The plot seems something like- automate the masses out of their jobs, sell “socialism” (government gives spending money to the masses), the masses spend that money in an ever shrinking number of corporate conglomerates, the rich get richer…the masses become a permanent consumer class…a powerless vector for the upward distribution of wealth…a perfect circle for the oligarchs.
Covid proves that is exactly how it will work. “Woke capitalism” IS the sheep’s clothing. Don’t fall for it. Automation will doom us to this fate.
This thread is a discussion of Automation and how it will unravel society, the architectural world, and political systems.
Non Sequitur
Jun 18, 21 12:28 pm
Automation from a social/political point of view?
Well, that's a relief, I expected this to be another 3D print houses to solve world hunger type discussion.
So, we're not consumer classes?
x-jla
Jun 18, 21 12:48 pm
We are the consumer class now, but we are still somewhat in the game, and we can manipulate the game, which allows us a relative level of freedom. Once removed from that, we become pure dependents, and the tit is the corporate oligarch. Covid has proven this. Amazon shares increased 3x while small businesses shrank and were regulated out of existence. Where did the stimulus checks ultimately end up?
Non Sequitur
Jun 18, 21 1:29 pm
Ignoring the fact that I'm working on 5 distribution warehouse projects in direct competition to Amazon (who happens to be right across the road from my client's site)... What are you suggesting? Obviously, small shops can't reasonably compete with shipping and overhead against giants, so should we subsidise them so they have a fighting chance? Limit the size of giants? Give everyone free puppy cuddles twice weekly to alleviate the stress of their empty consumer lives?
x-jla
Jun 18, 21 2:11 pm
I’m not suggesting anything. I’m predicting the weather
x-jla
Jun 18, 21 2:13 pm
Me: It looks like rain tomorrow. Everyone: are you suggesting we shoot giant maxi pads into the clouds?
Non Sequitur
Jun 18, 21 2:22 pm
Can't use proprietary brands if it's gov project... so better just stick to a vague description and hope it's not a giant soggy mess by the end of the day...
Miles Jaffe
Jun 18, 21 12:43 pm
The only automation I see is the mindless repeating of idioctic statements about "socialism", which in the US takes the form of corporate subsidies, tax breaks, quantitative easing, a tax system that rewards investment income and penalizes labor, etc.
It is an Archinect defect that threads by blocked users are visible.
x-jla
Jun 18, 21 12:49 pm
There is an impossibly thin line between socialism and oligarchy.
x-jla
Jun 18, 21 12:51 pm
That’s what most people like you don’t understand.
x-jla
Jun 18, 21 12:51 pm
Let’s keep this thread productive
tduds
Jun 18, 21 1:12 pm
There's an impossibly thin line between any system of civilization and oligarchy.
Non Sequitur
Jun 18, 21 1:17 pm
classic
x-jla
Jun 18, 21 1:20 pm
Fair enough, but socialism is an especially effective way to feed an oligarchy.
x-jla
Jun 18, 21 1:21 pm
I don’t think we can have a productive conversation about this topic until we open minds up and go beyond 20th century failed solutions
x-jla
Jun 18, 21 1:23 pm
Have you seen Wall-E. The Pixar movie? Even more accurate than Brave New World to explain where we are heading…
SneakyPete
Jun 18, 21 1:41 pm
Robot love is the future.
Witty Banter
Jun 22, 21 4:35 pm
How is socialism an effective way to feed an oligarchy? I'm guessing this is some kind of horseshoe theory thing but they're essentially opposite ends of the spectrum.
If the workers own the means of production how are they feeding an oligarchy?
SneakyPete
Jun 18, 21 12:51 pm
The first two "steps" are something I can live with, any competent gov't would anti-trust the conglomerates to dust, and there would be true choice, one in which I could CHOOSE to be a proper parent for my kid instead of being chained to a job while they grow up with less of my attention that primates are supposed to get.
But yeah, anything to slam woke whatever, right?
Next time try to have a single thought not infected by your stupid vendettas.
x-jla
Jun 18, 21 1:04 pm
But that’s a big part of how corporate America is priming things. Just because you don’t see it, doesn’t mean that it doesn’t exist. The term “woke capitalism” has been used to describe how corporations use culture to maintain control.
SneakyPete
Jun 18, 21 1:05 pm
Do you support the government breaking up these massive corps?
x-jla
Jun 18, 21 1:11 pm
No. I view the government as the biggest corporation of all.
x-jla
Jun 18, 21 1:13 pm
And we ought to break them up first by reducing their power, not increasing it.
SneakyPete
Jun 18, 21 1:40 pm
So you want to break up the only group large enough to wield power against the corps, then ... pray? hope? trust? the corps will ... break themselves up?
x-jla
Jun 18, 21 2:05 pm
I don’t claim to know the solution. I’m just pretty sure that giving more power to the government (that is largely beholden to the corporation) is not the solution.
tduds
Jun 18, 21 2:24 pm
Seems to me like the "beholden to the corporation" part is the problem, not the government itself.
x-jla
Jun 18, 21 5:23 pm
Chicks and eggs
x-jla
Jun 18, 21 5:25 pm
These corporations are not operating in a vacuum. Their power is because of the US government and global network of governments, not in spite of it.
SneakyPete
Jun 18, 21 5:33 pm
...which is why that needs to change. Disbanding the only group large enough to affect that change is foolish. Change that group and use it to do the right thing. Do you throw away an expensive knife that you cut yourself with because you let it get dull?
tduds
Jun 18, 21 9:08 pm
Good analogy Pete
x-jla
Jun 19, 21 1:39 pm
I think we can all agree that government should not be giving any special advantages and support to corporations, as they have. If we remove those advantages, we may see a slight leveling of the playing field. Second,
x-jla
Jun 19, 21 1:41 pm
globalization comes with a cost. The corporations who want to do business with foreign nations should be paying that cost, not the tax payer. The US security and military apparatus that clears the way for this type of foreign business dealings (oil, manufacturing,
x-jla
Jun 19, 21 1:44 pm
etc) should not be funded by the average tax payer. Let them pay for it. So, we don’t need to enlarge govt, we need to remove it in the right places, and use those resources elsewhere. This could be a bipartisan thing, but the state is deeply corrupted by corporations, so it’s a chicken egg senario.
x-jla
Jun 19, 21 1:44 pm
etc) should not be funded by the average tax payer. Let them pay for it. So, we don’t need to enlarge govt, we need to remove it in the right places, and use those resources elsewhere. This could be a bipartisan thing, but the state is deeply corrupted by corporations, so it’s a chicken egg senario.
x-jla
Jun 19, 21 1:49 pm
This is really one of the main libertarian arguments. The idea that we want to come after grandmas welfare is a scare tactic. There are many low hanging fruits, like agriculture subsidies, that are the main focus of people talking about shrinking govt. The neocons have taken this spirit and flipped it towards things like ss and welfare. In a perfect world we would eliminate everything, but that’s not something on most libertarians priority list.
archi_dude
Jun 18, 21 1:18 pm
Just shorten the work week to match the fall in human labor demand. This should have started happening decades ago but....globalization.
x-jla
Jun 18, 21 2:10 pm
Ok, but my point is eventually that will be zero days. Lol
archi_dude
Jun 18, 21 2:59 pm
I think Greek society offers a pretty good example of what might be an outcome. The upper class was involved in politics, art and philosophy. Work was not considered a important piece to make people feel fulfilled in life. A good book is "A world without work" It doesnt take a stance but looks at the studies where universal income was implemented and alcoholism shot up but countered with examples such as the one above. It also mentions how socialism might actually have to be the only answer but how do you keep a meritocracy in that scenario and does class mobility completely stop? All good questions but according to Tduds you need to stop thinking. It might lead you into discovering things against the narrative for the sheep.
tduds
Jun 18, 21 3:06 pm
Don't put words in my mouth to make yourself appear smart. If you have more than three brain cells you should be able to make your point just fine using things people actually said.
archi_dude
Jun 18, 21 3:15 pm
Reverting to a personal attack. Another debate won!
tduds
Jun 18, 21 3:42 pm
You cited something I didn't say. Pointing out that you did that is not a personal attack.
x-jla
Jun 18, 21 6:23 pm
This idea that you need proof or a complete dissertation to discuss ideas is problematic, especially for design professionals.
x-jla
Jun 18, 21 6:27 pm
Probably why some of us would have won the bet on whether the Wuhan novel coronavirus came from the Wuhan novel coronavirus lab (see Jon Stuart).
x-jla
Jun 18, 21 6:30 pm
archi-dude, absolutely. Work is much more than just bread. Humans, especially men, need work to fulfill their sense of purpose. Without that, we will degenerate.
tduds
Jun 18, 21 7:09 pm
Imagine the beautiful things we could create if, untethered from the need to get money to survive, we had true freedom to choose the labors
that give us that sense of purpose.
tduds
Jun 18, 21 7:11 pm
I don't need "proof" or "a dissertation", I suppose I just have a higher bar for what I consider a fruitful discussion. Happy to continue in honest discussion if anyone wants to expand on my questions below.
SneakyPete
Jun 18, 21 7:11 pm
tduds, get rich, lulz.
x-jla
Jun 18, 21 7:36 pm
Yes Tduds, that’s true. But it’s tricky to do enable that in a way that also doesn’t also lead to tyrannical restrictions on what you can create
.
SneakyPete
Jun 18, 21 8:08 pm
tyrannical restrictions on what you can create? the National Endowment for the Arts is holding on Line 2 to speak with you...
x-jla
Jun 18, 21 8:16 pm
Yeah, you probably wouldn’t have a problem apologizjng in mandarin like John Cena…but that’s where this goes. Creative liberty is absolutely connected to economic liberty.
x-jla
Jun 18, 21 8:24 pm
So, you can have something like a UBI, and some cottage industries would emerge possibly among those who’ve been displaced by automation I suppose. But only so many people would be capable of doing this. Many would probably degenerate.
tduds
Jun 18, 21 11:51 pm
[nevermind]
tduds
Jun 18, 21 1:28 pm
Lotta hypotheses presented as axioms & conclusions in this thread.
x-jla
Jun 18, 21 2:07 pm
Nothing wrong with any of that. It’s called thinking
x-jla
Jun 18, 21 2:08 pm
How many “conspiracy theories” have to be proven true to jerk your neck from the mainstream narrative?
tduds
Jun 18, 21 2:18 pm
The thing about theories is that the veracity of any one theory has little bearing on the veracity of theories in general. That's not how thinking works at all.
tduds
Jun 18, 21 2:20 pm
My point is you're presenting things as self-evident that very much are not, and then extrapolating some theories from those. My challenge is that you need to do a bit more work to convincingly
demonstrate the existence of your initial conditions before you propose actions to address them.
tduds
Jun 18, 21 2:22 pm
As usual I'm not so much countering your arguments as I am suggesting they're not yet coherent enough to be worth considering.
archi_dude
Jun 18, 21 2:54 pm
Ah like critical race theory.
tduds
Jun 18, 21 3:04 pm
Like you know what CRT is.
archi_dude
Jun 18, 21 3:14 pm
"Lotta hypotheses presented as axioms & conclusions in this thread" gets confronted by their own hypotheses getting presented as law not theory. Reverts to personal attacks. Lost the debate.
tduds
Jun 18, 21 3:42 pm
What?
tduds
Jun 18, 21 2:50 pm
The plot seems something like-
When you say "plot" it suggests intent with direction. What are you basing this on? It seems to me like there are a number of possible "motivations", including on one extreme your suggestion of a plot and also on the other extreme the simple inertia of millions of individually motivated decisions aggregating towards noticeable trends. And also a lot of middle ground between. This statement needs more history in order to demonstrate where along the spectrum the current condition lies.
automate the masses out of their jobs,
Permanent job loss due to automation has been a boogeyman stalking progress since the invention of the printing press. Data rarely supports it in the long term. There are periods of volatility, and I'd argue were very much in the middle of one right now, but eventually technologically-induced losses are offset by technologically-created industries. There is little, if any, evidence to suggest a "plot" to destroy jobs in order to achieve some end. What's far more likely is that this is a period of high volatility brought on by a massive shift in the paradigms of economics and the nature of work as a result of an explosion of technological progress over the past ~30 years. Not to say it's nothing to worry about, but it's a different thing to worry about which will require different solutions to assuage.
sell “socialism” (government gives spending money to the masses),
That's not what socialism is. There are many definitions of socialism, and many instantiations of socialist ideas within organizations. None of them (other than those given in bad faith to more easily discredit movements that threaten the current hegemony) are as simply defined as this.
the masses spend that money in an ever shrinking number of corporate conglomerates, the rich get richer…the masses become a permanent consumer class…a powerless vector for the upward distribution of wealth…a perfect circle for the oligarchs.
This is happening already under our system of under-regulated capitalism. Why would anyone put in all the effort to forcefully change the nature of global government to achieve essentially the same result as doing nothing?
Covid proves that is exactly how it will work.
How?
“Woke capitalism” IS the sheep’s clothing. Don’t fall for it.
Woke capitalism is still capitalism, and while I agree woke capitalism (as you call it) is a problem, I'd say you're wrongly fixating on the "woke" part and conveniently ignoring the "capitalism" part. Woke Capitalism, as I see it, is a cynical repackaging of cultural movements to sell product without addressing any of the aims of the movements. It co-opts moral language to provide consumption as a solution. It's purely capitalistic in nature.
Automation will doom us to this fate.
How?
This thread is a discussion of Automation
Is it? It seems more like a weak attempt to thread multiple semi-related bits of complex & chaotic global systems into a simple narrative that conveniently aligns with just about every other point you've ever made in these forums. Maybe we can get to an actual discussion of automation but we're not there yet.
and how it will unravel society, the architectural world, and political systems.
"and how it will" assumes it will. We can't discuss how without demonstrating if. I'd say you're far from convincing anyone of the "what", so leave the "how" for a while and make your case.
x-jla
Jun 18, 21 7:51 pm
Plot = “the main events of a play, novel, movie, or similar work, devised and presented by the writer as an interrelated sequence.“.
x-jla
Jun 18, 21 7:52 pm
The industrial rev is not same as robotics and AI
x-jla
Jun 18, 21 7:56 pm
Socialism and oligarchy goes hand in hand. The Chinese style cultural revolution happening in this country is maybe intentional, and 99.999% guaranteed to not benefit the masses, otherwise it wouldn’t be echoed by the political and corporate elite.
x-jla
Jun 18, 21 7:57 pm
Woke capitalism is capitalism that benefits from, or kneels to the strong arm of government. See Facebook, Twitter, etc.
x-jla
Jun 18, 21 7:59 pm
Taking away many jobs and not replacing them.
x-jla
Jun 18, 21 7:59 pm
That’s like your opinion man.
x-jla
Jun 18, 21 7:59 pm
Answered in order^ From phone
natematt
Jun 18, 21 3:18 pm
You can't stop technology. When it can do a job better, faster, and cheaper than a human, it will replace them. I would suspect little to no examples could be found in history where this was not true.
To Tdud's point, the data doesn't really support permanent job reduction, but at the same time, the threat that the rapid technological advancements could do this seems real to me. Technology is inevitable , if it generates new opportunities people will fill them, if it does not... we'll have to find a new way to live in a world that is fundamentally different than now. Could that way of living be socialism? No... I think it's laughable to compare a majority automated society with one that is not. Benevolent corporate oligarchy? maybe? I still think that the fundamental principles of any type or philosophy of government that has ever been used would fail to describe what would have to happen in this circumstance.
Not better, not faster: just cheaper, because that is the only thing that matters. Robots don't get sick, don't take days off, don't get health insurance and retirement benefits, can be replaced at will (ok, this one applies to pretty much all labor as well), etc.
Every tech is a double-edged sword, and both edges are used for profit first (and often last and only). Triple-edged when you count displaced labor.
The internet went from a magical information superhighway to a virtually gridlocked cesspool of advertising, datamining, and propaganda where ecommerce did to small business what interstate highways did to small towns.
rcz1001
Jun 19, 21 3:23 am
What I see would be a shift. While during the period of transitions, there will be displacement but that is often addressed by various programs for retraining which is and has been used to address the issue. Yes, some will be ultimately retired and kind of kicked to the curb which is how our society deals with those who can't 'adapt' and/or simply won't. There will always be new supply of people that will get the training (unless we kill ourselves off and then no one would have to worry about the future anymore... anyway).
midlander
Jun 18, 21 11:23 pm
time to reread Dune!
And get ready for the upcoming remake movie. And rewatch the amazing old one.
midlander
Jun 18, 21 11:44 pm
Also... the idea that technology will obviate the role of an entire social class and lead them to subordination by an oligarchic group of elite machine-owners is not a new idea. It arose in Europe in the nineteenth century during the first industrial age.
The most famous theoretician of this situation was Karl Marx, the exiled German (prussian rhineland) son of an ex-jewish lawyer. You should read his book Das Kaptial, it largely describes the problem you are worried about. He also wrote some hyperbolic theories of what will result from this situation which might appeal to your imagination even if they didn't accurately predict the future (right?).
x-jla
Jun 19, 21 1:36 pm
One can accurately define a problem, suggest a narrow simplistic causation, and then go on to propose a solution that is far more catastrophic than the problem itself, like Marx did.
midlander
Jun 19, 21 7:46 pm
yes i actually think that's the most common outcome - every era's major problems were the solution to the previous ones.
midlander
Jun 19, 21 2:57 am
(drunken thoughts) if there was a bot that automated posting on archinect would we all stop posting and reading posts?
i wouldn't, maybe. i like to think i'd spend my valuable time trolling the bots and trying to distinguish real posters from automated ones. there would possibly be an industry of antiautomated creators which most of us would participate in.
maybe rich people would pay us to do it and then it would be like art which changed once machines made replication simple to instead be a matter of cultural criticism and fantasy. at the high end that's what architecture already is about.
for ordinary working class people life is already tough and sometimes permanently unfair, which viewed over any long period of time is also a normal situation.
postwar america was the beneficiary of international economic political power which every major power stumbles into eventually and later stumbles out of. but these golden ages have nothing to do with internal economic systems or virtuous societies - they're just the temporary effect of technological upgrade and institutional development fed by an over accumulation of capital due to victory in war or a massive expansion of power relative to other countries. it's the power that matters.
somewhere above ancient greece was mentioned as an example of a state where the elite class was liberated from daily work. what happened to ancient greece and why didn't this system catch on? (note there was no such country as "ancient greece" and the various greek states never really established a uniform society or economic system. contrary to popular belief not all of them were even democratic!)
Miles Jaffe
Jun 19, 21 8:41 pm
The rich do whatever the fuck they want. Which is basically try to increase their wealth. Which is not work in any sense.
midlander
Jun 19, 21 10:39 pm
i think once they achieve wealth they look to develop power. that's the real danger for societies
Miles Jaffe
Jun 19, 21 11:54 pm
Money and power are one and the same, and always have been.
rcz1001
Jun 20, 21 1:18 am
Not really. Money is a form of power but power isn't always in the form of money. You can take the analogy of all squares are quadrilaterals but not all quadrilaterals are squares. That analogy would apply in the abstract of the point. Money may be a power but not all power is money. There was a time before money and yet there was power. Money is the fiat currency of properties, assets, and resources tradeable and through trade is the art to have the leverage in negotiation. It's all the art of negotiation (avoiding using the phrase that happens to be a title of a book associated with a douchebag). That's where power is... the leverage to compel another to your will and desire. Inferring on the meaning of power in this context.
rcz1001
Jun 19, 21 3:16 am
This is because we as a country (United States and some other countries) are moving away from being a Secondary Sector based economy to a Tertiary & Quaternary. Okay, most countries are composed of primary, secondary, tertiary, quaternary, and quinary but it's the ranking order of how our industries sectors are ordered in the importance of our economy. The Secondary sector is shrinking in the U.S. and shifting to tertiary and quaternary sectors which are growing. Our country will still have some strength in what we call the Primary sector even if it doesn't rank #1 in the economy and these are classification of industry sectors not necessary an indication of rank order.
Architects as a profession falls into tertiary sector. I work in both tertiary sector and quaternary sectors. The IT/tech industry is one of the most fastest and growing part of the quaternary sector. Tertiary and Quaternary sectors will make up a strong part of new emerging occupation types. These two sectors will probably be the drivers of jobs in the primary sector, influence decisions going on in and by the quinary sector and secondary industry is being either outsourced or being automated. Parts of the Tertiary sector might be replaced with automation especially the sectors involving minimum wage jobs that typically a high school diploma / GED would only qualify you for. Therefore, further continuing education at college WILL be mandatory for employment in the U.S. in the future over time..... which may mean that we may need to subsidize college education all the way through undergraduate education (yes, bachelor's degrees including B.Arch). In the future, we need to resolve that and because this level of education will be effectively mandatory but we can't quite treat it like we have done for K-12.... we'll need to make undergraduate-level college free (as in paid for by tax dollars) but the student needs to figure their academic / career path.
Some countries already do this. U.S. is surprisingly not quite doing that especially as we are literally going towards a system where you are almost certainly going to need a college education to do the stuff that we can't quite really automate with robots. However, some occupations like engineering is potentially at risk of being able to be replaced with computers and software because the physics and math can all be implemented in software effectively removing the need for engineers as we know it because the engineering science which is basically applied sciences which is basically the application of science and math. Scientists will continue to have a job and engineering is entirely based on proven and well established science in applied fashion so that's where things get more difficult. Engineers will need to embrace a more designer perspective because computers can't quite replace the artistic creativity nature because that requires sense of emotions and feelings. Something you have to be living breathing creatures but it may effect the demand for engineering services as we have been seeing so there may be a period of constriction and redefining.
Architecture / Building Design embracing the art of architecture are probably the area of field where we can't quite replace with computers/robots. The science is already being stuff we use computers and software tools, anyway... for. Builders might be able to be replaced with robotic automation. However, we may still have specialized craftsmen/artisans when you want that 'handmade' touch that there will be people wanting and demanding.
The demand for architects may or may not grow and whether or not we need or can continue to have as many students graduating with B.Arch degrees and such is something that we may have to look at how things unfold in the decades ahead. However, new emerging fields or occupations may bring out new options. This is not unheard of just as some occupations became obsolete because they were replaced with new occupations or similar occupations that uses the computers. Job descriptions changes with the future.
randomised
Jun 19, 21 3:06 pm
Just to add another word salad to the thread..the future will be automated in a decentralised manner through blockchain type of technologies out of reach and unable to control by neither governments nor corporations...power to the people!
Non Sequitur
Jun 19, 21 3:14 pm
Someone should find a way to turn ricky’s long-ass posts into some sort of blockchain. They’d make some much coin overnight to make Bezos will look like a dirty pesant.
Miles Jaffe
Jun 21, 21 12:46 pm
No alternative power structures will be tolerated by the powers that be unless they control them absolutely. Governments and corporations already control the internet. If anything, the future will just be a continuation of the ongoing war for control among various political and corporate factions.
x-jla
Jun 21, 21 12:25 pm
anecdotal, but I’ve noticed that grocery stores now have like 1 register open, and some have even renovated and added more self checkout machines. Seems like covid accelerated this trend.
SneakyPete
Jun 21, 21 12:30 pm
This is most likely because the company is greedy, and they use half-assed automation to replace the workers so they can shove that minimum wage pay (times number of workers not staffed) into the coffers of the C Suite.
randomised
Jun 21, 21 12:38 pm
Same here with the self checkout machines...they’re everywhere now, almost every supermarket has them
BabbleBeautiful
Jun 22, 21 4:02 pm
This isn't new though. I remember experiencing self-checkouts about 10-12 years ago. It started out as a prototype (maybe 2-4 self checkouts) and it grew to replace about half the traditional checkouts. A couple years later they, for whatever reason, started scaling back and some stores got rid of them entirely. Maybe customers weren't ready?
The pandemic brought them back, and I see a about a 1:4 automated to traditional checkout ratio.
Personally, I love Home Depot's self-checkout.
SneakyPete
Jun 22, 21 4:37 pm
I think they may have been removed because of shrinkage.
Everyday Architect
Jun 22, 21 6:49 pm
SneakyPete, is that nominally a joke, or actually funny?
SneakyPete
Jun 22, 21 6:59 pm
I meant shrinkage as in retail theft. If I made a joke it was purely accidental.
Everyday Architect
Jun 22, 21 8:26 pm
lol, I thought you were making a joke out of the nominal dimension vs. actual dimension lawsuit filed against Home Depot years ago where the guy claimed they were deceiving customers because a 4x4 didn't actually measure 4 inches by 4 inches. The suit was dismissed but they changed the way they labeled wood to solve for ignorant customers who don't understand nominal dimensions represent the size before dressing/surfacing and shrinkage.
BabbleBeautiful
Jun 22, 21 4:12 pm
x, to your OP, I kind of think we're already there. Although, I think it's more indicative of the shortcomings of capitalism as it exists today.
(I know I'm being reductive here)
x-jla
Jun 22, 21 5:21 pm
I’m not necessarily anti-automation. I just think we need to replace those jobs…and it goes beyond just giving money out. What if something like a National reforestation effort or some modern version of the city beautiful movement was created to replace such lost jobs. A sale tax on automation produced products could fund it.
x-jla
Jun 22, 21 5:23 pm
You can assume automated products would be cheaper to out compete…and the sale tax would level that a little
SneakyPete
Jun 22, 21 6:26 pm
When the wealthy can afford everything they ever want and automation takes over making everything the human workforce "needs", what compels the wealthy to not simply shut down the processes that keep the unemployed alive? Why keep making shit for the masses when the wealthy have more money than they can ever spend?
Miles Jaffe
Jun 22, 21 9:27 pm
Because they can never have enough money. The more they have the more they are afraid of losing it.
x-jla
Jun 22, 21 10:32 pm
At a certain point it’s only about power
SneakyPete
Jun 23, 21 11:46 am
The human race has some seriously sick limbs that need to be trimmed.
RJ87
Jun 23, 21 2:08 pm
History encourages wealthy people to keep the masses happy. No one wants to end up in a guillotine circa the French Revolution.
randomised
Jun 23, 21 3:03 pm
When automation takes over, the revolution will follow shortly...the masses will have all this time on their hands to educate themselves to finally realise they’ve been had. Nothing more scary for the powers that be than people with nothing to do and nowhere to go...
x-jla
Jun 23, 21 6:20 pm
That’s what Soma is for. (Brave new world)
Miles Jaffe
Jun 23, 21 7:26 pm
@random, which is why the police have been militarized, citizens are under constant monitoring, and a few billionaires have started talking about a basic income guarantee.
The plot seems something like- automate the masses out of their jobs, sell “socialism” (government gives spending money to the masses), the masses spend that money in an ever shrinking number of corporate conglomerates, the rich get richer…the masses become a permanent consumer class…a powerless vector for the upward distribution of wealth…a perfect circle for the oligarchs.
Covid proves that is exactly how it will work. “Woke capitalism” IS the sheep’s clothing. Don’t fall for it. Automation will doom us to this fate.
This thread is a discussion of Automation and how it will unravel society, the architectural world, and political systems.
Automation from a social/political point of view?
Well, that's a relief, I expected this to be another 3D print houses to solve world hunger type discussion.
So, we're not consumer classes?
We are the consumer class now, but we are still somewhat in the game, and we can manipulate the game, which allows us a relative level of freedom. Once removed from that, we become pure dependents, and the tit is the corporate oligarch. Covid has proven this. Amazon shares increased 3x while small businesses shrank and were regulated out of existence. Where did the stimulus checks ultimately end up?
Ignoring the fact that I'm working on 5 distribution warehouse projects in direct competition to Amazon (who happens to be right across the road from my client's site)... What are you suggesting? Obviously, small shops can't reasonably compete with shipping and overhead against giants, so should we subsidise them so they have a fighting chance? Limit the size of giants? Give everyone free puppy cuddles twice weekly to alleviate the stress of their empty consumer lives?
I’m not suggesting anything. I’m predicting the weather
Me: It looks like rain tomorrow. Everyone: are you suggesting we shoot giant maxi pads into the clouds?
Can't use proprietary brands if it's gov project... so better just stick to a vague description and hope it's not a giant soggy mess by the end of the day...
The only automation I see is the mindless repeating of idioctic statements about "socialism", which in the US takes the form of corporate subsidies, tax breaks, quantitative easing, a tax system that rewards investment income and penalizes labor, etc.
It is an Archinect defect that threads by blocked users are visible.
There is an impossibly thin line between socialism and oligarchy.
That’s what most people like you don’t understand.
Let’s keep this thread productive
There's an impossibly thin line between any system of civilization and oligarchy.
classic
Fair enough, but socialism is an especially effective way to feed an oligarchy.
I don’t think we can have a productive conversation about this topic until we open minds up and go beyond 20th century failed solutions
Have you seen Wall-E. The Pixar movie? Even more accurate than Brave New World to explain where we are heading…
Robot love is the future.
How is socialism an effective way to feed an oligarchy? I'm guessing this is some kind of horseshoe theory thing but they're essentially opposite ends of the spectrum.
If the workers own the means of production how are they feeding an oligarchy?
The first two "steps" are something I can live with, any competent gov't would anti-trust the conglomerates to dust, and there would be true choice, one in which I could CHOOSE to be a proper parent for my kid instead of being chained to a job while they grow up with less of my attention that primates are supposed to get.
But yeah, anything to slam woke whatever, right?
Next time try to have a single thought not infected by your stupid vendettas.
But that’s a big part of how corporate America is priming things. Just because you don’t see it, doesn’t mean that it doesn’t exist. The term “woke capitalism” has been used to describe how corporations use culture to maintain control.
Do you support the government breaking up these massive corps?
No. I view the government as the biggest corporation of all.
And we ought to break them up first by reducing their power, not increasing it.
So you want to break up the only group large enough to wield power against the corps, then ... pray? hope? trust? the corps will ... break themselves up?
I don’t claim to know the solution. I’m just pretty sure that giving more power to the government (that is largely beholden to the corporation) is not the solution.
Seems to me like the "beholden to the corporation" part is the problem, not the government itself.
Chicks and eggs
These corporations are not operating in a vacuum. Their power is because of the US government and global network of governments, not in spite of it.
...which is why that needs to change. Disbanding the only group large enough to affect that change is foolish. Change that group and use it to do the right thing. Do you throw away an expensive knife that you cut yourself with because you let it get dull?
Good analogy Pete
I think we can all agree that government should not be giving any special advantages and support to corporations, as they have. If we remove those advantages, we may see a slight leveling of the playing field. Second,
globalization comes with a cost. The corporations who want to do business with foreign nations should be paying that cost, not the tax payer. The US security and military apparatus that clears the way for this type of foreign business dealings (oil, manufacturing,
etc) should not be funded by the average tax payer. Let them pay for it. So, we don’t need to enlarge govt, we need to remove it in the right places, and use those resources elsewhere. This could be a bipartisan thing, but the state is deeply corrupted by corporations, so it’s a chicken egg senario.
etc) should not be funded by the average tax payer. Let them pay for it. So, we don’t need to enlarge govt, we need to remove it in the right places, and use those resources elsewhere. This could be a bipartisan thing, but the state is deeply corrupted by corporations, so it’s a chicken egg senario.
This is really one of the main libertarian arguments. The idea that we want to come after grandmas welfare is a scare tactic. There are many low hanging fruits, like agriculture subsidies, that are the main focus of people talking about shrinking govt. The neocons have taken this spirit and flipped it towards things like ss and welfare. In a perfect world we would eliminate everything, but that’s not something on most libertarians priority list.
Just shorten the work week to match the fall in human labor demand. This should have started happening decades ago but....globalization.
Ok, but my point is eventually that will be zero days. Lol
I think Greek society offers a pretty good example of what might be an outcome. The upper class was involved in politics, art and philosophy. Work was not considered a important piece to make people feel fulfilled in life. A good book is "A world without work" It doesnt take a stance but looks at the studies where universal income was implemented and alcoholism shot up but countered with examples such as the one above. It also mentions how socialism might actually have to be the only answer but how do you keep a meritocracy in that scenario and does class mobility completely stop? All good questions but according to Tduds you need to stop thinking. It might lead you into discovering things against the narrative for the sheep.
Don't put words in my mouth to make yourself appear smart. If you have more than three brain cells you should be able to make your point just fine using things people actually said.
Reverting to a personal attack. Another debate won!
You cited something I didn't say. Pointing out that you did that is not a personal attack.
This idea that you need proof or a complete dissertation to discuss ideas is problematic, especially for design professionals.
Probably why some of us would have won the bet on whether the Wuhan novel coronavirus came from the Wuhan novel coronavirus lab (see Jon Stuart).
archi-dude, absolutely. Work is much more than just bread. Humans, especially men, need work to fulfill their sense of purpose. Without that, we will degenerate.
Imagine the beautiful things we could create if, untethered from the need to get money to survive, we had true freedom to choose the labors that give us that sense of purpose.
I don't need "proof" or "a dissertation", I suppose I just have a higher bar for what I consider a fruitful discussion. Happy to continue in honest discussion if anyone wants to expand on my questions below.
tduds, get rich, lulz.
Yes Tduds, that’s true. But it’s tricky to do enable that in a way that also doesn’t also lead to tyrannical restrictions on what you can create
.
tyrannical restrictions on what you can create? the National Endowment for the Arts is holding on Line 2 to speak with you...
Yeah, you probably wouldn’t have a problem apologizjng in mandarin like John Cena…but that’s where this goes. Creative liberty is absolutely connected to economic liberty.
So, you can have something like a UBI, and some cottage industries would emerge possibly among those who’ve been displaced by automation I suppose. But only so many people would be capable of doing this. Many would probably degenerate.
[nevermind]
Lotta hypotheses presented as axioms & conclusions in this thread.
Nothing wrong with any of that. It’s called thinking
How many “conspiracy theories” have to be proven true to jerk your neck from the mainstream narrative?
The thing about theories is that the veracity of any one theory has little bearing on the veracity of theories in general. That's not how thinking works at all.
My point is you're presenting things as self-evident that very much are not, and then extrapolating some theories from those. My challenge is that you need to do a bit more work to convincingly demonstrate the existence of your initial conditions before you propose actions to address them.
As usual I'm not so much countering your arguments as I am suggesting they're not yet coherent enough to be worth considering.
Ah like critical race theory.
Like you know what CRT is.
"Lotta hypotheses presented as axioms & conclusions in this thread" gets confronted by their own hypotheses getting presented as law not theory. Reverts to personal attacks. Lost the debate.
What?
The plot seems something like-
When you say "plot" it suggests intent with direction. What are you basing this on? It seems to me like there are a number of possible "motivations", including on one extreme your suggestion of a plot and also on the other extreme the simple inertia of millions of individually motivated decisions aggregating towards noticeable trends. And also a lot of middle ground between. This statement needs more history in order to demonstrate where along the spectrum the current condition lies.
automate the masses out of their jobs,
Permanent job loss due to automation has been a boogeyman stalking progress since the invention of the printing press. Data rarely supports it in the long term. There are periods of volatility, and I'd argue were very much in the middle of one right now, but eventually technologically-induced losses are offset by technologically-created industries. There is little, if any, evidence to suggest a "plot" to destroy jobs in order to achieve some end. What's far more likely is that this is a period of high volatility brought on by a massive shift in the paradigms of economics and the nature of work as a result of an explosion of technological progress over the past ~30 years. Not to say it's nothing to worry about, but it's a different thing to worry about which will require different solutions to assuage.
sell “socialism” (government gives spending money to the masses),
That's not what socialism is. There are many definitions of socialism, and many instantiations of socialist ideas within organizations. None of them (other than those given in bad faith to more easily discredit movements that threaten the current hegemony) are as simply defined as this.
the masses spend that money in an ever shrinking number of corporate conglomerates, the rich get richer…the masses become a permanent consumer class…a powerless vector for the upward distribution of wealth…a perfect circle for the oligarchs.
This is happening already under our system of under-regulated capitalism. Why would anyone put in all the effort to forcefully change the nature of global government to achieve essentially the same result as doing nothing?
Covid proves that is exactly how it will work.
How?
“Woke capitalism” IS the sheep’s clothing. Don’t fall for it.
Woke capitalism is still capitalism, and while I agree woke capitalism (as you call it) is a problem, I'd say you're wrongly fixating on the "woke" part and conveniently ignoring the "capitalism" part. Woke Capitalism, as I see it, is a cynical repackaging of cultural movements to sell product without addressing any of the aims of the movements. It co-opts moral language to provide consumption as a solution. It's purely capitalistic in nature.
Automation will doom us to this fate.
How?
This thread is a discussion of Automation
Is it? It seems more like a weak attempt to thread multiple semi-related bits of complex & chaotic global systems into a simple narrative that conveniently aligns with just about every other point you've ever made in these forums. Maybe we can get to an actual discussion of automation but we're not there yet.
and how it will unravel society, the architectural world, and political systems.
"and how it will" assumes it will. We can't discuss how without demonstrating if. I'd say you're far from convincing anyone of the "what", so leave the "how" for a while and make your case.
Plot = “the main events of a play, novel, movie, or similar work, devised and presented by the writer as an interrelated sequence.“.
The industrial rev is not same as robotics and AI
Socialism and oligarchy goes hand in hand. The Chinese style cultural revolution happening in this country is maybe intentional, and 99.999% guaranteed to not benefit the masses, otherwise it wouldn’t be echoed by the political and corporate elite.
Woke capitalism is capitalism that benefits from, or kneels to the strong arm of government. See Facebook, Twitter, etc.
Taking away many jobs and not replacing them.
That’s like your opinion man.
Answered in order^ From phone
You can't stop technology. When it can do a job better, faster, and cheaper than a human, it will replace them. I would suspect little to no examples could be found in history where this was not true.
To Tdud's point, the data doesn't really support permanent job reduction, but at the same time, the threat that the rapid technological advancements could do this seems real to me. Technology is inevitable , if it generates new opportunities people will fill them, if it does not... we'll have to find a new way to live in a world that is fundamentally different than now. Could that way of living be socialism? No... I think it's laughable to compare a majority automated society with one that is not. Benevolent corporate oligarchy? maybe? I still think that the fundamental principles of any type or philosophy of government that has ever been used would fail to describe what would have to happen in this circumstance.
Apocryphal stories have some neat applicability... https://www.etymonline.com/word/sabotage
Not better, not faster: just cheaper, because that is the only thing that matters. Robots don't get sick, don't take days off, don't get health insurance and retirement benefits, can be replaced at will (ok, this one applies to pretty much all labor as well), etc.
Every tech is a double-edged sword, and both edges are used for profit first (and often last and only). Triple-edged when you count displaced labor.
The internet went from a magical information superhighway to a virtually gridlocked cesspool of advertising, datamining, and propaganda where ecommerce did to small business what interstate highways did to small towns.
What I see would be a shift. While during the period of transitions, there will be displacement but that is often addressed by various programs for retraining which is and has been used to address the issue. Yes, some will be ultimately retired and kind of kicked to the curb which is how our society deals with those who can't 'adapt' and/or simply won't. There will always be new supply of people that will get the training (unless we kill ourselves off and then no one would have to worry about the future anymore... anyway).
time to reread Dune!
And get ready for the upcoming remake movie. And rewatch the amazing old one.
Also... the idea that technology will obviate the role of an entire social class and lead them to subordination by an oligarchic group of elite machine-owners is not a new idea. It arose in Europe in the nineteenth century during the first industrial age.
The most famous theoretician of this situation was Karl Marx, the exiled German (prussian rhineland) son of an ex-jewish lawyer. You should read his book Das Kaptial, it largely describes the problem you are worried about. He also wrote some hyperbolic theories of what will result from this situation which might appeal to your imagination even if they didn't accurately predict the future (right?).
One can accurately define a problem, suggest a narrow simplistic causation, and then go on to propose a solution that is far more catastrophic than the problem itself, like Marx did.
yes i actually think that's the most common outcome - every era's major problems were the solution to the previous ones.
(drunken thoughts) if there was a bot that automated posting on archinect would we all stop posting and reading posts?
i wouldn't, maybe. i like to think i'd spend my valuable time trolling the bots and trying to distinguish real posters from automated ones. there would possibly be an industry of antiautomated creators which most of us would participate in.
maybe rich people would pay us to do it and then it would be like art which changed once machines made replication simple to instead be a matter of cultural criticism and fantasy. at the high end that's what architecture already is about.
for ordinary working class people life is already tough and sometimes permanently unfair, which viewed over any long period of time is also a normal situation.
postwar america was the beneficiary of international economic political power which every major power stumbles into eventually and later stumbles out of. but these golden ages have nothing to do with internal economic systems or virtuous societies - they're just the temporary effect of technological upgrade and institutional development fed by an over accumulation of capital due to victory in war or a massive expansion of power relative to other countries. it's the power that matters.
somewhere above ancient greece was mentioned as an example of a state where the elite class was liberated from daily work. what happened to ancient greece and why didn't this system catch on? (note there was no such country as "ancient greece" and the various greek states never really established a uniform society or economic system. contrary to popular belief not all of them were even democratic!)
The rich do whatever the fuck they want. Which is basically try to increase their wealth. Which is not work in any sense.
i think once they achieve wealth they look to develop power. that's the real danger for societies
Money and power are one and the same, and always have been.
Not really. Money is a form of power but power isn't always in the form of money. You can take the analogy of all squares are quadrilaterals but not all quadrilaterals are squares. That analogy would apply in the abstract of the point. Money may be a power but not all power is money. There was a time before money and yet there was power. Money is the fiat currency of properties, assets, and resources tradeable and through trade is the art to have the leverage in negotiation. It's all the art of negotiation (avoiding using the phrase that happens to be a title of a book associated with a douchebag). That's where power is... the leverage to compel another to your will and desire. Inferring on the meaning of power in this context.
This is because we as a country (United States and some other countries) are moving away from being a Secondary Sector based economy to a Tertiary & Quaternary. Okay, most countries are composed of primary, secondary, tertiary, quaternary, and quinary but it's the ranking order of how our industries sectors are ordered in the importance of our economy. The Secondary sector is shrinking in the U.S. and shifting to tertiary and quaternary sectors which are growing. Our country will still have some strength in what we call the Primary sector even if it doesn't rank #1 in the economy and these are classification of industry sectors not necessary an indication of rank order.
Architects as a profession falls into tertiary sector. I work in both tertiary sector and quaternary sectors. The IT/tech industry is one of the most fastest and growing part of the quaternary sector. Tertiary and Quaternary sectors will make up a strong part of new emerging occupation types. These two sectors will probably be the drivers of jobs in the primary sector, influence decisions going on in and by the quinary sector and secondary industry is being either outsourced or being automated. Parts of the Tertiary sector might be replaced with automation especially the sectors involving minimum wage jobs that typically a high school diploma / GED would only qualify you for. Therefore, further continuing education at college WILL be mandatory for employment in the U.S. in the future over time..... which may mean that we may need to subsidize college education all the way through undergraduate education (yes, bachelor's degrees including B.Arch). In the future, we need to resolve that and because this level of education will be effectively mandatory but we can't quite treat it like we have done for K-12.... we'll need to make undergraduate-level college free (as in paid for by tax dollars) but the student needs to figure their academic / career path.
Some countries already do this. U.S. is surprisingly not quite doing that especially as we are literally going towards a system where you are almost certainly going to need a college education to do the stuff that we can't quite really automate with robots. However, some occupations like engineering is potentially at risk of being able to be replaced with computers and software because the physics and math can all be implemented in software effectively removing the need for engineers as we know it because the engineering science which is basically applied sciences which is basically the application of science and math. Scientists will continue to have a job and engineering is entirely based on proven and well established science in applied fashion so that's where things get more difficult. Engineers will need to embrace a more designer perspective because computers can't quite replace the artistic creativity nature because that requires sense of emotions and feelings. Something you have to be living breathing creatures but it may effect the demand for engineering services as we have been seeing so there may be a period of constriction and redefining.
Architecture / Building Design embracing the art of architecture are probably the area of field where we can't quite replace with computers/robots. The science is already being stuff we use computers and software tools, anyway... for. Builders might be able to be replaced with robotic automation. However, we may still have specialized craftsmen/artisans when you want that 'handmade' touch that there will be people wanting and demanding.
The demand for architects may or may not grow and whether or not we need or can continue to have as many students graduating with B.Arch degrees and such is something that we may have to look at how things unfold in the decades ahead. However, new emerging fields or occupations may bring out new options. This is not unheard of just as some occupations became obsolete because they were replaced with new occupations or similar occupations that uses the computers. Job descriptions changes with the future.
Just to add another word salad to the thread..the future will be automated in a decentralised manner through blockchain type of technologies out of reach and unable to control by neither governments nor corporations...power to the people!
Someone should find a way to turn ricky’s long-ass posts into some sort of blockchain. They’d make some much coin overnight to make Bezos will look like a dirty pesant.
No alternative power structures will be tolerated by the powers that be unless they control them absolutely. Governments and corporations already control the internet. If anything, the future will just be a continuation of the ongoing war for control among various political and corporate factions.
anecdotal, but I’ve noticed that grocery stores now have like 1 register open, and some have even renovated and added more self checkout machines. Seems like covid accelerated this trend.
This is most likely because the company is greedy, and they use half-assed automation to replace the workers so they can shove that minimum wage pay (times number of workers not staffed) into the coffers of the C Suite.
Same here with the self checkout machines...they’re everywhere now, almost every supermarket has them
This isn't new though. I remember experiencing self-checkouts about 10-12 years ago. It started out as a prototype (maybe 2-4 self checkouts) and it grew to replace about half the traditional checkouts. A couple years later they, for whatever reason, started scaling back and some stores got rid of them entirely. Maybe customers weren't ready?
The pandemic brought them back, and I see a about a 1:4 automated to traditional checkout ratio.
Personally, I love Home Depot's self-checkout.
I think they may have been removed because of shrinkage.
SneakyPete, is that nominally a joke, or actually funny?
I meant shrinkage as in retail theft. If I made a joke it was purely accidental.
lol, I thought you were making a joke out of the nominal dimension vs. actual dimension lawsuit filed against Home Depot years ago where the guy claimed they were deceiving customers because a 4x4 didn't actually measure 4 inches by 4 inches. The suit was dismissed but they changed the way they labeled wood to solve for ignorant customers who don't understand nominal dimensions represent the size before dressing/surfacing and shrinkage.
x, to your OP, I kind of think we're already there. Although, I think it's more indicative of the shortcomings of capitalism as it exists today.
(I know I'm being reductive here)
I’m not necessarily anti-automation. I just think we need to replace those jobs…and it goes beyond just giving money out. What if something like a National reforestation effort or some modern version of the city beautiful movement was created to replace such lost jobs. A sale tax on automation produced products could fund it.
You can assume automated products would be cheaper to out compete…and the sale tax would level that a little
When the wealthy can afford everything they ever want and automation takes over making everything the human workforce "needs", what compels the wealthy to not simply shut down the processes that keep the unemployed alive? Why keep making shit for the masses when the wealthy have more money than they can ever spend?
Because they can never have enough money. The more they have the more they are afraid of losing it.
At a certain point it’s only about power
The human race has some seriously sick limbs that need to be trimmed.
History encourages wealthy people to keep the masses happy. No one wants to end up in a guillotine circa the French Revolution.
When automation takes over, the revolution will follow shortly...the masses will have all this time on their hands to educate themselves to finally realise they’ve been had. Nothing more scary for the powers that be than people with nothing to do and nowhere to go...
That’s what Soma is for. (Brave new world)
@random, which is why the police have been militarized, citizens are under constant monitoring, and a few billionaires have started talking about a basic income guarantee.
Dominos automated pizza delivery.
Stankest robot on the block
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=peaKnkNX4vc
Amazon scout bot
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=HX6M4QunVmA
Wow. Short doc on robotics in manufacturing