What will higher timber prices as a result of Trump's new tarriff mean for architecture? Dr. Warren Mabee, who is the Canada Research Chair in Renewable Energy Development and Implementation at Queen's University, told me over the phone that it will likely halt or significantly alter the design and construction of formerly ubiquitous wood-frame residences. "I think one of the big things you're going to see, particularly in the U.S., is that introducing this type of tariff or countervailing duty, is that it will drive up the price of lumber. What that will mean is that for architects who are specializing particularly in residential construction, where there is a lot of wood and wood frame that goes into it, they may find themselves limited in what they can do. So if you're building something that's on a budget or something that's going to use a lot of wood, you may find yourself in a position where the costs are now going to be substantively higher than prior to the tariff being introduced."
According to Dr. Mabee, the Canadian softwoods account for approximately 35% of the U.S. wood market. "[The tariff] can have all kinds of knock-on effects if it continues long enough," he continues. "Architects have a lot of different options, lots of different materials that they can build with. You may see some architects scaling their designs in one way or another. For very high-end clients, it probably won't make any difference at all, because they're just going to spend the money that it costs. They may not be looking at lumber per se, they may be looking at exotic species and thing like that that wouldn't be covered under this. It's more for your kind of middle-class buyer, somebody who has done what they can do, they've built up a pile of money, but not quite the Trumpian pile of money that some people might get who are looking to build their house. They've purchased a plot of land. Now they may find that they are restricted in what they can do, because typically that would be a wood frame construction and there's going to be more cost."
5 Comments
20% add to the structural frame. 4-7% add to the cost of the project?
US timber mills have been operating below capacity for over ten years because US forests are underfunded, and were over-produced in the 80's and 90's. harvests are down, beetle kill is way, way up, and there's a drought in the rocky mountain west.
if The Donald really cares about the american timber economy he'd quadruple funding for the USFS and for forestry schools and research projects.
Middle-class wood-frame houses like this will probably not be constructed as frequently as they used to be thanks to Trump's tariff.
LOL - middle-class wood-frame houses like this have not been constructed since 1885.
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