Assessing the Eric Massa impact (or lack thereof)

1. Former representative Eric Massa's twin appearances on Fox News Channel's "Glenn Beck Show" and CNN's "Larry King Live" Tuesday night made for some of the most watchable political television in recent memory.

But, does the Massa mishegas (not bad, eh?) have any real impact on the current political environment? Yes and no. In the short term, the impact is fairly obvious. For Democrats, Massa's seeming unwillingness to go quietly into that good night means a week filled with distractions as the party attempts to rally behind President Obama's health care plan. For Republicans, the short-term danger is in overplaying their hand on the scandal -- either by casting themselves in a sort-of holier-than-thou pose that has been a recipe for disaster for both parties in recent years on ethics issues, or by embracing (bad word choice) Massa too closely given that there appear to be more revelations to come.

The longer term political impact (if any) of the Massa situation is tougher to gauge. Democrats insist that it will be a fleeting moment with little import to voters this fall. "It will have the lasting impact of an ice cube on the street in D.C. in the middle of summer," said Democratic consultant Chris LeHane. "Outside of a few hundred people in D.C. no one knows Massa, no one cares about Massa and no one will be talking about Massa in a few days."

Republican strategists clearly believe that Massa's fall combined with similar ethics problems for New York Gov. David Paterson and New York Rep. Charlie Rangel have the potential to turn into a major voting issue this fall. The evidence? The Republican National Committee will launch an ad today seeking to cast Democrats, who pledged to drain the swamp of ethics-related problems after taking control of the House in 2006, as hypocrites. "The impact is not so much in the sordid details of Congressman Massa's political self-immolation, but the cumulative impact as part of a recent scandal triumvirate that has disheartened Democrats and more importantly, added a layer of real political panic at the exact moment that Obama tries to close the deal on a health care vote," said Republican lobbyist Alex Vogel.

2. The Florida Republican Senate primary fight continues to grow nastier and nastier by the day. The latest development came Tuesday when the campaigns of Gov. Charlie Crist and former state House speaker Marco Rubio exchanged memos -- and rhetorical body blows -- over the state of the race.

Rubio struck first with a memo from campaign pollster Whit Ayres in which he argued that Crist's slippage in polling presents him with a "significant strategic dilemma" because he is already both well-known and well-defined to primary voters. Faced with that reality, Ayres concludes that the only path for Crist is "running a relentlessly brutal negative campaign" designed to take the bark off of Rubio. (We drew roughly the same conclusion in a post outlining the possibility of Crist running as an independent in the fall.)

Not to be outdone, the Crist forces -- led by spokeswoman Amanda Henneberg -- released a scathing statement hammering Rubio as a "Miami lobbyist-politician." "Add this to the growing list of examples of Speaker Rubio's sense of entitlement," added Henneberg. "The rules never seem to apply to him." (The Crist campaign will be smiling this morning at a St. Petersburg Times story detailing alleged pork-barrel spending by Rubio during his tenure as speaker.)

Why the level of vitriol and engagement so far in advance of the state's August 24 primary? Rubio's team clearly senses an opportunity to drive Crist from the race (or at least out of the Republican primary) and are doing everything they can to push at the national level the narrative that Crist is fading badly. This is a critical moment for Crist; he must show not only that he can stay in the race but that he has a path to victory.

3. A series of polls conducted by a coalition of conservative groups in 11 targeted Democrat-held congressional districts suggests widespread unease about the health care bill being pushed by President Obama.

The polls, which were paid for by StartOver!, a group aimed at urging the Administration to, um, start over on health care, were conducted by Dave Sackett of the Tarrance Group in Arizona's 8th, Colorado's 4th, Indiana's 9th, New Jersey's 3rd, Ohio's 1st, Ohio's 16th, Nevada's 3rd, New York's 13th, New York's 24th, Pennsylvania's 4th and Pennsylvania's 10th.

A majority of voters in ten of the 11 districts opposed Obama health care plan with the opposition strongest in Colorado's 4th, Pennsylvania's 4th and Pennsylvania's 10th (58 percent opposed) and weakest in New York's 13th district (46 percent opposed). The polling also suggested that the coming vote on health care could be critical to each of the members' reelection prospects; in seven of the 11 districts, more than four in ten voters said that how their member voted would be "extremely important" in determining their vote this fall.

The polling by StartOver! is a piece of a larger effort by conservative groups to amp up the pressure on House (and Senate) Democrats before the coming vote. American Future Fund, America's Health Insurance Plans (AHIP) and Employers for a Healthy Economy are all funding television ads in advance of the vote.

4. Illinois state Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias, the party's nominee for the state's open Senate seat, visited the White House Tuesday and picked up a somewhat tepid endorsement from press secretary Robert Gibbs. "Alexi Giannoulias is the Democratic nominee for the United States Senate and has the support and the backing of the White House," Gibbs said from the podium.

Giannoulias, a personal friend and basketball buddy of President Obama, met with senior adviser David Axelrod and political director Patrick Gaspard, according to White House aides familiar with his schedule. "My meetings at the White House have been very productive, and the support of the President is a great asset in a state where 64 percent of voters approve of the job he is doing," Giannoulias said Tuesday.

Giannoulias' trip comes amid a very difficult period for his campaign as he seeks -- with limited success -- to explain his involvement in his family's failing bank. Giannoulias sat down with the Chicago Tribune editorial board in hopes of putting the issue behind him but even Democratic strategists acknowledged that things had not gone as planned. Republicans, as a result, are growing increasingly confident about Rep. Mark Kirk's (R) chances of winning the seat being vacated by appointed Sen. Roland Burris. Sensing opportunity, the National Republican Senatorial Committee has hired Liesl Hickey, a former chief of staff to Kirk, to serve as a consultant to the organization on the Illinois race as well as a few others.

5. A Republican poll of potential 2012 Iowa GOP caucus-goers shows former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee at 17 percent to 14 percent for former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney and 11 percent for former Alaska governor Sarah Palin. No other candidate was in double digits or even close. (Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty took one percent.)

The poll, a telephone survey conducted by a company known as Right Way Marketing for the launch of the rightosphere.com blog, should be taken cum grano salis as, conducted this far from 2012, it is measuring name identification rather than actual support. And, several potential candidates -- like former House speaker Newt Gingrich -- were not included in the survey. Still, for political junkies like us, the iterations of what the field might look like and what that would do to various candidates' support level is irresistible.

Without Huckabee in the race, Romney takes 28 percent to 20 percent for Palin and Pawlenty at four percent. Without Palin, Huckabee (29 percent) and Romney (28 percent) are in a statistical dead heat. Those data affirm the conventional wisdom that Palin and Huckabee are fighting for the same bloc of social conservative voters -- a significant bloc in a Iowa Republican primary fight -- while Romney has a separate vein of support. What the poll doesn't tell us is how Pawlenty's eventual rise -- he will target the state heavily -- and the potential/likely candidacy of neighboring Sen. John Thune (S.D.) will impact the race in Iowa in 2012.

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