So, what have we got this year? Caruso St John’s Newport Gallery for Damien Hirst. Just like its galleries in Nottingham and Walsall, its location is rather uncool: Vauxhall FFS. Still—it is very, very Caruso St Johnny. Lovely staircase. Nice brickwork. Tasteful all round. Perhaps this will be their year. After all, great architects quite often win the best prizes for work that doesn’t deserve it. They’re a bit like Oscars in this respect. Point? Just like Leonardo deserved an Oscar, CSJ deserve a Stirling Prize. Could this be CSJ’s Revenant?

Next: Herzog & De Meuron’s Blavatnik School of Government in Oxford. Once again, we have a lovely staircase. Once again, we have a HdM building, which appears to have been thought through in a toddler’s nursery. “Look mummy, see how I stack the shapes!” And once again, we have a building with the kind of confidence that too few British architects can muster, partly because they prefer to tackle the big questions in life like, “London stock or Danish?” rather than experiment with form and opacity. Still, win, it will not. (Or rather shouldn’t. It’s simply not generous enough to anyone who doesn’t work there.)

Ok. What about City of Glasgow College, by Michael Laird Architects and Reiach & Hall Architects? Of course, I am biased. Reiach & Hall is Scottish. I am Scottish. Therefore Reiach & Hall should win. I am, however, only partly jesting with you. I like this effort, which I should also credit Michael Laird Architects with as well (it is in fact described officially as being I like this effort because it is a joint endeavor between two underrated firms who tend to work to far tighter budgets than their English counterpartsdesigned by Michael Laird Architects with Reiach & Hall, which suggest Laird is the design lead. But this is the second time in a row Reiach & Hall has been shortlisted, and well, MLA hasn’t made the grade before, and, despite being Scottish, I’m based in London and I can’t really be bothered to find out the details…JOKING!

As I was saying, I like this effort because it is a joint endeavor between two underrated firms who tend to work to far tighter budgets than their English counterparts, and despite these constraints (let’s be honest, working with another architect that you didn’t choose to work with is a constraint) the result is very good. A tough building that speaks to the river it’s set beside (few buildings along Glasgow’s Clyde do) that trains young people to be naval engineers. It’s real. Gritty. Like Taggart (the dear departed Glaswegian detective who looked a bit like Alex Ferguson).

There’s a house in Wales up for the gong too. It’s by a firm called Loyn & Co Architects. It’s nice. ‘Nuff said.

So. We’ve discussed the house (a bit). But what about the house-ing? dRMM’s Trafalgar Place in Elephant and Castle. It’s a flag-bearing warrior building for the so-called New London Vernacular (which basically means it’s clad in brick). It’s pretty good. But it will likely go the way of Neo-Bankside’s bid to win the prize last year—and not win it. RSHP’s exquisitely detailed hi-tech housing by the Tate didn’t stand a chance because, as most of its residents were assumed to be either oligarchs or a bit too hedge-fundy, it was tarred by critics as being the cause of most of the world’s ills. dRMM’s design is for Lend Lease, whose decant of existing residents on the site has been criticised as heavy-handed and unfair, and will probably see this project ignored by the jury too.

What’s left? Oh yeah. A revamped library in Oxford (again) by two-time winner Wilkinson Eyre. I’m sensing a hat-trick. What more do you need to know?

Rory Olcayto is director of Open House London and was a judge for last year's Stirling Prize. Jurors for the 2016 competition include Roisin Heneghan, Michael Hussey, Paul Monaghan, Patrik Schumacher, and Rachel Whiteread.