Bernanke’s had a good go-of-it, juicing the market through the backdoor and concealing—as much as possible—who is still buying US Treasuries. (who knows; maybe it’s the Fed buying its own paper offshore?!?) But what good will it do? The US consumer is broke; the tank is on empty. Household equity has declined by 94%, jobs are scarce, personal savings are rising, and families are cutting back and hunkering down. It will take a decade or more before household debt is whittled-away to a point where people can consume at pre-crisis levels. Another stock market bubble won’t change a damn thing. This Depression is just beginning.
“From the end of 2007 through Q1 of 2009, household equity has declined by 94%. Is it surprising that today’s GDP number would have been a complete debacle if the consumer had been left alone to prop the U.S. economy, on whom 70% of the economy is reliant? Obama pulled a Hail Mary with the stimulus: without it there would be no debate America is in a depression right now.
based on technicals, a number of markets look to be past the bottom... not out of the woods yet, but the majority of stimulus hasn't even been used yet, so there should be sufficient buoyancy for at least a little while imho...
optimistically, i think with the right policy going forward, things look up... and if things get worse, it's really bad.. deflation is a problem, inflation is a worry, but it's something that can be dealt with...
consumer demand is an issue, but there are other markets for goods and services... u.s. consumption was out of whack, we need to produce more, put our businees in a global market which is emerging
i think we come out stronger, eat ourselves fat less, and be more productive long run... compete globally by investing in the right places like our cities and infrstructure and tech and health, education, etc.
Obama pulled a Hail Mary with the stimulus: without it there would be no debate America is in a depression right now.
What?!? Only a fraction of the stimulus has been spent and most of that went as direct aid to bailing out states. The vast majority of the stimulus spending is all back loaded to 2010...and being spent on pork to boot.
Let's also not forget that the close to 1 trillion being spent on the 2009 stimulus is just additional debt. The gov't doesn't have any money to give away in the first place. The federal reserve and treasury are walking a very fine line between a solvent dollar and hyper-inflation. Why else is Geithner going over to sweet talk the Chinese?
I do agree that the "depression" is just begining but this administration and congress has done nothing to slow or stop it.
it's a global recession requiring globally coordinated fiscal and monetary policy
imho stimulus spending needs to be coordinated with other countries... we are in a global economy... china's stimulus affects u.s. markets and companies, and u.s. stimulus affects chinese companies and markets
as our markets rise and fall, this impacts china and japan and germany, brazil, australia, etc. so it's in everyone's best interest to stabilize global markets...
i think most people realize this. when the cmbs market completely implodes in the coming years, we will be in a much much worse place than we are today.
Some signs of the country's economic situation: the APR on my credit card just jumped by 10%. I've never carried a balance from one month to the next, I've had the card for over ten years.
I asked the Chase rep why they were doing this to a good customer and she said "it's the economic situation. All the credit card companies are raising their APRs." Sure enough, I've been hearing horror stories of people's APRs jumping to 25.99% overnight.
We still haven't felt the effects of the impending commercial real estate collapse yet!
But that will only probably affect the very rich. Well, architects should hope... but a general "we" should hope that this happens. It will probably cause a big business boom when commercial real estate prices bottom out.
Cause, you know... then people could afford to open businesses and secure cheap long-term leases.
The commercial real estate, at least the last report I saw, will be a gradual impact, unlike the residential. Leases will expire over time, not at once, etc. This, at least in theory, will help mitigate the onslaught of problems.
And yes, Strawbeary, I am reminded of that everyday. So many distressed properties out there that are screaming deals. It was Pulte Homes or Richmond (or some other big one) that recently liquidated over a billion dollars of front range property for about 10 cents on the dollar. Absolutely amazing. Someone will be very wealthy just holding those for a few years.
Aug 5, 09 11:50 am ·
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This Depression is Just Begining
Bernanke’s had a good go-of-it, juicing the market through the backdoor and concealing—as much as possible—who is still buying US Treasuries. (who knows; maybe it’s the Fed buying its own paper offshore?!?) But what good will it do? The US consumer is broke; the tank is on empty. Household equity has declined by 94%, jobs are scarce, personal savings are rising, and families are cutting back and hunkering down. It will take a decade or more before household debt is whittled-away to a point where people can consume at pre-crisis levels. Another stock market bubble won’t change a damn thing. This Depression is just beginning.
http://informationclearinghouse.info/article23182.htm
ccw
housing prices rose this month...
based on technicals, a number of markets look to be past the bottom... not out of the woods yet, but the majority of stimulus hasn't even been used yet, so there should be sufficient buoyancy for at least a little while imho...
optimistically, i think with the right policy going forward, things look up... and if things get worse, it's really bad.. deflation is a problem, inflation is a worry, but it's something that can be dealt with...
i hope... :p
consumer demand is an issue, but there are other markets for goods and services... u.s. consumption was out of whack, we need to produce more, put our businees in a global market which is emerging
i think we come out stronger, eat ourselves fat less, and be more productive long run... compete globally by investing in the right places like our cities and infrstructure and tech and health, education, etc.
What?!? Only a fraction of the stimulus has been spent and most of that went as direct aid to bailing out states. The vast majority of the stimulus spending is all back loaded to 2010...and being spent on pork to boot.
Let's also not forget that the close to 1 trillion being spent on the 2009 stimulus is just additional debt. The gov't doesn't have any money to give away in the first place. The federal reserve and treasury are walking a very fine line between a solvent dollar and hyper-inflation. Why else is Geithner going over to sweet talk the Chinese?
I do agree that the "depression" is just begining but this administration and congress has done nothing to slow or stop it.
it's a global recession requiring globally coordinated fiscal and monetary policy
imho stimulus spending needs to be coordinated with other countries... we are in a global economy... china's stimulus affects u.s. markets and companies, and u.s. stimulus affects chinese companies and markets
as our markets rise and fall, this impacts china and japan and germany, brazil, australia, etc. so it's in everyone's best interest to stabilize global markets...
i think most people realize this. when the cmbs market completely implodes in the coming years, we will be in a much much worse place than we are today.
Some signs of the country's economic situation: the APR on my credit card just jumped by 10%. I've never carried a balance from one month to the next, I've had the card for over ten years.
I asked the Chase rep why they were doing this to a good customer and she said "it's the economic situation. All the credit card companies are raising their APRs." Sure enough, I've been hearing horror stories of people's APRs jumping to 25.99% overnight.
The rich get richer and the poor get poorer.
We still haven't felt the effects of the impending commercial real estate collapse yet!
But that will only probably affect the very rich. Well, architects should hope... but a general "we" should hope that this happens. It will probably cause a big business boom when commercial real estate prices bottom out.
Cause, you know... then people could afford to open businesses and secure cheap long-term leases.
The commercial real estate, at least the last report I saw, will be a gradual impact, unlike the residential. Leases will expire over time, not at once, etc. This, at least in theory, will help mitigate the onslaught of problems.
And yes, Strawbeary, I am reminded of that everyday. So many distressed properties out there that are screaming deals. It was Pulte Homes or Richmond (or some other big one) that recently liquidated over a billion dollars of front range property for about 10 cents on the dollar. Absolutely amazing. Someone will be very wealthy just holding those for a few years.
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