It is evident that architecture and design, like most industries, is in a state of flux. From how offices are conceptualized to the way our cities are built, the global COVID-19 health crisis and the current social justice movement will bring about immense change in New York City. With over 40 years of zoning experience, I foresee the following changes in the coming years: outer borough multi-use development; increased height allowances in low- and mid-scale development; preserving historic buildings instead of entire neighborhoods to make way for more development; and the ULURP process becoming increasingly difficult.
With a growing trend toward more residential development outside of central business districts (CBDs) like Manhattan, I expect this to only increase as more people work remotely. Now, however, I foresee a new emphasis on mixed-use development that is less dependent on transit or proximity to Manhattan. This will lead to the creation of "micro-hubs,” where work, living, and commerce converge. Prior to COVID, many areas of the city were limited to mostly low density, single- and two-family housing, generally far from workplaces. We should start to see new zoning that will encourage other housing types further from the city center, mixing residential with commercial. Current zoning generally prohibits these types of developments that integrate residential, retail and office space. I think this will break down as people look to minimize their commute times on public transportation. Incentives should be created to encourage workspaces within apartments and co-working spaces within multiple dwellings. Similarly, housing’s proximity to open spaces, shorelines and nature, which are usually located outside of CBDs, will become more important. This may even begin to override current trends that encourage new housing in inner cities and industrial areas.
I anticipate that low- and mid-scale development may actually see modest increases in allowable height, as a result of buyers’ changing tastes and new building technologies. Decades ago, buildings were simpler, and gracious ceiling heights, natural light, and modern technologies seemed less important. New technologies, like flood resiliency, renewable energy technologies and state-of-the-art HVAC systems, will require more height and space. Zoning must and will evolve accordingly.
My sense is that after a couple of decades of saving entire historic neighborhoods, the momentum will shift to protecting worthy structures rather than whole city blocks. The economic conditions when these neighborhoods were first created have changed, and the building stock needs to be updated to respond to new needs and desires. Unfortunately, historic district designation has become a preferred tool for anti-development. If this continues, this will hollow out cities and leave them unable to evolve.
I believe that recent social justice issues will increasingly influence the Uniform Land Use Review Procedure (ULURP) process and the decision makers involved. Zoning mechanisms like Mandatory Inclusionary Housing, which require developers to include affordable housing in areas rezoned to allow for more housing development, will continue and be strengthened. There may also be a renewed push for providing more public amenities such as open spaces, plus transit and streetscape improvements. At the same time, there is a heightened awareness of issues like displacement and economic inequality that may well come to dominate all other issues in the public discourse.
The ULURP process will become increasingly difficult for politicians and developers to navigate and could discourage development and the rezoning of underutilized properties. Eventually, this could lead to a renewed appreciation of the economic and social benefits of development, but probably not for a long time.
In the short term, we will see many smaller scale, private rezonings. This always happens during slowdowns in the development cycle, as rezonings unlock hidden value in properties. This can also advance social issues by allowing improvements to transit, public spaces, and affordable housing. Rezonings have a multi-year timeline and usually add more value than simply developing a new property.
Large-scale, city-sponsored rezoning will likely decrease due to budgetary constraints and lack of consensus on outcomes.
On the downside, as noted above, even small rezonings are becoming increasingly difficult and prone to legal challenges. It is difficult to say whether this countervailing force will be enough to dissuade people from undertaking the costly and time-consuming process.
David West is a founding partner of Hill West Architects with over 30 years' experience as one of New York City’s premier zoning experts.
With “architecture in his DNA,” David West is a veteran with over 30 years of experience. From the time he built model airplanes as a young boy, West has always been fascinated by the art, science, history, math, and “respecting the past” of architecture which has continued ...
7 Comments
which sections of zoning would have to be re-written? (to be more specific)
All of them; especially public review boards; all that is needed is standards for noise, smell, shadow etc that bother neighbors; when exceeded, neighbors can get redress in private court dealings. I was fortunate enough to practice architecture sixty years ago before boards were invented; we competed to build affordable housing and minimum wage earners could afford to live in decent housing
so you're just old and screaming at the computer now? thank you for all your input.
Yep! Yer well, come — help me save our planet; “if you don’t know where you’re going, you end up somewhere else” (Yogi Berra; another cof) — amazing how much wisdom one gets from people younger than themselves; ya no? Just thimk aboud id
You've still said absolutely nothing. Is that your wisdom?
Zoning is dead; it has fulfilled its sole function of segregating white people by making housing too expensive for poor blacks and denying them access if they had the money; zoning ing is the enemy of creativity because it makes rules for creativity and creativity breaks rules.its resultant sprawl has destroyed our entire planet; it is criminal activity and must be prosecuted as such; its corruption is legendary; it is a lie a sham and a delusion; it i hilarious and disgusting at the same time at every public hearing; idiots begging other idiots to listen to idiocy with idiots listening intently, marking every word; We can do so much better without it; the proof is in the pudding.
So any alternate proposals or are you just one of those lazy activists who scream a lot?
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