Since the mega firms have been busy with their "strategic alliances"..i.e. buying medium sized firms...layoffs and furloughs have been happening...Architecture continues to be a dark cloud and a harsh mistress due to economic woes.

It all depends upon where you sit. From my perspective, I've seen firms hiring, inquiries increasing and increased confidence. If you are unemployed, you see rejection letters, lost time and personal debt. Is one situation more real than the other? It's a big economy out there with many disparate and contradictory realities.

It's regional too....our southwest region is still doing poorly, Canada doing very well, and we are doing well in China, and South America.

from what i have seen...the recovery is very real...it's just not the typical one, and i do not think a true recovery for construction is in the near future. but anecdotally, many people i know are having a MUCH easier time finding work and/or moving up. hang in there....but don't overlook the possibility of other fields. no need to beat a dead horse, but architecture is still not healthy, so it is not an accurate canary in the coal mine any more....it's been dead for years!

here in the bay area there are many TI projects, Zynga, FaceBook, Google and many others that have sprung up over the last year - think SOM-SF will be be busy with the American Cup race facilities - the 49er Stadium in Santa Clara

I'm in the southwest and it does not seem to be much different than last year, other than a good amount of remodel work due to all the investors buying forclosures.  Just worried that all the crap with Greece is going to slow us down again.   

or worse, war with Iran

it's looking like a real possibility

the EU can easily deal with greece - the only thing really worth paying attention to is china's housing market, but their government has far more control over their economy than pretty much everywhere else - so I don't think there's going to be as huge an impact.

also - the US is slowly coming back (it's uneven, but things are looking pretty good some parts of the country) - but our biggest obstacle to a full-on recovery is the tea party faction of the GOP.  Their current attack on our country's economic engine - urban areas - is completely bizarre.  city-centered economies generate around to 85-90% of our GDP - so of course cities take in a disproportionate amount of our national budget because they represent the largest chunk of our economy (and they generate much better returns on our collective investment).  I know the sticking point for them is anything that remotely resembles social programs (like public transit) - but this thinking that somehow our country can survive without federal government investment in our urban infrastructure is completely absurd.

for example - the proposed house transportation bill - they're sending the most money to the areas of the country that generate the smallest amount of our GDP- and they completely got rid of funding for public transit, which is the lifeblood of cities.  I know they're doing it because somehow public transit is socialism, but as an economic investment strategy it makes absolutely no sense.

nothing they do makes any sense. 

Once the elections are over, we will have a full recovery. Doesn't even matter who wins. Long tail of this recession is mostly manufactured by doom'n'gloom speculators. 

The really big drop hasn't even happened yet. It's coming, though. Maybe soon.

big drop?  what's the current speculative bubble?

I don't know what will happen this year, but I am pretty convinced that our society will collapse during this century (I think probably in the next 10-20 years). The resource-based- economy is no longer sustainable, and all the social unevenness will lead to major conflicts all around the world. Basically, because more people are being aware that world's economy, social and politic structure is an arbitrary creation that is being perpetuated by those who really control the world (the masters of puppets). And that only works for like 0.001% of world's inhabitants. 

I think most users of this forum are from USA, and maybe you still don't really see what's going on (as your media are deeply controlled by the very same people that's behind the curtains controlling the world - this happens in almost every world's country, but is more evident in USA). They make you believe what they want  you to believe, and they are really good at it (I think the most evident proof of that was Bush re-election, and even more Obama's election). However, all over the world more and more people are being awakened, and slowly but firmly politicians are loosing their credibility and support, and people are beginning to fight for their rights (their real rights). What we've seen so far is just the tip of the iceberg. I don't want to sound like a conspiracy guy, but it is hard to find the appropriate words to say all this in english.

Well, I don't know how to finish this idea, but my point is that it really doesn't matter how economy will be this year, or next one, as our society, economy and social order, as we know it, are in a countdown to extinction. And I am pretty sure that architecture and architects will have nothing to do against it (but they probably will be an important part of world's "new age" - to give it a name)

The next speculative bubble is either currency or gold.  It's sort of all tied in together, so you can almost substitute one for the other when telling your friends how the shit will hit the fan. 

As to when it will end, we've always kind of known.  Start planning your vacation for the week of Dec 21. There won't be any point going to work, and I'm sure none of us are going to want to be answering the phone that day anyway.

As to the aftermath, now is the time to ask what kind of Architect you want to be.  Can you build a stylish cardboard box house that will keep you warm and keep water our?  Or will be stylish but cause you to die from exposure?  Also, I think the planners among us should be able to develop some sense of community in whatever we start to call hoovervilles.  I don't think people naturally want to establish their meager attempts at housing haphazardly, but that could be optimism on my part.

Community is important.  As a kid growing up in NY I knew that if a zombi apocalypse ever happened the crazy bikers across the street would hold down the fort, but now where I live my neighbors are probably more likely to eat me. its an all men for themselves culture nowadays which will make such a collapse much more volitile.  We are unsustainable in so many ways. 

I worry that the rising gas prices this summer will stall out the recovery, around June/July a lot of businesses are running on very thin margins and that extra cost will force them to lay people off, stop hiring etc, etc.

Gas prices typically drop dramatically before a US election. 

the converse statement is more true, that gas prices always rise in the summer.

it just so happens that elections are in the fall.

are you saying it's a false correlation?  that can't be.  there's a graph and everything.

Handsum: "...so leveraged these governments in these countries giving their brain dead citizenry free hand outs and entitlements that it is now mathematically impossible to save the paradigm..."

Yeah, I think Mr. Jim Puplava needs to eat a bag of dicks. The entitlements are responsible for $100 TRILLION debt? Not derivative swaps? All of this fear-mongering is actually wishful thinking on part of those who find chaos extremely profitable. I advise my fellow archinectors not to fall for it.

As far as Greece goes, back in my home country, even when I was a little kid, the standard saying was "Broke like Greece". They've always been poster-child for economic meltdown. Sheer number of Greek immigrants to North America in 20th century confirms this. That they are now dragging other nations down with them is a new development, but not that far from business as usual. 

I agree Rusty, but now they are "too big to fail."  Everything is "too big to fail."  I don't see a total economic collapse as a likely possibility, however it does seem that this idea that we are in a recovery is a little premature considering all the unsettled problems going on right now.  It could be an up and down world for a few more years at least. 

oh god - is it time for our monthly hand wringing again? 

look, the total world gdp has literally increased 20x fold over the last 40 years - it's a level of expansionary consumption unheralded, even compared to the first industrial revolution. what's happening in the u.s. is that we're leveling out after decades of debt fueled growth (private debt far outstrips public debt btw). europe's not much better. what we've figured out is that we can't truly 'scale' up institutions and social programs to the levels that we have now. the numbers don't work. 

resource consumption is occurring at unsustainable levels and people are desperately trying to get into a position where they ride out the various breakdowns. the reality is we could tax everything out of the 1% and it won't solve the problems. we don't make enough things that minimally and inexpensively address the basic living conditions for about 3/5ths of the world's population but we're happy throwing gazillions at the next online social network that can scale. why in the world should we think anything's wrong?

OMG thank you for that post Gregory!  Things need to get smaller.

We have made some great strides in the past 4 years as we have:

1. A minority President.
2. Captured and killed some of the most evil people that have every lived.
3. Brought all sorts of strange ideas and notions to the forefront of American consciousness.

However, we need to do more. I challenge Barack to call the American people to Washington for a meeting. We all need to meet together.

@seed, Are you being sarcastic?

Not at all. I am not saying that our systems, like all systems, will not inevitable collapse. Everything collapses at some point. However, there aint no reason we cannot ride this thing out for another couple of hundred years.

I was pointing at this:

2. Captured and killed some of the most evil people that have every lived.

seed, really a couple hundred years?  By 2100 there will be more than double the population as resources diminish. unless someone figures out cold fusion we are fucked buddy.  There is no single problem we face, there are dozens of problems from climate change to peak oil to the loss of upward mobility...that all seem to be taking effect at the same time.  We will never as a world  address these problems in time.  We are still arguing about fucking birth control.  People are just living in lala land. 

Yes things need to get smaller!!!  By decentralising everything collapse will be isolated in specific areas.  Why did we put all our eggs in one basket?  start with community, economy, energy, and production of essential goods.  Collapse is happening and if you don't see it you are sleeping.      

It's dicey.  And the profession is up for grabs and is anyone's guess at this point.

I am at one of the large global mega-firms and we have been very busy (surprisingly we actually don't grow through M&As).  I've been here for almost 1 year and it's been nonstop busy and nonsetop hiring spree (my office alone has added 100 personel since January 2011!  I can see that start to wrap up soon but again still reasonably busy as we continue to get jobs comming in - and we are not known  to turn work away.

The previous firm I WAS with which is also a large global behemoth who actually DID grow through M&As is still contracting and things are VERY ugly there as they continue to fire some of the top designers and people continue to resign their positions.  It's all about the mergers and the redundancies that causes - some ugly corporation politics.  I'm glad I am out of there.

Our whole society isn't going to collapse. Not this century, and not the next. But the political-economic system we have built up on a massive expansion of credit is going deleverage. When that happens (not "if" ... this is an inevitability, not a possibility), all the institutions and systems that are predicated on all that credit for their existence are going to have to radically reform themselves or cease to exist in any currently recognizable form. That includes the US government as well as the entire US financial system. There isn't a major bank anywhere in this country that isn't currently insolvent, and the government has been busily adding trillions in toxic assets to its books while it desperately pisses into the howling hurricane of deleverage.

Bubbles are driven by credit expansion and leverage. The era of leverage is coming to an end. That means no more bubbles until all that leverage rectifies and a new era of credit expansion takes hold. That new credit expansion can't start until there has been a long period of capital creation. The last 60 years of "prosperity" was paid for by leveraging and consuming all the capital that had been created in the US economy over the previous hunded-plus years. That's gone now. There won't be another major credit expansion until it's been replaced, and it can't be replaced until all the current leverage and credit has been wound down. In practical terms, that means the US economy is going to shrink back to its 1960s/1950s size in real terms. Not a collapse, but a major drawdown from what it was in 2007, or even what it is now. That represents a contraction of about 90% or so in market capitalization and asset values.

The earlier point about the welfare state causing this problem has it backwards. The welfare state could not have existed without the extensive pre-existing social and economic capital the US had built up by the 1930s or 1950s. Without that seed corn to spend, the welfare state could not have been sustained for more than a decade. As the seed corn dwindled into the late 1960s and 1970s, new means for sustaining the consumption system on which the political and economic classes had become dependent became necessary. So began the process by which the remaining social and economic capital in the nation was leveraged and spent into a gigantic, towering edifice of debt and entitlement. But dwindling capital can only be leveraged so far before the slightest disruption causes the entire structure to disintegrate. That happened faster with the social bonds and institutions that were undermined and spent for short-sighted purposes. Detroit fell decades ago. The economic frontier of exhaustion and disintegration took longer, but we've hit it all the same. There's no going back now. As it fails, everything that depends on it for its power, justification, or existence will fail with it. This isn't a prediction. It's simply and acknowledgement of reality.

Med.

At the mega firm you are with now has there been any talk of salary increases? Ive been hearing that these giants are making some serious cash in the past 18 months but wages are not reflecting that....Getting back to annual increases would be a good sign that things are starting to take hold but until then I dont know what to think about this "recovery" being seen at the corporate firms.

sureel, we have gotten slight pay increases.  I was surprised that only after 8 months I got a VERY SMALL pay raise and we also got two bonuses.

I am seeing some slight improvements.  Clients are coming out of the woodwork that have been mia for years now.  Not the same projects as before, but new projects, nonetheless.

With election year here, I see all efforts being put on keeping this all going.  Europe looks to be mostly contained, and with the exception of Iran things are looking better than they have in a few years.

I like how Geitner (in an interview yesterday on CNBC) said that higher gas prices are a sign the world's economies are getting better as they can now charge more and get it.  Love how we give subsidies to big oil and the like, but then maintain such little control over pricing. 

Higher gas prices are the result of speculation and Iran's cutoff of oil to France and Britain, and Europe is far from contained.

A colleague mentioned that the only active projects he has are ones that are self funded either by corporations or wealthy individuals.  I think this is direct evidence of one of the points gwarton is describing above. 

I heard a very interesting interview by Jim Rogers the other day, the interviewer was questioning him about the US recovery etc...and Rogers stated an interesting fact that although we are being told of all of these positive economic signs, increase in GDP, decrease in unemployment etc..., electricity usage was in fact going down in the US, even while our population is going up.

I half-heard an interview a few days ago on CNBC with a guy who was saying that US gasoline consumption is way down, and that historically has presaged a recession.  Who knows....everybody has an opinion but it's only an opinion.  Ten-year Treasuries are at all time low yields which suggests a bubble.  If there were to be a collapse in that market, it could result in another panic and recession since most ordinary people don't understand that even Treasuries are not truly risk free.

Interesting Geez, that would not surprise me at all.  I think it is evident that gasoline prices are not based on supply and demand anymore.

Personally, my thesis is that this is just the start of a period of significant inflation as the result of the money printing (which has been given the more palatable name "quantitative easing") and the debasement of our currency.

As our fiat currency becomes more worthless, $5 gasoline will be the least of our worries from my perspective.

electricity usage was in fact going down in the US, even while our population is going up.

Might this not be because of recent efforts to increase efficiency? The progressive phasing out of incandescent light bulbs as part of the Energy Independence and Security Act (interestingly a Bush era bill) is the single most important piece of climate change legislation passed in the U.S. Additionally major efforts from Energy Star to weatherization as part of ARRA to energy company incentives are making an impact on energy consumption. There is a hell of a lot left to do to address climate change, but many small steps have already been taken.

Ah very good point won and done.  I really do not know, I am going by his judgment and experience (I've read some of his books etc..).  I am not sure where he is getting his information. 

I suspect that the efficiency gains you speak of are a smaller percentage of the overall drop, but we need to have data for this discussion.  I am going to guess that Rodgers has access to all kinds of info as a professional investor (he used to work with George Soros).

I'll see if I can find something on DOE website etc...for our discussion.