1.15 magic number for cities?


This is interesting, actually.  I'm currently teaching an urban studies course, in which we survey the various theories and aha! concepts advanced over the last century and a half by sociologists, geographers, economists, demographers, historians, architects, mathematicians and others trying to explain urban growth.

One more for the long list.... 

Sep 25, 12 11:55 am

Yeah, the number varies slightly, but it is very popular among economists and staticians. Nothing new.

It's been said that every time you double a population, you get 20% more of everything. i.e. Increase population by 100% leads to 120% increase of everything. Which includes more talents, engineers, doctors, musicians, car jacking, rape and serial killers...

The larger the population, the more extremes on both ends of the bell curve.

Sep 25, 12 1:07 pm
i r giv up

don't you live in some backwater suburb, jl?

Sep 25, 12 1:13 pm

And what happens if the population is reduced?  Would a  halving of the population result in a disproportionate reduction in other things?  


Sep 25, 12 1:28 pm

I'm sure places like Houston are outliers to this rule. Except for number of fat people.

Sep 25, 12 1:59 pm

car jacking, rape and serial killers...

It's all about per capita gain. Europe has about 130 people per square mile. The United States has about 30. 

I don't remember exact figures— it's about 4 times I believe— but the incidence of serial killings in the U.S. is statistically more significant than most places in the world.

Africa has an exceedingly high number of ritualistic murders that could be considered serial murder and the population density of Africa is slightly less than 30 people per square mile. South Africa, a country with an exceedingly high number of serial killers, is around ~35 people per square mile.

Population increases and densities have little correlation with expanding populations.

In fact, you could argue that U.S. and South Africa have increased serial murders because of that lack orphanages. As the U.S. has no existing orphanage system and South Africa's orphanage system is collapsing, density and population increases in Europe have supported a long-standing and stable orphanage system that puts less children in at-risk scenarios that lead to the development of psychopathologies associated with serial murder.

Sep 25, 12 2:33 pm

Does this mean that a sudden re-location of suburbanites and or a rural population into a centralized location will automatically produce this number of increases and decreases?  Or does the number (increases and decreases) draw in this population?

Sep 26, 12 12:58 pm

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