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Nonresidential construction spending ticks up slightly following February decline

2024-05-01T15:40:00-04:00

An analysis of U.S. Census Bureau data from the Associated Builders and Contractors (ABC) has shown nonresidential construction spending to have increased moderately by 0.2% in March. It follows February's decline of 1.0%. On a seasonally adjusted annualized basis, nonresidential spending now totals $1.19 trillion.

Spending was up in 10 of the 16 nonresidential subcategories on a monthly basis. Private nonresidential spending increased 0.2%, while public nonresidential construction spending expanded by 0.8%. The market for residential construction, conversely, was shown to have decreased by 0.7% over February.

"Nonresidential construction spending rebounded in March, ending a streak of two straight monthly declines," ABC's Chief Economist Anirban Basu said. "The increase was entirely due to increased public construction spending; private sector nonresidential spending dipped slightly lower in March. Despite wavering over the first three months of 2024, nonresidential spending is now...

Construction input prices climb 0.4% in March

2024-04-12T11:42:00-04:00

A new analysis of the latest U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Producer Price Index data from the Associated Builders and Contractors (ABC) has shown an increase in the cost of construction input prices of 0.4% for March.

In the month, nonresidential construction input prices increased by 0.4%. Both overall and nonresidential construction input prices are 1.7% higher than they were a year ago.

The overall increase came despite declines in the cost of energy inputs, with natural gas prices down 37%, unprocessed energy materials down 6.9%, and crude petroleum down 0.8%.

Chart credit: Associated Builders and Contractors

“There has been growing evidence of resurfacing inflationary pressures in the nation’s nonresidential construction segment during the past two months,” said ABC Chief Economist Anirban Basu. “Were it not for declines in energy prices, the headline figure for construction input price dynamics would have been meaningfully higher. A new set of supply chain issues is emerging,...

Nonresidential construction spending declines 1.0% for February, according to new ABC analysis

2024-04-03T12:53:00-04:00

Spending on nonresidential construction declined 1.0% in February to a seasonally adjusted total of $1.179 trillion, according to an Associated Builders and Contractors (ABC) analysis of data published this week by the U.S. Census Bureau.

The figures showed a decrease in spending for 15 of the 16 nonresidential subcategories on a monthly basis. Private nonresidential spending fell 0.9%, while public nonresidential construction spending was down 1.2% in February.

“Virtually every nonresidential construction segment experienced a decline in spending in February,” said ABC Chief Economist Anirban Basu. “In certain instances, the monthly decline was sharp, including health care (-2.2%), commercial (-1.9%) and water supply (-1.8%). The optimist will likely shrug off both the January and February nonresidential construction spending declines as merely reflecting winter weather. The pessimist will proclaim this release a wake-up call to contractors and an indication that higher interest r...

Rental apartment construction in the U.S. is at a 50-year high

2023-09-07T13:03:00-04:00

New rental apartment construction in the United States is expected to top a 50-year high in 2023. According to a report by RentCafe, nearly 461,000 units are expected to be delivered across the U.S. this year, meaning that over the past three years, 1.2 million units will have been built and brought to the market.

According to RentCafe’s analysis of Yardi Matrix data, the number of deliveries is expected to remain high until 2025, at which point the impact of current economic uneasiness will filter through to construction.

The New York metro area leads the country in terms of apartment construction, with 33,000 units to be opened in 2023. Almost one-third of the apartments will be located in Brooklyn (9,825), followed by Queens (4,430) and Manhattan (3,770).

Beyond New York, the Dallas metro area is the second most active, with 23,659 new rental units to come to market. The Dallas metro area has seen the most new apartments opened over the last three years, at 76,660 units. Other st...

Nonresidential construction spending shows marginal growth in ABC analysis

2023-09-05T14:56:00-04:00

National nonresidential construction spending saw a modest rise of 0.1% in July, according to a new analysis by the Associated Builders and Contractors (ABC) of U.S. Census Bureau data. When adjusted for seasonality on an annualized basis, nonresidential spending stood at $1.08 trillion, marking a 16.5% increase from the previous year.

The report found that of the 16 nonresidential subcategories, eight recorded an uptick in spending on a month-over-month basis. Private nonresidential spending showed an increase of 0.5%, while public nonresidential construction spending saw a decline of 0.4%.

“After today’s jobs report, which indicated that nonresidential construction added an outsized number of jobs in August, one would have expected a strong construction spending growth number as well,” said ABC Chief Economist Anirban Basu in a statement. “Alas, the economic data, just like the economy, continue to be full of surprises. In July, nonresidential construction spending barely expanded...

Leveling construction material costs and supply chain relief may signal inflation cooling, new report finds

2023-08-14T16:55:00-04:00

The latest Associated Builders and Contractors (ABC) analysis of U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Producer Price Index data indicates that increasingly stable construction materials prices and recent supply chain improvements over the past few months may signal "positive economic outcomes" within the United States, Construction Dive reports.

"Goods prices continue to stagnate in the context of improved supply chains and a sluggish global economy," ABC Chief Economist Anirban Basu explained in the analysis. "It has been the improvement of supply chains that best explains recent positive economic outcomes in the U.S. economy. As supply chains have normalized, unmet demand has been more readily satisfied. That has propelled transactional volume and economic growth."

Image source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics via the ABC (Aug 2023).

"At the same time," Basu continued, "the improved supply chain has helped push prices lower, contributing to the disinflation observable both in yesterday’...

AIA Chief Economist Kermit Baker looks into the financial headwinds and construction activity for the remainder of 2023

2023-07-27T19:27:00-04:00

The report that we just released is showing spending for the year up 20%. So, we’ve obviously seen a much stronger first half of the year than was anticipated. And that’s reflected in the current projection for 2023 as a whole. Since we’ve seen such a strong first half, the consensus is not for more acceleration in the second half. The consensus seems to be that strength is behind us and we’ll begin to moderate as we move into the second half of the year.

Baker predicts institutional construction will remain strong for the rest of this year, bolstered mainly by healthcare. Other sectors he expects to see a rebound include hospitality, K-12, and warehouses, albeit at a dampened pace for the third. He also mentions the new AIA Consensus Construction Forecast predicting a slight (1.7%) contraction in spending for 2024, along with another slight acceleration in institutional, and says both are likely to be exacerbated by the combined effects of inflation and other cost-related factors.

Explore related AEC economic news reported in June and July on Archinect below:

Nonresidential construction spending rises by nearly 1% in November, driven by boosts in manufacturing and conservation projects

2023-01-06T12:46:00-05:00

According to a recent analysis of U.S. Census Bureau data by the Associated Builders and Contractors (ABC), national nonresidential construction spending rose 0.9% in November. On a seasonally adjusted annualized basis, spending in this sector totaled $930.1 billion for the month.

Across the 16 nonresidential subcategories, nine saw increases in spending over the month. Subcategories that experienced dips in spending in November include: commercial, health care, communication, highway and street, amusement and recreation, public safety, and water supply. While spending in these areas fell, each except communication saw growth over 12 months. Notable growth came in the manufacturing and conservation and development subcategories, which led the group with 6.4% and 14.6% increases, respectively. Additionally, private nonresidential spending was up 1.7%, while public nonresidential spending fell 0.1% in November.

Image courtesy of Associated Builders and Contractors

“The average nonresi...

Spending on NYC construction reaches new record heights despite housing lags

2022-10-25T12:28:00-04:00

Construction spending in New York City will reach an all-time high of $86 billion this year, up $38 billion from 2021, according to a new report from the New York Building Congress. The report finds that despite numerous obstacles from the pandemic and economic uncertainty, construction spending and infrastructure investment in New York City remain positive.

The influx of capital, unfortunately, has not impacted the city’s most critical area of need as it was recently reported to have fallen short of its planned goals to construct 25,000 units of affordable housing by 36%. The New York Building Congress says the shortfall will only get worse as a result of the absence of the 421a tax incentive program. Without it, the 560,000 units needed before 2030 seem unlikely. Current projections only have 90,000 units coming into the market in the next three years.

Image source: 2022-2024 New York City Construction Outlook

“The city’s population has increased by more than 625,000 in the previous decade, while we have added only 206,000 units,” the group's CEO Carlo Scissura explains in the report. “That is not only unsustainable, it’s alarming — and justifies a swift and decisive response.”

Nonresidential construction spending increased by 0.8% in July, carried by gains in public projects

2022-09-09T11:55:00-04:00

National nonresidential construction spending has increased by a modest 0.8% in July, according to an analysis of government spending data from the U.S. Census Bureau by Associated Builders and Contractors (ABC). On a seasonally adjusted annualized basis, nonresidential spending totaled $847.6 billion last month.

Spending increased on a monthly basis in 13 of the 16 nonresidential subcategories, with declines in sewage and waste disposal, water supply, and health care. Spending on highways and streets and public safety saw the largest jumps over the month, up 4.4% and 2.3%, respectively. Public safety, however, is still down 4.7% over the last year.

Gains in public nonresidential spending helped keep the nonresidential sector positive in July, even while overall construction spending fell 0.4% last month.

Image courtesy of Associated Builders and Contractors

“The nonresidential sector continues to grapple with rising borrowing costs, elevated materials and labor costs and pervasiv...

Nonresidential construction index hits 12-year high

2021-05-11T13:57:00-04:00

The Dodge Momentum Index, which rose 8.6% in April, is now at a 12-year high, led by a 77% climb in the institutional category over the last three months. But that positive, which gauges the initial planning of projects and usually precedes actual construction spending by 12 months, was countered by current challenges of soaring material costs and obstinate workforce shortages in the larger construction industry [...]

According to the most recent Dodge Momentum Index, the April score of 162.4 signals the highest reading in over a decade and suggests a continued recovery of construction spending for nonresidential building projects.

"Healthcare and laboratory projects continue to dominate the sector, pushing institutional planning 50% higher on a year-over-year basis," the report states. "Conversely, the commercial component has slipped in recent months as fewer warehouse projects have entered planning, though the sector is 21% higher than in April 2020. Overall, the Momentum Index is 31% higher than last April, which was the first full month of COVID-19 shutdowns."

Nonresidential construction to show modest growth for 2020, 2021

2020-01-27T16:39:00-05:00

According to a recently published economic report from the American Institute of Architects (AIA), the nation's nonresidential construction sector is expected to see growth of "just 1.5 percent through 2020," with a "less than a one percent increase" projected for 2021.

The report does little to either worsen or assuage long-running fears that a recession may take hold sometime during 2020, and instead offers anemic growth projections for the coming two years.

The Forecast

The prognostication comes from the so-called Consensus Construction Forecast created by AIA that combines economic forecasts for different market sectors from a panel made up of leading market entities, including Moody's, Wells Fargo, and Dodge Data & Analytics.

For the coming year, the consensus forecast envisions relatively strong growth for the education (3.9%), office (3.0%) and institutional (2.9%) segments, with the strongest growth coming from so-called "public safety" projects, which are projected to grow...

Construction activity tumbles 11% in October

2019-11-18T18:56:00-05:00

According to a recently published report from Dodge Data & Analytics, a broadly based slowdown in the construction industry registered an 11% drop in construction starts for the month of October.

The report finds that the American economy generated $696.3 billion in construction spending in October, a sharp drop from the previous month's total that has rendered a 4% drop in construction activity overall when comparing the first 10 months of 2018 and 2019, respectively. Let's break down some of the figures in the report.

Rendering of the Consolidated Rent-A-Car Facilited at LAX designed by AC Martin. Image courtesy of Los Angeles World Airports.

Nonresidential Building Construction

Nonresidential building dropped 20% over the month of October, falling to $225.8 billion in total economic output.

According to the report, the relative decline is due, in part, to the fact that September saw "very strong" construction start numbers from a series of significant projects that began const...

America's construction activity continues to show mixed signals

2019-10-13T15:00:00-04:00

"Construction spending in the commercial category, which encompasses retail space among other segments, is down nearly 12% on a year-over-year basis. Spending related to lodging, including new hotel construction, was down 0.7% for the month and is up less than 4% year over year. Spending in the power segment also decreased in August and is down 3.5% compared to the same time last year."

A recent report from the Associated Builders and Contractors (ABC) looking at construction activity year-over-year shows a slight increase in construction spending for the year ending in August 2019. Total construction spending rose 0.3-percent relative to the same point in 2018, resulting in $773.8 billion of economic activity.

The report shows that private nonresidential spending is down nearly 2.8-percent from August 2018 while public non-residential construction spending is up 4.8-percent for the year.

ABC chief economist Anirban Basu tells Building Design + Construction, “All of this is consistent with a slowing economy, especially as measures such as industrial production and capacity utilization remain stagnant."

Basu added, “While this could be attributed to trade wars and a slowing global economy, construction dynamics are rarely so simple. Another likely explanation is that America’s growing shortage of skilled construction workers has driven up the cost of delivering c...

Is a decline in U.S. government spending hurting infrastructure?

2018-09-10T16:14:00-04:00

In the second quarter of this year, investment spending by the federal government dropped below 1.4 percent of gross domestic product for the first time since the 1940s, according to the latest data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis. OK, at 1.397 percent, it wasn’t much below, and federal government investment as a share of GDP isn’t exactly a closely watched economic indicator. But the decline through the decades is still pretty striking...

Justin Fox tracks the decline in U.S. government spending over the years, noting infrastructure investments have largely been replaced with spending on social insurance programs. With private investors taking the lead, Fox argues U.S. infrastructure suffers as there are many vital projects which private investors will never touch.

AIA Consensus Construction Forecast predicts accelerated growth through 2019

2018-01-29T14:28:00-05:00

Construction spending for nonresidential buildings is projected to increase 4 percent this year and continue at that pace of growth through 2019. While the commercial construction sectors will generate much of the expected gains this year, by 2019 the industrial and institutional sectors will dominate the projected construction growth. [...] However, in the face of a supportive economy, construction spending on nonresidential buildings disappointed last year.

The American Institute of Architects has published its latest Consensus Construction Forecast, and it's looking quite rosy. Despite labor shortages and rising material costs that continue to have an impact on the construction industry, the report — supported by the last few editions of the Institute's monthly Architecture Billings Index — projects a 4% increase for nonresidential buildings this year and a continuation of this pace through 2019.

Analyzing this economic optimism, the AIA points out five key factors:

Rebuilding and repairs from natural disasters
Tax reform implications for construction
Possibility of an infrastructure package
Strong consumer and business confidence levels
Leading economic indicators for the construction sector

For the full report and an interactive version of the infographic above, head over to aia.org.

Can these positive projections be felt in your firm or region as well? Let us know in the comment section below.

AIA's Consensus Construction Forecast downgrades expectations for 2017 and 2018

2017-07-24T15:51:00-04:00

Entering 2017, construction forecasters were quite optimistic about the near-term outlook for the industry. [...] However, as of the mid-year 2017 update, the grounds of this euphoria are evaporating. [...] key elements of the Trump administration’s legislative agenda have made almost no progress. [...] As a result, the AIA Consensus Construction Forecast panel is predicting slower growth for the construction industry for the remainder of 2017 and through 2018.

"The slower estimated growth for 2017 is expected to continue through 2018. Overall spending growth is currently projected by the Consensus Forecast panel at 3.6 percent for next year, down modestly from the 4.9 percent forecast entering this year. Commercial construction is expected to perform closest to prior expectations, with the 4.0 percent expected growth in spending for 2018 down less than 0.5 percentage points from the late-2016 forecast. Industrial construction is now likely to see very modest 1.1 percent growth next year, down from the prior expectations of 3.3 percent, while the institutional outlook has dropped from the 5.8 percent forecast of six months ago to 4.1 percent with the current projections."

For the full report and an interactive version of the infographic above, head over to aia.org.

AIA's Consensus Construction Forecast projects continued but moderate growth in 2017

2016-07-26T12:44:00-04:00

After a strong 2015, there is a growing sense that the construction industry expansion will be more tempered over the next eighteen months. [...] The American Institute of Architects’ (AIA) semi-annual Consensus Construction Forecast, a survey of the nation’s leading construction forecasters, is projecting that spending will increase just less than six percent for 2016, with next year’s projection being an additional 5.6% gain.

“Healthy job growth, strong consumer confidence and low interest rates are several positive factors in the economy, which will allow some of the pent-up demand from the last downturn to go forward,” said AIA Chief Economist, Kermit Baker, PhD, Hon. AIA. “But at the same time, the slowing in the overall economy could extend to the construction industry a bit – with the biggest drop off expected in the industrial facility sector over the next year and a half.”

For the full report and an interactive version of the infographic above, head over to aia.org.

US construction spending falls for second month in a row

2016-07-01T13:01:00-04:00

According to a report from Reuters, construction spending fell in American for the second month in a row, following a steep 2% drop in April. April's drop was the largest since January 2011.

The US Commerce Department states that May construction spending dropped 0.8%. The drop indicates that "the growth outlook is still mixed as the effects of Britain's decision to leave the European Union become more apparent."

"Private construction spending fell by 0.3 percent after a downwardly revised 1.9 percent fall in April," Reuters reports.

Public spending dropped 2.3%, primarily in state and local projects, which account for the largest segment of public sector construction spending. Meanwhile, federal construction spending rose 7.5%.

For more economic updates, check out some recent news stories:

Why American infrastructure funding keeps facing such an uphill battle

2016-04-18T14:19:00-04:00

Infrastructure was once at the heart of American public policy. Works such as the Los Angeles Aqueduct, Hoover Dam, and the Interstate Highway System transformed the economy. Today, we spend significantly less, as a share of G.D.P., on infrastructure than we did fifty years ago [...] polls show that infrastructure spending is popular with a majority of voters across the income spectrum. Historically, it enjoyed bipartisan support from politicians, too. If it’s so popular, why doesn’t it happen?

Construction Spending Reaches Its Highest Level Since 2009

2014-06-03T21:11:00-04:00

Construction spending posted modest gains in April, driven by an uptick in home building and government construction that lifted total activity to the highest level since March 2009. Spending rose 0.2 percent in April to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $953.5 billion [...].