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trace™

So, besides the end of civilization as we know it, anyone have some insight/opinions on S&P's downgrade?

Interested in what people think about how it will alter the architecture/development/real estate worlds.  

 
Aug 6, 11 8:38 pm
drums please, Fab?

change we can believe in

Aug 6, 11 8:44 pm  · 
 · 
LOOP!

Japan has been below triple A for quite awhile but the Yen is still strong as ever and bond yields continue to be low there. Will be interesting (or terrifying) to see how the markets react on Monday. Hopefully they've had enough prior warning to price it in and there won't be a bloodbath.

It's another blow to our industry. Interest rates are bound to go up at some point, but obviously this is bad timing. It will cost more to borrow now, not just for the government but for everyone else in the US.

The market only has so many mattresses to stuff its money under though, and when things get bad, investors like to flee to US T-bills for safety. I'm interested to see if this actually drives the borrowing cost for the US gov down in the short-term, while longer-term we see people eyeing other places to park their dough. 

 

Aug 6, 11 8:51 pm  · 
 · 
won and done williams

Outside of a bruised ego, I see very little economic fallout from AA+.

Tell the Republicans to get their thumbs out of their asses, adopt Simpson-Bowles and FIX THE DAMN JOBS CRISIS!!!

Aug 6, 11 9:09 pm  · 
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FIX THE DAMN JOBS CRISIS

Build better cities.

Aug 6, 11 9:12 pm  · 
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trace™

From what I've been hearing, this will make things much worse.  Banks will be required to hold more reserves, interest rates will be higher, etc., etc., all which leads to less lending (in an already anemic market) for developments or home buyers.

 

As for "other places", I don't see that happening.  I have been reading up on some of the other historic downgrades, seems to have little lasting impact on economies (although the articles didn't state what the economies, like Japan, were doing at that exact moment).

 

I hope this pushes the idiots in washington to focus on what really matters:  f*ck%n' JOBS!!!

 

Neither party has offered anything to help, from what I've seen, nor do they ever talk about specifics (payroll tax breaks, great, give them to the employers too!  We need more ideas, though.)

 

 

Yes, let's build, dammit!!  Construction leads job recoveries and until there are some incentives for new construction, there won't be any big job recovery.

Aug 6, 11 10:33 pm  · 
 · 
zonker

Darth Boehner doesn't know what he did - He really wanted to destroy the U,S. economy, and because of his actions, SP down-rated us. – When the market tanked on Thursday, one of our clients at my office took a big hit, and downsized the scope one of our projects to fit available funds - good thing they didn't put it on hold - and they just might.
Construction loans will be harder to get, and projects will be once again as in 2008 be put on hold – and that means only the top 2% of architects will be able to stay employed and find work – There is just too many of us since the downturn of 2008 and now we have the threat of a  secondary downturn that compounds the first downturn. I was a 99ner right before I got my current job in 2010 – 14 months so far and now the threat of a new downturn?


Thanks Boehner – If I pulled some stunt like that at the office where I work(no I won’t make that change – the wall stays where it is), my boss would waste no time in posting a Craigslist add on my job - Boehner has no such fear to stop him -

Can’t wait to see the look on his face when he hands the gavel back to Pelosi


 

Aug 6, 11 11:47 pm  · 
 · 
drums please, Fab?

yeah when pelosi (and reid) took over in '07 things really started gettin' good!

YES WE DID!

Aug 6, 11 11:54 pm  · 
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Rusty!

What the downgrade meas is that assholes like FRaC will be jacking off in front of their computer screens tonight looking at their gold stock portfolio.

Aug 6, 11 11:56 pm  · 
 · 
drums please, Fab?

[the residents of Old Springfield discover gold in the river after Homer turns off the dam]
Kent Brockman: Thanks, Mayor Simpson! From now on, we'll all be taking golden showers.
[muffled laughter is heard in the background]
Kent Brockman: What?

Aug 7, 11 12:02 am  · 
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hahaha.. who's your daddy? survival of the richest decade just gone up a notch. 

Aug 7, 11 12:03 am  · 
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MixmasterFestus

Given that a lot of work dried up already, how much will this wind up affecting the architecture profession?  I get the impression that banks are basically just sitting on money and don't really expect to lend it out until things become more clear (overcorrection from the early-mid aughts, when they were throwing loans all over the place).  Also, local government work hasn't exactly been robust (depending on where you are).

It would be a lot scarier to look at a second recession if there had been an actual, meaningful rebound from the first recession.

Aug 7, 11 12:35 am  · 
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MixmasterFestus

Also, way to go conservatives, for causing two recessions in a row!  I'm not sure how serious people vote for conservatives anymore, especially since the latest crisis was basically entirely manufactured by the Tea Party and general right-wing intransigence.

Maybe some of the older people have fond memories of this Reagan guy, but for my entire 'politically aware' life, they've driven the country over a series of progressively taller cliffs (no pun intended).  I wish they'd propose more serious ideas that would actually really address problems that we have, because it would be nice to have a functional multi-party state again (and because I think the 'conservative ideology' could actually propose some constructive solutions).

Aug 7, 11 12:44 am  · 
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MixmasterFestus

(Not to discount the contributions from leaders of the other sides - y'know, left/center leaders.  I suppose I notice the rightward contributions to this mess more, since they are more 'in my face' than others.)

I think my general frustration (and maybe, that of others?) stems from the fact that people don't really work out - and then implement - constructive solutions for our problems.  Maybe it's some kind of lingering leftovers from the 'culture war', where the enemies are actually fellow Americans who are the 'wrong' kind of Americans.

So I wonder (since, as the old cliche goes, if you're not part of the solution, you're part of the problem), what can we, as architects, do to propose or suggest constructive solutions?  These things are ultimately larger than us, but we must surely be able to have some kind of a voice.

Community involvement?  Daring new proposals to your local town that can provide some kind of 'growth vision'?  Anyone actively involved in anything like this?

Aug 7, 11 1:12 am  · 
 · 
trace™

I don't know how anyone can vote for a party that supports tax breaks for the wealthy, all the while cutting unemployment, education, etc.  BUT I do know people buy into this "tax hikes" crap and think everyone will be hit.  

I look at the nut baggers move as a gamble.  They know they won't have a chance, not if things ever came back (nothing extreme would), so causing some kind of turmoil in the economy is the best road to their success.

As McConnell pronounced "The single most important thing we want to achieve is for President Obama to be a one-term president."

To hell with the economy, the well being of the citizens, or anything that really matters.  

 

 

 

As for lending, I think what this could do is simply prolong any recovery for ages.  Things were horribly uncertain before, then the plummet of last week (thank GOD jobless numbers were decent), this will just compound everything.  Like a wounded fighter, getting up the second time is a lot harder than the first.

I pray this is all an overreaction and everything is just dandy.  Maybe we might even get a speech about what can and will be done for jobs and not some talking points aimed at the other party (both parties are to blame here)

Aug 7, 11 1:13 am  · 
 · 
Rusty!

MaxministerFicus,

It's not the conservatives who are to be blamed here. It's the baby boomers man!

The racist, homophobic, anti-urban, me-first, faux-religious, world-revolves-around-my-asshole boomers are taking the victory lap here. They seem quite happy with the scorched-earth policy.

We will have the last laugh though.

Twenty years from now when you see an 80 year old begging for stale bread crumbs and pottable water, do make a point of pissing on their face.

Aug 7, 11 1:27 am  · 
 · 
vado retro

S&P hmmmm. I seem to remember them continually giving triple A ratings to all those wonderful CDO's that managed to kneecap our economy. 

Aug 7, 11 8:38 am  · 
 · 
trace™

The irony/timing is quite something, isn't it?  You really have to question their motivations for doing things now.

Aug 7, 11 8:45 am  · 
 · 

what I have heard from people more intimately involved in financial matters (professionally) is that this downgrade was already expected and thus (hopefully) already priced into markets fluctuations this last week....

Even if so it does seem noteworthy that the news was released late Friday at end of business week....

Aug 7, 11 11:06 am  · 
 · 

+++++

Aug 7, 11 1:58 pm  · 
 · 
quizzical

@ rusty: The racist, homophobic, anti-urban, me-first, faux-religious, world-revolves-around-my-asshole boomers are taking the victory lap here. They seem quite happy with the scorched-earth policy.

Well, I'm a 'baby boomer' and I'm horrified by the downgrade, the actions of the Republican Party and the insanity of the Tea Party. The vast majority of my friends share views similar to my own.  And, I embrace none of the stereotypical descriptors you include in your rant above. You might want to be more careful with your generalizations in future.

You also might want to remember that the baby-boom generation was out-in-front on the civil rights and anti-war issues of the late 60's / early 70s.

 

Aug 7, 11 2:32 pm  · 
 · 
urbanity

rusty has described my father to a tee. my father is also pro war and anti-civil rights. i have nothing in common with my father, but some of my siblings do. i will also add, while he is socially conservative, he is fiscally irresponsible and thinks of his children as his property.

i grew up and live in southern california. outside of the city of los angeles, long beach and the city of san diego, rusty's descriptor is unfortunately accurate.

Aug 7, 11 3:45 pm  · 
 · 

what angers me the most about the past two weeks is that neither party did anything worth a shite to actually address our problem. NOBODY'S SPENDING MONEY!

 

i'll lay blame, as most do, at the feet of the financial jihadists in the republican party for basically promising to blow up the economy unless (wah) they got their way. i'll blame the democrats for being absolutely feckless and reactive - where the hell is the 'daddy' in that group???

 

the problem is, with this deal, we're not going to move forward very quickly (actually, since we weren't moving forward much, this just nails yet another foot to the floor). i'd really love to see this shake some pragmatism into our government, but the despair i have is that all we're in for is more entrenchment unless every single one of them is voted out next time around (and, with the way districts have been carved up - and will be carved up this year - it's actually encouraging even more polar positions, on both sides, so...)

 

what i really miss is this kind of wisdom finding it's way into the body politic: "The best we can hope for is an athletic Fed response, along with targeted, leveraged programs from Congress that might help to counter shrinking government spending across the board. Take infrastructure investment. Right now, the unemployment rate in the construction sector is around 20 percent. The world's investors are charging the United States just 2.47 percent to borrow for 10 years—less than at any time since the 1950s. The country would be crazy not to fix its bridges and repair its roads for those costs now, rather than doing so later, when labor and financing will be more expensive. It won't necessarily get us out of the recession that we might be in. But it sure would help."

 

yup, wouldn't it be nice...

Aug 7, 11 3:54 pm  · 
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NOBODY'S SPENDING MONEY!

how are you going to spend something you don't have

 

marc cooper: Chaos: The New Normal

"The deeper problem we face is not the rather sterile debate over whether Barack Obama has any backbone or not. It rather should be a debate, a challenge, amongst and to the American people over whether we want to continue living in a society of gross economic inequality and simply waltz into the abyss or if we want to come to our senses and fight for basic social justice and a future for our children."

Aug 7, 11 4:52 pm  · 
 · 
zonker

We need to show backbone - and fight to level the playing field - Obama capitulated to Boehener and it is once again on our backs - we need to take things into our own hands or suffer permanent and severe consequences.

Aug 7, 11 5:07 pm  · 
 · 
Rusty!

quiz, of course not all boomers are dicks. It's just that most are. It's like Red Sox fans. Sure, you may find a Sox fan that's not annoying. Whoopty do.

If boomers were taken out of the political equation (both the good and the bad ones), we would be so much better off now. 

The boomers of the 60's aren't as great as you'd like to think. The hippies (civil-rights and anti-war ones) made up for a tiny fraction of the generation. 10%? The rest of boomers were dicks even back then.

quiz, you gotta admit your generation kind of sucks. Maybe mine sucks as well, but we haven't proven that yet. We can't get into positions of power. Boomers have them all.

Aug 7, 11 5:43 pm  · 
 · 

My point with the building better cities is that— even if you were to change all policy to be extremely pro-business— there's a fair amount of incorporated and unincorporated cities, towns and communities in the U.S. that lack the basic infrastructure to create new business.

Perhaps one of the biggest issues is parking and good parking at that. If the government were to give every single incorporated town and city it's own parking garage, it would only cost about $117,000,000,000. That would provide about 9,425,000 parking spaces in 19,500 garages in an urban setting.

If the revenue generated off the parking garage is enough to keep it maintained and pay for just overhead, that $117,000,000,000 is only a modest $3,900,000,000 a year. Or $12 a year per person. That $12 a year per person would allow for the opening of a dozen small businesses, two dozen townhomes, a few small restaurants and an office building.

But, this all requires sewage, too. We could directly and indirectly subsidize parking but it's up to business property tax and sales taxes to pay for sewerage. Unfortunately, we're going to have to build both parking and sewerage before anyone sets up shop.

In the grand scheme of things (looking at the federal budget overall), basic urban improvements are not significant expenses. And without tax increases or significant budget reductions, the only way to make more money is to become more productive. Unfortunately, we can only become more productive through infrastructure.

Aug 7, 11 6:03 pm  · 
 · 
zonker

collaboration is key - it's time for the Millennials to take over - they have both the smarts and collaborativre abilities needed for the future -  This was demonstrated many times in architecture studio and at work.

Aug 7, 11 6:09 pm  · 
 · 
drums please, Fab?

it's time for the Millennials to take over - they have both the smarts and collaborativre abilities needed for the future -  This was demonstrated many times in architecture studio and at work.

LOL

Aug 7, 11 6:32 pm  · 
 · 
snook_dude

Folks, it is August when Wall Street goes on Vacation!  No one is minding the store this month.  They are either on Marthas Vineyard or Nantucket, or in the Hamptons kicking back, wacking balls and drinking cocktails. We will not have any real idea as to what is going on until after Labor Day in September.  Oh ya all of the politicals are also on vacation this month and mostly not vacationing in their own backyard. Most likely on a Junket at the cost of the taxpayers.  You know alot of them are in Italy.....wanting to prop up their economy and what a better way than to spend a week in Tuscany.

Aug 7, 11 8:40 pm  · 
 · 
Ryan002

I think S&P's decision will have a positive effect on America as a whole. It will encourage Republicans and Democrats to put aside their political quibbles, and realize that they need to act not just for the good of their country, but for the good of the global economy as a whole. 

Whilst there are some rather confused individuals in the American legislature at the moment, I'm sure this wake up call will result in a culling; a trimming of all the useless fat (unproductive politicians) that clogs the arteries of American government. 

Historically, America has always been a strong finisher, acting best under extreme pressure. I think the past three decades and a sort of Pax Americana has resulted in a momentary laxity, and that's all that S&P is picking up on. Now that they can see what's going, I'm sure they're already getting their act together. 

Aug 7, 11 10:53 pm  · 
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Generation We: the biggest generational voting block - larger than the boomers, who are dying off - will be able to vote in 2016.  The part of me that still feels optimistic thinks things will start to change in 2016, if it doesn't all burn down by then!

Aug 8, 11 10:55 am  · 
 · 
drums please, Fab?

young voters are, for the most part, stupid and easily swayed by simplistic promises.  thank God they usually don't vote.

Aug 8, 11 11:16 am  · 
 · 

FRaC, you and I are hanging around with different teenagers, obviously.  The teens I know are wicked curious, smart, and actually care.

Aug 8, 11 11:22 am  · 
 · 
Emilio

Downgraded? 

more like degraded, which is how I feel when I look at the actions of most of my fellow humans (and forget useless categories like politicians or boomers or millenials or what the fuck have you, it's across the board and we're all to blame).

Aug 8, 11 12:57 pm  · 
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Emilio

...except for the very young, but they'll be ruined soon enough....

Aug 8, 11 1:09 pm  · 
 · 

is it ok to blame the tea party members in congress yet? someone please explain to me how this is not a direct consequence of their incompetence?

Aug 8, 11 6:21 pm  · 
 · 
trace™

It is ok.  Part of me wants to continue to bitch about it, but that won't help anything now.

 

So what do we do??  Clearly, the administration needs to make some clear efforts to encourage business, encourage investing, build and hire.

 

Personally, I think everyone will be in jeopardy of losing their seats after this mess.  Again, TP'ers gambled big (and continue to do so), and that's given them more power.  If this mess continues, there's a good chance Obama won't get elected again (not that the TP'ers will gain more power, but Obama needs to step up)

 

**more ranting**  Obama and Co. should have come out with something positive, not just complaining (although clearly pointing out the #1 Stalemate with the TP'ers and #2 S&P blatant quote stating that increasing taxes on the wealthy is a necessary step towards improvement!!  Where are the quotes??)

Aug 8, 11 6:57 pm  · 
 · 
drums please, Fab?

no matter what some agency may say, you’ve always been and always will be AAA archinectors.

Aug 8, 11 7:19 pm  · 
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snook_dude

THE BIG BOYS AND GIRLS....ARE MAKING ALOT OF MONEY WHILE ON VACATION!....sigh.....

If you don't belive me call your senator or representative and see if they are in Washington this month.  Then  google every Wall Street Person and see if they are their or  out Wacking Balls!  No one is Home minding the Store.

Aug 8, 11 7:26 pm  · 
 · 
drums please, Fab?

omg snooki it's so true!

Aug 8, 11 7:31 pm  · 
 · 
Rusty!

Frac:"young voters are, for the most part, stupid and easily swayed by simplistic promises.  thank God they usually don't vote."

Yeah. The older voters are beacons of intelligence. All of 'em.

Frac, your obsession with obama is borderline sexual. Most irrational hatred have a root of sexual oppression, I guess.

You have very little to contribute to most threads, but when a topic pops up that could even remotely be tied back to the president your wee wee goes full throttle. 

Just ask him out already.

Aug 8, 11 7:49 pm  · 
 · 
quizzical

You know what folks, we ALL - young and old alike - elected this group of clowns. Things won't change until we ALL wise up and start putting people in office who are serious about managing the affairs of this country in a wise and responsible manner.

Aug 8, 11 8:24 pm  · 
 · 

I like the Buffet solution: if govt debt service is ever over 3% of GDP then politicians cannot be reelected. Then the crazy tea party candidates would have to base their vote on actual economic performance rather than (ill-informed) principles. This country has a revenue problem, not  just a spending problem...really.

Aug 8, 11 8:37 pm  · 
 · 

All candidates (and incumbents) are vetted, pre-approved and funded by the corporate-financial-complex. The last election, which Republicans took as a "mandate", was just another "vote the bums out" race, and look at what we got (astroturf teabaggers).

Ballot voting is not the solution. Voting with your wallet is the only chance.
 

 

Aug 8, 11 8:47 pm  · 
 · 
Rusty!


Voting with your wallet is also sadly an illusion. Most of your money is spoken for long before you even earn it.

Anyways, what's a wallet? You sound rich.

Aug 8, 11 8:56 pm  · 
 · 
metal

the new world order is arriving. the US better wake up

Ron Paul 2012

Aug 8, 11 9:35 pm  · 
 · 
trace™

S&P  "tax the rich to stabilize" David Beers, Head of Global Sovereign Ratings

 

I was kinda shocked when I heard it so blatantly stated.  

 

Why dont' we see billboards about this?  Why do people keep supporting giving tax breaks to the wealth..er..."job creators"??

 

 

If RP is correct, then we better all be buying guns, canned food and planning to fight in the streets.  Some great points, but more or less pretty damn crazy.

 

Aug 9, 11 9:32 am  · 
 · 
Rusty!

"Ron Paul 2012"

I used to dig Ron a while ago. Didn't care for his ideologies, but his voting record was pretty impressive (it was more pragmatic than idealistic). The man at least believed in what he was saying. 

I thought we could use more people like him. But then he spawned the Tea Party, and nooooooooooooooooooooooo! We do not need more people like Ron Paul. One's enough.

Is it too late for him to abort Rand? it's only 10 thousandth trimester. I'm sure it's legal in California.

Aug 9, 11 10:05 am  · 
 · 
toasteroven

what I don't understand is that after the debt deal stocks take a nosedive and everyone is investing in treasuries, i.e. US debt - the exact thing that the S&P downgraded.  so - the US govt is a safer bet than private (publicly traded) companies?

 

What I'm getting from all of this is that maybe the private sector actually needs the government to raise revenues and spend money right now, not cut back.  which also doesn't make sense to me because I thought wall-street types were republicans...

Aug 9, 11 10:08 am  · 
 · 
toasteroven

Why dont' we see billboards about this?  Why do people keep supporting giving tax breaks to the wealth..er..."job creators"??

 

it's ayn rand's fault.

Aug 9, 11 10:22 am  · 
 · 

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