Fortunately, the Chinese don't have much to gain by devaluing the currency of their largest trading partner.
If you are feeling down, just remember that at basically every point in its history, the US has been one step from collapse for one reason or another. It mostly has worked out okay.
They used to say when America coughs, the rest of the world catches a cold. I'm sure there's still truth in that as America is the ONLY net importing country out there. It's a house of cards for sure, but when it falls it will be more than just America that feels the pain.
what kind of firm is more stable in these troubling times with a recession in sight:
midsize/large firms doing mass housing (the part of the team that might get laid off if the developer stopped the project)
or
small residential firm with small commercial
my sense is that even if the shit hits the fan, people will still be doing smaller projects...house remodels, additions, nickel and dime kind of stuff, but big dollar condo crap is out if the market goes south
China has its own issues - namely undervalued currency which keeps them exports strong. As for our currency, one word, "revaluation". Then watch what happens
A strategy that one of my early bosses suggested to me during tough periods was to look for firms that did government work. The thought being that to spur the economy the fed would put money into public projects to help things keep going. Just a thought, typically what happens though is that for the general public the discretionary funds that help to by second homes boats and vacations drys up.
"what kind of firm is more stable in these troubling times with a recession in sight:"
the firms that will do the best (or, in these times manage to stay afloat) are the ones that offer services to the global market. Everyone else, stay braced!
Excuse my doomsday mentality, but when I started this thread it was because I really think we aren't going to have a currency or maybe even a country before long. Dipshit bush doesn't even know what's gonna hit him.
Strawbeary, no need to excuse yourself. I agree to a certain extent, that if we continue on the same path that Shrub started us on, we will certainly not be able to sustain our democracy. Meh, we might not anyway.
See this is what happens when the Daily Show is not on....I get to thinking that the country is going to crumble.
Strawbeary, I have similar concerns as you but I think the problem has been a long time coming. Bush hasn't helped things, but isn't the sole reason for the current situation.
Falling dollar - traces back to 1971 when Nixon axed the gold standard. I would even argue it preceeds that to the creation of the Fed Reserve. They're the ones running the printing presses and inflating our currency away.
Rising energy prices - simple supply outstripping demand. Namely growth in Chindia and dropping production in many exporting countries.
Credit crunch - Federal reserve's fault 100%
High inflation - See above
Negative savings rate - Can be partly blamed on bad gov't policy, but bottom line, the fault is on our own backs as we're spending more than we make. Ever heard of $100k student loan debt?
Neverending wars we can't afford - That one you can pin on Bush & Co. That ones a political hot potato but I think most will agree it's indirectly linked to energy prices.
Errr. Every single time I think about the mess that is our country is in, my mind keeps wondering to this little thing called the Fall of the Roman Empire. Scares the be-Jesus out of me. I don't like how my mind keeps comparing the two.
you are the third person in the past day who has mentioned gold..the other 2 being a friend of mine who is a broker for Vanguard and the LA Times. Apparently people are adding gold to their portfolios
Despite the entertainment industry's current "hiccup", America still exports these fine products:
1. Military hardware (guns, planes, missiles, etc.) (World's largest exporter too, WOOT!)
2. Vehicles (Fords are very popular with the international mining industry)
3. Steel (?)
4. Electronics (?)
5. Alcohol
6. Cigarettes
7. Fast Food
And much more!
Apparently, we're the 2nd largest exporter next to China, but holy fuck can those Chinese hawk their wares!
Dont forget computer software, engineering and geotechnical services, aircraft production, satelites ( yes thats a big market) and leagal council. We also educate more people in our state schools than any country anywhere else. We grow more food in Iowa alone than prob the rest of the planet. So we got game. Haters step off.
I've very bearish on all currencies. The rampant dollar printing by the Fed essentially exports US inflation to other countries. Meanwhile other countries are expanding the supply of their currency, just not quite as fast. Thus a run-up in the value of the UK pound, Euro, Loonie, and so on. Sarkozy in France has complained, as well Canada about this starting to hurt their exports. Get ready for inflation across the board in all currencies. That's why gold is such a big thing among investors. It's the best hedge against inflation. Just offshoring your investments does nothing if the country you invest in eventually does the same as is happening here at home.
Inflation is very dangerous. Essentially it's what put the Nazis into power in Germany. It can wipe out a lifes savings in no time, making everything else in your life a virtual non-issue. And why I think Fed chairman Bernake can in many ways be more dangerous than George Bush could ever be.
capital doesn't often disappear, it just shifts and moves. our weak dollar pisses off other countries because they're used to selling us their stuff. of course everyone's gonna complain.
but a weak dollar means our stuff is cheaper. our products and our labor. america's trade deficit is going down as a result.
also, it means that our real estate and corporations are a value investment. so to answer your question, yes, america IS for sale, but when has it not been?
but see "high inflation" below for a caveat.
as for rising energy crises, they will spark a short-term real commitment to energy efficiency and sustainability. not a long-term, but a short-term, but if we take two steps forward and one step back (like we have been doing since the 70s), then we're still ahead.
as for a credit crunch, imagine that, paying cash for something.
as for high inflation, that is the #1 concern of the federal governments and its owners, the american rich. while a weak dollar does benefit us somewhat, once a short-term infusion of capital has resulted from that weakness, they'll want to curb inflation no matter what else occurs. but see "wars" below.
as for a negative savings rate, that's just stupid.
never-ending wars we can't afford? i guess some of y'all were busy doing something else during high-school history classes. our war in iraq is clocking in at probably 5 - 6 years, which while longer than world war I and II and the civil war is shorter than the american revolution, which was 8 years (1775-1783) and a helluva lot longer than the vietnam war (1964-1975 technically) -- and just to lob another bomb in here, we've actually accomplished something in iraq as opposed to vietnam, whether your blue-tinted glasses filter it out or not. whether or not we can afford it -- well, one of those benefits of inflation is that the real value of our debt decreases with inflation unless the interest is higher...
all in all, the sun is shining today (at least it is where i am), government has much less to do with your life than it seems, and the smart and strong will always find a way to survive and thrive. never was that accomplished by navel-gazing.
I think China is getting a bigger chunk of our $$$....but they happily invest it back into the US via treasuries that keeps our economy propped. And keeps the sheeple shopping at Wal-Mart which starts the viscious cycle all over again.
newsflash...the us economy is not nearly so bad off as people are making it out to be. the lending market is in the process of correcting itself. there will be a lot of losers, many lending firms will go under, but in terms of home prices, we're about at the low water mark or will see it in the next six months. this is a great time to buy and begin capital investments, particularly in the markets that have been hardest hit. we clearly do have a problem with inflation that the fed has been unwilling to address. this is hampering a rebound, but in general i feel very optomistic.
with a weak dollar, gold is a good investment, but if you're buying now, you're buying a little late.
are you saying we're piece by piece exporting the entire city of detroit?..
yowza! that could be bad cause if down the road all the pieces find themselves and reform like the terminator 2 and return than we could have a seriously angry and vengeful monster city to deal with.
guess it's a matter of perspective, Apurimac. I think so far the NY Times, Washington Post, Rolling Stone, Vanity Fair, the Nation, the Columbia U history department, the John Birch Society (strangely enough) and numerous other lumineries have declared him at least a likely candidate for worst ever.
A Perfect Storm
Falling dollar
Rising energy prices
Credit crunch
High inflation
Negative savings rate
Neverending wars we can't afford
Another PC holiday season
We are at an interesting time in history. Is America for Sale? What does it all mean?
Billions (trillions?) owed by our govt to foreign governments--one in particular, which is communist and known to not reflect our professed values
methinks blaming other countries for our own mess is not terribly productive -- or accurate.
I don't anyone blamed another country of anything. America is for sale, and they are buying it.
...already own it?
^think (insert to read... I don't think anyone...)
i'm just saying: suppose china cashed in their chips with the u.s.?
and/or already own it.
Fortunately, the Chinese don't have much to gain by devaluing the currency of their largest trading partner.
If you are feeling down, just remember that at basically every point in its history, the US has been one step from collapse for one reason or another. It mostly has worked out okay.
They used to say when America coughs, the rest of the world catches a cold. I'm sure there's still truth in that as America is the ONLY net importing country out there. It's a house of cards for sure, but when it falls it will be more than just America that feels the pain.
i have been mapping the index world wide since august... like the big drop in dow jones and seeing how it affect other country.
before Nov, it was China/Hongkong/india that becomes a safe haven.
now, to my surprise, is Russia. check bloomberg.com and see for urself.
what kind of firm is more stable in these troubling times with a recession in sight:
midsize/large firms doing mass housing (the part of the team that might get laid off if the developer stopped the project)
or
small residential firm with small commercial
my sense is that even if the shit hits the fan, people will still be doing smaller projects...house remodels, additions, nickel and dime kind of stuff, but big dollar condo crap is out if the market goes south
any thoughts?
what are they gonna do? Take us home in a shopping cart?
didn't bush recently brag that since our devaluation was starting to affect other markets, the dollar is still the greatest currency?
China has its own issues - namely undervalued currency which keeps them exports strong. As for our currency, one word, "revaluation". Then watch what happens
Worst recession since 1930's
http://www.nysun.com/article/66268
so I'm pulling my investment portfolio out of the market. (retirement accounts stay in) Anyone know how to open a Swiss bank account?
apparently the Koreans are buying up all the real estate in downtown LA...hopefully I can get me some kimchi!!!!!!!!!!!!!
A strategy that one of my early bosses suggested to me during tough periods was to look for firms that did government work. The thought being that to spur the economy the fed would put money into public projects to help things keep going. Just a thought, typically what happens though is that for the general public the discretionary funds that help to by second homes boats and vacations drys up.
sounds like a michael crichton novel. oh wait that one was aobut how the japanese were going to take over amerika.
"what kind of firm is more stable in these troubling times with a recession in sight:"
the firms that will do the best (or, in these times manage to stay afloat) are the ones that offer services to the global market. Everyone else, stay braced!
and frankly, these days, its the work elsewhere thats more 'interesting' anyways
Excuse my doomsday mentality, but when I started this thread it was because I really think we aren't going to have a currency or maybe even a country before long. Dipshit bush doesn't even know what's gonna hit him.
Strawbeary, no need to excuse yourself. I agree to a certain extent, that if we continue on the same path that Shrub started us on, we will certainly not be able to sustain our democracy. Meh, we might not anyway.
See this is what happens when the Daily Show is not on....I get to thinking that the country is going to crumble.
LOL re: the Daily Show comment, DubK! God I miss it.
I don't get the Daily Show at my house. :(
anyone hear how the LAPD is going to identify all the muslim communities in LA???
not to mention the fact that the one export that america still has/had, the entertainment industry, is self destructing as we speak
God mdler....you're right. That is the one exportable industry that we still have left, isn't it?
On a side note, do I get some sort of prize for declaring mdler "right" more than a few of times in a month?
er, "more than a few times in a month", that is. You know what I mean.
when I think solid, reliable an insiteful business news, I think of the NY Sun
Strawbeary, I have similar concerns as you but I think the problem has been a long time coming. Bush hasn't helped things, but isn't the sole reason for the current situation.
Falling dollar - traces back to 1971 when Nixon axed the gold standard. I would even argue it preceeds that to the creation of the Fed Reserve. They're the ones running the printing presses and inflating our currency away.
Rising energy prices - simple supply outstripping demand. Namely growth in Chindia and dropping production in many exporting countries.
Credit crunch - Federal reserve's fault 100%
High inflation - See above
Negative savings rate - Can be partly blamed on bad gov't policy, but bottom line, the fault is on our own backs as we're spending more than we make. Ever heard of $100k student loan debt?
Neverending wars we can't afford - That one you can pin on Bush & Co. That ones a political hot potato but I think most will agree it's indirectly linked to energy prices.
Another PC holiday season - Media
Errr. Every single time I think about the mess that is our country is in, my mind keeps wondering to this little thing called the Fall of the Roman Empire. Scares the be-Jesus out of me. I don't like how my mind keeps comparing the two.
aqua
you are the third person in the past day who has mentioned gold..the other 2 being a friend of mine who is a broker for Vanguard and the LA Times. Apparently people are adding gold to their portfolios
mdlr, wasn't it that the LAPD are trying to figuring out where the terrorists are by tracking falafel sales or something ridiculous like that?
(My wife eats a lot of hummus, should I be concerned?)
and its never a good sign when gold goes up.
FOG
I think that is the idea. Little do they know that Armenians eat a lot of hummus as do the Jews
WTF is LAPD going to do with that kind of data?
methinks someone else is behind this
Despite the entertainment industry's current "hiccup", America still exports these fine products:
1. Military hardware (guns, planes, missiles, etc.) (World's largest exporter too, WOOT!)
2. Vehicles (Fords are very popular with the international mining industry)
3. Steel (?)
4. Electronics (?)
5. Alcohol
6. Cigarettes
7. Fast Food
And much more!
Apparently, we're the 2nd largest exporter next to China, but holy fuck can those Chinese hawk their wares!
Makes me wonder what Europe is doing.
Dont forget computer software, engineering and geotechnical services, aircraft production, satelites ( yes thats a big market) and leagal council. We also educate more people in our state schools than any country anywhere else. We grow more food in Iowa alone than prob the rest of the planet. So we got game. Haters step off.
'cept now my b.c. bud is gonna cost more!
I've very bearish on all currencies. The rampant dollar printing by the Fed essentially exports US inflation to other countries. Meanwhile other countries are expanding the supply of their currency, just not quite as fast. Thus a run-up in the value of the UK pound, Euro, Loonie, and so on. Sarkozy in France has complained, as well Canada about this starting to hurt their exports. Get ready for inflation across the board in all currencies. That's why gold is such a big thing among investors. It's the best hedge against inflation. Just offshoring your investments does nothing if the country you invest in eventually does the same as is happening here at home.
Inflation is very dangerous. Essentially it's what put the Nazis into power in Germany. It can wipe out a lifes savings in no time, making everything else in your life a virtual non-issue. And why I think Fed chairman Bernake can in many ways be more dangerous than George Bush could ever be.
capital doesn't often disappear, it just shifts and moves. our weak dollar pisses off other countries because they're used to selling us their stuff. of course everyone's gonna complain.
but a weak dollar means our stuff is cheaper. our products and our labor. america's trade deficit is going down as a result.
also, it means that our real estate and corporations are a value investment. so to answer your question, yes, america IS for sale, but when has it not been?
but see "high inflation" below for a caveat.
as for rising energy crises, they will spark a short-term real commitment to energy efficiency and sustainability. not a long-term, but a short-term, but if we take two steps forward and one step back (like we have been doing since the 70s), then we're still ahead.
as for a credit crunch, imagine that, paying cash for something.
as for high inflation, that is the #1 concern of the federal governments and its owners, the american rich. while a weak dollar does benefit us somewhat, once a short-term infusion of capital has resulted from that weakness, they'll want to curb inflation no matter what else occurs. but see "wars" below.
as for a negative savings rate, that's just stupid.
never-ending wars we can't afford? i guess some of y'all were busy doing something else during high-school history classes. our war in iraq is clocking in at probably 5 - 6 years, which while longer than world war I and II and the civil war is shorter than the american revolution, which was 8 years (1775-1783) and a helluva lot longer than the vietnam war (1964-1975 technically) -- and just to lob another bomb in here, we've actually accomplished something in iraq as opposed to vietnam, whether your blue-tinted glasses filter it out or not. whether or not we can afford it -- well, one of those benefits of inflation is that the real value of our debt decreases with inflation unless the interest is higher...
all in all, the sun is shining today (at least it is where i am), government has much less to do with your life than it seems, and the smart and strong will always find a way to survive and thrive. never was that accomplished by navel-gazing.
all our $$$ is being shipped to Dubai. It is warm there
I think China is getting a bigger chunk of our $$$....but they happily invest it back into the US via treasuries that keeps our economy propped. And keeps the sheeple shopping at Wal-Mart which starts the viscious cycle all over again.
newsflash...the us economy is not nearly so bad off as people are making it out to be. the lending market is in the process of correcting itself. there will be a lot of losers, many lending firms will go under, but in terms of home prices, we're about at the low water mark or will see it in the next six months. this is a great time to buy and begin capital investments, particularly in the markets that have been hardest hit. we clearly do have a problem with inflation that the fed has been unwilling to address. this is hampering a rebound, but in general i feel very optomistic.
with a weak dollar, gold is a good investment, but if you're buying now, you're buying a little late.
4. Electronics (?)
that's scrap steel (aka detroit) and e-waste
well... we can always take comfort in the fact that we have the Worst. President. Ever.
worse even than james buchanan?
are you saying we're piece by piece exporting the entire city of detroit?..
yowza! that could be bad cause if down the road all the pieces find themselves and reform like the terminator 2 and return than we could have a seriously angry and vengeful monster city to deal with.
guess it's a matter of perspective, Apurimac. I think so far the NY Times, Washington Post, Rolling Stone, Vanity Fair, the Nation, the Columbia U history department, the John Birch Society (strangely enough) and numerous other lumineries have declared him at least a likely candidate for worst ever.
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