I just saw this on twitter, and resonated with all the conversations we are having right now with our contractors about not only price but availability of materials like lumber or tile. What's your experience? We have been trying to tell our clients to wait 6 months to see what happens next, but it's all just a guess.
proto
Apr 28, 21 3:32 pm
just had two GC's price a 650sf dormer addition w/ a bathroom
should have been in the $150k range
GC#1: $265k
GC#2: $279k
the client hasn't seen those numbers yet, but they are going to shit themselves first & then they are going to not do the proposed work & wonder why we led them down this path...
JLC-1
Apr 28, 21 3:34 pm
it's insane, we did fixed fee for this repeated client, and the house is already 50% above initial estimates. should we stop building for a while?
proto
Apr 28, 21 3:43 pm
Material pricing will come down a little as production streams get ramped back up. But i think demand for projects is only going to keep growing because people/businesses have been sitting on their hands during the shutdown and want to get rolling again
the GCs we work with seem to be booked out months & some into next year
tduds
Apr 28, 21 3:47 pm
I haven't seen much impact on my professional projects, but we pushed back our plan to rebuild a deck + pergola on our house until next year. Prices are absurd right now.
randomised
Apr 28, 21 3:57 pm
I'm glad materials are so expensive, they should be...makes people think twice (hopefully) about destroying the planet even further. Reuse and recycle is the way to go! https://madaster.com
JLC-1
Apr 28, 21 4:00 pm
I'm glad you live in heaven, here on earth that stuff isn't even available.
tduds
Apr 28, 21 4:02 pm
If only the price of materials correlated with their environmental impact you might have a point.
randomised
Apr 28, 21 4:17 pm
they soon will be tduds,
it's the only way...the polluter will pay
bowling_ball
Apr 28, 21 4:35 pm
yeah, that huge polluter known as lumber. Right. GTFOH.
tduds
Apr 28, 21 4:41 pm
Pick a tense, rando.
randomised
Apr 29, 21 5:12 am
We can and should already reuse and recycle, so past, present and future tense...just look at what is thrown in dumpsters at building sites, it is just vulgar. Glad people will have to be more conscious about how and what they want to build. Even lumber is a huge polluter when it needs to be cut down, transported, transformed and installed on site unnecessarily. The most sustainable project is the one not built at all. Building to generate a profit instead of fulfilling a real and urgent need is what got us in this mess.
tduds
Apr 29, 21 11:01 am
I think you missed what I
was getting at.
JLC-1
Apr 29, 21 11:01 am
sure, nothing to do with bankers and colonialists exploiting the southern hemisphere for 500 years, it's all the architects' and builders' fault.
x-jla
Apr 29, 21 11:29 am
Random, I’ve been trying to push gravel patios as an alternative to cut stone or concrete for aesthetics and environmental reasons. It’s been an easier sell lately than ever before. 1.50 psf vs 15$ psf. Sure!
I didn't miss it tduds, I might have just added some wishful thinking to the mix.
randomised
Apr 29, 21 7:06 pm
"sure, nothing to do with bankers and colonialists exploiting the southern hemisphere for 500 years, it's all the architects' and builders' fault."
Be the change you want to see in the world
Wood Guy
Apr 28, 21 4:00 pm
I have a new 12' x 24' screened porch over a basement, an addition to an existing house with a few related items. I figured $80-100K. Nope: $180K. It's insane.
gibbost
Apr 28, 21 4:09 pm
Certainly, material costs are way high right now. But I also think that contractors and subs are using that to hide behind some unsavory price-gouging. Here in the midwest, we never really saw much slowdown in construction activity last year. Everyone is busy. As such, most contractors have projects logged for 12-18 months out. If you're lucky enough to get a bid, it will be astronomically high because they don't actually need the work--and if they are awarded the project, it's just gravy on top.
archi_dude
Apr 28, 21 4:26 pm
That's actually not what's happening at all. There is an extreme shortage of labor due to the massive layoffs 10 years ago and a wave of retirement. Couple that with the extended unemployment that gives workers more money than when they were working. A lot of the skilled trades that are in high demand are flaiming COVID risks, taking the unemployment than hiring themselves out as a cash hourly skilled worker under the table. So theres that, next is the extreme material shortages. It's not a smokescreen. Prices are rising so high so fast that theft is a massive issue on sites right now because subs who did not lock in prices with vendors earlier are now screwed and possibly could default on work becuase they cant cover all their jobs and did not anticipate a random 30- 40 even 100% increase in basic materials in less than a year.
x-jla
Apr 29, 21 7:28 pm
It’s all of the above. Materials, labor shortages, and increasing prices because of high demand/low desperation.
thisisnotmyname
Apr 28, 21 4:12 pm
Is it at the point that metal studs would be a reasonable alternative to wood framing? At the lumberyard by us, the wood and metal studs are just about the same price.
gibbost
Apr 28, 21 4:17 pm
For projects that will allow it, I've started showing both partition types (wood vs. steel) and letting the contractor verify which will be cheaper. It's been my experience lately that metal studs are cheaper, but harder to get a hold of.
archi_dude
Apr 28, 21 4:20 pm
10 week lead time currently on metal studs. So essentially right up there with AAON units.....
joseffischer
Apr 29, 21 1:59 pm
We've been doing this for almost a year now, so far they've all gone metal stud and the end product on projects wrapping up has vastly improved... walls are straight again... I've been building up a presentation to push to stay metal stud when/if things "go back to normal" on quality alone
gibbost
Apr 28, 21 4:14 pm
I am consistently seeing projects come-in 20-30% higher than proformas built just a year ago. It's hard to watch an Owner make all the right steps, just to see a project come in much higher than the anticipated loan and investment they were prepared to make.
Everyday Architect
Apr 28, 21 4:20 pm
I've been dragging my feet getting quotes for material to build the deck I was posting about a while back. Dreading the sticker shock.
We are looking at replacing our windows and one contractor said they are scheduling 7 months out right now. That was just when I called to see about hours for their showroom. We haven't even discussed getting a quote yet.
Donna Sink
Apr 29, 21 1:16 pm
On twitter my friend Lora posted that her residential windows are on a 16 week lead time and 25% higher price than expected.
Everyday Architect
Apr 30, 21 1:19 pm
When we went into the showroom and talked to them, they also said that usually window manufacturers raise their prices at the beginning of the year and they stay there until the next year. This year they've got manufacturers telling them they are raising prices in June and to be prepared for it.
bowling_ball
Apr 28, 21 4:40 pm
Got quotes for a big reno at my house, this was last June. Budgeted $75k. Quotes came in $120k to $190k. It's only gotten worse.
Locally, if you can find any, 3/8" OSB is advertised for $55/sheet. Prior to the pandemic it was anywhere from $8 to $11. I've seen as high as $70/sheet. FOR OSB.
joseffischer
Apr 29, 21 2:01 pm
was at the Homedepot the other day, they hadn't even bothered removing the stickers. Plywood had like 8 stickers on top of eachother with $5-10 increases each time
Everyday Architect
Apr 30, 21 1:34 pm
Time to peel off some stickers and get the original price.
Non Sequitur
Apr 28, 21 4:48 pm
I just picked up 2 treated 2x8 (12' long) for 30 loonies each just this past weekend.
Josh Mings
Apr 28, 21 5:16 pm
Lumber prices are nuts and as an architect that mainly does multi-family housing.....causing me nightmares.
Chad Miller
Apr 28, 21 5:36 pm
Just finished up a core and shell, wood framed retail building. 2,800 sf with mostly metal panel and a bit of face brick. $600,000
Suppliers are saying that lumber prices should be returning to normal prices in the next 4 months or so.
Bench
Apr 29, 21 7:41 am
Curious how they're seeing that? (Not a challenge, just seems oddly specific, and much quicker than I expected ...)
bowling_ball
Apr 29, 21 2:30 pm
Your suppliers are dreaming. Prices will never fully come back down to 2019 levels, but they'll get sort of close by 2024 I'm fairly confident. There's going to be a two year backlog of construction for SFH, starting this summer. Not a chance.
Chad Miller
Apr 29, 21 4:14 pm
I didn't say 2019 prices. In my area we started seeing price increases 6 months ago. The really high prices started two months ago for us. Prices are supposed to return to 2020 numbers for us around August or so.
I was told the reason for the increase in cost in my area was due to three issues.
1. A mill in Canada closed.
2. COVID decreased output.
3. Housing construction never slowed down during COVID
whistler
Apr 28, 21 6:06 pm
All starts with the price of sheet of Plywood:
2019 $34.00
2021 $110.00
WTF!
gibbost
Apr 28, 21 6:24 pm
This is in no way trying to high jack this thread. I assume plywood to be a high-demand item these days. What is not going to construction is being used to board-up and fortify.
Bench
Apr 29, 21 4:38 pm
"This is in no way trying to high jack this thread."
lol k bud
Peter Normand
Apr 29, 21 5:27 pm
Board up for civil unrest is small compared to hurricane board up when the season starts in August we will probably see a spike in lumber cost again if we have a busy storm season.
Everyday Architect
Apr 28, 21 6:34 pm
I can't claim this as my own, and I'm not sure who said it first as I've been seeing it from multiple people on the socials (otherwise I'd credit them), but ...
The driver was going to go through insurance, but sold the plywood and bought a new car instead.
Jaetten
Apr 29, 21 6:51 am
Was there a discount for the damaged corner to the ply on the right?
archi_dude
Apr 28, 21 8:22 pm
When we tear down our plywood temp barrier where the curtain wall is going in the next few weeks, I shall retire...401ks they said.
zonker
Apr 28, 21 9:02 pm
Ta get a little extra cash, think I'll head over to one of my job sites, collect scraps to sell to the plywood mill
w. architect
Apr 29, 21 10:44 am
I find a correlation between lumber costs and ammo! The hope for both is that it will come down in future, shall we all hold hands and sing now?
Non Sequitur
Apr 29, 21 10:48 am
Bullets should cost 50k per round for civilian use.
x-jla
Apr 29, 21 11:25 am
Chris rock had a funny bit about that
Non Sequitur
Apr 29, 21 11:41 am
^yes, but he said 5k per. I adjusted.
Chad Miller
Apr 29, 21 11:56 am
Ah the old bullet debate. To horde or not to horde. :s
archi_dude
Apr 30, 21 12:54 pm
Or you could just have a background check.
x-jla
Apr 29, 21 11:21 am
material costs are up a lot. I am paying 20% more for natural stone products, plants, lumber, and even labor. The price isn’t the problem though, waiting for back orders is the problem. Supply and demand. I’ve been busier this year than ever before. Home prices are up, and people are in good position with their equity, traveling less, going out less, so they feel comfortable building that new pool, spending 150k on a totally new landscape, etc.
x-jla
Apr 29, 21 11:23 am
I’ve had projects held up for a month waiting for pavers, tile, etc to get back in stock. I miss the days where only tp was scarce.
curtkram
Apr 29, 21 8:25 pm
people are spending the equity in their houses? like they did in 2008? that's not good.
x-jla
Apr 30, 21 12:35 pm
I’m not sure if they are borrowing against it as much as in 2008, but say you bought a house for 500k that is not worth 800k...if you remodel and invest 100k you are going to be able to recoup that investment when you sell. So they feel comfortable investing in their homes because they are in positive equity.
x-jla
Apr 30, 21 12:39 pm
I’ve also had clients express that it’s not worth moving and that they just want to fix their home and keep it long term. I think the flipper mentality may be going down. You sell and then what. Everything is so overpriced and inventory is so low that it’s not really worth it. So, kind of a good trend i think.
I just saw this on twitter, and resonated with all the conversations we are having right now with our contractors about not only price but availability of materials like lumber or tile. What's your experience? We have been trying to tell our clients to wait 6 months to see what happens next, but it's all just a guess.
just had two GC's price a 650sf dormer addition w/ a bathroom
should have been in the $150k range
GC#1: $265k
GC#2: $279k
the client hasn't seen those numbers yet, but they are going to shit themselves first & then they are going to not do the proposed work & wonder why we led them down this path...
it's insane, we did fixed fee for this repeated client, and the house is already 50% above initial estimates. should we stop building for a while?
Material pricing will come down a little as production streams get ramped back up. But i think demand for projects is only going to keep growing because people/businesses have been sitting on their hands during the shutdown and want to get rolling again
the GCs we work with seem to be booked out months & some into next year
I haven't seen much impact on my professional projects, but we pushed back our plan to rebuild a deck + pergola on our house until next year. Prices are absurd right now.
I'm glad materials are so expensive, they should be...makes people think twice (hopefully) about destroying the planet even further. Reuse and recycle is the way to go! https://madaster.com
I'm glad you live in heaven, here on earth that stuff isn't even available.
If only the price of materials correlated with their environmental impact you might have a point.
they soon will be tduds,
it's the only way...the polluter will pay
yeah, that huge polluter known as lumber. Right. GTFOH.
Pick a tense, rando.
We can and should already reuse and recycle, so past, present and future tense...just look at what is thrown in dumpsters at building sites, it is just vulgar. Glad people will have to be more conscious about how and what they want to build. Even lumber is a huge polluter when it needs to be cut down, transported, transformed and installed on site unnecessarily. The most sustainable project is the one not built at all. Building to generate a profit instead of fulfilling a real and urgent need is what got us in this mess.
I think you missed what I was getting at.
sure, nothing to do with bankers and colonialists exploiting the southern hemisphere for 500 years, it's all the architects' and builders' fault.
Random, I’ve been trying to push gravel patios as an alternative to cut stone or concrete for aesthetics and environmental reasons. It’s been an easier sell lately than ever before. 1.50 psf vs 15$ psf. Sure!
let's recycle some pets https://www.vox.com/the-highlight/22375369/comic-pets-climate-change-environment
I didn't miss it tduds, I might have just added some wishful thinking to the mix.
"sure, nothing to do with bankers and colonialists exploiting the southern hemisphere for 500 years, it's all the architects' and builders' fault."
Be the change you want to see in the world
I have a new 12' x 24' screened porch over a basement, an addition to an existing house with a few related items. I figured $80-100K. Nope: $180K. It's insane.
Certainly, material costs are way high right now. But I also think that contractors and subs are using that to hide behind some unsavory price-gouging. Here in the midwest, we never really saw much slowdown in construction activity last year. Everyone is busy. As such, most contractors have projects logged for 12-18 months out. If you're lucky enough to get a bid, it will be astronomically high because they don't actually need the work--and if they are awarded the project, it's just gravy on top.
That's actually not what's happening at all. There is an extreme shortage of labor due to the massive layoffs 10 years ago and a wave of retirement. Couple that with the extended unemployment that gives workers more money than when they were working. A lot of the skilled trades that are in high demand are flaiming COVID risks, taking the unemployment than hiring themselves out as a cash hourly skilled worker under the table. So theres that, next is the extreme material shortages. It's not a smokescreen. Prices are rising so high so fast that theft is a massive issue on sites right now because subs who did not lock in prices with vendors earlier are now screwed and possibly could default on work becuase they cant cover all their jobs and did not anticipate a random 30- 40 even 100% increase in basic materials in less than a year.
It’s all of the above. Materials, labor shortages, and increasing prices because of high demand/low desperation.
Is it at the point that metal studs would be a reasonable alternative to wood framing? At the lumberyard by us, the wood and metal studs are just about the same price.
For projects that will allow it, I've started showing both partition types (wood vs. steel) and letting the contractor verify which will be cheaper. It's been my experience lately that metal studs are cheaper, but harder to get a hold of.
10 week lead time currently on metal studs. So essentially right up there with AAON units.....
We've been doing this for almost a year now, so far they've all gone metal stud and the end product on projects wrapping up has vastly improved... walls are straight again... I've been building up a presentation to push to stay metal stud when/if things "go back to normal" on quality alone
I am consistently seeing projects come-in 20-30% higher than proformas built just a year ago. It's hard to watch an Owner make all the right steps, just to see a project come in much higher than the anticipated loan and investment they were prepared to make.
I've been dragging my feet getting quotes for material to build the deck I was posting about a while back. Dreading the sticker shock.
We are looking at replacing our windows and one contractor said they are scheduling 7 months out right now. That was just when I called to see about hours for their showroom. We haven't even discussed getting a quote yet.
On twitter my friend Lora posted that her residential windows are on a 16 week lead time and 25% higher price than expected.
When we went into the showroom and talked to them, they also said that usually window manufacturers raise their prices at the beginning of the year and they stay there until the next year. This year they've got manufacturers telling them they are raising prices in June and to be prepared for it.
Got quotes for a big reno at my house, this was last June. Budgeted $75k. Quotes came in $120k to $190k. It's only gotten worse.
Locally, if you can find any, 3/8" OSB is advertised for $55/sheet. Prior to the pandemic it was anywhere from $8 to $11. I've seen as high as $70/sheet. FOR OSB.
was at the Homedepot the other day, they hadn't even bothered removing the stickers. Plywood had like 8 stickers on top of eachother with $5-10 increases each time
Time to peel off some stickers and get the original price.
I just picked up 2 treated 2x8 (12' long) for 30 loonies each just this past weekend.
Lumber prices are nuts and as an architect that mainly does multi-family housing.....causing me nightmares.
Just finished up a core and shell, wood framed retail building. 2,800 sf with mostly metal panel and a bit of face brick. $600,000
Suppliers are saying that lumber prices should be returning to normal prices in the next 4 months or so.
Curious how they're seeing that? (Not a challenge, just seems oddly specific, and much quicker than I expected ...)
Your suppliers are dreaming. Prices will never fully come back down to 2019 levels, but they'll get sort of close by 2024 I'm fairly confident. There's going to be a two year backlog of construction for SFH, starting this summer. Not a chance.
I didn't say 2019 prices. In my area we started seeing price increases 6 months ago. The really high prices started two months ago for us. Prices are supposed to return to 2020 numbers for us around August or so.
I was told the reason for the increase in cost in my area was due to three issues.
1. A mill in Canada closed.
2. COVID decreased output.
3. Housing construction never slowed down during COVID
All starts with the price of sheet of Plywood:
2019 $34.00
2021 $110.00
WTF!
This is in no way trying to high jack this thread. I assume plywood to be a high-demand item these days. What is not going to construction is being used to board-up and fortify.
"This is in no way trying to high jack this thread."
lol k bud
Board up for civil unrest is small compared to hurricane board up when the season starts in August we will probably see a spike in lumber cost again if we have a busy storm season.
I can't claim this as my own, and I'm not sure who said it first as I've been seeing it from multiple people on the socials (otherwise I'd credit them), but ...
The driver was going to go through insurance, but sold the plywood and bought a new car instead.
Was there a discount for the damaged corner to the ply on the right?
When we tear down our plywood temp barrier where the curtain wall is going in the next few weeks, I shall retire...401ks they said.
Ta get a little extra cash, think I'll head over to one of my job sites, collect scraps to sell to the plywood mill
I find a correlation between lumber costs and ammo! The hope for both is that it will come down in future, shall we all hold hands and sing now?
Bullets should cost 50k per round for civilian use.
Chris rock had a funny bit about that
^yes, but he said 5k per. I adjusted.
Ah the old bullet debate. To horde or not to horde. :s
Or you could just have a background check.
material costs are up a lot. I am paying 20% more for natural stone products, plants, lumber, and even labor. The price isn’t the problem though, waiting for back orders is the problem. Supply and demand. I’ve been busier this year than ever before. Home prices are up, and people are in good position with their equity, traveling less, going out less, so they feel comfortable building that new pool, spending 150k on a totally new landscape, etc.
I’ve had projects held up for a month waiting for pavers, tile, etc to get back in stock. I miss the days where only tp was scarce.
people are spending the equity in their houses? like they did in 2008? that's not good.
I’m not sure if they are borrowing against it as much as in 2008, but say you bought a house for 500k that is not worth 800k...if you remodel and invest 100k you are going to be able to recoup that investment when you sell. So they feel comfortable investing in their homes because they are in positive equity.
I’ve also had clients express that it’s not worth moving and that they just want to fix their home and keep it long term. I think the flipper mentality may be going down. You sell and then what. Everything is so overpriced and inventory is so low that it’s not really worth it. So, kind of a good trend i think.
Tp!..the good old times!
I'm sure you've all seen this one:
I can smell that picture.
Why do I want to smack that guy with a 2x?
He's obviously got wood.
@b3ta
FRT version? thats even more bux