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US Job Market Now

zaza

Are we in a downturn now in the US, you think? I'm starting to notice hiring is freezing and pay is not as competitive as it was a few months ago. I want to change jobs but wondering if I should hold on to what I have. 

 
Sep 26, 22 4:20 pm

I haven't noticed anything but you don't know where I am and I don't know where you are.  Location is a rather important aspect of your question.  

Sep 26, 22 4:26 pm  · 
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x-jla

depending on the market, it’s in the making.  No one in their right mind is going to sell their house where they have a decent locked interest rate to buy a new house with a high rate.  It’s just not happening unless money is not an option.  New Development and home sales will definitely slow as rates increase.  This will exacerbate the housing shortage.  If your market is remodeling, then you will likely stay busy as people choose to fix up what they have rather than leave.  However, the sector second mortgage borrowers will think twice.  It’s a good market for high end -cash on hand -remodeling projects.  Bad market for new builds.  About 1/2 of my clients rely on borrowing, so I will probably see a slowdown among that demographic.  



Sep 26, 22 4:44 pm  · 
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x-jla

As usual the rich homeowner with savings will do fine. Everyone else will get the shit end of the stick.

Sep 26, 22 4:46 pm  · 
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It's 'in the market' if you only do new single family home projects for developers. If not then your experience will vary. Our firm for example doesn't do single family homes and we're still busy.

Sep 26, 22 5:42 pm  · 
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x-jla

Everyone is still busy as of now, but the cliff is on the horizon.

Sep 27, 22 10:45 am  · 
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Could be. Then again this is nothing new. There is always a cliff of some sort on the horizon.

Sep 27, 22 10:54 am  · 
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not sure how this went to the housing market but... come to atlanta. there's so many job openings it's insane. i'm sure some firms will start to slow down but literally everyone i know is looking for staff. check LI - that's probably got the most listings on it. also check the aia billings report if you don't believe me - southeast is way ahead of every other region in terms of billings strength. 

Sep 26, 22 10:35 pm  · 
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greenlander1

there's a lag btw when the effect of interest rates kick in.  How much tough to say.

I know here in LA, there's been a dropoff in projects getting underway mainly bc financing costs screwed things up.  Existing projects already financed will be fine. 

Guessing once the existing projects get closer to completion, thats when the slowdown will really become visible.

Sep 27, 22 12:12 am  · 
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flatroof

Projects are starting to be put on hold. New ones are drying up or pretty small in scope. Rate hikes will continue into 2023 and hold into 2024 according to fed. Mortgage rates are 7%+ and climbing. Could see 9 or 10% by eoy. It will be a red Christmas at firms this year. 

Sep 27, 22 10:23 am  · 
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greenlander1

where are you located?

Sep 27, 22 12:53 pm  · 
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greenlander1

So far, the Fed language has been super adamant about intentionally driving the economy into recession to burn off demand thats driving inflation. My guess is they will also overdo it as the cabal will want their buddies to buy able to buy assets on the cheap when things get bad.

Sep 27, 22 12:55 pm  · 
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x-jla

I’m pretty sure it has broader goals than that. It’s a global phenomena.

Sep 27, 22 1:21 pm  · 
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x-jla

The govt likes one thing more than money, and a little fear and despair is how they will get it.

Sep 27, 22 1:26 pm  · 
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I know! I have been searching for about a month an entry level position as an Architectural Designer in the Chicago area and still without a response. I am pretty sure I have a good CV and Portfolio, even with a completed project already published in Archdaily.... The market is bad at least in Chicago.

Sep 27, 22 2:55 pm  · 
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That's just how Chicago is in general.  You'll need more than hammocks and trellis's to impress the big A firms in Chicago.  


Sep 27, 22 5:44 pm  · 
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joshuascencio

It seems like it!... considering it's only been a year since I completed my B.Arch...

Sep 27, 22 6:59 pm  · 
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DickCheney

You will be alright. Plenty of places in Chicago are hiring. It all depends what type of work you are into. Good luck!

Sep 27, 22 9:38 pm  · 
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dominiond

Would you consider a move to the Washington DC areas? Tons of firms are hiring here. If you have decent Revit skills and a good portfolio, you should not have an issue. Our firm just hired 5 entry level Archs so we are full but I know that many firms (corporate and small) are looking for talent.


If you are worried about cost of living, rents are coming down because there is so much new apartment product and the older Millennial flight to the suburbs. DC area is funny like that- the close in suburbs can be more expensive than the great, walkable city neighborhoods. 

Oct 1, 22 9:11 am  · 
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