Depending on how you look at it, half the architects in michigan are either just hitting their prime or getting ready to retire. I have to assume that the rest of the country is fairly similar
Statistics for Michigan Licensed Architects from the State
Aggregate age of licensee in Michigan: 56 years (Note: there are 482 license records with no birth date or an erroneous birth date recorded)
Total number of resident Licensees: 2,772
Total number of non-resident/foreign Licensees : 2,825
Total number of 2015 licensees per age range:
20-29 years: 21
30-39 years: 365
40-49 years: 921
50-59 years : 1 744
60+: 2,064
Non Sequitur
May 17, 16 1:37 pm
who retires?
shellarchitect
May 17, 16 1:44 pm
i hear even architects retire eventually
curtkram
May 17, 16 1:51 pm
"retire" probably has a couple meanings.
Donna Sink
May 17, 16 1:58 pm
If I was under 30 and a registered architect in Michigan right now I'd be feeling pretty chuffed. Well done, Emerging Professionals!
David Cole, AIA
May 17, 16 2:05 pm
I'd be curious to see a similar set of stats for other states. I wonder if there's a big difference between states in the upper Midwest with serious brain drain issues compared to coastal states where young people are moving.
Josh Mings
May 17, 16 2:09 pm
Less than 400 young architects in that state. Damn.
Wonder how Illinois compares.
anonitect
May 17, 16 2:23 pm
David, I don't think that its as simple as "brain drain." I think that there's a general pattern of migration from smaller places to cities. I've been looking at this map of migration patterns and even in popular places like CA and WA the rural counties are losing population while cities gain (I was looking at migrants age 25-29: my guess was that people who move at this age are doing so for work/ to settle down in a desirable place, after college/grad school). Even Des Moine and Souix Falls had relatively big gains of young migrants while the rest of their states lost population.
I think that Michigan has been especially hard hit because of its dependence on skilled manufacturing jobs that have been lost to outsourcing and automation, and that the old narrative writing off the Upper Midwest (and we need better names - Great Lakes States and Great Plains?) is flawed.
shellarchitect
May 17, 16 2:46 pm
good questions david/josh, i'd like to know as well. Hopefully some aia conventioneers can fill us in!
Michigan had a one state recession from roughly 2003 until the rest of the nation joined in
Donna Sink
May 17, 16 2:56 pm
anonitect, that maps seems to show that a lot of 20-29 year olds are moving into Indianapolis and very few older people are. That seems to square with your comment.
shellarchitect
May 17, 16 3:05 pm
that is a cool map, thanks
no_form
May 17, 16 3:27 pm
looks like the big 3, nyc, chi, la, are losing or maintaining their population in that under 40 demographic. of course this data is from the 2000's. can't assume that it's current as of 2016. at any rate, it suggests that young professionals are moving to 2nd tier cities.
chigurh
May 17, 16 3:43 pm
david cole and josh mings twins?
Wilma Buttfit
May 17, 16 3:44 pm
Separated at birth. holy smokes indeed!
Josh Mings
May 17, 16 3:53 pm
I don't know about that, but David I think we met briefly at the convention in Chicago a few years back - you know Tom Allen?
May 17, 16 3:53 pm
David, I don't think that its as simple as "brain drain." I think that there's a general pattern of migration from smaller places to cities. I've been looking at this map of migration patterns and even in popular places like CA and WA the rural counties are losing population while cities gain (I was looking at migrants age 25-29: my guess was that people who move at this age are doing so for work/ to settle down in a desirable place, after college/grad school). Even Des Moine and Souix Falls had relatively big gains of young migrants while the rest of their states lost population.
I think that Michigan has been especially hard hit because of its dependence on skilled manufacturing jobs that have been lost to outsourcing and automation, and that the old narrative writing off the Upper Midwest (and we need better names - Great Lakes States and Great Plains?) is flawed.
I believe I like to see map data in shorter increments over the time period from 2000 to 2015 in 5 year blocks. Such as 2000 to 2005, 2005-2010, 2010-2015 or something close to that would show shift dynamics. I had seen some recent migration patterns showing data from 2005 and later and some of the patterns are different. In some narrower resolution of data as you pan through the years, I notice some significant movement both to big cities (because of jobs) but also more bigger dynamics to lesser regulated and less expensive areas. Texas would look hotter. Florida is hot and had been before the recession and continued to be because land is cheap and is not heavily regulated. Texas had seen some hot development and migration to that area because in Texas, it is a land of minimal regulation. Again, it had been centrally located around where the jobs are. In California, you'll notice the hot housing development is not in Los Angeles. People are migrating to new developments out in the suburban sprawl of L.A. metro area that is outside the county. Riverside and Pasadena. Since, L.A. county core area had been developed already but it gets more expensive so people on more modest income are pushed out because of the cost of living in the core so they commute longer and longer distance. This is of course broad picture and reality is more complicated. The picture show people are obviously looking to less costly places to live but close enough to work where the jobs are. Since these are actually diced up into counties, I can tell you most of San Bernadino & Riverside counties development and population is on the western half of it. You are also seeing moderate migration trend to Kern county and San Luis Obispo counties. That's where you are going to find new housing tracts because there isn't much virgin land is Los Angeles county to develop. The map only gives so much information but you can extrapolate some of what I said from the general peripheral information available online. Los Angeles metro area as with all big cities are hot places for jobs but from housing perspectives, but you can see from the map, Los Angeles county core is huge and encompasses the county but it is also progressively more expensive and the sprawl trend had been happening outside L.A. county, even when I last lived there 20+ years ago. I can just people getting jobs in L.A. but getting a home in say San Bernadino and Riverside and just commute in to work.
In some areas on the map, the population growth trend is high BUT the population is low so it really doesn't necessarily show a huge migration.
This like below might be an interest and you can look at how each state grow or shrink based on population but net migration is positive, the population is growing. When it shrinks, there is a net migration away from the state (shrinkage of population). It would been nice if it could show this at county level but okay.
Each map or cartogram or whatever tells slightly different things.
wurdan freo
May 17, 16 3:57 pm
Ha! Hahahaha.... ug.... sigh.... ha...
May 17, 16 4:05 pm
In the Forbes link, the primary source for inbound migration for the L.A. county from New England/New York area. San Bernadino and Riverside also gets a chunk of people from those states but they get alot of people exiting the core L.A. and Orange County and even San Diego county to that area with the suburban sprawl.
People are leaving the area typically to less expensive areas where they can utilize the value of their California property to buy a bigger piece of land and house or even build a bigger house for than the property they have. It's all exchange of equity. What your money can buy in different areas.
There is interesting data to show generally where people are coming from and going to.
Josh: Yes, I know Tom. He's active with the transit / urbanist crowd in Cincinnati.
no_form
May 17, 16 5:07 pm
balkins, pasadena is la county. glad to hear you take a more nuanced description of la though. last time you came out in full KKK force.
citizen
May 17, 16 5:43 pm
Why use only fifty words when a thousand will do?
May 17, 16 5:44 pm
Ok, thanks for the correction.
awaiting_deletion
May 18, 16 8:28 pm
i once took over on a job for a guy who earned his license in 1944 (he had died) but the job needed signing off or something.... his license number was somewhere around 1500 and mine from 2012 at 35000. NY
shellarchitect
May 19, 16 9:46 am
really? mine is 63,000ish from about 6 months ago. my boss is 38,000ish from 1993
awaiting_deletion
May 21, 16 10:18 am
nys?
gruen
May 21, 16 11:23 pm
I doubled my salary by leaving Michigan and never looked back.
shellarchitect
May 22, 16 12:06 pm
really? it doesn't look like mi salaries are expectionally low...
shellarchitect
May 22, 16 12:07 pm
anyone get insight regarding average architect age at the convention?
dsc_arch
Dec 8, 16 4:27 pm
here is an interesting site from the BLS. If you hover over each MSA it gives you salary information too.
Who cares if only a handful are assuming liability? There should be an index measuring the quantity of projects to the amount of license holders assuming liability for that work....
Depending on how you look at it, half the architects in michigan are either just hitting their prime or getting ready to retire. I have to assume that the rest of the country is fairly similar
Statistics for Michigan Licensed Architects from the State
Aggregate age of licensee in Michigan: 56 years (Note: there are 482 license records with no birth date or an erroneous birth date recorded)
Total number of resident Licensees: 2,772
Total number of non-resident/foreign Licensees : 2,825
Total number of 2015 licensees per age range:
20-29 years: 21
30-39 years: 365
40-49 years: 921
50-59 years : 1 744
60+: 2,064
who retires?
i hear even architects retire eventually
"retire" probably has a couple meanings.
If I was under 30 and a registered architect in Michigan right now I'd be feeling pretty chuffed. Well done, Emerging Professionals!
I'd be curious to see a similar set of stats for other states. I wonder if there's a big difference between states in the upper Midwest with serious brain drain issues compared to coastal states where young people are moving.
Less than 400 young architects in that state. Damn.
Wonder how Illinois compares.
David, I don't think that its as simple as "brain drain." I think that there's a general pattern of migration from smaller places to cities. I've been looking at this map of migration patterns and even in popular places like CA and WA the rural counties are losing population while cities gain (I was looking at migrants age 25-29: my guess was that people who move at this age are doing so for work/ to settle down in a desirable place, after college/grad school). Even Des Moine and Souix Falls had relatively big gains of young migrants while the rest of their states lost population.
I think that Michigan has been especially hard hit because of its dependence on skilled manufacturing jobs that have been lost to outsourcing and automation, and that the old narrative writing off the Upper Midwest (and we need better names - Great Lakes States and Great Plains?) is flawed.
good questions david/josh, i'd like to know as well. Hopefully some aia conventioneers can fill us in!
Michigan had a one state recession from roughly 2003 until the rest of the nation joined in
anonitect, that maps seems to show that a lot of 20-29 year olds are moving into Indianapolis and very few older people are. That seems to square with your comment.
that is a cool map, thanks
looks like the big 3, nyc, chi, la, are losing or maintaining their population in that under 40 demographic. of course this data is from the 2000's. can't assume that it's current as of 2016. at any rate, it suggests that young professionals are moving to 2nd tier cities.
david cole and josh mings twins?
Separated at birth. holy smokes indeed!
I don't know about that, but David I think we met briefly at the convention in Chicago a few years back - you know Tom Allen?
David, I don't think that its as simple as "brain drain." I think that there's a general pattern of migration from smaller places to cities. I've been looking at this map of migration patterns and even in popular places like CA and WA the rural counties are losing population while cities gain (I was looking at migrants age 25-29: my guess was that people who move at this age are doing so for work/ to settle down in a desirable place, after college/grad school). Even Des Moine and Souix Falls had relatively big gains of young migrants while the rest of their states lost population.
I think that Michigan has been especially hard hit because of its dependence on skilled manufacturing jobs that have been lost to outsourcing and automation, and that the old narrative writing off the Upper Midwest (and we need better names - Great Lakes States and Great Plains?) is flawed.
I believe I like to see map data in shorter increments over the time period from 2000 to 2015 in 5 year blocks. Such as 2000 to 2005, 2005-2010, 2010-2015 or something close to that would show shift dynamics. I had seen some recent migration patterns showing data from 2005 and later and some of the patterns are different. In some narrower resolution of data as you pan through the years, I notice some significant movement both to big cities (because of jobs) but also more bigger dynamics to lesser regulated and less expensive areas. Texas would look hotter. Florida is hot and had been before the recession and continued to be because land is cheap and is not heavily regulated. Texas had seen some hot development and migration to that area because in Texas, it is a land of minimal regulation. Again, it had been centrally located around where the jobs are. In California, you'll notice the hot housing development is not in Los Angeles. People are migrating to new developments out in the suburban sprawl of L.A. metro area that is outside the county. Riverside and Pasadena. Since, L.A. county core area had been developed already but it gets more expensive so people on more modest income are pushed out because of the cost of living in the core so they commute longer and longer distance. This is of course broad picture and reality is more complicated. The picture show people are obviously looking to less costly places to live but close enough to work where the jobs are. Since these are actually diced up into counties, I can tell you most of San Bernadino & Riverside counties development and population is on the western half of it. You are also seeing moderate migration trend to Kern county and San Luis Obispo counties. That's where you are going to find new housing tracts because there isn't much virgin land is Los Angeles county to develop. The map only gives so much information but you can extrapolate some of what I said from the general peripheral information available online. Los Angeles metro area as with all big cities are hot places for jobs but from housing perspectives, but you can see from the map, Los Angeles county core is huge and encompasses the county but it is also progressively more expensive and the sprawl trend had been happening outside L.A. county, even when I last lived there 20+ years ago. I can just people getting jobs in L.A. but getting a home in say San Bernadino and Riverside and just commute in to work.
In some areas on the map, the population growth trend is high BUT the population is low so it really doesn't necessarily show a huge migration.
This like below might be an interest and you can look at how each state grow or shrink based on population but net migration is positive, the population is growing. When it shrinks, there is a net migration away from the state (shrinkage of population). It would been nice if it could show this at county level but okay.
http://www.ravi.io/us-population-trends-cartogram.
Similar cartograms for each state at county level resolution probably exists and looking through each of them can give an interesting picture.
This one might be interesting in sensing how population is moving.
http://homepage.ntlworld.com/keir.clarke/leaflet/cities.htm
and just out of interest or curiosity:
http://www.forbes.com/special-report/2011/migration.html
Each map or cartogram or whatever tells slightly different things.
Ha! Hahahaha.... ug.... sigh.... ha...
In the Forbes link, the primary source for inbound migration for the L.A. county from New England/New York area. San Bernadino and Riverside also gets a chunk of people from those states but they get alot of people exiting the core L.A. and Orange County and even San Diego county to that area with the suburban sprawl.
People are leaving the area typically to less expensive areas where they can utilize the value of their California property to buy a bigger piece of land and house or even build a bigger house for than the property they have. It's all exchange of equity. What your money can buy in different areas.
There is interesting data to show generally where people are coming from and going to.
refractory period is over
balkins is like debbie downer.
http://www.nbc.com/saturday-night-live/video/debbie-downer/n11825
Josh: Yes, I know Tom. He's active with the transit / urbanist crowd in Cincinnati.
balkins, pasadena is la county. glad to hear you take a more nuanced description of la though. last time you came out in full KKK force.
Why use only fifty words when a thousand will do?
Ok, thanks for the correction.
i once took over on a job for a guy who earned his license in 1944 (he had died) but the job needed signing off or something.... his license number was somewhere around 1500 and mine from 2012 at 35000. NY
really? mine is 63,000ish from about 6 months ago. my boss is 38,000ish from 1993
nys?
I doubled my salary by leaving Michigan and never looked back.
really? it doesn't look like mi salaries are expectionally low...
anyone get insight regarding average architect age at the convention?
here is an interesting site from the BLS. If you hover over each MSA it gives you salary information too.
http://www.bls.gov/oes/current/oes171011.htm
David, you likely know Adam Nelson then, too.
(I think I have Deja Vu)
Who cares if only a handful are assuming liability? There should be an index measuring the quantity of projects to the amount of license holders assuming liability for that work....