Wildfires are becoming an increasing threat to American homeowners with the acceleration of climate change, and now a new tool from the nonprofit First Street Foundation will allow them to access probability-based data about the potential risk their property may face over the next 30 years. 

By incorporating open-source tax information, satellite imaging, and advanced computer modeling, the Foundation was able to produce a Fire Factor metric and interactive map that details both the intensity of future burns and their ability to move across varying topographies. An individual structure’s score is thus determined by its available defensible space, roof and construction type, and proximity to fuels like trees, shrubs, and wild grasses.

Currently, there is no publicly available data on fire risk similar to the flood damage assessments required by the federal National Flood Insurance Program that was first enacted in 1968. Looking to fill that information gap in lieu of the catastrophic threats posed by climate change to expanded areas of the country in the coming decades, researchers were able to deliver an important public resource that was until now unavailable save for an outdated system in California and nascent effort still underway in Oregon.

The report indicates a total of 80 million properties across the country are at risk from potential fires in the three-decade timeframe. More than 10 million properties fall between the ‘Major’ and ‘Extreme’ categories, with significant increases projected for states like New Jersey, Massachusetts, Florida, Louisiana, and Arkansas. Only 49.4 million structures were declared to be of ‘Minor’ risk, meaning their burn probabilities will remain under 1% before 2052, although researchers also cautioned against “looming catastrophe” of properties entering the more severe assessment levels as a result of manmade ecological changes.

Popular listings website Realtor.com has already implemented the assessment tool into its services. First Street says it plans to expand the tool to other online real estate entities by years end, and that it will be accompanied by information for homeowners on how best to protect their properties against one of the myriad natural disasters that factor into a full 71% of all homebuying decisions, according to a recent survey from Realtor.com and HarrisX. 

“A little more than one out of two single-family homes across the country has at least some wildfire risks,” a product manager for the company told Axios of the need to make such information available and easily accessible. “We think it's important for every American to have access to this type of information.”