Are we talking guns, ammo, subsistence farming, euro, dollar complete hyperinflation, people bartering and trading in gold, the combination of economic collaspe and a black swan event? Then I'm in. I just hope I can get internet from my bunker!
Think the exact run down is - “Fire and brimstone coming down from the skies! Rivers and seas boiling!”….“Forty years of darkness! Earthquakes! Volcanoes!”….“The dead rising from the grave!”….“Human sacrifice! Dogs and cats, living together! Mass hysteria!”
Even at scorched earth the internet will somehow be still be working.
carrera, i'm pretty sure i can switch from home brewing beer to moonshine in about an hour for around $50. it's not as good as meth, but if things really goes the shit, i'll get by.
i've read scary things about the economy too. however, my value system might be different enough from yours that it isn't so scary. i don't have as much to lose. if i could spend my life as a hillbilly fishing and poaching deer, i might consider that an upgrade.
also, i think gold has been overly-commoditized. i don't think it's a suitable currency anymore. maybe we'll trade bitcoins or the corgicoin?
i kind of feel like making moonshine isn't all that bad of a back-up plan. we can still design buildings, we'll just go back to sticks instead of studs and leaky thatched roofs instead of leaky titanium roofs. maybe some ultra-green sod houses like they did back in the day. all in all, the profession could use a good catastrophic global economic collapse. i guess my view of 'glass half full' sounds a bit 'half-empty?'
'Shine will be a much more valuable commodity than gold.
The economy is global and it's important to consider the bigger picture. Greece and the EU, recession across Europe, oil dumping by the Saudis on the behalf of the US to destabilize Russia (and Iran, Syria, Yemen, Venezula, etc.) which has immediate consequences and will have serious inflationary shocks when it's over, manipulation of gold prices to prop up the dollar, repatriation of foreign gold held in the US (what, you don't trust us anymore?), various bubbles like sub-prime auto loans and yet another real estate bubble - this one upscale, the 2016 election cycle (what better way to further unseat DEMs than to crash the economy under BO?), real poverty and unemployment that can't be hidden any longer (does anyone really believe any of the shit the media shovels out at this point?), etc., etc. Remember Domino Theory? Everything is connected.
Look at the calendar, we're due for the next market cycle correction (aka pump and dump crash) where everything goes to hell and the already way too-rich further increase their holdings. The DOW has more than doubled in five years, historically unprecedented. Wealth accumulation by a tiny minority is off the charts and accelerating. Buddha said the wealth of a few is made up of the poverty of many.
I do think toast is right that it won't be anything like the 'great recession' (what was so great about it?), I think it will be worse. In the Hamptons they are partying like it's the end of the world with disposable $3-20 million spec houses on every available scrap of land.
All of which is why I think that now is the time not to go further out on a limb, but to get out of debt to and try to make it easier to hold on to what you have when the shit hits the fan again.
Then again maybe I'm wrong and the .01% have figured out how to make things work for the rest of us, but I really don't think so. The bailouts worked for them before, when they were too big to fail. No prosecutions, not even an investigation. The fox is running the henhouse. Time to do it again.
the parts of dodd-frank that haven't been removed are being ignored. that helps too. the banks were supposed to have plans to 'wind down' in the event of bankruptcy, so they won't have to be bailed out again, but it sounds like they don't.
it's not only getting out of debt. don't be greedy. the rich idiots can have their broken economy, but the rest of us have to tip waiters and pay mechanics a fair living wage. without money circulating, the concept of money breaks.
Student loans is a tough one, easier to get out of paying taxes, but is possible…. Funny how public servants, teachers and the medical profession have forgiveness programs, where is the AIA lobby? The “Pay as you earn” program has forgiveness benefits… Obama talks about it… just need to consolidate, seek lower rates & monthly payments… also some employers help…. Doubt any are architects do but should.
Carrera, there are attempts by the AIA for some loan forgiveness, but it's limited to MArch. All Congress needs to do, is to allow me, to refinance my student loans to a lower rate.
toast - all kinds of dough, mostly US banker, lawyer, politico, industrialist and celebrity. Not a big foreign presence, but they are here too, mostly rentals. A rapacious local scumbag mega developer recently had a $2500/plate fundraiser for John Boner.
That pay as you earn model is tricky, though. Being a teacher, I'm eligible, but I declined. Why? Because last year my "adjusted gross income" would have allowed me to actually NOT pay a monthly amount, although then interest continues continues to build. Each year, the payment gets adjusted, according to that AGI, and this year, I would've paid double, plus all that interest that continued to build ontop of itself.
I only attend the $300,000 a plate Hollywood Obama fundraisers myself.
money well-spent volunteer. while there are a lot of legitimate criticisms of the current administration as well as the last few congressional classes, obama did push a very real, if small, step towards protecting net neutrality and it's good for us little folk to give something back when we can. however, obama's campaigning is done. maybe attending hillary's fund raisers would be more appropriate, or even better use that money to convince elizabeth warren to run.
sarah, isn't there something where if you stay broke for a certain amount time, the loans are dropped?
In South America when you attend fund-raisers there are lovelies in Spandex outfits mingling with the guests. Here in the US $300,000 gets you Hillary in a Spandex outfit. For $400,000 you don't have to attend.
curtkram, thank you for the reminder that we have to pay others as fairly as we are able, too. I'm not rich but I'm a really good tipper and I never, ever try to haggle anyone down to a low price. Everyone deserves to be paid fairly for work, and I thank my lucky stars every day that I'm not waiting tables or moving mulch to earn my pay.
Carrera, the National Design Services Act is the bill the AIA supports to provide student loan forgiveness to graduates who work in a non-profit community corporation of some kind. The bill language is not fully crafted yet, but it would be very similar to TFA and rural doctor-type programs that already exist.
I would like to see the German model adapted - they have (had?) draft for men, 6mth minimum for active military service, 2 yrs for civilian service. Maybe the loan forgiveness could follow that model for all students: 1/2 price of all military service forgiveness (which still isn't much - $20k these days for 4 yrs?). For some reason I thought working for the federal agencies has forgiveness (the ones for teachers isn't much - just Pell grants I think).
I don't think loans are 'enforceable' after 25yrs from date of issue (if you consolidate the clock resets); so IBR and ICR have forgiveness provision explicitly stating after 25yrs you will have the balance forgiven (as taxable in come, but that's better than the balance).
The tuition rate hikes have been pretty ridiculous, but maybe it correlates with lower interest rates? Was the rise as fast when loans were 9%, 12% or higher? I know a school's ability to land federal loans to students is affected by repayment (more defaults, the less money they can give); so maybe that will be the straw that breaks the back of some of these schools... it would be nice if universities that can reshuffled their budgets to move money from big earning programs into the lesser ones (Princeton used to do this?).
Sarah, guess we were talking about what to do if you got into financial trouble.
Curt, yes there are ways to get them dropped if you can prove that there is no chance you’ll ever be able to pay them back….hard to prove on the face of it, but maybe not if you’re an architect:)
Sarah, I've had similar issues with the various loan "relief" plans. Instead I'm just trying to power through it—the last 3 times I've gotten a raise the additional income has gone right to the loan payments, as well as any bonuses I receive. I'm on track to finish the big bad grad school loan this summer, 4 years early. It earns enough interest that it keeps me up at night, and I couldn't see a future for myself that includes things like home ownership or kids without getting it off my back, so I've made sacrifices to make it happen.
carrera, i was referring specifically to the new income based repayment plan. if you don't have your loan paid off in 25 years, as i understand it, the loan is forgiven. i don't know much about the program though. i'm pretty sure you don't have to prove anything, just show someone how much money you make so they can adjust your payments accordingly.
Top of the morn! Actually it slipped away while I was running energy calculations for a residence..what a wasted day, so now I think I'll go Green Beer Drinking!
The forgiveness part is 10 years, if you're in public service, such as teaching. But I think I might be done by then, and my current payments are low enough on the only eligible loan I have that it's silly for me to go with it.
I'm sorry for your loss, Miles. I'm in Phoenix spending the next few days with my parents. Every visit with them reminds me that some day I'll lose them. The thought panics me.
Olaf managed to have good conversation with Lebbeus. I miss his writing. Knowledgeable, compassionate, always willing to educate, and less egotism than other scholars.
I spent the weekend sorting and packing up my grandmothers house. She's still with us, technically, but she is no longer herself; only a facade of her former self. She had such great taste, surrounding herself with beautiful things, and everything always had to be just so. Digging through the past, and realizing what wonderful, interesting people both my grandmother, and my father were, and that I will never get to know them as an adult, or see them as others saw them.... I wish I could've known them in their prime, and been aware enough to appreciate them as individuals instead of family members. It was tough, to say the least. And then there is a part of me that wants to hold on to EVERYTHING in some strange effort to recreate the past, as though if I could surround myself with her dishes and table cloths, and even wear her clothes, I could embody her for a moment, and know her, even be her. Maybe I should begin keeping a journal so my children will be able to know me, when that day comes. Facing the past, and how you can never go back is hard.
Sarah, I bounce back and forth between wanting to hold onto objects that are connected to memories and wanting to purge everything from my life and not assign any importance to physical objects. But I think the latter is not a healthy attitude for an architect to have.
I had a great day today critiquing 3rd year students at Arizona State. Great project, some good work and some not - third year seems to be a year when it all really starts to come together or not.
I'll tell you this: if you ever turn on the radio in Phoenix you will hear a huge number of stations but all of them are either country, Latin, or Christian rock.
I'm with you Donna on that thought. I used to scramble up Sqaw Peak on morning when I couldn't head out in to the Superstition Mountains. It was about six blocks from where I hung my hat. I always enjoyed it no matter how many people were out there doing the same thing. However hiking in the Superstition Mountains was always a great experience.
Thinking back to all my years in Tucson, when I was in school most of my time was spent living just beyond Silver Bell Road. Always had a great deck or patio looking back to the East. I love to sip a beer and watch the Summer Storms Roll in across the Valley.
Tomorrow is the last day of my internship, I'm going to miss it. I got to do actually meaningful work with a great group on people... Now I have to remember how to be a student, and try to recall my fading calculus knowledge...
Donna, it was the best first internship I could have asked for.
My last day was hectic! Had to finish up a dozen details and some gravity calcs before I left and prepare the tasks I couldn't finish for next intern to jump on, plus train the new guy on our drafting standards. But the boss took all the interns out to lunch on him! (Chicken parm pizza, mmm...)
Sorry - for everyone's loss, whether that's an actual person or the bittersweet feelings of melancholy and nostalgia. Most times one follow the other, I guess...
Maybe this is for the other thread, but I am very much enamored by the song, Not Gonna Miss You. I challenge you to really listen to the song while thinking of those near and dear to you, or those you've lost, and not cry. Song is by Glen Campbell, to his wife, written as he is losing his mind to Alzheimer's...
Six weeks, 3 interviews, 1 mini-novel about myself later....... Just getting ready to head out to negotiate a "senior management" job offer... Wish me luck.
Thread Central
Are we talking guns, ammo, subsistence farming, euro, dollar complete hyperinflation, people bartering and trading in gold, the combination of economic collaspe and a black swan event? Then I'm in. I just hope I can get internet from my bunker!
Forgot to mention, "Human sacrifice, dogs and cats living together... Mass hysteria!" Thank you Dr. Venkman.
Miles, please do...
Think the exact run down is - “Fire and brimstone coming down from the skies! Rivers and seas boiling!”….“Forty years of darkness! Earthquakes! Volcanoes!”….“The dead rising from the grave!”….“Human sacrifice! Dogs and cats, living together! Mass hysteria!”
Even at scorched earth the internet will somehow be still be working.
carrera, i'm pretty sure i can switch from home brewing beer to moonshine in about an hour for around $50. it's not as good as meth, but if things really goes the shit, i'll get by.
i've read scary things about the economy too. however, my value system might be different enough from yours that it isn't so scary. i don't have as much to lose. if i could spend my life as a hillbilly fishing and poaching deer, i might consider that an upgrade.
also, i think gold has been overly-commoditized. i don't think it's a suitable currency anymore. maybe we'll trade bitcoins or the corgicoin?
there is no down-side to growing a garden.
I'd be interested Miles. Along lines of wurdan, curtkram and Roubini...?
i kind of feel like making moonshine isn't all that bad of a back-up plan. we can still design buildings, we'll just go back to sticks instead of studs and leaky thatched roofs instead of leaky titanium roofs. maybe some ultra-green sod houses like they did back in the day. all in all, the profession could use a good catastrophic global economic collapse. i guess my view of 'glass half full' sounds a bit 'half-empty?'
'Shine will be a much more valuable commodity than gold.
The economy is global and it's important to consider the bigger picture. Greece and the EU, recession across Europe, oil dumping by the Saudis on the behalf of the US to destabilize Russia (and Iran, Syria, Yemen, Venezula, etc.) which has immediate consequences and will have serious inflationary shocks when it's over, manipulation of gold prices to prop up the dollar, repatriation of foreign gold held in the US (what, you don't trust us anymore?), various bubbles like sub-prime auto loans and yet another real estate bubble - this one upscale, the 2016 election cycle (what better way to further unseat DEMs than to crash the economy under BO?), real poverty and unemployment that can't be hidden any longer (does anyone really believe any of the shit the media shovels out at this point?), etc., etc. Remember Domino Theory? Everything is connected.
Look at the calendar, we're due for the next market cycle correction (aka pump and dump crash) where everything goes to hell and the already way too-rich further increase their holdings. The DOW has more than doubled in five years, historically unprecedented. Wealth accumulation by a tiny minority is off the charts and accelerating. Buddha said the wealth of a few is made up of the poverty of many.
I do think toast is right that it won't be anything like the 'great recession' (what was so great about it?), I think it will be worse. In the Hamptons they are partying like it's the end of the world with disposable $3-20 million spec houses on every available scrap of land.
All of which is why I think that now is the time not to go further out on a limb, but to get out of debt to and try to make it easier to hold on to what you have when the shit hits the fan again.
Then again maybe I'm wrong and the .01% have figured out how to make things work for the rest of us, but I really don't think so. The bailouts worked for them before, when they were too big to fail. No prosecutions, not even an investigation. The fox is running the henhouse. Time to do it again.
I don't know anything about moonshine, but I brewed some beer yesterday with the husband. That's working out pretty well for us so far.
Miles, thanks for doing that, somebody had to. Best advice is getting out of debt, which I know is hard to do....
does that include student loans?
the parts of dodd-frank that haven't been removed are being ignored. that helps too. the banks were supposed to have plans to 'wind down' in the event of bankruptcy, so they won't have to be bailed out again, but it sounds like they don't.
it's not only getting out of debt. don't be greedy. the rich idiots can have their broken economy, but the rest of us have to tip waiters and pay mechanics a fair living wage. without money circulating, the concept of money breaks.
Student loans is a tough one, easier to get out of paying taxes, but is possible…. Funny how public servants, teachers and the medical profession have forgiveness programs, where is the AIA lobby? The “Pay as you earn” program has forgiveness benefits… Obama talks about it… just need to consolidate, seek lower rates & monthly payments… also some employers help…. Doubt any are architects do but should.
@miles - re: hamptons properties - are those local buyers or wealthy foreign nationals looking for places to park their money?
Carrera, there are attempts by the AIA for some loan forgiveness, but it's limited to MArch. All Congress needs to do, is to allow me, to refinance my student loans to a lower rate.
toast - all kinds of dough, mostly US banker, lawyer, politico, industrialist and celebrity. Not a big foreign presence, but they are here too, mostly rentals. A rapacious local scumbag mega developer recently had a $2500/plate fundraiser for John Boner.
I only attend the $300,000 a plate Hollywood Obama fundraisers myself.
That pay as you earn model is tricky, though. Being a teacher, I'm eligible, but I declined. Why? Because last year my "adjusted gross income" would have allowed me to actually NOT pay a monthly amount, although then interest continues continues to build. Each year, the payment gets adjusted, according to that AGI, and this year, I would've paid double, plus all that interest that continued to build ontop of itself.
I only attend the $300,000 a plate Hollywood Obama fundraisers myself.
money well-spent volunteer. while there are a lot of legitimate criticisms of the current administration as well as the last few congressional classes, obama did push a very real, if small, step towards protecting net neutrality and it's good for us little folk to give something back when we can. however, obama's campaigning is done. maybe attending hillary's fund raisers would be more appropriate, or even better use that money to convince elizabeth warren to run.
sarah, isn't there something where if you stay broke for a certain amount time, the loans are dropped?
In South America when you attend fund-raisers there are lovelies in Spandex outfits mingling with the guests. Here in the US $300,000 gets you Hillary in a Spandex outfit. For $400,000 you don't have to attend.
curtkram, thank you for the reminder that we have to pay others as fairly as we are able, too. I'm not rich but I'm a really good tipper and I never, ever try to haggle anyone down to a low price. Everyone deserves to be paid fairly for work, and I thank my lucky stars every day that I'm not waiting tables or moving mulch to earn my pay.
Carrera, the National Design Services Act is the bill the AIA supports to provide student loan forgiveness to graduates who work in a non-profit community corporation of some kind. The bill language is not fully crafted yet, but it would be very similar to TFA and rural doctor-type programs that already exist.
For $400,000 you don't have to attend.
also, money definitely well spent. some things you can't unsee.
I would like to see the German model adapted - they have (had?) draft for men, 6mth minimum for active military service, 2 yrs for civilian service. Maybe the loan forgiveness could follow that model for all students: 1/2 price of all military service forgiveness (which still isn't much - $20k these days for 4 yrs?). For some reason I thought working for the federal agencies has forgiveness (the ones for teachers isn't much - just Pell grants I think).
I don't think loans are 'enforceable' after 25yrs from date of issue (if you consolidate the clock resets); so IBR and ICR have forgiveness provision explicitly stating after 25yrs you will have the balance forgiven (as taxable in come, but that's better than the balance).
The tuition rate hikes have been pretty ridiculous, but maybe it correlates with lower interest rates? Was the rise as fast when loans were 9%, 12% or higher? I know a school's ability to land federal loans to students is affected by repayment (more defaults, the less money they can give); so maybe that will be the straw that breaks the back of some of these schools... it would be nice if universities that can reshuffled their budgets to move money from big earning programs into the lesser ones (Princeton used to do this?).
Sarah, guess we were talking about what to do if you got into financial trouble.
Curt, yes there are ways to get them dropped if you can prove that there is no chance you’ll ever be able to pay them back….hard to prove on the face of it, but maybe not if you’re an architect:)
Sarah, I've had similar issues with the various loan "relief" plans. Instead I'm just trying to power through it—the last 3 times I've gotten a raise the additional income has gone right to the loan payments, as well as any bonuses I receive. I'm on track to finish the big bad grad school loan this summer, 4 years early. It earns enough interest that it keeps me up at night, and I couldn't see a future for myself that includes things like home ownership or kids without getting it off my back, so I've made sacrifices to make it happen.
carrera, i was referring specifically to the new income based repayment plan. if you don't have your loan paid off in 25 years, as i understand it, the loan is forgiven. i don't know much about the program though. i'm pretty sure you don't have to prove anything, just show someone how much money you make so they can adjust your payments accordingly.
Yesterday I Tweeted "Muncie (Indiana) is all aflutter as Thom Mayne is coming to lecture!"
I got a response from an alum that said "Let's be honest, a tiny corner of that craptastic town is aflutter."
I feel as if the scope of aflutterness over AZP's plagiarism scandal is even smaller. Good heavens, who cares.
For real.
Anyway, I thought Wikipedia wasn't viewed as a credible source because it's so easily edited. I guess that's no longer true?
think of it as democratization of truth.
Top of the morn! Actually it slipped away while I was running energy calculations for a residence..what a wasted day, so now I think I'll go Green Beer Drinking!
something about wikipedia?
someone stop me... I think I've opened another cut & paste war with our resident expert on every-subject because he has an internet connection.
Just returned from my father-in-law's funeral. A reminder of what's important in life.
Sorry to hear of your and mrs miles Loss. It is always hard to loose a parent. Let us remember what is important in life.
Woods
Brilliant blog. Thanks for sharing.
good evening all. off to bed.
@beta are you saying Mark Primack is @Olaf?
Sorry, Miles.
I spent the weekend sorting and packing up my grandmothers house. She's still with us, technically, but she is no longer herself; only a facade of her former self. She had such great taste, surrounding herself with beautiful things, and everything always had to be just so. Digging through the past, and realizing what wonderful, interesting people both my grandmother, and my father were, and that I will never get to know them as an adult, or see them as others saw them.... I wish I could've known them in their prime, and been aware enough to appreciate them as individuals instead of family members. It was tough, to say the least. And then there is a part of me that wants to hold on to EVERYTHING in some strange effort to recreate the past, as though if I could surround myself with her dishes and table cloths, and even wear her clothes, I could embody her for a moment, and know her, even be her. Maybe I should begin keeping a journal so my children will be able to know me, when that day comes. Facing the past, and how you can never go back is hard.
Congrats CD!
Sarah, I bounce back and forth between wanting to hold onto objects that are connected to memories and wanting to purge everything from my life and not assign any importance to physical objects. But I think the latter is not a healthy attitude for an architect to have.
I had a great day today critiquing 3rd year students at Arizona State. Great project, some good work and some not - third year seems to be a year when it all really starts to come together or not.
I'll tell you this: if you ever turn on the radio in Phoenix you will hear a huge number of stations but all of them are either country, Latin, or Christian rock.
I'm with you Donna on that thought. I used to scramble up Sqaw Peak on morning when I couldn't head out in to the Superstition Mountains. It was about six blocks from where I hung my hat. I always enjoyed it no matter how many people were out there doing the same thing. However hiking in the Superstition Mountains was always a great experience.
Thinking back to all my years in Tucson, when I was in school most of my time was spent living just beyond Silver Bell Road. Always had a great deck or patio looking back to the East. I love to sip a beer and watch the Summer Storms Roll in across the Valley.
Tomorrow is the last day of my internship, I'm going to miss it. I got to do actually meaningful work with a great group on people... Now I have to remember how to be a student, and try to recall my fading calculus knowledge...
Donna, it was the best first internship I could have asked for. My last day was hectic! Had to finish up a dozen details and some gravity calcs before I left and prepare the tasks I couldn't finish for next intern to jump on, plus train the new guy on our drafting standards. But the boss took all the interns out to lunch on him! (Chicken parm pizza, mmm...)
Somebody better figure out how to slow these guys down or the world is going to be filled up with this crap.....https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=veNf-bz99cI
Sorry - for everyone's loss, whether that's an actual person or the bittersweet feelings of melancholy and nostalgia. Most times one follow the other, I guess...
Maybe this is for the other thread, but I am very much enamored by the song, Not Gonna Miss You. I challenge you to really listen to the song while thinking of those near and dear to you, or those you've lost, and not cry. Song is by Glen Campbell, to his wife, written as he is losing his mind to Alzheimer's...
Six weeks, 3 interviews, 1 mini-novel about myself later....... Just getting ready to head out to negotiate a "senior management" job offer... Wish me luck.
good luck, mighty!
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