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Inverse of construction industry

May 3 '13 11 Last Comment
backbay
May 3, 13 9:05 pm

So when the construction industry tanks, what usually does well?  I've always wondered.  Maybe I'll buy stock in that.

 

Miles JaffeMiles Jaffe
May 3, 13 10:53 pm

Repo men.

geezertect
May 4, 13 10:12 am

Real estate investors like Sam Zell who specialize in workouts and distressed properties.

backbay
May 4, 13 1:45 pm

what about something completely detached from housing/buildings?

Lionel Hutz
May 4, 13 1:58 pm

Maybe I'll buy stock in that.

You're better off putting your money in a casino. At least you know the odds.

backbay
May 4, 13 5:47 pm

Well I'm just thinking that when one is down the other will start doing well, and so you're somewhat diversified.  So, you know, if you own a firm you can put money into something that will perform well when your industry is down.

At least you know the odds.  

Stocks return around 10% and if you're young and don't depend on your 401k immediately its probably one of the best investment decisions you can make.

Atom
Jun 3, 13 3:34 pm

I don't know and when I look at previous recessions the inverse is not always the same from recession to recession. How would you go about looking for the source of data to visualize the solution?  Assuming we like visual information because we are architects. Could this be answered with charts? The first chart I would start with would be the Architectural Billing Index. Then I would overlay that chart with market trends in the industries you want to compare. Figures like unemployment are easy to find on charts but those tend to go up and down along the lines of the ABI and the recessions. One would need more specific data to chart.

 

Generally, most of the market sectors go down in a recession except for the industries which make money from suffering. There probably are jobs for people who do all the foreclosure work. It isn't any secret that giant architectural firms diversify into international markets. When the domestic market is down it often goes up on another continent.

 

It generally goes like this: liquid investments make quick money, that money goes into real estate to keep it safe from the impending bubble, a region builds the tallest building then that region is in financial distress, prices drop, and the market corrects. But - so what? That leaves +/- 30% of architects in a position of seasonal employment except it isn't seasonal if it lasts 3 years.

 

If you can figure out how to get the right charts with the right data then you might be able to help a third of architects plan to have the stability of home ownership and retirement.      

Atom
Jun 3, 13 3:48 pm

https://www.google.com/finance?chdnp=1&chdd=1&chds=1&chdv=1&chvs=Linear&chdeh=0&chfdeh=0&chdet=1370288765138&chddm=1340348&q=GOOGLEINDEX_US:CONSTR&&ei=e_KsUdiXNJDqlgOO4gE

 

While this is a flaky, nascent, way to view things it is a start. I'm not saying searches are important once you step outside in the sunshine where things get built.   

Atom
Jun 3, 13 3:50 pm

https://www.google.com/finance?chdnp=1&chdd=1&chds=1&chdv=1&chvs=Linear&chdeh=0&chfdeh=0&chdet=1370288951940&chddm=1340348&q=GOOGLEINDEX_US:UNEMPL&&ei=NvOsUYCOJYbYkwPV4gE

 

Well, duh - unemployment goes up while construction goes down but we would want to test this to see if it works the way we think it should and it did. 

Atom
Jun 3, 13 3:58 pm

http://www.census.gov/epcd/mwb97/us/us.html#Universe (All Firms)

 

Census data would be where I image someone with economic analysis skills could find out. 

backbay
Jun 3, 13 7:19 pm

i guess utilities right?  like if you had two stocks in your portfolio and one was an architecture firm, i guess the other would have to be something stable in a recession like utilities.  not that there are any public architecture firms, but just in theory, to balance out the swings.

Atom
Jun 4, 13 12:19 pm

https://www.google.com/trends/explore?q=construction%2C+utillities#q=construction%2C%20%20utilities&cmpt=q

 

Utilities, by this chart, were going down in general yet stable by comparison.

 

Wait a minute. Since you have so much extra money right now you should be telling us how to be rolling in dough like you are. I don't recall the last time someone on this forum had so much money they didn't know what to do with it.

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