Thanks for the input. Sorry about the house situation - it's really sucking for a lot of folks right now, I figured. Sounds like your experiences echo the theme of "low business sentiments but no material decline in activities." Let's hope it's a soft landing for everyone...

that's what i'm talking bout bro.

in all seriousness good luck to everyone, finished my m.arch in '12 and hibernated another year in a full ride fellowship for the sweet health insurance benefits getting a m.sci.

so i guess the take away is ride out the storm in grad school

Thanks Alex but we'll be fine (laughs in Canadian). There is far more work in the area than there are available arch offices too.  Waiting on a competition result at end of summer than will keep us fed for 10+y too.

We've slowed down a bit here. That's due to a certain mountain town being dumb and temporarily shelving a project. If we get any of the six projects we've proposed on we're going to need more team members.

Solid points, but the six months savings... that's something like $30,000 for folks just out of college. Even without student loans that has to be pretty difficult for a lot of people.

Chad, when you say cash, do you mean cash-cash? I have 6 months savings in a bank account but the interest rate is so low that maybe just keeping actual cash in a safe is better?

Baboo, it is hard when you're starting from zero. I was well into my 30s and had paid off my student loans before I had worked up to 6 months of savings.

Well, when you are fresh out of college, you most likely won't have much of anything in terms of savings... maybe a week's worth but you build it be budgeting your expenses so you spend less than you earn. Over time, you build that up. It will take a little while to build up 6 months of money that is saved or set aside... call it a rainy day fund. It can be in a savings account or in a safe or wherever you feel safe with it that it will be there and that someone doesn't steal it. Investments are another matter independent of cash reserves. Think from an accounting point of view versus the specifics of where the money is stored exactly. That's up to you but you have to be able to 'inventory' what money you have or don't have. Chad's advice is solid and sound but intended for those who are already established professionals not so much for someone who just beginning. The only way to build any savings is to not spend all you make or outspend what you earn and build a mountain of debt that will come at you with interest because interests on debts almost always are at a higher rate than the interest you get from any kind of savings account, CDs, etc. Considering recessions that effects this profession, they occur roughly on or around a ~7 years to ~15 year cycle in the boom/bust rhythm. During the period between one recession and another, you should be able to build up some cash reserves if you are employed for 75% or more of that time frame. If you are employed for less than that, your cash reserve would probably be less.

Could be. I'm less worried about inflation and more worried about a global recession due to Russia and the greedy oil companies.

Yes, but some Democrats are also pressuring these oil companies not to produce more oil for the environmental concerns.. they want you to buy more electric cars (as if this is affordable for everyone).. yet, Biden approves more ethanol in gas... it's already a mass in this country..

They can ask - the oil companies aren't listening. Just like when others ask the oil combines to produce more oil. The oil companies response - no we're making too much money.

Phlease stop. Inflation began before Russia invaded Ukraine. Turn off the cnn spin machine dude.

While that is true to a general point in that inflation has been going on since the 1960s other than the very small inflation rate before that when we were on the gold standard. Now, when we also adopted minimum wage laws and also have all these workers' strikes and all that has contributed to inflation because if people get a 10% increase in pay, the cost of the associated goods or services is increased at least by 10% if not more. There are various factors that contribute to inflation and so have this Russia/Ukraine and OPEC have been contributing to inflation and may be key factors in the current moment involving an increase in oil prices. However, the oil price increase has a pervasive domino effect on absolutely every industry/occupation. So x-jla, we have to be attentive to larger picture of inflation but also the current events that are impacting. Before this Russia/Ukraine issue, we had the global pandemic which was the driving force of increase pricing of stuff before hand but now we have this Russia/Ukraine issue.

Yeah - I don’t see it either. So many firms right now are so grossly understaffed that I think a lot of people are wishing for a slowdown so they can get a bit of a break. There’s still a major housing shortage in the US, there’s still a lot of demand in some other project types.

Bottom falling out sounds unlikely, but I feel like non-residential stuff might see very little demand for some time to come. Lot of overbuilding (esp. industrial) during the pandemic, and apartments might cool down if the insane rent growth stops or slows. On the other hand, lots of talk about converting urban offices to condos / apartments recently...

Yep, and not all recessions are deep. Some are less noticeable. They aren't all going to be like the recession of 2008. In fact, the pandemic may have been the recession about a decade after the 2008 one s and we are just climbing out of. Recessions serve a purpose in economics much like inhaling and exhaling. It's the economic balancing out economic bubbles. The next recession may be 5 or so years out. It is all a guessing game. If you predict every day it will be the day the recession hits, you will be right eventually. It's not what I would really call prediction.

How affordable are off grid homes though WG?

Not very, which is why I think it's a growth market--serving our money-holding overlords. I'm also working on developing pre-designed plans (following Pretty Good House principles) that would better serve the lower-budget clientele that I have been trying to help for the last several years with full custom design.

That's pretty bleak man...

If society breaks down, which is possible, Those communities will probably need guns. Just sayin.

Good thing I have a decent stockpile of them. They may be antiques but they still work.

Ya'll watch too many movies. WG, you need turrets!

I have a large barn behind my house that I want to fit out as office space and maybe a guest room on the second and third floors. It would make a good lookout point. I'm on top of a hill 200' above the surrounding area and would have a good view from up there. But my wife wants a new kitchen and bathroom in the house first...

Wood guy, they are probably more reliable then the cheap plastic junk they sell now.

Lmfao. That made me spat out my coffee. Typical- Wife wants a kitchen, husband wants an apocalypse look out station.

WG, can you compromise and relocate the kitchen into your (apparently 3-storey!) future doomsday bunker?

I'd also like a new kitchen and bathroom; I actually do a majority of the cooking, but yeah that does sound typical. I'll be blogging about the kitchen addition on Green Building Advisor as I have some low-carbon, low-cost, high-performance details I want to share.

Non, we've actually thought a lot about putting a commercial kitchen in the barn, for my wife's side business making herbal skin care products, and various other ideas. But getting water and septic there is a challenge because we're on solid bedrock. I can't attach an image here but the barn was built in 1830. It's about 40' x 60' with 17' eaves, so more like 2.5 stories. This isn't the best photo and it's several years old but it's the easiest to link to: http://www.ridgepond.com/.

A recession is almost a guarantee at this point. Unlike 2008, this will be coupled with inflation. I’m already seeing hesitation from clients.

That might be because they don't like working with you x-jla.

3%? we renegotiated in the depths of 2020 summer at 2.2. hehe

Chad, they all love me believe it or not.

Chad, they all love me believe it or not.

I even got invited to a wedding. Yay

There is always a guarantee that another recession will occur. Economies operates on boom / bust cycles with relatively few exceptions but in general, other than the medical health care industry, all economies operates from boom/bust rhythm pattern. Every economic bubble grows and pops and grows again and pops. This is all part of the cycle of investing and collecting on the investment and that overall loop. PS: Every recession happens with inflation. There isn't a year that goes by where there isn't inflation. Every time anything goes up in price including wages and salaries, inflation is happening. People think they are reacting by having a wage increase but the reality is also that they are feeding into inflation and the increase in price which is basically the whole phenomenon of inflation is.

No