...As a practical matter, limiting global warming to no more than 2C seemed like the most ambitious target that could possibly be achieved, since it would require virtually ending fossil fuel emissions within 30 to 40 years... Yet even as the 2C target has become a touchstone for the climate talks, scientific theory and real-world observations have begun to raise serious questions about whether the target is stringent enough." — NY Times
As is documented in the article, the recent climate talks in Lima ended with an agreement to try to limit the long-term warming of the planet to below 2 degree celsius above the global average temperature at the start of the Industrial Revolution. This limit has been central to talks aimed at mitigating global warming, but, as the author notes, may not be enough. Already, the disastrous and damaging effects of global warming are felt worldwide. Moreover, scientists are realizing they had underestimated the potential rapidity of sea level rise from the melting glaciers of Greenland and Antarctica.
To put this in perspective, in order to remain below the 2 degree threshold, the building sector alone must steadily transition to carbon neutrality by 2030, a radical change in the way architecture and construction currently operate. According to the project Architecture 2030, whose name alone shows the centrality of the 2 degree limit, this could feasibly be accomplished if:
While that might not seem like a lot at first, it amounts to very significant change. While these goals remain in the realm of possibility, they require immediate and intense policy creation and enforcement. Considering the current global political struggles to even agree to this threshold, it's increasingly becoming a slimmer and slimmer hope. And if the 2 degree limit ends up not being enough, the necessary changes to the building sector will have to be even more drastic – maybe even amounting to a caesura of current construction practices – in order to avoid catastrophe.
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Stringent enough? LoL. Even close to possible is more like it.
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