As the architecture community anticipates the official Pritzker Prize announcement this Tuesday, our team at Archinect has been fully immersed in the whirlwind of predictions and speculations. A few days ago we published a roundup of forecasts from the Archinect community, highlighting potential winners such as Moshe Safdie, Barclay Crousse, Eyal Weizman/Forensic Architecture, Thomas Heatherwick, H arquitectes, and Johnston Marklee, to name just a few. This curiosity led to an idea for a fun experiment: consult with various Artificial Intelligence models to gauge their insights on the prestigious award's 2024 recipient. Initiating conversations with four leading LLM models—ChatGPT 4, Google Gemini, Anthropic's Claude 2, and Perplexity—I navigated the sometimes hilariously clumsy, but mostly very interesting "thoughts" from our AI frenemies. Each of the models ended up predicting different winners, but there's a common theme with all of the selections that you'll notice.
I conducted the same conversation with each model; first asking it to provide a general overview of the prize, and asking it to list the winner for each year since the prize was started. Each LLM provided an accurate response. Claude 2, however, incorrectly listed Manuel Herz as the recipient in 2023. After insisting I was wrong multiple times, denying that David Chipperfield won in 2023, it finally conceded when I pointed it to a press release on the Pritzker website. A text-transformed apology ensued.
I continued by pressing the LLM's to try to find any trends or similarities among the winners, especially the winners in the last 10 years. I then asked them to use this analysis to predict the 20 most likely architects/practices to take the award in 2024. ChatGPT 4 struggled to provide a list without including architects that have previously won. Gemini defiantly provided a list of only 5 predictions, refusing to put in the overtime.
I finally asked to make a prediction for this year's winner, paying close attention to the types of architects selected in the last decade. ChatGPT 4 initially chose David Adjaye. After explaining that this may be unlikely since Adjaye has been involved in a highly publicized scandal since ChatGPT 4's last data training date, I was given an alternative prediction. Each of the 4 LLM's ended up predicting believable winners, providing measured rationale for each of their selections. Most interestingly, each of the predictions is female.
20 most-likely 2024 Pritzker Prize recipients:
Top choice: Jeanne Gang
Given the evolving nature of architecture and the Pritzker Prize's focus on not only architectural excellence but also the broader impact on society, environment, and culture, and taking into account recent trends without considering individuals who might be currently involved in controversies, Jeanne Gang stands out as a strong candidate for future recognition.
Jeanne Gang, the founder of Studio Gang, is renowned for her innovative approach to design that incorporates both environmental sustainability and social responsiveness. Her work ranges from cultural and community projects to high-rise buildings that redefine the skyline. Gang's approach to architecture emphasizes materiality, technology, and the natural environment, creating spaces that are deeply connected to their contexts and communities.
One of her most notable projects, the Aqua Tower in Chicago, showcases her ability to blend architectural form with ecological sensitivity, using a unique balcony design to minimize wind impact and provide solar shading. Beyond her architectural practice, Gang is committed to research and projects that address pressing urban issues, such as climate change and community engagement. Her work on Polis Station proposes a new approach to police station design to help rebuild trust between law enforcement and the communities they serve.
Jeanne Gang’s dedication to pushing the boundaries of architecture, combined with her focus on creating positive social and environmental impacts, aligns with the values and trends observed in recent Pritzker Prize winners. Her unique blend of innovative design, sustainability, and community focus makes her a compelling candidate for the Pritzker Prize in the near future.
20 most-likely 2024 Pritzker Prize recipients:
(Gemini only responded with 5 predictions)
Top choice: Tatiana Bilbao
I would consider Tatiana Bilbao (Mexico) as a strong contender for the following reasons:
Focus on social impact: Similar to Alejandro Aravena (2016) and Diébédo Francis Kéré (2022), Bilbao prioritizes architecture that addresses social issues and empowers communities. Her projects often involve local participation and aim to improve the lives of residents in underprivileged areas.
Sustainability: Like Anne Lacaton & Jean-Philippe Vassal (2021), Bilbao's architecture emphasizes environmental responsibility. She frequently utilizes local materials, passive design techniques, and strives for minimal environmental impact.
Unique approach: Similar to Yvonne Farrell & Shelley McNamara (2020), Bilbao offers a distinctive and regionally-specific perspective. Her architecture reflects the cultural context and responds to the specific needs and challenges of her communities.
20 most-likely 2024 Pritzker Prize recipients:
(Claude 2 only gave us 19 predictions)
Top choice: Anna Heringer
After reviewing the most recent Pritzker Architecture Prize winners from the last 5 years and considering the focus on sustainability, social impact, and pioneering spirit they embody, if I had to select one hypothetical winner it would be Anna Heringer.
Anna Heringer is a German architect doing exceptional community-based work, often in some of the poorest regions of the world. Some examples that demonstrate why I believe she would be an excellent candidate:
Considering her relatively young career and impact already, Anna Heringer demonstrates the spirit of invention, social conscience, and mastery of craft that I believe make her a compelling hypothetical future Pritzker Laureate. Her work empowers communities through architecture very aligned with recent winners.
20 most-likely 2024 Pritzker Prize recipients:
Top choice: Marina Tabassum
Considering the type of winners selected for the Pritzker Prize in the last five years, which includes architects like David Chipperfield (2023), Diébédo Francis Kéré (2022), and Anne Lacaton and Jean-Philippe Vassal (2021), there's a clear trend towards architects whose work demonstrates a strong commitment to social, environmental, and cultural sustainability, as well as a sensitivity to context and history.
These laureates have been recognized for their understated yet transformative contributions to architecture, steering clear of fleeting trends in favor of creating functional, long-lasting, and meaningful spaces.
Given these criteria, Marina Tabassum stands out as a highly likely candidate for the next Pritzker Prize. Her work, particularly in Bangladesh, is deeply rooted in a respect for local contexts, environments, and materials. Tabassum's architecture is known for its sensitivity to the socio-economic conditions of her country, as well as its environmental responsiveness. A notable project is the Bait Ur Rouf Mosque in Dhaka, which has been widely acclaimed for its spiritual and innovative use of light and space, crafted with a deep understanding of the local community's needs and traditions.
Tabassum's approach aligns with the recent direction of the Pritzker Prize, focusing on architects who contribute positively to society and the environment through thoughtful, innovative, and culturally relevant designs. Her work embodies the principles of sustainability, community engagement, and the creation of spaces that are both functional and uplifting, making her a strong contender for the prize considering the trends of the past five years.
Stay tuned for the official announcement of the Pritizer Prize winner, on Archinect tomorrow, March 5.
23 Comments
Good one ChatGPT 4... Jeanne Gang would be my guess as well.
.... or maybe this is the year that S. Holl breaks the wicked spell?? I'm not holding my breath.
Amanda Levete is actually a good shout. I find her work more formally compelling than Jeanne Gang's or most of the other architects working with whacky forms these days.
Totally agree with this sentiment.Swoopy forms became much more achievable as software (mainly rhino) became more accessible to the masses. But creating curved forms and creating good curved forms are not the same thing. She's done some fantastic projects in this vein; I think of Dorte Mandrup's most well-known works achieve similar ends.
I'm still holding out for Safdie's moustache.
David Adjaye #1? I think this is what they call a hallucination in AI speak.
AI may need to go back to school… the winner Riken Yamamoto was not even listed by ChatGPT 4, Google Gemini, Anthropic Claude 2 or Perplexity as a possible winner in this article … sorry to all the architects (Gang, Holl, Safdie etc) and designers (Oxman etc) who may have believed that AI can predict winners, were planning their acceptance speech and dreaming of how to spend their $100,000 prize money…. Someone should also tell AI that you have to be a licensed architect to win the Pritzker Prize, not a designer…. so Neri Oxman and Thomas Heatherwick are both not eligible at this time… maybe Pritzker needs to increase the prize money, $100,000 may have been a lot of money in 1979 but not 45 years later in 2024…
Can you elaborate or provide a source for "you have to be a licensed architect to win the Pritzker Prize"?
Quote from Pritzer Prize website www.pritzerprize.com
Purpose
To honor a living architect or architects whose built work demonstrates a combination of those qualities of talent, vision, and commitment, which has produced consistent and significant contributions to humanity and the built environment through the art of architecture.
The international prize, which is awarded each year to a living architect/s for significant achievement, was established by the Pritzker family of Chicago through their Hyatt Foundation in 1979. It is granted annually and is often referred to as “architecture’s Nobel” and “the profession’s highest honor.”
The award consists of $100,000 (US) and a bronze medallion. The award is conferred on the laureate/s at a ceremony held at an architecturally significant site throughout the world.
Endquote
To clarify, each country whether the US, UK, Australia, India, Brazil, Japan etc from where Laureates have been selected defines their own requirements to be a licensed or registered Architect…
Quote from Pritzker Prize website
www.pritzkerprize.com
This does not state that recipients need to be licensed architects.
Archinect- With all due respect, the American Institute of Architects defines all architectural positions at https://www.aia.org/resource-center/definition-of-architectural-positions
Any position with the title “Architect” such as Senior Architect, Architect Level III, Architect Level II or Architect Level I states “years of experience required and certification as a licensed professional required.” and the same for Landscape Architect.
Non licensed positions are not allowed to be called or use the title “Architects” but are called Project Designer, Project Manager, Architectural Staff III (non licensed) etc…
The UK RIBA, Australian Institute of Architects Japan Instiute of Architects etc all have similar definitions….and publishes online lists of Registered Architects for consumers to check, the same as states in the US does…
Please explain how you believe a designer or person with a professional architecture degree but no license or registration can be eligible for the Pritzker Prize…
The Pritzker Prize is an international award that does not list licensure, which is defined differently across the world, as being a requirement to win the prize.
Archinect - So based on your explanation, are you saying Melania Trump could win the Pritzker Prize for the tennis pavilion on the south grounds of the White House…
The only thing we're saying is that the Pritzker Prize does not mention a requirement of licensure regarding potential recipients of the prize, contrary what you said in your original comment.
Archinect - My original comment was that none of the four (4) AI models you spent time conversing with for your article for their sixty four (64) possible predictions listed today’s 2024 Pritzker Prize winner Riken Yamamoto even as a possibility and then added in my comment that only “licensed” architects not designers are eligible, to point out that the AI models should have only included architects, not designers in their lists.
Its very disappointing that in your comments you have not addressed this failure of AI to even list the winner in their 64 predictions… instead you have spent all day trying to prove whether or not the Pritzker Prize winner in your opinion has to be licensed….
We don't consider it a failure that AI didn't predict the winner. That would have been highly unlikely. As stated in the article, this was a fun experiment. The only point we're making with you is to dispute your claim that the Pritzker requires that the winner be a licensed architect. This is false, and we're setting the record clear that this is not a published requirement on behalf of the Pritzker.
Archinect- Since you were just having “a fun experiment” then maybe you should have told your four (4) AI models as a criteria not to select so many architectural firms for the Pritzker Prize, as it does NOT allow Firms to be nominated -
https://www.pritzkerprize.com/nominate
How to Nominate -
“The prize is awarded irrespective of nationality, race, creed, or ideology to a living architect or architects, but not to an architectural firm.“
Announced this morning: Riken Yamamoto wins the 2024 Pritzker Prize
it's interesting that the AI models all had the same rationalization of predicting winners focused on social justice, sustainability, and community impact - perhaps showing one limitation of predictive models based only on statistical datasets. Whereas this year's selection seems to reflect a more traditional focus on elegance and quality of craft and maybe a sense of vision for the future urban environment. Juries tend to intentionally avoid making awards fit a pattern.
So, not one of the AI platforms' predictions had the actual winner even as a possibility...
cbscott you are correct.
I commented the same thing yesterday about the 4 AI models and also mentioned that some selected architectural firms incorrectly, as firms are not allowed to be nominated by the Pritzker Prize Nomination Criteria, only a living architects or architects but then Archinect censored all my comments and they are now hidden from view.
Lets see how long your comment stays up.
The tendency of the Pritzer Prize these recent years just disgusts me .
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