I dont think anyone knows how far (or how well) all of this will go, but it feels like potentially the beginnings of the most important social revolution in decades. If Mubarak can fall, so can any totalitarian dictator in the middle east. Im still wondering how Obama will pivot back to "Oh yea,.. democracy!" after meticulously kissing their asses for the last 2 years.
And another quick point, definitely its being covered, here and there, with some hapless foreign correspondant grabbing the camera and begging "Pay ATTENTION", only to be thrown back to wolf blitzers lobotomized gaze into mental nothingness. But the contrast of coverage and just public conversation between this and Iran's Green Wave is staggering. Its like the US press mentions it, grudgingly, because they have to because guardian did, but because it doesnt fit into some nice liberal rescue fantasy weve been nurturing since the Ayatolla came back nobody really gives a shit or knows what to say about it. Doesnt anyone get how big this is? Have they begun to imagine how different the world will look if this spreads to Jordan? Syria? Saudi Arabia?
i thought turkey was a democracy, is this not the case, or is it considered part of europe? is iraq just basically not considered a democracy (i'm not being facetious)
oe: great point re: difference between coverage of this and Iranian post-election turmoil.
The thing that has shocked me mopst about both the US government stance and the reporting I ahve seen so far from US news media is the way they seem to be focusing mostly on how this instability is bad. Mainly because whether Egypt or Yemen it puts into questions or current alliances on range of issues from Mid East peace process (cough, cough) to joint efforts to figh 'terrorism'.
However, the default assumption seems to be that a its better to have a dictator w know and trust that possible instability. Which stricks me as very Kissingerian realpolitik...
Secondly and tied up with first assumption seems to be the idea that the likely resulting governments would be anti-us policies in above listed areas..
My thought is that sure we don't know what the resulting governments polciies would be, but i don't think we can assume that it would be either anti-american or islamist (at least not in an extremist sense).
I think it really is a chance for use to stop being so hypocritical about our support for democracy and to actually stand/push for open/democratic governments in these areas...
In my reading of the situations it seems in the various countries the turmoil has more to do with lack of economic opportunities, corruption and lack of political/press freedoms than a specific islamic or other ideology...
the us supported an autocratic regime in iran, only to have it replaced by a hostile government after the revolution. i'm sure that this place into our leaders calculus. my guess would also be that disgruntled middle easterners are probably more than aware of why their leadership is kept in power and probably have a fair amount of animosity toward the united states, regardless if they are secular or religious. i would.
le bossman,
in short, turkey is a democracy but it is not a country geopolitically and officially part of middle east. historically and currently it has ties, influence in the region and growing trade, but mainly all its official affairs, customs agreements, diplomatic business, memberships are with europe and the west. it is in final stages of negotiations with eu. it is constantly working on certain chapters called acquis. there are a lot of issues with turkey's inclusion to eu but not all related official business. its culture and religion constantly used for internal political gains of eu leaders opposing to its membership. mainly sarkozy and merkel. if membership ever happens it will happen sometimes in this decade. it would be a huge step for eu for many reasons and turkey would be one of the powerhouses in eu's bigger decision making members with large representation in brussels. this is really the reason of the opposition.
but turks are not without choices. it is fast becoming economic success story with global crises already left behind with impressive growth rates.
iraq is officially an occupied country. what kind of a democracy an occupied country can have?
A huge thing that a lot of people here seem not to think about, is that even after the Shah, american bullshit in Iran would have been far easier to forgive had we not paid off Saddam to invade and drop (our) nerve gas on them right while the post-revolution politics were shaking out. These people arent pissed at us for no reason, weve literally killed millions of them.
A far cry from nerve gas, but the dictatorship and massive institutional corruption these people are fighting is directly funded by us. All that teargas and anti-riot gear theyre being clobbered by is payed for by your taxes. I know thats not how administrators here choose to see it, but thats the truth of whats happening.
Again, who knows how this unfolds, but there does seem to be a bit of a windshift in the US. Its pretty strange to watch tea party people calling for shutting off foreign aid to Israel and Bill Cohen getting openly ridiculed for supporting Mubarak on MSNBC.
Well, who knows who has a real democracy anyway. Even here candidates have got quite the lobby-group punch card to fill out before they let you through a primary. I might start to think of Israel as a democracy after they decide if 4 million people living in militarized bantustans can vote or not. :\
iran may not be considered a middle eastern country per se, but it was an autocratic regime in the region supported by the US with negative consequences for US foreign policy. iraq may be an occupied country, but then arguably so may be japan, germany, and south korea, among others. i mentioned iraq because i was curious if you had contacts there who have a feel for just how corrupt the relationship between washington and iraq may or may not be, and the extent to which it's government functions (or is perceived) as a true, independent democracy and will continue to (or not) after the occupation ends.
oe, i agree with what you said. but in here when we say democracy, we are talking about basic rights you and i enjoy without thinking too much of them. like multi party elections, opposition party etc..
bossman, all those countries you mention pretty much have the full control of their resources (read oil in iraq's case) trade, foreign affairs, and so on. and they are not in constant turmoil but economic forces leading the world.
It seems to me there are two types of leaders in human history: those who understand that idleness, youth and a little knowledge is a recipie for revolution, and those that don't. The leaders who understand this fact are usually the ones that get the most press in history textbooks.
On that note, with all the young, unemployed, mostly male college grads sitting around in the U.S. I'm wondering how long it will be before we start seeing similar scenes here.
anyway, getting back to subject, what is happening in tunusia, egypt, yemen, iran is huge and i would love to see they succeed in terms of owning their own destiny. but i warn you, the results may not be as easy to accept for the west as it was dealing with bunch of dictators we were bribing in many ways.
israeli think tanks are fast scrambling for strategies because these events has crucial implications for them too.
for all sides, there are a lot of potentially great things can come out of this.
i think the phrase is worn out but i can't help it, "change is good."
Jan 28, 11 1:08 pm ·
·
When gasoline prices rise to $10/gallon then we might see riots in the US. Otherwise, not to worry because we got too much Super Bowl, yo!
From Article: "Across all four countries, the protest movements are "largely driven by young people" and include a "high proportion of the educated middle class," he said. There's "a feeling amongst that middle class that they're not being given the opportunities in life that their degrees warrant -- what historians would call a 'blocked elite.'"
@Apurimac: Waiting on that myself. I see the same ingredients here. I don't ever see the US military being allied or at least sympathetic to a rebelling population, though.
I think the U.S. military would be more sympathetic to American civilians rather than the feds given the right circumstances. Remember all those soldiers, sailors, and marines are people like the rest of us.
Also, U.S. officers make an oath to uphold The Constitution and not to the U.S. Government per se. Theoretically officers are supposed to disobey commands if they conflict with the Constitution, which using violent force to suppress freedom of speech and freedom of assembly would.
(Insert Kent State Massacre picture here to refute my above point)
from what I understand tipping point was the sudden rise in the cost of food. It think oil and sugar. This seems to be left out of most of the discussion of what is going on in the commercial media.
that is exactly what i am saying about the west not necessarily finding the changes friendly or subservient. we need to understand and stop regarding their choices as danger to us or axis of evil and the like. but treat them with respect and co operation and with fairness. these societies have different traditions, values and ways. we need to treat them with respect and recognition. i have been saying this for years around here.
the younger populations in those countries are educated, unemployed and have ideals for better life and voice. with the advance of internet they are very aware of what their counterparts in other places are entitled and capable of. they want no less.
Orhan, I'm not worried about us, I'm worried about them. Robespierre was highly educated with his countries best interests at heart when he started out and before long he was collecting heads with the best of them. Revolutions are messy, I just hope for everyone's sake what were seeing will be one of the cleaner ones.
Great conversation, very informative i hope it continues. Id just like to interject a bit of reality though. Whether or not you agree, the reality seems to be that the US is invested in doing everything possible to put US friendly governments in power, and prop up US friendly governments wherever possible. Obviously, it would be fantastic if we stepped aside and let middle eastern self determination flourish. However, it has been for many many years, and will likely be for many many years, that the US government will feel that self determination will most likely be detrimental to our national interests. Im talking oil and natural resources of course, but im also talking national security.
So...whats my point... i suppose i dont actually know, im not trying to make any value judgement, im just interested in hearing REAL conversation about solutions. Egypt, lebanon, isreal, palestine, algeria... these places dont exist in a vacuum, nor does the US. They influence each other significantly. So yes, lets love all our neighbors, thats the high ideal. But the immediate reality is very different.
So heres all Im saying. Obama is a regular ass guy. He had a lot of talent, a lot of intelligence, and for whatever reason people heaped a lot of hope on him. Maybe thats unfair. Maybe thats unwarranted. But it entails responsibility. People are waiting for the guy to do the right thing.
The reason the the media is focusing on stability is that if it gets worse, if the Suez Canal becomes in danger, then we've got some serious problems, world wide.
1 million barrels per day goes through there. Seems like everyone thinks those chances are small, but people are making bets against some oil companies in the area
No stability = more expensive oil = killing our economic recovery
oe - al jazeera is being nice because they know that the current admin is friendly to reform in the region. plus the prez not going to come out hard-line because it would totally f-k things up and we'd end up with a regime that no one wants (not even the egyptians).
al jazeera was never unfriendly to americans, europeans and whomever. in fact, many of their staff are internationals and they are based in doha, qatar, an open and accessible country. it is just that we couldn't stand their journalistic excellence, capability, resourcefulness, reporting the way it was/is from iraq and the wider region during thick of the iraq war and now. we needed to lie our citizens about a lot of things to get their support for the war, which we still do. al jazeera was a problem for outing our media propaganda, which they still do.
WTF - egypt is where Iraq used to be? maybe that's why they're protesting.
orhan - who's this Dr. ElBaradei guy? aside from winning a nobel peace prize and his (correct) criticism of the Bush admin's run up to the Iraq war, do you know if he has any clout?
I think Mubarak is going to have to step down - it's just a matter of time.
toaster, i don't know about dr. baradei in depth. from what i understand and know from his role during pre and post iraq war days, he is a man of conscience, ethics and he is a humanist.
egypt, right now, needs an internationally recognized leader figure to transit into a different era. he is the right man to do that and his already established relationships with world leaders and experience in diplomacy and statemanship are big plus. i think eventually muslim brotherhood party will gain majority control and the world should not act to alienate them and render them out of process or danger to egypt. they have the big popular base. we have done that mistake by stereotyping this type of political entities in islamic societies. we need to be respectful to their choices.
the egyptian army is another entity in all this and that complexity must be understood. it is the biggest employer in egypt and the army is mostly a secular group. the army needs to maintain its secular position and distance itself from dictatorship. it is not always easy to build civilian democratic control of the armed forces. it is a big challenge and this probably will take the longest time.
as soon as this transition happens, there are big tasks are waiting the egyptian leaders. economy is in shambles and the unemployment is very high. all these people on the streets will need jobs and better life. in fact, that is what they are really demanding now.
personally, i would want to see dr. bradei leading the democratization of egypt but i don't really know if he has the long term support of the egyptian people.
egypt is a great society and really the center of arab culture. they certainly have all ingredients to lead the region and set a huge influence on their neighbors. there are a lot of potentially great opportunities in terms of peace and prosperity waiting to happen in the middle east and we all hope (i do) they become reality.
I really though Egypt was in Africa, not middle east. I wonder how a NYC real estate would try to sell that one. SoGrIta (south-of-greece-and-Italy).
On a slightly more serious note, I'm really annoyed by the official statements by western governments, Democracy blah blah blah human rights blah. Way to miss the point. People are rioting because they are close to starving, and don't see any improvements in immediate future. They couldn't give a flying fuck about ideological walhallas.
I came to American continent in early 90's as a war refugee from a European country that tried to shift from totalitarianism to democracy overnight. And failed. Miserably.
I really hope Egypt doesn't fall into the same trap.
Is it insensitive for me to say that I don't really care about the Middle East?
The Ottoman Empire is ooovvvverrrrr. It's been over for like 88 years. None of business anymore.
We also need to stop talking about OPEC like it is still relevant. The only thing the Middle East has that we want is easily refine-able oil. Russia combined with Venezuela puts the Middle East oil reserves to shame. The West may not be on good terms with Venezuela or Russia but both countries have been extending the olive branch over the last few years.
While there's sweet and cheap oil in the Middle East, that place has almost no valuable mineral reserves.
The West (especially the US) just needs to ignore the Middle East altogether and start being buddies with countries who have substantial reserves of all the other precious chemicals we need like gallium, iridium, titanium and so on.
"Way to miss the point. People are rioting because they are close to starving, and don't see any improvements in immediate future."
I dont think theyre off base in the slightest. The extreme wealth disparity and general economic failure in Egypt is completely related to its unresponsive and intransigent political structure.
Im certainly with you though in your concern that despite all the hope, things could go very very wrong in the coming years.
"It's not our business."
At this point, I think most protesters in Egypt would say they dont give a fuck what we have to say anyway, but that doesnt make our stance and diplomatic efforts irrelevant. We do still have enormous influence, and after all of the bullshit weve put people through its absolutely our obligation to act in the most responsible way possible. A lot of that frankly is just getting the fuck out of the way, but thats not to say being stronger in our vocal support for these peoples basic human rights and aspirations wouldnt mean something to them and be hugely helpful in the long run.
Im with you that our obsession with the middle east seems grossly disproportionate, even in terms of real-politik colonial resource acquisition, but there are a lot of other factors to it. The Suez Canal is still a pretty vital waterway, and despite all of the under-the-breathiness of its mention, Israel is still a huge factor in US decision making over there.
Huckabee also urged strong U.S.-Israeli ties, saying that "good Israeli-U.S. relations are not just an option."
"They are rather the obligation of all of us in the American government," he said. "It is inconceivable in many ways that we would have to even argue and debate whether or not Israelis could live in Israel, not just in parts of Israel but anywhere in Israel they wished to live."
So I suppose you have no trouble with arabs living anywhere in Israel either? Go fuck yourself mike.
"I cannot imagine as an American being told that I could not live in certain places in America because I was Christian, or because I was white, or because I spoke English. I would be outraged if someone told me that in my country, I would be prohibited and forbidden to live in a part of that country, for any reason."
oe:"I dont think theyre off base in the slightest. The extreme wealth disparity and general economic failure in Egypt is completely related to its unresponsive and intransigent political structure."
For a second there you had me fooled into thinking you were talking about the US.
Democracy has proven to have a longer shelf life than all other ways to organize a society (as far as political systems that promise some level of fairness and equality). But even democracy can go to a shitter in blink of an eye.
Slaping on democracy on a society that has problems much, much bigger than lack of debate and hoping for miraculous results is foolish.
Sounds to me like Egypt is in dire need of economic reform right now. This is not something a populous vote can solve.
1 million barrels up the suez...egyptian pirates? No brainer to me
According to CNN or something the US contributes 165 billion a year to Egypt.
Media and government are some silly people I wouldn't take anything they say seriously.
Its getting better. I read an article a bit earlier with quotes from someone at the state department who said in the first few days they were concerned that publicly cutting him loose would make the establishment feel as if their backs were against the wall, and increase the likelihood of a violent standoff or an order to the military to fire into the crowd. But as time goes by it seems increasingly obvious that the military will not do that, that even if the order was given the troops would refuse and it would be the end for anyone in leadership who endorsed the order.
So who knows. Telling a foreign leader to step down is a bit of an arrogant thing to do, no matter the relationship. But at this point I dont see a great deal of risk, nobody but Mubarak would be upset by it, it only strengthens the reformists hand, and showing wholehearted solidarity with the people in the streets would still mean a great deal.
The Middle East is Turning Over,
And to be charitable, America is clueless,
http://www.thedailybeast.com/blogs-and-stories/2011-01-27/obamas-support-for-egypt-protesters-risks-a-key-ally/2/
To be more honest, we have no credibility anyway..
http://www.thedailybeast.com/blogs-and-stories/2011-01-26/mohamed-elbaradei-the-return-of-the-challenger/
http://english.aljazeera.net/
I dont think anyone knows how far (or how well) all of this will go, but it feels like potentially the beginnings of the most important social revolution in decades. If Mubarak can fall, so can any totalitarian dictator in the middle east. Im still wondering how Obama will pivot back to "Oh yea,.. democracy!" after meticulously kissing their asses for the last 2 years.
And another quick point, definitely its being covered, here and there, with some hapless foreign correspondant grabbing the camera and begging "Pay ATTENTION", only to be thrown back to wolf blitzers lobotomized gaze into mental nothingness. But the contrast of coverage and just public conversation between this and Iran's Green Wave is staggering. Its like the US press mentions it, grudgingly, because they have to because guardian did, but because it doesnt fit into some nice liberal rescue fantasy weve been nurturing since the Ayatolla came back nobody really gives a shit or knows what to say about it. Doesnt anyone get how big this is? Have they begun to imagine how different the world will look if this spreads to Jordan? Syria? Saudi Arabia?
Its already happening..
http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/babylonbeyond/2011/01/jordan-protests-king-reform-government-muslim-brotherhood-.html
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-12295864
ironically there are two freely elected governments in middle east. one called democratic > likud in israel and one called terrorist > hamas in gaza.
indeed, this is very significant but not at all unexpected.
How To Follow Egyptian Protests On Social Media
http://www.neontommy.com/news/2011/01/how-follow-egyptian-protests-social-media
orhan
i thought turkey was a democracy, is this not the case, or is it considered part of europe? is iraq just basically not considered a democracy (i'm not being facetious)
Tunisia and Algeria has all the right ingredients for full-fledged democracy but I'm not so sure about Egypt.
A lot of uncertain elements....
oe: great point re: difference between coverage of this and Iranian post-election turmoil.
The thing that has shocked me mopst about both the US government stance and the reporting I ahve seen so far from US news media is the way they seem to be focusing mostly on how this instability is bad. Mainly because whether Egypt or Yemen it puts into questions or current alliances on range of issues from Mid East peace process (cough, cough) to joint efforts to figh 'terrorism'.
However, the default assumption seems to be that a its better to have a dictator w know and trust that possible instability. Which stricks me as very Kissingerian realpolitik...
Secondly and tied up with first assumption seems to be the idea that the likely resulting governments would be anti-us policies in above listed areas..
My thought is that sure we don't know what the resulting governments polciies would be, but i don't think we can assume that it would be either anti-american or islamist (at least not in an extremist sense).
I think it really is a chance for use to stop being so hypocritical about our support for democracy and to actually stand/push for open/democratic governments in these areas...
In my reading of the situations it seems in the various countries the turmoil has more to do with lack of economic opportunities, corruption and lack of political/press freedoms than a specific islamic or other ideology...
the us supported an autocratic regime in iran, only to have it replaced by a hostile government after the revolution. i'm sure that this place into our leaders calculus. my guess would also be that disgruntled middle easterners are probably more than aware of why their leadership is kept in power and probably have a fair amount of animosity toward the united states, regardless if they are secular or religious. i would.
le bossman,
in short, turkey is a democracy but it is not a country geopolitically and officially part of middle east. historically and currently it has ties, influence in the region and growing trade, but mainly all its official affairs, customs agreements, diplomatic business, memberships are with europe and the west. it is in final stages of negotiations with eu. it is constantly working on certain chapters called acquis. there are a lot of issues with turkey's inclusion to eu but not all related official business. its culture and religion constantly used for internal political gains of eu leaders opposing to its membership. mainly sarkozy and merkel. if membership ever happens it will happen sometimes in this decade. it would be a huge step for eu for many reasons and turkey would be one of the powerhouses in eu's bigger decision making members with large representation in brussels. this is really the reason of the opposition.
but turks are not without choices. it is fast becoming economic success story with global crises already left behind with impressive growth rates.
iraq is officially an occupied country. what kind of a democracy an occupied country can have?
iran is not a middle eastern country either.
"cough, cough"
^ is closer to the truth.
A huge thing that a lot of people here seem not to think about, is that even after the Shah, american bullshit in Iran would have been far easier to forgive had we not paid off Saddam to invade and drop (our) nerve gas on them right while the post-revolution politics were shaking out. These people arent pissed at us for no reason, weve literally killed millions of them.
A far cry from nerve gas, but the dictatorship and massive institutional corruption these people are fighting is directly funded by us. All that teargas and anti-riot gear theyre being clobbered by is payed for by your taxes. I know thats not how administrators here choose to see it, but thats the truth of whats happening.
Again, who knows how this unfolds, but there does seem to be a bit of a windshift in the US. Its pretty strange to watch tea party people calling for shutting off foreign aid to Israel and Bill Cohen getting openly ridiculed for supporting Mubarak on MSNBC.
Re: Orhan
Well, who knows who has a real democracy anyway. Even here candidates have got quite the lobby-group punch card to fill out before they let you through a primary. I might start to think of Israel as a democracy after they decide if 4 million people living in militarized bantustans can vote or not. :\
iran may not be considered a middle eastern country per se, but it was an autocratic regime in the region supported by the US with negative consequences for US foreign policy. iraq may be an occupied country, but then arguably so may be japan, germany, and south korea, among others. i mentioned iraq because i was curious if you had contacts there who have a feel for just how corrupt the relationship between washington and iraq may or may not be, and the extent to which it's government functions (or is perceived) as a true, independent democracy and will continue to (or not) after the occupation ends.
thanks for the info
oe, i agree with what you said. but in here when we say democracy, we are talking about basic rights you and i enjoy without thinking too much of them. like multi party elections, opposition party etc..
bossman, all those countries you mention pretty much have the full control of their resources (read oil in iraq's case) trade, foreign affairs, and so on. and they are not in constant turmoil but economic forces leading the world.
It seems to me there are two types of leaders in human history: those who understand that idleness, youth and a little knowledge is a recipie for revolution, and those that don't. The leaders who understand this fact are usually the ones that get the most press in history textbooks.
On that note, with all the young, unemployed, mostly male college grads sitting around in the U.S. I'm wondering how long it will be before we start seeing similar scenes here.
anyway, getting back to subject, what is happening in tunusia, egypt, yemen, iran is huge and i would love to see they succeed in terms of owning their own destiny. but i warn you, the results may not be as easy to accept for the west as it was dealing with bunch of dictators we were bribing in many ways.
israeli think tanks are fast scrambling for strategies because these events has crucial implications for them too.
for all sides, there are a lot of potentially great things can come out of this.
i think the phrase is worn out but i can't help it, "change is good."
When gasoline prices rise to $10/gallon then we might see riots in the US. Otherwise, not to worry because we got too much Super Bowl, yo!
From Article: "Across all four countries, the protest movements are "largely driven by young people" and include a "high proportion of the educated middle class," he said. There's "a feeling amongst that middle class that they're not being given the opportunities in life that their degrees warrant -- what historians would call a 'blocked elite.'"
@Apurimac: Waiting on that myself. I see the same ingredients here. I don't ever see the US military being allied or at least sympathetic to a rebelling population, though.
I think the U.S. military would be more sympathetic to American civilians rather than the feds given the right circumstances. Remember all those soldiers, sailors, and marines are people like the rest of us.
Also, U.S. officers make an oath to uphold The Constitution and not to the U.S. Government per se. Theoretically officers are supposed to disobey commands if they conflict with the Constitution, which using violent force to suppress freedom of speech and freedom of assembly would.
(Insert Kent State Massacre picture here to refute my above point)
@ Orhan
I think what's going on in Tunisia and Egypt is great, but I am extremely concerned as to what the resulting governments will look like.
from what I understand tipping point was the sudden rise in the cost of food. It think oil and sugar. This seems to be left out of most of the discussion of what is going on in the commercial media.
that is exactly what i am saying about the west not necessarily finding the changes friendly or subservient. we need to understand and stop regarding their choices as danger to us or axis of evil and the like. but treat them with respect and co operation and with fairness. these societies have different traditions, values and ways. we need to treat them with respect and recognition. i have been saying this for years around here.
the younger populations in those countries are educated, unemployed and have ideals for better life and voice. with the advance of internet they are very aware of what their counterparts in other places are entitled and capable of. they want no less.
Orhan, I'm not worried about us, I'm worried about them. Robespierre was highly educated with his countries best interests at heart when he started out and before long he was collecting heads with the best of them. Revolutions are messy, I just hope for everyone's sake what were seeing will be one of the cleaner ones.
Live stream:
http://english.aljazeera.net/watch_now/
Great conversation, very informative i hope it continues. Id just like to interject a bit of reality though. Whether or not you agree, the reality seems to be that the US is invested in doing everything possible to put US friendly governments in power, and prop up US friendly governments wherever possible. Obviously, it would be fantastic if we stepped aside and let middle eastern self determination flourish. However, it has been for many many years, and will likely be for many many years, that the US government will feel that self determination will most likely be detrimental to our national interests. Im talking oil and natural resources of course, but im also talking national security.
So...whats my point... i suppose i dont actually know, im not trying to make any value judgement, im just interested in hearing REAL conversation about solutions. Egypt, lebanon, isreal, palestine, algeria... these places dont exist in a vacuum, nor does the US. They influence each other significantly. So yes, lets love all our neighbors, thats the high ideal. But the immediate reality is very different.
I get it, youre hedging. But fucking come on man, you want to be reagan you gotta earn that shit.
Also, note just how nice Al Jazeera is being to us.^ Especially when we are so far from earning it.
So heres all Im saying. Obama is a regular ass guy. He had a lot of talent, a lot of intelligence, and for whatever reason people heaped a lot of hope on him. Maybe thats unfair. Maybe thats unwarranted. But it entails responsibility. People are waiting for the guy to do the right thing.
The reason the the media is focusing on stability is that if it gets worse, if the Suez Canal becomes in danger, then we've got some serious problems, world wide.
1 million barrels per day goes through there. Seems like everyone thinks those chances are small, but people are making bets against some oil companies in the area
No stability = more expensive oil = killing our economic recovery
oe - al jazeera is being nice because they know that the current admin is friendly to reform in the region. plus the prez not going to come out hard-line because it would totally f-k things up and we'd end up with a regime that no one wants (not even the egyptians).
OIL and gold is the key to buy next week. This rivot won't be done in just two weeks.
al jazeera was never unfriendly to americans, europeans and whomever. in fact, many of their staff are internationals and they are based in doha, qatar, an open and accessible country. it is just that we couldn't stand their journalistic excellence, capability, resourcefulness, reporting the way it was/is from iraq and the wider region during thick of the iraq war and now. we needed to lie our citizens about a lot of things to get their support for the war, which we still do. al jazeera was a problem for outing our media propaganda, which they still do.
all the while the fox news still proudly trying to set some standards to back their motto, “We Report; You Decide”
WTF - egypt is where Iraq used to be? maybe that's why they're protesting.
orhan - who's this Dr. ElBaradei guy? aside from winning a nobel peace prize and his (correct) criticism of the Bush admin's run up to the Iraq war, do you know if he has any clout?
I think Mubarak is going to have to step down - it's just a matter of time.
toaster, i don't know about dr. baradei in depth. from what i understand and know from his role during pre and post iraq war days, he is a man of conscience, ethics and he is a humanist.
egypt, right now, needs an internationally recognized leader figure to transit into a different era. he is the right man to do that and his already established relationships with world leaders and experience in diplomacy and statemanship are big plus. i think eventually muslim brotherhood party will gain majority control and the world should not act to alienate them and render them out of process or danger to egypt. they have the big popular base. we have done that mistake by stereotyping this type of political entities in islamic societies. we need to be respectful to their choices.
the egyptian army is another entity in all this and that complexity must be understood. it is the biggest employer in egypt and the army is mostly a secular group. the army needs to maintain its secular position and distance itself from dictatorship. it is not always easy to build civilian democratic control of the armed forces. it is a big challenge and this probably will take the longest time.
as soon as this transition happens, there are big tasks are waiting the egyptian leaders. economy is in shambles and the unemployment is very high. all these people on the streets will need jobs and better life. in fact, that is what they are really demanding now.
personally, i would want to see dr. bradei leading the democratization of egypt but i don't really know if he has the long term support of the egyptian people.
egypt is a great society and really the center of arab culture. they certainly have all ingredients to lead the region and set a huge influence on their neighbors. there are a lot of potentially great opportunities in terms of peace and prosperity waiting to happen in the middle east and we all hope (i do) they become reality.
I really though Egypt was in Africa, not middle east. I wonder how a NYC real estate would try to sell that one. SoGrIta (south-of-greece-and-Italy).
On a slightly more serious note, I'm really annoyed by the official statements by western governments, Democracy blah blah blah human rights blah. Way to miss the point. People are rioting because they are close to starving, and don't see any improvements in immediate future. They couldn't give a flying fuck about ideological walhallas.
I came to American continent in early 90's as a war refugee from a European country that tried to shift from totalitarianism to democracy overnight. And failed. Miserably.
I really hope Egypt doesn't fall into the same trap.
Is it insensitive for me to say that I don't really care about the Middle East?
The Ottoman Empire is ooovvvverrrrr. It's been over for like 88 years. None of business anymore.
We also need to stop talking about OPEC like it is still relevant. The only thing the Middle East has that we want is easily refine-able oil. Russia combined with Venezuela puts the Middle East oil reserves to shame. The West may not be on good terms with Venezuela or Russia but both countries have been extending the olive branch over the last few years.
While there's sweet and cheap oil in the Middle East, that place has almost no valuable mineral reserves.
The West (especially the US) just needs to ignore the Middle East altogether and start being buddies with countries who have substantial reserves of all the other precious chemicals we need like gallium, iridium, titanium and so on.
It's not our business.
"Way to miss the point. People are rioting because they are close to starving, and don't see any improvements in immediate future."
I dont think theyre off base in the slightest. The extreme wealth disparity and general economic failure in Egypt is completely related to its unresponsive and intransigent political structure.
Im certainly with you though in your concern that despite all the hope, things could go very very wrong in the coming years.
"It's not our business."
At this point, I think most protesters in Egypt would say they dont give a fuck what we have to say anyway, but that doesnt make our stance and diplomatic efforts irrelevant. We do still have enormous influence, and after all of the bullshit weve put people through its absolutely our obligation to act in the most responsible way possible. A lot of that frankly is just getting the fuck out of the way, but thats not to say being stronger in our vocal support for these peoples basic human rights and aspirations wouldnt mean something to them and be hugely helpful in the long run.
Im with you that our obsession with the middle east seems grossly disproportionate, even in terms of real-politik colonial resource acquisition, but there are a lot of other factors to it. The Suez Canal is still a pretty vital waterway, and despite all of the under-the-breathiness of its mention, Israel is still a huge factor in US decision making over there.
Huckabee also urged strong U.S.-Israeli ties, saying that "good Israeli-U.S. relations are not just an option."
"They are rather the obligation of all of us in the American government," he said. "It is inconceivable in many ways that we would have to even argue and debate whether or not Israelis could live in Israel, not just in parts of Israel but anywhere in Israel they wished to live."
So I suppose you have no trouble with arabs living anywhere in Israel either? Go fuck yourself mike.
"I cannot imagine as an American being told that I could not live in certain places in America because I was Christian, or because I was white, or because I spoke English. I would be outraged if someone told me that in my country, I would be prohibited and forbidden to live in a part of that country, for any reason."
Sorry, this on the quote for context.
oe:"I dont think theyre off base in the slightest. The extreme wealth disparity and general economic failure in Egypt is completely related to its unresponsive and intransigent political structure."
For a second there you had me fooled into thinking you were talking about the US.
Democracy has proven to have a longer shelf life than all other ways to organize a society (as far as political systems that promise some level of fairness and equality). But even democracy can go to a shitter in blink of an eye.
Slaping on democracy on a society that has problems much, much bigger than lack of debate and hoping for miraculous results is foolish.
Sounds to me like Egypt is in dire need of economic reform right now. This is not something a populous vote can solve.
don't assume that a change in leadership in Egypt will result in some american style democracy.
@rustystuds Sounds to me like Egypt is in dire need of economic reform right now. This is not something a populous vote can solve.
and Vado, don't assume that a change in leadership in Egypt will result in some american style democracy.
I think you both hit the nail on the heads...
"For a second there you had me fooled into thinking you were talking about the US."
No kidding, sadly.
So obama seems to have cut the cord is this sufficient for those who were upset with obama's indirect support of mubarak thus far?
1 million barrels up the suez...egyptian pirates? No brainer to me
According to CNN or something the US contributes 165 billion a year to Egypt.
Media and government are some silly people I wouldn't take anything they say seriously.
Its getting better. I read an article a bit earlier with quotes from someone at the state department who said in the first few days they were concerned that publicly cutting him loose would make the establishment feel as if their backs were against the wall, and increase the likelihood of a violent standoff or an order to the military to fire into the crowd. But as time goes by it seems increasingly obvious that the military will not do that, that even if the order was given the troops would refuse and it would be the end for anyone in leadership who endorsed the order.
So who knows. Telling a foreign leader to step down is a bit of an arrogant thing to do, no matter the relationship. But at this point I dont see a great deal of risk, nobody but Mubarak would be upset by it, it only strengthens the reformists hand, and showing wholehearted solidarity with the people in the streets would still mean a great deal.
^1.6 billion, 1.3 for their military. Its still a lot though.
wtf?
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/41452744/ns/world_news-mideastn_africa/
our middle east policies just get more and more absurd
I love how no one in the american media is the slightest bit bothered by the fact that 30% of america is basing is vote on a messianic death cult.
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