things will be stagnant for a while, guessing architecture, as a profession, won't be in a hiring mode until there is accessibly credit out there for new construction, which is nowhere in sight at this point
Everyone at my work (small workplace) told to stay home for a while, till work comes in. We had avoided doing this earlier, but have to bit the bullet now.
Reports are showing that we are teetering on the edge of the economy tanking again. Now that most of the tax-incentives and home-buyer credits, etc have run out, the little bit of recovery is proving to have only been temporary. With the vast amounts of vacant commercial and residential properties available, banks are not exactly friendly with the loans which, aside from medical, leaves state and government work. There isn't enough of that work to go around and everyone is competing for what little scraps of that there is. Pretty soon even that work is going to run dry as states grapple with massive budget deficits and cut as much construction spending as possible with most of the necessary construction expenditures really having very little to do with architecture (roads, bridges, improvements, etc).
I think part of the problem is that most people are expecting that things will return to what they were like pre-recession and that seems to be less likely the longer this persists. Most of the stimulus efforts seem to ignore that fact, instead rewarding consumers to repeat the same purchasing habits that contributed (because I don't think there is just one cause of this all) to this situation in the first place. Add to that the general feeling of resentment (economy, politics, unemployment) that has polarized every issue to an us-vs-them gridlock, the outlook for positive growth looks more and more grim everyday.
Bigger picture: We are experiencing the same trends in the broader economy that the Rust Belt experienced 30 years ago in the industrial economy; Foreign competition for jobs yes, but capital more so. The return on investment overseas is greater than here. Asset deflation that once rendered Industrial properties of the most expensive tracts of land in places like Gary, IN. become quite literally toxic assets by the 1980s and cant even be given away. Increases in automation and computer controlled efficiency lead to massive labor reductions at steel plants. Huge labor surpluses now affecting the FIRE industries of Finance, Real Estate and Insurance. Its pretty bad folks, we really should have listened to Perot in '92.
Practices look abroad as double dip looms
14 August 2010
"Fears the industry is now heading into a second recession are prompting a growing number of jittery practices to scour the globe in the hope of filling vacant UK order books.
This week the industry suffered a double blow with the news on Wednesday that the number of architects out of work is on the rise after 10 months of going backwards – with July’s figure of 1,175 up 11.5% on the previous month.
Just 24 hours earlier a RIBA trends survey of more than 200 practices predicted a double-dip recession was now “almost certain”."
I do know of an office that supposedly has not fired anyone since the recession started i wonder how they did it? they say overseas investments helped them out, then there is another that did do a lot of firings a year ago now it has not fired anyone yet. if what you are all predicting to be true its time for all of us to jump ship.
I think it might be that time. I am currently planning to be out of the profession within a year. Anyone else leaving? It might be great when we get to the other side, but I don't think I can wait it out any longer.
I'm employed, I love architecture, but I cant afford to be an architect anymore. When your friends and family and younger siblings are taking their families on vacation or buying that house, dog, car etc. and your still forgoing lunch so you can pay your rent and loans like some college kid even though your closer to 40 than college, its time to get to get a real job, one that pays grown up wages.
You do realize when people throw around the phrase "the market will reorganize itself," I surely hope you understand what that actually means.
A reorganization (both in vague economic terms and in the field of program evaluation) simply means this:
Shitcan everything that sucks.
Everyone is quick to blame two out of three things:
1) The perceived inability of management to act rationally or fairly
2) The economy
But... WAIT!... what's this third thing?
3) Employees.
Yes, you're only as good as your product. If your product frankly is awful and your work isn't demand (i.e., people going for cheaper and or better), there's not much of anything that can help you.
Frankly, there's a few (not certainly the majority) of architecture firms putting out big profits and or are growing and or have a continuous workload.
Not everyone can be a winner. Sometimes, the smartest business move is a dose of honesty. And you certainly can't fix anything without admitting that you frankly suck.
Still hear about local firms (Miami, FL) laying people off, and former 80+ person firms down to a handful. Just a few weeks ago a decent local firm (NBWW) was hit with a big round of lay-offs.
Things are by no way great, nor will they be for a while...but...
We finally have a 3-4 month backlog of work and the projects that are well capitalized. We have some local work (Miami) but the majority of the work is international (middle east, central/south america, caribbean, china). Across the firm things are picking up, and we are actually hiring in our LA, DC, and Shanghai offices.
so you suck unicorn? aren't you unemployed? i think a little sympathy is ok to have the day these people walk out and have to think about supporting families with no job....get over yourself. this economy has taken all the competition out of it. there are plenty of shitty architects left, and PLENTY of great ones have been let go. perhaps some snide comments can be handled tomorrow, but i was trying to commiserate a little since the wound is still raw. this was a good friend of mine, and he has a young daughter.
I'm lightly employed through other means (mostly doing things for other people who are far too lazy to do things on their own).
But I consider myself FUNemployed! At the very least, I am grossly underemployed.
In fact, people like me (I think Clerith Cutestory falls into this role a bit-- sorry for unnecessary inclusion!) do not participate in this economy and therefore have no real net impact (positive or negative) to the economy
But I have never claimed to have not sucked. I think in the last week... I have claimed to have sucked at least three times.
I'm pretty awful at everything-- but I've never been able to prove that I am awful or not awful at anything other than at my previous jobs.
But good friends, people with families? Those are not things that move the bottom line. Sorry!
But seriously... if you can't make money in architecture, you're (from CAD monkey to boss) doing something wrong.
At the very least, your job is this:
-- make some drawings that can sneak past an urban planner and permitting
-- make some renders or watercolors that get banks and investors all hot and wet
-- treat the client with respect and build something that falls somewhere in or near their vision
...
-- and then make sure it is built well enough to not leak, catch fire or fall down within 10 years (or however long your liability window is).
I logged in specifically to tell Unicorn to go tickle his panda knob. Leave the 'discussioning' to grownups. Now go sketchup your momma. Again.
I got a call today telling me I was their second choice for the position I interviewed for. Sorry! 'Risk management' was the skill that won them over.
These are desperate times. I wish architecture wasn't this mythical profession that noone knows anything about. I would so gladly make a vertical shift to another field; only to be told 'oh, we don't need bridge designers right now". Fuck me.
There have been so many comments and it has been made clear and should be common knowledge to anyone who has been working in architecture that if you were let go, it was not because you "Suck", in fact in my last office the people who "sucked" kept their jobs, it was blatantly obvious to all of us. In a lot of cases the people with families were fired, for no other reason than that they could not contribute to the office Marketing efforts. If this economy picks up I hope those firms have exactly the same people they haven't fired.
guys/gals, like i said in my oRiginal post..."Things are by no way great, nor will they be for a while"
just trying to stay a little optimistic...yes, the situation sucKs!
Lay-offs are still happening, and will continue depending on what sector your firm is in. we were hit very hard very quickly...but have been stable for over a year and work is picking up (slowly)
I stocked up on my "cheap scotch" while travelling to panama for work..."old parr" and "Something Special" are both great and at $14 a bottle duty free, they are a bargain!!
J3 are you at RTKL? sounds familiar... Miami-DC-Shanghai... sadly they shuttered the Madrid office and laid off/made redundant nearly half the London office... not to mention shut down the landscape architecture studio in DC and had 5 full rounds of layoffs... but if work is picking up then more power to em.
anyways, I AM in DC. i was laid off for 8 months, got a job at one firm, and it seems as soon as i got that job i started getting calls for interviews at firms i had sent my stuff to back in March/April. i just got another offer at a better firm, as well as an interview at a GREAT firm I was just able to get lined up. i don't want to say things are picking up, because i don't think they are by any means... but when sh*t first hit the fan no one was even willing to interview ANYBODY. everyone who was laid off before me (i was a last rounder) has gotten jobs. i know this isn't replicated across the country.
in bad form, however, are firms who really didn't need to lay off anybody, but did so because they started getting resumes from people better than they had in their office. i actually had an interviewer tell me this during an interview.
I'm not sure what the next 6-12 months hold, I think the economy could go in a number of directions either down, middling or up. The main issue troubling our economy is whether the american consumer can lead us to "good times" once again, but sadly it seems like everyone is still paying off the debt of the last two decades. It's hard to fathom what else will give the economy the needed jolt in order for us to return to what we are accustomed to as a good economy, i.e, 3-4% growth.
The problem for architecture right now is really a matter of how firms have planned for the near future. While the cuts have been made, things scaled back, and new work found or not, in general most firms probably were hoping for a better outlook by now. The question I have is whether this recession leads to new business practices in the future. Will we stop throwing away our economic capital in pursuit of our vanity, prestige, etc...
@+i, as someone also in the DC market, I'm curious what firms you are starting to hear back from? I've just started getting a few calls, even had an interview or 2 recently, just appear to be in that holding pattern that most find themselves in.
the simple economics say this: construction (and all related industries) are approx. 1/9th of the total u.s. economy, or 11%. if construction is down even 25% (i think that number's closer to 40%, but am going with the agc numbers) from its norm, we're already +/- 3% of the overall gdp. that means the rest of the economy has to grow at 6-7% to hit a 3-4% target growth. it ain't going to happen. there's nothing else that is enough of a driver to help spur that kind of growth, especially since consumers don't have a free atm in the form of rising house prices, nor do commercial developers have the ability to generate the kinds of deal leverage they were used to.
bottom line - right now, there's too much supply, no real demand, and no real appetite from lenders to build anything new. every state government is stretched thin beyond thin. this is very likely a scenario that will persist for the next 5 years (according to the banker i had breakfast with this morning).
granted, i'm painting with very broad strokes - there will be pockets of opportunity, a few deals that go forward, etc. it's not like all work has stopped. but the reality is we won't get back, in terms of numbers, to anything close to 2005-06 numbers for at least 5-10 years. if anything, i'd argue that we still have more contraction coming (my reason for posting this on this thread). there need to be more mergers of firms and generally more thinning out before we get to a bottom equilibrium. this applies to the whole a/e/c market. after that, we'll see what shakes out.
i haven't contributed to any of the 'lay off' threads, but i do now what to share the state of my former office.
i'd been there for 7 year. most of that time we hovered around 30 architects, peaking in 2006/7 with about 50.
now there is 4 architects left.
4 architects, plus 3 partners, 2 office staff!
Please give some consideration before moving here. Things are not a whole lot better than other places and I can't anticipate they will get entirely better over the next two years. The biggest misconception is that every firm does government work -- not entirely true as there are many big corporations here and many firms have been doing corporate interiors. Also over the past decade, DC has grown significantly and many projects to control urban blight caused firms to reinvent themselves into mix-use urban infill kinds of firms. One the floor fell out of that many firms could not sustain themselves and could not go back to doing their bread and butter government jobs. My last firm in DC was like this and it stung them BAD. I jumped ship as soon as I saw the writing on the wall.
I currently work in DC. My organization has been steady and we hope to secure some key projects that can keep us all stay busy for the remainder of the year and into FY11. We are not hiring right now mainly because we are in the process of co-locating three of our offices in the metro area into one office with a total staff of around 350. This has all been in part from M&As that have happened over the past two years. But we are also not hiring because some of our other offices around the country have been struggling and have been coming here to help. So we have been doing a lot of inter-office shuffling when we can. I trust other firms with multiple offices have been doing this as well.
Just about every firm I know (including the one I'm currently at) had layoffs -- some firms were hit hard (about 50% or more of the staff) and some pretty light like anywhere from 1-5 people. The heaviest layoffs came around late 2008 to early and mid 2009. but I haven't really heard any these days -- I imagine that's because there just aint anymore people to lay off. Some firms I know of have been hit with problems lately in which they over-fired people when things were tough and now scrambling to get some of their talent back.
The other thing about DC. It is CRAZY expensive here. Every corner you turn you will be hit up with some obnoxious fee, charge, or service.... So unnececary for such a lousy planned city.
Rent here for a one bedroom in the metro area that is near the metro could range anywhere from $900 (if you are the luckiest person on earth) to upward around $1800 without utilities.
The caveat is that if you make over a 40k a year, you cannot rent some of the places that have income restrictions. It's pretty stupid actually since we are practically borderline susbsitence level when it comes to finances... :(
In DC itself there are some nice new areas but most student and young professionals live around capitol hill. And they mostly room with others and some could be flea-infested dumps. Other young professionals who have some loot to throw around live in Clarendon neighborhood of Arlington which is a very fun place.
Most young architects like myself have moved out to the metro accecible burbs to avoid some of these obnoxious rent situations. Currently I live with a roomate and pay half of what I was paying in my previous situation.
I need to save money for some other more important things down the stretch.
Overall DC isn;t bad. It's a decent place (not sure if I would really call it a real city) but there is never a lack of things to do and there are a lot of young people here. I've met some really great people. The urbanity of DC proper is improving but it still has a lot work....
I think you would be hard pressed to find any city that had:
a: decent architecture scene (i.e. creative offices, exciting work)
b: affordable rent (in comparison to earned salary)
c: affordable other expenses
d: young people / youthful culture
e: plenty of things to do / vibrant nightlife / urban, etc.
What the world needs now is jobs, sweet jobs
It's the only thing that there's just too little of
What the world needs now is jobs, sweet jobs,
No not just for some but for everyone.
When you're alone
And life is making you lonely,
You can always go on funemplyment.
When you've got worries,
All the noise and the hurry
Seems to help, I know, funemployment.
Funemployed, things'll be great when you're
Funemployed, no finer place for sure,
Funemployed, everything's waiting for you
"I think you would be hard pressed to find any city that had:
a: decent architecture scene (i.e. creative offices, exciting work)
b: affordable rent (in comparison to earned salary)
c: affordable other expenses
d: young people / youthful culture
e: plenty of things to do / vibrant nightlife / urban, etc.
i'm actually really quite curious about life in china, evan - from the little written exposure i have on it from people on archinect, it seems like it could be a great experience, if you're in a major city. i think, though, i could never make myself pack up and go knowing that i'd be working really intense hours. is that the case across the board for firms that hire westerners?
I can't wrap my head around moving to China, which is probably why I will not be working anytime in the next few years since it seems like all of the jobs are there.
There are plenty of new "emerging" markets, China is just the biggest (by far).
Probably in many of those (specially when you consider Shanghai, HK, Shenzhen and Beijing that at this point must be packed with Western architects) you will have little competence, so you will be able to command better working conditions, whether it is salaries/working hours or whatever. Probably you won't have either the hype of Shanghai.
dmc... i don't think it's as simples as saying Firm XYZ is hiring, go apply, and get the job. Or looking up on the AIA website. Both of those methods were fine a few years ago, but now firms around here may or may not be publicly advertising their open positions. I know for me, this position I am about to begin was not an advertised position. I sent my stuff blindly to them back in April. Some of the firm websites have a place you can make an account and upload your stuff- that is how I've snagged this other interview....
The other thing to realize is that, at least in my experience so far with three offers and 7 interviews, your previous firm names matter- A LOT. If you worked at a large firm, you personally did some pretty good design work, AND you have a reference that was your boss- it helps immensely. It lets the prospective employer know you weren't a slacker while you were there, and even if you were laid off, there are no hard feelings and you still have a professional relationship. Every time I apply to a firm, I send my references, so that they can see that I still maintain a professional relationship with my former even though I was laid off. The lay off wasn't personal, it was just a tough road.
Cherith... the biggest mistake people make, imho, when moving to DC is trying to live in a trendy neighborhood. There are TONS of beautiful neighborhoods that locals know about and the newbies don't. if you're really serious about moving here, email me and i'll send you some 411.
More layoffs...thought we were done.
A friend of mine just said his office laid off about 20. This was their first layoff, but still a big one.
Layoffs are still happening...times are still very much hard.
things will be stagnant for a while, guessing architecture, as a profession, won't be in a hiring mode until there is accessibly credit out there for new construction, which is nowhere in sight at this point
Everyone at my work (small workplace) told to stay home for a while, till work comes in. We had avoided doing this earlier, but have to bit the bullet now.
Reports are showing that we are teetering on the edge of the economy tanking again. Now that most of the tax-incentives and home-buyer credits, etc have run out, the little bit of recovery is proving to have only been temporary. With the vast amounts of vacant commercial and residential properties available, banks are not exactly friendly with the loans which, aside from medical, leaves state and government work. There isn't enough of that work to go around and everyone is competing for what little scraps of that there is. Pretty soon even that work is going to run dry as states grapple with massive budget deficits and cut as much construction spending as possible with most of the necessary construction expenditures really having very little to do with architecture (roads, bridges, improvements, etc).
I think part of the problem is that most people are expecting that things will return to what they were like pre-recession and that seems to be less likely the longer this persists. Most of the stimulus efforts seem to ignore that fact, instead rewarding consumers to repeat the same purchasing habits that contributed (because I don't think there is just one cause of this all) to this situation in the first place. Add to that the general feeling of resentment (economy, politics, unemployment) that has polarized every issue to an us-vs-them gridlock, the outlook for positive growth looks more and more grim everyday.
Bigger picture: We are experiencing the same trends in the broader economy that the Rust Belt experienced 30 years ago in the industrial economy; Foreign competition for jobs yes, but capital more so. The return on investment overseas is greater than here. Asset deflation that once rendered Industrial properties of the most expensive tracts of land in places like Gary, IN. become quite literally toxic assets by the 1980s and cant even be given away. Increases in automation and computer controlled efficiency lead to massive labor reductions at steel plants. Huge labor surpluses now affecting the FIRE industries of Finance, Real Estate and Insurance. Its pretty bad folks, we really should have listened to Perot in '92.
Not only in the US. Many Western Governments that have invested loads of funds in public construction have "ran out of cash".
http://www.bdonline.co.uk/news/practices-look-abroad-as-double-dip-looms/5004194.article
Practices look abroad as double dip looms
14 August 2010
"Fears the industry is now heading into a second recession are prompting a growing number of jittery practices to scour the globe in the hope of filling vacant UK order books.
This week the industry suffered a double blow with the news on Wednesday that the number of architects out of work is on the rise after 10 months of going backwards – with July’s figure of 1,175 up 11.5% on the previous month.
Just 24 hours earlier a RIBA trends survey of more than 200 practices predicted a double-dip recession was now “almost certain”."
I do know of an office that supposedly has not fired anyone since the recession started i wonder how they did it? they say overseas investments helped them out, then there is another that did do a lot of firings a year ago now it has not fired anyone yet. if what you are all predicting to be true its time for all of us to jump ship.
I think it might be that time. I am currently planning to be out of the profession within a year. Anyone else leaving? It might be great when we get to the other side, but I don't think I can wait it out any longer.
I'm employed, I love architecture, but I cant afford to be an architect anymore. When your friends and family and younger siblings are taking their families on vacation or buying that house, dog, car etc. and your still forgoing lunch so you can pay your rent and loans like some college kid even though your closer to 40 than college, its time to get to get a real job, one that pays grown up wages.
LOL.
You do realize when people throw around the phrase "the market will reorganize itself," I surely hope you understand what that actually means.
A reorganization (both in vague economic terms and in the field of program evaluation) simply means this:
Shitcan everything that sucks.
Everyone is quick to blame two out of three things:
1) The perceived inability of management to act rationally or fairly
2) The economy
But... WAIT!... what's this third thing?
3) Employees.
Yes, you're only as good as your product. If your product frankly is awful and your work isn't demand (i.e., people going for cheaper and or better), there's not much of anything that can help you.
Frankly, there's a few (not certainly the majority) of architecture firms putting out big profits and or are growing and or have a continuous workload.
Not everyone can be a winner. Sometimes, the smartest business move is a dose of honesty. And you certainly can't fix anything without admitting that you frankly suck.
Thanks, Unicorn, I feel better now.
;-)
^
Still hear about local firms (Miami, FL) laying people off, and former 80+ person firms down to a handful. Just a few weeks ago a decent local firm (NBWW) was hit with a big round of lay-offs.
Things are by no way great, nor will they be for a while...but...
We finally have a 3-4 month backlog of work and the projects that are well capitalized. We have some local work (Miami) but the majority of the work is international (middle east, central/south america, caribbean, china). Across the firm things are picking up, and we are actually hiring in our LA, DC, and Shanghai offices.
^ mind sharing the office? Ready and willing to to relocate to LA or DC (not too excited about China).
so you suck unicorn? aren't you unemployed? i think a little sympathy is ok to have the day these people walk out and have to think about supporting families with no job....get over yourself. this economy has taken all the competition out of it. there are plenty of shitty architects left, and PLENTY of great ones have been let go. perhaps some snide comments can be handled tomorrow, but i was trying to commiserate a little since the wound is still raw. this was a good friend of mine, and he has a young daughter.
I'm lightly employed through other means (mostly doing things for other people who are far too lazy to do things on their own).
But I consider myself FUNemployed! At the very least, I am grossly underemployed.
In fact, people like me (I think Clerith Cutestory falls into this role a bit-- sorry for unnecessary inclusion!) do not participate in this economy and therefore have no real net impact (positive or negative) to the economy
But I have never claimed to have not sucked. I think in the last week... I have claimed to have sucked at least three times.
I'm pretty awful at everything-- but I've never been able to prove that I am awful or not awful at anything other than at my previous jobs.
But good friends, people with families? Those are not things that move the bottom line. Sorry!
But seriously... if you can't make money in architecture, you're (from CAD monkey to boss) doing something wrong.
At the very least, your job is this:
-- make some drawings that can sneak past an urban planner and permitting
-- make some renders or watercolors that get banks and investors all hot and wet
-- treat the client with respect and build something that falls somewhere in or near their vision
...
-- and then make sure it is built well enough to not leak, catch fire or fall down within 10 years (or however long your liability window is).
im too busy right now.....then grad school in 3 weeks...
And you work where J3? I have been out of work in DC for the past 8 months...
"We have some local work (Miami)"
"Across the firm things are picking up, and we are actually hiring in our LA, DC, and Shanghai offices."
I logged in specifically to tell Unicorn to go tickle his panda knob. Leave the 'discussioning' to grownups. Now go sketchup your momma. Again.
I got a call today telling me I was their second choice for the position I interviewed for. Sorry! 'Risk management' was the skill that won them over.
These are desperate times. I wish architecture wasn't this mythical profession that noone knows anything about. I would so gladly make a vertical shift to another field; only to be told 'oh, we don't need bridge designers right now". Fuck me.
There have been so many comments and it has been made clear and should be common knowledge to anyone who has been working in architecture that if you were let go, it was not because you "Suck", in fact in my last office the people who "sucked" kept their jobs, it was blatantly obvious to all of us. In a lot of cases the people with families were fired, for no other reason than that they could not contribute to the office Marketing efforts. If this economy picks up I hope those firms have exactly the same people they haven't fired.
guys/gals, like i said in my oRiginal post..."Things are by no way great, nor will they be for a while"
just trying to stay a little optimistic...yes, the situation sucKs!
Lay-offs are still happening, and will continue depending on what sector your firm is in. we were hit very hard very quickly...but have been stable for over a year and work is picking up (slowly)
Housing sales down 27.2%, lowest pace in 15 years
I need to start drinking scotch more (cheap scotch, it would seem)
I stocked up on my "cheap scotch" while travelling to panama for work..."old parr" and "Something Special" are both great and at $14 a bottle duty free, they are a bargain!!
J3 are you at RTKL? sounds familiar... Miami-DC-Shanghai... sadly they shuttered the Madrid office and laid off/made redundant nearly half the London office... not to mention shut down the landscape architecture studio in DC and had 5 full rounds of layoffs... but if work is picking up then more power to em.
anyways, I AM in DC. i was laid off for 8 months, got a job at one firm, and it seems as soon as i got that job i started getting calls for interviews at firms i had sent my stuff to back in March/April. i just got another offer at a better firm, as well as an interview at a GREAT firm I was just able to get lined up. i don't want to say things are picking up, because i don't think they are by any means... but when sh*t first hit the fan no one was even willing to interview ANYBODY. everyone who was laid off before me (i was a last rounder) has gotten jobs. i know this isn't replicated across the country.
in bad form, however, are firms who really didn't need to lay off anybody, but did so because they started getting resumes from people better than they had in their office. i actually had an interviewer tell me this during an interview.
I'm not sure what the next 6-12 months hold, I think the economy could go in a number of directions either down, middling or up. The main issue troubling our economy is whether the american consumer can lead us to "good times" once again, but sadly it seems like everyone is still paying off the debt of the last two decades. It's hard to fathom what else will give the economy the needed jolt in order for us to return to what we are accustomed to as a good economy, i.e, 3-4% growth.
The problem for architecture right now is really a matter of how firms have planned for the near future. While the cuts have been made, things scaled back, and new work found or not, in general most firms probably were hoping for a better outlook by now. The question I have is whether this recession leads to new business practices in the future. Will we stop throwing away our economic capital in pursuit of our vanity, prestige, etc...
@+i, as someone also in the DC market, I'm curious what firms you are starting to hear back from? I've just started getting a few calls, even had an interview or 2 recently, just appear to be in that holding pattern that most find themselves in.
jayness -
the simple economics say this: construction (and all related industries) are approx. 1/9th of the total u.s. economy, or 11%. if construction is down even 25% (i think that number's closer to 40%, but am going with the agc numbers) from its norm, we're already +/- 3% of the overall gdp. that means the rest of the economy has to grow at 6-7% to hit a 3-4% target growth. it ain't going to happen. there's nothing else that is enough of a driver to help spur that kind of growth, especially since consumers don't have a free atm in the form of rising house prices, nor do commercial developers have the ability to generate the kinds of deal leverage they were used to.
bottom line - right now, there's too much supply, no real demand, and no real appetite from lenders to build anything new. every state government is stretched thin beyond thin. this is very likely a scenario that will persist for the next 5 years (according to the banker i had breakfast with this morning).
granted, i'm painting with very broad strokes - there will be pockets of opportunity, a few deals that go forward, etc. it's not like all work has stopped. but the reality is we won't get back, in terms of numbers, to anything close to 2005-06 numbers for at least 5-10 years. if anything, i'd argue that we still have more contraction coming (my reason for posting this on this thread). there need to be more mergers of firms and generally more thinning out before we get to a bottom equilibrium. this applies to the whole a/e/c market. after that, we'll see what shakes out.
i haven't contributed to any of the 'lay off' threads, but i do now what to share the state of my former office.
i'd been there for 7 year. most of that time we hovered around 30 architects, peaking in 2006/7 with about 50.
now there is 4 architects left.
4 architects, plus 3 partners, 2 office staff!
holy cow p2an. didn't know that. your former office is rather big firm with recently completed super cool office isn't it?
more info about DC please. Interested in relocating there. I've done the west coast thing for too long now.
unicorn wrote
"-- make some drawings that can sneak past an urban planner and permitting
...
-- and then make sure it is built well enough to not leak, catch fire or fall down within 10 years (or however long your liability window is)."
uhh,.....okay....., and that works how?
More about DC.
Please give some consideration before moving here. Things are not a whole lot better than other places and I can't anticipate they will get entirely better over the next two years. The biggest misconception is that every firm does government work -- not entirely true as there are many big corporations here and many firms have been doing corporate interiors. Also over the past decade, DC has grown significantly and many projects to control urban blight caused firms to reinvent themselves into mix-use urban infill kinds of firms. One the floor fell out of that many firms could not sustain themselves and could not go back to doing their bread and butter government jobs. My last firm in DC was like this and it stung them BAD. I jumped ship as soon as I saw the writing on the wall.
I currently work in DC. My organization has been steady and we hope to secure some key projects that can keep us all stay busy for the remainder of the year and into FY11. We are not hiring right now mainly because we are in the process of co-locating three of our offices in the metro area into one office with a total staff of around 350. This has all been in part from M&As that have happened over the past two years. But we are also not hiring because some of our other offices around the country have been struggling and have been coming here to help. So we have been doing a lot of inter-office shuffling when we can. I trust other firms with multiple offices have been doing this as well.
Just about every firm I know (including the one I'm currently at) had layoffs -- some firms were hit hard (about 50% or more of the staff) and some pretty light like anywhere from 1-5 people. The heaviest layoffs came around late 2008 to early and mid 2009. but I haven't really heard any these days -- I imagine that's because there just aint anymore people to lay off. Some firms I know of have been hit with problems lately in which they over-fired people when things were tough and now scrambling to get some of their talent back.
I'm just looking for a change of pace. Too much sunshine, warm weather and stucco.
jump.
yup. we designed and built a beautiful (and big) building for ourselves...now its 80% empty.
The other thing about DC. It is CRAZY expensive here. Every corner you turn you will be hit up with some obnoxious fee, charge, or service.... So unnececary for such a lousy planned city.
Rent here for a one bedroom in the metro area that is near the metro could range anywhere from $900 (if you are the luckiest person on earth) to upward around $1800 without utilities.
The caveat is that if you make over a 40k a year, you cannot rent some of the places that have income restrictions. It's pretty stupid actually since we are practically borderline susbsitence level when it comes to finances... :(
In DC itself there are some nice new areas but most student and young professionals live around capitol hill. And they mostly room with others and some could be flea-infested dumps. Other young professionals who have some loot to throw around live in Clarendon neighborhood of Arlington which is a very fun place.
Most young architects like myself have moved out to the metro accecible burbs to avoid some of these obnoxious rent situations. Currently I live with a roomate and pay half of what I was paying in my previous situation.
I need to save money for some other more important things down the stretch.
Overall DC isn;t bad. It's a decent place (not sure if I would really call it a real city) but there is never a lack of things to do and there are a lot of young people here. I've met some really great people. The urbanity of DC proper is improving but it still has a lot work....
I think you would be hard pressed to find any city that had:
a: decent architecture scene (i.e. creative offices, exciting work)
b: affordable rent (in comparison to earned salary)
c: affordable other expenses
d: young people / youthful culture
e: plenty of things to do / vibrant nightlife / urban, etc.
If such a place exists, I would like to know!
What the world needs now is jobs, sweet jobs
It's the only thing that there's just too little of
What the world needs now is jobs, sweet jobs,
No not just for some but for everyone.
When you're alone
And life is making you lonely,
You can always go on funemplyment.
When you've got worries,
All the noise and the hurry
Seems to help, I know, funemployment.
Funemployed, things'll be great when you're
Funemployed, no finer place for sure,
Funemployed, everything's waiting for you
Chicago really does have b-e, that's why I moved here. My previous city had only a and e and e is worthless without c.
I like DC, and apparently, some firms are hiring... I would like to know which :P
sorry to hear that p2an. such a waste.
"I think you would be hard pressed to find any city that had:
a: decent architecture scene (i.e. creative offices, exciting work)
b: affordable rent (in comparison to earned salary)
c: affordable other expenses
d: young people / youthful culture
e: plenty of things to do / vibrant nightlife / urban, etc.
If such a place exists, I would like to know!"
I recently moved to Shanghai. 4/4
you mean 5/5?
i'm actually really quite curious about life in china, evan - from the little written exposure i have on it from people on archinect, it seems like it could be a great experience, if you're in a major city. i think, though, i could never make myself pack up and go knowing that i'd be working really intense hours. is that the case across the board for firms that hire westerners?
yeah I guess we should also add
f: doesn't require working crazy hours a week.
I can't wrap my head around moving to China, which is probably why I will not be working anytime in the next few years since it seems like all of the jobs are there.
There are plenty of new "emerging" markets, China is just the biggest (by far).
Probably in many of those (specially when you consider Shanghai, HK, Shenzhen and Beijing that at this point must be packed with Western architects) you will have little competence, so you will be able to command better working conditions, whether it is salaries/working hours or whatever. Probably you won't have either the hype of Shanghai.
dmc... i don't think it's as simples as saying Firm XYZ is hiring, go apply, and get the job. Or looking up on the AIA website. Both of those methods were fine a few years ago, but now firms around here may or may not be publicly advertising their open positions. I know for me, this position I am about to begin was not an advertised position. I sent my stuff blindly to them back in April. Some of the firm websites have a place you can make an account and upload your stuff- that is how I've snagged this other interview....
The other thing to realize is that, at least in my experience so far with three offers and 7 interviews, your previous firm names matter- A LOT. If you worked at a large firm, you personally did some pretty good design work, AND you have a reference that was your boss- it helps immensely. It lets the prospective employer know you weren't a slacker while you were there, and even if you were laid off, there are no hard feelings and you still have a professional relationship. Every time I apply to a firm, I send my references, so that they can see that I still maintain a professional relationship with my former even though I was laid off. The lay off wasn't personal, it was just a tough road.
Cherith... the biggest mistake people make, imho, when moving to DC is trying to live in a trendy neighborhood. There are TONS of beautiful neighborhoods that locals know about and the newbies don't. if you're really serious about moving here, email me and i'll send you some 411.
^ thanks. I will keep that in mind. For the time being, relocation is totally dependent on getting a job first.
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