The Associated Builders and Contractors’ Chief Economist Anirban Basu has struck an optimistic note about the near-term health of the construction industry. The assessment comes as ABC releases its latest Construction Backlog Indicator, which found that backlogs declined to 9.2 months in August from 9.3 months in July. The figure remains 0.5 months above the August 2022 level.

“There’s no sign of a construction recession in the near term,” Basu said. “If anything, contractors are more upbeat, as policy and technology shifts along with economic transformation, are creating substantial demand for improvements and growth in America’s built environment.”

ABC’s latest figures also suggest a divide in resilience between contractors with more than $100 million in annual revenues and smaller contractors. Backlogs among contractors with revenues over $100 million increased by 3.2 months from July, while backlogs for contractors in all other revenue brackets marginally declined. 

Elsewhere, ABC’s Construction Confidence Index saw positive increases in readings for sales, profit margins, and staffing levels, with 50+ scores in all, suggesting expectations of growth in the next six months.

“While a plurality of contractors expects only small improvements in sales, profit margins, and staffing over the next six months, even incremental improvement is remarkable in the context of tightening credit, higher project financing costs, and lingering fears of recession,” Basu added. “Backlog continues to be at the upper end of historic levels, with the infrastructure category registering substantial gains in backlog in August. That suggests that a growing number of public works projects is poised to break ground.”

The assessment comes in the same week that the latest data from the Dodge Construction Network indicated a 6% total rise in construction starts for the month of August. Meanwhile, a hike in fuel costs is believed to have driven the first increase in construction input prices in six months, according to ABC’s recent analysis of data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Producer Price Index.