares that are 83 percent of assumed San Francisco-Los Angeles one-way airfare of $97. High ridership scenarios assume a fuel price of $6.11 in 2030, with low scenarios assuming a fuel price of $2.60 in 2030. No operating subsidy will be required under any scenario."
Using the above data, and 2022 as one of their examples, they claim the break even point is 2.3 million riders. And this is with them considering the low ridership figure to be 2.9 million and the high ridership to be 5.0 million. These are, of course, their projections and numbers...
That being said, I agree with your cynicism. I'm trying to be cautiously optimistic.
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