A second supplemental Quarterly Market Forecast (QMF) from PSMJ Resources conducted to gauge the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the Architecture Engineering and Construction industry offers somewhat positive news for the month of May.

After posting a steep, 27% decline in proposal activity for the month of April, the survey shows a relatively smaller decrease in May of -9%.

The survey shows that the degree of contraction within many sectors of the construction field has lessened in recent weeks, indicating that, at least for now, the month of April represents the lowest point in the most recent economic cycle. 

Of particular signifiance, according to the authors of the survey, is the level of activity taking place in housing construction, which has shown a significant bounce back from the April lows. 

The authors of the report explain: "The Housing market improved markedly, up to -7% in May from -27% in April and -19% in the 1st Quarter of 2020. While still slightly negative, Housing’s increased activity may be a good sign for overall economic health as residential proposal activity tends to be a leading indicator for many other markets." 

To which David Burstein, PSMJ Senior Principal, added, “I expect to see a rapid rebound in housing and commercial development once the health crisis passes and the impact of record-low interest rates starts to be felt. Pent up demand should make its presence felt by the end of Q3, and even more so in Q4 if we see movement on an infrastructure bill.”

Typically, QMF conducts, as its name implies, quarterly surveys to gauge economic activity, but has conducted two such surveys since the coronavirus pandemic took hold in the United States in March. 

The American Institute of Architects's (AIA) latest update to its Architecture Billings Index (ABI) monthly economic survey is due to be published June 24, 2020.