Arizona has determined that there is not enough groundwater for all of the housing construction that has already been approved in the Phoenix area, and will stop developers from building some new subdivisions, a sign of looming trouble in the West and other places where overuse, drought and climate change are straining water supplies. — The New York Times
This decision, announced last Thursday, means that Arizona will no longer provide developers in some areas of the Phoenix region new permits to construct homes that rely on groundwater. Maricopa County, which includes Phoenix, sources half of its water supply from groundwater. The announcement will not impact developments that have already been approved. However, the state will be looking towards new water conservation measures and alternative sources to provide the water needed for these projects. The decision will likely have a significant effect on Arizona’s real estate market, especially in Phoenix, which has become the fastest growing metropolitan region in the country, due to the impact on housing affordability.
Now, developers looking to build will have to prove that they can ensure water supply for 100 years using water from a source that is not local groundwater. This move is another example of how the impacts of climate change continue to grow in prominence. In addition to depleting groundwater, a 23-year drought and rising temperatures, as reported by the The New York Times, have lowered the level of the Colorado River, which is relied on by Arizona and six other states. Construction is not expected to conclude anytime soon as there are about 80,000 approved housing lots yet to be built.
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Article is paywalled... can anyone link to the actual decision/ legislation/ government press release to see what the specific language is?
Arizona officials recently announced that the state will no longer grant certifications for new developments within the Phoenix area due to the rapid disappearance of groundwater, a result of water overuse and climate change-driven drought. A study revealed that the groundwater supporting Phoenix likely can't meet the additional demand anticipated over the next century. It was estimated that about 4% of the area’s groundwater demand, roughly 4.9 million acre-feet, could not be met over the next 100 years under current conditions. This shortage is expected to have significant implications for housing developments in the Phoenix metro area, which has been a leading region for population growth (1) (2).
However, this decision does not impact developments that have already been approved. Developers looking to build new construction will need to prove they can provide an "assured water supply" for 100 years using a source that is not local groundwater. Under state law, this assured supply is necessary for obtaining the required certificates to build housing developments or large industrial buildings that use water. Many cities in the Phoenix metro area, including Scottsdale and Tempe, already have this assured water supply, but private developers also must demonstrate they can meet this requirement (3) (4).
This announcement is seen as an effective implementation of the state law and growth in the Phoenix area is expected to continue under the new restrictions, albeit at a potentially different rate. The restrictions may make it more challenging for developments to spring up in less developed areas of the city. The decision might not necessarily limit development in the thriving Phoenix metro area, but it could redirect it towards larger and older cities like Tempe and Scottsdale. It's also not expected to limit water use for industry and manufacturing (5) (6) (7) (8).
In response to the ongoing water crisis, Arizona Governor Katie Hobbs unsealed a previously unreleased report revealing that Phoenix’s West Valley falls short of its 100-year supply of water required by law. Following this announcement, she issued an Executive Order to modernize Arizona’s groundwater management. The Governor's office will establish a new department dedicated to water, energy, and land use solutions, as well as a Water Policy Council tasked with updating the Arizona Groundwater Management Act. Governor Hobbs' executive budget proposal intends to allocate funds to help rural communities balance usage and recharge aquifers through Active Management Areas (9) (10) (11) (12) (13) (14) (15) (16).
These measures are in response to not just groundwater shortages, but also a significant reduction in surface water allocation from the Colorado River, which Arizona shares with six other states. The state had to cut 21% of its water use from the river, equivalent to the water usage of more than 2 million Arizona households a year (17) (18).
Unfortunately, I was not able to find the full text of the Governor's Executive Order due to time constraints. This document would provide a more comprehensive understanding of the specific actions to be taken and the mechanisms by which the government plans to manage the groundwater crisis. Let me know if you need more information or if there's anything else you'd like to know.
Thank you!
Thank you SYNTHIA.
they may not have a serious plan, tbh. As the article says, all currently approved development is going ahead, and the article concludes with the warning that estimates for what is feasible presume there will be a steady source of water for the next several decades, even though that is not likely.
Seems like this is what can be done in the face of the crisis. It sounds radical, but might not be enough and is almost certain too late.
From what I understand the problem is in any case not cities consuming too much water, but farming. Patterns of agriculture in the region are based on a hundred plus year old context and it was apparently a mirage even then (ie, the water levels were abnormally high, by chance). If there is no shift in those patterns it may not matter that the number of new houses will be reduced slightly.
Best plan is to design communities where the assumption is that water is very scarce. If that is feasible then it wont be a problem when there is abundance (if that ever happens). Landscapes, industry, homes, would all need to be hyper-regional. Which could be a pretty cool outcome. Identity, place-making and all of that good stuff might even be baked into the response.
Agree with your last paragraph - would love to see how the development changed if each community had to supply their own water (probably atmospheric condensers due to the desert climate, combined with aggressive re-use) and how that would change the built form.
What would be cool is if we can figure out a way to desalinate water. I had an idea years ago. I don't know if it would work, but theoretically you could pump sea water into a very deep well near a magma chamber, use the steam to turn a turbine, and condense the steam into fresh water....CA would be a perfect place if this was a doable engineering problem. Water and electricity. Imagine having fields of these things...fed by canals from the ocean...
Do you mean desalinate more cheaply? The technology exists just very energy intensive/expensive is my understanding.
Membrane desalination is pretty mature technology, the thing that seems to be holding it back is production of the membrane at scale, simply due to low demand, but that will likely rapidly change as coastal aquifers are inundated and become brackish in the next 50-100 years.
desalination will destroy the ocean, not a solution. I would definitely decommission all the golf courses in Arizona for starters, and then empty all the fake lakes in private communities. Developers are not to trust with unverifiable commitments.
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