There just futures contract prices - they dont translate 1:1 to actual barrel prices, but ya it does signal an relentless upwards trend - mostly built on fear mongering and demand, mostly fear mongering

growing demand is definitely part of the mix...but don't forget that global supply has been relatively stagnant for years now...it would really be nice if some more massive oilfields were discoverd soon

I bet once the NYMEX speculators make back the $trillion that evaporated in the credit market the prices will come down

There's a lot more in play than the speculators on the NYMEX. I hear all the news about the "risk premimum" built into the spot prices because of Iran, Nigeria, et. al. Then I hear that it's all devaluation of the USD. Yeah, that might account for a little bit, but not doubling of prices in under one year.

Upstream production and downstream demand are IMO the primary factors. I know people that work in oil & gas production. Trust me, at $116 WTI they are pumping every last drop they can find. There is no embargo or artificial block on the supply right now which signals to me we all might be forced to live differently really soon.

anyone know what the inflation rate would be if the boskin commision hadn't changed the way things were measured to falsely deflate the cpi?

San Francisco - will top the US charts probably sometime next week with a record $4.00/gal. Currently at $3.96/gal.

Sooooooooooooo glad I sold my truck in December!

Now maybe people will get the hint that they need to stop driving their Hummer to the corner store...get on a bike you fat lazy american bastard!

it's not about the hummer.

it's about low-balled mpg rates, and any attempt to increase is blasted as something that will hurt our economy more.

bullshit. if anything it will increase because with gas @ $6.00+ in other countries, the last thing foreign buyers want is a substandard car that costs a crapload to drive. the exception would be the guy doing laps around lake zuerich in his new viper.

christ, the puegot 308 is getting 75+ mpg.

the added bonus that oil money feeds the war on terrorism should be enough to wake up anyone, except those looting taxpayer dollars (you know who you are, a**holes)

Nice Hybrid Bio-Diesel about time!

Nice Bio...Hybrid Diesel..

75 m/gallon? damn.....too bad Peugeot doesn't sell its cars in this country.

That’s because w/ real competition, Americans would realize the inferiority of our cars…

gasoline just went down to $6.00 a gallon here in japan. they took off a 22 cent tax that had expired.

seems we are experiencing an energy break point.

Sure the economy is going to suck...thats something we really cant do shit about -

Americans need to wake the fuck up and stop wasting oil and destoying our grandchildrens future

Let's Roll!

My aunt runs the trading office at BP London. Her boyfriend is one of the mega traders. According to her, as of last week, the reason the traders are pushing prices up have to do with a long list of factors including, but not limited to:
Iran/Nigeria
The floundering dollar
Exponential demand from BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India, and China)
Oil is now thrown in with Gold and Silver in recession-proof comodities
Hedgefund activity (especially rumors specifically spread to up prices)

Aqua is right. With oil prices this high all fields are being pumped at capacity.

holz, I think there is real competition. Toyota is kicking ass right now. As far as other European cars go, the Euro is too high and the safety ratings are too low.

As far as $4 gas, I put $3.94 Diesel in the trucks at work today. Its getting close.

weAREtheSTONES we can do something about our economy. Go buy Basic Economics by Thomas Sowell. Read it. Then buy a copy for all your friends and do everything you can to ensure your children have a proper Economic education. Maybe one day we'll go back to the gold standard. Maybe one day we'll have congressional oversight on the Federal Reserve. Maybe Ben Bernake will start listening to Jim Cramer more often. As long as we are ignorant on economics, we will continue to vote for horrible economic policy because things like price controls and subsidies sound great on the surface, but really government control of the economy has gotten us into a lot of this mess.

I could go on, but I'm rambling.

BTW, 765, that has to be one of the best responses I've ever seen on the 'Nect. +10 cool points.

oil price is comparatively low as compare with other commodities...

the US government has compressed the oil price/gold all these years to save the buying power of US dollar.

there is an often asked mysteries- why after the invasion of iraq and the oil price can hit record high?

not because iraq has Mass destructive weapons nor US want the control the supply of oil... is because iraq refuse to take US dollar when selling oil and this serve a warning sign to all other arab nations....

rfuller, totally agree on basic economics...i'm reading 'economic facts and fallacies' by Sowell - it's excellent. the government should only interfere with the economy in the presence of externalities, nothing more. in the long run, bureaucracy always drives prices up/inflation.

rfuller, you've got it reversed.

the u.s. ratings don't take car impact intrusion into account, whereas the euro testings do, and are done @ slower speeds.

and until trucks like this are forced to have bars, or the nhtsa actually does testing involving trucks like this and cars, i won't believe otherwise. almost died cos some woman couldn't control hers this afternoon...

HAHAHAHA Holz, that's a jacked-up mini truck.

Say what you want about whatever tests you want. If I go head to head with a smart in my work truck, someone's about to die.

Cause of death-Chevy 2500 HD

brazil find is nice...but i would love to hear of another ghawar or two...and preferably not in the middle east either

gas prices in Winnipeg where I live (and jump's from) are the highest in Canada right now, at about $5/gallon and rising.

When I bought my car two years ago, it cost $30 to fill. Now it's $50.

I am so happy to work from home. I probably put about 2000 miles a year on my car (keeps my new toy all nice and new, high resale, low insurance and less expense, not to mention less impact on the environment).

I agree about the safety regs here. Until they make it across the board, it'll be jaded. Trucks are the best selling single vehicle, why they don't have the same safety regs are beyond me (I know why, but it isn't right).

I remember when Ferrari had to make a special F40 to import without the ride height adjustments so it would meet US bumper heights. F'in' idiots we have here.




I am kinda glad that gas is high right now, at least from a political stand point. Makes it look even more futile for us to be sticking our noses into other's business.

I am naive on the supply chain, but from what I've heard Nigeria is a big variable now and the instability with rebels is part of the problem with supply.
Any thoughts on that? Much too lazy to go looking for the info myself.

Average UK petrol prices are slowly approaching $10 gallon and have even surpassed that in some places.

We are approaching or have approached peak oil but we still dither about trying to wean ourselves off the drug.

Officially paid $4 for Diesel this afternoon in the LBK

Funny thing about the work truck. It doesn't matter what I'm pulling or whether I'm pulling anything at all. I get 11 mpg. Period. Oh, 15mpg on the highway. I think I'm gonna take a picture of me hanging out the window of my work truck with an open beer and an erect middle finger. Maybe I'll hook up to the 5 ton barbecue rig we've got, too. I think that would make a great picture.

Paid $3.45/gallon over the weekend. Half a tank cost about $35. Wasn't too long ago that $30 would fill the whole thing when on fumes. Good thing that a tank can last me a month or more.

Go in to get a coffee, since the gas stations survive off selling convenience items, not gasoline. While in there some guy is berating the clerk because "big oil" is screwing the consumer, as he buys a plastic bottle of Mt. Dew (far more expensive than gasoline) and he exits to jump in his full size Chevy truck (not the most efficient vehicle).

I imagine a good majority of Americans are like that guy at the gas station. He no doubt has any clue where oil comes from and who controls it. Obviously has zero clue that "big oil" controls less than 5% of global production. Probably doesn't know that the USA consumes 20 million barrels of oil per day, or roughly a swimming pool full every second. He also probably doesn't know that of a 42 gallon barrel only roughly 20 gallons +/- can be made into gasoline, even less diesel. All he cares about is cheap energy so he can continue his "non-negotiable" way of life as he's used to.

The timing might not have been right, but have always said President Bush would have the support of the public if he called Iraq for what it really was, an oil grab. Don't mean to make the discussion political, but I think the majority of people would go to war before changing their lifestyle to live differently.

Turner: Do we have plans to invade the Middle East?

Higgins: Are you crazy?

Turner: Am I?

Higgins: Look, Turner…

Turner: Do we have plans?

Higgins: No. Absolutely not. We have games. That's all. We play games. What if? How many men? What would it take? Is there a cheaper way to destabilize a regime? That's what we're paid to do.

Turner: So Atwood just took the games too seriously. He was really going to do it, wasn't he?

Higgins: A renegade operation. Atwood knew 54/12 would never authorize it, not with the heat on the company.

Turner: What if there hadn't been any heat? Suppose I hadn't stumbled on their plan?

Higgins: Different ballgame. Fact is, there was nothing wrong with the plan. Oh, the plan was all right, the plan would've worked.

Turner: Boy, what is it with you people? You think not getting caught in a lie is the same thing as telling the truth?

Higgins: No. It's simple economics. Today it's oil, right? In ten or fifteen years, food. Plutonium. And maybe even sooner. Now, what do you think the people are gonna want us to do then?

Turner: Ask them.

Higgins: Not now — then! Ask 'em when they're running out. Ask 'em when there's no heat in their homes and they're cold. Ask 'em when their engines stop. Ask 'em when people who have never known hunger start going hungry. You wanna know something? They won't want us to ask 'em. They'll just want us to get it for 'em!

from "Three Days of the Condor"

WOW rfuller, sounds like you have it all figured out....so when are you going to fix the economy?

As soon as people like you start realizing that the economy can be affected by our actions, especially who we vote for.

nice! - Automatically its someone elses fault!

woot!
a new high this is getting exciting, and mexico may have peaked?

Seriously? WTF? Look, I just chimed in with my two cents. Don't like it, fine. But there's no sense in being a douchebag.

Excuse me for replying to one snide comment with another.

rfuller, I'll vote for you. After all, you can't be worse than the pathetic options we're being given this year.

woohoo high oil prices, the value of those properties I invested in near major public transit in a major city just keeps going up. yay me!

you would elect a guy who drives a 8 mpg automobile?

Chimmed in w/ your 2cents??? OK. Sounds like you were actually putting down my friends and myself when you have no idea who me or my friends are.

All Im saying is if we could control what the economy (inflation, which is what the thread is about...rising oil prices) does then why the hell dont we do it?

A way that WE may slow the inflation is to Boycott the fuel companies...but we all know that is nearly impossible...even yourself. With your desiel hog and all. I mean I understand you have a job to do and you may or may not need a truck with 30" tires that just wastes fuel in themselves, a 4" lift kit for more wind resistance, and a 5ton BBQ to drag your ass down, but you need to to get to work right? You really need that 5 ton bbq, you really need those 30" tires to get into work everyday...you really need a deisel right?

Everyday I bust my fucking ass to do the right thing for the future of the world and the enviornment. If we all just thought about what we do on an everyday basis and tried to cut back a little on the things that hurt the enviornment, the economy, and the future, we might not be having this conversation right now.

i'll happily cut back on anything that hurts me...but i'm much less concerned about anything that hurts the environment, economy, etc.

and it's probably debatable about what actually qualifies as "hurting" these things anyways. some might argue that it would be best for the planet if humans just stopped existing. however, killing myself seems to run counter to my primary code and if, as an architect, i'm complicit in creating the artificial/manmade environment then i'm more concerned with improving that at the expense of the earth.

I'd be happy if gas hits $10/gallon once i can drive around in an electric car.

it's earth day i skateboarded to work today

anyone here bought oil futures? i'm thinking to start selling cos i do not see the reason behind $120 a barrel.

Putting down you and your friends? Dude, you need to slow down with these replies. I think that was a little rushed.

For the record my original post was an optimistic and friendly one. I think Basic Economics is a great book. I re-read it every 6 months. I was suggesting a good book, not trying to be a dick.

The post about the open beer and the finger was meant to be a joke because I understand how crappy this thread had been making me sound.

BTW, I guess all those trees I pulled across town so we could plant them on our site would really hurt the environment. You're right. And everyone knows you should be able to pull 5 6" pecan trees with a prius. And I suppose the 8" (not 4") lift kit and 30" tires were completely unnecessary when I had to pull the trailer into the almost completely unimproved lot we planted them in.

Sounds like you don't have any idea what me and my friends do with our big diesels.

Oh, and that 5 ton BBQ pit feeds 150 homeless and unemployed people on the 3rd Friday of every month.

Well, I'll just get back to assholing around and raping the environment now.

Aqua, thanks for your vote.

why would you feed 150 homeless? wouldn't it be better to just let them starve?

haha. Yeah. It would probably be cheaper, too. That's money we could be spending on booze and diesel.

I drive a Fit and I've managed to fit in 5 2x12 12ft oak boards into it with no probs, plus the wife and dog, mind you the boards stuck out the arse of the car a bit, but the shocks held out. I have some landscaping to do this weekend, I wonder if the Fit will hold a tree or two....hmmmmmmm

rfuller 2012

I don't trade futures, but I do have investments in oil through many different avenues. All have been quite profitable as I bought back in 2002 and watched the value grow with the increase in oil prices. And no, I'm not selling because I don't see any resistance against higher prices.

#1. Global demand is more than the 85 million barrels per day that the world can pump. Biofuels, coal to liquids and other "synthetic" crude sources are filling the gap.

#2. Instability in exporting countries isn't going to stop - see Nigeria, Venezuela, middle east.

#3. All global currencies are inflating (devaluing) which can only mean higher prices for commodities. The Euro is doing the same as the US Dollar, just not as fast - i.e. oil is more expensive in all currencies. I don't see that stopping.

#4. Even if there was the political will to open ANWR, pacific & atlantic shelf to drilling it would be 10 years before supply would come online to curb price growth. And we don't know what that supply would even be.

#5. Huge demand growth in exporting countries thanks to price controls in places like KSA, Iran, etc. That equals less available to export.

#6. Resource nationalism. Given the rise is price exporting countries have every reason to ration exports, saving some for their own people, or for future sale at much higher prices.

#7. Oil is finite. As early as 2005 Mexico was the #2 supplier to the USA. Today they are #4 and falling fast. Mexico's Cantarell field is the 2nd largest in the world and is in steep decline. Nothing that has been found in the past 20 years equals that size.

The North Sea is in decline. Russia is in decline. Kuwait is in decline. Venezuela is in decline. There are even signs that Saudi Arabia is in decline, i.e. they've admitted that the "easy" oil is gone.

All that tells me is live locally and go long oil & gas.

Nice aqua.

I say go long on ag, too with this big ethanol push. I've made a killing in ag in the 1st quarter.