so, just to muddy the waters of the study put out by georgetown university yesterday, this evening the wall street journal's reports on the Department of Labor's annual average unemployment figures, released today as part of the overall jobs report (positive news on the whole. still could have been better).
the findings? architecture had a BELOW average unemployment rate for 2011, with a 7.3% figure.
really. 7.3%. we're now officially a 'growth' industry again.
honestly, what's a boy to make of these two reports? one day we're being told that the world's imploding and the next we see an unemployment rate that's 6+% lower. there are a number of factors which could skew the lower figure (how many have given up, moved on, are underemployed, self employed, etc.). perhaps all we can glean is the obvious: our present rhymes with flux.
what's really telling about the figures in the bls survey are the numbers of people employed: 181,000 architects (not including naval or software). this is actually UP from the reported 141,200 architects in 2008 and well ahead of the projected 164,000 architects by 2018. but, you have to take these numbers with a grain of salt because, by their own admission, they don't count self-employed architects who, in their estimation, make up 21% of the profession.
so. perhaps what this confirms is, in part, what most of us have experienced: yes, the world temporarily stopped in 2008. yes, there were a ton of casualties. yes, it's picking up again. but the real question is: how quickly and is it sustained growth or merely 'green shoots' that could get whacked by any number of factors (europe's still shaky; china's slowing, the upcoming elections here freeze new development until after november, etc.).
can someone get the aia on this? i mean, really? does anyone have a hotline to robert ivy? why in the world can't they put their resources to use on this and settle the numbers once and for all?
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