Good point rfuller. I'm long on ag. Got some food holdings. Missed the big runs in players like Monsanto & Potash. Think fertilizer is the real story in the ag front. After all, it's made from fossil fuels, believe it or not, and essential to feed the world. No way could organics come close to feeing 6.5+ billion people.
Interesting note about oil prices though -
$120/barrel today is an 80% YOY price increase
At that same pace by 2009 we're seeing $216 barrel
2010 would be $389...2011 would be $700...2012 would be $1260
Found that on another website and found it interesting. Not all that plausable, but very intriguing.
If the price of gasoline compounds the same as that hypothetical we'd see a gallon of gasoline over $50 by 2012. That would make for a very interesting election year. In 2008 I haven't heard a word from any politician saying "conserve." Ridiculous.
Yeah. I when I say I made a killing in ag, I really mean I've been riding Potash all the way up. I'll admit Cramer turned me on to it.
Those numbers are pretty astonishing. But at the same time I doubt we'll see an 80% YOY sustained for 4 straight years. That 80% is also coming up from another bottom.
One thing I don't think a lot of people realize is that $120 won't be reflected at the pumps until July.
I'm getting worried because in Construction we can't go out and buy hybrids to run around town and save gas. We actually need the big diesels to pull job trailers around. I have a feeling this is going to be a rough season for a lot of construction companies who don't see profits until closing. 6 Months to a year is a long time to have to squeeze pennies before you can pass the bill on to the customer.
rfuller BIODIESEL man
i tell every person is see driving a diesel to fill up with it it is cheaper, it makes no pollution(at least not the stuff measured at DEQ) it gets more mileage and keeps your engine running better (less loud)
and i make my own for free(minus the methanol)
Anti - BioD is no cheaper than regular diesel where I'm at these days.
unfortunately the rising cost per barrel of crude is transferring down to the producers of fresh bio-d also.
my purveyor is purchasing waste oil from an organic potato chip factory, but they're paying more for the raw soy oil on the front end, so trickle down trickle down, and I'm at $4/gal for my go go juice. sad but true.
i didn't start running bio-d for the $$$ savings anyway, so i'm cool with it for now.
good to hear you are running greasel too! and here i thought i was alone on the archinect
i was on a road trip last weekend to some property i own on the continental divide to set up a solar well and the price per gallon of diesel was 4.35 a gallon up there, lucky for me the girl who works the french fry machine at the local chuck wagon saves it for me, i got her a barrel and had her stop putting it in the trash, so i had what i needed even thou i didn't need it as i get a 600 mile trip per 12 gallon tank.
For those that only see heavily filtered US news reports, one of the largest refineries in the UK is shut down. Grangemouth workers are striking for 2 days, however getting everything restarted and back online could take some time. And how does that affect the US consumer, well....
Top finished gasoline exporters to the USA, total for 2007
1. United Kingdom 25.147 million barrels
2. U.S. Virgin Islands 23.590
3. France 11.209
4. Canada 10.605
5. Netherlands 10.518
6. Norway 8.406
7. Germany 8.351
8. Russia 7.387
9. Italy 7.239
10. OPEC Countries 5.516
This is all excess gasoline that refiners don't need in their local markets because diesel is the fuel of choice (and why diesel is not the panacea for America that people think it is).
Thankfully for Americans all these exports help supress the price of gasoline. Well, our #1 supplier of this is going offline. They'll have no excess to export and will probably compete with the US for the other Euro exports. Hold on to your wallets.
And in case you didn't know....
Top crude oil exporters to the USA, total for 2007
Anyone seen the stock price of GM lately? Sure is a shitty time to be in the business of selling trucks & SUV's. Widespread speculation of when they go Chapter 11.
Airlines also limping along with rumors of which one will get liquidated (chapter 7) first.
Stock market tanking.
Anyone that thinks the world economy can survive without cheap and abundant energy is delusional.
Yup, I own some GM. Worth next to nothing now, so I'll just let it drip away and hope someone buys them out (they are a tiny company, market cap wise).
Scary time and getting scarier. No safe place to keep money worries me - bonds will drop soon, money markets/savings are paying nothing, stock market looks like it'll be tanking for a long time.
Honestly, this is starting to look pretty dire. Oil is the killer of it all, or at least the nail in the coffin.
I bought a shit load of royalty trusts in the fall of last year....fed up that the fed was cutting rates and killing return on cash. Best thing I ever did. Distributions way way way way up and share price is up too.
Right now I'm investing in water. It's more precious than oil. Also putting USD into gold/silver.
Still, at the end of the day, I'd prefer a world of $50 oil. Airfare is getting to the point where traveling is a big deal. Gasoline is a killer even in econ cars. Still think the hardcore environmentalists will be swept under the carpet in an expensive energy future. But that's just my opinion.
I almost did, wish I had. Water is looking interesting too. I do have a bunch in energy and commodities that have done quite well over the last 6 months (considering).
I agree that environmentalists will be run over in the process. We'll see, there was some announcement yesterday about a new off shore drilling site opened - the environ group that blocked them allowed them to drill if they agreed to close other sites. This seems like a way to appease both sides a little, which we'll need.
McCain is proposing 25 new nuclear plants, that scares me. It'll take 10 years for the first one to be only, which would not help us one bit. Seems like that's just give terrorists big targets.
I like nuclear for baseload energy. What's frusturating is the notion that "renewables" can replace the current electrical grid. I'm all for wind and solar but they are not baseload that can be turned on at the flick of a switch.
Nuclear simply has to be part of the future unless we plan to keep burning coal with no end in sight. But nuclear does take forever to get built, well beyond short term politics, which makes me think it'll never happen. Many of the greens have come around on it though. Wasn't it the founder of Greenpeace that went pro-nuclear a while back?
Record Oil Prices
/me keeps pumping free fuel from grease trash dumpsters
Good point rfuller. I'm long on ag. Got some food holdings. Missed the big runs in players like Monsanto & Potash. Think fertilizer is the real story in the ag front. After all, it's made from fossil fuels, believe it or not, and essential to feed the world. No way could organics come close to feeing 6.5+ billion people.
Interesting note about oil prices though -
$120/barrel today is an 80% YOY price increase
At that same pace by 2009 we're seeing $216 barrel
2010 would be $389...2011 would be $700...2012 would be $1260
Found that on another website and found it interesting. Not all that plausable, but very intriguing.
If the price of gasoline compounds the same as that hypothetical we'd see a gallon of gasoline over $50 by 2012. That would make for a very interesting election year. In 2008 I haven't heard a word from any politician saying "conserve." Ridiculous.
Organics are chemical synthesized fetalizers
you mean Organic food production?
india has proved it can and it gives more yields i recommend you read or watch material by Vandana Shiva.
funny how peak oil brings out allot of unethical behavior by people who will sell their pride and values to capitalize and exploit any situation.
Yeah. I when I say I made a killing in ag, I really mean I've been riding Potash all the way up. I'll admit Cramer turned me on to it.
Those numbers are pretty astonishing. But at the same time I doubt we'll see an 80% YOY sustained for 4 straight years. That 80% is also coming up from another bottom.
One thing I don't think a lot of people realize is that $120 won't be reflected at the pumps until July.
I'm getting worried because in Construction we can't go out and buy hybrids to run around town and save gas. We actually need the big diesels to pull job trailers around. I have a feeling this is going to be a rough season for a lot of construction companies who don't see profits until closing. 6 Months to a year is a long time to have to squeeze pennies before you can pass the bill on to the customer.
rfuller BIODIESEL man
i tell every person is see driving a diesel to fill up with it it is cheaper, it makes no pollution(at least not the stuff measured at DEQ) it gets more mileage and keeps your engine running better (less loud)
and i make my own for free(minus the methanol)
Anti - BioD is no cheaper than regular diesel where I'm at these days.
unfortunately the rising cost per barrel of crude is transferring down to the producers of fresh bio-d also.
my purveyor is purchasing waste oil from an organic potato chip factory, but they're paying more for the raw soy oil on the front end, so trickle down trickle down, and I'm at $4/gal for my go go juice. sad but true.
i didn't start running bio-d for the $$$ savings anyway, so i'm cool with it for now.
it is much cheaper here, 50 cents less
and the ethanol is eve cheaper at 2.75 a gallon.
good to hear you are running greasel too! and here i thought i was alone on the archinect
i was on a road trip last weekend to some property i own on the continental divide to set up a solar well and the price per gallon of diesel was 4.35 a gallon up there, lucky for me the girl who works the french fry machine at the local chuck wagon saves it for me, i got her a barrel and had her stop putting it in the trash, so i had what i needed even thou i didn't need it as i get a 600 mile trip per 12 gallon tank.
Yeah Anti, I would be all about Bio except the nearest place to fill up is 300 miles away.
DIY?
For those that only see heavily filtered US news reports, one of the largest refineries in the UK is shut down. Grangemouth workers are striking for 2 days, however getting everything restarted and back online could take some time. And how does that affect the US consumer, well....
Top finished gasoline exporters to the USA, total for 2007
1. United Kingdom 25.147 million barrels
2. U.S. Virgin Islands 23.590
3. France 11.209
4. Canada 10.605
5. Netherlands 10.518
6. Norway 8.406
7. Germany 8.351
8. Russia 7.387
9. Italy 7.239
10. OPEC Countries 5.516
This is all excess gasoline that refiners don't need in their local markets because diesel is the fuel of choice (and why diesel is not the panacea for America that people think it is).
Thankfully for Americans all these exports help supress the price of gasoline. Well, our #1 supplier of this is going offline. They'll have no excess to export and will probably compete with the US for the other Euro exports. Hold on to your wallets.
And in case you didn't know....
Top crude oil exporters to the USA, total for 2007
1. Canada 680.533 million barrels
2. Saudi Arabia 530.245
3. Mexico 514.48
4. Venezuela 419.841
5. Nigeria 394.856
6. Angola 181.215
7. Iraq 177.009
8. Algeria 161.755
9. Ecuador 72.138
10. Kuwait 64.306
http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav/pet/pet_move_impcus_a2_nus_epc0_im0_mbbl_a.htm
http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav/pet/pet_move_impcus_a2_nus_epm0f_im0_mbbl_a.htm
so us Canadians are sending out the most crude to he US, but were paying $1.25/L (about 4.75/Gallon).. not fair.
i go over to detriot every weekend to fill up on that cheep US gas
i'll take 3.55/gal ANYDAY!!
**Bump**
Oil hits record over $142
Anyone seen the stock price of GM lately? Sure is a shitty time to be in the business of selling trucks & SUV's. Widespread speculation of when they go Chapter 11.
Airlines also limping along with rumors of which one will get liquidated (chapter 7) first.
Stock market tanking.
Anyone that thinks the world economy can survive without cheap and abundant energy is delusional.
Yup, I own some GM. Worth next to nothing now, so I'll just let it drip away and hope someone buys them out (they are a tiny company, market cap wise).
Scary time and getting scarier. No safe place to keep money worries me - bonds will drop soon, money markets/savings are paying nothing, stock market looks like it'll be tanking for a long time.
Honestly, this is starting to look pretty dire. Oil is the killer of it all, or at least the nail in the coffin.
at least i still have my gun.
at least i still get my Veggie Waste Oil FREE!
move your money to Hong Kong bank accounts that is what Iran did , good move
good thing i converted all the cash to euros back in '03... 50% return isn't too bad
i sold my oil futures at $120... one of the biggest regret for 2008.
I bought a shit load of royalty trusts in the fall of last year....fed up that the fed was cutting rates and killing return on cash. Best thing I ever did. Distributions way way way way up and share price is up too.
Right now I'm investing in water. It's more precious than oil. Also putting USD into gold/silver.
Still, at the end of the day, I'd prefer a world of $50 oil. Airfare is getting to the point where traveling is a big deal. Gasoline is a killer even in econ cars. Still think the hardcore environmentalists will be swept under the carpet in an expensive energy future. But that's just my opinion.
I almost did, wish I had. Water is looking interesting too. I do have a bunch in energy and commodities that have done quite well over the last 6 months (considering).
I agree that environmentalists will be run over in the process. We'll see, there was some announcement yesterday about a new off shore drilling site opened - the environ group that blocked them allowed them to drill if they agreed to close other sites. This seems like a way to appease both sides a little, which we'll need.
McCain is proposing 25 new nuclear plants, that scares me. It'll take 10 years for the first one to be only, which would not help us one bit. Seems like that's just give terrorists big targets.
Buy, sell, pray?
I like nuclear for baseload energy. What's frusturating is the notion that "renewables" can replace the current electrical grid. I'm all for wind and solar but they are not baseload that can be turned on at the flick of a switch.
Nuclear simply has to be part of the future unless we plan to keep burning coal with no end in sight. But nuclear does take forever to get built, well beyond short term politics, which makes me think it'll never happen. Many of the greens have come around on it though. Wasn't it the founder of Greenpeace that went pro-nuclear a while back?
^^ My only issue with nuclear is where the hell does one put all that radioactive waste?
the other issue is the cost of building reactors. i just posted this article from business week on the "92x92" thread.
think Indian reservations.
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