By 2010 it looks like robots will take over some of the work of building high-rise towers. This new building technology is expected to bring down the number of injuries at high-rise construction sites and also cut down on the time spent on building them.
To read many of the posts that surface here, it sounds like most entry-level positions at firms in the US already have been designed for automatons -- i.e. a person who acts in a monotonous, routine manner, without active intelligence.
While somewhat of a divergence from this thread's main intent, I attended an AIA conference in DC recently at which a speaker (someone who I know well and really respect) took the position that within the next decade or so, 90% of the architects in the US will be employed by general contractors and the profession, as we know it today, will no longer be recognizable. He said this already is the case in Japan (a rumour I've heard but don't know for sure.)
quizzical - was the speaker referring to the demise of the design-bid-build process? I can see that system eventually going the way of the dodo. All the larger corporate clients I've ever worked with have been negotiated bids with their pre-selected general contractors...and thankfully their preferred architects as well. I can see them trying to "cut the fat" and combine the design and construction.
: not sure I know the answer to your question or even whether my friend's prediction is likely to come true.
However, taking the conjectural view for the moment that there is some likelihood that contractors will develop and sustain large in-house architectural and engineering departments, this is what I'm inclined to think would transpire:
a) The contractors will focus mostly on "architect of record" stuff -- taking over document development late in the DD phase and executing the CD package -- the stuff they already accuse us of not knowing how to do.
b) Independent architectural firms increasingly will focus on the preliminary design phases -- working mostly on conceptual design and concept development -- the stuff most of us say is the only interesting part of the process anyway.
c) Who the hell knows how the interests of the owner or society will be protected or how this scenario will accommodate the inevitable evolution of design as the CDs unfold.
d) Architectural employment increasingly will bifurcate -- with substantial portions being relegated to document production and almost totally divorced from design. Our current education system in the US will not produce many people willing to do this sort of work. Consequently, most of the people filling these positions will be "technocrats" -- probably trained (or even located) abroad.
e) The competition among professionals with design aspirations and who will want to work at the remaining independent firms will worsen ... only the very, very best will find work there and, because that's where everybody with any talent or ambition will want to work, downward pressure on wages will - naturally - worsen.
This is just my $.02 and I very well could be totally wrong (I often am) but I gotta tell 'ya, after working in this profession for 30+ years, the scenario I outline above sure has a certain plausibility.
ours won't be robots...it will be software...i've been getting increasingly concerned lately...with BIM making a lot of techinical knowledge more automated, Sketchup making visualization more accessible, and our profession making Design more client driven, i am getting really concerned.
on the positive side, there's always going to be a place where talented, creative and smart people can make a contribution. but, I'm pretty sure the model governing how we do our work is going to change radically over the next decade or so.
there's going to be some winners and there's going to be some losers (as there always is when change happens) I'n not sure I know which parts of the profession will fall into which of those buckets.
at one level, there is a real opportunity for the profession to get back to its roots and concentrate on what it really finds interesting. but, there's a lot of power and money lining up to shove us aside ... it will be interesting to see whether we're shoved further towards irrelevance or towards a role where we can make a real contribution.
mdler, based on your two posts above I'm thinking you are likely one of the "very, very best" talents that will be able to continue to find work in the architecture field.
Oh, but wait, you're leaving us, aren't you?
Honestly, quizzical, I think your scenario sounds very realistic. I don't think it's good for society, but I think it's a reality.
Offcaurse such tech. working mimicing the tradisional construction is both prone and deliverable, but it will not be that sort of building structure that apply the new jobs, the cheap family house, the new technology ; this is allready old technology we reconise, the real challances in construct has come with technologies that combine the intire process, from wanting to making the jobs from digital technikes, of mimicing the known and tested, or trust it allway's was like this, every time a new manufactoring yield a revolution. I say this is old mechanic, and relate very little to the just as avaible, well in fact even much more avaible options, allowing 2D cutting replace all that mechanics, that way take two steps instead of one slow one, and get the wonders here and now.
Offcaurse a sort of robot, can replace the construction worker, even with a tiny bit brains, Ai is an old animal but if you think you has a trouble getting such robots, delivering the programs to route them, then emagine how much easier every of this is with something as simple as 3dh, where you can do exactly the same designs, just not in rigid profile steel placed by automated workers, at your finger tip, you has something far more advanced, than making robots do the same as the workers, the same and better are easily made in sheet steel cut 2D .
------- Why bother with cramped mechanics, when something in fact better, is allready here.
what about outsourcing CD's? how common is it for firms today to outsource their work? you could have a 24/7 operation running if you have ppl working for you in china.
if outsourcing work becomes much more prevalent in arch practice today, new grads are in for some serious competition....
I work for a firm that sends most of it's CAD work to Asia. The model has real potential but also introduces a number of management and coordination issues that often make life exponentially more frustrating. I would estimate that it works out profitably about 1/4 of the time, though that could no doubt be improved in an office better equipped to manage. Firms that outsource well often station one of their own overseas to help manage and coordinate the drones.
Re: quizzical's comments on the direction of the industry: I don't see contractors taking over significant portions of the cd phase - primarily because I've never met a contractor or construction firm even remotely interested interested in that, they just want it done right and for it not to change once it's in their hands.
what I do see beginning to happen and needs to happen quicker: technologies to streamline the CD, Bid, and CA process. BIM is part of this but needs to grow beyond just the drawing set. I don't see BIM as automating technical knowledge, but rather a way of organizing information that reduces the possibility of "overlook" errors. The same thing needs to happen in the Bid, CA, RFI etc. process. Rather than coordinating OAC meetings through a flurry of emails and attached xls sheets that not everyone always gets, we need centralized web apps, accessible from the jobsite, that keep relevant data, meetings, questions, etc. highly organized, with as little crap as possible. Something a la backpack, but highly tailored to the AEC industry, and computer novice-proof.
Mexicans are far more effective than robots. If Ford employed them on the assembly line instead of those expensive robots they'd be in the black already.
So how long before the robots take our jobs too?
'cuz they're going after the contractors already.
http://english.chosun.com/w21data/html/news/200801/200801080017.html
By 2010 it looks like robots will take over some of the work of building high-rise towers. This new building technology is expected to bring down the number of injuries at high-rise construction sites and also cut down on the time spent on building them.
japan dead body remover robot, anticipating an increase in suicides from skyrocketing unemployment rates.
To read many of the posts that surface here, it sounds like most entry-level positions at firms in the US already have been designed for automatons -- i.e. a person who acts in a monotonous, routine manner, without active intelligence.
While somewhat of a divergence from this thread's main intent, I attended an AIA conference in DC recently at which a speaker (someone who I know well and really respect) took the position that within the next decade or so, 90% of the architects in the US will be employed by general contractors and the profession, as we know it today, will no longer be recognizable. He said this already is the case in Japan (a rumour I've heard but don't know for sure.)
Surely, these are related themes!
LOL!
So, quizzical, do you think it's something to be optimistic about or will more new grads and seasoned vets head to other fields?
quizzical - was the speaker referring to the demise of the design-bid-build process? I can see that system eventually going the way of the dodo. All the larger corporate clients I've ever worked with have been negotiated bids with their pre-selected general contractors...and thankfully their preferred architects as well. I can see them trying to "cut the fat" and combine the design and construction.
: not sure I know the answer to your question or even whether my friend's prediction is likely to come true.
However, taking the conjectural view for the moment that there is some likelihood that contractors will develop and sustain large in-house architectural and engineering departments, this is what I'm inclined to think would transpire:
a) The contractors will focus mostly on "architect of record" stuff -- taking over document development late in the DD phase and executing the CD package -- the stuff they already accuse us of not knowing how to do.
b) Independent architectural firms increasingly will focus on the preliminary design phases -- working mostly on conceptual design and concept development -- the stuff most of us say is the only interesting part of the process anyway.
c) Who the hell knows how the interests of the owner or society will be protected or how this scenario will accommodate the inevitable evolution of design as the CDs unfold.
d) Architectural employment increasingly will bifurcate -- with substantial portions being relegated to document production and almost totally divorced from design. Our current education system in the US will not produce many people willing to do this sort of work. Consequently, most of the people filling these positions will be "technocrats" -- probably trained (or even located) abroad.
e) The competition among professionals with design aspirations and who will want to work at the remaining independent firms will worsen ... only the very, very best will find work there and, because that's where everybody with any talent or ambition will want to work, downward pressure on wages will - naturally - worsen.
This is just my $.02 and I very well could be totally wrong (I often am) but I gotta tell 'ya, after working in this profession for 30+ years, the scenario I outline above sure has a certain plausibility.
: yes, that's pretty much what he was suggesting -- a strong reliance on the design-build model.
Anybody here work in Japan? I'd really like to understand better how the process works over there.
ours won't be robots...it will be software...i've been getting increasingly concerned lately...with BIM making a lot of techinical knowledge more automated, Sketchup making visualization more accessible, and our profession making Design more client driven, i am getting really concerned.
Well, I still jerk off manually.....
on the positive side, there's always going to be a place where talented, creative and smart people can make a contribution. but, I'm pretty sure the model governing how we do our work is going to change radically over the next decade or so.
there's going to be some winners and there's going to be some losers (as there always is when change happens) I'n not sure I know which parts of the profession will fall into which of those buckets.
at one level, there is a real opportunity for the profession to get back to its roots and concentrate on what it really finds interesting. but, there's a lot of power and money lining up to shove us aside ... it will be interesting to see whether we're shoved further towards irrelevance or towards a role where we can make a real contribution.
I think it could go either way.
someone has to build the robots
mdler, based on your two posts above I'm thinking you are likely one of the "very, very best" talents that will be able to continue to find work in the architecture field.
Oh, but wait, you're leaving us, aren't you?
Honestly, quizzical, I think your scenario sounds very realistic. I don't think it's good for society, but I think it's a reality.
we need gunz to fight da' bots in 2050.....
all hail robocop
der
Offcaurse such tech. working mimicing the tradisional construction is both prone and deliverable, but it will not be that sort of building structure that apply the new jobs, the cheap family house, the new technology ; this is allready old technology we reconise, the real challances in construct has come with technologies that combine the intire process, from wanting to making the jobs from digital technikes, of mimicing the known and tested, or trust it allway's was like this, every time a new manufactoring yield a revolution. I say this is old mechanic, and relate very little to the just as avaible, well in fact even much more avaible options, allowing 2D cutting replace all that mechanics, that way take two steps instead of one slow one, and get the wonders here and now.
he name is Yoshimi...
oops... ^ her name is Yoshimi
Offcaurse a sort of robot, can replace the construction worker, even with a tiny bit brains, Ai is an old animal but if you think you has a trouble getting such robots, delivering the programs to route them, then emagine how much easier every of this is with something as simple as 3dh, where you can do exactly the same designs, just not in rigid profile steel placed by automated workers, at your finger tip, you has something far more advanced, than making robots do the same as the workers, the same and better are easily made in sheet steel cut 2D .
------- Why bother with cramped mechanics, when something in fact better, is allready here.
what about outsourcing CD's? how common is it for firms today to outsource their work? you could have a 24/7 operation running if you have ppl working for you in china.
if outsourcing work becomes much more prevalent in arch practice today, new grads are in for some serious competition....
I wouldn't get too excited about it until you see Soylent Green on the shelves.
I work for a firm that sends most of it's CAD work to Asia. The model has real potential but also introduces a number of management and coordination issues that often make life exponentially more frustrating. I would estimate that it works out profitably about 1/4 of the time, though that could no doubt be improved in an office better equipped to manage. Firms that outsource well often station one of their own overseas to help manage and coordinate the drones.
Re: quizzical's comments on the direction of the industry: I don't see contractors taking over significant portions of the cd phase - primarily because I've never met a contractor or construction firm even remotely interested interested in that, they just want it done right and for it not to change once it's in their hands.
what I do see beginning to happen and needs to happen quicker: technologies to streamline the CD, Bid, and CA process. BIM is part of this but needs to grow beyond just the drawing set. I don't see BIM as automating technical knowledge, but rather a way of organizing information that reduces the possibility of "overlook" errors. The same thing needs to happen in the Bid, CA, RFI etc. process. Rather than coordinating OAC meetings through a flurry of emails and attached xls sheets that not everyone always gets, we need centralized web apps, accessible from the jobsite, that keep relevant data, meetings, questions, etc. highly organized, with as little crap as possible. Something a la backpack, but highly tailored to the AEC industry, and computer novice-proof.
oops, meant basecamp, not backpack.
http://www.basecamphq.com/
Soylent Green, great film
Also check out Logans Run
who needs robots when you gots mexicans?????????
What do you mean ; you teach mexicans to do what robots do ?
Isn't we then back where we started ?
Mexicans smarter than you dumb yanks.
Sure with the NAFTA you have no choice but to accept them.
Mexicans are far more effective than robots. If Ford employed them on the assembly line instead of those expensive robots they'd be in the black already.
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