weaker market will affect architects? (whoops)

I've heard conflicting reports (haven't read either, so it's just what people have told me, so take it with a grain of salt):

1. Market slows, architects walk

2. There is going to be so much demand as the generations shift that we can't keep up with it

Total opposites. If you are in health care or something similar, you are in a good position.

i might be mistaken here, but i believe that the phrase slowing us real estate market is usually in reference to the residential real estate market. if i'm correct, i don't think it will directly hit architects since many homes are built without us anyhow...but then i'm hardly an expert on this and i couldn't cite any reference off the top of my head here to support my opinion...like whatever

sometimes when the market slows and mortgage rates rise (usually hand in hand) people actually start to sink money into their homes as investments instead of simply moving to a new one. So if you're doing reno work it can help, I think.

on the other hand, for high design res. architects i think we should be looking at home construction loan rates and property prices... in a real estate slow down, property prices gradually fall, leading eventually to more property purchases, and if construction loan rates are good, that could mean more new res. construction for architects in the Rich People's Homes category.

who knows.

yes, but doesn't a real estate slowdown generally indicate a slowing down of the money markets too? For instance:
Fresh signs of US slowdown

suckling off the teat of an inflated real estate market for a few years in LA has been good. as it slows down and interest rates go up, i get real scared. there just won't be as many people pumping money into residential construction.

I think things are slowing, and for the small offices that don't have very wealthy clients it will probably mean trouble... we've gotten the feeling that people are very hesitant from the last few meetings for potential jobs we've had. The combination of high/rising construction costs and stagnating housing value scares people - here in LA most people seem to be maxed out on what they owe - the last few years when prop values were going up 20%/yr people threw caution a bit to the wind and were willing to spend because they were sure to get it back. Now that values may only go up a little or potentially even decline, I get the feeling people are severely downsizing their plans or not going forward at all (or worse, hiring the cheapest guy to do a questionable job...).

yeah, it's anyone's guess. From my point of view, those that really care about a new home - buying property, hiring and architect, etc., will increase because they'll be looking for deals. The speculators will be pulling out the market, opening up deals for folks like me that want to buy for the long term, build a nice home, etc.

who knows, far too early to really know.

Yeah it seems to me that after an initial period of anxiety that stalls building, people will shift into long-term building and away from short-term investment schemes. This could be good b/c it could indicate a shift of values toward quality building (and thus, design) and away from cheap quickie stuff.