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A Perfect Storm

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lletdownl

remember that though if you, your friends or family ever make a mistake or lose a job. im sure you are all brilliant and self sufficient, but the world is a cruel place.

Nov 14, 07 2:01 pm  · 
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Living in Gin

My parents had perfect credit for decades. They lived within their means, and always paid their bills on time. Then my dad got cancer, couldn't work for a few months, and incurred massive medical expenses despite his "generous" insurance coverage (thank you, American healthcare system). As a result, my parents almost lost their house, but were fortunate to be able to make special arrangements with their mortage lender. However, their credit is ruined and it looks like they won't be able to afford to build the modest retirement house they've been dreaming about since they got married.

According to some of the people on this thread, they're a couple of irresponsible morons who deserve to be thrown to the wolves.

Maybe the better option would be for some certain holier-than-thou economic Darwinists to shove their twisted ideology so far up their ass that it never sees the light of day again.

Nov 14, 07 2:26 pm  · 
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Ms Beary

Keep your cool, please. Special arrangements between lenders and good borrowers are great, I'm totally for that. And I'm sorry your parent's credit was ruined. Want my sob story too? I'll spare you.

Nov 14, 07 2:32 pm  · 
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Urbanist

unforunately, the "economic darwinists" Living in Gin mentioned don't practice what the preach. When THEY get overextended, they lobby Congress for earmarks, billion dollar contracts in Iraq and other handouts. In this country, free enterprise is really just a matter of perspective.

Nov 14, 07 4:12 pm  · 
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le bossman

lig, i am sorry about your parent's credit. this is not an example of irresponsibility. my mom's boyfriend was diagnosed with stage three cancer last year, and he didn't have insurance at all. he ended up getting a loan from the hospital to cover his troubles.

Nov 14, 07 7:14 pm  · 
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quizzical

seems to me that we all can learn a lot from this thread -- bad things happen to good people -- bad things happen to stupid people -- sometimes stupid people make out just fine -- sometimes good people do really well too. luck plays a part -- so does preparation.

I've come to believe that in the end, we're all pretty much responsible for our own situation and we cannot depend all that much on others to protect our backs or make up our losses. we each have to make sure we have the insurance we need -- and buy more on our own if our employer's policy isn't strong enough; we each have to put aside a sufficient amount of savings and make sure those savings are invested properly; we each have to decide what we can (and cannot) afford and resist the impulse to acquire more than we should. do I really need that new iPod or should I bump my contributions to my 401(k)? these are personal spending and investment decisions and nobody else can make those decisions for us.

these are some very basic (and conservative) values I'm describing here and they require a lot of discipline ... they're also not nearly as common among the general population today as they were during earlier generations. from a societal standpoint, that's quite frightening to me.

Nov 14, 07 8:18 pm  · 
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quizzical

oh ... and I also want to observe that much of the angst I see in this thread seems to be coming mostly from those of you who may never have really experienced the vagaries of the business cycle before ... the first time you go through a serious downturn in the economy can be a very sobering experience ... there's pain involved and dislocation ... it hurts a lot when you, or a colleague, suffer through a layoff ... and it's really not anybody in particular's fault ... sometimes, it's just what it is ... a fluctuation that nobody at our level can do much about (besides bitch).

seasoned architects (like me) have seen more than our share and we've grown to take them somewhat in stride. we also learned after being burned in the 1st or 2nd that we need to plan for the next one (cause it's going to happen) and we need to start pulling in our horns (i.e. kicking up the marketing effort / collecting those aging receivables / toning down the spending on things we don't really need, etc.) as soon as we start seeing signs that maybe next year won't be as good as the previous.

I actually take a certain comfort in this thread ... it's good to see this sort of discussion here. good luck to you all!

Nov 14, 07 8:28 pm  · 
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Urbanist

yeah... I graduated into the early 90s slump.... Ended up going abroad and staying there for a decade.

In any event, no matter how much personal misery the credit crunch gets its not going to cripple the country on the scale of a depression or even a serious recession by itself. The crux of it is how we respond to it.... If we engage in more Bushian populism... Cheaper credit, loose money supply, lower dollar, our trading partners will eventually be forced to protect against the consquences (on domestic emplyment and exports etc) of them strengthening currencies with protectionist measures and pump priming of their own... And that could trigger a global economic crisis on a scale we haven't seen in generations. We need to contain the collapsing dollar and take the pain that'll come along with that, no matter how bad the domestic credit woes hurt us; cause if we don't start behaving responsibly the whole shebang will start to unravel.

We're just facing a slowdown down.. That's it. But if we respond badly to that slowdown, then and only then will we face that perfect storm.

Nov 15, 07 3:29 am  · 
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i was talking about this in the office with an intern today. i told her i didn't want to spend an inordinate amount of time right now with one particular project (on which we're working in a sort of 'at risk' situation right now) because i feared it might get canceled. she asked 'then what?' so we talked about past times when mere rumors of recession were in the air (and on the radio/tv/papers) and what the implications of such rumors can be: bullish clients can turn around and cancel a project out of nowhere, for no reason except hearsay. that's life.

Nov 15, 07 7:37 am  · 
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vado retro

isn't that how every job is...potentially NOT happening, potentially no work potentially sitting around with your dick in your hand waiting for the axe to fall. thats america baby get used to it.

Nov 15, 07 7:41 am  · 
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aquapura
These are perilous days for the US
Nov 15, 07 1:42 pm  · 
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evilplatypus

Ive always said if I get cancer Id rather just fucking die than be extorted. The fear of death is how the insurance industry and church stay in business.


Now back to subprime - theres no crisis for the lenders - they got the people's equity and their property. Essentially people paid these lenders and got them free property. They will make a second fortune now. The only people out of luck are the people who bought in, not the rest of the economy. In fact - the bail out actualy hurts their bottom lines!

Nov 15, 07 1:48 pm  · 
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evilplatypus

aquapara - click on that guy's further reading button and learn more about who the author, Hamish Mcrae really is - a whiney anti American brit.

Nov 15, 07 2:04 pm  · 
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aquapura

It's not tough to find whiney anti-american journalists, even in America. Regardless I think he makes some good points in the article.

Nov 15, 07 3:40 pm  · 
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ochona

accountability for one's actions is the rock of true conservatism (fiscal or otherwise). the person who wrote "it's all about ME" is exactly right.

now, i won't deny that i can't be a completely free agent in life. i didn't have to pave the road i took to work this morning. i didn't grow my food or grow my coffee or manufacture my car.

but what i did was, i took things that were "mine" (i.e., dollars and cents) and traded them for those things in theoretically mutually beneficial transactions with no unintended adverse consequences to others (if you know who peter singer is, don't bother, i know the arguments against what i just said).

i "earned" my "dollars and cents" providing skills to clients. they "earned" that money by doing likewise and on and on.

i'd be more than happy to support some kind of program that helps people who get foreclosed upon find new accommodation after their coaches turn back into pumpkins. but it's not my fault if someone gets an ARM based on a sign on a telephone pole and then can't pay the bill five years later.

that being said, the equalizer here is the credit score, and you best believe that these lenders report assistance programs to the credit agencies. good luck getting an unsecured $300 credit card after countrywide converts your ARM.

Nov 15, 07 5:28 pm  · 
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lletdownl

i keep getting the impression that fiscal conservatives who continually talk about 'earning' their money, and having to 'work real hard' to pay their mortgage are operating in a vacuum. Yes, in a this economy, theoretically if you work real hard and you earn your money and are smart with it, you're house shouldn't be foreclosed on. Unfortunately, this is not a vacuum. The capitalist system is not some infallible structure god created to solve all problems, and many people have to work real hard to earn even the OPPORTUNITY to make money.

One slip up, one injury, one mistake, and that opportunity is lost.
Im not supporting bailouts for everyone, clearly there must be some cut off for the super-idiots... but to believe that everyone being foreclosed on is getting what they deserve is to be ignorant of the real state of american society... there just aren't that many jobs on the south side of chicago, in nevada, in detroit etc etc etc
just a thought

Nov 15, 07 5:47 pm  · 
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lletdownl

there is a competition for STABILITY in this country... there is competition for even the opportunity to get a job... i dont know how anyone can argue that all those being foreclosed on should have been smarter when there are portions of this country with double digit unemployment rates, 50%+ drop high school drop out rates and full time jobs that dont allow people to subside above poverty lines.

Nov 15, 07 5:50 pm  · 
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SDR

Is it too late to learn form our European cousins ? Yeah, probably, as long as "socialism" is still a dirty word. And, as long as America, all of it, I guess, remains the Wild West -- you know, every man for himself, and may the "best" man win, by hook or by crook ? And isn't it getting worse ? Have you driven lately ? I just saw a young man in a newish Golf honking loud and long at a Datsun pickup that had the temerity to try to get out of a parking space in stop-and-go traffic. Lovely. People making way for each other on the sidewalk ? Not any MORE. . .!

Nov 15, 07 6:41 pm  · 
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sameolddoctor

"aquapara - click on that guy's further reading button and learn more about who the author, Hamish Mcrae really is - a whiney anti American brit."

Thanks for your educated criticism, evilplatypus.

Nov 16, 07 4:13 am  · 
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ochona

first off, i'd be more than happy to vote for a nationalized / government safety net that would include socialized health care which would eliminate some of the precariousness with which much of our society deals. it would be less expensive and more effective than our current system.

but prove to me that someone on the south side of chicago has a RIGHT to own a home. that's what it's about here. i'd argue that someone has a RIGHT to shelter -- i would never want anyone to go homeless from this whole mess -- but a RIGHT to OWN a home? it doesn't exist.

people make mistakes, and mistakes have consequences. most people don't give themselves cancer, but nobody is forced to take out an ARM. there are plenty of rentals in englewood.

Nov 16, 07 10:20 am  · 
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trace™

I agree a bailout is not responsible. There can be compromises, but I don't wanna pay for someone else's mistake.

I could have chosen an ARM when I bought, but didn't. Too risky.



Personally, I am saving, looking for value in the market and looking for deals on real estate. There are always near catastrophes going on, just depends on what the news/market is caught up in on any particular day.

Sad part is, it'll be the rich (traders/large developers) that really profit from this volatility.

Nov 17, 07 10:18 am  · 
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